Talkin' 'bout all extensions thread

[rico43]

With all these signings having their own thread, it seems a good idea to start an all-extension thread without merging the other six or seven.

So, are the Braves done? Will Heyward (or Justin??) see the light and sign an extensison? What about Chris Johnson? Medlen? Minor?

The Braves have done a remarkable job -- notable because it's got the national medial talking about them for the first time. The only negative I've heard is Keith Olbermann wondering the prudence of signing closers long term in light of the Jonathan Paplebon debacle. Many of you hate my old friend, but he's got a point to discuss if nothing else.

[zitothebrave]

I think that Jason is next most likely to extend. I think we may see Justin sign a 2 year extension to stay around to play with his brother if they both do better next year. Minor who knows, he'll be a costly extension is my guess. Medlen and CJ are gone JMO. Braves may shock us all but I figured they're likely gone given that htey're both older and we only have so much budget.

[AUTiger7222]

With all these signings having their own thread, it seems a good idea to start an all-extension thread without merging the other six or seven.

So, are the Braves done? Will Heyward (or Justin??) see the light and sign an extensison? What about Chris Johnson? Medlen? Minor?

The Braves have done a remarkable job -- notable because it's got the national medial talking about them for the first time. The only negative I've heard is Keith Olbermann wondering the prudence of signing closers long term in light of the Jonathan Paplebon debacle. Many of you hate my old friend, but he's got a point to discuss if nothing else.

I love Olbermann. He speaks his mind and doesn't give a rip if what you think about him.

[Hudson2]

I hope Minor is next.

[Heyward]

DOB said he thinks Minor may be next.

They'll try to keep Jason, but not sure he will sign (not that he doesnt want to be with Atl, he might want to test FA)

Justin solely depends on if Jason signs.

[Heyward]

Dont see us keeping Medlen or CJ long-term though.

[Hudson2]

If he wants to test FA then he doesn't wanna be with ATL

[zitothebrave]

If he wants to test FA then he doesn't wanna be with ATL

:facepalm:

Ignoring that the Braves and Jason have both expressed interest in an extension they're just not together. For real.

[Hudson2]

Like I said. If he goes to FA then he won't be here. Do the head shake all u want. It's true.



:facepalm:

Ignoring that the Braves and Jason have both expressed interest in an extension they're just not together. For real.

[Heyward]

If he wants to test FA then he doesn't wanna be with ATL

LOL, seek help.

[Hudson2]

Seek sucide. An ur retarded if u actually believe that we would outbid other teams in FA.

[Heyward]

Seek sucide. An ur retarded if u actually believe that we would outbid other teams in FA.

** suicide and you're **

[Hudson2]

That to douche

[Heyward]

Seek sucide. An ur retarded if u actually believe that we would outbid other teams in FA.

Never said we would but has a player in any sport tested FA and not signed back with the team before?

But we do have more money than we did this time a year ago.

This shouldnt of been a problem if they would of tried to extend him early in his career when he wouldnt of cost as much as he would now.

[zitothebrave]

That to douche

too

SAV gonna come clean up or can I go off the leash?

[zitothebrave]

** suicide and your **

you're

[Heyward]

That to douche

lol you mad bro?

[Hudson2]

I agree about the signing him early. But if I remember they tried to sign him and Freddie a few times and were turned down. And yeah we have more money bc of the new stadium but we're still not a team that goes into FA and outbids bigger market teams. How many times have we ever done that? I can't recall any.

[Hudson2]

Go off the leash if u want to



too

SAV gonna come clean up or can I go off the leash?

[zitothebrave]

I agree about the signing him early. But if I remember they tried to sign him and Freddie a few times and were turned down. And yeah we have more money bc of the new stadium but we're still not a team that goes into FA and outbids bigger market teams. How many times have we ever done that? I can't recall any.

Derek Lowe being a recent one, Greg Maddux being another one. Well we may not have outbid the Yankmees for Maddux but we got him.

[Heyward]

I agree about the signing him early. But if I remember they tried to sign him and Freddie a few times and were turned down. And yeah we have more money bc of the new stadium but we're still not a team that goes into FA and outbids bigger market teams. How many times have we ever done that? I can't recall any.

No.

They tried after 2012 i believe.

I meant i would of tried to extend him after his first or second year.

[Hudson2]

I'm talkin about letting one of our own players go to FA and resigning them back.

[zitothebrave]

I'm talkin about letting one of our own players go to FA and resigning them back.

Smoltz. Aside from that can't think of many big namers who hit fA that we lost that we really wanted except Glavine. We didn't put much effort into many of the guys we had who hit FA.

[chopdrew]

I still feel like the Braves oughta move CJ while he's at peak value.

[Hudson2]

I'm pretty sure they wanted to keep Sheffield and Tex but knew they couldn't compete financially.

[zitothebrave]

I still feel like the Braves oughta move CJ while he's at peak value.

Problem is we have almost literally no one else to play 3B. Only FA out there is Placido Polanco, who's literally older than dirt. Our options in the upper minors aren't promising at all. Only way we could move him is if TLS or Uggla can play 3B and that only works out for us if Uggla hits.

Only way for the Braves to make that move is if we get a 3B prospect type. Only way we can trade Johnson is if we make a move where he's part of a 3 way deal and we bring back a blocked prospect. Something crazy like say Johnson and someone for a starter and some prosects, then Medlen to the D-Bags for Owings. Though Towers is impossible to deal with.

[zitothebrave]

I'm pretty sure they wanted to keep Sheffield and Tex but knew they couldn't compete financially.

Tex was gone, and Sheffield I recall us not trying too hard. Sure we would love to compete for players, but unlike those guys we have a much better shot of keeping Jason as he's not (right now) an MVP level player like those guys were close to.

[Knucksie]

They've already sent a message to players, who perform (or will perform) that they're wanted and can offer the security of a LT deal. Minor probably would be the next candidate, and would likely seem open to the possibility. Let's not expect too much though. A lot's been accomplished over the last couple of weeks. So, maybe something else is still brewing, but don't be surprised if that business is finished for the time being.

[cajunrevenge]

I find it funny that these extensions have raised the optimisim about the upcoming season 10 fold when these extensions have no effect on the 2014 team.

[GovClintonTyree]

Yeah, I've been sportin' a woody for two weeks now. I can't believe they've executed this plan so flawlessly and that so many players have been willing to play ball, as it were. I'd keep going and get Minor and Medlen in.

[GovClintonTyree]

Problem is we have almost literally no one else to play 3B. Only FA out there is Placido Polanco, who's literally older than dirt. Our options in the upper minors aren't promising at all. Only way we could move him is if TLS or Uggla can play 3B and that only works out for us if Uggla hits.

Only way for the Braves to make that move is if we get a 3B prospect type. Only way we can trade Johnson is if we make a move where he's part of a 3 way deal and we bring back a blocked prospect. Something crazy like say Johnson and someone for a starter and some prosects, then Medlen to the D-Bags for Owings. Though Towers is impossible to deal with.

I think CJ is one of those quality players you keep around and splice in between the stars. I like him a lot. I recognize his limitations, but he does a lot for the club. Especially hitting .320.

[AUTiger7222]

Derek Lowe being a recent one, Greg Maddux being another one. Well we may not have outbid the Yankmees for Maddux but we got him.

If I remember correctly Maddux choose a little less and picked the Braves over the Yankees, the same thing Smoltz did when he was a FA after the 1996 season.

[AUTiger7222]

Smoltz. Aside from that can't think of many big namers who hit fA that we lost that we really wanted except Glavine. We didn't put much effort into many of the guys we had who hit FA.

Exactly. All the guys, well most of the gius, Hudson, McCann, Andruw, Glavine, Lopez, Sheffield, Drew, ect., that the Braves let go to FA they wanted to keep but not enough to try to outbid other teams to keep them.

[AUTiger7222]

I find it funny that these extensions have raised the optimisim about the upcoming season 10 fold when these extensions have no effect on the 2014 team.

Yeah that's pretty freaking funny.

[nsacpi]

Let's take a look at a hypothetical roster and payroll for 2017, the year the move to Cobb county is scheduled for.

Minor (12M, last arb year)
Teheran (6.3M)
Wood (4M, first arb year)
2 other starters at minimum (total 1M)
Total for starters: 23.3M

Kimbrel (13M)
Avilan (3M, 2nd arb year)
5 other relievers at minimum (total 2.5M)
Total for pen: 18.5M, Total pitching (41.8M)

C Gattis (7M, 2nd arb year)
1B Freeman (20.5M)
2B TBD (0.5M)
SS Simmons ((8M)
3B TBD (0.5M)
RF Heyward (22M, new contract)
CF BJ (17.2M, last year)
LF TBD (0.5)
Total lineup: 76.2M

Bench (4M)

Grand total: 122M

Conclusions:
1) If the farm system remains productive and generates the players I have filled in at minimum salaries, we can sign Heyward for something in the 22-25M/year range and remain under 125M.

2) If the Braves play on a payroll of 120M or less in 2017, we probably can't afford Heyward without moving a significant contract.

3) To be able to afford both Heyward and Justin Upton (or similar players at free agent prices), payroll would have to move above 140M by 2017.

[Hawk]

I think a $112MM payroll in 2017 is fairly low ... and doesn't seem to be accounting for a wide range of factors; salary inflation, revenue sharing, increased Cobb revenues.

As I iterated in another thread, it would not surprise me to be well over $125MM by that time -- especially if the team performs well in 2014/15/16.

Also, assuming Heyward resigns, it's possible the team structures his contract to be slightly more backloaded (seen with Chipper, BJ, Hudson's first extension) -- which could provide the flexibility to retain a Justin Upton or sign a David Price. Of course, that's also assuming the 'dynamic young core' remains healthy and happy.

It's almost too early to begin to predict (yet impossible not to wonder about), considering we don't even know the 2014 payroll yet with Minor possibly being the next to ink.

[zitothebrave]

I think a $112MM payroll in 2017 is fairly low ... and doesn't seem to be accounting for a wide range of factors; salary inflation, revenue sharing, increased Cobb revenues.

As I iterated in another thread, it would not surprise me to be well over $125MM by that time -- especially if the team performs well in 2014/15/16.

Also, assuming Heyward resigns, it's possible the team structures his contract to be slightly more backloaded (seen with Chipper, BJ, Hudson's first extension) -- which could provide the flexibility to retain a Justin Upton or sign a David Price. Of course, that's also assuming the 'dynamic young core' remains healthy and happy.

It's almost too early to begin to predict (yet impossible not to wonder about), considering we don't even know the 2014 payroll yet with Minor possibly being the next to ink.

If we manage to lock up for the next 4-5 years Minor and Heyward, hide yo wife hide yo kids...

[AUTiger7222]

If we manage to lock up for the next 4-5 years Minor and Heyward, hide yo wife hide yo kids...

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSEmIkM5px8mcT0VqsKbcqwIHdwBhi9u dhmaNclWHNbX9MAN9Q0ig

[GovClintonTyree]

Let's take a look at a hypothetical roster and payroll for 2017, the year the move to Cobb county is scheduled for.

Minor (12M, last arb year)
Teheran (6.3M)
Wood (4M, first arb year)
2 other starters at minimum (total 1M)
Total for starters: 23.3M

Kimbrel (13M)
Avilan (3M, 2nd arb year)
5 other relievers at minimum (total 2.5M)
Total for pen: 18.5M, Total pitching (41.8M)

C Gattis (7M, 2nd arb year)
1B Freeman (20.5M)
2B TBD (0.5M)
SS Simmons ((8M)
3B TBD (0.5M)
RF Heyward (22M, new contract)
CF BJ (17.2M, last year)
LF TBD (0.5)
Total lineup: 76.2M

Bench (4M)

Grand total: 122M

Conclusions:
1) If the farm system remains productive and generates the players I have filled in at minimum salaries, we can sign Heyward for something in the 22-25M/year range and remain under 125M.

2) If the Braves play on a payroll of 120M or less in 2017, we probably can't afford Heyward without moving a significant contract.

3) To be able to afford both Heyward and Justin Upton (or similar players at free agent prices), payroll would have to move above 140M by 2017.

Thanks for taking a shot at laying this out. I like most of your thoughts. My only difference is that I think they should and will go deeper locking in pitching. I've heard your "laddering new arms" thesis and while I like the idea of cost controlled pitching, I don't think even a great organization can count on being able to sub in the next group of arms for Beachy and Medlen (for instance). For all the kudos we got over the years for developing starting pitching, it was a bit illusory since it was Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz - not to mention, Maddux was a signing and Smoltz was a trade. Really, the only top drawer starter we developed and kept during The Streak was Millwood.

So I think the rotation is more costly than what you're projecting. And I think, given the deal they just gave Teheran and rumblings of the one that might be coming with Minor, that Frank considers young starting pitching part of the core, too.

A work in progress. I love it! Locking down your own young players is so much more exciting and fulfilling than buying overpriced free agents. Wanna bet the Yanks waste a pile of money signing McCann? We get more out of Simmons than the Mariners get out of Cano?

[nsacpi]

I think a $112MM payroll in 2017 is fairly low ...

I fixed an addition mistake. The total is 122 not 112 in the scenario I sketched out. I wish it were 112.

[nsacpi]

It's almost too early to begin to predict (yet impossible not to wonder about), considering we don't even know the 2014 payroll yet with Minor possibly being the next to ink.

If Minor inked an extension, I don't think much would change the 2017 scenario I laid out. But it would have implications for years beyond. It would push us to 135-140M in 2018, even with BJ's contract expiring.

[jason27nc]

I'm telling you guys the Braves are playing the Heyward thing the right way. I believe they seen what they thought they had in him last year until the freakish injuries slowed him down. I believe they wanted to see him do his thing for an entire year before committing to him long term. I thought this at the time of the two year deal and I think all of these long term deals that have been done solidifies that opinion even more. If Heyward plays at the level he is capable then next year at this time he will be locked up for a long long time. Go Braves!!!!!!

[nsacpi]

I'm telling you guys the Braves are playing the Heyward thing the right way. I believe they seen what they thought they had in him last year until the freakish injuries slowed him down. I believe they wanted to see him do his thing for an entire year before committing to him long term. I thought this at the time of the two year deal and I think all of these long term deals that have been done solidifies that opinion even more. If Heyward plays at the level he is capable then next year at this time he will be locked up for a long long time. Go Braves!!!!!!

I agree. If he puts up a 5 WAR season, he'll get paid 22-25M/year, a bit more than Freddie. And that'll take us to a payroll of about 125M by 2017. Braves execs have indicated that the new stadium will produce an increase in revenues and payroll, but no one has ventured an estimate. I think 125M is a reasonable guess for 2017, but it is nothing more than that. If that number is correct, however, signing Heyward will probably preclude any significant additional moves (unless we move someone with a significant contract).

[AUTiger7222]

Thanks for taking a shot at laying this out. I like most of your thoughts. My only difference is that I think they should and will go deeper locking in pitching. I've heard your "laddering new arms" thesis and while I like the idea of cost controlled pitching, I don't think even a great organization can count on being able to sub in the next group of arms for Beachy and Medlen (for instance). For all the kudos we got over the years for developing starting pitching, it was a bit illusory since it was Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz - not to mention, Maddux was a signing and Smoltz was a trade. Really, the only top drawer starter we developed and kept during The Streak was Millwood.

So I think the rotation is more costly than what you're projecting. And I think, given the deal they just gave Teheran and rumblings of the one that might be coming with Minor, that Frank considers young starting pitching part of the core, too.

A work in progress. I love it! Locking down your own young players is so much more exciting and fulfilling than buying overpriced free agents. Wanna bet the Yanks waste a pile of money signing McCann? We get more out of Simmons than the Mariners get out of Cano?

Agreed. All one needs to do is look and see how Chuck James, Kyle Davies, Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton, Anthony Lerew, ect. all bombed to see that a whole wave of starting pitchers can indeed all bomb and not pan out and how it can immediately leave a negative effect on your team.

[AUTiger7222]

I'm telling you guys the Braves are playing the Heyward thing the right way. I believe they seen what they thought they had in him last year until the freakish injuries slowed him down. I believe they wanted to see him do his thing for an entire year before committing to him long term. I thought this at the time of the two year deal and I think all of these long term deals that have been done solidifies that opinion even more. If Heyward plays at the level he is capable then next year at this time he will be locked up for a long long time. Go Braves!!!!!!

Exactly. Heyward will be with the Braves for a long-time either way. If he performs this year and stays on the field for 150 games then he gets paid major bucks. If he doesn't then the Braves get a major discount on him. It's a win-win deal for both sides by playing out this year and talking next off-season.

[nsacpi]

Agreed. All one needs to do is look and see how Chuck James, Kyle Davies, Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton, Anthony Lerew, ect. all bombed to see that a whole wave of starting pitchers can indeed all bomb and not pan out and how it can immediately leave a negative effect on your team.

There is risk all around. Established starters get hurt or decline.

There are data on the success/bust rate of pitching prospects. You listed some of the busts. But in general if you are looking prospects of the caliber of Sims, Hursh, Cabrera, Graham, Hale, Parsons, Martin about 20-30% will pan out. I think it is a reasonable operating assumption that we will generate two major league starters from the current group of prospects. Failure to regularly replenish your team with younger cheaper players is what leads the kind of situations that a team like the Phillies is facing. Except we wouldn't have the financial resources to try to paper things over like the Phillies are trying to do.

[50PoundHead]

I'm pretty sure they wanted to keep Sheffield and Tex but knew they couldn't compete financially.

We could have easily kept Sheffield. I think not re-signing him ranks as Schuerholz' biggest single mistake, and that includes the Texeira deal.

[Hawk]

We could have easily kept Sheffield. I think not re-signing him ranks as Schuerholz' biggest single mistake, and that includes the Texeira deal.

Agreed, and the domino effect was equally as lethal as the Tex trade.

JD Drew
Adam Wainright

:facepalm:

[50PoundHead]

Problem is we have almost literally no one else to play 3B. Only FA out there is Placido Polanco, who's literally older than dirt. Our options in the upper minors aren't promising at all. Only way we could move him is if TLS or Uggla can play 3B and that only works out for us if Uggla hits.

Only way for the Braves to make that move is if we get a 3B prospect type. Only way we can trade Johnson is if we make a move where he's part of a 3 way deal and we bring back a blocked prospect. Something crazy like say Johnson and someone for a starter and some prosects, then Medlen to the D-Bags for Owings. Though Towers is impossible to deal with.

I don't know if either Uggla or La Stella could play 3B. Uggla played some 3B in the minors, but it's harder to hide a guy at 3B than it is at 2B and, let's face it, Uggla plays "bat." I generally agree with the sentiment. There was obviously a reason why they tried Terdoslavich at 3B in Gwinnett a couple years ago, but that experiment failed. No one knows if Salcedo or Kubitza is going to develop and those guys are both probably two years away. That would require us to scour the high minors and big league benches for someone to fill in around the core. For some reason, good utility guys who play an adequate 3B and can hit are difficult to find.

Agree that Polanco is not an answer to any serious question.

[nsacpi]

I don't know if either Uggla or La Stella could play 3B. Uggla played some 3B in the minors, but it's harder to hide a guy at 3B than it is at 2B and, let's face it, Uggla plays "bat." I generally agree with the sentiment. There was obviously a reason why they tried Terdoslavich at 3B in Gwinnett a couple years ago, but that experiment failed. No one knows if Salcedo or Kubitza is going to develop and those guys are both probably two years away. That would require us to scour the high minors and big league benches for someone to fill in around the core. For some reason, good utility guys who play an adequate 3B and can hit are difficult to find.

Agree that Polanco is not an answer to any serious question.

Pena is our backup third baseman. If Chris Johnson was out for a while, we would probably platoon someone with Pena at third. Maybe Pastornicky. Salcedo and Tyler Greene would be a couple other possibilities.

[AUTiger7222]

There is risk all around. Established starters get hurt or decline.

There are data on the success/bust rate of pitching prospects. You listed some of the busts. But in general if you are looking prospects of the caliber of Sims, Hursh, Cabrera, Graham, Hale, Parsons, Martin about 20-30% will pan out. I think it is a reasonable operating assumption that we will generate two major league starters from the current group of prospects. Failure to regularly replenish your team with younger cheaper players is what leads the kind of situations that a team like the Phillies is facing. Except we wouldn't have the financial resources to try to paper things over like the Phillies are trying to do.

I agree. I'm just saying it is possible for an entire wave to bomb. What happened to the Braves, over the course of that 3 year period, when all those guys I mentioned came up and then all bombed was highly unlikely. Odds would have told us that 1 or 2 of them would have turned into successful MLB starting pitchers. But none of them did. Morton has been decent since we shipped him to the Pirates though.

[50PoundHead]

Pena is our backup third baseman. If Chris Johnson was out for a while, we would probably platoon someone with Pena at third. Maybe Pastornicky. Salcedo and Tyler Greene would be a couple other possibilities.

I think the point is we aren't in any position to move Johnson as someone suggested earlier in the thread.

[AUTiger7222]

We could have easily kept Sheffield. I think not re-signing him ranks as Schuerholz' biggest single mistake, and that includes the Texeira deal.

Did the Braves even try to keep Sheff? Sheff was going into his age 35 season too. Sheff's deal with the Yankees was 3 years for $39M at a time when Time Warner was drastically cutting payroll. If you remember, Time Warner cut the Braves payroll from will into the $100Ms all the way down to around $80M over the course of just a few years. How can you say the Braves could have kept Sheffield when the previous offseason they were forced to trade Kevin Millwood because of Greg Maddux accepting arbitration?

[Millwood1Hitter]

The Sheffield negotiations were bizarre to say the least. JS and the organization showed little to no interest and really didn't have any contact at all with Sheff's agent through the initial stages of the FA period. At that point in time, Sheffield was getting little interest from only a few clubs despite having an MVP type season in 2003 with us, probably most teams shyed away because of his past. All the buzz and interest at that point in time was for Vlad Guerrero. With very few options on the table at that time, and JS and Atlanta showing little to no interest, Sheffield actually initiated contact with Steinbrenner about possibly joining the Yanks. The Yanks FO only wanted to do a one year deal at round 13 million, Sheffield refused, but Steinbrenner interveined and upped the ante and offered him 3 years 39 million. While the Yanks and Sheffield were in the final stages of negotiations and it was apparent that Sheffield was going to go to New York, basically everything was agreed to except Sheff signing on the dotted line, JS swoped in and offered Sheff a 4 year 40 million dollar contract.

At that time I was really puzzled once again what JS and the organization had in mind. Did JS at that time finally have a deal in place to move some other players to be able to offer Shef or was it just another PR stunt on JS's part to save face for himself for refusing to keep in contact with Sheff or the organization by saying we gave him a competitive offer blah, blah, blah or did JS move on right away in the FA period thinking that Sheff was definately going to price himself out of what we could afford. Sheff was a great player and had little to no problems in the clubhouse with Bobby at the helm. We had no viable options in place to replace Sheff's productivity, and this prompted us overpaying for JD Drew and the series of events that cost this organization dearly over the next decade.

It's all revisionist history, but I believe if JS would have done his due dillegence at the time and had any type of dialogue at all early on in the FA period, Sheff wanted to and probably would have stayed with us and settled on a deal somewhere in between what our offer was and what the Yanks deal was. (Say 3 years, 36 million)

[50PoundHead]

The Sheffield negotiations were bizarre to say the least. JS and the organization showed little to no interest and really didn't have any contact at all with Sheff's agent through the initial stages of the FA period. At that point in time, Sheffield was getting little interest from only a few clubs despite having an MVP type season in 2003 with us, probably most teams shyed away because of his past. All the buzz and interest at that point in time was for Vlad Guerrero. With very few options on the table at that time, and JS and Atlanta showing little to no interest, Sheffield actually initiated contact with Steinbrenner about possibly joining the Yanks. The Yanks FO only wanted to do a one year deal at round 13 million, Sheffield refused, but Steinbrenner interveined and upped the ante and offered him 3 years 39 million. While the Yanks and Sheffield were in the final stages of negotiations and it was apparent that Sheffield was going to go to New York, basically everything was agreed to except Sheff signing on the dotted line, JS swoped in and offered Sheff a 4 year 40 million dollar contract.

At that time I was really puzzled once again what JS and the organization had in mind. Did JS at that time finally have a deal in place to move some other players to be able to offer Shef or was it just another PR stunt on JS's part to save face for himself for refusing to keep in contact with Sheff or the organization by saying we gave him a competitive offer blah, blah, blah or did JS move on right away in the FA period thinking that Sheff was definately going to price himself out of what we could afford. Sheff was a great player and had little to no problems in the clubhouse with Bobby at the helm. We had no viable options in place to replace Sheff's productivity, and this prompted us overpaying for JD Drew and the series of events that cost this organization dearly over the next decade.

It's all revisionist history, but I believe if JS would have done his due dillegence at the time and had any type of dialogue at all early on in the FA period, Sheff wanted to and probably would have stayed with us and settled on a deal somewhere in between what our offer was and what the Yanks deal was. (Say 3 years, 36 million)

That's pretty much as I remember it and you have more details than I recall. The "lousy economics of baseball" was Schuerholz' mantra during that little stretch and he didn't bother offering Sheffield arbitration, which was totally illogical if he wasn't going to make an honest effort to sign him. I thought the Braves' last offer was for 3 years and about a million per year less than the Yankees. I was under the impression that Schuerholz believed that whatever his offer, the Yankees would go a million or two more. He didn't push the issue with Sheffield at all.

[The Chosen One]

I wonder what JS would think about the economics of baseball today.

[AUTiger7222]

The Sheffield negotiations were bizarre to say the least. JS and the organization showed little to no interest and really didn't have any contact at all with Sheff's agent through the initial stages of the FA period. At that point in time, Sheffield was getting little interest from only a few clubs despite having an MVP type season in 2003 with us, probably most teams shyed away because of his past. All the buzz and interest at that point in time was for Vlad Guerrero. With very few options on the table at that time, and JS and Atlanta showing little to no interest, Sheffield actually initiated contact with Steinbrenner about possibly joining the Yanks. The Yanks FO only wanted to do a one year deal at round 13 million, Sheffield refused, but Steinbrenner interveined and upped the ante and offered him 3 years 39 million. While the Yanks and Sheffield were in the final stages of negotiations and it was apparent that Sheffield was going to go to New York, basically everything was agreed to except Sheff signing on the dotted line, JS swoped in and offered Sheff a 4 year 40 million dollar contract.

At that time I was really puzzled once again what JS and the organization had in mind. Did JS at that time finally have a deal in place to move some other players to be able to offer Shef or was it just another PR stunt on JS's part to save face for himself for refusing to keep in contact with Sheff or the organization by saying we gave him a competitive offer blah, blah, blah or did JS move on right away in the FA period thinking that Sheff was definately going to price himself out of what we could afford. Sheff was a great player and had little to no problems in the clubhouse with Bobby at the helm. We had no viable options in place to replace Sheff's productivity, and this prompted us overpaying for JD Drew and the series of events that cost this organization dearly over the next decade.

It's all revisionist history, but I believe if JS would have done his due dillegence at the time and had any type of dialogue at all early on in the FA period, Sheff wanted to and probably would have stayed with us and settled on a deal somewhere in between what our offer was and what the Yanks deal was. (Say 3 years, 36 million)

Goodness your memory is insane. But I actually now remember that it was Sheff that reached out to the Yankees and The Boss. JS let his own pride get in the way the last few years he was GM and he actually hurt the Braves a lot.

[Millwood1Hitter]

JS's pride was hurt after losing AROD at the last minute to Texas and the Maddux-Millwood fiasco and basically he had the attitude that he was not going to deal and have dialect with agents unless the players initiated the contact and interest. And JS was bound and determined to do whatever it took to put competitive teams on the field and stick it to those agents.

While the economics certainly changed at that time, with player salaries reaching astronomical values at that time along with the Braves financial constraints, we had very few negotiations with FAs during that period of time but lots of players were acquired via trades.

Who was our biggest FA signee during that period? Paul byrd, John Thomson, Roberto Hernandez, Jordan, Mondesi?

Meanwhile Drew, King, Soriano, Gonzalez, Kolb, Wickman, Reitsma, Renteria, Mercker, Ortiz, Hampton, Hudson, Baez and others were acquired via trades for minor leaguers.

JS made no attempt to negotiate or keep our own FAs from Sheffield, Lopez, Glavine, Remlinger, Drew, Druw, and Furcal. The only ones that were retained in that period was Smoltz, Holmes, Franco, and Chippers and Andruws extension as well as Hudson's extension when he was acquired.

JS was horrible during this time and a weak NL east filled with incompetent front offices and the baby Braves saved JSs face more than anything.

[Mrs. Meta]

All these posts make me wanna ask, was JS even that good of a GM? Hah...:Alone:

[Millwood1Hitter]

Good GM, yes. Great GM, no. Overrated, absolutely.

[GovClintonTyree]

I agree. I'm just saying it is possible for an entire wave to bomb. What happened to the Braves, over the course of that 3 year period, when all those guys I mentioned came up and then all bombed was highly unlikely. Odds would have told us that 1 or 2 of them would have turned into successful MLB starting pitchers. But none of them did. Morton has been decent since we shipped him to the Pirates though.

You bet it's possible. And having as many young pitchers with game as we have is lightning in a bottle and we should pay them, too.

nsacpi, if the payroll goes to $140-150m, does that change your opinion?

[GovClintonTyree]

All these posts make me wanna ask, was JS even that good of a GM? Hah...:Alone:

I wonder about that. At the end he deviated from his plans and made some poor decisions. Still did a lot right for a long time.

[AUTiger7222]

JS's pride was hurt after losing AROD at the last minute to Texas and the Maddux-Millwood fiasco and basically he had the attitude that he was not going to deal and have dialect with agents unless the players initiated the contact and interest. And JS was bound and determined to do whatever it took to put competitive teams on the field and stick it to those agents.

While the economics certainly changed at that time, with player salaries reaching astronomical values at that time along with the Braves financial constraints, we had very few negotiations with FAs during that period of time but lots of players were acquired via trades.

Who was our biggest FA signee during that period? Paul byrd, John Thomson, Roberto Hernandez, Jordan, Mondesi?

Meanwhile Drew, King, Soriano, Gonzalez, Kolb, Wickman, Reitsma, Renteria, Mercker, Ortiz, Hampton, Hudson, Baez and others were acquired via trades for minor leaguers.

JS made no attempt to negotiate or keep our own FAs from Sheffield, Lopez, Glavine, Remlinger, Drew, Druw, and Furcal. The only ones that were retained in that period was Smoltz, Holmes, Franco, and Chippers and Andruws extension as well as Hudson's extension when he was acquired.

JS was horrible during this time and a weak NL east filled with incompetent front offices and the baby Braves saved JSs face more than anything.

Exactly. The NL East was so bad that the Braves won the division in 2001 with just 88 wins. 88 wins 99.5% of the time has you sitting at home watching October. Although the division was pretty good in 2002. The Expos finished last and had 81 wins.

[AUTiger7222]

You bet it's possible. And having as many young pitchers with game as we have is lightning in a bottle and we should pay them, too.

nsacpi, if the payroll goes to $140-150m, does that change your opinion?

Agreed. I want Minor to get paid. And I wish Beachy wasn't such a question mark or I would pay him right now too.

[Braves1976]

As far as who I expect to sign an extension next, my guess based on reports is Mike Minor. It also seems Heyward will be extended at least through our first season in Cobb too. But that seems more likely to happen next off-season.

[Braves1976]

And I wish Beachy wasn't such a question mark or I would pay him right now too.

Same here, I am probably higher on Beachy than most around here. If he proves healthy and pitches like he can again, then I'd seek to extend him before I would Medlen. However, I agree with the Braves apparent plan of looking to extend Minor next among starters. And I understand we cannot and likely shouldn't extend them all. Minor being the youngest among the three is in his favor too.

[AUTiger7222]

Same here, I am probably higher on Beachy than most around here. If he proves healthy and pitches like he can again, then I'd seek to extend him before I would Medlen. However, I agree with the Braves apparent plan of looking to extend Minor next among starters. And I understand we cannot and likely shouldn't extend them all. Minor being the youngest among the three is in his favor too.

Medlen I doubt sees an extension as close to 30 as he is.

[Heyward]

I like Beachy but we cant extend EVERYONE lol.

Minor is the most likely one to extend, hopefully before Opening Day.

They'll talk with Heyward about an extension, i'll believe it if pin hits paper though.

[Gary82]

hilarious comment on talking chop.


 The only thing left to extend
is Chris Johnson’s range.

by Dan Uggla's Forearm on Feb 21, 2014 | 3:38 PM reply

[The Chosen One]

Exactly. The NL East was so bad that the Braves won the division in 2001 with just 88 wins. 88 wins 99.5% of the time has you sitting at home watching October. Although the division was pretty good in 2002. The Expos finished last and had 81 wins.

You disrespect Vinny Castilla. One of our biggest FA seasons

[nsacpi]

You bet it's possible. And having as many young pitchers with game as we have is lightning in a bottle and we should pay them, too.

nsacpi, if the payroll goes to $140-150m, does that change your opinion?

If it goes to 140-150M, we have the capability of adding one more significant contract (or combination of smaller ones). I would say if the choice is between Justin Upton or Mike Minor to add to the core, I would go with Upton. Reason 1 has to do with less risk with position players generally. Reason 2 has to do with my own assessment of the upside and downside of the particular players in question. Reason 3 has to do with the pitching we have in the minor league pipeline compared with the corner outfielders.

I will say that Reason 3 could be different a year from now. With a strong season in Rome, Victor Reyes could establish himself as the kind of player we want to clear a path to the majors for. So I would be happy to wait a year before making that call.

[zitothebrave]

If it goes to 140-150M, we have the capability of adding one more significant contract (or combination of smaller ones). I would say if the choice is between Justin Upton or Mike Minor to add to the core, I would go with Upton. Reason 1 has to do with less risk with position players generally. Reason 2 has to do with my own assessment of the upside and downside of the particular players in question. Reason 3 has to do with the pitching we have in the minor league pipeline compared with the corner outfielders.

I will say that Reason 3 could be different a year from now. With a strong season in Rome, Victor Reyes could establish himself as the kind of player we want to clear a path to the majors for. So I would be happy to wait a year before making that call.

The other problem with pitchers is more often than position players get career ruining injuries. How many promising pitchers do you need to see go down before you realize there's a mega risk in paying big bucks to pitching. Of course pitching is great and great pitching wins championships, blah blah blah. But it seems like more than half of the FA pitching contracts are bad or wind up bad. While the same isn't quite true of position players. All big contracts are risky, (see Pujols, Albert) but it seems like pitchers are even more risky. Evena guy who rocks most of his contract can wind up out of baseball (Halladay, Roy) and some guys make a killing and are never even close to worth it (Zito, Barry)

By my looking quickly at the WS champs in recent years, it seems like a healthy chunk of their team is made up of young cheap starters. not over paid older guys. Sure there are a few of them in there as well, but it's the minority.

[emk418]

Yea Mike Minor is the next logical choice. Heyward won't happen until midseason or next offseason. I would love to get Minor done before the year.

[GovClintonTyree]

What pitcher signed a deal that included a team option for an additional year at $1m if the pitcher missed significant time with Tommy John or a shoulder?

Since we're getting creative with extensions, that's one way to mitigate risk with a pitcher.

[nsacpi]

I don't think the front office should be in a hurry to extend Minor. We have him for four years. Now if his agent comes in a proposes something very club friendly, sure you do it. But there is no urgency. The heavy lifting is done.

[nsacpi]

What pitcher signed a deal that included a team option for an additional year at $1m if the pitcher missed significant time with Tommy John or a shoulder?

Since we're getting creative with extensions, that's one way to mitigate risk with a pitcher.

Lackey is going to pitch at minimum in 2015. The Padres have a cheap option (4M) on Josh Johnson if he pitches fewer than seven games this year. The Mariners have a 1M option on Felix Hernandez at the end of his contract if he misses a certain amount of time with an elbow injury. There may be other similar clauses.

[skillet]

I don't think the front office should be in a hurry to extend Minor. We have him for four years. Now if his agent comes in a proposes something very club friendly, sure you do it. But there is no urgency. The heavy lifting is done.

I would agree wholeheartedly with this.

[Russ2dollas]

I would agree wholeheartedly with this.

Agree.

I feel like Minor is really good but replaceable. He just seems like the kind of guy the Braves produce consistently. IF he wants to do a team friendly deal, then great. Otherwise I think I'd go through Arb with him.

Extending pitchers is a risk. As good as CK is, that makes me really nervous. Tehran I feel better about b/c of his chances to be an ace or really good 2.

I'd rather save money for Hewyard and potentially JUp (extend through his Bro's contract).

You can't extend everyone, and I feel the best about extending the position guys. They are less risky investments and they produced less frequently by the Braves.

[AUTiger7222]

You disrespect Vinny Castilla. One of our biggest FA seasons

How did I disrespect Vinny Castilla by pointing out how horrible the NL East was most of those years?

[AUTiger7222]

Agree.

I feel like Minor is really good but replaceable. He just seems like the kind of guy the Braves produce consistently. IF he wants to do a team friendly deal, then great. Otherwise I think I'd go through Arb with him.

Extending pitchers is a risk. As good as CK is, that makes me really nervous. Tehran I feel better about b/c of his chances to be an ace or really good 2.

I'd rather save money for Hewyard and potentially JUp (extend through his Bro's contract).

You can't extend everyone, and I feel the best about extending the position guys. They are less risky investments and they produced less frequently by the Braves.

I guess you and I have differencing opinions on Mike Minor. I think Mike Minor is a #1 or #2 starter and definitely worth being extended.

[Heyward]

Agree.

I feel like Minor is really good but replaceable. He just seems like the kind of guy the Braves produce consistently. IF he wants to do a team friendly deal, then great. Otherwise I think I'd go through Arb with him.

Extending pitchers is a risk. As good as CK is, that makes me really nervous. Tehran I feel better about b/c of his chances to be an ace or really good 2.

I'd rather save money for Hewyard and potentially JUp (extend through his Bro's contract).

You can't extend everyone, and I feel the best about extending the position guys. They are less risky investments and they produced less frequently by the Braves.

Minor is hardly replaceable, he's our best lefty since Glavine.

I would agree they dont have to extend him now unless it was uber-team friendly, but wouldnt be the end of the world if they bought out 2-3 FA years.

[Hawk]

I have trouble stomaching fan-run publications, but Baseball Prospectus published an interview with John Hart yesterday that is worthy of reflection:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22868

Below are a few notable blurbs relating specifically to the Braves, but the interview goes into great length on John's philosophies about player development and the creativity required to retain the 'core' in today's market. Worth the read.

BP: You once said that one of the things you had learned as a GM was that "Stability leads to flexibility." You mean that once you have your core locked up, you can count on that amount of money being assigned to that amount of production, and then you can work around that?

JH: It really does. Every organization has a different mindset. I had to be a little more nimble in Cleveland. We maybe traded a few of our guys to gather payroll flexibility in certain points, but the idea of going in is that we can manage this payroll and this roster, and that will also allow us the ability to be creative if we find a free agent that we like. They're our core players, they're our better players and we know what we're paying them. And that does lead to stability.

And I think in this case, every guy that’s been signed here, these are players that you're looking to be stable with and build around them. That gives you the ability to do it, and quite frankly, I think that was a little bit of the mindset as to why these players wanted to sign here. I think Frank did a great job. His strategy was Freeman one, along with Heyward. I think Kimbrel, you read some of his quotes, it was like, ‘This makes sense to me because I know who I'm going to be with. This is showing me, number one that the Braves believe in me, and number two we're going to have a core of good players that are going to grow together.’

BL: Once you get the first deal done, you can use that to convince the next guy that he should stick around.

JH: That's exactly right. I'm going to say this. I think in the case of John and Frank, they watched what happened when McCann hit free agency. They watched Hudson get overpaid. I'm sure they looked up and said, "Nuh-uh, not with this young core..."

[AUTiger7222]

I was fixin' to post that. It's a great read!

[Millwood1Hitter]

Always really like John Hart, thought he did a great job with the resources he had available in Cleveland. Didn't do that great of a job in Texas, but that ownership situation was a huge mess, and prompted him IMO to make some moves that he probably shouldn't have done to win now.

I always thought Johns best asset was his ability to evaluate talent, especially hitters.

[Russ2dollas]

Minor is hardly replaceable, he's our best lefty since Glavine.

I would agree they dont have to extend him now unless it was uber-team friendly, but wouldnt be the end of the world if they bought out 2-3 FA years.

Replaceable...prob not. But I think we could get close. If we have to give somewhere, I'd give on pitchers who are not elite. IMO Minor is very good, but he's not sniffing elite.

But you're right about him being a lefty. If he was a righty then he prob is more replaceable.

[Heyward]

Replaceable...prob not. But I think we could get close. If we have to give somewhere, I'd give on pitchers who are not elite. IMO Minor is very good, but he's not sniffing elite.

But you're right about him being a lefty. If he was a righty then he prob is more replaceable.

Truth be told, there's like 7-10 at most "elite" pitchers.

Maybe he wont get into the Kershaw/Verlander/Felix tier but he could be in the 12-15 range within a few years.

The performance in the playoffs was pretty damn gutsy and showed the talent Mike has.

He's not replaceable by any stretch, not by a wide margin.

[AUTiger7222]

Truth be told, there's like 7-10 at most "elite" pitchers.

Maybe he wont get into the Kershaw/Verlander/Felix tier but he could be in the 12-15 range within a few years.

The performance in the playoffs was pretty damn gutsy and showed the talent Mike has.

He's not replaceable by any stretch, not by a wide margin.

No just that. Against NL playoff teams Minor posted a 5-0 record with an ERA under 2. Dude raises up his level in big games.

[NinersSBChamps]

Alright what would you guys pay Minor to stay with the Braves?

[nsacpi]

Alright what would you guys pay Minor to stay with the Braves?

I think Minor will sustain a 3.5 WAR per season level over the next five or six years if he stays health. Given injury risks, in the open market that needs to be discounted about 10%, so his market price would be that of a 3 WAR pitcher. At 6M per WAR, his market price is 18M/year.

The way arbitration works, this means he makes 3.85M in 2014, 7M in 2015, 12 M in 2016, 15M in 2017 if he goes to arbitration every year. A total of about 38 M in 4 arb years. If we want to pay for 2 free agent years they are worth 18M per year.

Let's say we want to sign him for 2015-2019, a five year extension. His market value those five years are 7M, 12M, 15M, 18M, 18M or a total of 70M.

The guys we have signed so far have given us a discount equivalent to about half a win per year. I think we are at the point where we can ask for a bigger discount. Say the equivalent of a win per year or 30M over five years. So if Minor's reps agree to 40M over the 2015-2019 period, I'd do it. That's the kind of discount I would consider in his case.

[AUTiger7222]

Alright what would you guys pay Minor to stay with the Braves?

My first offer would be 6 years for $90M and go negotiate from there. That's an AAV of $15M per season.

[nsacpi]

My first offer would be 6 years for $90M and go negotiate from there. That's an AAV of $15M per season.

Way too high. We're talking zero discount here. What you are proposing is what he would get if he went to arbitration each year and then hit free agency.

[AUTiger7222]

Way too high. We're talking zero discount here. What you are proposing is what he would get if he went to arbitration each year and then hit free agency.

Well I was trying to be realistic with what he might agree to considering the deal Homer Bailey just got.

[thewupk]

Alright what would you guys pay Minor to stay with the Braves?

Something realistically after this year would be 5/68 if he posts another 3-4 WAR season in 2014.

2015: 27 - 7.5
2016: 28 - 10.5
2017: 29 - 14.5
2018: 30 - 16.5
2019: 31 - 17
2020: 32 - 17 (option) 2 buyout

It sucks that Minor is a super 2. That jacks his arby prices up quite a bit. Of course what I suggested be undershooting it if salaries continue to inflate at the rate their going.

[skillet]

Alright what would you guys pay Minor to stay with the Braves?

2014 - $4MM
2015 - $6MM
2016 - $8MM
2017 - $10MM
2018 - $12MM
2019 - $13MM

For a 6 year, $53MM deal. If he would take that deal I would do it, if not I'd go year to year.

[skillet]

Something realistically after this year would be 5/68 if he posts another 3-4 WAR season in 2014.

2015: 27 - 7.5
2016: 28 - 10.5
2017: 29 - 14.5
2018: 30 - 16.5
2019: 31 - 17
2020: 32 - 17 (option) 2 buyout

It sucks that Minor is a super 2. That jacks his arby prices up quite a bit. Of course what I suggested be undershooting it if salaries continue to inflate at the rate their going.

There's no way in heck I'd offer near that much.

[thewupk]

There's no way in heck I'd offer near that much.

Then you aren't going to sign him. If Minor duplicates his 2013 year then he worth a lot more then 12-13 million in his free agency years. Bailey just got 19 million for his free agency years. He's also just one year from hitting free agency. Minor would be 3 years so you would pay a tad bit less in his free agency years.

[skillet]

Then you aren't going to sign him. If Minor duplicates his 2013 year then he worth a lot more then 12-13 million in his free agency years. Bailey just got 19 million for his free agency years. He's also just one year from hitting free agency. Minor would be 3 years so you would pay a tad bit less in his free agency years.

Then I wouldn't sign him. There's no reason at this point, when we still have him under control for 4 more years, to offer him a premium, best case scenario for him deal at this stage. Why would we do that?

[thewupk]

Then I wouldn't sign him. There's no reason at this point, when we still have him under control for 4 more years, to offer him a premium, best case scenario for him deal at this stage. Why would we do that?

To keep him long term. You aren't going to be able to low ball players like that anymore. Look at the contract Freeman got. It's exactly like this what I proposed for Minor. To get any sort of real discount on a players free agency years you will need to sign them a year or two after they have been in the majors like we did with Julio and Simmons.

And if you let him go year to year then there is virtually no way to keep him long term without paying then current market value which will likely be higher.

[nsacpi]

Well I was trying to be realistic with what he might agree to considering the deal Homer Bailey just got.

We don't want to go into Homer Bailey territory. There is no reason to.

[nsacpi]

Something realistically after this year would be 5/68 if he posts another 3-4 WAR season in 2014.

2015: 27 - 7.5
2016: 28 - 10.5
2017: 29 - 14.5
2018: 30 - 16.5
2019: 31 - 17
2020: 32 - 17 (option) 2 buyout

It sucks that Minor is a super 2. That jacks his arby prices up quite a bit. Of course what I suggested be undershooting it if salaries continue to inflate at the rate their going.

Also too high. Though the option for 2020 provides some value.

[nsacpi]

To keep him long term. You aren't going to be able to low ball players like that anymore. Look at the contract Freeman got. It's exactly like this what I proposed for Minor. To get any sort of real discount on a players free agency years you will need to sign them a year or two after they have been in the majors like we did with Julio and Simmons.

And if you let him go year to year then there is virtually no way to keep him long term without paying then current market value which will likely be higher.

Freeman imo projects to be 1 WAR per year better than Minor. So if you want to use Freeman as a baseline (and I actually think we should require a bigger discount from Minor but lets set that aside) you need to scale down Freeman's free agency years salary down by about 6M per year to get comparable value with Minor. In addition, the numbers you propose in Minor's last arb year just looks to high relative to his open market value.

[nsacpi]

2014 - $4MM
2015 - $6MM
2016 - $8MM
2017 - $10MM
2018 - $12MM
2019 - $13MM

For a 6 year, $53MM deal. If he would take that deal I would do it, if not I'd go year to year.

This is much more reasonable, but at the outer limits of what the club should consider.

[thewupk]

Freeman imo projects to be 1 WAR per year better than Minor. So if you want to use Freeman as a baseline (and I actually think we should require a bigger discount from Minor but lets set that aside) you need to scale down Freeman's free agency years salary down by about 6M per year to get comparable value with Minor. In addition, the numbers you propose in Minor's last arb year just looks to high relative to his open market value.

Freeman is making 21.3 million in FA. In my proposed Minor deal he would be making 17.75 or 16.83 depending on the option. If Freeman is a 1 WAR better then 3.5 -4.5 less for Minor isn't that much of a reach. Especially when it's signed a year later. Salaries have been escalating that quickly the past couple of years. Generally adding 1 million per WAR each year the last 2 years. I would normally agree the last arb year would be too high but with him being a super 2 it's going to rise that quickly.

[nsacpi]

Freeman is making 21.3 million in FA. In my proposed Minor deal he would be making 17.75 or 16.83 depending on the option. If Freeman is a 1 WAR better then 3.5 -4.5 less for Minor isn't that much of a reach. Especially when it's signed a year later. Salaries have been escalating that quickly the past couple of years. Generally adding 1 million per WAR each year the last 2 years. I would normally agree the last arb year would be too high but with him being a super 2 it's going to rise that quickly.

I don't disagree with the 3.5 WAR for Minor if he is healthy. But with pitchers, there needs to be more of a discount because of higher injury risk. Also Minor is four years away from free agency while Freeman is only three, although as you note that would not be the case if the deal is signed a year from now. Finally, our farm system is much deeper in pitching than first baseman, which also calls for a bigger discount. So as I noted, we should be asking Minor for a significantly larger discount than we asked from Freeman.

[thewupk]

I don't disagree with the 3.5 WAR for Minor if he is healthy. But with pitchers, there needs to be more of a discount because of higher injury risk. Also Minor is four years away from free agency while Freeman is only three, although as you note that would not be the case if the deal is signed a year from now. Finally, our farm system is much deeper in pitching than first baseman, which also calls for a bigger discount. So as I noted, we should be asking Minor for a significantly larger discount than we asked from Freeman.

I can see that. And I think it's likely that the Braves either try to get a really team friendly deal or just play it out year by year. Minor would still be here in 2017 when then new stadium opened which is what I really think the Braves are trying to do. Keep all of their core for that season at the least. And as you said the Braves have been able to replace starters pretty well for the most part lately. So there is no need to really burden the finances with a market value pitcher if the farm can replace it for similar production. But I honestly don't see Minor going for that if he has another good year after watching Bailey get his huge deal.

[thethe]

I'd like to see Minor stay. It was interesting what Kimbrel said. Hopefully these other guys take slightly less than market value to be apart of the core.

[gtcway]

I'm as happy as the next guy about signing our best young guys to extensions, but there has to be a limit right? The more young guys we sign, the greater the possibility of having bad contracts later on. Let's say we have 7 or 8 of the young guys locked up by next year this time. What happens if 3 of those guys end up with career altering injuries or just plain suck and not get better. We could have around 40-50 million tied up in players who aren't helping the team win.
Yes, the chances of that happening are slim, but you know it could happen.

[Heyward]

Alright what would you guys pay Minor to stay with the Braves?

5 years, 75 million with a 6th year option.

Would take him to age 31 or 32 i think.

[nsacpi]

I'm as happy as the next guy about signing our best young guys to extensions, but there has to be a limit right? The more young guys we sign, the greater the possibility of having bad contracts later on. Let's say we have 7 or 8 of the young guys locked up by next year this time. What happens if 3 of those guys end up with career altering injuries or just plain suck and not get better. We could have around 40-50 million tied up in players who aren't helping the team win.
Yes, the chances of that happening are slim, but you know it could happen.

There is upside and downside to each contract. But as you increase the # of long-term contracts you lose some flexibility.

One thing they've done so far is to stagger when the contracts expire so each year they can half some money coming off the books.

BJ goes through 2017.

Kimbrel goes through 2017 or 2018.

Teheran goes through 2019 or 2020.

Simmons goes through 2020.

Freeman goes through 2021.

If and when they do a long-term deal with Heyward, my guess is it will go a year beyond Freeman's.

[AUTiger7222]

There is upside and downside to each contract. But as you increase the # of long-term contracts you lose some flexibility.

One thing they've done so far is to stagger when the contracts expire so each year they can half some money coming off the books.

BJ goes through 2017.

Kimbrel goes through 2017 or 2018.

Teheran goes through 2019 or 2020.

Simmons goes through 2020.

Freeman goes through 2021.

If and when they do a long-term deal with Heyward, my guess is it will go a year beyond Freeman's.

John Hart said in his interview that you actually gain some flexibility because you know exactly how much money you have committed to certain number of guys over the course of x number of years, that allows you to move guys and money around to fill out your roster each year.

[skillet]

The greatest strength of all these deals is the prime ages of the guys we've locked up.

1. Freeman - 24 through 31
2. Teheran - 23 through 28, option for 29
3. Simmons - 24 through 30
4. Kimbrel - 26 through 29, option for 30

[nsacpi]

John Hart said in his interview that you actually gain some flexibility because you know exactly how much money you have committed to certain number of guys over the course of x number of years, that allows you to move guys and money around to fill out your roster each year.

Up to a point.

Hart also said this:

"You don't want to ever get to where you can't finish the deal on a core player because you're tied down on something that you might be able to fix within."

There are always trade-offs and they get more acute once you get past the guys that are obvious parts of the core. For example, at the point we are at right now, do you lock up Minor or Justin Upton. I think one consideration is to look at what you have on the farm and try to judge which one's departure would be something that "you might be able to fix within" as Hart puts it.

[thewupk]

The greatest strength of all these deals is the prime ages of the guys we've locked up.

1. Freeman - 24 through 31
2. Teheran - 23 through 28, option for 29
3. Simmons - 24 through 30
4. Kimbrel - 26 through 29, option for 30

That's what makes an extension for Minor iffy anyways. He is already under team control through age 29. I think what's more likely is to just see a 3 year deal next year buying out his remaining arby years so we have them at a set cost.

[nsacpi]

That's what makes an extension for Minor iffy anyways. He is already under team control through age 29. I think what's more likely is to just see a 3 year deal next year buying out his remaining arby years so we have them at a set cost.

Good point. Minor had his first full major league season at an older age than the four guys who we extended. You want to extend the guys who hit free agency at a young age. Basically, the guys who played their first full season at age 23 or younger. Wood btw is 23 this season. Minor's first full season was 2012 at age 24. So any extension takes him into his age 30 season and beyond.

[AUTiger7222]

Up to a point.

Hart also said this:

"You don't want to ever get to where you can't finish the deal on a core player because you're tied down on something that you might be able to fix within."

There are always trade-offs and they get more acute once you get past the guys that are obvious parts of the core. For example, at the point we are at right now, do you lock up Minor or Justin Upton. I think one consideration is to look at what you have on the farm and try to judge which one's departure would be something that "you might be able to fix within" as Hart puts it.

Yeah, Justin is more valuable right now than Minor because of what's in the farm system versus what isn't. But I'm one of those guys that will always value pitching over offense because of the playoffs.

[skillet]

http://battingleadoff.com/2014/02/20/extensions-market-efficiency/

Pretty good, simplistic look at the potential value of these extensions, of which I think is at least a decent approximation of value (does not include the Simmons deal). Notice how we might be slightly overpaying in the early years, but have a good bit of surplus value later in the contracts. Also, it doesn't have Teheran's 2020 $12M team option nor Kimbrel's 2018 $13M team option, which if included, would add a lot more surplus value. In this article, it has us saving $70MM over the life of the combined contracts, which as I noted does not include the surplus value of the options.