6/20: giants' game 1

[msstate7]

Acuna
Swanson
Riley
Olson
TDA c
Ozuna DH
Duvall
Arcia
Harris

Fried

[Enscheff]

Apparently fried just let a FA go at 100.3. I’m skeptical.

[Ozzie Swanson]

Did Fried really just hit 100mph on that first pitch ball to Flores?

[CyYoung31]

Apparently fried just let a FA go at 100.3. I’m skeptical.

All I know was that last curve to Yaz was pure filth.

[CyYoung31]

This game is a loss. You can always tell when they’re going to play like **** when they start playing sloppy defense.

[CyYoung31]

Braves should send two catchers to ASG.

[thethe]

TDA showing out with stiff competition behind him.

[thewupk]

Does Fried have the best pickoff since Pettite?

[CyYoung31]

Does Fried have the best pickoff since Pettite?

Teheran.

[thewupk]

Braves should send two catchers to ASG.

I mean there is a valid argument. If you filter it down to 110 PA's for catchers. TDA is 2nd in fWAR while Contreras is 1st in WRC+

[thewupk]

At least we cleared the pitcher that inning

[msstate7]

This dude can hit

[msstate7]

Ronald gonna have to change his name to Webb jr

[Runnin]

I wonder how Ronald would feel if the pitcher jumped up and made a big slashing gesture after striking him out. Just a matter of time before pitchers start celebrating themselves.

[msstate7]

I wonder how Ronald would feel if the pitcher jumped up and made a big slashing gesture after striking him out. Just a matter of time before pitchers start celebrating themselves.

That would be pretty funny

[msstate7]

I hate facing this guy.

[jsebe10]

Does Fried have the best pickoff since Pettite?

Neither one of their moves holds a candle to what Steve Avery had…That MFer would pick you before you took your first step off the bag. Easily the best Lh move ever.

[jsebe10]

I hate facing this guy.

If you try to pull everything like we do it’s going to be a long night.

[thewupk]

I hate facing this guy.

most teams hate facing Fried

[msstate7]

most teams hate facing Fried
They absolutely do. One team will lose a tough game tonight

[msstate7]

Man, I thought he got that

[WaitingFor2017]

That Olson ball just died.

[thewupk]

That Olson ball just died.

dead ball is dead

[chop2chip]

This game reminds me how huge Fried was against the Giants last September. After losing the first two games (including the Will Smith blown save / Gausman walkoff), he shut out a great lineup. From that game on, we never skipped a beat.

[chop2chip]

Ball just is not carrying to right. I thought Olson and Harris both squared those out.

[thewupk]

a foot short. damn

[msstate7]

I like the left handed Acuna better

[thewupk]

Acuna sucks

[msstate7]

Olson getting the ball in the air

[chop2chip]

Logan Webb previewing what we are going to get out of Soroka in a month.

[msstate7]

Logan Webb previewing what we are going to get out of Soroka in a month.

Has there been an update on soroka?

[msstate7]

Great job, max. That should be it.

[Garmel]

Olson's two hard hit flyballs had a launch angle of 38 and 25 degrees. His groundout was at -26 degrees.

[The Chosen One]

Fried is Frieding more than usual. Outrageous.

[CyYoung31]

Zero reason for Fried to be pitching the 8th.

[jsebe10]

I bet if you put a gun to Duvall’s head and say “try to hit this pitch the other way or I’ll kill you” …his family will be making funeral arrangements.

[jsebe10]

Zero reason for Fried to be pitching the 8th.

6-7-8 hitters…I don’t see a problem.

[thewupk]

here it comes

[msstate7]

And now they have a runner on. Didn't like fried going back out

[CyYoung31]

Fried will get pulled without recording an out.

[jsebe10]

Literally could have just flipped it to 1B by hand.

[msstate7]

Neither were hit hard, but when you make dumb decisions like sending a guy back out there, you get bad results

[chop2chip]

Didn’t have an issue leaving him in to face the LH. Too old school to let Fried face the string of right handlers.

[The Chosen One]

You have the best bullpen in the game and you’re warming up Will Smith…

[msstate7]

And the pen just gets up. Snit is a moron

[msstate7]

Snit lost the game

[jsebe10]

Yea y’all were right.

[The Chosen One]

This is where Snit not knowing how to manage consistently against good teams is going to hurt us.

players bail him out against bad teams. The margins are thinner against good teams.

[Garmel]

Just awful managing.

[CyYoung31]

Fried will get pulled without recording an out.

Oh, man. Biggest ****ing surprise of the season.

[Garmel]

Why isn't Minter out there?

[bravesnumberone]

No issue with Fried going back out. Bringing in Smith here is dumb as hell.

[UNCBlue012]

Will Smith? Are you ****ing kidding me, Snit?

Also, this is how the Giants won so many games last year. Mainly weird ass luck like this

[The Chosen One]

What’s ironic is usually snit tries to save minter until we have a lead and uses smith when we’re behind.

now we have a tight lead and snit brings in Smith Lmao.

[Garmel]

Oh, man. Biggest ****ing surprise of the season.

We see it happen so often you would think Snit would eventually learn but he doesn't.

[bravesnumberone]

Why isn't Minter out there?

Hopefully he is “unavailable” today. Otherwise, horrible decision.

[jsebe10]

Too many sliders. Throw something else

[bravesnumberone]

Smith can’t put away lefties.

[msstate7]

Big out. Good job, duvall

[TURBO]

I thought that was dropping for sure

[CyYoung31]

No infield fly? Should’ve let it drop and got a double play.

[msstate7]

Thanks snit

[UNCBlue012]

This dude is as incompetent as they come

[jsebe10]

Toss that MFer 8 bull **** sliders on his foot and forced yourself to have to groove him a fastball.

[bravesnumberone]

I really hope Minter wasn’t available tonight.

[thewupk]

Smith is the worst reliever in the pen. lol what a joke

[jsebe10]

Throwing too many off speed pitches….it’s gonna burn gim

[CyYoung31]

Lmao. Flores is awful.

[bravesnumberone]

Throwing too many off speed pitches….it’s gonna burn gim

Never seen a closer/off-and-on closer be so incapable of putting guys away with a fastball.

[CyYoung31]

Grand Slam coming up.

[UNCBlue012]

Wow. Shockingly good pitching

[msstate7]

Great play, Olson.
Great job, will

[bravesnumberone]

Olson has been a ****ing adventure on defense.

[CyYoung31]

He was safe.

[TURBO]

He was safe.

He wasnt

[CyYoung31]

I mean, by a literal eye lash.

[Hudson2]

Nice play! Olson would of had a hard time getting there anyway. That was sweet

[msstate7]

Wow. Shockingly good pitching

He's been good in June.

[bravesfanforlife88]

Lucky to only give up 1

[CrimsonCowboy]

Great play at the end. Don’t forget the throw by Harris to keep the lead run from scoring

[msstate7]

Lucky to only give up 1

They're lucky to have gotten 1

[msstate7]

PH ford for Acuna?

[msstate7]

Can Harris steal?

[Hudson2]

Harris is freakin impressive man.

[bravesnumberone]

PH ford for Acuna?

Pinch run Ford for Harris.

[msstate7]

Harris is mark grace at the plate

[bravesnumberone]

Double steal with Harris and Acuna.

[msstate7]

Bunt with Swanson?

[CyYoung31]

Is Acuña going to hit again?

[msstate7]

Swanson taking that pitch is really nice

[bravesnumberone]

Lol **** off.

[CyYoung31]

Lmao. What a joke.

[msstate7]

I don't like bunting in many spots, but I absolutely like it in that spot

[CyYoung31]

EV on that line out?

[Enscheff]

H2 where you going bruh?

[CrimsonCowboy]

Giants bunt and bloop: Get a run

Braves hard hit: Double play

[msstate7]

H2 where you going bruh?

Left hand Acuna not the same base runner

[Garmel]

EV on that line out?

107

[thewupk]

EV on that line out?

107

[msstate7]

I'd steal here

[msstate7]

Riley, don't swing shoulder high

[jsebe10]

Yea Austin you should probably swing the god damn bat there.

[msstate7]

Riley with an awful AB.

[msstate7]

Yea Austin you should probably swing the god damn bat there.

Swing at fastballs well high, and watch em in the zone

[bravesnumberone]

Can’t leave the bat on your shoulders there. Awful.

[msstate7]

Will joc PH this Inning?

[msstate7]

Belt
Prob joc
Gonzalez

All lhh

[bravesnumberone]

Will joc PH this Inning?

Feels like he will get the game winner.

[jsebe10]

Will joc PH this Inning?

Probably not…fortunately for us the Giants manager is a bigger fckn idiot than ours…and he’s a liberal douche.

[msstate7]

Jeez

[CyYoung31]

Cool, Joc. Just do us a solid now.

[USMA76]

Joc singles to left on an 0-3 count.

[CyYoung31]

Lmao. Come the **** on.

[CrimsonCowboy]

That was a lucky hit

[bravesnumberone]

Tends to happen when you leave the whole ****ing side of the infield open. And now here we are.

[USMA76]

That was a lucky hit

Not the first one for the Giants, I might add.

[bravesnumberone]

We have got to start putting ****ing hitters away 0-2.

[WaitingFor2017]

Walk Crawford here?

[bravesnumberone]

Minter must be dead.

[CyYoung31]

Walk Crawford.

[Hudson2]

Nice job! Olson walk off coming

[WaitingFor2017]

Elite Kenley

[bravesnumberone]

This would be a good time for Matt Olson to do something.

[Enscheff]

What in the world kind of heater was Jansen just throwing?

[Ozzie Swanson]

What in the world kind of heater was Jansen just throwing?

MLB at bat called it a sinker but it looks to have some ridiculous ride up in the zone away from lefties.

[CyYoung31]

As we know, if we don’t win it here, it’s over.

[Enscheff]

Those 2 sinkers moved 5” and 7” arm side. His cutter moves 8”-9” glove side.

If he all of a sudden has both pitches, I’m not sure how a hitter will ever be able to square him up.

[CyYoung31]

Pinch run for Olson.

[msstate7]

Not sure about PR while Olson at 1b

[CyYoung31]

How will the Braves get doubled up here?

[Enscheff]

Pinch running for Olson in a tie game seems like a bad idea.

[msstate7]

How will the Braves get doubled up here?

Traditionally. That's why I woulda waited to PR

[Hudson2]

I wouldn’t have pinch ran there. Maybe if he was at 2nd with no outs but not 1st

[bravesnumberone]

Well that was our chance. No chance Ozuna or Duvall square this guy up.

[CyYoung31]

Pinch running for Olson in a tie game seems like a bad idea.

Not after Ozuna gaps one.

[Hudson2]

Dumbass Ozuna with that long back swing

[CyYoung31]

Wtf?

[bravesnumberone]

Can we pinch hit in the middle of this at bat?

[CrimsonCowboy]

What?

[Enscheff]

Umpire interference just cost the Braves a stolen base. Never seen that particular type of horse **** before.

[CyYoung31]

Not after Ozuna gaps one.

Damn, not quite.

[msstate7]

Duvall, just sell out for a fastball

[Enscheff]

Aaaaand umpire interference just cost the Braves the winning run.

[bravesnumberone]

No grounders please.

[msstate7]

Do you let Arcia hit? I think Arcia does well against velocity

[Enscheff]

The giants announcers called it umpire interference. Was it actually on Ozuna?

[msstate7]

The giants announcers called it umpire interference. Was it actually on Ozuna?

Yes

[Enscheff]

Yes

Oh then I don’t feel so cheated haha

[bravesnumberone]

So predictable

[CyYoung31]

DuFail.

[msstate7]

Olson's spot could come up in 10th. Hope we don't regret that

[TURBO]

https://media.giphy.com/media/vzuqin231fC92/giphy.gif

[Hudson2]

Arcia!!! Ballgame!!

[msstate7]

Arcia

[CrimsonCowboy]

https://wompimages-azureedge-net.cdn.ampproject.org/ii/w820/s/wompimages.azureedge.net/fetchimage?url=https://i.chzbgr.com/full/6806376192/h13D80AD0/gif-of-the-day-elephant-jumping-on-a-trampoline

[msstate7]

PR was the correct play. Olson doesn't score

[CyYoung31]

Arcia has the last two walk off hits for the Braves.

[Enscheff]

Olson's spot could come up in 10th. Hope we don't regret that

I hated the move but Olson may not score there

[bravesnumberone]

Arcia

[Mad Dog Murph]

Woot woot

[msstate7]

If gosselin's role is PR, wouldn't Deshields be better?

[jsebe10]

Good win! Kapler literally threw the kitchen sink and the best they had for the 8th inning on and we survived it.

[CrimsonCowboy]

Second walk off for Arcia

[Hudson2]

I hated the move but Olson don’t score there

Fixed

[CrimsonCowboy]

That was one heck of a game

[WaitingFor2017]

Huge win. Logan Webb is the best SP the Giants were throwing out this series (I like Webb more than Rodon). It's nice to start this off with a win and going against a potential Giants bullpen game tomorrow.

[bravesnumberone]

That felt a bit like October.

[CrazyTrain]

Our bench guys always seem to step up in big spots. Great game.

[msstate7]

Strider is gonna see a whole lot of LhHs tomorrow.

[jsebe10]

God I hope strider shoves it down their fckn throat tomorrow.

[CyYoung31]

Winning game one sets us up well to split the series, which we desperately need.

[Hulavol]

That right there was a damn fun game, and glad to be on winning side! Great start to big week!
Strider gonna throwing some heat tomorrow!

[jsebe10]

Thanks to stupid ass MLB scheduling the Mets don’t seem to play any fckn one other than the Marlins until the fckn all star break. We got work to do.

[msstate7]

Thanks to stupid ass MLB scheduling the Mets don’t seem to play any fckn one other than the Marlins until the fckn all star break. We got work to do.

Maybe they see alcantara and Pablo this weekend

[WaitingFor2017]

Do you move Michael Harris up in the lineup a bit or keep him where he is? I don't like seeing Duvall getting more at-bats than him.

[WaitingFor2017]

Maybe they see alcantara and Pablo this weekend


Sandy, yes. Pablo, no.

Meanwhile, the Phillies are throwing the kitchen sink at us next week with Wheeler, Suarez, and Nola.

[WaitingFor2017]

Thanks to stupid ass MLB scheduling the Mets don’t seem to play any fckn one other than the Marlins until the fckn all star break. We got work to do.

Thankfully, the MLB is doing the right thing next year in scaling back division games from 19 games each vs. every division team to 14. I'd rather see 12, but 14 is better than 19. But you're right about the Mets and Marlins. They both play each other 19 times roughly in the final 100 games for each team. 20% is a ridiculous number this late in the season.

[zbhargrove]

Do you move Michael Harris up in the lineup a bit or keep him where he is? I don't like seeing Duvall getting more at-bats than him.

Duvall has been pretty good lately. Harris is the youngest player currently in the MLB and raking. Don’t mess with that when Acuna hits after him.

[zbhargrove]

Thanks to stupid ass MLB scheduling the Mets don’t seem to play any fckn one other than the Marlins until the fckn all star break. We got work to do.

I mean they were just complaining about our cupcake stretch and we all play the same schedule. We should have played better at the start of the year. No reason to bitch about scheduling.

[Enscheff]

Do you move Michael Harris up in the lineup a bit or keep him where he is? I don't like seeing Duvall getting more at-bats than him.

I suspect Acuna following Harris somewhat limits the LHPs Harris might otherwise face. His numbers are due for some serious regression, and I think he’s fine in the 9 spot even if he’s better than guys like Duvall and Arcia.

[Nerfherders]

I'm so happy bally decided not to black out the replay on this one. What a great game! It was the closest to a playoff game Ive seen this year. So many amazing defensive plays and clutch pitching and hitting. Wow!

[thewupk]

I hated the move but Olson may not score there

zero chance Olson scores

[thethe]

Team is rounding into form. It’ll be nice when matzek comes back and hopefully Yates helps because right now the bullpen is the big weakness.

[jsebe10]

I mean they were just complaining about our cupcake stretch and we all play the same schedule. We should have played better at the start of the year. No reason to bitch about scheduling.

I mean come on man…They play the Marlins 11 times in a 17 game stretch….

[msstate7]

I mean come on man…They play the Marlins 11 times in a 17 game stretch….

Maybe the marlins will get some hitters back soon. They're missing what 3-4 starters?

[bravesfanMatt]

I mean come on man…They play the Marlins 11 times in a 17 game stretch….

We play the fish the same exact amount of times as the Mutts. We just finished a stretch of 17 games or more of extremely crappy teams.

[bravesfanMatt]

Maybe the marlins will get some hitters back soon. They're missing what 3-4 starters?

I just want to stay around 4-7 games to the Mutts before we start playing them again. Those games will determine the division if that happens. If we slip back to 10 games, then it is over imo.

[msstate7]

Is will smith good?

He sucks...
5.15 FIP
4.27 xFIP

No, he's good...
.287 xwoba
2.96 xera

Actual numbers...
3.51 era
9.12 k9, 4.21 bb9

[bravesfanMatt]

Is will smith good?

He sucks...
5.15 FIP
4.27 xFIP

No, he's good...
.287 xwoba
2.96 xera

Actual numbers...
3.51 era
9.12 k9, 4.21 bb9

I think he is very average personally. He has his moments, but I don't trust him. We need two more guys to really solidify this pen.

[msstate7]

I think he is very average personally. He has his moments, but I don't trust him. We need two more guys to really solidify this pen.

Like matzek and yates? Not sure I'd be looking for a reliever if those 2 are expected back

[bravesfanMatt]

Like matzek and yates? Not sure I'd be looking for a reliever if those 2 are expected back

Hopefully

[msstate7]

Hopefully

Soroka is another guy. Not sure about being a reliever, but a good pitcher that could allow us to reshuffle the rotation some

[bravesfanMatt]

Soroka is another guy. Not sure about being a reliever, but a good pitcher that could allow us to reshuffle the rotation some

I too feel good about the pen being a plus come playoff time. Soroka/Matzek and hopefully Yates will add depth to the entire staff

[thewupk]

Harris up to a 344 xWOBA. Dude is popping off.

[thewupk]

Is will smith good?

He sucks...
5.15 FIP
4.27 xFIP

No, he's good...
.287 xwoba
2.96 xera

Actual numbers...
3.51 era
9.12 k9, 4.21 bb9

Any reliever with a BB/9 over 4 is garbage. Can't be trusted. He also gives up a lot of bombs. Not a good combo.

[thethe]

Harris up to a 344 xWOBA. Dude is popping off.

Was he hitting the ball hard to LF this much in the minors?

Its uncanny.

[thewupk]

Was he hitting the ball hard to LF this much in the minors?

Its uncanny.

Don't watch MILB games so I can't answer that.

[msstate7]

Any reliever with a BB/9 over 4 is garbage. Can't be trusted. He also gives up a lot of bombs. Not a good combo.

Fair enough.

In June, he's at 11.37 k9, 2.84 bb9 with 2.70 xFIP, so I'm in the wait and see boat.

[msstate7]

Harris up to a 344 xWOBA. Dude is popping off.

Reason #67,432 baseball is a cruel game...

Harris .344 xwoba, .407 wOBA
Ozuna .366 xwoba, .298 wOBA

[msstate7]

Speaking of xwoba, Olson is creeping up to his last season...
2021: .378
2022: .362

[thewupk]

Reason #67,432 baseball is a cruel game...

Harris .344 xwoba, .407 wOBA
Ozuna .366 xwoba, .298 wOBA

young blood just knows how to hit

[thewupk]

Speaking of xwoba, Olson is creeping up to his last season...
2021: .378
2022: .362

of course he is. a slightly lower launch angle and the dead baseball is the reason his numbers are worse than last season.

[Garmel]

Acuna has a much lower launch angle this year too. What's up with that?

[bravesfanMatt]

We need more xBACON stats please.. with over easy xEGG stats.

[msstate7]

of course he is. a slightly lower launch angle and the dead baseball is the reason his numbers are worse than last season.

Do you trust this stat or not? You like it for Harris, but not will smith and newcomb. I really don't know enough about it, but I do remember enscheff saying this is the #1 stat to follow for pitchers

[thewupk]

Do you trust this stat or not? You like it for Harris, but not will smith and newcomb. I really don't know enough about it, but I do remember enscheff saying this is the #1 stat to follow for pitchers

I mentioned this issue with Newcomb. And Will Smith has the same thing going on right now.

[Enscheff]

Reason #67,432 baseball is a cruel game...

Harris .344 xwoba, .407 wOBA
Ozuna .366 xwoba, .298 wOBA

Ozuna has consistently underperformed his xwOBA over the entire Statcast era. It seems there is something negative about his offensive profile that isn't being captured by the xwOBA inputs.

Batted ball direction, poor spin rates or axes on his batted balls, something is causing his performance to not match the xwOBA inputs.

[msstate7]

Ozuna has consistently underperformed his xwOBA over the entire Statcast era. It seems there is something negative about his offensive profile that isn't being captured by the xwOBA inputs.

Batted ball direction, poor spin rates or axes on his batted balls, something is causing his performance to not match the xwOBA inputs.

Looks like the 3 seasons ('19, '21, '22) he's really underperformed his xwoba, he had a really poor Babip. Could it be bad luck?

[atl717]

Ozuna has consistently underperformed his xwOBA over the entire Statcast era. It seems there is something negative about his offensive profile that isn't being captured by the xwOBA inputs.

Batted ball direction, poor spin rates or axes on his batted balls, something is causing his performance to not match the xwOBA inputs.

I read a few years ago that he tends to get less backspin and more top spin on his batted balls due to his swing. That’s why he’s been a consistent underperformer. More than the average number of long fly outs.

[chop2chip]

Fair enough.

In June, he's at 11.37 k9, 2.84 bb9 with 2.70 xFIP, so I'm in the wait and see boat.

He’s basically a one pitch pitcher these days. The slider is very good and he has a high chase rate. I expect he will dominate bad lineups that are not as disciplined (like he has in June). I think he’s especially matchup dependent, which is fine for his current role. Any high leverage he can spare Minter from is a win until Matzek is back.

[chop2chip]

Acuna has a much lower launch angle this year too. What's up with that?
Sample size

[chop2chip]

Do you trust this stat or not? You like it for Harris, but not will smith and newcomb. I really don't know enough about it, but I do remember enscheff saying this is the #1 stat to follow for pitchers

xWOBA is great at contextualizing performance. It does the hard work of consolidating all those individual moments during where we say “he’s lucky that stayed in the ball park”, or “BABIP gods are unkind” etc. I think it’s slightly a misnomer to suggest that it’s a predictive stat only because a good prediction relies on a composite of a lot of things. You really need to dig into the “lot of things” if you want to understand.

Olson and Ozuna have the same xWOBA, but there little otherwise to suggest the two have comparable results or will have similar future performance. Olson has better plate discipline, he hits the ball harder, and his batted ball profile is much superior to Ozuna.

[msstate7]

Strider threw 106 pitches last time. Think he'll be on a pitch count tonight?

2021 ip: 93 ip
2022 ip: 44 ip

How much past 93 ip do you think they'll let em go?

[chop2chip]

Strider threw 106 pitches last time. Think he'll be on a pitch count tonight?

2021 ip: 93 ip
2022 ip: 44 ip

How much past 93 ip do you think they'll let em go?
Still curious what the plan is for Strider. There’s no way he should be allowed to continue a normal starting pitchers workload for the remainder of the year no matter how “easy” his delivery is on his arm.

I expect AA will need to step in at some point and take the decision out of Snitker’s hand. My guess is he’s waiting for Soroka to come back next month and they’ll transition Strider back to the bullpen.

[bravesfanMatt]

Still curious what the plan is for Strider. There’s no way he should be allowed to continue a normal starting pitchers workload for the remainder of the year no matter how “easy” his delivery is on his arm.

I expect AA will need to step in at some point and take the decision out of Snitker’s hand. My guess is he’s waiting for Soroka to come back next month and they’ll transition Strider back to the bullpen.

I think a modified 6 man rotation with a stint on the 15 DL due to finger discomfort or something.

[Hudson2]

Soroka will be monitored for sure when he comes back. Why not let Srider and Soroka be our 5th starter? Let Soroka go the first 4 and Strider the last 4 or vice versa.

[CyYoung31]

Acuna has a much lower launch angle this year too. What's up with that?

I read somewhere that teams are now telling hitters to drive down on the ball instead of up, due to the dead baseballs. That may explain it.

[Enscheff]

I think a modified 6 man rotation with a stint on the 15 DL due to finger discomfort or something.

This is probably what will happen. They should be able to shuffle things around to give Strider and Soroka 5+ days of rest for the remainder of the season. Sort of like a platoon in the 5th SP slot.

One thing AA seems to have successfully brought over from LA is an excellent load management program for SPs. I have almost no worry the Braves will overwork any SP.

[bravesfanMatt]

Soroka will be monitored for sure when he comes back. Why not let Srider and Soroka be our 5th starter? Let Soroka go the first 4 and Strider the last 4 or vice versa.

Have we ever seen a piggyback system like that utilized before. Seems like it might be a waste of two good resources to piggy back them like that

[msstate7]

I'm ready to see muller give a spot start. His numbers have been excellent in AAA. I would choose that start based on a team he could potentially have success... marlins, not dodgers

[msstate7]

I'm excited to see Morton this week against 2 good teams. In June, he's...

14.5 k9, 2.0 bb9
3.24 FIP
1.96 xFIP

He might be back...

[thethe]

94 games left. Approximately 19 starts left for Strider (since he is up next). ~100 extra innings (assuming 5 1/3 per start) which would give him 144 on the year.

Last year he had ~96 innings. Assuming 20-30% increase that gets us to ~116-125 innings load that seems manageable.

I also want him in the playoffs so think we need to get his innings pitched number to ~100 by end of season (Delta of 56 from this point). This would seem about 11 more starts so ideally that is the runway I see for Strider left in the regular season.

[The Chosen One]

94 games left. Approximately 19 starts left for Strider (since he is up next). ~100 extra innings (assuming 5 1/3 per start) which would give him 144 on the year.

Last year he had ~96 innings. Assuming 20-30% increase that gets us to ~116-125 innings load that seems manageable.

I also want him in the playoffs so think we need to get his innings pitched number to ~100 by end of season (Delta of 56 from this point). This would seem about 11 more starts so ideally that is the runway I see for Strider left in the regular season.

Good luck expecting Snitker to manage his inning load. Dude consistently tries to extend strider an extra inning or two.

[thethe]

I think AA takes it out of his hands.

Two 3 week vacations would work well for Strider or as others have suggested skipping him in the rotation around 5 times could put him in a good spot come playoff time.

[MadduxFanII]

I read a few years ago that he tends to get less backspin and more top spin on his batted balls due to his swing. That’s why he’s been a consistent underperformer. More than the average number of long fly outs.

Back when we signed him the first time I posted something from a Cardinals blog making more or less this exact point. I don't think I can go back that far in my CC profile to find that post, but I definitely remember this point.

[Enscheff]

xWOBA is great at contextualizing performance. It does the hard work of consolidating all those individual moments during where we say “he’s lucky that stayed in the ball park”, or “BABIP gods are unkind” etc. I think it’s slightly a misnomer to suggest that it’s a predictive stat only because a good prediction relies on a composite of a lot of things. You really need to dig into the “lot of things” if you want to understand.

Olson and Ozuna have the same xWOBA, but there little otherwise to suggest the two have comparable results or will have similar future performance. Olson has better plate discipline, he hits the ball harder, and his batted ball profile is much superior to Ozuna.

There are definitely some holes in xwOBA:

1. It doesn't take batted ball direction into account. Extreme example: a player who always hits rockets directly at the LFer would have a huge xwOBA and terrible actual results.

2. It doesn't understand true talent inputs. Extreme example: a bloop hit has a high xwOBA based on exit velocity and launch angle, but getting bloop hits is not a reproducible skill.

3. It assumes an average athlete after contact. Extreme example: a batter who trips over 1st base every time would have an actual SLG value much less than his xSLG.

4. It has no idea about batted ball spin. Extreme example: a batter who imparts lots of side/top spin on hits could lose up to 20' on FBs/LDs and really lower his actual production.