Ukraine

[Krgrecw]

****s about to get real nasty. This is going to end sad. The Pro-Russian gov't vs the pro-western people.



Curious to see what happens if the Ukraine gov't starts to fall. Would Putin have the balls to send in help and if so would the West intervene? I would hope.

[Hawk]

I am currently traveling in Eastern Europe. I really wanted to go to the Ukraine, and even have a cheap ticket booked into Kiev (my main goal was to make it to Chernobyl), but at this point don't believe I would feel particularly safe in the city. Was in Athens and Spain for their rioting last fall, Athens being particularly insane, but bloodlust seems to be on the menu in Kiev.

[The Chosen One]

Isn't it kind of interesting that none of the major news websites have any coverage of this whatsover?

I go on the frontpage and read the headlines of:

cnn.com = Justin Beiber arrested on DUI
foxnews.com = NSA watchdog wants end to wiretapping
USAToday = Income Inequality.


Ukraine's government is about to collapse, and your average person wouldn't know it here. When Egypt was being overthrown, it was covered 24/7.

[zitothebrave]

Meanwhile BBC News is right on it.

[Krgrecw]

Loves of updated news and a livestream here:
http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1vwshh/ukraine_revolt_livestream_sticky_post/


Vitali Klitschko, WBC heavyweight champion and leader of a political group which is protesting, got sprayed in the face with a fire extinguisher. I bet that dude ran

[thethe]

Meanwhile BBC News is right on it.

Only News I read/watch.

[50PoundHead]

Loves of updated news and a livestream here:
http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1vwshh/ukraine_revolt_livestream_sticky_post/


Vitali Klitschko, WBC heavyweight champion and leader of a political group which is protesting, got sprayed in the face with a fire extinguisher. I bet that dude ran

Thanks for posting the reddit link. I'm a techno-crip and while I'd heard of reddit, I didn't really realize how valuable it is. Thanks again.

Edit: Here are couple of recent links from The New York Review of Books.

Link #1 (Article from January 9, 2014 issue): http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/jan/09/fighting-soul-ukraine/?insrc=toc

Link #2 (Blog post from January 18): http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/jan/18/ukraine-new-dictatorship/?insrc=wbll

[Krgrecw]

Yeah 50, I finally gave reddit a serious look a few weeks back and feel in love with it. Probably the best site on the 'net. They have sub forums for everything.

[goldfly]

Hope the struggle of the people is rewarded in the Ukraine

[Krgrecw]

Things getting out of control. Will Putin give up Ukraine? I hope he would.

[goldfly]

Meanwhile BBC News is right on it.


Only News I read/watch.

al jazeera is the best imo

[50PoundHead]

The thing that is interesting here is that the protesters have basically told the protest leaders who agreed to a truce, "We don't want no stinkin' truce."

Reminds me of an anecdote. There was a coup in a third world country where the most widely-recognized leader of the coup was agitating both within the country and internationally for the overthrow of the government. All the major news outlets featured this individual in their coverage. The coup was successful and within a month, the supposed leader was sentenced to a prison term by the government that emerged from the coup. On his way to prison, a journalist asked, "Weren''t you the leader of the coup?" to which the soon-to-be-imprisoned former leader replied "I guess the coup I was leading isn't the coup that won."

This is going to get messy. I think Putin has to let them go. If he gets crosswise with Ukraine, the oil won't flow and the Russian economy will take a big hit. I don't think he could effectively control Ukraine by force.

[Krgrecw]

I don't believe the protestors can accept a truce. There's no guarantee the government will hold on to what they agree to. I wouldn't stop until the president(?) steps down.

[50PoundHead]

I don't believe the protestors can accept a truce. There's no guarantee the government will hold on to what they agree to. I wouldn't stop until the president(?) steps down.

Likely true, but it sure puts the protest leaders in an uncomfortable spot. They'll be viewed as traitors.

[thethe]

We are effed. Here comes another world war. I wonder where China stands with the Russians now.

[zitothebrave]

SImilar situation to Georgia. I think there will be a compromise.

[Krgrecw]

We are effed. Here comes another world war. I wonder where China stands with the Russians now.

Obamas a pussy. He already gave up the missile sites in Europe to appease Putin. Do I think he's going to suddenly react to this? Nope. He should though.

[zitothebrave]

Obamas a pussy. He already gave up the missile sites in Europe to appease Putin. Do I think he's going to suddenly react to this? Nope. He should though.

:facepalm:

[Krgrecw]

Zito if you were Obama what would you do? Ask Putin to stop?

[thethe]

Zito if you were Obama what would you do? Ask Putin to stop?

The "threat" is that they will boycott the G8 Summit in Russia. WOW!

[zitothebrave]

Zito if you were Obama what would you do? Ask Putin to stop?

I wouldn't incite potentially WW3. You don't treat Russia the same way you treat other countries, a war between the US and Russia can end very fast with most if not all of the world being destroyed.

[Krgrecw]

I wouldn't incite potentially WW3. You don't treat Russia the same way you treat other countries, a war between the US and Russia can end very fast with most if not all of the world being destroyed.



So what would you do that would work? What message can you send to make him pull out and back off?

[thethe]

I wouldn't incite potentially WW3. You don't treat Russia the same way you treat other countries, a war between the US and Russia can end very fast with most if not all of the world being destroyed.

So them invading Ukraine is tolerable? You have to react to this.

[Krgrecw]

So them invading Ukraine is tolerable? You have to react to this.



And if you don't you're a pussy and it means they win and are a bigger man

If someone goes to prison the most important thing is to stand your ground for obvious reasons. Same thing in life. Same thing here. You stand up for yourself


During the 2008 presidential campaign, Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin warned that if Senator Barack Obama were elected president, his "indecision" and "moral equivalence" may encourage Russia's Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine.
Palin said then:
After the Russian Army invaded the nation of Georgia, Senator Obama's reaction was one of indecision and moral equivalence, the kind of response that would only encourage Russia's Putin to invade Ukraine next.


That's what happens when you don't stand your ground and keep people in check. Palins got bigger balls then Obama

[The Chosen One]

So them invading Ukraine is tolerable? You have to react to this.
I'd ask for West Ukraine and East Ukraine like Germany prior. Southeast Ukraine is in love with Putin and Russia. Serbia Croatia Montenegro Kosovo Slovakia Czech Republic all have broken up over ethnic ideological and inner differences.

[zitothebrave]

So them invading Ukraine is tolerable? You have to react to this.

Never said it's tolerable.

I don't have access to all the diplomatic, etc. Information and tools that the president has access to. I have no clue how to handle it.

That said, there's no way I get troops involved if Congress doesn't declare war. At the very least the UN has to pass a resolution.

[zitothebrave]

That's what happens when you don't stand your ground and keep people in check. Palins got bigger balls then Obama

What are you even talking about? Do you get all your political information from the comments section on yahoo?

[thethe]

I'd ask for West Ukraine and East Ukraine like Germany prior. Southeast Ukraine is in love with Putin and Russia. Serbia Croatia Montenegro Kosovo Slovakia Czech Republic all have broken up over ethnic ideological and inner differences.

I think this could be a potential solution but just another example of Putin acting up and gaining something.

[zitothebrave]

I think this could be a potential solution but just another example of Putin acting up and gaining something.

There's an old saying about pride and falling. Don't recall what it is. But at some point the Russian people will oust Putin especially if he keeps this up.

[thethe]

There's an old saying about pride and falling. Don't recall what it is. But at some point the Russian people will oust Putin especially if he keeps this up.

Or they could rally around him. There is no love lost for the west in Russia. There will always be support for Putin and his ilk.

[The Chosen One]

I think this could be a potential solution but just another example of Putin acting up and gaining something.

Gaining what? Southeast Ukraine is a shizzho. The best cities are north and west. Putin would gain a third world country.

[Gary82]

Zito if you were Obama what would you do? Ask Putin to stop?

You seek out a diplomatic solution. All I know is that we won't go to war directly with Russia. The US has a pretty damn good track record when it comes to not going to war directly with Russia....or whatever they have been called.

[zitothebrave]

Or they could rally around him. There is no love lost for the west in Russia. There will always be support for Putin and his ilk.

There will always be support for lunatics. See people considering voting for Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachmann or a number of fringe candidates who're bat**** insane.

Eventually Putin will fail.

[thethe]

There will always be support for lunatics. See people considering voting for Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachmann or a number of fringe candidates who're bat**** insane.

Eventually Putin will fail.

You are really comparing the two levels of influence. Come on Zito...thats a joke.

[zitothebrave]

You are really comparing the two levels of influence. Come on Zito...thats a joke.

Putin for sure has more control. But remember in the end the ultimate goal for people as a society is to improve or revolt. That's what happened in the Ukraine. It will happen in Russia as well if they start reverting back to COld War era Russia where people were impoverished and so on so forth.

[Krgrecw]

You seek out a diplomatic solution. All I know is that we won't go to war directly with Russia. The US has a pretty damn good track record when it comes to not going to war directly with Russia....or whatever they have been called.


What diplomatic solution is there? Do you ask Putin to please leave Ukraine alone? Even with cherries on top? What if he doesn't? He never pulled his forces all the way out of Georgia. Ask yourself why would Putin stop if no one physically makes him stop? If




If I were Obama id tell putin that tomorrow afternoon id use every resource I have to start massive street demonstrations all throught Russia to overthrow his regime if he doesn't pull his forces out of Ukraine. If there's one thing Putin is scared of it's his people. That's why he imprisons and kills his opposition.

[goldfly]

i was curious how this thread was going to go today

and i see it has a person thinking Palin is a sane person to speak on foreign matters

thank you for the laugh

[zitothebrave]

What diplomatic solution is there? Do you ask Putin to please leave Ukraine alone? Even with cherries on top? What if he doesn't? He never pulled his forces all the way out of Georgia. Ask yourself why would Putin stop if no one physically makes him stop? If




If I were Obama id tell putin that tomorrow afternoon id use every resource I have to start massive street demonstrations all throught Russia to overthrow his regime if he doesn't pull his forces out of Ukraine. If there's one thing Putin is scared of it's his people. That's why he imprisons and kills his opposition.

So basically, you think looking good is more important than not having a nuclear war.

[Krgrecw]

Nuclear war is a joke. Don't you think they'd die too? What benefit would they have?



Also goldfly care to admit that Palin was right about this? Instead of calling her an idiot , with personal attacks, was she right or wrong?

[Oklahomahawk]

Putin is an evil and very dangerous man. I've always said that, even back to when W said something about that he could see into his soul (through his eyes) and that he felt like he was an OK dude or something along those lines. Putin is a old line hard core KGB officer who was just born at the wrong time to fit in, IMO.

[Krgrecw]

Putin is an evil and very dangerous man. I've always said that, even back to when W said something about that he could see into his soul (through his eyes) and that he felt like he was an OK dude or something along those lines. Putin is a old line hard core KGB officer who was just born at the wrong time to fit in, IMO.





He just had the Russia parliament authorize military force in Ukraine. Putins no joke. He wants to reclaim the USSR and he'll try to do it

[goldfly]

Also goldfly care to admit that Palin was right about this? Instead of calling her an idiot , with personal attacks, was she right or wrong?

na, i am fine
i didn't make a personal attack
no idea

[yeezus]

LOL "Palin's got bigger balls than Obama."
Give me a freaking break. She's a republican, so she's more pro-war, but she's also less tactful and less intelligent.
We can't just say "hey russia we're going to muuuuuurder you if you don't stop!" Though, that is likely what Palin would do.
We have no inherent responsibility to do anything. The memorandum we signed with the UK does not require us to "protect" Ukraine from invasion. We have to fix our own country. We do not have responsibility to be world police.

And people wonder why our economy was so effed up. The two wars we were fighting certainly didn't help. And now some want to jump in to another one that we have no real business in. This is an incredibly complex situation, and saying Obama is a "pussy" for not declaring that we will invade is so ****ing stupid it blows my mind.

There is no question in some people's mind about going to war with Russia over the Ukraine? Really? That doesn't give you pause? That's scary, and I'm damn sure happy our current government doesn't feel the same way.

[Hawk]

Who the hell is advocating invading Ukraine?

[yeezus]

Who the hell is advocating invading Ukraine?

Are you responding to me? Certainly feels like kgrecw is all for doing whatever it takes to stop Russia. I sure as hell am not.

[Hawk]

Are you responding to me? Certainly feels like kgrecw is all for doing whatever it takes to stop Russia. I sure as hell am not.

Oh, I thought there might have been someone that suggested that specifically.

That being said, it's not a particularly brilliant move to allow Russia to exert power in Eastern European former Soviet territories wholly unimpeded. The solution is certainly not troops on the ground, but the first step that Kerry needs to take is to lean on our allies in Western Europe to impose trade sanctions and curtail their purchase of Russian energy (easier said than done, I know).

Obama's cumulative limp-wrist approach to foreign affairs concerns me deeply -- the international community knows that the American president is entirely bark. Putin demonstrated that this AM. He stands nothing to lose by pushing his way into Ukraine. Politically, it's a genius stroke for UR.

[goldfly]

i would like to know how this is our problem at all

it is in Europes backyard

and it all started from them wanting to join the EU

[yeezus]

Oh, I thought there might have been someone that suggested that specifically.

That being said, it's not a particularly brilliant move to allow Russia to exert power in Eastern European former Soviet territories wholly unimpeded. The solution is certainly not troops on the ground, but the first step that Kerry needs to take is to lean on our allies in Western Europe to impose trade sanctions and curtail their purchase of Russian energy (easier said than done, I know).

Obama's cumulative limp-wrist approach to foreign affairs concerns me deeply -- the international community knows that the American president is entirely bark. Putin demonstrated that this AM. He stands nothing to lose by pushing his way into Ukraine. Politically, it's a genius stroke for UR.

I agree that is sucks and isn't ideal. However, the potential consequences of messing with Russia over the Ukraine are scary.
Russia relies on the West in trade, but countries also rely on Russia. That's what makes it so complicated, and simply calling Obama a pussy in this instance is silly. I don't think he was a pussy for not going in to Syria. That worked out. We KNOW our western allies won't do anything. We can ask and communicate, but nothing will be done except maybe a "stern talking to." The EU is not a military power, and Ukraine is not part of NATO. So who's supposed to help? Why us? Is Ukraine worth it? It's a mess we don't have to jump into, IMO.

[Hawk]

it is in Europes backyard

That's the problem. Ukraine isn't in 'Europe's backyard' -- it's in Europe.

[goldfly]

That's the problem. Ukraine isn't in 'Europe's backyard' -- it's in Europe.

we are really going to argue over that?

i know it is in europe

are we going to act like it isn't the backyard for the western power that is know as europe and isn't actually part of it?

[BedellBrave]

Putin is an evil and very dangerous man. I've always said that, even back to when W said something about that he could see into his soul (through his eyes) and that he felt like he was an OK dude or something along those lines. Putin is a old line hard core KGB officer who was just born at the wrong time to fit in, IMO.


So much for the Cold War being so 20 years ago. Huh? The left is funny, they mock to no end folks like Romney and Palin, and then when folks like that happen to actually have had foresight on an issue, the leftists can never, no never, admit that they could have been a bit off in their mockery.

Wish folks would get a pair and be able to admit at least every once and awhile when they were wrong.

[BedellBrave]

na, i am fine
i didn't make a personal attack
no idea


:roll:

[goldfly]

:roll:

:eusa_dance:

[BedellBrave]

I agree that is sucks and isn't ideal. However, the potential consequences of messing with Russia over the Ukraine are scary.
Russia relies on the West in trade, but countries also rely on Russia. That's what makes it so complicated, and simply calling Obama a pussy in this instance is silly. I don't think he was a pussy for not going in to Syria. That worked out. We KNOW our western allies won't do anything. We can ask and communicate, but nothing will be done except maybe a "stern talking to." The EU is not a military power, and Ukraine is not part of NATO. So who's supposed to help? Why us? Is Ukraine worth it? It's a mess we don't have to jump into, IMO.

He's a vacillator. On top of vacillating, then he has a penchant to be pushed into something stupid after dragging his feet. A terrible combination. Thank goodness the Brits saved us in his Syrian foreign-policy debacle.

[BedellBrave]

:eusa_dance:


Can't recall you ever, ever, admitting you were wrong about anything. Why is it so hard for you? Are you this way in the rest of your life?

[yeezus]

He's a vacillator. On top of vacillating, then he has a penchant to be pushed into something stupid after dragging his feet. A terrible combination. Thank goodness the Brits saved us in the Syria debacle.

Yes we should encourage plunging ahead and "going with out gut" instead of waiting, learning, and deciding upon the best option. That works in some life decisions, but is not preferable in world affairs, ESPECIALLY against freaking Russia.

[yeezus]

Again, why is this inherently OUR problem? We don't need WWIII over Ukraine. Some believe Putin controlling all of Ukraine for an extended period will be difficult anyway.

[goldfly]

Can't recall you ever, ever, admitting you were wrong about anything. Why is it so hard for you? Are you this way in the rest of your life?

i don't care what palin and her dumbass said on this topic or anything else to be honest

it isn't productive and continues the cycle of nothing in my view

exactly, what am "wrong about" though? i answered his question honestly and forthright and you still are upset

[Hawk]

I agree that is sucks and isn't ideal. However, the potential consequences of messing with Russia over the Ukraine are scary.
Russia relies on the West in trade, but countries also rely on Russia. That's what makes it so complicated, and simply calling Obama a pussy in this instance is silly. I don't think he was a pussy for not going in to Syria. That worked out. We KNOW our western allies won't do anything. We can ask and communicate, but nothing will be done except maybe a "stern talking to." The EU is not a military power, and Ukraine is not part of NATO. So who's supposed to help? Why us? Is Ukraine worth it? It's a mess we don't have to jump into, IMO.

You are right -- our country is in no position to trifle with Russia right now (which is kind of sad if you really think about it). But, to be honest, with the way jingoist sentiments are growing across that country, I can't help but wonder if the current situation in Ukraine is a window we might later regret not fully opening. It's not a decision-making process that I envy in the slightest but, at the same time, my confidence in the Obama administration to handle this (mainly due to a lack of credible diplomats) is minimal. This would've been a great moment to test Hillary Clinton's mettle as SoS.

Also, I wouldn't be so sure that our Western allies will turn a blind eye to what's going on. Instability in the Ukraine directly effects several fledgling EU member states.

[BedellBrave]

Yes we should encourage plunging ahead and "going with out gut" instead of waiting, learning, and deciding upon the best option. That works in some life decisions, but is not preferable in world affairs, ESPECIALLY against freaking Russia.


You make a wrong assumption. I am not advocating plunging in. I do want to consider this more myself. I'm not advocating jumping into a World War. But what I am saying is that Russia knows it can roll into Georgia, into the Ukraine, etc., without much fear of reprisals due to who Obama is and the type of foreign policy he has practiced. He has to be on top of things in advance and not always playing a reactionary game, where he twiddles his thumbs. His weak foreign policy, whether unintentionally or intentionally, is taking the US down to a second tier status in geo-politics. Maybe that's where we need to be. But there are consequences. And I'm not sure you younger guys understand that well...

[Hawk]

we are really going to argue over that?

i know it is in europe

are we going to act like it isn't the backyard for the western power that is know as europe and isn't actually part of it?

I'm not saying this to be obstinate, but I view Ukraine as a fairly integral component of contemporary Eastern Europe.

[yeezus]

You make a wrong assumption. I am not advocating plunging in. I do want to consider this more myself. I'm not advocating jumping into a World War. But what I am saying is that Russia knows it can roll into Georgia, into the Ukraine, etc., without much fear of reprisals due to who Obama is and the type of foreign policy he has practiced. He has to be on top of things in advance and not always playing a reactionary game, where he twiddles his thumbs. His weak foreign policy, whether unintentionally or intentionally, is taking the US down to a second tier status in geo-politics. Maybe that's where we need to be. But there are consequences. And I'm not sure you younger guys understand that well...

So what should have been done to avoid this? Russia would not have been deterred. What should be done in response? I don't mind not being world police. I'm in favor, actually. I don't consider that "weak," and I suppose that's where we differ.

[BedellBrave]

So what should have been done to avoid this? Russia would not have been deterred. What should be done in response? I don't mind not being world police. I'm in favor, actually. I don't consider that "weak," and I suppose that's where we differ.


How old are you? I wonder if you remember living during the Cold War.

Why have we been the world's police?

Why do we engage in geo-politics to begin with?

What are the consequences - economic consequences - of being a 2nd tier player in that game?

[yeezus]

You are right -- our country is in no position to trifle with Russia right now (which is kind of sad if you really think about it). But, to be honest, with the way jingoist sentiments are growing across that country, I can't help but wonder if the current situation in Ukraine is a window we might later regret not fully opening. It's not a decision-making process that I envy in the slightest but, at the same time, my confidence in the Obama administration to handle this (mainly due to a lack of credible diplomats) is minimal. This would've been a great moment to test Hillary Clinton's mettle as SoS.

Also, I wouldn't be so sure that our Western allies will turn a blind eye to what's going on. Instability in the Ukraine directly effects several fledgling EU member states.

It could definitely end up being a window that we regret not jumping through. But if we do jump through, I think the immediate repercussions are terrifying, and simply not worth it. Putin knows this. It's not like he doesn't have nukes and an air force. There are potential repercussions both ways. But I believe there are sure, and more frightening, repercussions of taking action to defend Ukraine vs. not.

[goldfly]

I'm not saying this to be obstinate, but I view Ukraine as a fairly integral component of contemporary Eastern Europe.

of course it is

when anyone says "Europe" in this country, they aren't talking about Latvia and the Ukraine etc

and for sure aren't talking about them when it comes to Western powers aka Europe (ie France, Germany, England etc )

[yeezus]

How old are you? I wonder if you remember living during the Cold War.

Why have we been the world's police?

Why do we engage in geo-politics to begin with?

What are the consequences - economic consequences - of being a 2nd tier player in that game?

I'm 23. So no memory whatsoever.
I think it's important to maintain our power and protect our country and our allies. Ukraine is not that, and overall has little to do with us.
What are the economic consequences of potential war with Russia?
We will remain a powerful nation for a long while. That's ok, I like that. Doesn't mean we have to police the world.

[BedellBrave]

So what should have been done to avoid this? Russia would not have been deterred. What should be done in response? I don't mind not being world police. I'm in favor, actually. I don't consider that "weak," and I suppose that's where we differ.


All manner of things - from how we handled the Georgia situation, the green Revolution in Iran, to our role in the Arab Spring, to our poor support for Poland, to who we have involved in foreign diplomacy and on and on we could go. The position we find ourselves in today is the product of an entire foreign policy that has been well, lacking in substance and influence.

[yeezus]

All manner of things - from how we handled the Georgia situation, the green Revolution in Iran, to our role in the Arab Spring, to our poor support for Poland, to who we have involved in foreign diplomacy and on and on we could go. The position we find ourselves in today is the product of an entire foreign policy that has been well, lacking in substance and influence.

What "position" are we in? Putin is betting we won't do anything over Ukraine. WHO CARES? If he were to attack Poland, that's a different story. We don't have to assert our dominance over Russia because of a country like Ukraine. It's a mess we don't need to be part of.

[BedellBrave]

I'm 23. So no memory whatsoever.
I think it's important to maintain our power and protect our country and our allies. Ukraine is not that, and overall has little to do with us.
What are the economic consequences of potential war with Russia?
We will remain a powerful nation for a long while. That's ok, I like that. Doesn't mean we have to police the world.


Thought you had to be young and not remember bomb drills in schools and fall-out shelters under homes and public buildings.

Ukraine is more strategic than you can imagine. Virtually any of the former Soviet satellites are. They are our modern day Viennas (think Ottoman Empire & Europe) whether we like for them to be or not.

We police the world, we are in all manner of places in the world, because we like living the way we live. And if you think 2nd tier status won't effect our economy then I think you are being short-sighted.

Yes, "we've got our own economic house to get in order" yet that task isn't nor will it ever be able to be undertaken apart from geo-politics.

Welcome to the real world.

[Dalyn]

Man. I am so sick of other countries. Where are John Adams and Thomas Jefferson when you need them?

Jefferson to Adams - "It seems the Cannibals of Europe are going to eat one another again. A war between Russia and Turkey is like the battle of the kite and snake; whichever destroys the other, leaves a destroyer less for the world."

Jefferson to Adams - "The life of the feeder is better than that of the fighter; and it is some consolation that the desolation by these maniacs of one part of the earth is the means of improving it in other parts. Let the latter be our office, and let us milk the cow, while the Russian holds her by the horns, and the Turk by the tail."

[Dalyn]

(Sick of this one, too, but it's still the best option available)

[Hawk]

What "position" are we in? Putin is betting we won't do anything over Ukraine. WHO CARES? If he were to attack Poland, that's a different story. We don't have to assert our dominance over Russia because of a country like Ukraine. It's a mess we don't need to be part of.

I'm just curious, but why do you think Poland is any different than the Ukraine?

[BedellBrave]

Man. I am so sick of other countries. Where are John Adams and Thomas Jefferson when you need them?

Jefferson to Adams - "It seems the Cannibals of Europe are going to eat one another again. A war between Russia and Turkey is like the battle of the kite and snake; whichever destroys the other, leaves a destroyer less for the world."

Jefferson to Adams - "The life of the feeder is better than that of the fighter; and it is some consolation that the desolation by these maniacs of one part of the earth is the means of improving it in other parts. Let the latter be our office, and let us milk the cow, while the Russian holds her by the horns, and the Turk by the tail."


Dalyn, we are no longer 13 small colonies along the Eastern Seaboard….

[Dalyn]

Dalyn, we are no longer 13 small colonies along the Eastern Seaboard….

I am aware.

[yeezus]

I'm just curious, but why do you think Poland is any different than the Ukraine?

They're part of NATO, I believe we have a more of a concern and responsibility to them. Also, there are bigger implications to Putin just romping in to Poland. The situations in Poland and Ukraine are not the same, the Ukraine is more divided.

[Hawk]

Man. I am so sick of other countries. Where are John Adams and Thomas Jefferson when you need them?

I believe there is more than one way to engage the global community, but isolationism isn't one of them.

The US is speaking loudly but carrying a small stick right now.

Should be the other way around.

I feel like that's a fair compromise (because I do see the benefits of an isolationist approach).

[Dalyn]

I believe there is more than one way to engage the global community, but isolationism isn't one of them.

The US is speaking loudly but carrying a small stick right now.

Should be the other way around.

I feel like that's a fair compromise (because I do see the benefits of an isolationist approach).

I think we need a break from policing the globe. Right now, it seems like a family in Germany could get in a backyard brawl with their neighbor and we would want to get involved.

[yeezus]

Ok then, I'm curious. I want to completely stay out of it. Intervention, to me, is not tolerable.
To those who don't necessarily feel this: What do you propose that we do? What are the consequences, and what is it worth to you?

[yeezus]

It feels like those who want action, want it because our "American pride" is being threatened and laughed at by Putin. I think we will be just fine in the long run if we don't do anything. Not even "just fine," but better off.

[yeezus]

The best thing we can do is impose sanctions against Russia. They need Europe more than Europe needs them. We're still the leading economy in the world and hold a ton of power. Trying to physically stop them will not be good.

We could probably hurt Russia pretty good economically.

[Hawk]

I mean, can we just pause and reflect for a moment: Russia is about to ****ing invade Ukraine, a sovereign nation.

What gives them the right to do this?

[thethe]

We give an inch and Russia will take a mile.

[Hawk]

We could probably hurt Russia pretty good economically.

Or we could push them almost exclusively into dealings with the Chinese.

There is no clear cut path here, unfortunately.

More radical, yet less 'physical' methods; cyber-terrorism, visa tightening, cultural warfare.

[zitothebrave]

Nuclear war is a joke. Don't you think they'd die too? What benefit would they have?



Also goldfly care to admit that Palin was right about this? Instead of calling her an idiot , with personal attacks, was she right or wrong?

Yes they know they'd die too but back a rat into a corner and he'll do everything he can to survive.

[thethe]

Doing nothing is a dangerous proposition as well. Russia and their best friend China are takling right now thinking Europe/US are weak. They want to be the big boys on the block and it only takes one dangerous/charasmatic man to pull China into a conflict.

[zitothebrave]

Or we could push them almost exclusively into dealings with the Chinese.

There is no clear cut path here, unfortunately.

More radical, yet less 'physical' methods; cyber-terrorism, visa tightening, cultural warfare.

Cultural Warfare is the way to go. Cyber terrorism is not that important against the russians.

[zitothebrave]

Doing nothing is a dangerous proposition as well. Russia and their best friend China are takling right now thinking Europe/US are weak. They want to be the big boys on the block and it only takes one dangerous/charasmatic man to pull China into a conflict.

China needs the US and Europe, they'll abandon Russia in no time.

[BedellBrave]

Ok then, I'm curious. I want to completely stay out of it. Intervention, to me, is not tolerable.
To those who don't necessarily feel this: What do you propose that we do? What are the consequences, and what is it worth to you?


1. Begin full-scale diplomacy with the new Ukrainian leadership. Very public, very open, very clear on principles.

2. Revisit and strengthen the cooperative language of the 2008 agreement.

3. Place US troops in Poland on high alert. Don't move them though to the Poland/Ukraine border.

4. Constant multi-channel communications with Putin and the Russian government.

5. Strengthen our strong relations with Turkey.

6. Russia's leverage is in great part due to natural gas. And European countries are very vulnerable. Promoting any Western or other alternatives that can't be as easily manipulated/controlled by another country should have a heightened priority.

7. Continue to help develop Moldova. Oh yes, we are there.

[thethe]

China needs the US and Europe, they'll abandon Russia in no time.

Nations with strong centralized governments tend to do odd things. There is no way we can sit here and predict exactly what China wants to do. These Eastern Nations do not like the way the West lives. There is deep rooted resentment involved here.

[Dalyn]

I mean, can we just pause and reflect for a moment: Russia is about to ****ing invade Ukraine, a sovereign nation.

What gives them the right to do this?

Why should WE get involved? You know the other countries will stand back and let us take the financial and flesh costs. We are slowly destroying ourselves. We've thrown too much money and too many bodies away already.

[thethe]

Why should WE get involved? You know the other countries will stand back and let us take the financial and flesh costs. We are slowly destroying ourselves. We've thrown too much money and too many bodies away already.

Do you believe that doing nothing though strengthens or weakens our enemies?

[Dalyn]

I'm not against war but knowing your limits is important.

[BedellBrave]

China needs the US and Europe, they'll abandon Russia in no time.


This is actually a good point. I think we have to leverage China against Russia and at other times Russia against China or India and Europe against one of them. It's a constant chess game. We just need good chess players.

[Dalyn]

Do you believe that doing nothing though strengthens or weakens our enemies?

I think if we do nothing someone else will (for a change). Everyone sits back and waits for us to pay the price right now. I GUARANTEE you every country considers that aspect before taking any action.

[yeezus]

I mean, can we just pause and reflect for a moment: Russia is about to ****ing invade Ukraine, a sovereign nation.

What gives them the right to do this?

Nothing gives them this right, as far as I'm concerned.
But that doesn't mean I think we should get involved militarily.

[BedellBrave]

Why should WE get involved? You know the other countries will stand back and let us take the financial and flesh costs. We are slowly destroying ourselves. We've thrown too much money and too many bodies away already.


Dalyn, I very much appreciate this sentiment. And I wish we could do this. But my suspicion - and that's all that it is - is that the costs could be even higher with taking the isolationist route.

[thethe]

I think if we do nothing someone else will (for a change). Everyone sits back and waits for us to pay the price right now. I GUARANTEE you every country considers that aspect before taking any action.

Its certainly possible but Europe doesn't do anything unless US leads the way. Its the sad truth. NOBODY wants to go to war and I hope that this doesn't escalate to that but if this is just swept into the rug I don't see what is to stop Russia in a couple of years from doing this again.

Also, a move like this can encourage terrorist groups around the world that the West is weak. This is a very dangerous move that is being made right now. I don't think any response is the right one and thats scary.

[BedellBrave]

I think if we do nothing someone else will (for a change). Everyone sits back and waits for us to pay the price right now. I GUARANTEE you every country considers that aspect before taking any action.


There is no one else.

[Dalyn]

Its certainly possible but Europe doesn't do anything unless US leads the way. Its the sad truth. NOBODY wants to go to war and I hope that this doesn't escalate to that but if this is just swept into the rug I don't see what is to stop Russia in a couple of years from doing this again.

Also, a move like this can encourage terrorist groups around the world that the West is weak. This is a very dangerous move that is being made right now. I don't think any response is the right one and thats scary.

We ARE weak. Stretched thin. That's the truth. Someone else has to take point.

[yeezus]

Ukraine is not worth WWIII. I think even Russia probably feels that way.
Can't see China ditching us to solely back Russia. They need us way too much.

[BedellBrave]

We ARE weak. Stretched thin. That's the truth. Someone else has to take point.


Who?

[Dalyn]

The only thing we should do, if anything, is send someone after Putin.

[yeezus]

Its certainly possible but Europe doesn't do anything unless US leads the way. Its the sad truth. NOBODY wants to go to war and I hope that this doesn't escalate to that but if this is just swept into the rug I don't see what is to stop Russia in a couple of years from doing this again.

Also, a move like this can encourage terrorist groups around the world that the West is weak. This is a very dangerous move that is being made right now. I don't think any response is the right one and thats scary.

Russia would not do this to a NATO country. They know they're royally ****ed if they do. NATO has hard-line provisions that would assure big action. I'm sure discussions similar happened years ago, saying "yeah, but Russia won't invade Ukraine." But things change, and I don't see any way Russia would want to mess with NATO. There is a 0% chance of that ending well for them.

[BedellBrave]

Ukraine is not worth WWIII. I think even Russia probably feels that way.
Can't see China ditching us to solely back Russia. They need us way too much.

If they (Russia) do, then they can be backed down. Putin just dumped a ****e-load of money into a PR campaign with the Sochi Olympics. He now risks losing what bang he got for his buck. Exploit that in the media. There needs to be a huge PR-campaign waged against Russia now.

[Dalyn]

If they (Russia) do, then they can be backed down. Putin just dumped a ****e-load of money into a PR campaign with the Sochi Olympics. He now risks losing what bang he got for his buck. Exploit that in the media. There needs to be a huge PR-campaign waged against Russia now.

There you go. Nothing wrong with that.

[yeezus]

Who?

Why us?

[BedellBrave]

Why us?


Because we like our lifestyles.

[yeezus]

If they (Russia) do, then they can be backed down. Putin just dumped a ****e-load of money into a PR campaign with the Sochi Olympics. He now risks losing what bang he got for his buck. Exploit that in the media. There needs to be a huge PR-campaign waged against Russia now.

That's reasonable and fine.
I also liked your ideas in #s 3 and 6 above.

[Dalyn]

Who?

One (or more) of those who have benefited from the last decade+ with minimal costs to themselves. UK, France, and Italy would be a good start.

[yeezus]

Because we like our lifestyles.

Meh, Russia taking part of Ukraine does not threaten our lifestyle.

[thethe]

Nobody is going to step up to Russia.

[BedellBrave]

1. Begin full-scale diplomacy with the new Ukrainian leadership. Very public, very open, very clear on principles.

2. Revisit and strengthen the cooperative language of the 2008 agreement.

3. Place US troops in Poland on high alert. Don't move them though to the Poland/Ukraine border.

4. Constant multi-channel communications with Putin and the Russian government.

5. Strengthen our strong relations with Turkey.

6. Russia's leverage is in great part due to natural gas. And European countries are very vulnerable. Promoting any Western or other alternatives that can't be as easily manipulated/controlled by another country should have a heightened priority.

7. Continue to help develop Moldova. Oh yes, we are there.


8. Work the Chinese and the Indians in ways that hurt Russia. Let Russia know that can stop…

9. Wage a massive media campaign against Russian "aggression."

[thethe]

Meh, Russia taking part of Ukraine does not threaten our lifestyle.

No, not now it doesn't. But in a few years when they become more emboldened and then encourage another large nation to join them...then we are in for a doozy.

[Dalyn]

Nobody is going to step up to Russia.

I call bull****. They won't until they're sure we aren't going to first.

[BedellBrave]

Meh, Russia taking part of Ukraine does not threaten our lifestyle.


Again, you are being naive and short-sighted. Ukraine is one step - and a big one at that. And look at the nine steps I've suggested. Why not do many if not all of them?

[BedellBrave]

I call bull****. They won't until they're sure we aren't going to first.


Who is going to do so? Germany? Poland? France? The UK? Canada? Brazil? Why would any of them?

[Dalyn]

If Putin had an accident, this would probably all sort itself out.

[zitothebrave]

Nations with strong centralized governments tend to do odd things. There is no way we can sit here and predict exactly what China wants to do. These Eastern Nations do not like the way the West lives. There is deep rooted resentment involved here.

China's entire economy is based on their production and goods. West is where their money comes from. They may try to pull a power move most nations do, but they won't do it by siding with Russia in WW3, I think they'll take more of a corporate takeover route.

[Dalyn]

Who is going to do so? Germany? Poland? France? The UK? Canada? Brazil? Why would any of them?

Because they like their lifestyles.

[yeezus]

No, not now it doesn't. But in a few years when they become more emboldened and then encourage another large nation to join them...then we are in for a doozy.

Like who? Who would join them? China? Small chance.
They won't invade a NATO country any time soon. They would be screwed. They don't want that.

[BedellBrave]

No, not now it doesn't. But in a few years when they become more emboldened and then encourage another large nation to join them...then we are in for a doozy.


We've seen it all before.

Georgia leads to Ukraine. Ukraine can lead quickly to Moldova. Moldova and Ukraine could lead to Poland or Romania and Bulgaria. Then Russia has the Black Sea. Then Turkey is next.

[yeezus]

Because they like their lifestyles.

Right? For the same reasons we "should." It affects them more than it does us. Just because we're the most powerful country in the world doesn't mean Ukraine, and others like it, are necessarily vital.

[BedellBrave]

Because they like their lifestyles.

They also like to stay warm in the Winter….

And which of those countries would be able to do what you envision them doing?

Why not just look to Russia for their support, assistance, allegiance? And tell us to bugger-off?

[Dalyn]

They also like to stay warm in the Winter….

And which of those countries would be able to do what you envision them doing?

Why not just look to Russia for their support, assistance, allegiance?

Because no one likes Russia.

[BedellBrave]

Because no one likes Russia.


Oh, I think a few of those would whore themselves out to Putin if it means they get natural gas and his tanks aren't rolling all through the streets.

Particularly if they know the USA has gone all isolationist.

US influence will be ****. And Russia just keeps moving chess pieces and picking up financial benefits as they go.

[Dalyn]

Oh, I think a few of those would whore themselves out to Putin if it means they get natural gas and his tanks aren't rolling all through the streets.

Particularly if they know the USA has gone all isolationist.

US influence will be ****. And Russia just keeps moving chess pieces and picking up financial benefits as they go.

We'll see, I guess.

What about my Putin suggestion?

[Hawk]

If Putin had an accident, this would probably all sort itself out.

Volgograd

...

It's not outside of the realm of possibility.

[BedellBrave]

Depends on who is next in line. If Putin rolls Ukraine, I could see a few black-ops like that being authorized.

If Putin wasn't such a egomaniac, we wouldn't be were we are even with the paltry Obama foreign-policy.

And Putin can do what he does while he's got the natural gas card.

[BedellBrave]

Speaking of natural gas, I think this is what the President can do:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSo0duY7-9s#t=81

[Hawk]

BBC: What is so dangerous about Crimea? (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26367786)

An interesting read for those unfamiliar or a little rusty on the region.

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/73094000/gif/_73094671_ukraine_divide_2.gif

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/73286000/gif/_73286674_crimea_black_sea_fleet_624.gif

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/73286000/gif/_73286677_eu_russia_summit_624map3.gif

[Dalyn]

Haven't played Risk lately.

http://global3.memecdn.com/russian-police_o_1015526.jpg

[The Chosen One]

Apparently Obama and Putin talked on the phone for 90 minutes and it was ugly.

[Hawk]

From WaPo:

[Obama] called on Putin to pull Russian forces, now reportedly spread across Crimea, back to their bases in the autonomous Ukrainian region, the White House said, and made clear that Russian refusal would “impact Russia’s standing in the international community,” and would lead to suspension of U.S. participation in planning for the upcoming G8 summit in Sochi scheduled for June, and “greater political and economic isolation” for Russia.

Putin gave little ground, according to a Kremlin account of the telephone conversation. Calling the Ukraine situation “extraordinary,” he charged that Ukrainian “ultranationalists,” supported by the U.S.-backed government in Kiev, were threatening “the lives and health of Russian citizens” in Crimea.

[BedellBrave]

Russia is practiced in the Machiavellian tactic of securing Russian "colonies" within these former Soviet satellites. Sure, let the countries break away, but always maintain an excuse to roll back in (i.e., "we've got to go back in to protect our people").

[BedellBrave]

From WaPo:

[Obama] called on Putin to pull Russian forces, now reportedly spread across Crimea, back to their bases in the autonomous Ukrainian region, the White House said, and made clear that Russian refusal would “impact Russia’s standing in the international community,” and would lead to suspension of U.S. participation in planning for the upcoming G8 summit in Sochi scheduled for June, and “greater political and economic isolation” for Russia.

Putin gave little ground, according to a Kremlin account of the telephone conversation. Calling the Ukraine situation “extraordinary,” he charged that Ukrainian “ultranationalists,” supported by the U.S.-backed government in Kiev, were threatening “the lives and health of Russian citizens” in Crimea.


I had read that kicking Putin out of the G8 summit was one option. We'll see if that has any impact.

[Julio3000]

We've seen it all before.

Georgia leads to Ukraine. Ukraine can lead quickly to Moldova. Moldova and Ukraine could lead to Poland or Romania and Bulgaria. Then Russia has the Black Sea. Then Turkey is next.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. This is not 1939.

It took Russia two wars and almost two decades to mostly pacify Chechnya. Let's not have them sharpening their knives for Turkey, for goodness' sake.

[BedellBrave]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. This is not 1939.

It took Russia two wars and almost two decades to mostly pacify Chechnya. Let's not have them sharpening their knives for Turkey, for goodness' sake.


If they hadn't already effectively taken care of Georgia, I would agree with you.

And if we weren't doing things in Moldova (which indicates some concern on our government's part), I would agree with you.

And if Putin hadn't used Russian natural gas as a weapon as openly as he has I would agree with you.

[Oklahomahawk]

So what do we do? I don't think anyone here is saying we should go to war over the Ukraine are they? What can Obama do other than make pretty much impotent threats or promise Putin something else in return for playing nice. Not gonna work. What if W was still president, can anyone say things would be any different? I will say this, if for some reason Putin turned out to have one of those "accidents" you guys mentioned earlier it would be hard for them to not blame the Ukranians wouldn't it???

[BedellBrave]

8. Work the Chinese and the Indians in ways that hurt Russia. Let Russia know that can stop…

9. Wage a massive media campaign against Russian "aggression."


10. And say, "I fart in your general direction."

[BedellBrave]

And these:


1. Begin full-scale diplomacy with the new Ukrainian leadership. Very public, very open, very clear on principles.

2. Revisit and strengthen the cooperative language of the 2008 agreement.

3. Place US troops in Poland on high alert. Don't move them though to the Poland/Ukraine border.

4. Constant multi-channel communications with Putin and the Russian government.

5. Strengthen our strong relations with Turkey.

6. Russia's leverage is in great part due to natural gas. And European countries are very vulnerable. Promoting any Western or other alternatives that can't be as easily manipulated/controlled by another country should have a heightened priority.

7. Continue to help develop Moldova. Oh yes, we are there.

[BedellBrave]

Btw, in full disclosure I have a good friend with lots of family members in the Ukraine. She's very concerned as am I.

[Oklahomahawk]

I say we hit them where it REALLY hurts, let's get our scientists to develop a new blight/fungus that destroys their entire potato crop while at the same time we corner the world market on vodka. Once they sober up enough to figure out what we've done they'll come to their senses!!!

[BedellBrave]

I say we hit them where it REALLY hurts, let's get our scientists to develop a new blight/fungus that destroys their entire potato crop while at the same time we corner the world market on vodka. Once they sober up enough to figure out what we've done they'll come to their senses!!!


I have other friends who lived in Moscow and they were really taken back by how prevalent alcoholism was. Course long winters like that would drive many to a few too many.

[BedellBrave]

Praying that our President has much wisdom moving forward.

[The Chosen One]

Praying that our President has much wisdom moving forward.

Hopefully if he gets us out of this without military intervention he will be praised instead of being a coward for not starting ww3

[Oklahomahawk]

Praying that our President has much wisdom moving forward.

Agree!! This is just one of a million reasons I would NOT want that job!!!

[Krgrecw]

Hopefully if he gets us out of this without military intervention he will be praised instead of being a coward for not starting ww3


Praised for not spending american lives to protect and help people that need it and are far worse off? Praised for letting a tyrant be a bully? So the adage about helping the less fortunate ends at our borders?


Do the people that have the opportunity, and the strength, and the might to stop the injustices in the world have a obligation to do so? Does history not tell you
‘All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing’?

[The Chosen One]

Praised for not spending american lives to protect and help people that need it and are far worse off? Praised for letting a tyrant be a bully? So the adage about helping the less fortunate ends at our borders?


Do the people that have the opportunity, and the strength, and the might to stop the injustices in the world have a obligation to do so? Does history not tell you
‘All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing’?

Of course we have the obligation to do so but we're 17 fricking trillion in debt! If you're ok with him raising taxes to pay for it then cool.

Otherwise we don't have money to try and show the world whom has a bigger penis. Why are you so in a hurry to get into a military confrontation? Did Putin poop on your front yard? We spent billions on a wasted war in Iraq we were never going to win. Afghanistan has no clear victory and you wanted us to stay there too.

And the quote you used. He's called Putin and warned of sanctions and other possibilities. Just because he didn't threaten putin with war we don't havr to make a move yet.

And where has your horn been on North Korea and Syria? I've never seen you so emotional about a certain international situation like this. Are you Ukrainian American?

[goldfly]

i, as of right now, don't think we should be involved in the Ukraine

it has nothing to do with our debt on why or why not though

[Krgrecw]

Of course we have the obligation to do so but we're 17 fricking trillion in debt! If you're ok with him raising taxes to pay for it then cool.

Otherwise we don't have money to try and show the world whom has a bigger penis. Why are you so in a hurry to get into a military confrontation? Did Putin poop on your front yard? We spent billions on a wasted war in Iraq we were never going to win. Afghanistan has no clear victory and you wanted us to stay there too.

And the quote you used. He's called Putin and warned of sanctions and other possibilities. Just because he didn't threaten putin with war we don't havr to make a move yet.

And where has your horn been on North Korea and Syria? I've never seen you so emotional about a certain international situation like this. Are you Ukrainian American?




North Korea is China's problem. If I knew that I could take out Kim with a bomb I would right now. There's studies that say we'd need over 100,000 soldiers in NK if the regime fell, to keep order and secure Thier weapons. That would be a big undertaking. NK is all talk, they are no threat.

Syria is a sad situation but like the people of Egypt realized 'the devil you know Is better then the devil you don't know'. Is it better to live under Assad than the Islamic Brotherhood? Egypt took a chance then realized they were wrong.

I just believe that you have to buck people when they get out of line. If Putin is challenged he'd back down. He knows he'd lose. Challenge him. It would be easier to end this now, then it would be tomorrow.

If You have a cancerous tumor, the doctors will tell you take care of this before it spreads. It's easier to fight. If you wait long enough the cancer can spread to a point where fighting it will do no good. That's how I look at this situation. Everyday putin will bring more and more forces into the region. Why would you want a bigger battle?

[zitothebrave]

If Putin is challenged he'd back down.

Cause if there's one thing someone that's entirely self absorbed into their own "macho" image does when challenged, it's back down.

[Dalyn]

https://scontent-a-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash2/t1/308413_276901862341992_1854288703_n.jpg

[Oklahomahawk]

I think you're missing the point Dalyn, the defense contractors win either way.

[Julio3000]

If they hadn't already effectively taken care of Georgia, I would agree with you.

And if we weren't doing things in Moldova (which indicates some concern on our government's part), I would agree with you.

And if Putin hadn't used Russian natural gas as a weapon as openly as he has I would agree with you.

Georgia might disagree that it has been taken care of.

That the US sees Moldova as strategically important certainly confirms that there is concern about Russia's ambitions, but that alone doesn't prop up your domino theory.

I also might quibble about Russia's natural gas stick being quite so big and scary. Not big enough that Putin can face down the unified opposition of the rest of Europe & the US.

You're talking about Russia absorbing NATO member states here. Sheer brass and natural gas are not going to get it done.

[50PoundHead]

I'm not going to say a pox on both Houses, because the uprising in the Ukraine appears to be a genuine "get rid of all of them" movement because the guy/girl on the street doesn't seem to want anything to do with the recently-released Yulia Tymoshenko, who was as crooked as the pro-Russian puppets.

So where does this leave us? Where the f*ck is the EU in all of this? Are they going to be as worthless as ever in trying to solve the problem? Seems sanctions are in order at the very least and that if US oil companies start selling oil to Europe, it would hit Putin where he lives. Problem with that strategy is it likely puts 50 cents a gallon for American drivers.

Heard the crackhead woman from the American Enterprise Institute deriding Obama on Face the Nation. Problem with AEI and a lot of these neocon outfits is that they are stuck in the 1970s.

[Hawk]

No, Putin won't walk into Poland like the Soviets did in 1939 ... but a plausible scenario could begin with disruption in Lesser Poland. The region is already unhappy about the disparity of domestic and EU investment in the East versus the South/West. Putin could easily sway allegiances with cheap energy shares and infrastructure investments in the border region.

[Hawk]

I'm not going to say a pox on both Houses, because the uprising in the Ukraine appears to be a genuine "get rid of all of them" movement because the guy/girl on the street doesn't seem to want anything to do with the recently-released Yulia Tymoshenko, who was as crooked as the pro-Russian puppets.

This is why I worry -- at this point, the Ukraine is going to embrace stability -- period -- and the Russians are the only ones stepping up with an offering ($16 billion).

[Gary82]

Apparently Obama and Putin talked on the phone for 90 minutes and it was ugly.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rGG3eBUsYyg/UEsmUimr-PI/AAAAAAAAAgA/2RhKQTLW8Sk/s400/tumblr_ljfpf1gXfW1qhou5n.jpg

[Hawk]

Live stream of Pro-Russian rally in Simferopol (courtesy state-funded global media outlet, Russia Today): http://rt.com/on-air/simferopol-rally-maidan-russia/

More pro-Russian points of view on situation:
- 675,000 Ukrainians pour into Russia as ‘humanitarian crisis’ looms (http://rt.com/news/ukrainians-leave-russia-border-452/)
- ​US military seize documents raided by Ukrainian radicals – suspected looter (http://rt.com/news/us-military-ukraine-radicals-440/)
- Criminal case against Yulia Tymoshenko closed due to lack of evidence (http://english.pravda.ru/news/world/28-02-2014/126971-tymoshenko_criminal_case-0/)

[yeezus]

From what I've gathered (and this could all be wrong), Crimea is largely pro-Russian as it is, and wants to be part of Russia by a majority.
There is a lot that goes in to this other than Russia trying to screw Ukraine, but they are certainly trying to do that.

[50PoundHead]

After the Russian Revolution of 1917, the Russian master plan for the Soviet states was to follow the standard Russian imperialistic line and flood Russians into the other Soviet states (including the Ukraine), dispossess the existing residents, and establish a strong pro-Russian (sometimes a majority Russian) local governments. Nearly a century later, the animosity between the Russians and the native populations that were largely dispossessed is still quite strong. That's why you see as much pro-Russian push back in parts of the Ukraine.

[goldfly]

What a joke by Kerry to say this: "You just don't in the 21st Century behave...by invading another country on completely trumped-up pretext"

[Dalyn]

What a joke by Kerry to say this: "You just don't in the 21st Century behave...by invading another country on completely trumped-up pretext"

:happy0157:

This is what it looks like when the country is run by greed and polls (not a racial slur, Poland!). Opinions change with every check and every poll.

[Hawk]

@peterbakernyt: US official says "Russian forces now have complete operational control of the Crimean peninsula."
[ http://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/440234708749004801 ]

Well, that was quick.

[Hawk]

... And just like that, Obama is sending Kerry to the front line. Will arrive in Kiev on Tuesday.

[Dalyn]

... And just like that, Obama is sending Kerry to the front line. Will arrive in Kiev on Tuesday.

I wonder if this is a David and Bathsheba type of thing?

Eh, probably not -

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/About/General/2013/7/8/1373238095646/Teresa-Heinz-Kerry-010.jpg

[BedellBrave]

After the Russian Revolution of 1917, the Russian master plan for the Soviet states was to follow the standard Russian imperialistic line and flood Russians into the other Soviet states (including the Ukraine), dispossess the existing residents, and establish a strong pro-Russian (sometimes a majority Russian) local governments. Nearly a century later, the animosity between the Russians and the native populations that were largely dispossessed is still quite strong. That's why you see as much pro-Russian push back in parts of the Ukraine.

That was the Machiavellian imperialistic strategy that I mentioned before and they have played it to a T.

[BedellBrave]

... And just like that, Obama is sending Kerry to the front line. Will arrive in Kiev on Tuesday.


The Russians are cheering.

That said, that's where he needs to be. Now, let's hope Lurch will be able to walk and chew gum at the same time.

[Dalyn]

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=287_1393605865

[Krgrecw]

I'm still waiting for the diplomatic response to work....





If I were Putin I would take the Kiev airport so Kerry can't land and I wouldn't Let Kerry cross the border by car. Wonder what O would do if that happened?

[CK86]

How much will gas go up? That's really all I care about right now given my current financial situation.

[BedellBrave]

Good Brit analysis (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10669826/Ukraine-Putins-Crimea-aim-is-to-make-the-West-look-weak.html).

[BedellBrave]

This one is coming back to bite (http://www.ijreview.com/2014/03/118668-remember-obama-mocking-romney-foreign-policy-question-2012-campaign/).

[The Chosen One]

This one is coming back to bite (http://www.ijreview.com/2014/03/118668-remember-obama-mocking-romney-foreign-policy-question-2012-campaign/).

How? Al qaeda is a bigger threat to us. Russia isn't threatening us by taking over a part of Ukraine that those residents admire Russia.

[The Chosen One]

Sad the top comment of that article is this. Maybe you feel that way too Bedell.
http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=104&d=1393807805

[Oklahomahawk]

You know SAV, Obama may be a good president, he may be a terrible president, but IMO the current situation doesn't have jack schidt to do with which category he fits in and if some Dumas Repub who can't get his head out of Limbaugh/Hannity/Coulter/Malkin's arse wants to throw the current situation up to you, toss this one back to him/her.

https://scontent-b-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/t1/1982088_741615239212569_1673649554_n.jpg

I doubt Bedell feels this way, but of course he gets to decide for himself. My only real critique of your post is that you need to increase the font size if you want someone my age to read what you're referring to or attaching.

[50PoundHead]

That was the Machiavellian imperialistic strategy that I mentioned before and they have played it to a T.

Missed that post, but you were right on the mark. If Trotsky would have prevailed, there may have been more nuance to the strategy, but Bolshevik foreign policy was largely an extension of Tsarist foreign policy with very little variance.

[BedellBrave]

Sad the top comment of that article is this. Maybe you feel that way too Bedell.
http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=104&d=1393807805


There you go again. Same playbook. Criticize POTUS and I must be like that guy. :roll:

When it comes to Putin, neither Bush nor Obama have been all that great.

[BedellBrave]

You know SAV, Obama may be a good president, he may be a terrible president, but IMO the current situation doesn't have jack schidt to do with which category he fits in and if some Dumas Repub who can't get his head out of Limbaugh/Hannity/Coulter/Malkin's arse wants to throw the current situation up to you, toss this one back to him/her.

https://scontent-b-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/t1/1982088_741615239212569_1673649554_n.jpg

I doubt Bedell feels this way, but of course he gets to decide for himself. My only real critique of your post is that you need to increase the font size if you want someone my age to read what you're referring to or attaching.


Isn't that doing the very thing you so often decry Hawk?

And the present situation absolutely has something to do with the foreign policy of President Obama and of President Bush before him. A president's foreign policy has something to do with what kind of president he is viewed as being doesn't it?

[BedellBrave]

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=287_1393605865


Oh crap.

What was it - like 6000 Russian troops are there overnight?

[BedellBrave]

Oh and here's a little bit from that vast-right-wing-conspiracy rag, the Washington Post:

"...Now Ukraine has emerged as a test of Obama’s argument that, far from weakening American power, he has enhanced it through smarter diplomacy, stronger alliances and a realism untainted by the ideology that guided his predecessor.

It will be a hard argument for him to make, analysts say.

A president who has made clear to the American public that the “tide of war is receding” has also made clear to foreign leaders, including opportunists in Russia, that he has no appetite for a new one. What is left is a vacuum once filled, at least in part, by the possibility of American force.

“If you are effectively taking the stick option off the table, then what are you left with?” said Andrew C. Kuchins, who heads the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “I don’t think that Obama and his people really understand how others in the world are viewing his policies.”

Rarely has a threat from a U.S. president been dismissed as quickly — and comprehensively — as Obama’s warning Friday night to Russian President Vladi*mir Putin. The former community organizer and the former Cold Warrior share the barest of common interests, and their relationship has been defined far more by the vastly different ways they see everything from gay rights to history’s legacy.

Obama called Putin on Saturday and expressed “deep concern over Russia’s clear violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, which is a breach of international law,” the White House said.

From a White House podium late Friday, Obama told the Russian government that “there will be costs” for any military foray into Ukraine, including the semiautonomous region of Crimea, a strategically important peninsula on the Black Sea.

Within hours, Putin asked the Russian parliament for approval to send forces into Ukraine. The vote endorsing his request was unanimous, Obama’s warning drowned out by lawmakers’ rousing rendition of Russia’s national anthem at the end of the session. Russian troops now control the Crimean Peninsula…."

[Hawk]

Politico: Why Russia No Longer Fears the West (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/03/russia-vladimir-putin-the-west-104134.html#.UxPxufRdXKg)

[Oklahomahawk]

Isn't that doing the very thing you so often decry Hawk?

And the present situation absolutely has something to do with the foreign policy of President Obama and of President Bush before him. A president's foreign policy has something to do with what kind of president he is viewed as being doesn't it?

Come on Bedell, you know the far right is going to not only say Obama is not handling this right, the way a REAL president would, but they're going to say Bush would have done better, let's face neither of them is capable of doing anything except either talking or going to war. I gave you more credit than to fall into the usual Repub spin. I still don't believe you're going to try to use this sort of terrible series of events just to make some political points. If you're going to go down that road you'll have to prove it to me, I maintain you're better than that.

If W were still president what would he do other than talk or threaten sanctions? I think the black-ops solution you mentioned a day or two ago is the only solution for this and who knows that might actually get rid of one very bad guy only to replace him with an even worse guy.

[Hawk]

I guess it's natural for some to ponder what Bush would've done had these events unfolded during his Presidency. I don't see much use gazing in the rear-view, but it's worth considering that the US was much more active internationally during the W. years (not just in the Middle East), and that Bush made Russia a priority and maintained a dynamic, positive relationship with Putin.

We're seeing the consequences of Obama's 'new Isolationism' being tested right now.

[BedellBrave]

Busting the Washington Cocoon (http://www.the-american-interest.com/blog/2014/03/01/putin-smashes-washingtons-cocoon/)

[zitothebrave]

We're seeing the consequences of Obama's 'new Isolationism' being tested right now.

What neo-isolationism are you referring to? Obama has continued the illegal war practices of Bush.

[The Chosen One]

I guess it's natural for some to ponder what Bush would've done had these events unfolded during his Presidency. I don't see much use gazing in the rear-view, but it's worth considering that the US was much more operative internationally during the W. years (not just in the Middle East), and that Bush made Russia a priority and maintained an active, positive relationship with Putin.

We're seeing the consequences of Obama's 'new Isolationism' being tested right now.

Let's be real here, Bush's congress bent over and went with whatever he wanted, and he didn't have such a huge financial crisis Obammer has. Bush had a rubber stamp congress for his first 6 years. And of course Pelosi and the Dems never passed a spending bill frequently too.

If Bush was President, it wouldn't make any difference tbh. Libya, Syria, Venezuela, Ukraine, Egpyt all would happen also.

Conservatives have been harping on Fast & Furious, Benghazi, Obamacare, Guns, and the economy for the last 4 years. Now that there's a major international crisis involving Russia, all of the sudden the right is jumping all over this. Sarah Palin is using it as a political ploy to make people think she's smarter, for some reason the Romney-Obama Presidential debate is being brought up, and Ronald Reagan still can't rest in peace.

[Hawk]

Let's be real here, Bush's congress bent over and went with whatever he wanted, and he didn't have such a huge financial crisis Obammer has. Bush had a rubber stamp congress for his first 6 years. And of course Pelosi and the Dems never passed a spending bill frequently too.

If Bush was President, it wouldn't make any difference tbh. Libya, Syria, Venezuela, Ukraine, Egpyt all would happen also.

Conservatives have been harping on Fast & Furious, Benghazi, Obamacare, Guns, and the economy for the last 4 years. Now that there's a major international crisis involving Russia, all of the sudden the right is jumping all over this. Sarah Palin is using it as a political ploy to make people think she's smarter, for some reason the Romney-Obama Presidential debate is being brought up, and Ronald Reagan still can't rest in peace.

You don't have to spend money to be an effective diplomatic presence, but you do have to make some sort of effort. And not just this type of thing:

http://cdn.necolebitchie.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/obama-beer-4.jpg

[Hawk]

What neo-isolationism are you referring to? Obama has continued the illegal war practices of Bush.

Kerry's words, not mine:

Speaking to reporters, Kerry inveighed against what he sees as a tendency within the United States to retreat from the world even as he defended the Obama administration’s diplomatic efforts from Syria to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“There’s a new isolationism,” Kerry said during a nearly one-hour discussion with a small group of reporters.

“We are beginning to behave like a poor nation,” he added, saying some Americans do not perceive the connection between US engagement abroad and the US economy, their own jobs and wider US interests.

He also said that the US had an obligation to pursue nuclear negotiations with Iran before it considered going to war with Tehran to force it to give up its nuclear activities – a strong hint that the Obama administration would seriously consider a strike on Iran if the diplomatic talks fail.

“We took the initiative and led the effort to try to figure out if before we go to war there actually might be a peaceful solution,” Kerry said.


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/27/john-kerry-slams-new-isolationism-and-says-us-behaving-like-poor-nation

[Oklahomahawk]

You don't have to spend money to be an effective diplomatic presence, but you do have to make some sort of effort. And not just this type of thing:

http://cdn.necolebitchie.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/obama-beer-4.jpg

Well to be fair this IS the perfect strategy when you're trying to improve relations with Ireland.

[BedellBrave]

Again, I think the best thing for me to do, while not being a fan of the President for so many reasons, is to still fervently pray for him and his leadership and wisdom.

[The Chosen One]

You don't have to spend money to be an effective diplomatic presence, but you do have to make some sort of effort. And not just this type of thing:

http://cdn.necolebitchie.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/obama-beer-4.jpg

Remember the conspiracy theories on the right when prez whispered in the ear to Medvedev?

[The Chosen One]

Again, I think the best thing for me to do, while not being a fan of the President for so many reasons, is to still fervently pray for him and his leadership and wisdom.

Well plenty in your party have prayed for him to fail since he took office. Glad to see a slight change

[Dalyn]

Again, I think the best thing for me to do, while not being a fan of the President for so many reasons, is to still fervently pray for him and his leadership and wisdom.

Just to continue the theme here, I'll do nothing.

[BedellBrave]

Well plenty in your party have prayed for him to fail since he took office. Glad to see a slight change


That's the nature of politics Sav. This, imho, has the potential to be a much bigger deal.

Btw, did you root for GWB to succeed politically while in office?

[BedellBrave]

Just to continue the theme here, I'll do nothing.


Not even have hopeful thoughts and wishes? :-)

[BedellBrave]

Remember the conspiracy theories on the right when prez whispered in the ear to Medvedev?


Remind me, what did the mic pick up that he said?

[BedellBrave]

Wasn't it this (http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/president-obama-asks-medvedev-for-space-on-missile-defense-after-my-election-i-have-more-flexibility/)?

So what is your point Sav?

[Hawk]

Remind me, what did the mic pick up that he said?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNxEDomUlXw

I guess he transmitted the information accordingly.

[BedellBrave]

Yep

[Oklahomahawk]

Again, I think the best thing for me to do, while not being a fan of the President for so many reasons, is to still fervently pray for him and his leadership and wisdom.

Agree and I did try to pray for and root for W while he was president, but I felt like my prayers were a little superfluous. By the way those of you who say Obama isn't good on foreign policy, you certainly are correct or at least very close to it. He did allow the navy folks to get the Somali pirates and the he allow the Navy SEALS to get Bin Laden, that's about it. My only issue is I hate the game of "gotcha" politics and the Repubs don't deserve another chance. The current administration is bad IMO, the Repubs make things a whole lot worse for everyone, except their real base.

[Oklahomahawk]

Wasn't it this (http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/president-obama-asks-medvedev-for-space-on-missile-defense-after-my-election-i-have-more-flexibility/)?

So what is your point Sav?

I guess they both got their "space" didn't they? Would would anyone think they could trust that monster in Moscow?

[Oklahomahawk]

Just to continue the theme here, I'll do nothing.

I admire your consistency. :icon_biggrin:

[goldfly]

:happy0157:

This is what it looks like when the country is run by greed and polls (not a racial slur, Poland!). Opinions change with every check and every poll.

no doubt

[50PoundHead]

The problem I see is that there still is no solution coming from the hawkish elements of the political community, especially those on the right.

[Julio3000]

The problem I see is that there still is no solution coming from the hawkish elements of the political community, especially those on the right.

The reality is that there's not much daylight between the parties concerning specific actions. That's why the partisan sniping strikes me as odd.

[50PoundHead]

The reality is that there's not much daylight between the parties concerning specific actions. That's why the partisan sniping strikes me as odd.

What I have noticed in the early going is that the rightish hawks are sending out women (Palin, Pletka) to sound the trumpets in an attempt to make Obama look effeminate and weak.

[AerchAngel]

What I have noticed in the early going is that the rightish hawks are sending out women (Palin, Pletka) to sound the trumpets in an attempt to make Obama look effeminate and weak.

Maybe because he is?

Pres. Carter should be proud of him. Those two make a cute and good couple.

[50PoundHead]

Oh stop. That's just a ridiculous comment.

[Julio3000]

What I have noticed in the early going is that the rightish hawks are sending out women (Palin, Pletka) to sound the trumpets in an attempt to make Obama look effeminate and weak.

That's an interesting point.

Palin should be back home prepping for the imminent invasion of Alaska.

Regardless of one's opinion of Obama's foreign policy, I'd think it would be difficult to trust Republicans on the issue. They—particularly the neocon variety (coughDaniellePletka)—are like the kids who broke into the liquor cabinet and had a party while the parents were out of town. They should be on restrictions for a little while longer.

While people fuss about (ehrmagawd worse-than-Watergate) Benghazi or Obama's apparent dithering on Syria, they would do well to remember who concocted a massive cover story (i.e. lie) to start a war of choice that cost trillions, alienated important partners (not least Turkey) and ultimately strengthened the biggest strategic problem child in the region, Iran. Those are the costs in terms of statecraft. For the purpose of this post I'm ignoring the massive human toll of the war and its aftermath.

Obama was elected in part because Americans were comfortable with the idea of a more restrained foreign policy. Personally, I don't think "restrained" should mean passive, weak, or hesitant to open the soft power toolbox. I will be interested to see how the administration moves on that. But I am not comfortable with preemptively judging Obama on this issue without considering the enormous ****up that was created by some of the very people who are speaking up against him.

[AerchAngel]

Oh stop. That's just a ridiculous comment.

Palin = Tin Man

but..... even a squirrel can get lucky and find a nut.

She was right, this time.

And yes Obama is like Carter, very weak in response when getting bullied.

[AerchAngel]

That's an interesting point.

Palin should be back home prepping for the imminent invasion of Alaska.

Regardless of one's opinion of Obama's foreign policy, I'd think it would be difficult to trust Republicans on the issue. They—particularly the neocon variety (coughDaniellePletka)—are like the kids who broke into the liquor cabinet and had a party while the parents were out of town. They should be on restrictions for a little while longer.

While people fuss about (ehrmagawd worse-than-Watergate) Benghazi or Obama's apparent dithering on Syria, they would do well to remember who concocted a massive cover story (i.e. lie) to start a war of choice that cost trillions, alienated important partners (not least Turkey) and ultimately strengthened the biggest strategic problem child in the region, Iran. Those are the costs in terms of statecraft. For the purpose of this post I'm ignoring the massive human toll of the war and its aftermath.

Obama was elected in part because Americans were comfortable with the idea of a more restrained foreign policy. Personally, I don't think "restrained" should mean passive, weak, or hesitant to open the soft power toolbox. I will be interested to see how the administration moves on that. But I am not comfortable with preemptively judging Obama on this issue without considering the enormous ****up that was created by some of the very people who are speaking up against him.

I would put a THANKS on that but had to pull it on your next paragraph. We know Putin thinks Obama is weak and won't do anything and he is probably right. We have no teeth any more. The world look at us and we just whimper with indecision.

Chimpy messed up the previous eight years, but Obama should have strengthen us, not weakened us after he was elected. You cannot show any weakness to your sworn enemies and we have.

[The Chosen One]

Obviously Reagan failed to truly end the Soviet Union if they've been hungry to stay alive since then under Russia.

[Hawk]

Meanwhile, back to the issue at hand:

Guardian: Ukraine crisis sends Russian stock market tumbling
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/ukraine-crisis-russian-stock-market-falls?CMP=twt_gu

[The Chosen One]

Meanwhile, back to the issue at hand:

Guardian: Ukraine crisis sends Russian stock market tumbling
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/ukraine-crisis-russian-stock-market-falls?CMP=twt_gu

Guess this means Obama is going to want to see Russia' s economy collapse before sending troops.

[50PoundHead]

Palin = Tin Man

but..... even a squirrel can get lucky and find a nut.

She was right, this time.

And yes Obama is like Carter, very weak in response when getting bullied.

Do you want to him to bomb Russia? You don't know what's going on behind the scene. It's almost like this is the Cold War in reverse, when it was purported that Reagan's defense build-up crippled the Soviets (who were in decline anyway). So we beef up the defense budget and go ever deeper into deficit, which would further cripple our economy?

I think you have confused keeping one's powder dry with weakness.

[The Chosen One]

Do you want to him to bomb Russia? You don't know what's going on behind the scene. It's almost like this is the Cold War in reverse, when it was purported that Reagan's defense build-up crippled the Soviets (who were in decline anyway). So we beef up the defense budget and go ever deeper into deficit, which would further cripple our economy?

I think you have confused keeping one's powder dry with weakness.

I have no idea what the mainstream conservatives want. I think they want to just go flat out war into Russia. Don't think most of them know that Crimea was ethnically russian already and just want an excuse to show our big d--k diplomacy.

[Hawk]

Don't think most of them know that Crimea was ethnically russian already and just want an excuse to show our big d--k diplomacy.

That still doesn't give Russia an excuse to invade a sovereign nation.

Do you think Putin's actions were justified?

[zitothebrave]

That still doesn't give Russia an excuse to invade a sovereign nation.

Do you think Putin's actions were justified?

No his actions aren't justified. Russia shouldn't invade a sovereign nation.

[Julio3000]

Concerning US response to this… there are a limited number of options that we can reasonably undertake here. Best I can tell, there is pretty broad, bipartisan agreement as to what they are. Maybe we should wait and see before deciding that all is lost.

Suggesting that Putin has been emboldened by US/European reticence MAY be correct, but it's still supposition. A bellicose posture over the last several years might just as well have led to a different unsatisfactory outcome. Pretty much every drop of ink that's been spilled about this is partisan sniping in the space between deliberation and action.

If Russia ends up prying away Crimea, it will get used as a partisan stick to whack Obama with. Still, considering that the groundwork for this has been laid over the last decade or so (to say nothing of the previous decades), I have not seen a coherent case for how a [insert generic Republican here] administration would have forestalled it.

[The Chosen One]

That still doesn't give Russia an excuse to invade a sovereign nation.

Do you think Putin's actions were justified?

Absolutely not justified. It still makes sense as to what is going on and isn't a surprise. Crimea is embracing Russia. Only solution is split east west or Crimea is absorbed officially by Russia.

[zitothebrave]

Absolutely not justified. It still makes sense as to what is going on and isn't a surprise. Crimea is embracing Russia. Only solution is split east west or Crimea is absorbed officially by Russia.

But that should be handled by the people in the nation, not interfered with by outside forces.

[The Chosen One]

But that should be handled by the people in the nation, not interfered with by outside forces.

Mhm.

I do think US has a responsibility to help diplomatically. Not via military intervention

[Hawk]

Absolutely not justified. It still makes sense as to what is going on and isn't a surprise. Crimea is embracing Russia. Only solution is split east west or Crimea is absorbed officially by Russia.

In either of those scenarios Putin wins.

[Hawk]

Mhm.

I do think US has a responsibility to help diplomatically. Not via military intervention

I really don't think anybody is advocating for that kind of show of force, even the warhawks. Putting US troops in the Ukraine would be strategically suicidal.

[Julio3000]

If the US were in Russia's position, the AEI would probably be churning out papers asking why Obama was to chicken**** to just invade Ukraine already.

[Julio3000]

In either of those scenarios Putin wins.

For the sake of argument, Hawk, in what plausible situation does Putin not win and—short of a time machine back to the post-WWII USSR—through what US action could this situation have been avoided?

[The Chosen One]

I really don't think anybody is advocating for that kind of show of force, even the warhawks. Putting US troops in the Ukraine would be strategically suicidal.

So what do the Hawks want? We put troops it's a sign of war
Obama travels there its war, we send Kerry which is the best diplomatic option. Rest of major leaders in Europe on our side. Obama is going for the sanctions and isolation thing and I don't think many think that's good enough. Every scenario Obama does he is called weak unless he does something via force.

[jpx7]

So what do the hawks want?

http://badguyswin.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/tumblr_lklsnfvlji1qzgagmo1_500.jpg

[Hawk]

For the sake of argument, Hawk, in what plausible situation does Putin not win and—short of a time machine back to the post-WWII USSR—through what US action could this situation have been avoided?

Putin doesn't win if he withdraws from Crimea. In fact, he loses -- although the posturing in Moscow will be much along the lines of 'Mission Accomplished'.

The situation could've potentially been avoided by more US engagement abroad, especially in Europe.

[yeezus]

Putin doesn't win if he withdraws from Crimea. In fact, he loses -- although the posturing in Moscow will be much along the lines of 'Mission Accomplished'.

The situation could've potentially been avoided by more US engagement abroad, especially in Europe.

Crimea is largely pro-Russia, how exactly is he not going to take it?
What kind of engagement are you suggesting? Putin was not going to listen to us. He knows he can try for Crimea, and that it's not worth us trying to stop him.
This was borderline unavoidable.

[The Chosen One]

Exactly. Any pre intervention actions would of been a sign of aggression to Putin and make him do it either way.

[Hawk]

So what do the Hawks want? We put troops it's a sign of war
Obama travels there its war, we send Kerry which is the best diplomatic option. Rest of major leaders in Europe on our side. Obama is going for the sanctions and isolation thing and I don't think many think that's good enough. Every scenario Obama does he is called weak unless he does something via force.

Obama is doing the right thing -- ramping up rhetoric, currying favor domestically, and sending his Secretary of State directly into the conflict zone. The Obama administration is being uncharacteristically aggressive. If you oppose foreign entanglements, then you probably shouldn't support what the President is doing right now.

[Hawk]

Crimea is largely pro-Russia, how exactly is he not going to take it?
What kind of engagement are you suggesting? Putin was not going to listen to us. He knows he can try for Crimea, and that it's not worth us trying to stop him.
This was borderline unavoidable.

I don't understand what you mean. Should Mexico be allowed to invade New Mexico because the state is largely pro-Mexican?

Putin is not going to take Crimea (or the Ukraine) because it isn't his to take. Don't forget, Russia has been in Crimea for months handing out Russian passports and basically constructing a valid reason to wade into the country.

This situation was entirely avoidable. A proactive relationship with the Kremlin would've been a good start. The US could actually benefit a great deal from a healthy closeness with Moscow.

[The Chosen One]

I don't understand what you mean. Should Mexico be allowed to invade New Mexico because the state is largely pro-Mexican?

Putin is not going to take Crimea (or the Ukraine) because it isn't his to take. Don't forget, Russia has been in Crimea for months handing out Russian passports and basically constructing a valid reason to wade into the country.

This situation was entirely avoidable. A proactive relationship with the Kremlin would've been a good start. The US could actually benefit a great deal from a healthy closeness with Moscow.

Which is fine but Putin is running Moscow.

[Hawk]

Which is fine but Putin is running Moscow.

Putin is an incredibly savvy businessman and politician.

He's not Stalin. This isn't the Soviet Union.

[yeezus]

I don't understand what you mean. Should Mexico be allowed to invade New Mexico because the state is largely pro-Mexican?

Putin is not going to take Crimea (or the Ukraine) because it isn't his to take. Don't forget, Russia has been in Crimea for months handing out Russian passports and basically constructing a valid reason to wade into the country.

This situation was entirely avoidable. A proactive relationship with the Kremlin would've been a good start. The US could actually benefit a great deal from a healthy closeness with Moscow.

Are we really going to compare Mexico and New Mexico to Russia and Crimea? The two situations are vastly different.
A majority of Crimea wants to be part of Russia.
Putin does not act rationally in the least.

[Julio3000]

Putin doesn't win if he withdraws from Crimea. In fact, he loses -- although the posturing in Moscow will be much along the lines of 'Mission Accomplished'.

The situation could've potentially been avoided by more US engagement abroad, especially in Europe.

Would withdrawal alone be a loss, or would it have to be withdrawal with a full status quo ante situation wrt Crimea's status (not leaving a separatist puppet government, et al)? i'm just trying to sort out what we can realistically expect/effect.

What do you mean, specifically, about action in Europe that could have prevented this?

[Hawk]

Are we really going to compare Mexico and New Mexico to Russia and Crimea? The two situations are vastly different.
A majority of Crimea wants to be part of Russia.
Putin does not act rationally in the least.

I have to, because that's how stunningly ludicrous invading a sovereign country is (in modern times).

I also want to address the notion that a majority of Crimeans desire to break away and join Russia ... they don't -- yes, the region is compromised primarily of ethnic Russians, but there is no universal wish for separatism. As 50 brought up a few pages back, these poor souls just want stability.

[jpx7]

Putin is an incredibly savvy businessman and politician.

He's not Stalin. This isn't the Soviet Union.

Stalin was an incredibly savvy personality and politician.

At this point, Putin can only dream of those fell heights—but I do think he entertains the dream.

[Hawk]

Would withdrawal alone be a loss, or would it have to be withdrawal with a full status quo ante situation wrt Crimea's status (not leaving a separatist puppet government, et al)? i'm just trying to sort out what we can realistically expect/effect.

What do you mean, specifically, about action in Europe that could have prevented this?

I think withdrawal alone would be a loss because it's a tacit admission of over-calculation on Moscow's part. If said situation were to play out Putin would obviously claim the reason Russia pulled out was because they felt as though the interests of the people they went in to protect had been adequately safeguarded.

After that, I don't support the United States being a direct part of any nation building effort in Ukraine (or the region). We leave that to the EU and, more specifically, Eastern European states like Poland and Hungary. Russia will obviously be involved, too, and rightfully so, because they do share a border with Ukraine. Emphasis on border.

As for what 'specific' actions could've prevented this? That would be impossible to pinpoint. But I feel comfortable asserting that the Obama Administration's complete lack of involvement in European affairs certainly precipitated Putin's willingness to plow 6,000 troops into Ukraine just a few hours after Obama specifically warned him against doing just that.

[Hawk]

Stalin was an incredibly savvy personality and politician.

At this point, Putin can only dream of those fell heights—but I do think he entertains the dream.

As he should, he's created for himself a throne wielding incredible amounts of power (in a democracy, no less).

Full disclosure: I like Putin.

[jpx7]

As he should, he's created for himself a throne wielding incredible amounts of power (in a democracy, no less).

Full disclosure: I like Putin.

I sort of had that sense, but wanted you to come out and say it.

Full disclosure: I think he's a terrible scourge.

[Hawk]

Full disclosure: I think he's a terrible scourge.

I can overlook the social injustices, for now.

[Hawk]

@NastiaChurkina: #Russia at #UN: What if #Obama went to California, and #Romney moved into the White House & republicans quickly impeached him? Democracy?
[ http://twitter.com/NastiaChurkina/status/440609034568093697 ]

[The Chosen One]

@NastiaChurkina: #Russia at #UN: What if #Obama went to California, and #Romney moved into the White House & republicans quickly impeached him? Democracy?
[ http://twitter.com/NastiaChurkina/status/440609034568093697 ]

What a stupid analogy. Lol.

[Krgrecw]

Putin is an incredibly savvy businessman and politician.

He's not Stalin. This isn't the Soviet Union.

How many people do you think Putin has had killed? Thousands if not tens of thousands? That overrides a good business man and politician. He's a good politician because he jails and inprisons his opponents if not has them killed. It's not like the dude runs and wins in a fair voting system.

[The Chosen One]

I think withdrawal alone would be a loss because it's a tacit admission of over-calculation on Moscow's part. If said situation were to play out Putin would obviously claim the reason Russia pulled out was because they felt as though the interests of the people they went in to protect had been adequately safeguarded.

After that, I don't support the United States being a direct part of any nation building effort in Ukraine (or the region). We leave that to the EU and, more specifically, Eastern European states like Poland and Hungary. Russia will obviously be involved, too, and rightfully so, because they do share a border with Ukraine. Emphasis on border.

As for what 'specific' actions could've prevented this? That would be impossible to pinpoint. But I feel comfortable asserting that the Obama Administration's complete lack of involvement in European affairs certainly precipitated Putin's willingness to plow 6,000 troops into Ukraine just a few hours after Obama specifically warned him against doing just that.

Could you cite such European affairs? The ones that come to mind were bailouts in Greece and Spain. Refresh my memory please.

[The Chosen One]

How many people do you think Putin has had killed? Thousands if not tens of thousands? That overrides a good business man and politician. He's a good politician because he jails and inprisons his opponents if not has them killed. It's not like the dude runs and wins in a fair voting system.

I actually agree with this. However unlike you don't see the need now to purposely have a military conflict.

[Julio3000]

I'm fascinated by Russia and love many things Russian. My progression with Putin went something like this: I was entertained, then cynically appreciative, then aghast, then repulsed (though still respectful of his dark talents). One of the more comedic moments of the Bush presidency was when Dubs proclaimed that he'd looked into Putin's eyes and seen his soul. The owner of those eyes then proceeded to cynically latch onto Bush's Global War on Terror (tm) in order to take the gloves off in the Caucasus, then later invade Georgia, with shootin' and lootin' and everything. Bush's response to Georgia makes Obama's response to the Ukraine provocation look like a full-on McCain-ian War Tumescence.

As for what 'specific' actions could've prevented this? That would be impossible to pinpoint. But I feel comfortable asserting that the Obama Administration's complete lack of involvement in European affairs certainly precipitated Putin's willingness to plow 6,000 troops into Ukraine just a few hours after Obama specifically warned him against doing just that.

Thanks for answering. I'm not trying to goad you—I'm just not sure where exactly American fp has been amiss. I'm not saying that it hasn't, I just don't hear a lot of specifics from folks who are griping now. It would seem like you'd be in favor of closer ties with neighboring states, but you also think that we've been less friendly to Russia than we ought to have been.