Braves Sign Teheran to 6 year extension

[lwj10jr]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 4s
Source: #Braves’ six-year deal with Teheran worth $32.4M.

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS 13m
Teheran option for 2020 is for $12M with $1M buyout. #braves

[Hawk]

6 years, plus option from Dimino

[Hawk]

The Braves announced that they have extended standout right-hander Julio Teheran to a six-year extension that runs through the 2019 season and contains an option for the 2020 campaign. Teheran is a client of Relativity Baseball.

MLBTR.

[The Chosen One]

Wow. Way too early IMO for this.

We don't know how he's going to develop yet.

I would've offered Minor a deal before Teheran. Shoot even Medlen.

[MadduxFanII]

So, that takes him through arbitration, one free agent year and an option for another free agent year, right?

[Hawk]

So, that takes him through arbitration, one free agent year and an option for another free agent year, right?

Bowman says two FA years, option potentially for the third.

Edit: That appears incorrect, though.

[Hawk]

Wow. Way too early IMO for this.

We don't know how he's going to develop yet.

I would've offered Minor a deal before Teheran. Shoot even Medlen.

I agree. The dollars will have to be extremely reasonable for me to like this.

[mfree80]

Wow. Way too early IMO for this.

We don't know how he's going to develop yet.

I would've offered Minor a deal before Teheran. Shoot even Medlen.

The Braves are showing the fans and baseball world that they are serious about keeping their young core and plan to have a solid young team when they move to the new stadium.

Love to see it!!!!

[MadduxFanII]

Bowman says two FA years, option potentially for the third.

Thanks. I was wondering about his service time status.

This is a risk, no doubt. But it's the kind teams in our position need to take.

[Hawk]

@ajcbraves: #Braves Teheran is 2nd (after Freeman) of series of "core" players that Wren said team would like to sign long-term in next year or two.
[ http://twitter.com/ajcbraves/status/434351628377149440 ]

@ajcbraves: Wren wouldn't how many #Braves that is, but safe to say Simmons is one of them. Again, wouldn't give a number or say when would do next.
[ http://twitter.com/ajcbraves/status/434351837790355456 ]

@ajcbraves: #Braves Teheran gets 6-yr contract plus 1-yr club option. He still 2 yrs from arb, so this buys out all arb years plus 1 or 2 option yrs.
[ http://twitter.com/ajcbraves/status/434353060832620544 ]

[The Chosen One]

The Braves are showing the fans and baseball world that they are serious about keeping their young core and plan to have a solid young team when they move to the new stadium.

Love to see it!!!!

Our new stadium would be packed regardless just because it's a new stadium and pretty much every team has had excellent attendance in a new stadium year except Miami.

I would've locked up the position players before pitchers. Freeman, Heyward, Simmons and maybe Justin would've been priority.

[Hudson2]

I love it. It gives us certainty of what our payroll will be. But it has to be a low contract

[Hawk]

MadduxFanII

Bowman's correction: @mlbbowman: If Teheran's option year is exercised, this deal would run through his first two FA years. #Braves
[ http://twitter.com/mlbbowman/status/434353684168708096 ]

[MadduxFanII]

A-ha! I was right! That's even better than knowing the answer.

[Hawk]

@Ken_Rosenthal: Source: #Braves’ six-year deal with Teheran worth $32.4M.
[ http://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/434354618181902336 ]

[jcc03004]

Is the option player club or mutual

[Hawk]

Is the option player club or mutual

Club.

[BRule]

Weird.....

[zitothebrave]

Risky signing because he's a pitcher. But I think we'll save big like we did with Mac

[Hawk]

@JonHeymanCBS: Teheran option for 2020 is for $12M with $1M buyout. #braves
[ http://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/434358065085685761 ]

[Tapate50]

Paid off big time being patient with Julio, maybe it will pay even more on this deal.

[MadduxFanII]

If the option year is just $12 million, then I assume the years before that will be cheaper, including the first FA season. If so, then I'm on-board. This is basically the Braves betting on their evaluation of Teheran, and the organization has earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to evaluating pitching.

[thethe]

This was a perfect move. I know there is unpredictability with pitchers but I have believe Teheran would be a stud since he was signed. When comparisons like Pedro are thrown around at that age it catches your eye.

[thethe]

I also think it shows that Wren is doing everything he can to keep this core together.

Now lets get a deal done for Simmons/Minor/Medlen/Heyward/Upton.

[jcc03004]

Club.

THATS AWESOME! if hes not worth the 12m at that point we can decline the option. I dont see that happening though. Kind of wish Minor would also be extended. If you were to extend Minor what numbers are we talking about.

[NYCBrave]

These are the types of gambles you've gotta make when it comes to the payroll situation like ours. I like it.

[zitothebrave]

Minor is further along so he would need more money. For a 6 year deal it would probably be 6/40-45 at least

[nsacpi]

I also think it shows that Wren is doing everything he can to keep this core together.

Now lets get a deal done for Simmons/Minor/Medlen/Heyward/Upton.

From the info available I'm guessing the numbers look like this:

2014: 500K
2015: 600K
2016: 4M
2017: 6M
2018: 9M
2019: 11M
2020: 12M option with 1M buyout

Probably a small bonus up front.

It is a good contract if he is a 2 WAR/year player or better. Pretty likely given he was a 2.4 WAR player last year.

I've always felt the priority should be on Heyward, Freeman, Simmons rather than the pitchers. But this contract is pretty modest and should not preclude signing Heyward and Simmons later.

There is some downside risk since any pitcher can regress or get hurt. But it is a reasonable risk to take given the upside. If Teheran develops it could be a Chris Sale type contract situation.

[Hudson2]

I bet we see a Simmons extension soon. Hopefully Minor and Upton would be next. Jason is gonna wait it out.

[nsacpi]

I bet we see a Simmons extension soon. Hopefully Minor and Upton would be next. Jason is gonna wait it out.

It is easier to get an extension done on club friendly terms with guys like Teheran and Simmons who are not even in their arb years. Minor, Medlen and Upton will be more costly, significantly more costly. Makes me think they are much less likely to get extensions. I see Upton and Heyward as either or. We're not likely to hold on to both long term.

[KB21]

I bet we see a Simmons extension soon. Hopefully Minor and Upton would be next. Jason is gonna wait it out.

I've heard that there have been discussions with Simmons on a long term deal, but I cannot verify that. I've got a feeling he will be next up though.

[The Chosen One]

From the info available I'm guessing the numbers look like this:

2014: 500K
2015: 600K
2016: 4M
2017: 6M
2018: 9M
2019: 11M
2020: 12M option with 1M buyout

Probably a small bonus up front.

It is a good contract if he is a 2 WAR/year player or better. Pretty likely given he was a 2.4 WAR player last year.

I've always felt the priority should be on Heyward, Freeman, Simmons rather than the pitchers. But this contract is pretty modest and should not preclude signing Heyward and Simmons later.

There is some downside risk since any pitcher can regress or get hurt. But it is a reasonable risk to take given the upside. If Teheran develops it could be a Chris Sale type contract situation.

My worry is he might have TJ surgery one of those years.

Remember they tried to change his mechanics to preserve him long term but they reverted back to his old mechanics.

[Enscheff]

This is the EXACT kind of contract a team with a middle of the pack payroll must make with young talent. The only way to get FA years for cheap is to guarantee the arb years for the player. The player gives up some potential FA money for financial security. If Julio turns into anything resembling an ace, this is the only way the Braves could keep him around past his 6 years of team control. This was a risk they had to take if they want to extend the competitive window.

Guys like Medlen and Minor did not prove their floor was a solid starting pitcher until much later in their careers, so extending them when they are already in arb will be nearly impossible. There is an outside shot for a Minor extension though I imagine.

Extending Simmons should be the top priority now.

[nsacpi]

One side effect of retaining Teheran for a year or two into his free agency years is it reduces the demands on the farm to produce a new starter every year. It makes it easier for the team to trade someone like Cabrera or Hursh if there are needs to be filled.

[Knucksie]

If he reaches that ace potential that's been projected, and he stays healthy, then it's a bargain. "Get 'em while they're young."

[nsacpi]

My worry is he might have TJ surgery one of those years.

Remember they tried to change his mechanics to preserve him long term but they reverted back to his old mechanics.

Lets say he misses a full season somewhere in that period. The loss to the team is 2 WAR. So he would have to average 2.5 WAR in the other four years to make up the loss. There is some cushion built in here so it could still be a decent contract if he misses a full season. Still some risk of course. He could turn into a replacement level pumpkin. Stuff like that happens.

[thethe]

I bet we see a Simmons extension soon. Hopefully Minor and Upton would be next. Jason is gonna wait it out.

We can only hope.

[gilesfan]

Nice signing. I think it's cleart the guys the team is going after is Freeman, Teheran, Simmons. There is only so much money to go around. I think locking up Simmons and Minor next would be prudent.

Its time to float Heywards name out there and gauge the interest.

[Hawk]

Its time to float Heywards name out there and gauge the interest.

Haha.

[nsacpi]

Its time to float Heywards name out there and gauge the interest.

Would create a hole in the outfield with no obvious replacement. Pretty big dropoff to Doumit and Terdoslavich. A free agent like Nelson Cruz would be inferior and more expensive.

[thethe]

At this point I think you have to keep Heyward. Hopefully the Braves continue to increase profits along with MLB and then can offer a big deal to Jason.

[gilesfan]

Would create a hole in the outfield with no obvious replacement. Pretty big dropoff to Doumit and Terdoslavich.

Obvious, any trade made would require a significant piece in return since Heyward has 2 years remaining. Ideally, maybe a guy that is young and cost controlled OFer as well as a couple prospects.

Its pretty clear that he is looking at FA in 2016.

[nsacpi]

At this point I think you have to keep Heyward. Hopefully the Braves continue to increase profits along with MLB and then can offer a big deal to Jason.

I think we'll keep one of Jason or Justin, but not both. But I don't see either being moved this season.

[nsacpi]

Obvious, any trade made would require a significant piece in return since Heyward has 2 years remaining. Ideally, maybe a guy that is young and cost controlled OFer as well as a couple prospects.

Its pretty clear that he is looking at FA in 2016.

I wouldn't be surprised to see both Jason and Justin go to free agency. We would bid on keeping one of them. After 2015, those two plus Medlen and Uggla are scheduled to hit free agency, so we'll have some money to spend.

[AUTiger7222]

Love that the Braves are keeping the young guys!

[Hawk]

Its pretty clear that he is looking at FA in 2016.

I need to know ... what is 'pretty clear' about Heyward's free agency?

[thethe]

Obvious, any trade made would require a significant piece in return since Heyward has 2 years remaining. Ideally, maybe a guy that is young and cost controlled OFer as well as a couple prospects.

Its pretty clear that he is looking at FA in 2016.

I think the fact that his good buddy is here for 8 more years might change his mind a bit and of course as long as the Braves pony up some dough.

[jsebe10]

This was a perfect move. I know there is unpredictability with pitchers but I have believe Teheran would be a stud since he was signed. When comparisons like Pedro are thrown around at that age it catches your eye.

Agreed.

Wren has protected this kid from trades since the day we drafted him. He is really special and I like the $$$ figures they signed him for. Not a lot that could hurt us until the later years of this deal if things don't pan out.

Let's get Simba and Minor signed up.

[Gary82]

Is this a John Hart influence?

I'm happy.

[cajunrevenge]

My worry is he might have TJ surgery one of those years.

Remember they tried to change his mechanics to preserve him long term but they reverted back to his old mechanics.

Odds are he will have TJ surgery but by the time Teheran is making serious money both BJ and Uggla will be gone. Having just 9-11 million in dead weight in one year doesnt seem so bad when we currently have 30 million of dead weight on the payroll.

[Knucksie]

Is this a John Hart influence?

I'm happy.

That point was brought up on MLB Network, too, after the Freeman extension.

[clvclv]

Damn you Frank Wren...another one of those ****ty offseasons where you haven't accomplished a thing...you should be fired.

Haven't I heard that somewhere around here???

[Dalyn]

A little early, especially after Teheran's first real stressful (arm) season. Hope it works out well.

[gilesfan]

I need to know ... what is 'pretty clear' about Heyward's free agency?

That the Braves have worked on an extension for some time now and the only thing that could be agreed upon is that they would buy out arby years. That fact that other guys that are further behind him have signed extensions.

[clvclv]

Wren said the Teheran contract was done a week ago but that they had to wait for Teheran to get to the United States and pass his physical. He also said the Braves had “identified” other young players as core guys they hope to sign to long-term contracts. Wren wouldn’t name the others, but suffice to say that shortstop Andrelton Simmons is likely at the top of the list.

Key word - "others".

[Heyward]

Good move.

[Heyward]

Nice signing. I think it's cleart the guys the team is going after is Freeman, Teheran, Simmons. There is only so much money to go around. I think locking up Simmons and Minor next would be prudent.

Its time to float Heywards name out there and gauge the interest.

Not yet, wait after next season.

If he still wont sign an extension, shop him.

[Heyward]

So with the option it's a 7-year deal for 44 million.

Thats pretty good.

And yeah, Minor would of been much more expensive.

I would guess they try to extend Simmons next.

Heyward is probably the hardest to sign given he's closer to FA of the others.

[Heyward]

Is this a John Hart influence?

I'm happy.

This was brought up on MLBN and MLBTR.

I think so.

They've done the same with Texas and Cle when he was there.

[Deester11]

Wow. Way too early IMO for this.

We don't know how he's going to develop yet.

I would've offered Minor a deal before Teheran. Shoot even Medlen.

Disagree that it's too early. I think he'll prove much more of a bargain over the long haul while buying out two years of his FA. This can't be viewed negatively. Or can it?

[Heyward]

Disagree that it's too early. I think he'll prove much more of a bargain over the long haul while buying out two years of his FA. This can't be viewed negatively. Or can it?

Isnt it 3 FA years with the option?

Even still, i agree its not too early.

[NinersSBChamps]

If JT proves to be what many people think, this contract is a steal. The team is counting on him to emerge as one of the games best young starters and all signs point to just that. He'll be paid roughly 5 million a season on average. Imagine if he turns the corner and develops into our ace. Kudos to Frank on this one. I actually love the extension.

How often does this happen when I am thrilled?

[clvclv]

Disagree that it's too early. I think he'll prove much more of a bargain over the long haul while buying out two years of his FA. This can't be viewed negatively. Or can it?

By some people around here? Surely you know better than to ask that!!!

:facepalm::facepalm::facepalm::facepalm::facepalm:

[jpx7]

Wren has protected this kid from trades since the day we drafted him. He is really special and I like the $$$ figures they signed him for. Not a lot that could hurt us until the later years of this deal if things don't pan out.

Well, technically Teheran was signed as an international free-agent, not drafted, but yes: he's really been handled gingerly by the organization, and this seems to be the culmination of that.

[Heyward]

If JT proves to be what many people think, this contract is a steal. The team is counting on him to emerge as one of the games best young starters and all signs point to just that. He'll be paid roughly 5 million a season on average. Imagine if he turns the corner and develops into our ace. Kudos to Frank on this one. I actually love the extension.

How often does this happen when I am thrilled?

Never.

[The Chosen One]

Disagree that it's too early. I think he'll prove much more of a bargain over the long haul while buying out two years of his FA. This can't be viewed negatively. Or can it?

Just because he's a pitcher. As a mid market team I'm nervous of giving contract like this to a pitcher

[Dalyn]

Disagree that it's too early. I think he'll prove much more of a bargain over the long haul while buying out two years of his FA. This can't be viewed negatively. Or can it?

It isn't about it being a negative overall. It is just risky. The guy is coming off a stressful year. Several of us worry that he won't make it through the year (let alone six or seven) without having arm trouble. There is nothing wrong with stepping back and taking a critical look at the team's deals and needs. Being a fan isn't always about being imperceptive.

[Dalyn]

Think about giving this deal to Beachy after 2011 (and you will understand where we are coming from).

[cajunrevenge]

Just because he's a pitcher. As a mid market team I'm nervous of giving contract like this to a pitcher

Its 35 million for 6 years. This isn't the kind of deal that kills the team. He could never throw anotger pitch and it wouldn't be as bad as 2 contracts we have now.

[Heyward]

Just because he's a pitcher. As a mid market team I'm nervous of giving contract like this to a pitcher

It's about 6-7 per year, not a massive long-term commitment.

I dont disagree honestly but its a risk to take.

[Dalyn]

Its 35 million for 6 years. This isn't the kind of deal that kills the team. He could never throw anotger pitch and it wouldn't be as bad as 2 contracts we have now.

That's certainly true and all, but it would still be a bad deal. You can't move on from bad deals with the mindset that it doesn't matter what happens because nothing could be as bad as the mistake made with Uggla.

[The Chosen One]

Its 35 million for 6 years. This isn't the kind of deal that kills the team. He could never throw anotger pitch and it wouldn't be as bad as 2 contracts we have now.

It's not the same. At least with Ugg amd BJ you know there's a chance of getting back. Teheran could get injured more likely than either bj or dan

[clvclv]

Just because he's a pitcher. As a mid market team I'm nervous of giving contract like this to a pitcher

Given how much the arbitration landscape is likely to change in the next few years with the huge amounts of revenues pouring into the game, I honestly can't see how anyone can consider this anything other than possibly the best move Wren's made yet. Teheran's deal is for less money than the Giants gave Madison Bumgarner. If the option is picked up the deal is for roughly $6.35 million per AAV. Medlen makes $5.8 million this year and his number will climb. Jason Hammel's getting $6 million this year. Jason Vargas is getting $7 million.

Joe Blanton - $7.5 million
Kyle Kendrick $7.675 million
Jaime Garcia - $7.875 million
Trevor Cahill - $7.9 million
Josh Johnson, Brett Anderson, Phil Hughes, and Jeremy Guthrie - $8 million
Rick Porcello - $8.5 million
Scott Kazmir - 9 million

As for his option year...

Scott Feldman, Chad Billingsley, and Ricky Nolasco are all making $12 million this year.

Does anyone honestly not think Julio will outperform every one of those Pitchers? If not, something catastrophic has to happen to keep him from doing so.

[Deester11]

By some people around here? Surely you know better than to ask that!!!

:facepalm::facepalm::facepalm::facepalm::facepalm:
FUNNY. Sad, but funny......and true.

[NinersSBChamps]

It isn't about it being a negative overall. It is just risky. The guy is coming off a stressful year. Several of us worry that he won't make it through the year (let alone six or seven) without having arm trouble. There is nothing wrong with stepping back and taking a critical look at the team's deals and needs. Being a fan isn't always about being imperceptive.

Honestly I hope they put some sort of cap on JT. Innings limit isn't as effective as a pitch limit for the season. I don't know what number, but something to try and ease him along is a good idea I think.

[Heyward]

Given how much the arbitration landscape is likely to change in the next few years with the huge amounts of revenues pouring into the game, I honestly can't see how anyone can consider this anything other than possibly the best move Wren's made yet. Teheran's deal is for less money than the Giants gave Madison Bumgarner. If the option is picked up the deal is for roughly $6.35 million per AAV. Medlen makes $5.8 million this year and his number will climb. Jason Hammel's getting $6 million this year. Jason Vargas is getting $7 million.

Joe Blanton - $7.5 million
Kyle Kendrick $7.675 million
Jaime Garcia - $7.875 million
Trevor Cahill - $7.9 million
Josh Johnson, Brett Anderson, Phil Hughes, and Jeremy Guthrie - $8 million
Rick Porcello - $8.5 million
Scott Kazmir - 9 million

As for his option year...

Scott Feldman, Chad Billingsley, and Ricky Nolasco are all making $12 million this year.

Does anyone honestly not think Julio will outperform every one of those Pitchers? If not, something catastrophic has to happen to keep him from doing so.

That and the top SP's in baseball make like 20+ mil a year.

Any longterm deal with pitchers is risky, there is no argument in that but its one to take if you are Frank Wren imo.

[Deester11]

Just because he's a pitcher. As a mid market team I'm nervous of giving contract like this to a pitcher

I hate long term contracts for pitchers. I look at it from another perspective however. The days of us going out and snagging another Greg Maddux is probably gone. Long gone. At least we lock up our young talent for a reasonable amount.

[Dalyn]

Honestly I hope they put some sort of cap on JT. Innings limit isn't as effective as a pitch limit for the season. I don't know what number, but something to try and ease him along is a good idea I think.

They should've held him back at the beginning of last year. That was a huge mistake that they scrambled to fix in September, and it exploded in their face in the playoffs.

[Heyward]

They should've held him back at the beginning of last year. That was a huge mistake that they scrambled to fix in September, and it exploded in their face in the playoffs.

:facepalm:

[The Chosen One]

Given how much the arbitration landscape is likely to change in the next few years with the huge amounts of revenues pouring into the game, I honestly can't see how anyone can consider this anything other than possibly the best move Wren's made yet. Teheran's deal is for less money than the Giants gave Madison Bumgarner. If the option is picked up the deal is for roughly $6.35 million per AAV. Medlen makes $5.8 million this year and his number will climb. Jason Hammel's getting $6 million this year. Jason Vargas is getting $7 million.

Joe Blanton - $7.5 million
Kyle Kendrick $7.675 million
Jaime Garcia - $7.875 million
Trevor Cahill - $7.9 million
Josh Johnson, Brett Anderson, Phil Hughes, and Jeremy Guthrie - $8 million
Rick Porcello - $8.5 million
Scott Kazmir - 9 million

As for his option year...

Scott Feldman, Chad Billingsley, and Ricky Nolasco are all making $12 million this year.

Does anyone honestly not think Julio will outperform every one of those Pitchers? If not, something catastrophic has to happen to keep him from doing so.
I get the arbitrary differences.

However we've done a better job at producing pitching than position players. The money should be prioritized on Heyward or Simmons. As a mid market team I would rather not give these extension this early. Especially after a year in which he was gassed and had a few of the Jorge Houdini outings.

[Dalyn]

:facepalm:

Just look at the numbers. It is CLEAR that Teheran had nothing left at the end of the year. The guy pitched way more stressful innings than ever in his career.

[clvclv]

FUNNY. Sad, but funny......and true.

It never fails to amaze me what folks around here will criticize. People scream over and over that Wren needs to operate entirely like he's Andrew Friedman. Then he goes out and does exactly that - locking up our versions of Evan Longoria and Matt Moore and they call it "risky".

Just for kicks, remember when people wanted us to start signing our young arms like Tampa??? Matt Moore's deal runs through 2019 if his options are picked up. Guess what his AAV will be if they are...

$4.625 million WITH INCENTIVES that could push it to about $5 million per.

The difference? They gave him that deal after a handful of starts.

SHEESH!!!

[Heyward]

I get the arbitrary differences.

However we've done a better job at producing pitching than position players. The money should be prioritized on Heyward or Simmons. As a mid market team I would rather not give these extension this early. Especially after a year in which he was gassed and had a few of the Jorge Houdini outings.

They were going to try to sign Heyward to a long-term deal.

But with his injuries, they backed off.

I would guess they try after this season, and see what happens depending what kind of year he has.

Simmons is most likely next to extend, i would venture.

Even still, given the INSANE market for SP's, we cant sign a FA SP for 20-30 mil a year.

So signing Julio at this rate even risky is something that had to be done.

[Heyward]

Just look at the numbers. It is CLEAR that Teheran had nothing left at the end of the year. The guy pitched way more stressful innings than ever in his career.

This is true but signing Julio to a deal like this is something a mid-market team, or not a top-5 payroll team had to do.

For christs sake, people in the offseason bitch and moan about Wren not signing our core to extensions, he does it and people cry like a baby over it?

It's not like this is a massive financial commitment.

[clvclv]

Another point to consider for the naysayers that have been so in love with Chris Sale's team-friendly contract...

If Julio follows the same kind of path as Sale and many other young studs, this may be the most valuable contract in the game by Opening Day 2015.

[ChapelHillMatt]

I love the message Wren is sending to everyone. He believes in this young core and he's not going to let them get away if he can help it. He's pretty much backing up what he's done in the past. He's made a lot of these guys untouchable and now he's trying to sign them to long term contracts.

[Heyward]

Another point to consider for the naysayers that have been so in love with Chris Sale's team-friendly contract...

If Julio follows the same kind of path as Sale and many other young studs, this may be the most valuable contract in the game by Opening Day 2015.

Matt Moore's deal is quite awesome too.

[Dalyn]

I love the message Wren is sending to everyone. He believes in this young core and he's not going to let them get away if he can help it. He's pretty much backing up what he's done in the past. He's made a lot of these guys untouchable and now he's trying to sign them to long term contracts.

That is DEFINITELY a plus. Baseball is very mental. Feeling like at least one person at the top of the team is on your side could really help.

[jcc03004]

Minor is further along so he would need more money. For a 6 year deal it would probably be 6/40-45 at least

I'd do that in a heartbeat

[The Chosen One]

The point is we've done a better job producing pitching than posit players so Teheran could be replaceable. Simmons very likely wouldn't be nor Heyward. Even with injuries Heyward has been our best outfielder since Andruw. Think of what we trotted before him. Francoeur, Kotsay, Bourn, Diaz platoons, McClouth, Gattis.

[Dalyn]

It never fails to amaze me what folks around here will criticize. People scream over and over that Wren needs to operate entirely like he's Andrew Friedman. Then he goes out and does exactly that - locking up our versions of Evan Longoria and Matt Moore and they call it "risky".

Just for kicks, remember when people wanted us to start signing our young arms like Tampa??? Matt Moore's deal runs through 2019 if his options are picked up. Guess what his AAV will be if they are...

$4.625 million WITH INCENTIVES that could push it to about $5 million per.

The difference? They gave him that deal after a handful of starts.

SHEESH!!!

IF his options are picked up. If the guy gets injured, the team is only on the hook for 5/13.5 (that includes the buyout). That is so much better than this deal that it isn't even worth bringing into the discussion. And Moore is still YET to pitch as many innings as Teheran did in his first full year.

[Heyward]

That is DEFINITELY a plus. Baseball is very mental. Feeling like at least one person at the top of the team is on your side could really help.

I think John Hart.

He did this with the Indians and Rangers.

[Heyward]

The point is we've done a better job producing pitching than posit players so Teheran could be replaceable. Simmons very likely wouldn't be nor Heyward. Even with injuries Heyward has been our best outfielder since Andruw. Think of what we trotted before him. Francoeur, Kotsay, Bourn, Diaz platoons, McClouth, Gattis.

No one will disagree with Heyward but he already rejected an extension after the 2012 season.

I doubt it was AS much as Freeman's, but it takes two to tango.

They actually tried to sign him to an extension during arby, but injuries and whatnot made it complicated. I think they'll try to extend him after the year but it will be very hard to do so.

While we do produce good pitchers, not a given they pan out.

[Hudson2]

This is positive and that's it. There's negative in anything you do in life. But Wren sending a message to his team that he wants to win and keep them all together is anything but negative. Yeah he could blow his arm out but Freddy could blow his knee out tomorrow. It's all a gamble. We all want to keep this team together and that's what Wren is doing. Good job here. Simmons deal could be already and their just waiting on his physical who knows.

[benchguy]

I'm sure there is insurance on him with will defray some or most of his cost..



A little early, especially after Teheran's first real stressful (arm) season. Hope it works out well.

[clvclv]

IF his options are picked up. If the guy gets injured, the team is only on the hook for 5/13.5 (that includes the buyout). That is so much better than this deal that it isn't even worth bringing into the discussion. And Moore is still YET to pitch as many innings as Teheran did in his first full year.

The point remains...small and mid-market teams have absolutely NO CHANCE of compiling enough players with the kind of upside that can be important pieces on Championship teams if you don't take calculated risks. If you take away the option, Teheran's AAV is $5.4 million. Given the mountain of cash that MLB has discovered since Moore's deal was signed, they're essentially the same contract - there's NO WAY they don't pick them up unless his arm falls off...everyone in an MLB rotation that isn't year-to-year (or more likely pre-arb eligible) in 2019-2020 will likely be approaching $10 million per AAV if not higher.

[Julio3000]

The point remains...small and mid-market teams have absolutely NO CHANCE of compiling enough players with the kind of upside that can be important pieces on Championship teams if you don't take calculated risks. If you take away the option, Teheran's AAV is $5.4 million. Given the mountain of cash that MLB has discovered since Moore's deal was signed, they're essentially the same contract - there's NO WAY they don't pick them up unless his arm falls off...everyone in an MLB rotation that isn't year-to-year (or more likely pre-arb eligible) in 2019-2020 will likely be approaching $10 million per AAV if not higher.

^^

[clvclv]

One more point for our more statistically-inclined members...

Rob Neyer says the deal is essentially a "no-lose proposition" from our standpoint. Says that even if Julio misses a year or year and a half with TJ surgery, it's still a solid value as long as Julio is "average".

[PawPawMaxwell]

That the Braves have worked on an extension for some time now and the only thing that could be agreed upon is that they would buy out arby years. That fact that other guys that are further behind him have signed extensions.

For one of the few times in memory, I agree with you on Heywards future in Atlanta.

[Heyward]

For one of the few times in memory, I agree with you on Heywards future in Atlanta.

I would of agreed but with Freeman signing long-term, i think it may increase the chances he stayed a little more now.

Would still bet he leaves/hits the market, 30/70 we keep him but it increased a little.

[PawPawMaxwell]

I'm sure there is insurance on him with will defray some or most of his cost..

Im pretty sure that the Braves are one of the self insured teams. IIRC that came out when Galaraga sat out the year.

[stpeteirish]

My worry is he might have TJ surgery one of those years.

Remember they tried to change his mechanics to preserve him long term but they reverted back to his old mechanics.

Deal seems low enough to me to have one year for rehab factored in. Good pitchers with some experience are getting 10 mill/year now, so that's what Julio will likely be worth in a couple years, and we're paying him way less than that. Some risk but there always is. This is a pretty team friendly deal IMO.

[Heyward]

Rosenthal just said Simmons COULD be next.

[tululush]

Rosenthal just said Simmons COULD be next.

Wonder when it will happen? My guess is within the week.

[Heyward]

Wonder when it will happen? My guess is within the week.

Maybe sometime around Spring Training.

Better question is how much?

7/65, with an 8th year option at 13 million.

[NinersSBChamps]

Rosenthal just said Simmons COULD be next.

Why is Trevor Rosenthal commenting about the Braves?

[NinersSBChamps]

Kidding ^^^^^

[Dalyn]

Maybe sometime around Spring Training.

Better question is how much?

7/65, with an 8th year option at 13 million.


Now is the perfect time to extend Simmons before he finds his bat. Those numbers are high: more along the lines of what he should be offered AFTER/IF he finds his bat.

[Russ2dollas]

Looks to me like the braves have convinced Liberty that salaries are going to EXPLODE soon. They are looking to lock in 90c on dollar deals b/c they will be 50 c on the dollar deals in a couple of years.

I think this is a great deal if you think Tehran has a basement of a good 3rd starter and/or has a legit shot at being an ace. He could get hurt, but you have insurance and you have all his info (you've groomed him since 16).

I hope Simmons is next.

If the Braves end up with Simmons, Freeman, and Tehran locked in for 6+ years.....then the Braves are in a GREAT spot. They have their leader hitter. They would have stud SS with offensive upside (and allows you to put a bat at 3rd w/ limited range). And they have their number 1 starter (worst case 3rd starter).

With those 3 locked down then the Braves have some leverage with Minor, Heyward, JUp, and Medlen. Leverage b/c they have 3 big spots locked down and they don't have to panic. They can lay out their plan and if the players don't agree or fit, then make the best moves you can.

[NinersSBChamps]

Now is the perfect time to extend Simmons before he finds his bat. Those numbers are high: more along the lines of what he should be offered AFTER/IF he finds his bat.

I'd offer him something along the lines of 6/50 right now. A shade over 8 MM per.

[Russ2dollas]

Simmons I think I'd look for a very team friendly deal and then put in some incentives if he finds his bat. And I'd want to get at least 2, prob 3 FA years.

Like 8/60 with OPS targets that could get him up to 100. Lots of steps inbetween. It will be a bargain in 5 years.

[Heyward]

Now is the perfect time to extend Simmons before he finds his bat. Those numbers are high: more along the lines of what he should be offered AFTER/IF he finds his bat.

Thats a touch under 10 mil a year.

Without the option.

With his defense, thats a bargain.

And it would buy-out 4 FA years.

[nsacpi]

Simmons should get more than Teheran.

[Dalyn]

Thats a touch under 10 mil a year.

Without the option.

With his defense, thats a bargain.

And it would buy-out 4 FA years.

Defense is undervalued. No point in being the first to pay it what it's worth if you don't have to.

[zitothebrave]

Maybe sometime around Spring Training.

Better question is how much?

7/65, with an 8th year option at 13 million.

No, I don't make that deal. I mean let me put it this way, it would be a bargain deal for us most likely. But considering he has 5 years until FA that is way too Simmons friendly. Especially since defense peaks early, if he doesn't start hitting we may have already seen the best of him. I don't believe that but that would be a super risky signing for the Braves.

7/50 would be more friendly as it would basically mean 1M for his pre-arb then say 4, 7 and 10 for arb and then basically 28 for his FA years. Undervaluing his pre-arb most likely but that's more or less how you have tothink of the deal. 7/65 would be like 1M for pre arb 5 10 15 and then 35 for FA. And no way in hell is he worth that on the market. If he thinks he is then he can leave in a few years.

[Heyward]

Looks to me like the braves have convinced Liberty that salaries are going to EXPLODE soon. They are looking to lock in 90c on dollar deals b/c they will be 50 c on the dollar deals in a couple of years.

I think this is a great deal if you think Tehran has a basement of a good 3rd starter and/or has a legit shot at being an ace. He could get hurt, but you have insurance and you have all his info (you've groomed him since 16).

I hope Simmons is next.

If the Braves end up with Simmons, Freeman, and Tehran locked in for 6+ years.....then the Braves are in a GREAT spot. They have their leader hitter. They would have stud SS with offensive upside (and allows you to put a bat at 3rd w/ limited range). And they have their number 1 starter (worst case 3rd starter).

With those 3 locked down then the Braves have some leverage with Minor, Heyward, JUp, and Medlen. Leverage b/c they have 3 big spots locked down and they don't have to panic. They can lay out their plan and if the players don't agree or fit, then make the best moves you can.

Medlen is already 28 and will be 30 by the time he hits FA.

I doubt they extend him, at least not very long.

Minor/JHey/JUp, sure.

I think the plan all along has been for Simmons, JHey, FF as the core and build around them.

I dont think they keep both JHey/JUp, but i dont think both leave either.

JHey will be the hardest to sign though.

[Heyward]

No, I don't make that deal. I mean let me put it this way, it would be a bargain deal for us most likely. But considering he has 5 years until FA that is way too Simmons friendly. Especially since defense peaks early, if he doesn't start hitting we may have already seen the best of him. I don't believe that but that would be a super risky signing for the Braves.

7/50 would be more friendly as it would basically mean 1M for his pre-arb then say 4, 7 and 10 for arb and then basically 28 for his FA years. Undervaluing his pre-arb most likely but that's more or less how you have tothink of the deal. 7/65 would be like 1M for pre arb 5 10 15 and then 35 for FA. And no way in hell is he worth that on the market. If he thinks he is then he can leave in a few years.


:facepalm:

[Heyward]

No, I don't make that deal. I mean let me put it this way, it would be a bargain deal for us most likely. But considering he has 5 years until FA that is way too Simmons friendly. Especially since defense peaks early, if he doesn't start hitting we may have already seen the best of him. I don't believe that but that would be a super risky signing for the Braves.

7/50 would be more friendly as it would basically mean 1M for his pre-arb then say 4, 7 and 10 for arb and then basically 28 for his FA years. Undervaluing his pre-arb most likely but that's more or less how you have tothink of the deal. 7/65 would be like 1M for pre arb 5 10 15 and then 35 for FA. And no way in hell is he worth that on the market. If he thinks he is then he can leave in a few years.

Thats 78 million for 8 years with the option.

Expensive, sure, but nothing insane like 30 mil a year.

Thats just a tick under 10 mil a year, factor in his defense and improved hitting, thats more than a good deal.

[zitothebrave]

10M a year for someone who's 5 years from FA and not Mike Trout is insanely expensive. He has 2 years of league minimum, 3 years of arb. If we compare his pre-arb numbers to the contract signed by Andrus for his pre-FA years. would be like 3, 5 and 7. That was the deal Andrus signed to avoid arb rounded up. My 4, 7, 10 is assuming Simmons is better than Andrus and the arbitrator recognizes it.

So again, pre-FA you're at 22M meaning you're valuing his FA years at 43M or 21.5M per FA year.

Of course Simmons could start hitting then his valuation would be similar to Tulo's who in his extention he signed had his arb years valued at 3.5M 5.5 and 8.25M but you have to acknowledge he signed it years ago.

Tulo signed for 6/31 back in 06, Market has obviosuly risen but you're talking about baying SImmons double that for one more year, the market hasn't increased over 100%

[cajunrevenge]

If I was Wren I would offer simmons a deal through his arb years and with a big team option for his first year or two of free agency. Assuming health Simmons is going to get a lot in arbitration because they value stats like at bats, runs, rbi and hr. Simmons is going to get a ton of at bats barring injuries he could go into his first year of arbitration with almost 2k at bats and 50 home runs. If he hits like he did in the second half and gets to 20 hr a year he is gonna be an all star.

I don't really trust the bat to ever be better than average so I would hesitate to buy out free agent years.

[AUTiger7222]

This is such a steal for the Braves. Even if Julio Teheran never gets any better than what he was in 2013, he will have more than earned what he is getting. There is no negative to be found here. The only people that are wanting to find a negative in this deal are the people that want to bitch about everything.

[zitothebrave]

This is such a steal for the Braves. Even if Julio Teheran never gets any better than what he was in 2013, he will have more than earned what he is getting. There is no negative to be found here. The only people that are wanting to find a negative in this deal are the people that want to bitch about everything.

There is a negative. He could be consistently hurt or he could go Rick Ankiel. Never know. That said playing on projection, it's smart.

[gtcway]

There is a negative. He could be consistently hurt or he could go Rick Ankiel. Never know. That said playing on projection, it's smart.

You can say that about every single contract signed in MLB. There is always risk with every contract.

I like the deal, hope we can do more of them.

[Heyward]

No, I don't make that deal. I mean let me put it this way, it would be a bargain deal for us most likely. But considering he has 5 years until FA that is way too Simmons friendly. Especially since defense peaks early, if he doesn't start hitting we may have already seen the best of him. I don't believe that but that would be a super risky signing for the Braves.

7/50 would be more friendly as it would basically mean 1M for his pre-arb then say 4, 7 and 10 for arb and then basically 28 for his FA years. Undervaluing his pre-arb most likely but that's more or less how you have tothink of the deal. 7/65 would be like 1M for pre arb 5 10 15 and then 35 for FA. And no way in hell is he worth that on the market. If he thinks he is then he can leave in a few years.

Given how ridiculous FA is, yes he would be.

Letting him go over a few extra million is dumb.

[The Chosen One]

You can say that about every single contract signed in MLB. There is always risk with every contract.

I like the deal, hope we can do more of them.

I'd rather have a position player go on the DL 1 or 2 times and miss 30 games, than have a pitcher be out for 1 calendar year for an elbow or 8-10 months for shoulder. Pitcher contracts are always riskier, and the fact that the Braves tried to make him change his mechanics because they saw it was vulnerable to injury, and then gave up and reverted back to his bad mechanics worries me.

I wouldn't have a problem giving Wood or Minor this deal, Teheran worries me.

[zitothebrave]

Given how ridiculous FA is, yes he would be.

Letting him go over a few extra million is dumb.

Holy hell. Let's put it this way, if the going rate for a defensive first (though great mind you) player is 17-22M per year Simmons can gladly leave. Considering there's a bunch of people who can do good for waayyy less.

If you're willing ot pay 17+M for Simmons's first 2 years of FA, then you clearly value him way more than myself (or probably any GM in baseball) or are insane

Consider that Michael Bourn who's not as great of a defender as Simmons but still a GG player (and better offensively because of his speed) and he signed for 4/48.

[keithlaw]

I'd rather have a position player go on the DL 1 or 2 times and miss 30 games, than have a pitcher be out for 1 calendar year for an elbow or 8-10 months for shoulder. Pitcher contracts are always riskier, and the fact that the Braves tried to make him change his mechanics because they saw it was vulnerable to injury, and then gave up and reverted back to his bad mechanics worries me.

I wouldn't have a problem giving Wood or Minor this deal, Teheran worries me.

Yes, long term contracts to pitchers are more risky than long term contracts to position players, but thats why we got such a ginormous discount on his FA years. From a big picture standpoint, teams should want to do lots of these deals (and smart teams like the Rays, and hopefully us, do) since they can diversify the risk over a large number of contracts.

[zitothebrave]

I'd rather have a position player go on the DL 1 or 2 times and miss 30 games, than have a pitcher be out for 1 calendar year for an elbow or 8-10 months for shoulder. Pitcher contracts are always riskier, and the fact that the Braves tried to make him change his mechanics because they saw it was vulnerable to injury, and then gave up and reverted back to his bad mechanics worries me.

I wouldn't have a problem giving Wood or Minor this deal, Teheran worries me.

Wait, you'd be ok giving Wood that deal? He's bound for a few TJs before he's done (unless he's already had one)

[Heyward]

I'd rather have a position player go on the DL 1 or 2 times and miss 30 games, than have a pitcher be out for 1 calendar year for an elbow or 8-10 months for shoulder. Pitcher contracts are always riskier, and the fact that the Braves tried to make him change his mechanics because they saw it was vulnerable to injury, and then gave up and reverted back to his bad mechanics worries me.

I wouldn't have a problem giving Wood or Minor this deal, Teheran worries me.

Minor, i can get.

But Wood?

Hasnt he already had TJ before, and his mechanics worry me ****less.

[yeezus]

Wait, you'd be ok giving Wood that deal? He's bound for a few TJs before he's done (unless he's already had one)

Yeah, uh, and Wood has proven far less.

[zitothebrave]

Wood really intrigues me, but I think he's unfortunately may be heading to Tommy Hanson territory. Sick stuff but injuries ruin him long term.

[jason27nc]

I love the moves the Braves have done recently. Now we need to lock up Kimbrel bad.

[Heyward]

I love the moves the Braves have done recently. Now we need to lock up Kimbrel bad.

:facepalm:

[gtcway]

I'd rather have a position player go on the DL 1 or 2 times and miss 30 games, than have a pitcher be out for 1 calendar year for an elbow or 8-10 months for shoulder. Pitcher contracts are always riskier, and the fact that the Braves tried to make him change his mechanics because they saw it was vulnerable to injury, and then gave up and reverted back to his bad mechanics worries me.

I wouldn't have a problem giving Wood or Minor this deal, Teheran worries me.

The good thing with Teheran's contract is it's so low, that even if he missed a year, it's still a bargain. Yes, the Braves are taking a risk, but it's a risk I'm glad they're willing to take.

[Deester11]

I'd rather have a position player go on the DL 1 or 2 times and miss 30 games, than have a pitcher be out for 1 calendar year for an elbow or 8-10 months for shoulder. Pitcher contracts are always riskier, and the fact that the Braves tried to make him change his mechanics because they saw it was vulnerable to injury, and then gave up and reverted back to his bad mechanics worries me.

I wouldn't have a problem giving Wood or Minor this deal, Teheran worries me.
It's quite possible that he'd have the cursed TJ, but Wood? Are you kidding? I know you watched the same team I did and Teheran grew right before our eyes. Bad mechanics? Where did that come from? It's no worse than others and he certainly doesn't do anything anymore weird than Wood. I like the deal...bad mechanics? Are there any perfect mechanics now? Great deal. Period. And does it count that Teheran was just as good as Minor or not?

[The Chosen One]

Wait, you'd be ok giving Wood that deal? He's bound for a few TJs before he's done (unless he's already had one)


He's already had one, and yes because when Wood started last year, he looked way more comfortable than Teheran did.

I watched Teheran like most of you, and most of his outings it was a struggle just to get to the 5th inning let alone the 6th. It'd be a miracle if he made it to the 5th without already walking a few or getting out of jams like Jorge Sosa. He was already at 80 pitches in the 3rd and 4th inning on plenty occasions. And unlike most of you, I don't see anything special about his fastball and change up. His fastball sits at 92-94 occasionally hitting 95 when he tries to force it, but he has no control over it. The change up has been extremely overrated, especially because Laird claimed whenever he caught Teheran that they were getting his pitches to work. McCann is rated as one of the best pitch callers and frames the ball 20x better than Laird, and Mac and Julio never got on the same page. Laird was obviously hyping up Julio to get some PT as if he was Julio's personal catcher.

I don't see the Pedro comparisons because Pedro's mechanics were very controlled despite looking very wild. Teheran needs to learn to control his fastball first before even trying to worry about the change and curve.

I'm not ready to crown him king yet just because he was rated good in our system. I see legitimate flaws in his game that makes me shake my head that we gave him this money before Medlen, Minor, Simmons, Heyward.

[NinersSBChamps]

For anyone questioning this extension, think about this. Julio Teheran had a higher batting average than Dan Uggla and BJ Upton. The man is a baseball player!!!!!!!!!!

[Heyward]

He's already had one, and yes because when Wood started last year, he looked way more comfortable than Teheran did.

I watched Teheran like most of you, and most of his outings it was a struggle just to get to the 5th inning let alone the 6th. It'd be a miracle if he made it to the 5th without already walking a few or getting out of jams like Jorge Sosa. He was already at 80 pitches in the 3rd and 4th inning on plenty occasions. And unlike most of you, I don't see anything special about his fastball and change up. His fastball sits at 92-94 occasionally hitting 95 when he tries to force it, but he has no control over it. The change up has been extremely overrated, especially because Laird claimed whenever he caught Teheran that they were getting his pitches to work. McCann is rated as one of the best pitch callers and frames the ball 20x better than Laird, and Mac and Julio never got on the same page. Laird was obviously hyping up Julio to get some PT as if he was Julio's personal catcher.

I don't see the Pedro comparisons because Pedro's mechanics were very controlled despite looking very wild. Teheran needs to learn to control his fastball first before even trying to worry about the change and curve.

I'm not ready to crown him king yet just because he was rated good in our system. I see legitimate flaws in his game that makes me shake my head that we gave him this money before Medlen, Minor, Simmons, Heyward.

Medlen will be 30 when he reaches FA, meh.

Simba/JHey/JUp, sure.

Also, it was his first full year as a SP, what were you expecting?

He exceeded most fans expectations imo.

Oh.

After April last year, Teheran had 150 strikeouts and just 37 walks.

Pedro, probably not, but the talent IS there.

[The Chosen One]

150 k and 37 walks in one month has to be a record

[AUTiger7222]

He's already had one, and yes because when Wood started last year, he looked way more comfortable than Teheran did.

I watched Teheran like most of you, and most of his outings it was a struggle just to get to the 5th inning let alone the 6th. It'd be a miracle if he made it to the 5th without already walking a few or getting out of jams like Jorge Sosa. He was already at 80 pitches in the 3rd and 4th inning on plenty occasions. And unlike most of you, I don't see anything special about his fastball and change up. His fastball sits at 92-94 occasionally hitting 95 when he tries to force it, but he has no control over it. The change up has been extremely overrated, especially because Laird claimed whenever he caught Teheran that they were getting his pitches to work. McCann is rated as one of the best pitch callers and frames the ball 20x better than Laird, and Mac and Julio never got on the same page. Laird was obviously hyping up Julio to get some PT as if he was Julio's personal catcher.

I don't see the Pedro comparisons because Pedro's mechanics were very controlled despite looking very wild. Teheran needs to learn to control his fastball first before even trying to worry about the change and curve.

I'm not ready to crown him king yet just because he was rated good in our system. I see legitimate flaws in his game that makes me shake my head that we gave him this money before Medlen, Minor, Simmons, Heyward.

Despite all those things you just said, here are the facts. Julio Teheran was terrible in his first 3 starts of the season. In his next 27 he was great.

27 G, 27 GS (17-10 Braves record), 169 2/3 IP (6 IP per start), 152 H, 56 R, 53 ER, 17 HR, 38 BB, 158 SO, 2.81 ERA, .239/.291/.374 (.665), .290 BABIP, 67% Strikes

So I don't know where you're getting this Jorge Sosa comparison at because the numbers say differently. The numbers say that Julio was dominate after his terrible start to the season.

[Metaphysicist]

http://0-media-cdn.foolz.us/ffuuka/board/q/image/1378/80/1378801129396.gif

[Deester11]

Despite all those things you just said, here are the facts. Julio Teheran was terrible in his first 3 starts of the season. In his next 27 he was great.

27 G, 27 GS (17-10 Braves record), 169 2/3 IP (6 IP per start), 152 H, 56 R, 53 ER, 17 HR, 38 BB, 158 SO, 2.81 ERA, .239/.291/.374 (.665), .290 BABIP, 67% Strikes

So I don't know where you're getting this Jorge Sosa comparison at because the numbers say differently. The numbers say that Julio was dominate after his terrible start to the season.

Excellent post. Teheran is not an ace yet. But for a rookie doing what he did? KeithLockhart(ewww), I'm not sure you saw what most saw. Jorge Sosa? Not close. I'm glad the Braves see a potential early rotation guy. He may not be Pedro, but as he grows into a vet, I'm thinking that contract will be a bargain.

[Tapate50]

Jorge Sosa?

Harf harf

[The Chosen One]

First things first, the reason I said Alex Wood was because 1) Alex already had TJ and 2) If we're going to give a big contract to an unproven pitcher with not so good mechanics, I'd rather go Wood because he showed a lot more in his starts than Teheran did.

And yes Teheran did labor in a good amount of his starts like Sosa used to do. I remember when Julio was throwing like 6-8 pitches per batter, it was just a struggle to watch.

And again, there's nothing about his stuff that blows me away. He's going to have to learn how to pitch instead of trying to strikeout everybody.

[skillet]

While I'm glad to see the Braves attempting to lock up our young core, at least longer than we already had them locked up, neither the Freeman or Teheran deals are at any type of discount. Basically what we've done is locked in what is expected they would have gotten had they not signed these deals.

The problem I have with both deals is this. We went from only on the hook for this year's salary, to now guaranteeing Freddie 8 years and Julio 6. Instead of us being obligated to pay Julio league minimum for this year and Freddie roughly $5MM for this year, we have now guaranteed them $167.2MM over the next 7-8 years. Usually when one side is willing to make the gamble of guaranteeing the other side all this money, in return they should receive some type of reduction concession. In both of these two cases, we did not.

We have now taken on a tremendous amount of additional risk over the next 7-8 years, yet received no discount for it. Freddie's deal should have been for more like $120MM-$125MM, and Julio's should have been around $25MM-$28MM. We've taken on all the risk with no compensation for that additional risk. Could they work out? Sure they could if both continue to perform at high levels for the length of the deals. But they also could turn out to be quite damaging.

[keithlaw]

While I'm glad to see the Braves attempting to lock up our young core, at least longer than we already had them locked up, neither the Freeman or Teheran deals are at any type of discount. Basically what we've done is locked in what is expected they would have gotten had they not signed these deals.

The problem I have with both deals is this. We went from only on the hook for this year's salary, to now guaranteeing Freddie 8 years and Julio 6. Instead of us being obligated to pay Julio league minimum for this year and Freddie roughly $5MM for this year, we have now guaranteed them $167.2MM over the next 7-8 years. Usually when one side is willing to make the gamble of guaranteeing the other side all this money, in return they should receive some type of reduction concession. In both of these two cases, we did not.

We have now taken on a tremendous amount of additional risk over the next 7-8 years, yet received no discount for it. Freddie's deal should have been for more like $120MM-$125MM, and Julio's should have been around $25MM-$28MM. We've taken on all the risk with no compensation for that additional risk. Could they work out? Sure they could if both continue to perform at high levels for the length of the deals. But they also could turn out to be quite damaging.
Even if Teheran is never better than an average starter, the last 2 years of his deal are huge discounts assuming he's healthy. Nolasco signed away his age 31-34 seasons for $49 million this offseason and he's a 90 ERA+ guy who doesn't even average 200 IP.

[Heyward]

While I'm glad to see the Braves attempting to lock up our young core, at least longer than we already had them locked up, neither the Freeman or Teheran deals are at any type of discount. Basically what we've done is locked in what is expected they would have gotten had they not signed these deals.

The problem I have with both deals is this. We went from only on the hook for this year's salary, to now guaranteeing Freddie 8 years and Julio 6. Instead of us being obligated to pay Julio league minimum for this year and Freddie roughly $5MM for this year, we have now guaranteed them $167.2MM over the next 7-8 years. Usually when one side is willing to make the gamble of guaranteeing the other side all this money, in return they should receive some type of reduction concession. In both of these two cases, we did not.

We have now taken on a tremendous amount of additional risk over the next 7-8 years, yet received no discount for it. Freddie's deal should have been for more like $120MM-$125MM, and Julio's should have been around $25MM-$28MM. We've taken on all the risk with no compensation for that additional risk. Could they work out? Sure they could if both continue to perform at high levels for the length of the deals. But they also could turn out to be quite damaging.

Freeman deal, sure, but if they waited another year may not have been able to sign him or it would of cost more.

Provided health (no given with pitchers), Julio's deal absolutely could be a bargain given the market for SP's right now.

[nsacpi]

While I'm glad to see the Braves attempting to lock up our young core, at least longer than we already had them locked up, neither the Freeman or Teheran deals are at any type of discount. Basically what we've done is locked in what is expected they would have gotten had they not signed these deals.

The problem I have with both deals is this. We went from only on the hook for this year's salary, to now guaranteeing Freddie 8 years and Julio 6. Instead of us being obligated to pay Julio league minimum for this year and Freddie roughly $5MM for this year, we have now guaranteed them $167.2MM over the next 7-8 years. Usually when one side is willing to make the gamble of guaranteeing the other side all this money, in return they should receive some type of reduction concession. In both of these two cases, we did not.

We have now taken on a tremendous amount of additional risk over the next 7-8 years, yet received no discount for it. Freddie's deal should have been for more like $120MM-$125MM, and Julio's should have been around $25MM-$28MM. We've taken on all the risk with no compensation for that additional risk. Could they work out? Sure they could if both continue to perform at high levels for the length of the deals. But they also could turn out to be quite damaging.

I'm glad to see some dissenting views to the general enthusiasm for the Freeman and Teheran deals. I think the two deals will work out ok for the team. But there is significant risk. In the case of Freeman, the deal is basically assuming he is a 4 win player. He has one season over 4 WAR in his three year career. I would feel better if he had more of a track record, but that is the issue with young players. They get more expensive with more of a track record. The Teheran deal prices him as a 2 win per year player. He came in at 2.4 WAR in his one season. Young players are a better risk than old players. But young players are risky too. See our own Brandon Beachy. See Francoeur. Imagine if he had accepted the deal we offered him.

[AUTiger7222]

First things first, the reason I said Alex Wood was because 1) Alex already had TJ and 2) If we're going to give a big contract to an unproven pitcher with not so good mechanics, I'd rather go Wood because he showed a lot more in his starts than Teheran did.

And yes Teheran did labor in a good amount of his starts like Sosa used to do. I remember when Julio was throwing like 6-8 pitches per batter, it was just a struggle to watch.

And again, there's nothing about his stuff that blows me away. He's going to have to learn how to pitch instead of trying to strikeout everybody.

Ok. We've watched 2 different pitchers and aren't going to agree on this.

[sturg33]

nice TalkingChop article about the Teheran deal/value (http://www.talkingchop.com/2014/2/14/5412044/the-value-in-the-teheran-deal-lies-in-the-option)

[weso1]

Excellent post. Teheran is not an ace yet. But for a rookie doing what he did? KeithLockhart(ewww), I'm not sure you saw what most saw. Jorge Sosa? Not close. I'm glad the Braves see a potential early rotation guy. He may not be Pedro, but as he grows into a vet, I'm thinking that contract will be a bargain.

In Lockhart's defense, Sosa was the only former Brave brown skin pitcher he could think of at that moment.

[Hawk]

nice TalkingChop article

That's certainly an oxymoron.

[Deester11]

In Lockhart's defense, Sosa was the only former Brave brown skin pitcher he could think of at that moment.
That made me spit out an energy drink! Thanks a lot Weso! LOL

The funny thing is that I don't get where the bad mechanics nonsense is coming from. Additionally, whether he labored or not, as a rookie he did just fine considering he was supposed to just be a "5th starter." Anyone who saw the Braves consistently when Hudson went down, knew that Minor and Teheran (Wood too) would give you a chance to win games.

[The Chosen One]

Even if Teheran is never better than an average starter, the last 2 years of his deal are huge discounts assuming he's healthy. Nolasco signed away his age 31-34 seasons for $49 million this offseason and he's a 90 ERA+ guy who doesn't even average 200 IP.

If he's never better than an average starter then that's why we have farm system so we don't get stuck in the final years.

Pitching is what we've excelled at in production.

We used Tommy Hanson until the point of no return.
Medlen wasn't thought of as potentially a front end starter.
Minor struggled out of the gate after being drafted top 10. Beachy came out of nowhere and to an extent Wood.

I would have waited another year or two to give him a long term deal.

[skillet]

If he's never better than an average starter then that's why we have farm system so we don't get stuck in the final years.

Pitching is what we've excelled at in production.

We used Tommy Hanson until the point of no return.
Medlen wasn't thought of as potentially a front end starter.
Minor struggled out of the gate after being drafted top 10. Beachy came out of nowhere and to an extent Wood.

I would have waited another year or two to give him a long term deal.

This is a good and valid point. We have been very, very good at developing good to great pitching for years from our farm system. It is something the Braves are very good at. We didn't really need to take on this added risk. We already had Teheran under team control for the next 5 years. This deal only adds two years to that, with solid raises guaranteed every year.

We still have Medlen for two more years, Minor for 4, Beachy for 3 and Wood for 6. Then we have Sims, Hursh and Graham along with several others that could replace them in the future at minimal cost. I'm not really against the deal per se and if Julio turns into an ace or #2 starter for years and stays relatively healthy this deal could become a bargain, but I'm just not sure the potential reward outweighs the added risk.

[AUTiger7222]

Am I the only one that remembers Kyle Davis, Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton, Anthony Lerew, ect. all bombing and the Braves having to pull guys like Buddy Carlyle and Jorge Campillo off the streets just to fill out a rotation in 2006, 2007 and 2008? How'd that work out for the Braves? Just because of have a bunch of guys that are supposed to be highly rated prospects doesn't mean they will develop into solid major league players. That's why you take a guy who you know is proven, Teheran, and you lock him up.

[nsacpi]

One interesting aspect about the Freeman and Teheran deals is the Wren reached out to the players and their agents to make the deal. If I recall correctly, with McCann it was the player who asked his agent to explore if a deal could be reached. There is a big difference in the two situations from a bargaining perspective. Having signed Freeman and Teheran, I think Wren should now sit back and wait for the players and agents to approach him.

[skillet]

Am I the only one that remembers Kyle Davis, Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton, Anthony Lerew, ect. all bombing and the Braves having to pull guys like Buddy Carlyle and Jorge Campillo off the streets just to fill out a rotation in 2006, 2007 and 2008? How'd that work out for the Braves? Just because of have a bunch of guys that are supposed to be highly rated prospects doesn't mean they will develop into solid major league players. That's why you take a guy who you know is proven, Teheran, and you lock him up.

Locking guys up is one thing, but locking them up with no discount to greatly added risk is another.

[thewupk]

One interesting aspect about the Freeman and Teheran deals is the Wren reached out to the players and their agents to make the deal. If I recall correctly, with McCann it was the player who asked his agent to explore if a deal could be reached. There is a big difference in the two situations from a bargaining perspective. Having signed Freeman and Teheran, I think Wren should now sit back and wait for the players and agents to approach him.

I thought I read where Freddie's camp came to Wren regarding both Heywards and Freemans deal.

[thewupk]

Locking guys up is one thing, but locking them up with no discount to greatly added risk is another.

It's a discount even if he never gets better. 11 million for his first free agency year and then 12 for the option that the Braves have. Both are below current market level prices for what he did in 2013. Also keep in mind that even without taking the next step, each year those potential free agency years would go up in cost as he got closer to free agency and as the market value continued to get inflated. There is a risk sure. He could get hurt/suck along the lines of Hanson. But I think the risk is worth it considering how much he would get if he stays healthy and pitches like he did in 2013 without any improvement.

[Heyward]

Locking guys up is one thing, but locking them up with no discount to greatly added risk is another.

7/44 is a bargain.

Again, look at the market for top SP's.

Say Teheran keeps progressing and hit the market in 5 years.

How much would he command, EASILY, EASILY 16-20+ mil a year.

His first 2 FA years with the option is 11 and 12 million for his age 29-30 seasons i believe.

That's a bargain.

The reason for this if he develops into an ace, he wont cost as much to extend and his arb years are cheaper than they would of been if he didnt get signed now.

Logic, try it.

The Freeman deal may indeed be an overpay but if they waited, they may of not been able to sign him.

For a mid-market team, this is something we need to do.

We cant go out there and get in a bidding war with the LA/NY/Philly type of markets who have unlimited spending on the top FA's.

7/44 for one of the top young pitchers in baseball is a bargain, no two ways around it.

[Heyward]

This is a good and valid point. We have been very, very good at developing good to great pitching for years from our farm system. It is something the Braves are very good at. We didn't really need to take on this added risk. We already had Teheran under team control for the next 5 years. This deal only adds two years to that, with solid raises guaranteed every year.

We still have Medlen for two more years, Minor for 4, Beachy for 3 and Wood for 6. Then we have Sims, Hursh and Graham along with several others that could replace them in the future at minimal cost. I'm not really against the deal per se and if Julio turns into an ace or #2 starter for years and stays relatively healthy this deal could become a bargain, but I'm just not sure the potential reward outweighs the added risk.


Medlen may get dealt next winter, and will be 30 when he hits FA.

Wood's mechanics worry the crap out of me.

Beachy, yes, but while i think he may be fine its not a given.

Also, while we do have those, not a lock they develop.

Hursh and Graham are best suited in the bullpen imo, and Sims may replace Medlen in 2016.

[skillet]

Have we gotten the exact breakdown of the deal yet?

[thewupk]

Have we gotten the exact breakdown of the deal yet?

Teheran received a $1 million signing bonus and will earn $800,000 in 2014. His annual salaries will go up to $1 million in 2015, $3.3 million in 2016, $6.3 million in 2017, $8 million in 2018 and $11 million in 2019.

So he will earn more this year and in 2015 with this deal instead of going year to year but assuming he stays healthy and pitches like he did in 2014 on out we will save in pre-arb years and definitely a lot in the free agency years.

[skillet]

Teheran received a $1 million signing bonus and will earn $800,000 in 2014. His annual salaries will go up to $1 million in 2015, $3.3 million in 2016, $6.3 million in 2017, $8 million in 2018 and $11 million in 2019.

So he will earn more this year and in 2015 with this deal instead of going year to year but assuming he stays healthy and pitches like he did in 2014 on out we will save in pre-arb years and definitely a lot in the free agency years.

Thanks thewupk. How does the $1MM signing bonus, as well as Freddie's $2.875MM signing bonus, figure into their yearly salaries, at least as far as what the Braves have to count for each year? Perhaps spread evenly over the guaranteed years? If so, in Julio's case, since he has 6 guaranteed years, that would be $166,667/ year, so $967M this year, $1.167MM in 2015, etc?

[thewupk]

Thanks thewupk. How does the $1MM signing bonus, as well as Freddie's $2.875MM signing bonus, figure into their yearly salaries, at least as far as what the Braves have to count for each year? Perhaps spread evenly over the guaranteed years? If so, in Julio's case, since he has 6 guaranteed years, that would be $166,667/ year, so $967M this year, $1.167MM in 2015, etc?

I know signing bonuses can be spread across multiple years for luxury tax purposes. As for actual payroll I'm not sure. They get it paid upfront so it would come out of this years payroll I would assume.

[nsacpi]

Counting the bonuses to Teheran, Heyward and Freeman and assuming Floyd earns half his incentives and Kimbrel loses in arbitration payroll right now is $100M. I assume Wren is keeping some powder dry for mid-season moves.

[skillet]

I know signing bonuses can be spread across multiple years for luxury tax purposes. As for actual payroll I'm not sure. They get it paid upfront so it would come out of this years payroll I would assume.

What is the reason for the bonuses? Julio is going to get $800,000 this year plus receive the $1MM bonus upfront, so he will make $1.8MM this year, at least as far as he is concerned. I would assume the Braves want to give a $1MM bonus so that they don't have to count it all against this year. Freddie gets $5.125MM this year with a $2.875MM bonus. Effectively he gets $8MM this year in his pocket, but I guess the Braves can spread that bonus out over I think up to the total amount of guaranteed years for bookkeeping purposes.

[nsacpi]

What is the reason for the bonuses? Julio is going to get $800,000 this year plus receive the $1MM bonus upfront, so he will make $1.8MM this year, at least as far as he is concerned. I would assume the Braves want to give a $1MM bonus so that they don't have to count it all against this year. Freddie gets $5.125MM this year with a $2.875MM bonus. Effectively he gets $8MM this year in his pocket, but I guess the Braves can spread that bonus out over I think up to the total amount of guaranteed years for bookkeeping purposes.

Actually the Braves may want to shift some payroll to 2014 since the real crunch is in 2015. To the extent they have accounting discretion I think they will count the bonuses against 2014 payroll.

[AUTiger7222]

Locking guys up is one thing, but locking them up with no discount to greatly added risk is another.
'
It is a discount. Look at the deals guys like Scott Feldman got ($30M for 3 years) and the deal Bronson Arroyo just got. Julio is a much better pitcher than both of them and much younger too.

[weso1]

Those of you who say there is not discount in this deal are incorrect. There is a discount imo. It's a potential discount. Whilest the Braves are clearly taking risk here, so is Teheran. You see it's very possible that at the end of his arby years he could be worth much more than 12 mil per year. This is where the potential discount lies for the Braves. At the end of Teheran's arby the Braves could have a major bargain. The Braves signed him to now dollars for a two or even third free agent starter. This is why they did the deal. The potential discount. At 35 million it's relatively not that much of a risk. It's better than signing Trout for 300 million for example. Now that is a risk.

[clvclv]

Teheran received a $1 million signing bonus and will earn $800,000 in 2014. His annual salaries will go up to $1 million in 2015, $3.3 million in 2016, $6.3 million in 2017, $8 million in 2018 and $11 million in 2019.

So he will earn more this year and in 2015 with this deal instead of going year to year but assuming he stays healthy and pitches like he did in 2014 on out we will save in pre-arb years and definitely a lot in the free agency years.


Link?

That only comes up to $31.4 million IF you include the signing bonus.

(Nevermind - the extra $1 million is the option. Don't do ESPN, sorry.)

[thewupk]

Link?

That only comes up to $31.4 million IF you include the signing bonus.

It was in the ESPN article about it.

I'm guessing the extra million would include the buyout for the club option. So it is 32.4 in guaranteed money.

[thethe]

Thought this was a great stat:

Tehearns strikeout to walk ratio of 3.78 to 1 last season ranked as the ninth-best season among those who qualified for the ERA title at age 22 or younger in baseball’s live ball era (since 1920).

[jpx7]

Wood really intrigues me

http://i.imgur.com/ynShe2c.jpg

[jpx7]

I'm not really against the deal per se and if Julio turns into an ace or #2 starter for years and stays relatively healthy this deal could become a bargain

Though I'm not sure Teheran would have been the first current starter I would have extended, were I the GM, I'm generally in favor of all these extensions (except the Heyward deal, which I wish was about six years longer) because it at least demonstrates clear willingness on the team's part to spend to retain.

Having said that, I do wonder—especially in the case of Teheran, but with respect to Freeman as well—if Wren isn't banking on these being deals that, with a few years retrospection, look like super-smart, Chris-Sale-level steals. It's not a terrible strategy, but it is premised on Teheran and (especially) Freeman rising to and staying at the top of their categories.

However—aside from his being a relief-pitcher—I think the Kimbrel deal is an unequivocal win.

[Hawk]

(except the Heyward deal, which I wish was about six years longer)

Hear, hear.

[Julio3000]

Though I'm not sure Teheran would have been the first current starter I would have extended, were I the GM, I'm generally in favor of all these extensions (except the Heyward deal, which I wish was about six years longer) because it at least demonstrates clear willingness on the team's part to spend to retain.

Having said that, I do wonder—especially in the case of Teheran, but with respect to Freeman as well—if Wren isn't banking on these being deals that, with a few years retrospection, look like super-smart, Chris-Sale-level steals. It's not a terrible strategy, but it is premised on Teheran and (especially) Freeman rising to and staying at the top of their categories.

However—aside from his being a relief-pitcher—I think the Kimbrel deal is an unequivocal win.

Yeah, I think that's it. Teheran's is more of a high-risk/high-reward proposition than doing a deal with one of the other starters would be. I think Wren wasn't just blowing smoke when he talked about how high the organization is on him. I think they're confident that it's going to be a winner, for what that's worth.

Freddie was a beast in 2013, but I can't say that I am quite as sanguine about his upside as some are. Still, nothing ventured, nothing gained.

[Heyward]

Though I'm not sure Teheran would have been the first current starter I would have extended, were I the GM, I'm generally in favor of all these extensions (except the Heyward deal, which I wish was about six years longer) because it at least demonstrates clear willingness on the team's part to spend to retain.

Having said that, I do wonder—especially in the case of Teheran, but with respect to Freeman as well—if Wren isn't banking on these being deals that, with a few years retrospection, look like super-smart, Chris-Sale-level steals. It's not a terrible strategy, but it is premised on Teheran and (especially) Freeman rising to and staying at the top of their categories.

However—aside from his being a relief-pitcher—I think the Kimbrel deal is an unequivocal win.

They tried to extend him after 2012 but they werent close to what he and his reps were asking.

Takes two to tango.

[jason27nc]

I like it. I would much rather them spend it on a guy like this than some broken down veteran like Lowe or Hampton. I liked those guys but we wrapped way to much money into them IMO.

[NYCBrave]

Thought this was a great stat:

Tehearns strikeout to walk ratio of 3.78 to 1 last season ranked as the ninth-best season among those who qualified for the ERA title at age 22 or younger in baseball’s live ball era (since 1920).

Wow, thanks for sharing. That's pretty impressive.

[Orphan Black]

If Homer Bailey gets his 6 years 100 million that's be tossed around then Teheran is way worth this contract.

[cajunrevenge]

Bailey is one year from free agency and Teheran is 5. Players with less service time give a discount for guaranteed money.

[BRule]

If Homer Bailey gets his 6 years 100 million that's be tossed around then Teheran is way worth this contract.

The 2 aren't similar situations.... at all.

[Orphan Black]

Why does service time matter? What you're are saying is that if two pitchers can put up similar numbers the pitcher with less time til free agency should get substantially more money...where's the logic in that?

I didn't say they were similar situations. I just said that if Bailey can get 6 years 100 million right now, Teheran is way worth this contract.

[thewupk]

Why does service time matter? What you're are saying is that if two pitchers can put up similar numbers the pitcher with less time til free agency should get substantially more money...where's the logic in that?

I didn't say they were similar situations. I just said that if Bailey can get 6 years 100 million right now, Teheran is way worth this contract.


Because someone as far away from free agency like Teheran has their prices limited pretty hard. If we just went with JT from year to year then he would be forced to make league minimum these next two years. And then he would go to arbitration and likely make 5 million. Then that would price go up somewhat in his second arbitration year and then even more in his 3rd and final arbitration year before free agency. Why pay JT market value of 15-18 million a year when there is no way he's going to make more then league minimum the next two years if he didn't sign a deal? That's why deals for guys like JT are smaller in value. If JT was a year or two away from FA he would not be signing for 6/32.

[Orphan Black]

Because someone as far away from free agency like Teheran has their prices limited pretty hard. If we just went with JT from year to year then he would be forced to make league minimum these next two years. And then he would go to arbitration and likely make 5 million. Then that would price go up somewhat in his second arbitration year and then even more in his 3rd and final arbitration year before free agency. Why pay JT market value of 15-18 million a year when there is no way he's going to make more then league minimum the next two years if he didn't sign a deal? That's why deals for guys like JT are smaller in value. If JT was a year or two away from FA he would not be signing for 6/32.

Ummm...they didn't pay JT market value of 15-18 mil...that was my point.

[yeezus]

Ummm...they didn't pay JT market value of 15-18 mil...that was my point.

I think you're saying that from a pure value standpoint, Teheran is a much bigger bargain. I agree with you 100%, but that's to be expected because he doesn't have the service time. Still a bargain, though.

[thewupk]

Ummm...they didn't pay JT market value of 15-18 mil...that was my point.

Because he is 5 years from free agency. And I explained to you why. You are the one who said you don't see the logic in someone closer to FA getting more money.

[Orphan Black]

Because he is 5 years from free agency. And I explained to you why. You are the one who said you don't see the logic in someone closer to FA getting more money.

That's because it wasn't logic...it is something that is done because that's how it has always been done, but I think the Braves are showing they are willing to go against what has been done in the past (which made no sense) to try and keep the team competitive. That means taking on a little more risk by signing their players with less service time for relatively below market value of their projected production.

[jpx7]

That's because it wasn't logic.

But there is a very clear logic, and this is it: A player, under most normal circumstances, must play six years to reach free-agent status; as said player approaches free-agent status, he has thus played more seasons, providing more data about the productive quality of said player. This qualitative data is quantified by the team hoping to contractually extend said player, in terms of dollars as well as years, and with more robust qualitative data comes more certainty comes more dollars and years.

Players nearer their first free-agency being paid more than players farther from it isn't just some strange convention rooted in the perfunctory ignorance of the past; there's a fairly transparent cost/benefit reasoning at play.

[thewupk]

That's because it wasn't logic...it is something that is done because that's how it has always been done, but I think the Braves are showing they are willing to go against what has been done in the past (which made no sense) to try and keep the team competitive. That means taking on a little more risk by signing their players with less service time for relatively below market value of their projected production.

Actually that happens all the time. Players a few years away from free agency will sign for under market value for guaranteed money.