FG Steamers Projections Out

[bravesfanforlife88]

Acuna 38 HR - 56 SB - 7.4 WAR
Olson 40 HR - 112 RBI - 4.4 WAR
Harris 23 HR - 22 SB - 4.3 WAR
Riley 35 HR - 109 RBI - 4.0 WAR
Albies 29 HR - 13 SB - 3.9 WAR
Murphy 17 HR - 55 RBI - 3.2 WAR

From there, everyone else is under 2 WAR projected

Stirder 4.9 WAR
Fried 3.5 WAR
Sale 2.8 WAR
Morton 2.1 WAR
Elder 1.2 WAR

Honestly, both on offense and pitching it seems a little light.

LINK (https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?lg=&team=16&pos=&stats=pit)

[chop2chip]

Harris seems primed for a breakout season where he emerges as our second best position player.

[Deester11]

Am I the only one that doesn't want Acuña to steal 50+ bases?

[bravesfanforlife88]

Looking at the pitching end, if Sale puts up 2.8 WAR I think we’d all be very happy

[Super]

Am I the only one that doesn't want Acuña to steal 50+ bases?

I mean ideally no, but he’s going to run. If he steals 50+, that likely means he was healthy. And that’s what matters.

[GovClintonTyree]

Am I the only one that doesn't want Acuña to steal 50+ bases?

What I’d really prefer is for Acuña to hit 700 times and steal none of them. Maybe clean up his defense a bit.

[Hulavol]

Am I the only one that doesn't want Acuña to steal 50+ bases?

Solution to this: he can only steal to match his homers.

“You wanna steal fifty bags? Hit fifty dingers- those are the rules.”
“You wanna steal 70? No problem- get back in the cage and work on that FB rate some more.” 😂

[Enscheff]

Acuna 38 HR - 56 SB - 7.4 WAR
Olson 40 HR - 112 RBI - 4.4 WAR
Harris 23 HR - 22 SB - 4.3 WAR
Riley 35 HR - 109 RBI - 4.0 WAR
Albies 29 HR - 13 SB - 3.9 WAR
Murphy 17 HR - 55 RBI - 3.2 WAR

From there, everyone else is under 2 WAR projected

Stirder 4.9 WAR
Fried 3.5 WAR
Sale 2.8 WAR
Morton 2.1 WAR
Elder 1.2 WAR

Honestly, both on offense and pitching it seems a little light.

LINK (https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?lg=&team=16&pos=&stats=pit)

Considering they are projecting Acuna as the #1 player in the sport, Olson as tied for best 1B in the sport, Harris as the #2 CF in the sport, Riley as the #5 3B in the sport, Albies as the #4 2B in the sport, Murphy as the #6 C in the sport despite being projected for only 99 games...I find it a bit homerific to call the projections "light".

[mfree80]

Ranking among peers is a totally different construct than actual performance measures.

They can predict solid rankings and still be a little light on performance measures.

[Enscheff]

Everyone is projected in precisely the same manner. If the Braves hitters are "light" then all hitters are "light". Every fan of every team thinks projections for their team are "light".

Being unsatisfied with these projections is pure homerism. At least have the self awareness to recognize it.

[DirkPiggler]

Olson and Riley are really the only ones that seem excessively low. Barring injury it's hard to see a drop off of over 2.0 WAR for Olson and 1.2 for Riley.

There's a path for everyone in the lineup to exceed the projections for sure, but it's asking a lot for that many of them to do it for a second year in a row.

[Enscheff]

That’s how projections work. They weigh the bad possibilities with the good possibilities, and project the average. They do exactly the same thing for every single player.

Fans only project the best case scenarios, and most of them can’t even realize they are doing it. Then they call the projections “light” for their team.

[DirkPiggler]

That’s how projections work. They weigh the bad possibilities with the good possibilities, and project the average. They do exactly the same thing for every single player.

Fans only project the best case scenarios, and most of them can’t even realize they are doing it. Then they call the projections “light” for their team.

Looking a little more in-depth it seems as if Riley's projected decline is more due to defense than offense, which I guess is understandable. The projection doesn't seem to believe in Riley's defensive improvements from last year. If it was simply averaging his performance it wouldn't make sense to think he'd be measurably worse than his previous three years given his age, but I guess defense is a good bit more volatile.

Otherwise, if you were just looking at the raw WAR numbers it wouldn't make sense to expect a 27 year old to go 4.8, 5.6, 5.2, and then back down all the way to 4.0, regardless of what team he was on or any individual fan loyalties.

[jpx7]

Interesting that Steamer has Dylan Cease at 2.7 fwar in 178 IP—a hair shy of Sale’s projection, in the aggregate, and substantially worse on a rate basis (given Sale’s 2.8 fwar projection comes in ~140 anticipated innings).

While Zips is a bit rosier on Cease (3.0 in 166 IP), and quite a bit more skeptical of Sale’s durability (in Dan’s Boston projections, a bearish 90 IP of 1.4 fwar), it’s nevertheless easy to see why the Braves took their Grissom and went from pale to crimson sock. While Cease would be a great #3 in the Braves’ rotation, they’d have likely paid a lot more in talent for, essentially, better prior-three-season durability. We’ll see if that gamble on Sale's future health works out, but it’s easy to see why they made it, given limited prospect resources and the fact that Sale and Cease came with similar two-year windows of controllability.


For reference:



Dylan Cease fwar/200IP
Chris Sale fwar/200IP


Steamer
3.03
4.00


Zips
3.61
3.11

[thewupk]

Looking a little more in-depth it seems as if Riley's projected decline is more due to defense than offense, which I guess is understandable. The projection doesn't seem to believe in Riley's defensive improvements from last year. If it was simply averaging his performance it wouldn't make sense to think he'd be measurably worse than his previous three years given his age, but I guess defense is a good bit more volatile.

Otherwise, if you were just looking at the raw WAR numbers it wouldn't make sense to expect a 27 year old to go 4.8, 5.6, 5.2, and then back down all the way to 4.0, regardless of what team he was on or any individual fan loyalties.

It's also projecting Riley with 50 less plate apperances in 2024 than 2023. While not a lot still is another dent in the overall WAR projection.

That said, Steamer expects Riley to be the same hitter in 2024 as he was in 2023. Any hiccups in total playing time, defense, and baserunning are pretty minor. I'd say he maxed all of those out in terms of possibilities in 2023 and it helped him post a 5 WAR season. If he's posting a ~130 WRC+ with 35+ bombs and close to 100/100 on runs and rbi nobody is going to really care where on the spectrum base running and defense he ends up at.

[thewupk]

Olson and Riley are really the only ones that seem excessively low. Barring injury it's hard to see a drop off of over 2.0 WAR for Olson and 1.2 for Riley.

There's a path for everyone in the lineup to exceed the projections for sure, but it's asking a lot for that many of them to do it for a second year in a row.

Olson just had a career year at age 29 and set 2 team records. I don't expect him to be that good next year. He's projected to have a season like his last one in Oakland which is more than fine and realisitcally what we should expeect for a couple more years.

[msstate7]

Olson just had a career year at age 29 and set 2 team records. I don't expect him to be that good next year. He's projected to have a season like his last one in Oakland which is more than fine and realisitcally what we should expeect for a couple more years.

He's gonna be like FF - better with age

[Enscheff]

It's also projecting Riley with 50 less plate apperances in 2024 than 2023. While not a lot still is another dent in the overall WAR projection.

That said, Steamer expects Riley to be the same hitter in 2024 as he was in 2023. Any hiccups in total playing time, defense, and baserunning are pretty minor. I'd say he maxed all of those out in terms of possibilities in 2023 and it helped him post a 5 WAR season. If he's posting a ~130 WRC+ with 35+ bombs and close to 100/100 on runs and rbi nobody is going to really care where on the spectrum base running and defense he ends up at.

This.

Riley’s average projection is factoring in the potential he won’t play 162 games. He may play 50 games and post 1 win. He may play 162 and post 5 wins.

Again, that’s how projections work. And every fan of every team thinks the projections are “light” on their favorite players.

[cajunrevenge]

I think Riley is capable of a .290/.360/.600 season. Maybe it will only come in a career year but I bet its before he hits 30. Wont be the least bit surprised if its this year.

[Enscheff]

Riley has been remarkably consistent the last 3 years.

.303/.367/.531 (.227 ISO) .368 BABIP (this flukey BABIP is why he batted .303)
.273/.349/.528 (.255 ISO) .315 BABIP
.281/.345/.516 (.234 ISO) .324 BABIP

wOBAs of .379, .377, .363. xwOBAs of .366, .378, .366.

His BB rate the last 4 years has slightly improved from 7.8% to 8.3%, and his K rate the last 3 years has also slightly improved from 25.4% to 24.1%.

In many ways, Riley is one of the easiest players in all of baseball to project. And indeed, the projection systems peg him for yet another excellent .275/.350/.520 season with a BABIP of .320. The only reason he isn't projected for 5+ wins is no projection system projects a guy who isn't hitting leadoff for 700 PAs, not even one as durable as Riley.

The main place Riley has room to beat projections is on defense. The models don't believe his defense really improved in a sustainable way, so they have him regressing. But here's a hot take: nobody cares if Riley is worth -5 runs or +3 runs defesively when he is anchoring the middle of a championship lineup. When he posts another .370 wOBA that's all anyone should care about.

[cajunrevenge]

Most players have their best years from age 27-29 and Riley has grown a ton over the years so far. I would bet he has a monster year in the next 3 years even if its a career year he doesnt reach again.

[Enscheff]

Those are very nice vague predictions. Where do you think the extra power is going to come from that leads to the .600 SLG? Higher FB rate? Higher exit velocities? More contact? A fluky HR/FB rate for a season?

Or is the prediction just "monster year because I'm a fan of Riley"?

[CyYoung31]

Those are very nice vague predictions. Where do you think the extra power is going to come from that leads to the .600 SLG? Higher FB rate? Higher exit velocities? More contact? A fluky HR/FB rate for a season?

Or is the prediction just "monster year because I'm a fan of Riley"?

A fluky HR/FB rate is destined to happen.

[Enscheff]

It happens, and fluky full season BABIP or HR/FB rate is how guys typically win an MVP.

Freeman won his MVP with a .366 BABIP, and almost won another last year with a .370 BABIP.

It's entirely possible Riley pairs his .368 BABIP from 2021 with an equally fluky 25% HR/FB rate and posts a .310/.375/.600 season, but that's not how projections work. Predicting those types of seasons is how fans work though.

[Tapate50]

Buzz Killington reporting for duty as always

[CyYoung31]

It happens, and fluky full season BABIP or HR/FB rate is how guys typically win an MVP.

Freeman won his MVP with a .366 BABIP, and almost won another last year with a .370 BABIP.

It's entirely possible Riley pairs his .368 BABIP from 2021 with an equally fluky 25% HR/FB rate and posts a .310/.375/.600 season, but that's not how projections work. Predicting those types of seasons is how fans work though.

I didn’t say that’s how projections work. I’m just saying that it very likely to happen based on history and we shouldn’t be surprised when it does.

[Enscheff]

Buzz Killington reporting for duty as always

Yeah, I should just let the circle jerk continue as usual. No need to let actual intelligent discussion based on logical thought get in the echo chamber, my apologies.

[Enscheff]

I didn’t say that’s how projections work. I’m just saying that it very likely to happen based on history and we shouldn’t be surprised when it does.

Never said you did.

I’m responding in general to the narrative “these projections feel light because I think Riley is going to have a monster season for no reason other than I feel like he will have a fluky rate stat in the next 3 years”.

I apologize if this offends anyone.

[Tapate50]

Yeah, I should just let the circle jerk continue as usual. No need to let actual intelligent discussion based on logical thought get in the echo chamber, my apologies.

Relax white knight of logic

We will survive either way.

[Hulavol]

Spring training better hurry the hell up….

[cajunrevenge]

Those are very nice vague predictions. Where do you think the extra power is going to come from that leads to the .600 SLG? Higher FB rate? Higher exit velocities? More contact? A fluky HR/FB rate for a season?

Or is the prediction just "monster year because I'm a fan of Riley"?




I base it on him entering his physical prime. Most players have a career year from ages 27-29. That's a statistical fact. Doesn't mean it's guaranteed but it's good odds. Riley has put in work to improve his physical condition so I don't think he has physically peaked. I see a combination of a good BABIP season with some good HR/FBI luck. Like his 2021 season with 45 HR and 90 XBH total.

[cajunrevenge]

Never said you did.

I’m responding in general to the narrative “these projections feel light because I think Riley is going to have a monster season for no reason other than I feel like he will have a fluky rate stat in the next 3 years”.

I apologize if this offends anyone.


I saidy reasoning in my post. That he was entering his physical prime when most players have their career year.