Riley gets monster extension

[UNCBlue012]

The Atlanta #Braves have signed 3B Austin Riley to a 10-year contract worth $212 million. Holy cow!

[Heyward]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZG41ddXgAMTUBq?format=jpg&name=small

[msstate7]

Have to think Acuna and albies gonna be pissed. Regardless, great job, AA

[zbhargrove]

Holy sheet! Great stuff!

[Heyward]

Have to think Acuna and albies gonna be pissed. Regardless, great job, AA

I'd imagine we'll re-do their deals at some point.

[msstate7]

How many years of albies, Acuna, Harris, Riley, and Olson does this ensure?

[Mad Dog Murph]

Hell yea

[Heyward]

How many years of albies, Acuna, Harris, Riley, and Olson does this ensure?

I think we have all until 2027. Just looked at Albies deal and yeah, AA's gonna have to re-do that at some point.

[bravesfanforlife88]

So ****ing erect

[Tapate50]

DAMN

[msstate7]

I think we have all until 2027. Just looked at Albies deal and yeah, AA's gonna have to re-do that at some point.

Very nice.

Gotta start thinking pitching

[thethe]

That’s actually a great deal in terms of AAV and the time we’ve got him locked up for.

AA is literally the GOAT.

[jsebe10]

There has to be an opt out in there some where lol

[jpx7]

A $21.2m AAV still seems like a bargain, and isn't so much more than Acuña's AAV (even if he's nevertheless underpaid over the life of that deal).

But the Albies contract is still a joke of a bargain, in comparison.

Lock up Bae or Correa and the infield is basically set for the window.

[Heyward]

There has to be an opt out in there some where lol

Nah it's full 10 years. Riley probably didnt wanna leave, and said i'll stay.

[Heyward]

A $21.2m AAV still seems like a bargain, and isn't so much more than Acuña's AAV (even if he's nevertheless underpaid over the life of that deal).

But the Albies contract is still a joke of a bargain, in comparison.

Lock up Bae or Correa and the infield is basically set for the window.

I'd hope we re-do Albies deal at some point, he's making pennies compares to others. What kind of deal would you give Max if you could, pitcher contracts are tricky though.

[thewupk]

22 per in his free agent years? Have to think that's a win.

[jpx7]

Nah it's full 10 years. Riley probably didnt wanna leave, and said i'll stay.

He learned a lesson from Freeman's lachrymose displays.

[Hudson2]

Yeah didn’t see this coming. 21 average AAV is a big time bargain. Riley seems like a good dude that isn’t out for the most money and this proves it. Super pumped about this. Lock up Fried next

[msstate7]

A $21.2m AAV still seems like a bargain, and isn't so much more than Acuña's AAV (even if he's nevertheless underpaid over the life of that deal).

But the Albies contract is still a joke of a bargain, in comparison.

Lock up Bae or Correa and the infield is basically set for the window.

Dansby deal could be next

[jsebe10]

Nah it's full 10 years. Riley probably didnt wanna leave, and said i'll stay.

Love those kind of guys…few hours from the house…Loves the culture…

[Bluedevilruss]

Yeah didn’t see this coming. 21 average AAV is a big time bargain. Riley seems like a good dude that isn’t out for the most money and this proves it. Super pumped about this. Lock up Fried next

We can thank Freddie’s debacle for this I imagine. Stoked that he’s a Brave for life now though.

[Heyward]

Love those kind of guys…few hours from the house…Loves the culture…

He is taking some risk given he'd probably get more in free agency but cant fault a guy for taking guaranteed money while it's in front of you. He can just play ball for the rest of his career knowing he's signed for the rest of his career.

[Buzzworm]

I know what he’s doing now probably isn’t sustainable, and there’s always risk when your giving up this much money and years but i think this will be a great deal for the Braves.
Now Lock up Max.

[Heyward]

Dansby deal could be next

I'd sign Max next, but AA has said signing pitchers to long-term deals is risky.

[anthmilliu]

This seems like a good deal on the surface but also terrifying to give out a 10 year commitment.

[jpx7]

I'd hope we re-do Albies deal at some point, he's making pennies compares to others. What kind of deal would you give Max if you could, pitcher contracts are tricky though.

It's tough, because Fried's already 28. However, he has the repertoire, and has shown the adaptability already, to seem like a better bet than most starters to remain productive. Would Fried take something 6/$110, with an option, to buy out two arb years and four FA years? If you value him as a ~4war pitcher next year, and bake in decline, he's probably worth $55-65m over the next two years, then another $70-80m over the four subsequent seasons; that's $125–145m of value, making $110m a slight to moderate discount that hedges against pitcher durability. Just depends on how much Fried would want to stick around, and how much he'd like to secure guaranteed compensation now, versus going into FA as a 30-year-old.

[Heyward]

It's tough, because Fried's already 28. However, he has the repertoire, and has shown the adaptability already, to seem like a better bet than most starters to remain productive. Would Fried take something 6/$110, with an option, to buy out two arb years and four FA years? If you value him as a ~4war pitcher next year, and bake in decline, he's probably worth $55-65m over the next two years, then another $70-80m over the four subsequent seasons; that's $125–145m of value, making $110m a slight to moderate discount that hedges against pitcher durability. Just depends on how much Fried would want to stick around, and how much he'd like to secure guaranteed compensation now, versus going into FA as a 30-year-old.

Berrios got 7 years/131 million at the same age as Max. It's tricky if he wants to hit FA and see if anyone would overpay for him or get the financial security locked in now.

[TURBO]

Ozzie, Ronald, Olson, and Riley locked up through at least 2028 for a combined ~63M AAV

[jpx7]

Berrios got 7 years/131 million at the same age as Max. It's tricky if he wants to hit FA and see if anyone would overpay for him or get the financial security locked in now.

That's a good comp—and right around the ~$18m AAV I was envisioning. Maybe 6/$110 with a $20m option at the end.

[striker42]

Good for Riley. Sucks his bat is too slow to ever be successful.

[clvclv]

That's a good comp—and right around the ~$18m AAV I was envisioning. Maybe 6/$110 with a $20m option at the end.

With Alex' preference to avoid long-term deals for Pitchers, I'd expect it would have to look more like the Musgrove deal.

[Carp]

I was ok with letting Riley play out his arb years and letting him walk. But this is pretty sweet.

[Nerfherders]

Besides that, the contract is extremely tradable if for some reason the Braves need to part ways.

But, I love Riley and happy we got this done!

[clvclv]

Bowman tweeted the Braves believe they could be a Top 5 payroll team soon.

Hello Fried AND Dansby extensions.

Time to get Grissom an outfielder's glove.

[Enscheff]

The Atlanta #Braves have signed 3B Austin Riley to a 10-year contract worth $212 million. Holy cow!

Interesting timing.


A Riley extension starts with about $45M to buy out his 3 remaining arb years, and then as many $25M seasons as he wants to give up.

I imagine it’s either 3/45 with a single option year at $25M, or some massive contract through the most of his 30s like 9/200. A deal like this ties up 1B and DH with Olson and Riley until the next rebuild.

It has me excitedly nervous. The Braves have his entire prime, and only a small portion of his probable decline. Potentially an excellent deal, assuming Riley isn't Dan Uggla.

[chop2chip]

Bowman tweeted the Braves believe they could be a Top 5 payroll team soon.

Hello Fried AND Dansby extensions.

Time to get Grissom an outfielder's glove.

I saw that tweet. It’s unreal how differently this team operates since we broke up the 2013 core. Corporate ownership isn’t too bad when you are raking in money hand over fist.

[Heyward]

Bowman tweeted the Braves believe they could be a Top 5 payroll team soon.

Hello Fried AND Dansby extensions.

Time to get Grissom an outfielder's glove.

Fried or sign Correa/Turner.

[Carp]

Bowman tweeted the Braves believe they could be a Top 5 payroll team soon.

Hello Fried AND Dansby extensions.

Time to get Grissom an outfielder's glove.

Rather let Bae walk. Get an extra pick in the process. I don't trust her can repeat this year, and I don't want to pay pre-2022 Dansby 15+ million for 7 years or more.

[Heyward]

Bowman tweeted the Braves believe they could be a Top 5 payroll team soon.

Hello Fried AND Dansby extensions.

Time to get Grissom an outfielder's glove.

With possibly Morton and Will Smith off the books, it'll be interesting what AA does this winter. He'll have the funds supposedly to operate.

[Nerfherders]

I'm curious how the whole Braves complex works out financially for them - The outdoor walk, the hotel, etc. Are they still paying the construction off. or are they already reaping profits from those assets?

[bravesfanforlife88]

Fried or sign Correa/Turner.

Honestly looks more realistic than previously thought.

Keep in mind that Swanson, Smith, and Jansens contracts will be off the books. They were saying on the radio, Braves have around $125m committed to next season. Haven’t looked at the numbers yet, but you’d have to imagine the Braves payroll getting another bump with all the sell outs this season

[Heyward]

Rather let Bae walk. Get an extra pick in the process. I don't trust her can repeat this year, and I don't want to pay pre-2022 Dansby 15+ million for 7 years or more.

Who you replacing him with? You'd have to sign a legit SS or be sold on Grissom. And aside from Judge, the OF market is ****.

[Dunit24]

Interesting timing.



It has me excitedly nervous.

Same here. As much as I love seeing our core guys locked up for so long, long term deals are always so risky.

Saying that, having Acuna, Albies, Olson, Riley, Harris, Contreras locked up for years to come is so darn exciting.

[jpx7]

Rather let Bae walk. Get an extra pick in the process. I don't trust her can repeat this year, and I don't want to pay pre-2022 Dansby 15+ million for 7 years or more.

Even though I'm in favor of an eventual International Player Draft, it was actually a nice benefit to the Braves that it wasn't agreed upon this season, since the QO system remains in place and the Braves can net another comp pick if Bae walks.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Anthopoulos try to trade for another Competitive Balance pick next year, if that happens, and take another spin at dramatically restocking the system with an enlarged bonus pool.

[chop2chip]

Top 5 payroll is basically Philadelphia / San Diego territory which right at the luxury tax threshold

[VirginiaBrave]

Yeah, I would get Max done next, then redo Ozzie, then Dansby. But something tells me Dans has LA as a fallback depending on what they do with Turner and whether the Braves are serious about keeping Swanson.

[Enscheff]

Bowman tweeted the Braves believe they could be a Top 5 payroll team soon.

Hello Fried AND Dansby extensions.

Time to get Grissom an outfielder's glove.

The Braves payroll ranking has long been tied almost directly to their attendance ranking. They are currently 4th in attendance, so I'm totally buying the idea they could be a team that bumps into the luxury tax threshold.

It will be odd having to consider luxury tax levels when we rosterbate...

[Heyward]

Honestly looks more realistic than previously thought.

Keep in mind that Swanson, Smith, and Jansens contracts will be off the books. They were saying on the radio, Braves have around $125m committed to next season. Haven’t looked at the numbers yet, but you’d have to imagine the Braves payroll getting another bump with all the sell outs this season

142 per spotrac, decline Morton/Smith's option, you're at 109. Fried, Minter, Soroka, Matzek only arb-eligible players. So a slight bump to 130ish and you'd have a decent amount to play with mostly needing BP depth, a SS, an OF'er, and a SP. Fried's probably the only one who would make that much of those players.

[Enscheff]

Same here. As much as I love seeing our core guys locked up for so long, long term deals are always so risky.

Saying that, having Acuna, Albies, Olson, Riley, Harris, Contreras locked up for years to come is so darn exciting.

It's only exciting if they don't decline. Locking up a core to huge money and then having them lose productivity is exactly how contention windows slam shut.

[chop2chip]

The Braves payroll ranking has long been tied almost directly to their attendance ranking. They are currently 4th in attendance, so I'm totally buying the idea they could be a team that bumps into the luxury tax threshold.

It will be odd having to consider luxury tax levels when we rosterbate...

Braves TV deal is set to expire in 2027 which could be a huge source of incremental revenue.


The Braves currently receive slightly more than $80 million per year from Sinclair Broadcast Group’s Bally Sports for local TV rights, but that will surpass $100 million in 2023 and approach $120 million in 2027, the final season of the Braves’ 20-year TV contract.

[CrimsonCowboy]

So Acuna, Albies, Olson, and Riley all signed through their prime years. I can live with that.

[Enscheff]

Braves TV deal is set to expire in 2027 which could be a huge source of incremental revenue.

Adding a Fried extension now makes a little more sense. All these locked in contracts have already made the Braves future very volatile since they are locked in to expensive deals in almost all spots on the roster, with SS likely to be expensive very soon as well. Either the bulk of these guys age gracefully, or there will be so much dead money on the books they will have to blow it up anyways.

So if those are the options adding another long term deal won't really change much....there's already almost zero flexibility in the future payroll to deal with injury/decline as is. We will see AA struggling to patch up the holes on the roster with little payroll room as this expensive core ages but still costs a lot. This is a very typical competitive cycle set in motion now.

[Heyward]

Adding a Fried extension now makes a little more sense. All these locked in contracts have already made the Braves future very volatile since they are locked in to expensive deals in almost all spots on the roster, with SS likely to be expensive very soon as well. Either the bulk of these guys age gracefully, or there will be so much dead money on the books they will have to blow it up anyways. So if those are the options adding another long term deal won't really change much....there's already almost zero flexibility in the future payroll to deal with injury/decline as is.

What's your guess on what a Fried extension would look like? 5/100? 5/110-120? Probably wouldnt want to go past his age 34 season. With all these long-term deals, we probably have no choice but to pay Max if he'd accept and sign a big-time SS whether it's Dansby or someone else. Already all-in as it is.

[Enscheff]

What's your guess on what a Fried extension would look like? 5/100? 5/110-120? Probably wouldnt want to go past his age 34 season. With all these long-term deals, we probably have no choice but to pay Max if he'd accept and sign a big-time SS whether it's Dansby or someone else. Already all-in as it is.

A Fried extension starts with about $25M to cover his 2 remaining arb years. Musgrove just got 5/100, and Fried is better, so tack something like 5/125 on top of the 2/25 to get something like 7/150.

I mean, at this point, why not? The whole core is going to be aging and expensive soon, so if the whole franchise now rides on how well the core ages they may as well extend it even more. If they have to blow things up 5 years from now due to zero payroll flexibility it won't matter if Fried is being paid $25M to be a 1 win guy.

[chop2chip]

What's your guess on what a Fried extension would look like? 5/100? 5/110-120? Probably wouldnt want to go past his age 34 season. With all these long-term deals, we probably have no choice but to pay Max if he'd accept and sign a big-time SS whether it's Dansby or someone else. Already all-in as it is.
Musgrove would have become a FA the same year Fried would. I like Fried more than Musgrove but they are probably within the same band. So if Musgrove got 5/100, Fried should get 5/110? If the Braves bought out his last two arbitration years, that’s probably ~7/125.

[Carp]

Who you replacing him with? You'd have to sign a legit SS or be sold on Grissom. And aside from Judge, the OF market is ****.

Ideally, Correa or Turner. Maybe Bogaerts depending on the length. If not, I'm fine Iglesias for a year or so until we know if Grissom is the real deal.

Regardless, Bae has barely been a ~2 win annual player over his career. We should not be gambling that his 2022 season is legit.

[Heyward]

Ideally, Correa or Turner. Maybe Bogaerts depending on the length. If not, I'm fine Iglesias for a year or so until we know if Grissom is the real deal.

Regardless, Bae has barely been a ~2 win annual player over his career. We should not be gambling that his 2022 season is legit.

Our roster is already expensive as hell as it is, we probably have no choice but to pay Dansby or a top tier SS. Dont need to be going cheap at SS. Dansby deal depends on the years, 5/100 would be okay, i dont know if he'd take that though. But you are right, it is hard to say if this is Dansby or he's just hitting out of his ass right now. I'd love Correa or Turner, they'd cost way more than Dansby will though.

[Russ2dollas]

I’m not going to defend albies and acuna deals totally but they are different. Both of. Those deals were designed to get the guy guaranteed money and money upfront and still have them hit free agency before 30. Albies hitting has not been consistent.

The Olson and Riley deals have the teams locking them up for all of their desirable years unless they are in the 1 percent of players.

[Heyward]

Musgrove would have become a FA the same year Fried would. I like Fried more than Musgrove but they are probably within the same band. So if Musgrove got 5/100, Fried should get 5/110? If the Braves bought out his last two arbitration years, that’s probably ~7/125.

Not true with Musgrove, this is the last year of his control. Something around 6/120 would be alright.

[Russ2dollas]

Deal for Riley makes so much sense and it’s why it’s tough on the union to max payroll.

Riley could get more money but really what changes in his life if he gets 300 million versus 200 million? Meanwhile if he’s hurt or sucks he could only make 25 million in his career.

He seems like the hunting fishing family man type that wants to be on the team. And now he has 200 million coming to him. Below market deal I’m sure union hates but makes a ton of sense for the individual.

[TURBO]

I want Freeman to like the tweet so bad ha

[jpx7]

Deal for Riley makes so much sense and it’s why it’s tough on the union to max payroll.

Riley could get more money but really what changes in his life if he gets 300 million versus 200 million? Meanwhile if he’s hurt or sucks he could only make 25 million in his career.

He seems like the hunting fishing family man type that wants to be on the team. And now he has 200 million coming to him. Below market deal I’m sure union hates but makes a ton of sense for the individual.


Ultimately the MLBPA, or any union, exists and functions to serve its constituents. I'm very pro-labor, and absolutely in favor of as much money as possible going to the players; but the union should nevertheless not operate with goals and desires contrary to its membership. And, for every Riley, there are plenty of players chasing top dollars, irrespective of other concerns; so I think the MLBPA is probably fine with deals like these, which aren't wildly under-market and keep its constituents happy.

The Albies deal—different context notwithstanding—is one they probably didn't love to see. But it's so aberrant it doesn't really have any bearing on the market, so it's probably not worth them worrying about, as long as Albies doesn't feel materially slighted.

[chop2chip]

Not true with Musgrove, this is the last year of his control. Something around 6/120 would be alright.

To clarify I meant both become free agents at age 30

[NYCBrave]

I see comments in here about reworking Albies deal. How exactly would that be reworked??

[UNCBlue012]

I’m honestly just happy I’ll very likely get the chance to watch competitive Braves baseball for the next 5 to 7 years.

[chop2chip]

I’m honestly just happy I’ll very likely get the chance to watch competitive Braves baseball for the next 5 to 7 years.
I can quibble with some individual moves from the AA era, but he has hit so many massive homeruns on the biggest moves of his tenure. Braves, with this payroll flexibility, are in an excellent condition to blow open an extended competitive window.

[jpx7]

From Fangraphs:


That Atlanta would agree to this deal after very team-friendly contracts to Ronald Acuña Jr. (eight years, $100 million) and especially Ozzie Albies (seven years, $35 million) demonstrates how much Riley means to the franchise. In terms of rest-of-career WAR, ZiPS now ranks him as the top third baseman in baseball, his recent offensive outburst being just enough to force José Ramírez out of the top spot.

Not bad.

[bravesfanforlife88]

I can quibble with some individual moves from the AA era, but he has hit so many massive homeruns on the biggest moves of his tenure. Braves, with this payroll flexibility, are in an excellent condition to blow open an extended competitive window.

And if we get into top 5 payroll territory…watch out we have an incredible core that AA can go add to this off-season.

[goldfly]

we have 72.025 coming off the books after this season too

[Runnin]

He is taking some risk given he'd probably get more in free agency but cant fault a guy for taking guaranteed money while it's in front of you. He can just play ball for the rest of his career knowing he's signed for the rest of his career.

A risk would be moving away from a team he loves to play for and a place he likes living in for more money to a new, unknown situation and a higher cost of living.

[OcalaBrave]

I don't see Riley playing 3b all 10 years. Am I alone in that belief? The stick plays in LF or DH so the length isn't problematic necessarily. Still, worth keeping in mind for the 5 year plan.

[Enscheff]

I don't see Riley playing 3b all 10 years. Am I alone in that belief? The stick plays in LF or DH so the length isn't problematic necessarily. Still, worth keeping in mind for the 5 year plan.

I figured he was destined for 1B, but now with Olson those 2 probably have 1B/DH locked down for the foreseeable future...maybe as soon as Ozuna is gone and Grissom is ready to step in at 3B.

[cajunrevenge]

I am shocked Riley has been this good over the last 2 years. Had him pegged as a .260-.270 hitter. I would still be still shocked if he keeps this up. With the way contracts are going he would still be around market value even if he regresses significantly. So that makes this a very good deal at the time regardless of what happens in the future.



The one thing I always liked about Riley is he got much better his second time through a league. That tells me a lot about a prospect. I remember being pretty low on Andy Marte compared to everyone else and it was for the same reason only reversed. Marte did pretty good for his age but he never dominated a level or got significantly better the second time around. I know people like to mock any scouting that isnt citing the latest greatest stat that was invented a week ago, but I think this is a good sign to look for with prospects.

[cajunrevenge]

I see comments in here about reworking Albies deal. How exactly would that be reworked??


Overpay for more years on the contract but add some of the money to earlier in the contract. For example, a 2 year 80 million extension that adds 2 years into the existing contract for 20 million each year and add the remaining 40 million to the existing contract. This kind of makes it a win win situation. We get more years of team control but the contract is a little less team friendly.

[cajunrevenge]

I don't see Riley playing 3b all 10 years. Am I alone in that belief? The stick plays in LF or DH so the length isn't problematic necessarily. Still, worth keeping in mind for the 5 year plan.


The DH is probably why they felt comfortable giving him a 10 year deal in the first place. Otherwise I doubt they go over 8 years.

[NYCBrave]

Overpay for more years on the contract but add some of the money to earlier in the contract. For example, a 2 year 80 million extension that adds 2 years into the existing contract for 20 million each year and add the remaining 40 million to the existing contract. This kind of makes it a win win situation. We get more years of team control but the contract is a little less team friendly.

Has something like that actually ever happened before??

[bravesfanMatt]

this is very unexpected and a great contract at the same time. I know 10 year deals are freaking scary.. one injury and we are stuck with a 22 million hole in our budget.. But to get that potential production for onlyy 22 million is HUGE..

[OcalaBrave]

this is very unexpected and a great contract at the same time. I know 10 year deals are freaking scary.. one injury and we are stuck with a 22 million hole in our budget.. But to get that potential production for only 22 million is HUGE..

There is insurance for injury. The scary part of a 10 year deal is trying to project when the skills will start to diminish. For some players guaranteed money means less incentive to bust your hump to be the best player you can be. The message from this contract is the front office just gave a huge vote of confidence in the work ethic of Riley. They are convinced this kind of security won't go to his head and make him complacent. They are convinced he is the kind of leader you want on this team for the next 10 years. That is a HUGE statement about his makeup.

[bravesfanMatt]

When is our TV deal up.. a new deal along with the Battery revenue should allow the Braves to be a top tier payroll team every year...

ugh.. why is thethe in my head typing for me..

[The Chosen One]

There is insurance for injury. The scary part of a 10 year deal is trying to project when the skills will start to diminish. For some players guaranteed money means less incentive to bust your hump to be the best player you can be. The message from this contract is the front office just gave a huge vote of confidence in the work ethic of Riley. They are convinced this kind of security won't go to his head and make him complacent. They are convinced he is the kind of leader you want on this team for the next 10 years. That is a HUGE statement about his makeup.

you can’t deny how he went from having the worst contact rate in baseball to an elite offensive machine. The work he out in I’m sure was noticed by the FO and organization.

[bravesfanMatt]

you can’t deny how he went from having the worst contact rate in baseball to an elite offensive machine. The work he out in I’m sure was noticed by the FO and organization.

probably FF too. I am sure FF told AA that Riley want to be a Brave for lif.... oh wait..

[chop2chip]

When is our TV deal up.. a new deal along with the Battery revenue should allow the Braves to be a top tier payroll team every year...

ugh.. why is thethe in my head typing for me..

2027


The Braves currently receive slightly more than $80 million per year from Sinclair Broadcast Group’s Bally Sports for local TV rights, but that will surpass $100 million in 2023 and approach $120 million in 2027, the final season of the Braves’ 20-year TV contract.

[thethe]

When is our TV deal up.. a new deal along with the Battery revenue should allow the Braves to be a top tier payroll team every year...

ugh.. why is thethe in my head typing for me..

Eventually they all realize that I am on the right track!