2022 MLB Draft Thread

[CJ9]

We're about three months from the draft. By letting Freddie walk and assuming we don't sign any of the remaining qualifying offer free agents, we'll have all of our picks plus an extra pick after the end of the second round and after competitive balance picks. Just as important as the pick itself is the $900,000-ish of pool money that comes with the pick. It's definitely different to win the World Series and still have a pick as high as 20, but that's where we are.

I'm working off the 2021 draft pools here to estimate what we'll have to spend and see where that will likely rank. Last year, the Yankees picked 20th in the first round and had only one pick per round. That gave them the 22nd biggest pool. There were no free agent compensation picks given after round two last season, but if there were, it looks like it would've had a pick value of about $900k. Add that to the Yankees' pool, and it jumps them to the 20th biggest pool in the draft. So nothing massive and certainly nothing finalized until this year's pick values are released, but that gives you a good idea of where our pool will sit among all teams. Our picks in last year's format would've been worth $7.9 million. We'll see if or how much that is increased this year.

As far this draft class, it seems like the general consensus is college pitching sucks but college hitting is pretty good. The top of the draft is mostly prep hitters right now - led by Druw Jones, who will sadly not make it even close to our pick.

One reason the college pitching group sucks right now is a ton of Tommy John guys. There's four stud college arms who were probably first rounders and still could be -- Alabama LHP Connor Prielipp, Mississippi State RHP Landon Sims, Arkansas RHP Peyton Pallette, and Connecticut LHP Reggie Crawford. Prielipp/Sims/Pallette could be an interesting route to go at 20. I like Prielipp a lot more because his Tommy John was longer ago, whereas Sims' was in the last week and Pallette's was in February.

Baseball America is the only credible source out there with a mock draft out this early, very much acknowledging that they're pointless this early. But hey, they're fun. They actually had us taking Prielipp at 20 in their first mock. Still a ways to go and a ton will change, but excited for draft season to get cranked up over the next couple months.

[Russ2dollas]

We're about three months from the draft. By letting Freddie walk and assuming we don't sign any of the remaining qualifying offer free agents, we'll have all of our picks plus an extra pick after the end of the second round and after competitive balance picks. Just as important as the pick itself is the $900,000-ish of pool money that comes with the pick. It's definitely different to win the World Series and still have a pick as high as 20, but that's where we are.

I'm working off the 2021 draft pools here to estimate what we'll have to spend and see where that will likely rank. Last year, the Yankees picked 20th in the first round and had only one pick per round. That gave them the 22nd biggest pool. There were no free agent compensation picks given after round two last season, but if there were, it looks like it would've had a pick value of about $900k. Add that to the Yankees' pool, and it jumps them to the 20th biggest pool in the draft. So nothing massive and certainly nothing finalized until this year's pick values are released, but that gives you a good idea of where our pool will sit among all teams. Our picks in last year's format would've been worth $7.9 million. We'll see if or how much that is increased this year.

As far this draft class, it seems like the general consensus is college pitching sucks but college hitting is pretty good. The top of the draft is mostly prep hitters right now - led by Druw Jones, who will sadly not make it even close to our pick.

One reason the college pitching group sucks right now is a ton of Tommy John guys. There's four stud college arms who were probably first rounders and still could be -- Alabama LHP Connor Prielipp, Mississippi State RHP Landon Sims, Arkansas RHP Peyton Pallette, and Connecticut LHP Reggie Crawford. Prielipp/Sims/Pallette could be an interesting route to go at 20. I like Prielipp a lot more because his Tommy John was longer ago, whereas Sims' was in the last week and Pallette's was in February.

Baseball America is the only credible source out there with a mock draft out this early, very much acknowledging that they're pointless this early. But hey, they're fun. They actually had us taking Prielipp at 20 in their first mock. Still a ways to go and a ton will change, but excited for draft season to get cranked up over the next couple months.

Until show otherwise I'm going to say we draft a college pitcher with our first pick. New scouting staff always does.

I'd like to see us load up on high upside preps.

[jpx7]

One reason the college pitching group sucks right now is a ton of Tommy John guys. There's four stud college arms who were probably first rounders and still could be -- Alabama LHP Connor Prielipp, Mississippi State RHP Landon Sims, Arkansas RHP Peyton Pallette, and Connecticut LHP Reggie Crawford. Prielipp/Sims/Pallette could be an interesting route to go at 20. I like Prielipp a lot more because his Tommy John was longer ago, whereas Sims' was in the last week and Pallette's was in February.

They're definitely picking their favorite of the TJ guys.

[Carp]

Here's to hoping Druw Jones tells everyone else that the only team he'll sign with is the Braves or else he's going to college.

[Carp]

I'm gonna guess we go the same strategy as previous drafts where we go with a slot or below slot player with our 1st rounder. Then take someone over slot with our next pick. Then maybe 1 more big over slot guy before taking several college seniors and loading up on some tough signs after round 10.

[cajunrevenge]

Always look forward to the annual disappointment that is the Braves draft class. I hope whoever we draft wins lots of minor league championships for us before they settle into their role as a backup in the majors.

[clvclv]

Now that Dylan Lesko had his Tommy John Surgery, we can officially say that TJSs are more contagious in this draft class than COVID. Guys that were SOLIDLY in the Top 50 (or higher) discussion that have gone down so far...

1.) Lesko
2.) Connor Prielipp
3.) Peyton Pallette
4.) Reggie Crawford
5.) Landon Sims
6.) Henry Williams
7.) Hunter Barco
8.) Cole Phillips

I'd almost guarantee Lesko is a Brave if he's still there at #20.

[Russ2dollas]

We will pick a college arm until I am proved wrong. The new group has done it every year.

Most likely it will be a college arm with a recent velocity spike based on previous years. The model they use seems to be very high on college kids w/ a velocity spike.

This particular year, maybe a college arm w/ TJ falls to them and they see that as value.

[CJ9]

New mocks in the last 24 hours - Baseball America has us taking Mississippi State RHP Landon Sims at 20, Pipeline has us taking Tennessee RHP Blade Tidwell at 20.

Both have injury question marks. Sims had Tommy John in March, Tidwell had shoulder issues that kept him out the first half of the season but is back now.

[Hudson2]

Sims could be a good lottery ticket. The Pads were more willing to part with Fried bc he just had TJ. That worked out well.

[bravesfanMatt]

no thank you on shoulder injury pick.. TJ picks are great if other teams are scared off by them.

[Tapate50]

Sims would be a fantastic get at 20.

[msstate7]

Sims would be a fantastic get at 20.

Love sims. Still not sure he's a starter though

[clvclv]

Latest Pipeline mock...

https://www.mlb.com/braves/news/mlb-mock-draft-2022-position-players-standout?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

[Tapate50]

Seems like this draft is fairly loaded.

[Hudson2]

We have 4 picks in the top 100 so we should get some pretty good talent.

[msstate7]

We have 4 picks in the top 100 so we should get some pretty good talent.

4 college pitchers coming up

[CJ9]

Latest Pipeline mock...

https://www.mlb.com/braves/news/mlb-mock-draft-2022-position-players-standout?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

They have us taking RHP Gabriel Hughes from Gonzaga. Pipeline has him ranked #19 overall, Keith Law has him #29, Baseball America has him #42. Law noted that he just turned 21, so he's a younger college guy that model teams (like the Braves) tend to like.

Hughes' scouting report on Pipeline is pretty impressive:

It’s been a little while since Gonzaga University has produced any early-round Draft talent, with Wyatt Mills a third-rounder in 2017 and lefty Marco Gonzales a first-round selection back in 2013. Hughes, who like Gonzales, has been a two-way player for the Zags, threw well in the weekend rotation in 2021 before pitching for USA Baseball over the summer, and has taken a nice step forward as Gonzaga’s Friday night starter, while focusing only on pitching, this spring.

Hughes has an exciting combination of size, repertoire and feel for pitching. The 6-foot-4 right-hander has electric stuff, starting with a fastball that’s regularly in the 94-97 mph range with ease, leading some scouts to wonder if he might touch triple digits someday. His slider can be a wipeout pitch, up to 89-90 mph, and he even shows very good feel for his changeup.

The big right-hander can fill up the strike zone with all three pitches, throwing them to both sides of the plate and commanding his breaking stuff well. He gets high grades for his makeup, a tremendous student-athlete who is on pace to graduate in three years. Some evaluators see him as the best arm on the West Coast, one who is shooting up Draft boards with his strong spring in Washington.

[clvclv]

They have us taking RHP Gabriel Hughes from Gonzaga. Pipeline has him ranked #19 overall, Keith Law has him #29, Baseball America has him #42. Law noted that he just turned 21, so he's a younger college guy that model teams (like the Braves) tend to like.

Hughes' scouting report on Pipeline is pretty impressive:

It’s been a little while since Gonzaga University has produced any early-round Draft talent, with Wyatt Mills a third-rounder in 2017 and lefty Marco Gonzales a first-round selection back in 2013. Hughes, who like Gonzales, has been a two-way player for the Zags, threw well in the weekend rotation in 2021 before pitching for USA Baseball over the summer, and has taken a nice step forward as Gonzaga’s Friday night starter, while focusing only on pitching, this spring.

Hughes has an exciting combination of size, repertoire and feel for pitching. The 6-foot-4 right-hander has electric stuff, starting with a fastball that’s regularly in the 94-97 mph range with ease, leading some scouts to wonder if he might touch triple digits someday. His slider can be a wipeout pitch, up to 89-90 mph, and he even shows very good feel for his changeup.

The big right-hander can fill up the strike zone with all three pitches, throwing them to both sides of the plate and commanding his breaking stuff well. He gets high grades for his makeup, a tremendous student-athlete who is on pace to graduate in three years. Some evaluators see him as the best arm on the West Coast, one who is shooting up Draft boards with his strong spring in Washington.

Strider-lite maybe?

[drewdat]

Washingtonian deGrom

[Hudson2]

I wouldn’t hate the Hughes pick. We’ve always been a pitching first organization but with the farm pretty thin we could use help everywhere.

[IslandBrave]

I wouldn’t hate the Hughes pick. We’ve always been a pitching first organization but with the farm pretty thin we could use help everywhere.

Law has Braves taking Justin Crawford from Bishop Gorman. He's Carl's son.

[Russ2dollas]

Law has Braves taking Justin Crawford from Bishop Gorman. He's Carl's son.

I'd LOVE to see us take a HS position player. I'm just assuming it's a college arm until proven otherwise with this group.

[CJ9]

I'd LOVE to see us take a HS position player. I'm just assuming it's a college arm until proven otherwise with this group.

Law’s reasoning for Crawford was that we have a thinned out system devoid of star power. I don’t disagree with that, but I also have doubts about whether that drives Dana Brown and team’s decision making. They have a clear preference of college guys early, upside HS guys later that has played out every draft since he’s been here. I don’t think the state of the system would have much impact on the way he evaluates players at 20.

[Southcack77]

Law’s reasoning for Crawford was that we have a thinned out system devoid of star power. I don’t disagree with that, but I also have doubts about whether that drives Dana Brown and team’s decision making. They have a clear preference of college guys early, upside HS guys later that has played out every draft since he’s been here. I don’t think the state of the system would have much impact on the way he evaluates players at 20.

Not sure how a thin system should lead to wilder swings at talent.

[Hudson2]

BPA regardless whether they are HS or college guys should always be the strategy.

[Russ2dollas]

BPA regardless whether they are HS or college guys should always be the strategy.

It's clearly not, though I agree with you.

Looks to me to be a heavy look at a statistical model rounds 1 and 2. A model that seems to favor college pitchers with velocity spikes that will not continue in the minors.

THen late they go more scouting of traits for high upside HS guys.

[bravesfanMatt]

It's clearly not, though I agree with you.

Looks to me to be a heavy look at a statistical model rounds 1 and 2. A model that seems to favor college pitchers with velocity spikes that will not continue in the minors.

THen late they go more scouting of traits for high upside HS guys.

I agree.. seems they are looking for guys more ready to contribute in the next year or two early while the competition window is open. Then back fill talent in later rounds with higher ceiling guys that might be over slot. They can also get international draft kids to fill lower minors.

I can't say I hate that approach either.

[CJ9]

Kiley's first mock draft came out today.


20. Atlanta Braves
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State

I've heard mostly under-slot college pitchers here including Georgia's Jonathan Cannon, Campbell's Thomas Harrington and Iowa's Adam Mazur, along with rising righty Jacob Miller. Miller and Robby Snelling are the two high school pitchers with a shot to get a slot-or-better bonus in the 20s behind the Lesko/Porter/Barriera group.

[MadduxFanII]

Oh, an under-slot college pitcher. Be still my heart.

[MadduxFanII]

'Under-slot college pitchers!' Are there any words more thrilling to the human soul?

[chop2chip]

'Under-slot college pitchers!' Are there any words more thrilling to the human soul?
I can imagine his scouting report is littered with

“Relies on the hitter getting themselves out”
“Three above average pitches”
“Hits his spots”
“Sits 89-91 but can reach back for 93 when he needs to”

[zbhargrove]

I can imagine his scouting report is littered with

“Relies on the hitter getting themselves out”
“Three above average pitches”
“Hits his spots”
“Sits 89-91 but can reach back for 93 when he needs to”

Well he just knows how to pitch

[clvclv]

Kiley's first mock draft came out today.


20. Atlanta Braves
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State

I've heard mostly under-slot college pitchers here including Georgia's Jonathan Cannon, Campbell's Thomas Harrington and Iowa's Adam Mazur, along with rising righty Jacob Miller. Miller and Robby Snelling are the two high school pitchers with a shot to get a slot-or-better bonus in the 20s behind the Lesko/Porter/Barriera group.

Newest BA mock is out - has the Braves taking Hjerpe as well...

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2022-mlb-mock-draft/

I will say that even though that's pretty uninspiring for lots of folks, it is nice to read that he's considered somewhat of an "analytical darling".

[CJ9]

Newest BA mock is out - has the Braves taking Hjerpe as well...

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2022-mlb-mock-draft/

I will say that even though that's pretty uninspiring for lots of folks, it is nice to read that he's considered somewhat of an "analytical darling".

BA write up also said many scouts have him as a late first early second rounder in a normal year without this many college pitching injuries.

[Hudson2]

No thanks on a dude almost named Herpe

[bravesfanMatt]

No thanks on a dude almost named Herpe

Herpes and AIDS would make for an unstoppable team.

[striker42]

I loathe picking underslot starters in the first round with ceilings of a number 3 or 4 starter. I'd much rather go for elite ceiling in the first and pay slot for middle of the rotation types later on.

[Hudson2]

I loathe picking underslot starters in the first round with ceilings of a number 3 or 4 starter. I'd much rather go for elite ceiling in the first and pay slot for middle of the rotation types later on.

I’m with you striker, get the guy you know has the best chance to succeed first and then go after lottery picks.

[bravesfanMatt]

I will play devils advocate and say we did get guys like Backsrorm, Etes, and Grissom in 19 doing that strategy

[Carp]

Do these mocks ever really get it close to right? Seems like the same group of writers throw a dart at the wall once a week and release new mock 2.0 just so they can get clicks.

[Hudson2]

Do these mocks ever really get it close to right? Seems like the same group of writers throw a dart at the wall once a week and release new mock 2.0 just so they can get clicks.

Outside of the top 3 they usually don’t.

[clvclv]

Do these mocks ever really get it close to right? Seems like the same group of writers throw a dart at the wall once a week and release new mock 2.0 just so they can get clicks.

I do think they're pretty useful in reading the "buzz" - as in which general category (HS hitter/college Pitcher) teams are leaning.

Typically they tend to follow the same script as Top 100 lists - if the guy(s) compiling the mock have connected particular names with particular teams, they tend to keep them there rather than adjusting though.

[CJ9]

This mock has been pretty connected in recent years: https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022-mlb-mock-draft-n78w7-st9r4.


20. Atlanta Braves
Daniel Susac, C, Arizona

Susac falling to the 20th pick in the draft would be a bit surprising, but there is some industry concern over Susac’s aggressive approach at the plate and his willingness to expand the zone. He’s been ultra-productive for the Wildcats and possesses a ton of tools to find success as a pro. He’ll need to adjust things in the box to find sustained success at the next level, but given his usable power, bat-to-ball skills and ability to stick behind the plate, this feels like a steal. Atlanta has been connected to a billion college arms here, so keep an eye on Thomas Harrington, Justin Campbell, Jonathan Cannon and others here too. Also, if there was one team to pay Lesko, it might be here.


Worth noting they are projecting Lesko to go to Vanderbilt and not sign, but that note at the end about us paying him would be pretty awesome.

[Hudson2]

Kunar Rocker has been pretty good. Any chance we draft him if he’s there?

[MadduxFanII]

This is one of those times I'm glad MLB uses regular season record to order the draft and not postseason finishes like the NFL does. It's a difference of about 10 picks for us.

[CJ9]

This is one of those times I'm glad MLB uses regular season record to order the draft and not postseason finishes like the NFL does. It's a difference of about 10 picks for us.

And probably the difference in $1.5-2 million in draft pool money, too.

[clvclv]

This mock has been pretty connected in recent years: https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022-mlb-mock-draft-n78w7-st9r4.


20. Atlanta Braves
Daniel Susac, C, Arizona

Susac falling to the 20th pick in the draft would be a bit surprising, but there is some industry concern over Susac’s aggressive approach at the plate and his willingness to expand the zone. He’s been ultra-productive for the Wildcats and possesses a ton of tools to find success as a pro. He’ll need to adjust things in the box to find sustained success at the next level, but given his usable power, bat-to-ball skills and ability to stick behind the plate, this feels like a steal. Atlanta has been connected to a billion college arms here, so keep an eye on Thomas Harrington, Justin Campbell, Jonathan Cannon and others here too. Also, if there was one team to pay Lesko, it might be here.


Worth noting they are projecting Lesko to go to Vanderbilt and not sign, but that note at the end about us paying him would be pretty awesome.

There are days I feel like Alex would "step up" and pay Lesko, but then a part of me says that the Braves just don't have enough pool money to make it happen. I think that for someone to sign him away from Vanderbilt it's going to take Top 10 money - MAYBE Top 15 if it were coming from the Braves. The #10 pick has a pool value of just under $5 million ($4,980,000) this year, and #15 is just over $4 million ($4,082,900). Even #15 money is more than the Braves have in their entire pool.

If there's ONE guy I wish they'd take it's Lesko, but I think the only teams with a shot at actually signing him would be one of the teams with Top 3 picks (Orioles/Diamondbacks/Rangers). Those three teams could take a legitimate back of the first round college guy first - possibly one of the big-name college guys rehabbing as well like Prielipp/Pallette/Rocker - and still come back and give Lesko ~ $4 million with their next pick.

It would be one *elluva gamble but if you're the Rangers, imagine the payoff if one of Prielipp/Pallette/Rocker and Lesko BOTH returned healthy and you're able to pair the two of them with Leiter in 2024.

[Enscheff]

Um, just draft Jon Cannon. Seems obvious.

[clvclv]

Um, just draft Jon Cannon. Seems obvious.

Cannon would need to sign pretty significantly under slot for me to want any part of him at #20. There's a non-zero chance Cannon might be there when they pick in the 2nd round since he missed starts with a forearm strain IMO.

[IslandBrave]

There are days I feel like Alex would "step up" and pay Lesko, but then a part of me says that the Braves just don't have enough pool money to make it happen. I think that for someone to sign him away from Vanderbilt it's going to take Top 10 money - MAYBE Top 15 if it were coming from the Braves. The #10 pick has a pool value of just under $5 million ($4,980,000) this year, and #15 is just over $4 million ($4,082,900). Even #15 money is more than the Braves have in their entire pool.

If there's ONE guy I wish they'd take it's Lesko, but I think the only teams with a shot at actually signing him would be one of the teams with Top 3 picks (Orioles/Diamondbacks/Rangers). Those three teams could take a legitimate back of the first round college guy first - possibly one of the big-name college guys rehabbing as well like Prielipp/Pallette/Rocker - and still come back and give Lesko ~ $4 million with their next pick.

It would be one *elluva gamble but if you're the Rangers, imagine the payoff if one of Prielipp/Pallette/Rocker and Lesko BOTH returned healthy and you're able to pair the two of them with Leiter in 2024.

The Braves pool is just over $8MM.

Braves: $8,022,200

[thewupk]

Does Cannon throw fast? If not then he's not living up to his name and I want nothing to do with him.

[Buzzworm]

A guy I would be thrilled to get in the middle rounds is Maxwell from GT.
I think he will go anywhere from 3-5th round and be a lottery ticket worth taking.
Kid has A+ stuff but battles control issues.
I believe he will be this drafts Strider who gets to the majors rather quickly.
96-101 velo and a nasty slider.
He’s scary cause he could be Newk 2.0 but his stuff is better then Sean’s ever was.
Watched him his entire baseball career and when he’s on he’s elite plus I love him cause he is the white CC Sabathia, 6-7 260 lol

[clvclv]

The Braves pool is just over $8MM.

Braves: $8,022,200

Right - I explained it wrong, but the thought still carries. I just find it tough to believe that Alex will spend at least HALF of their entire pool on an injured HS arm - especially when they're still in the middle of their window and he will likely be looking for players that can be counted on to help while everybody's still under control.

I've been in the Lesko camp all along and would love to have him, I just don't think he fits the type of guy they've been looking to pop early - just not this regime's MO. Prielipp or Tidwell seem more like guys Alex would lean toward - especially given their recent history of taking guys like Wright, Strider, Shuster, Cusick, Elder, Kingham, and Schwellenbach.

[Tapate50]

Hughes still seems like a prime target.

[IslandBrave]

There's a good article on the Athletic this AM about Thomas Harrington from Campbell if anyone has a subscription.

[CJ9]

Keith Law's updated mock today-

20. Atlanta: Sterlin Thompson, 2B/OF, Florida
I think it’s more likely that Atlanta goes college than high school, and more likely hitter than pitcher, so they’d be looking at the college position player group that includes Thompson, Beck, Graham and Drew Gilbert.


As a Florida fan, I'd be OK with this. Thompson didn't hit for as much power as I was hoping this spring - maybe my expectations were too high - but he's a good hitter. Slashed .354/.443/.563 this year and closed the year really strong.

He played infield his whole life but shifted to outfield as a freshman in 2021 to get in the lineup. This season, a freshman outfielder named Ty Evans (who was actually our 20th round pick last year but didn't sign) broke out late in the regular season and the best way to get him in the lineup was to shift Thompson back to the infield. He was solid but unspectacular at second base, but certainly didn't seem like an above average defender by any stretch of the imagination. I'd be more interested to see how he could handle third. He could make for a really interesting defender as a guy that can handle both corner OF spots, plus be passable at second and third. But it's all about the bat with him.

[MadduxFanII]

Keith Law's updated mock today-

20. Atlanta: Sterlin Thompson, 2B/OF, Florida
I think it’s more likely that Atlanta goes college than high school, and more likely hitter than pitcher, so they’d be looking at the college position player group that includes Thompson, Beck, Graham and Drew Gilbert.


As a Florida fan, I'd be OK with this. Thompson didn't hit for as much power as I was hoping this spring - maybe my expectations were too high - but he's a good hitter. Slashed .354/.443/.563 this year and closed the year really strong.

He played infield his whole life but shifted to outfield as a freshman in 2021 to get in the lineup. This season, a freshman outfielder named Ty Evans (who was actually our 20th round pick last year but didn't sign) broke out late in the regular season and the best way to get him in the lineup was to shift Thompson back to the infield. He was solid but unspectacular at second base, but certainly didn't seem like an above average defender by any stretch of the imagination. I'd be more interested to see how he could handle third. He could make for a really interesting defender as a guy that can handle both corner OF spots, plus be passable at second and third. But it's all about the bat with him.

Fellow Gator fan here. Love Thompson's approach, love his swing, don't mind betting on the power improving when you have that kind of foundation for a hitter. I think there's a good chance he ends up as something of a tweener at the professional level -- never enough power to justify a corner outfield spot, not really capable of handling center, not really capable of playing on the infield, and so the value isn't really there. But the can't-miss guys tend to be gone when you're drafting in the 20's, and by that point you're just picking through flaws and downsides anyway.

[Tapate50]

Sounds more like a round 3/4 guy

[clvclv]

Keith Law's updated mock today-

20. Atlanta: Sterlin Thompson, 2B/OF, Florida
I think it’s more likely that Atlanta goes college than high school, and more likely hitter than pitcher, so they’d be looking at the college position player group that includes Thompson, Beck, Graham and Drew Gilbert.


As a Florida fan, I'd be OK with this. Thompson didn't hit for as much power as I was hoping this spring - maybe my expectations were too high - but he's a good hitter. Slashed .354/.443/.563 this year and closed the year really strong.

He played infield his whole life but shifted to outfield as a freshman in 2021 to get in the lineup. This season, a freshman outfielder named Ty Evans (who was actually our 20th round pick last year but didn't sign) broke out late in the regular season and the best way to get him in the lineup was to shift Thompson back to the infield. He was solid but unspectacular at second base, but certainly didn't seem like an above average defender by any stretch of the imagination. I'd be more interested to see how he could handle third. He could make for a really interesting defender as a guy that can handle both corner OF spots, plus be passable at second and third. But it's all about the bat with him.

All these guys have their "sources" - and most of us don't - but a college utility guy just doesn't seem to make much sense, especially with the DH now in play in the NL. Guys like Gosselin are ALWAYS floating around, and the Braves already have utility guys who will be ready during the current contention window. With Arcia under contract through next season (plus a 2024 option), the MI is covered even if Dansby doesn't re-sign or another starting-caliber SS is added on the cheap. You have Shewmake and Grissom under control through the end of Acuna's deal even if neither develops into a starter. Before Ozzie got hurt, Arcia just wasn't going to get ANY ABs with Ozuna around and his money on the books.

I realize it's incredibly boring and predictable, but taking a college Pitcher with upside that might only allow you more flexibility in transitioning live-armed guys like Strider/Ynoa/Muller/Davidson into useful pen pieces if you need to go that route with them and looking for HS position players that slide that you can get for slightly over slot in the later rounds that will take a little longer to develop would seem like a better strategy while the team is in the middle of it's contention window. The only way a position player makes a lot of sense at #20 is if there's one available at that point you're relatively sure your player development guys can turn into an everyday player down the road - a kid that couldn't lock down an everyday role on his college team doesn't really fit that profile, even one coming from a major program.

[CJ9]

Kiley's latest mock:


20. Atlanta Braves
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State

I'm also hearing mostly college arms, some under slot, with prep RHP Jacob Miller as the only divergence if their preferred scenarios don't play out. Hjerpe, Jonathan Cannon, Justin Campbell and Gabe Hughes get mentioned the most, but at this juncture a lot of teams haven't narrowed down their focus to just a couple of players yet.

[clvclv]

Kiley's latest mock:


20. Atlanta Braves
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State

I'm also hearing mostly college arms, some under slot, with prep RHP Jacob Miller as the only divergence if their preferred scenarios don't play out. Hjerpe, Jonathan Cannon, Justin Campbell and Gabe Hughes get mentioned the most, but at this juncture a lot of teams haven't narrowed down their focus to just a couple of players yet.

I like Prielipp better personally since I think he has a higher ceiling than any of those mentioned, but Hjerpe's got a LOT of funk in his delivery and the reports I've read say that his control is expected to improve even more as he gets exposed to better coaching. Hjerpe should also allow them to squirrel away some money for players that potentially slip later on. I think kids like Roman Anthony, Sam Horn, and Brady Neal will be interesting to keep an eye on - Horn's a premium athlete who could be really good if you get him away from football, and Neal has a lot of tools for a Catcher who will be really young if he signs - particularly since he hits from the left side.

[Jaw]

Fellow Gator fan here. Love Thompson's approach, love his swing, don't mind betting on the power improving when you have that kind of foundation for a hitter.

Yep. I would much rather gamble on a good hitter developing power than on a Cody Johnson type of power guy learning how to hit. The latter type of just never seems to figure it out.

[cajunrevenge]

Ah Cody Johnson. One of the many prospects I was told I dont know what I am talking about when I **** on him. I take it no one wants to own up to that now. They sure had fun mocking me when he tore up rookie ball where they throw 98% fastballs.

[Tapate50]

No one cares

[Deester11]

Ah Cody Johnson. One of the many prospects I was told I dont know what I am talking about when I **** on him. I take it no one wants to own up to that now. They sure had fun mocking me when he tore up rookie ball where they throw 98% fastballs.

Damn Cajun. Way back machine? People dream on prospects...I told this board Pache was other worldly...I whiffed. Happens. But there are a slew of others I nailed having seen them in rookie ball. It is what it is. Be better...you're better. Lmao.

[CyYoung31]

Damn Cajun. Way back machine? People dream on prospects...I told this board Pache was other worldly...I whiffed. Happens. But there are a slew of others I nailed having seen them in rookie ball. It is what it is. Be better...you're better. Lmao.

He’s bitter because he appears to be incredibly wrong about Kyle Wright, despite being condescending about it from the beginning. He also said hyperbolic things like Wright was the worst prospect he’s ever seen.

[Mad Dog Murph]

He’s bitter because he appears to be incredibly wrong about Kyle Wright, despite being condescending about it from the beginning. He also said hyperbolic things like Wright was the worst prospect he’s ever seen.

Stop bringing facts into this.

[Nerfherders]

Kiley's latest mock:


20. Atlanta Braves
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State

I'm also hearing mostly college arms, some under slot, with prep RHP Jacob Miller as the only divergence if their preferred scenarios don't play out. Hjerpe, Jonathan Cannon, Justin Campbell and Gabe Hughes get mentioned the most, but at this juncture a lot of teams haven't narrowed down their focus to just a couple of players yet.

I can just imagine the nickname for this poor guy here if six years from now he turns into Newcomb.

[bravesfanforlife88]

I can just imagine the nickname for this poor guy here if six years from now he turns into Newcomb.

Well Herpes is the obvious choice. But that nickname would come and go.

[striker42]

Well Herpes is the obvious choice. But that nickname would come and go.

"And Hjerpe gives a little flare up to the Mets hitter."

[Deester11]

He’s bitter because he appears to be incredibly wrong about Kyle Wright, despite being condescending about it from the beginning. He also said hyperbolic things like Wright was the worst prospect he’s ever seen.

Yall are brutal! 😂😂

[CJ9]

Baseball America has an updated mock with us taking RHP Cade Horton from Oklahoma.

He has no question been the biggest riser in the last month or two. BA recently said he's become a top two round pick, so maybe we could get a discount on him He is a draft-eligible sophomore though, so maybe that wouldn't work out with that much leverage. I'm intrigued though. He went to Oklahoma as a two-way guy but had TJ in 2020 after enrolling. He started out really rough in 2022 but came on extremely strong over the second half of the year. He was a huge part of them playing for the national championship. BA says he was 94-5, topping at 98 with a high spin fastball with carry up in the zone. Upper 80s slider that BA says earned double plus grades.

I'm usually skeptical of these late breakout guys, but he seems to have a good reason for the slow start as he was coming back from TJ.

[Tapate50]

I watched him in the CWS, and he was good but I’m not sure he’s anywhere close to top 2 rounds good.

I’d also question double plus slider. It was a good pitch though.

[thewupk]

Can we find anyone else like Strider?

[Tapate50]

Can we find anyone else like Strider?

I'll take 2.

[DirkPiggler]

"And Hjerpe gives a little flare up to the Mets hitter."

"Hjerpe was dormant early, but has really broken out of late."

[bravesfanMatt]

"Hjerpe was dormant early, but has really broken out of late."

If that is the case then you really want to stay away from him right now

[clvclv]

Baseball America has an updated mock with us taking RHP Cade Horton from Oklahoma.

He has no question been the biggest riser in the last month or two. BA recently said he's become a top two round pick, so maybe we could get a discount on him He is a draft-eligible sophomore though, so maybe that wouldn't work out with that much leverage. I'm intrigued though. He went to Oklahoma as a two-way guy but had TJ in 2020 after enrolling. He started out really rough in 2022 but came on extremely strong over the second half of the year. He was a huge part of them playing for the national championship. BA says he was 94-5, topping at 98 with a high spin fastball with carry up in the zone. Upper 80s slider that BA says earned double plus grades.

I'm usually skeptical of these late breakout guys, but he seems to have a good reason for the slow start as he was coming back from TJ.

Horton's not exactly someone coming from nowhere, but the time he missed with his TJS has led to lots of people "forgetting" who he was earlier.

He was Perfect Game's #34 in the 2020 HS class. Chose Oklahoma over Ole Miss because he was going to get the chance to also play football at OU - was a *elluva QB (385 total yards per game as a senior).

[OcalaBrave]

Then he made a bad choice..

Oklahoma. Where the men are men and the women are too.

[Carp]

He’s bitter because he appears to be incredibly wrong about Kyle Wright, despite being condescending about it from the beginning. He also said hyperbolic things like Wright was the worst prospect he’s ever seen.

He also said Langeliers was a terrible pick. Good call there as well.

[Carp]

Where is Rocker being mocked at this year?

[clvclv]

Where is Rocker being mocked at this year?

No one can seem to come up with a consensus on him since they haven't been privy to the medicals and the fact that he's only thrown for limited stints in games. Have seen him range from the early teens to outside of the First Round at different times.

Depending on the medicals, he's probably at least a little interesting to the Braves as a potential fast-mover who could help in either the rotation or pen while everyone is still under control. Just really leery of those medicals - what the Mutts' staff saw must've been really bad considering money isn't an issue for them and the fact they passed even though he was considered such a steal where they picked him.

[Carp]

Mets medical team hasn't exactly been known for being all that great over the past few years. Though, I don't know if they've changed staffs recently with new ownership/front office.

[cajunrevenge]

He’s bitter because he appears to be incredibly wrong about Kyle Wright, despite being condescending about it from the beginning. He also said hyperbolic things like Wright was the worst prospect he’s ever seen.


I don't know what makes you think a Braves player performing well upsets me. I am not ready to concede on Wright just yet. I have not seen a forensic audit of his stats to prove they are real. I have no doubt once all the legal runs are counted he will still suck. In all seriousness, no pitcher had ever had a fluky good 2 months.

[zbhargrove]

I don't know what makes you think a Braves player performing well upsets me. I am not ready to concede on Wright just yet. I have not seen a forensic audit of his stats to prove they are real. I have no doubt once all the legal runs are counted he will still suck. In all seriousness, no pitcher had ever had a fluky good 2 months.

Usually if it’s flukey there is a sign in the analytics and/or statcast data. All of that data says there’s nothing flukey about what he has done this year

[cajunrevenge]

We shall see. If he completes a full season of this I was wrong that he would never do that. If he finishes the season strong and starts next year I will concede I was wrong about him. What I dont understand is why anyone thinks I was or am rooting against him. As long as he is a Brave I will and always have rooted for him. From what I have seen he is an 80 grade person.

[Hudson2]

If Rocker is there he’d be hard to pass up on. He could be ready pretty quick to help out the MLB team and has a ton of talent. If he would have been at a big school this year he’d be talked about as a top 5-10 pick.

[thewupk]

Draft Kumar and let pitch down the stretch to help beat the Mets for the division. Would be pretty funny.

[bravesfanMatt]

No way Rocker falls to us... if he is there and we don't take him then we failed, PERIOD!!!!!


ETA... maybe not PERIOD!! there are cases were Rocker is not the best choice. But I am on board with an risky, high reward type guy... I think a few TJ pitchers are linked to us.. that one from Alabama comes to mind.

[Hudson2]

No way Rocker falls to us... if he is there and we don't take him then we failed, PERIOD!!!!!


ETA... maybe not PERIOD!! there are cases were Rocker is not the best choice. But I am on board with an risky, high reward type guy... I think a few TJ pitchers are linked to us.. that one from Alabama comes to mind.

He’s ranked at the end of the 1st top of the 2nd round so I could see him sitting there when we pick. If he is he shouldn’t make it pass us.

[Hudson2]

MLB.com has Rocker going 39th to the Padres.

[Carp]

Rocker checks a lot of boxes for us:

College Pitcher? Check

Vanderbilt player? Check.

High upside arm with injury concerns? Check.

[Hudson2]

Rocker checks a lot of boxes for us:

College Pitcher? Check

Vanderbilt player? Check.

High upside arm with injury concerns? Check.

He had minor shoulder surgery I believe in the offseason and has looked good since coming back.

[Tapate50]

I feel like 39th would be late. A contender would love to have him where they could probably insert a fast mover like that.

[clvclv]

MLB.com has Rocker going 39th to the Padres.

Funny - Anthony Castrovince predicted this morning on MLB Central that they are going to take him at #15.

[Hudson2]

Funny - Anthony Castrovince predicted this morning on MLB Central that they are going to take him at #15.

I’ve seen the Phillies taking him at 17 several places too.

[Mad Dog Murph]

So basically no one knows anything and he’ll probably drop to the 10th round

[CyYoung31]

Draft Kumar and let pitch down the stretch to help beat the Mets for the division. Would be pretty funny.

Oh, God, I need this.

[IslandBrave]

20. Atlanta Braves — Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.

After trading a couple of pitching prospects to Oakland in the four-player package for Matt Olson, and after having a couple of other prospect stall in their development, the Braves want to add some young arms with big upside. Barriera fits that mode. A wiry, long-limbed Vanderbilt commit from the Fort Lauderdale area, he sits at 94-95 mph with his fastball and has touched 98 mph, and complements it with a sharp slider and improved changeup. — David O’Brien

[jpx7]

20. Atlanta Braves — Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.

After trading a couple of pitching prospects to Oakland in the four-player package for Matt Olson, and after having a couple of other prospect stall in their development, the Braves want to add some young arms with big upside. Barriera fits that mode. A wiry, long-limbed Vanderbilt commit from the Fort Lauderdale area, he sits at 94-95 mph with his fastball and has touched 98 mph, and complements it with a sharp slider and improved changeup. — David O’Brien

Like the sound of some prep upside. Think I'm growing to like the sound of Rocker even more—though either case would mean the team going against the Anthopoulos MO of pushing early-round savings down to later in the draft. However, with the Comp Pick from Freeman's departure, maybe they stay around slot with their first pick, then go underslot in the Comp round.

[clvclv]

20. Atlanta Braves — Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.

After trading a couple of pitching prospects to Oakland in the four-player package for Matt Olson, and after having a couple of other prospect stall in their development, the Braves want to add some young arms with big upside. Barriera fits that mode. A wiry, long-limbed Vanderbilt commit from the Fort Lauderdale area, he sits at 94-95 mph with his fastball and has touched 98 mph, and complements it with a sharp slider and improved changeup. — David O’Brien

As much as I love the idea of picking high school kids with high ceilings DOB is one of the last "sources" I look to for inside info come draft time.

[clvclv]

https://www.sportstalkatl.com/braves-2022-mlb-mock-draft-3-0-3-rounds/

[clvclv]

Pipeline's latest mock has Prielipp as the guy. FWIW, he's the one I want if they're going to take a college arm - he's the one with the highest upside even though you have to deal with his injury.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-july-6-2022?t=mlb-draft-coverage

[CJ9]

Pipeline's latest mock has Prielipp as the guy. FWIW, he's the one I want if they're going to take a college arm - he's the one with the highest upside even though you have to deal with his injury.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-july-6-2022?t=mlb-draft-coverage

Totally agree on Prielipp. Im really not interested in Hjerpe.

[bravesfanMatt]

Totally agree on Prielipp. Im really not interested in Hjerpe.

He is becoming a real pain in the ass.

[Hudson2]

Prielipp and Rocker are the 2 I’m hoping for.

[CyYoung31]

We should have Andruw “leak” some bad info to get Druw to drop to us.

[CJ9]

With the addition of the 35th pick, that adds $2.2 million to the pool. It pushes the draft pool to $10.2 million, which jumps us from 19th biggest pool to 10th biggest. Sunday night will be fun with four picks now.

[CJ9]

Also gives us five of the top 96 picks now (20, 35, 57, 76, 96).

I'm just excited for us to have a big draft again, it's been a while.

[Carp]

We should have Andruw “leak” some bad info to get Druw to drop to us.

Wish he would pull an Eli Manning so we could get him.

[msstate7]

Also gives us five of the top 96 picks now (20, 35, 57, 76, 96).

I'm just excited for us to have a big draft again, it's been a while.

Could you package those and move up like in the nfl?

[Enscheff]

Could you package those and move up like in the nfl?

No, that would potentially add excitement, so MLB doesn't allow it.

[msstate7]

No, that would potentially add excitement, so MLB doesn't allow it.

Garbage. I just posted something similar in the other thread. Mlb draft is a snooze fest

[thewupk]

Garbage. I just posted something similar in the other thread. Mlb draft is a snooze fest

It does suck. But the big difference here is that top picks in the NFL and NBA drafts are going to be playing the following season. The value of these picks are a much more known commodity. The #1 pick in the MLB draft usually doesn't see the show for 3 years. Just a different animal.

[CJ9]

Keith Law's new mock today has us taking Justin Crawford at 20. His notes:

"I think Crawford’s market is somewhere between the Mets’ second pick and here. The Padres could be on him, the Guardians and Atlanta also seem most likely. Atlanta hasn’t taken a high school player in the first round since 2018 (Carter Stewart, who didn’t sign), though."

[jpx7]

Keith Law's new mock today has us taking Justin Crawford at 20. His notes:

"I think Crawford’s market is somewhere between the Mets’ second pick and here. The Padres could be on him, the Guardians and Atlanta also seem most likely. Atlanta hasn’t taken a high school player in the first round since 2018 (Carter Stewart, who didn’t sign), though."

Two-way player, so he checks that box, with elite skills and room for improvement once he focuses on hitting exclusively (à la Michael Harris). Bloodlines are obviously there. I'd be excited if he were one of our top picks.

[clvclv]

Keith Law's new mock today has us taking Justin Crawford at 20. His notes:

"I think Crawford’s market is somewhere between the Mets’ second pick and here. The Padres could be on him, the Guardians and Atlanta also seem most likely. Atlanta hasn’t taken a high school player in the first round since 2018 (Carter Stewart, who didn’t sign), though."

Really wonder if the added pool money doesn't mean they'll go over-slot with a big offer for Lesko if they can get him to slip to #20. They could follow that up with whichever of the college arms (Prielipp/Hjerpe/Harrington/Pallette is there at #35 with extra money available to take anyone (college or HS) that slips with the #57 pick.

[IslandBrave]

Really wonder if the added pool money doesn't mean they'll go over-slot with a big offer for Lesko if they can get him to slip to #20. They could follow that up with whichever of the college arms (Prielipp/Hjerpe/Harrington/Pallette is there at #35 with extra money available to take anyone (college or HS) that slips with the #57 pick.

You’d have to think the Braves have a guy they think they can buy down to 20.

[CJ9]

I wonder if the extra money makes Lesko at 20 more likely. He had TJ in late April, so probably late next season at the earliest for him to make his pro debut. It would probably be pretty costly, too.

But he’s was pretty unquestionably viewed as the best pitcher in this draft before TJ.

[Mad Dog Murph]

He had minor shoulder surgery I believe in the offseason and has looked good since coming back.

That’s what Boras wanted people to believe considering he only released partial records on the procedure and refused to show teams any of the MRI images.

But with that being said, if he is there when the Braves pick they have to take him. Especially since they now also have the 35th pick.

[IslandBrave]

New Pipeline has Braves taking Gabriel Hughes at 20 and Justin Campbell at 35.

[zbhargrove]

I wonder if the extra money makes Lesko at 20 more likely. He had TJ in late April, so probably late next season at the earliest for him to make his pro debut. It would probably be pretty costly, too.

But he’s was pretty unquestionably viewed as the best pitcher in this draft before TJ.

Before TJ, he was pretty much the best SP prospect since Strasburg at least

[Tapate50]

New Pipeline has Braves taking Gabriel Hughes at 20 and Justin Campbell at 35.

That’s a haul

[CJ9]

Baseball America did a mock today of the first 60 picks where a few writers alternated picks based on who they would take, not based on any intel. I do think it's a good general idea of a draft I would like.

They had Tennessee OF Drew Gilbert at 20, Alabama LHP Connor Prielipp at 35, then HS infielder Cameron Smith at 57.

I actually like that Gilbert/Prielipp combo a lot, and it shouldn't break the bank to get those two or two similar players. Then you can spend a decent amount at 57 on a high school player.

[Hudson2]

Baseball America did a mock today of the first 60 picks where a few writers alternated picks based on who they would take, not based on any intel. I do think it's a good general idea of a draft I would like.

They had Tennessee OF Drew Gilbert at 20, Alabama LHP Connor Prielipp at 35, then HS infielder Cameron Smith at 57.

I actually like that Gilbert/Prielipp combo a lot, and it shouldn't break the bank to get those two or two similar players. Then you can spend a decent amount at 57 on a high school player.

I’d like that draft. I think a lot will boil down to who falls. Somebody always does and hopefully they are there at 20. If Rocker or Lesko are there it’ll be hard to pass on them.

[bravesfanMatt]

Wonder if we would have enough money to grab a Rocker/Lesko at 20 and Prielipp at 35... Would that be too pitcher heavy draft.. But any 2 of those 3 would be a potential ace coming up through the system.

[CJ9]

Total speculation by me: I think Chandler Pollard makes a lot of sense as a high schooler for us to take at some point. Athletic middle infielder with power. He’s from 30 minutes west of Atlanta and committed to Washington State. I’d imagine a guy like that would much rather sign with the team he likely grew up rooting for than going to play in college on the other side of the country. Might not even have to go much overslot in that case.

Baseball America has him #113 in their draft ranks, so we likely have to take him with our 3rd or 4th rounder to get him. BA also points out that he just turned 18, so he’s even young for a high school prospect, which model-friendly scouting depts (like ours) tend to favor.

[CJ9]

Kiley's new mock on ESPN posted this morning. He has us taking Oklahoma St RHP Justin Campbell at 20, also mentions Gonzaga RHP Gabriel Hughes, Oregon State LHP Cooper Hjerpe and Campbell RHP Thomas Harrington. Obviously not super exciting names here, but he says at pick 35, he's hearing us taking a Jacob Miller-type upside high school arm or Arkansas 3B Cayden Wallace. Then with our second round pick, he has us linked to UConn (now Tennessee) LHP Reggie Crawford, Mississippi St RHP Landon Sims or Florida LHP Hunter Barco -- three of the biggest guys who had Tommy John this spring. He ends it with "if that plan doesn't work out, upside high school guys is where the money will be spent."

Obviously not super exciting with the pick at 20, but going underslot with that pick definitely should bring in a pretty deep group of players.

Baseball America and Prospects Live are also putting their mocks out today, so we'll see if their info matches.

[DirkPiggler]

Kiley's new mock on ESPN posted this morning. He has us taking Oklahoma St RHP Justin Campbell at 20, also mentions Gonzaga RHP Gabriel Hughes, Oregon State LHP Cooper Hjerpe and Campbell RHP Thomas Harrington. Obviously not super exciting names here, but he says at pick 35, he's hearing us taking a Jacob Miller-type upside high school arm or Arkansas 3B Cayden Wallace. Then with our second round pick, he has us linked to UConn (now Tennessee) LHP Reggie Crawford, Mississippi St RHP Landon Sims or Florida LHP Hunter Barco -- three of the biggest guys who had Tommy John this spring. He ends it with "if that plan doesn't work out, upside high school guys is where the money will be spent."

Obviously not super exciting with the pick at 20, but going underslot with that pick definitely should bring in a pretty deep group of players.

Baseball America and Prospects Live are also putting their mocks out today, so we'll see if their info matches.

Would love to see Wallace in the Braves system. He's a decent contact guy with good but not elite power, plus defender at both 3B (2022) and corner OF (2021). Also a draft-eligible sophomore, so younger than most college draftees. Probably the best offensive player to come from the state of Arkansas in a long time...maybe since Torii Hunter.

[Mad Dog Murph]

Would love to see Wallace in the Braves system. He's a decent contact guy with good but not elite power, plus defender at both 3B (2022) and corner OF (2021). Also a draft-eligible sophomore, so younger than most college draftees. Probably the best offensive player to come from the state of Arkansas in a long time...maybe since Torii Hunter.

He turns 21 next month so your talking a few months younger, at most. Not that it really matters. I have seen him play a few times and liked his skill set.

[CJ9]

Would love to see Wallace in the Braves system. He's a decent contact guy with good but not elite power, plus defender at both 3B (2022) and corner OF (2021). Also a draft-eligible sophomore, so younger than most college draftees. Probably the best offensive player to come from the state of Arkansas in a long time...maybe since Torii Hunter.

Interesting. His stat line looks pretty good. I read Keith Law's scouting report, and he has him in the 70s for this draft while citing pitch recognition concerns. That definitely scares me some.

[Hudson2]

AA is so unpredictable who knows what he’ll do. I’m sure they’ll spread the money around instead of getting a stud early. But I hope is Lesko is there they take him.

[CJ9]

Prospects Live mock: https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022-mlb-mock-draft-n78w7-st9r4-wa35p-2n5ls

Our pick at 20:

Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga
The Braves love Horton, but that isn’t happening. They’re also all over Mikey Romero, but this seems a little rich for the pick unless it’s a significant under-slot. I think it boils down to Hughes or Oklahoma State righty Justin Campbell. This seems like the ceiling for Campbell.

At pick 35, it's Oklahoma St RHP Justin Campbell. At 57, it's Iowa RHP Adam Mazur.

Three college righties in our first three picks would be boring, but Romero is a name I haven't seen mentioned anywhere else. His reports say he's a really good defender at shortstop who's more hit over power now.

[DirkPiggler]

Interesting. His stat line looks pretty good. I read Keith Law's scouting report, and he has him in the 70s for this draft while citing pitch recognition concerns. That definitely scares me some.

If I had to pick a concern about him that's what it would be as well, but I don't see it as something that couldn't be fixed relatively easily. He goes through spells where he has trouble picking up the slider, but then usually adjusts fairly quickly.

I may be underselling his power a bit. In a bit of a meteorological anomaly, for just about every game played at Baum-Walker in the first 2/3 or so of the season the wind was blowing straight in at 10-plus miles per hour, usually heavy on the plus part. I saw more balls than ever this year that I thought were easily gone off the bat end up caught at the wall. It probably cost Cayden at least 3-5 home runs.

[CJ9]

Baseball America mock has us taking Lesko at 20. Also says "They are linked to plenty of other college arms as well and I’ve also heard them linked to Oklahoma shortstop Peyton Graham." They're adding a new section of names they've heard teams connected to later in the draft - here's the three for us: North Carolina HS C Brooks Brannon, Washington HS RHP JR Ritchie, Oklahoma State RHP/3B Nolan McLean.

At 35, they have Cal OF Dylan Beavers. First time I've seen him connected to the Braves anywhere.

[bravesfanMatt]

have the mocks ever gotten us right since AA been here.. serious question. Seems like we are always surprised in the first round by our pick.

[CJ9]

have the mocks ever gotten us right since AA been here.. serious question. Seems like we are always surprised in the first round by our pick.

Definitely been rough since Dana Brown took over. I think quite a few got Langeliers right if I'm remembering correctly, but Shuster and Cusick weren't connected to Atlanta much. And it's obviously easier to predict earlier picks like Langeliers. I'm more interested in the overall names that are connected to us.

[CJ9]

Baseball America just put their top tools out. They have Lesko as the top fastball, changeup and control in the high school class. Pretty impressive.

[clvclv]

Baseball America mock has us taking Lesko at 20. Also says "They are linked to plenty of other college arms as well and I’ve also heard them linked to Oklahoma shortstop Peyton Graham." They're adding a new section of names they've heard teams connected to later in the draft - here's the three for us: North Carolina HS C Brooks Brannon, Washington HS RHP JR Ritchie, Oklahoma State RHP/3B Nolan McLean.

At 35, they have Cal OF Dylan Beavers. First time I've seen him connected to the Braves anywhere.

Love my "Carolina Kids", but Brannon's iffy to stay behind the plate. Randleman's about 45 miles west of Chapel Thrill for those looking for Randleman High.

[Nerfherders]

Drafts are almost impossible to predict after the first 7 or so picks. Just look at the mocks in the past 3 months - it's been a different guy for us every time, but the first 7 guys don't change much. There are too many factors in an MLB draft including signability and pool money. Needs are also not as much of a factor, obviously.

[zbhargrove]

Drafts are almost impossible to predict after the first 7 or so picks. Just look at the mocks in the past 3 months - it's been a different guy for us every time, but the first 7 guys don't change much. There are too many factors in an MLB draft including signability and pool money. Needs are also not as much of a factor, obviously.

We all know this…

[Nerfherders]

Well, apparently someone didn't because they asked the question. :P

[Heyward]

Baseball America just put their top tools out. They have Lesko as the top fastball, changeup and control in the high school class. Pretty impressive.

Him or Rocker if they were there are very tempting. Obviously would have to go over-slot, but dont know if thats something AA would do, spending a good bit of the money on one player. Given we need alot of players after the Olson deal and the overall system just not being good right now.

[CJ9]

Keith Law updated his mock with us taking Lesko at 20. Also says he’s heard Cade Horton with our pick, but most people expect him gone by 20.

[Tapate50]

Keith Law updated his mock with us taking Lesko at 20. Also says he’s heard Cade Horton with our pick, but most people expect him gone by 20.

Definitely take Lesko there

[Carp]

Rocker is my pick. Would allow us to deal Ian either at the deadline for a rental like Thor, or possibly in the winter in a larger package for a LF. And if Rocker is legit, he gives you a stacked rotation going forward with Strider and Fried, possibly Soroka and a free agent SP.

[msstate7]

Rocker is my pick. Would allow us to deal Ian either at the deadline for a rental like Thor, or possibly in the winter in a larger package for a LF. And if Rocker is legit, he gives you a stacked rotation going forward with Strider and Fried, possibly Soroka and a free agent SP.

Doesn't look to be much difference between Ian and Thor in fWAR, FIP, or xFIP

[chop2chip]

Doesn't look to be much difference between Ian and Thor in fWAR, FIP, or xFIP

Ian has been bad but also a bit unlucky. He’s pitched fine as a backend starter. I see an argument for trading for Syndergaard and his rest of season salary (depth, Strider/Soroka insurance, etc.), but I wouldn’t give up a real asset for that pleasure.

[Heyward]

Rocker is my pick. Would allow us to deal Ian either at the deadline for a rental like Thor, or possibly in the winter in a larger package for a LF. And if Rocker is legit, he gives you a stacked rotation going forward with Strider and Fried, possibly Soroka and a free agent SP.

I'm not against trading Ian, but trading him for Thor is a bad use of resources.

[jpx7]

Him or Rocker if they were there are very tempting. Obviously would have to go over-slot, but dont know if thats something AA would do, spending a good bit of the money on one player. Given we need alot of players after the Olson deal and the overall system just not being good right now.

If Lesko is there, I think you have to take him. Then go way underslot with the Royals pick, then play it straight up after that.

[Hudson2]

Yeah you don’t pass up on a potential stud if he’s there just bc you wanna add more players.

[striker42]

Yeah you don’t pass up on a potential stud if he’s there just bc you wanna add more players.

This. Better to take a guy with a 50% chance of paying off over two guys with 20% chances of paying off.

Note, these numbers are not intended to reflect the reality of the chances of a pick paying off, it's just to show the relative chances of one highly regarded pick over two lesser picks.

[zbhargrove]

All I heard about before TJS was that Lesko is like the best pitching prospect in a decade. If you can get that with how much success we’ve had with TJS guys, you do it

[CJ9]

Some Lesko notes from Kiley’s prospect rankings on ESPN. He has him #8 overall:

“I would argue he's the best prep pitching product in years, maybe a decade.”

“I still believe Lesko has the best shot to become a major league ace from the prep ranks in a long time; he has the best changeup I've ever seen below the big league level and looks like a Walker Buehler clone when he's not throwing that pitch. I've rounded down on his ranking due to the Tommy John surgery, but I'm just as enthusiastic that Lesko could be the dude you tell your kids about from this draft.”

[Heyward]

Yeah you probably cant pass on Lesko or Rocker if they are there. Just probably gotta go way underslot with the Royals pick.

[MadduxFanII]

If Lesko is what everyone says he is, it's hard to imagine Tommy John really sending him plummeting that far down the draft board. I don't want to dismiss what it is to go through TJS, but it's a pretty straightforward and well-understood procedure by this point and we know what recovery looks like. It's not like he has a torn labrum or thoracic outlet syndrome.

[msstate7]

Where is Landon sims (miss st) expected to go? I would love for the braves to end up with him. At worst, he'd end up a high leverage reliever

[Hudson2]

Where is Landon sims (miss st) expected to go? I would love for the braves to end up with him. At worst, he'd end up a high leverage reliever

He should be there at 35.

[buck75]

Landon Sims has been mocked between 40-76 recently.

[CJ9]

With Law and Baseball America now having us taking Lesko at 20, Fangraphs is as well and even says the trade for the Royals pick was to ensure we have the money for him.

20. Atlanta Braves
Pick: Dylan Lesko, SP, Buford HS (GA)
There is lots of buzz that part of Atlanta’s comp pick acquisition was to help ensure that they could land Lesko, and that Lesko is motivated to be a Brave. If their pocket gets picked, then Oklahoma right-hander Cade Horton (a tip-of-the-iceberg guy with a two-way history, both Braves draft trends) and Tennessee right-hander Blade Tidwell are possibilities. Tidwell’s fastball shape is a little less Braves-y.

Longenhagen later mocks Arkansas 3B Cayden Wallace to us at 35.

[CJ9]

The most intriguing thing of that Fangraphs blurb is that Lesko wants to be a Brave. If that’s true, we’ll certainly have to go over slot for him, but maybe not as much as we thought.

[Hudson2]

Lesko would be an amazing pick and would be huge to getting the farm shaped back up. I’m afraid the Padres or Phillies will snatch him up before us but hopefully not.

[Jay212033]

Getting Lesko would be insane. Would definitely help restock the farm.

[atl717]

Lesko is not making it to us. He’s way too good and wants to sign.

[Jay212033]

Lesko is not making it to us. He’s way too good and wants to sign.

Reverse psychology?! Players have a way of picking where they want to play or they could go the Rocker route.

[atl717]

To some degree. The talent level of Lesko is immense. Some team wants the opportunity to work something out with him.

[Jay212033]

In any situation, IF he falls to the Braves that would be an immediate upgrade to the farm system that's bare from graduation and trade.

[Heyward]

Yeah, i dont know if Lesko makes it to us. I'd go over-slot for sure on him then under-slot with the Royals pick if we can get him though.

[IslandBrave]

Lesko would be an amazing pick and would be huge to getting the farm shaped back up. I’m afraid the Padres or Phillies will snatch him up before us but hopefully not.

He could easily tell those teams it would take $5MM to sign him. Especially if he has a deal
With the Braves and wants to be there.

[CJ9]

He could easily tell those teams it would take $5MM to sign him. Especially if he has a deal
With the Braves and wants to be there.

Agreed. He’s also got the ultimate leverage - he’s committed to Vanderbilt.

[WaitingFor2017]

He could easily tell those teams it would take $5MM to sign him. Especially if he has a deal
With the Braves and wants to be there.

Didn't David Wright do this to every team to ensure the Mets got him?

[CJ9]

New Baseball America mock has OK State RHP Justin Campbell as the pick at 20. Lesko goes 16 to Cleveland.

Would assume Campbell is underslot, and then they have us taking high school RHP Owen Murphy at 35.

[zbhargrove]

The Lesko chatter is exciting but I refuse to get my hopes up

[CyYoung31]

Druw Jones apparently telling teams that he intends to honor his commitment to play at Vanderbilt unless he is drafted by the Braves.

Wow.

[msstate7]

Druw Jones apparently telling teams that he intends to honor his commitment to play at Vanderbilt unless he is drafted by the Braves.

Wow.

That's a win-win for you, huh?

[CyYoung31]

That's a win-win for you, huh?

Seems too good to be true.

[msstate7]

Seems too good to be true.

He's got a wealthy dad (should be anyway), so who knows?

[Enscheff]

There’s going to be issues of players are allowed to start dictating which team they go to. As cool as it would be to get players like Jones and Lesko, AA better be treading with the utmost care here.

[msstate7]

There’s going to be issues of players are allowed to start dictating which team they go to. As cool as it would be to get players like Jones and Lesko, AA better be treading with the utmost care here.

We getting both with our 1st 2 picks? Haha

[Enscheff]

We getting both with our 1st 2 picks? Haha

I imagine the Braves would punt the entire rest of their draft to get both guys, and then AA would be investigated harshly. If anything shady was found he would be given the Coppy treatment.

[CJ9]

Kiley has Lesko going 15 now. Gonzaga RHP Gabriel Hughes to us at 20 then HS RHP Jacob Miller at 35. Reggie Crawford still at 57.

[Heyward]

Wish you could trade draft picks, would make the draft alot more exciting. What makes the NFL draft so fun.

[SJ24]

Druw Jones apparently telling teams that he intends to honor his commitment to play at Vanderbilt unless he is drafted by the Braves.

Wow.

I can't believe you guys are falling for this.

I've read too many CyYoung31 posts.

[The Chosen One]

We gonna trade Harris for Soto so we can draft Druw LOL

[The Chosen One]

I imagine the Braves would punt the entire rest of their draft to get both guys, and then AA would be investigated harshly. If anything shady was found he would be given the Coppy treatment.

They can't take away that 2021 banner baby.

That flag flies forever.

[Heyward]

Kiley has Lesko going 15 now. Gonzaga RHP Gabriel Hughes to us at 20 then HS RHP Jacob Miller at 35. Reggie Crawford still at 57.

The Lesko noise was too good to be true. Should be able to get someone good at least.

[CJ9]

Pretty much every mock that has updated since the morning has Lesko going 15 to San Diego or 16 to Cincinnati.

[CJ9]

A lot of mocks shifting to us taking Gabriel Hughes at 20. Fangraphs said his fastball shape doesn’t fit what our scouting department values, so we’ll see.

[Carp]

Lesko or Rocker please.

[CrimsonCowboy]

Some things I’ve read on Twitter suggest the O’s may go Temarr Johnson with the first pick and not Jones

[CrimsonCowboy]

Love the boos for Manfred

[Hudson2]

Manfred is garbage

[Hudson2]

Jackson Holliday 1st pick

[CrimsonCowboy]

Wait, Matt Holliday’s kid? Dang, I’m getting old

[Hudson2]

Yep. He looks like he’s 12

[Hudson2]

Orioles should have a pretty good team in a couple of years.

[CrimsonCowboy]

My buddy who’s a Diamondbacks fan is real happy right now

[Heyward]

Wow Rocker top 3!!

[CrimsonCowboy]

Woah!!!

[Hudson2]

Kumar Rocker just went 3rd holy crap!

[Hudson2]

I can’t believe he went that high.

[CrimsonCowboy]

Joins his college teammate Jack Leiter in the Rangers organization

[CrimsonCowboy]

Look at Andruw just beaming

[CJ9]

Pretty stunning. It would make sense if it’s underslot, and I’m sure it is. But Texas doesn’t pick again until the fourth round. Most of the big money high school upside guys will be gone by then.

[Hudson2]

Temarr Johnson to Pittsburg

[msstate7]

I don't follow the drafts... any chance Berry from lsu is there at 20?

[The Chosen One]

I wonder if Kumar throws as hard as his dad did for us.

[Heyward]

I don't follow the drafts... any chance Berry from lsu is there at 20?

Marlins just took him.

[CrimsonCowboy]

I wonder if Kumar throws as hard as his dad did for us.

Good one

[CrimsonCowboy]

I don't follow the drafts... any chance Berry from lsu is there at 20?

Nah

[smootness]

I wonder if Kumar throws as hard as his dad did for us.

Ya know, I could see John naming his kid Kumar.

[Hudson2]

Cade Horton goes 7th. A lot of people had him going to us. Gonna be some good names that fall.

[CrimsonCowboy]

Cade Horton to the Cubs

[msstate7]

Ya know, I could see John naming his kid Kumar.

Lol

[CrimsonCowboy]

I watched Horton in the CWS against Ole Miss. I was impressed with him

[jpx7]

My buddy who’s a Diamondbacks fan is real happy right now

Can’t wait for them to trade him, David Peralta, and a reliever to the Braves for Ian Anderson.

[smootness]

Pretty crazy the Twins were able to get Brooks Lee at 8.

[Tapate50]

I watched Horton in the CWS against Ole Miss. I was impressed with him

Didn’t realize he went to OU for QB.

Now focusing on only pitching should help a lot for him. What an athlete

[Tapate50]

Straight up skirt for Gavin Cross’ girl off the rip. Yikes

[CrimsonCowboy]

Can’t wait for them to trade him, David Peralta, and a reliever to the Braves for Ian Anderson.

He may never talk to me again if that happened. Haha

[The Chosen One]

Ya know, I could see John naming his kid Kumar.

comeback tour with his new book.

[Heyward]

Hughes goes top 10.

[Hudson2]

Hughes from Gonzaga off the board. He was picked a lot at 20

[CrimsonCowboy]

There goes Gabe Hughes

[CJ9]

Wow, there goes Hughes. Can’t believe Parada is still available.

[smootness]

I know it's the MLB draft and it's just different, but pretty crazy to see so many of the top 10 be guys ranked quite a bit lower. Interesting to see who ends up falling to us.

[jpx7]

Straight up skirt for Gavin Cross’ girl off the rip. Yikes

Thought that was his mom, actually—but then I realized it was Cy’s mom.

[Heyward]

I know it's the MLB draft and it's just different, but pretty crazy to see so many of the top 10 be guys ranked quite a bit lower. Interesting to see who ends up falling to us.

For Lesko to fall, sounds like we gotta sweat 15-16. But i just cant see him fall that low, doesnt seem possible. There's a ton of good players left though.

[CrimsonCowboy]

Braves minor league writer:
1548821946258817026

[Heyward]

Good pick by the Mets, unfortunately.

[CrimsonCowboy]

Parada to the Mets

[IslandBrave]

For Lesko to fall, sounds like we gotta sweat 15-16. But i just cant see him fall that low, doesnt seem possible. There's a ton of good players left though.

He can easily tell them he’s going to Vandy and not to draft him. If he falls to 20, it’s bc he only wants to play for Atlanta.

[CrimsonCowboy]

Jace Jung to
Detroit

[ramadon101]

Straight up skirt for Gavin Cross’ girl off the rip. Yikes

What?

[CrimsonCowboy]

Zach Neto to the Angels

[Heyward]

Next 3 picks is probably where Lesko would go.

[CJ9]

Braves minor league writer:
1548821946258817026

Pretty weird tweet. Who has gone in the first 13 picks that wasnt expected to? Maybe Rocker?

[IslandBrave]

Pretty weird tweet. Who has gone in the first 13 picks that wasnt expected to? Maybe Rocker?

Hughes. Collier’s still there.

[smootness]

Rocker, Hughes, and Horton

[CrimsonCowboy]

Jett Williams to the Mets

[zbhargrove]

Pretty weird tweet. Who has gone in the first 13 picks that wasnt expected to? Maybe Rocker?

Rocker and Hughes were expected to be in the top 20 or 30, not the top 10... that means more opportunity for someone big to fall

EDIT: Horton too

[CJ9]

So now that the Mets are gone, don’t we have more money than the teams picking 15-19? Could we pay Collier down to 20?

[smootness]

Jett Williams is now another that was projected to still be there when we picked that has gone.

Hopefully one of the teams that might have taken Lesko jumps on Collier instead.

[CJ9]

Rocker and Hughes were expected to be in the top 20 or 30, not the top 10... that means more opportunity for someone big to fall

I should’ve changed the number in my post, but with the time stamp on it, he tweeted that before Hughes was taken. Just seemed weird.

[Tapate50]

A few have fallen that weren’t expected. All good for us tbh…

[Heyward]

Pretty weird tweet. Who has gone in the first 13 picks that wasnt expected to? Maybe Rocker?

Rocker, Hughes, and Horton all went a little higher than expected. Lesko, Collier still there for now.

[CrimsonCowboy]

Just a little note I just saw, Jackson Holliday was the first son of a major leaguer to be drafted #1 overall since Ken Griffey Jr

[Hudson2]

We should get a pretty good player at 20 with how it’s went so far. Collier hasn’t been taken yet. I hope we don’t take a C

[Heyward]

Jett Williams is now another that was projected to still be there when we picked that has gone.

Hopefully one of the teams that might have taken Lesko jumps on Collier instead.

SD/CLE/PHI is probably where you gotta hope Lesko doesnt go.