GDT: Braves @ Mutts Game 1 6/21

[bravesfanforlife88]

Acuna RF
Freeman 1B
Albies 2B
Almonte LF
Riley 3B
Swanson SS
Heredia CF
Smith C
Muller P

Villar 3B
Lindor SS
Smith LF
Alonso 1B
Pillar RF
Peraza 2B
Almora Jr CF
Nido C
deGrom P


7 inning game, we have a rookie on the mound, they have their ace on a historic pace.....we are bound to win this one.

[50PoundHead]

Will we win? I'm mull(er)ing over that question.

[msstate7]

Degrom seems to leave early in half his starts, so maybe he makes a 3rd inning exit today

[jpx7]

Somehow the Braves will beat deGrom and then find a way to lose against Undecided.

[50PoundHead]

Somehow the Braves will beat deGrom and then find a way to lose against Undecided.

I hear Undecided's spin rate is the best in the bigs. Probably due to Spider Tack.

[thewupk]

All jokes aside. I expect degrom to no hit us.

[Enscheff]

I'm glad Ian is pitching the 2nd game. This provides the best chance to split this DH, which is a good outcome on a day deGrom is pitching.

[msstate7]

All jokes aside. I expect degrom to no hit us.

FF is going extra base in this game at some point

[bravesfanforlife88]

I'm glad Ian is pitching the 2nd game. This provides the best chance to split this DH, which is a good outcome on a day deGrom is pitching.

Agreed 100%. I am leaving today for Panama City Beach, so it sucks I don't get to see Muller pitch, but i'm excited to see this kids future

[msstate7]

I really hope the Mets' pitching dominance has been aided by spin juice.

[NYCBrave]

I really hope the Mets' pitching dominance has been aided by spin juice.

Interestingly enough, today is the first day that umpires will start checking pitchers. And I believe that managers can ask to have pitchers checked as well. For some reason, Snit strikes me as the old school type who would never ask to have a pitcher checked.

[Enscheff]

For those wondering what the best pitcher on the planet looks like on paper...

FA at 99.1 mph (Grade 75) with 8.7" of rise (Grade 50) and 5.0" of arm-side run (Grade 50) is one of the best FAs in the game, and he maintains it over the course of a full outing. That's a Grade 70 or better pitch.

SL at 94.9 mph (Grade 80+) with 0.9" of rise (Grade 55) and 3.0" of glove-side run (Grade 50+) is probably the hardest slider in the game, or maybe it's a cutter with lot's of break? Either way, it's a plus-plus pitch or better based on it's power breaking nature.

Oh by the way, the CH comes in 8 mph slower than the FA (Grade 55) with 8.0" of arm-side run (Grade 50+) and 0.4" of rise (Grade 65+). That's a a plus pitch with major downward action.

To top it all off, he walks like 1-2 batters per 9, which grades out as 80+ command.

So he's basically a lockdown closer with a CH in his back pocket for emergencies plus elite command...and he maintains it over bulk innings. So imagine facing absolute peak Kimbrel for 5-7 innings.

[CyYoung31]

For those wondering what the best pitcher on the planet looks like on paper...

FA at 99.1 mph (Grade 75) with 8.7" of rise (Grade 50) and 5.0" of arm-side run (Grade 50) is one of the best FAs in the game, and he maintains it over the course of a full outing. That's a Grade 70 or better pitch.

SL at 94.9 mph (Grade 80+) with 0.9" of rise (Grade 55) and 3.0" of glove-side run (Grade 50+) is probably the hardest slider in the game, or maybe it's a cutter with lot's of break? Either way, it's a plus-plus pitch or better based on it's power breaking nature.

Oh by the way, the CH comes in 8 mph slower than the FA (Grade 55) with 8.0" of arm-side run (Grade 50+) and 0.4" of rise (Grade 65+). That's a a plus pitch with major downward action.

To top it all off, he walks like 1-2 batters per 9, which grades out as 80+ command.

So he's basically a lockdown closer with a CH in his back pocket for emergencies plus elite command...and he maintains it over bulk innings. So imagine facing absolute peak Kimbrel for 5-7 innings.

This is Anderson?

[thewupk]

For those wondering what the best pitcher on the planet looks like on paper...

FA at 99.1 mph (Grade 75) with 8.7" of rise (Grade 50) and 5.0" of arm-side run (Grade 50) is one of the best FAs in the game, and he maintains it over the course of a full outing. That's a Grade 70 or better pitch.

SL at 94.9 mph (Grade 80+) with 0.9" of rise (Grade 55) and 3.0" of glove-side run (Grade 50+) is probably the hardest slider in the game, or maybe it's a cutter with lot's of break? Either way, it's a plus-plus pitch or better based on it's power breaking nature.

Oh by the way, the CH comes in 8 mph slower than the FA (Grade 55) with 8.0" of arm-side run (Grade 50+) and 0.4" of rise (Grade 65+). That's a a plus pitch with major downward action.

To top it all off, he walks like 1-2 batters per 9, which grades out as 80+ command.

So he's basically a lockdown closer with a CH in his back pocket for emergencies plus elite command...and he maintains it over bulk innings. So imagine facing absolute peak Kimbrel for 5-7 innings.

Not surprising. It's a shame this information wasn't available in the 90s. Would of love to have seen how peak Pedro was graded.

[UNCBlue012]

How in the hell is a pitcher this good?

[CyYoung31]

How in the hell is a pitcher this good?

Tunneling.

[thewupk]

How in the hell is a pitcher this good?

Take an all-time elite pitcher (for a players peak anyway) and put them in a game where hitters love to strike out with a deadened ball and this is what you get. I would expect someone like peak Pedro to be able to do the same if he was playing.

[UNCBlue012]

$340M bunter lmao

[UNCBlue012]

He’s barely missing those corners

[thewupk]

giving up runs without allowing hits is always fun

[UNCBlue012]

That’s game. Dammit.

[WaitingFor2017]

See you for Game 2.

[msstate7]

Shook off twice for that pitch. Just throw what's called rookie

[CyYoung31]

That’s game. Dammit.

Is it, though?

[jsebe10]

God it must nice to have a pitcher that you know only needs 1 run …

[UNCBlue012]

Is it, though? it’s very deGrim

[thewupk]

Dang AA has a lot of gray hairs. This season must be stressful for him

[thewupk]

4 K's in 2 innings. Could be worse.

[jsebe10]

Dang AA has a lot of gray hairs. This season must be stressful for him

Yea blowing smoke up an entire fan base’s ass for a few years can get stressful.

[jsebe10]

Fckn Quad A hour from Citi Field

[msstate7]

Put degrom on too, or bean em

[jpx7]

For those wondering what the best pitcher on the planet looks like on paper...

FA at 99.1 mph (Grade 75) with 8.7" of rise (Grade 50) and 5.0" of arm-side run (Grade 50) is one of the best FAs in the game, and he maintains it over the course of a full outing. That's a Grade 70 or better pitch.

SL at 94.9 mph (Grade 80+) with 0.9" of rise (Grade 55) and 3.0" of glove-side run (Grade 50+) is probably the hardest slider in the game, or maybe it's a cutter with lot's of break? Either way, it's a plus-plus pitch or better based on it's power breaking nature.

Oh by the way, the CH comes in 8 mph slower than the FA (Grade 55) with 8.0" of arm-side run (Grade 50+) and 0.4" of rise (Grade 65+). That's a a plus pitch with major downward action.

To top it all off, he walks like 1-2 batters per 9, which grades out as 80+ command.

So he's basically a lockdown closer with a CH in his back pocket for emergencies plus elite command...and he maintains it over bulk innings. So imagine facing absolute peak Kimbrel for 5-7 innings.

All with a batting-average nearly twice as high as the next nearest Met.

[thewupk]

no perfect game today

[50PoundHead]

Baseball gods laugh at DeGrom and have him walk the pitcher. Payback for opposing pitchers having about a 1.000 OPS against us.

[jsebe10]

Mueller has done his job so far.

[TURBO]

unlucky there

[Hudson2]

Just our luck lol

[thewupk]

we got ****ed hard

[50PoundHead]

Following on Gameday. Any reason they didn't send Heredia with 2 outs?

[WaitingFor2017]

Following on Gameday. Any reason they didn't send Heredia with 2 outs?

Ground rule double

[50PoundHead]

Ground rule double

I guess that answers that.

Question 2, how did Muller look?

[thewupk]

I guess that answers that.

Question 2, how did Muller look?

good

[zbhargrove]

I guess that answers that.

Question 2, how did Muller look?

Muller looked pretty good... had some luck. Was nervous at first and then settled in. Shane Greene is not very good... never has been... his peripherals were pretty clear on that. Not sure why everyone wanted him back so much.

[Hudson2]

That’s 2 damn strikes!! Come on ump!!

[Hudson2]

Here comes New. Aw hell

[WaitingFor2017]

Thank goodness Greene is only here until October. Woof.

[WaitingFor2017]

Newcomb with the bases loaded? I don't have the stats, but bringing Newcomb in with runners on seems to be a disastrous idea.

[zbhargrove]

Thank goodness Greene is only here until October. Woof.

Was a reactionary signing of a reliever who isn’t very good and never has been except when he’s lucky. Tired of these desperate bandaid moves. If you want to compete actually go get a real arm or two

[brian22]

Good job bringing SN into the game. I bet he walks in at least one.

[CyYoung31]

Newcomb over Matzek here, huh?

[Hudson2]

Good job Newcomb. 4-0 Mets. FN Snit

[brian22]

Good job, Snit.

[WaitingFor2017]

lols snit

[thewupk]

Newcomb over Matzek here, huh?

saving the real pitchers for game 2

[zbhargrove]

Man who could have predicted Sean Newcomb would fail? What an idiotic decision

[CrazyTrain]

Newk is so bad.

That was a good hit though.

[WaitingFor2017]

60% of Newcomb's inherited runners have scored now.

If you have to use him, let him create his own mess.

[jsebe10]

Newk is so bad.

That was a good hit though.

Oh yea. Gotta love when pitchers miss their spot by a foot.

[CyYoung31]

I'll ask again: Do we really deserve to watch another year of Sean Newcomb trying to pitch?

[Hudson2]

Newk is all over the place. Send this dude down already.

[CyYoung31]

Newk is all over the place. Send this dude into the sun already.

FTFY.

[jsebe10]

I'll ask again: Do we really deserve to watch another year of Sean Newcomb trying to pitch?

Our GM seems to think so

[WaitingFor2017]

Is it too quick of a turnaround for AA to fire Snit inbetween games?

[thewupk]

You guys are overreacting on this one. It's deGrom and the game was likely over at 1-0. Save our stud relievers for tonight.

[Julio3000]

Newcomb needs to go live on a farm upstate.

[Hudson2]

Man we should have the lead right now

[brian22]

You guys are overreacting on this one. It's deGrom and the game was likely over at 1-0. Save our stud relievers for tonight.

You were saying?

[Hudson2]

FTFY.

True haha

[UNCBlue012]

I hate Snit so much. Of course we score

[thewupk]

You were saying?

deGrom let up with a huge lead

[zbhargrove]

Another game that is completely on Snit if we lose

[UNCBlue012]

What an easy win that should have been. Yikes, Braves

[msstate7]

So we threw no one, and they used their 3 best pitchers.

[steveAKAslick]

Newcomb over Matzek here, huh?

But Snit burned him last night in a high leverage situation down 9-1

[msstate7]

Riley has gone to crap

[UNCBlue012]

Riley needs to get his head out of his ass. He chased a terrible pitch that was a ball and a walk.

[msstate7]

This team is total trash

[UNCBlue012]

Man. That’s as easy as it gets for a major leaguer. Dude is throwing absolute junk out there

[msstate7]

FF and Riley's ABs were beyond pathetic. Almonte, I guess you can't look to walk so muc Bc Riley is right back to same ol trash

[msstate7]

Gonna get shut out by a guy that has a 5.50+ era in AAA

[msstate7]

Just pathetic

[WaitingFor2017]

Eickhoff hung 2 or 3 change ups to Pumpkin just now and ended up with a popout.

[msstate7]

Eickhoff hung 2 or 3 change ups to Pumpkin just now and ended up with a popout.

This team is done. Riley's AB in the first is what changed the whole game. If he had given us a decent AB, we most likely cruise to a win

[msstate7]

Thank you! That ball reminds me of the one Alonso hit against the braves a couple years ago. Just a rocket

[CrazyTrain]

Holy cow he hit that hard

[CrazyTrain]

The shift sucks

[msstate7]

2 batters too late

[msstate7]

Thank you

[CrazyTrain]

Ha

Haha

[TURBO]

That works

[CrimsonCowboy]

Thanks Mets!

[Garmel]

If that was the Braves doing that **** I would have been throwing the remote across the room.

[The Chosen One]

So do baseball old school purists love that inning because the Braves made a bunch of heads up fundamental baseball plays or hate it because the Mets players made bad decisions.

[msstate7]

Who nervous? Lol

[50PoundHead]

So do baseball old school purists love that inning because the Braves made a bunch of heads up fundamental baseball plays or hate it because the Mets players made bad decisions.

Peraza learned his baserunning smarts as a Braves' minor leaguer.

[Hudson2]

No way our luck can be this bad this often.

[TURBO]

Nervous now

[msstate7]

Bring in Martin

[msstate7]

Martin now

[TURBO]

We are cursed

[CrimsonCowboy]

Smith can’t make it easy

[Hudson2]

Holy ****! Nice job Riley!!!

[TURBO]

Emma waittingon replay

[Hudson2]

Dang no double play. Ok 1 more out!

[msstate7]

Welp, here comes the blooper

[jsebe10]

Easy toss to 2B and it’s ball game

[msstate7]

Easy toss to 2B and it’s ball game

Was he off the base?

[Garmel]

Easy toss to 2B and it’s ball game

Was he off base?

[Garmel]

Welp, here comes the blooper

I need some of your Xanax.

[msstate7]

I need some of your Xanax.

Lol, I really do need a prescription if I wanna keep watching this every night

[CrimsonCowboy]

http://i.imgur.com/P6x0U.gif

[TURBO]

https://media.giphy.com/media/vzuqin231fC92/giphy.gif

[zbhargrove]

Phew... can we still address the fact that Will Smith just sucks for the most part now, tho?

[The Chosen One]

Did Acuña add 2.0 to his WAR after being solely responsible for our last two wins.

[msstate7]

Phew... can we still address the fact that Will Smith just sucks for the most part now, tho?

Need that Adam Frazier and Rodriguez package deal. Will smith in the 6-8th inning would be good

[thewupk]

Wasn't pretty but we split the DH with deGrom going. Somehow need to take the next 2 to really give the team a boost.

[CyYoung31]

Phew... can we still address the fact that Will Smith just sucks for the most part now, tho?

He doesn’t, but he ain’t “closer” material anymore.

[CyYoung31]

If ya’ll exclusively post in the optimist thread, these wins will be a lot easier.

[nsacpi]

If we decide to sell, we could get a haul for Acuna.

[zbhargrove]

He doesn’t, but he ain’t “closer” material anymore.

He has sucked this year

[zbhargrove]

Need that Adam Frazier and Rodriguez package deal. Will smith in the 6-8th inning would be good

Doesn’t matter... as soon as we acquire a good relief pitcher he will suck for us

[thewupk]

He has sucked this year

A 3.00 FIP is not sucking

[CyYoung31]

He has sucked this year

Wrong.

[CyYoung31]

A 3.00 FIP is not sucking

2.89 coming into tonight. 3.50 xFIP, still solid.

[Carp]

I'm glad we won obviously, but how pathetic is it that Degrom has been the best pitcher on the planet for 4 years now and Is 31-21. 1.91 ERA over 556 innings and only 31 wins.

[Garmel]

Need that Adam Frazier and Rodriguez package deal. Will smith in the 6-8th inning would be good

Bryan Reynolds is the best player on the Pirates. We could get Heredia out of CF.

[Carp]

If we decide to sell, we could get a haul for Acuna.

Freddie and Acuna to the Astros for a major prospect haul. Harry is erect right now.

[UNCBlue012]

He has sucked this year

Yeah, that's just not accurate. lmao

[msstate7]

Bryan Reynolds is the best player on the Pirates. We could get Heredia out of CF.

That would be awesome. I don't see us spending what that would require though

[NYCBrave]

Braves have now scored 5 runs in the past 4 games. 2 Acuna HR, an Albies HR, and Freeman stealing home. Braves have somehow split those games.

[msstate7]

Braves have now scored 5 runs in the past 4 games. 2 Acuna HR, an Albies HR, and Freeman stealing home. Braves have somehow split those games.

Well, they're DHs. The 2021 braves can't score in 7-inning games or in extra innings.

[msstate7]

Hats off to snit for going minter in the 8th instead of just automatically going Martin bc he's the set up guy. I really don't trust minter at all, but it was 2 lhh coming up.

[nsacpi]

Hats off to snit for going minter in the 8th instead of just automatically going Martin bc he's the set up guy. I really don't trust minter at all, but it was 2 lhh coming up.

It wasn't the 8th.

[CyYoung31]

It wasn't the 8th.

It was in practice.

[Deester11]

It was in practice. LMAO!

[thewupk]

It was in practice.

Let's be honest. Snit likely forgot it was a 7 inning game.

[50PoundHead]

Bryan Reynolds is the best player on the Pirates. We could get Heredia out of CF.

The Pirates will probably make a couple of stupid moves at the deadline, but I doubt they will move Reynolds.

[CyYoung31]

Pache for Reynolds. Pirates might be dumb enough to do it.

[Garmel]

Pache for Reynolds. Pirates might be dumb enough to do it.

After that Archer trade anything is possible.

[clvclv]

Bryan Reynolds is the best player on the Pirates. We could get Heredia out of CF.

The reason to target Frazier rather than Reynolds is to lessen the return they'd expect. They control Reynolds through his age 31 season without having to pay him more than what he'll get in arbitration - there's not much reason for them to trade him unless they get a pretty big overpay coming back.

Frazier is a LH bat that makes a lot of contact that can help keep innings going that they only control through next season.

[msstate7]

Surplus value guys, what's a trade for Frazier and Rodriguez look like?

[Carp]

Surplus value guys, what's a trade for Frazier and Rodriguez look like?

Hard to say for a few reasons, but I'll try. Reynolds wasn't a super heralded prospect and barely has 1000 PAs to his name. But he put up 4 WAR in his rookie season and is on pace for 7 WAR this year, which would put him in some pretty elite company. Still, it's hard to get a good projection for him going forward. He has 4.5 years remaining control. For fun, let's just assume he averages around 4 WAR per season over those 4 years. That gives him roughly 18 WAR over that span. I'm too lazy to look, but I think the going rate for 1 WAR is still 9 mill. As a super 2, he could likely make 35 million through Arby. So for Reynolds you have the following:

18 x 9 million = 162 million. 162 - 35 = 127 million in surplus value.

Richard Rodriguez has 2.5 years of control remaining and should be expected to produce roughly 2.5 WAR over this time. The problem is you have to significantly overpay (in terms of surplus value) for top closers on the market. I don't know how to properly value that, but let's assume you double that to 5 WAR. I have no idea how his arby situation will play out, but let's assume he makes a total of 10 million in arby over the next 2 seasons. So you would have the following for Rodriguez:

5 x 9 = 45 million. 45 - 10 = 35 million.

All together, 162 million. That's a pretty substantial cost. Fortunately, we're dealing with the Pirates here and they don't know how to properly value players. So we could get a slight discount. But in general, we likely don't have the prospects to get it done without sacrificing at least half of our top 10 prospects, and I would assume Pache would be have to be included.

[clvclv]

Hard to say for a few reasons, but I'll try. Reynolds wasn't a super heralded prospect and barely has 1000 PAs to his name. But he put up 4 WAR in his rookie season and is on pace for 7 WAR this year, which would put him in some pretty elite company. Still, it's hard to get a good projection for him going forward. He has 4.5 years remaining control. For fun, let's just assume he averages around 4 WAR per season over those 4 years. That gives him roughly 18 WAR over that span. I'm too lazy to look, but I think the going rate for 1 WAR is still 9 mill. As a super 2, he could likely make 35 million through Arby. So for Reynolds you have the following:

18 x 9 million = 162 million. 162 - 35 = 127 million in surplus value.

Richard Rodriguez has 2.5 years of control remaining and should be expected to produce roughly 2.5 WAR over this time. The problem is you have to significantly overpay (in terms of surplus value) for top closers on the market. I don't know how to properly value that, but let's assume you double that to 5 WAR. I have no idea how his arby situation will play out, but let's assume he makes a total of 10 million in arby over the next 2 seasons. So you would have the following for Rodriguez:

5 x 9 = 45 million. 45 - 10 = 35 million.

All together, 162 million. That's a pretty substantial cost. Fortunately, we're dealing with the Pirates here and they don't know how to properly value players. So we could get a slight discount. But in general, we likely don't have the prospects to get it done without sacrificing at least half of our top 10 prospects, and I would assume Pache would be have to be included.

This is why I've thought Frazier was the more likely target. He's never put up more than 2.2 WAR in a full season, so this season is quite possibly his career year at age 29 with one year of control left. Maybe he's turned a corner, but with that BABIP and hard-hit rate, is it really fair to expect him to be more than a 2 WAR player in 2022?