Talking Chop article on Chris Johnson

[Gary82]

This a good read concerning Chris Johnson. I've always enjoyed the guys at CAC/TC.

http://www.talkingchop.com/2013/7/11/4515378/what-do-the-braves-exactly-have-in-chris-johnson


So the Braves are likely stuck with Chris Johnson for the foreseeable future. But that's not a necessarily a bad thing. As it stands, he's a decent player who is relatively cheap, and he's in his peak years, making a collapse less-likely than if he was older. It's not easy to find guys who give a team positive value.

[thewupk]

I agree. I would keep Johnson through next year and hope you get average production out of him overall then move on for 2015.

[BRule]

I remember when I said Id take Johnson over Prado when the trade happened...good times.

[Gary82]

Prado fWAR -0.2
Johnson fWAR 1.5

I'm surprised at how poorly Prado has been on defense.

[gilesfan]

I don't know what Prados issues are this year. Haven't seen him. I would take him over Johnson though despite Johnson's heater. Johnson is just that bad on defense and when his BABIP normalizes, what are you left with?

[thewupk]

Prado fWAR -0.2
Johnson fWAR 1.5

I'm surprised at how poorly Prado has been on defense.

He has played the bulk of the time at 3rd this year and has a UZR of 1.2 there which is about what you would expect. I think his ratings at other spots are due to a small sample size. He is a better defender in left than his stats have showed but I thought last year and still think this year that his big spike from left last season was due to playing next to Bourn. I've shown where elite center fielders can make their corner mates look that much better.

[CyYoung31]

He has played the bulk of the time at 3rd this year and has a UZR of 1.2 there which is about what you would expect. I think his ratings at other spots are due to a small sample size. He is a better defender in left than his stats have showed but I thought last year and still think this year that his big spike from left last season was due to playing next to Bourn. I've shown where elite center fielders can make their corner mates look that much better.

Andruw is a perfect example of that.

[thewupk]

Andruw is a perfect example of that.

Yeah. A couple years ago I looked at every corner outfielder that he played with in the UZR era and pretty much every one of them posted their highest UZR of while in Atlanta. Andruw truly was the best ever at that position.

[thewupk]

I don't know what Prados issues are this year. Haven't seen him. I would take him over Johnson though despite Johnson's heater. Johnson is just that bad on defense and when his BABIP normalizes, what are you left with?

Someone who is likely around average or maybe a little less than that. Prado is better but Johnson a better fit (for now) due to salary.

[Gary82]

I believe Andrelton Simmons alone has boosted the Braves infield defense to one of the best in the league statistically. It's amazing how one player can have such an impact defensively.

[thewupk]

I believe Andrelton Simmons alone has boosted the Braves infield defense to one of the best in the league statistically. It's amazing how one player can have such an impact defensively.

Oh definitely. Simmons has the 3rd highest UZR in baseball and is blowing everyone away at the SS position.

[nsacpi]

I think most opinions on CJ turn on what a sustainable BABIP is for him. Those who like him point to the fact that he has sustained a .360 BAPIP over 1600 plate appearances. So not some sort of small sample fluke. The skeptics will point out that the number of players who have sustained a BABIP at that level is very small and consists of players a lot faster than Johnson (Joey Votto being a notable exception).

[thewupk]

I think most opinions on CJ turn on what a sustainable BABIP is for him. Those who like him point to the fact that he has sustained the .360 BAPI over 1600 plate appearances. The skeptics will point out that the number of players who have sustained a BABIP at that level is very small and consists of players a lot faster than Johnson.

That is generally the case. However I'm not sure how many players have sustained a line drive % of 24.5 like Chris has. Line drives (especially) and ground balls lead to a higher BABIP than fly balls and that is what Chris does over two thirds of the time. I'm not sure if he can sustain a LD% that high while playing every day but if he does I see no reason he can't maintain a BABIP in the 350's. Again I think he's an above average hitter but his defense is truly awful. If not for that I could see him being here for more than a year or two.

[cajunrevenge]

Heres a question for you, would you trade Johnson right now straight up for Headley?

[CyYoung31]

Heres a question for you, would you trade Johnson right now straight up for Headley?

No question. I wouldn't even shoot.

[Braves1976]

Heres a question for you, would you trade Johnson right now straight up for Headley?

Of course, but no way the Padres would consider that trade. Nice dream though.

[Gary82]

Headley is going to get expensive, and the Padres flat out suck. So, with that in mind, it may be possible to swing a deal with them.

He is having a down year, but I don't know what kind of package the Padres would agree to. His peak WAR is 7 plus, but I think he'd be a 4 to 5 win player looking forward. His defense is good and he has shown he can hit for power.

[Braves1976]

I'm interested in both Headley and Forsythe from the Padres, both can play third and other positions too. They're both not hitting to their potential right now. So this would be a good time to at least buy low on Forsythe. I'd ask about Headley first of course, but depending on the answer go for Forsythe. Forsythe can even play some shortstop if needed. Forsythe is very good vs lefties historically too, which is important when facing tough lefties like Lee and Hamels in the NL East.

[cajunrevenge]

Why does Headley get a pass for his horrible hitting this year. If we traded for him in the offseason and he had hit this poorly for 300 at bats I think posters would be all over him. His career high is .773 OPS outside of 2012. They moved the fences in this year so home park isnt much of an excuse anymore. He is actually hitting better at home.

[Gary82]

His overall value mitigates his offensive inconsistencies. I will say I'm concerned, or unsure of his power. Last year he hit 31 home runs, but before that his high was 12.

To be honest, the more I've looked into him, the less I am interested. His overall value and his defense, along with his awesome production last year makes him desirable, but his production this year along with the fact he is 29 makes me hesitant. I certainly wouldn't give up the farm for him, and I don't really think we would have to.

[Braves1976]

Keep in mind, while Headley isn't hitting his potential right now. He's been great defensively this year so far. His 9 DRS is third best among third baseman in MLB too. He's not Machado great at third base, but he's still been very impressive. He'd also look even better playing next to Simmons.

Simmons great defense is the main reason starting CJ at third hasn't hurt us more. The Braves have the luxury to be able to use two bad defenders at second and third because they have the best shortstop in the game.

[gilesfan]

Why does Headley get a pass for his horrible hitting this year. If we traded for him in the offseason and he had hit this poorly for 300 at bats I think posters would be all over him. His career high is .773 OPS outside of 2012. They moved the fences in this year so home park isnt much of an excuse anymore. He is actually hitting better at home.


-Petco is 29th in park factor this year.

-Headley is coming off a fractured thumb, which can take some time to get back. Fingers/hands/wrists injuries in baseball are terrible.

-Headley's career road numbers are .294/.365/.452...in the last 3 years his road numbers show a .177 iso SLG with an OPS of .854

[cajunrevenge]

Ok maybe I was wrong about park factors but in June he had an Upton-esque sub .600 OPS. His production by month was trending downwards, that makes me doubt the injury recovery excuse. I acknowledge conventional wisdom would be to take Headley but I just find it odd to trade a guy hitting .333 for a guy hitting .233. Johnson was a semi-useful player before this year, he isnt a Charles Thomas kind of situation.

[jpx7]

Johnson was a semi-useful player before this year, he isnt a Charles Thomas kind of situation.

Sure — but as far as this season goes, Johnson still has a moderately-high pumpkin-quotient.

[cajunrevenge]

Right now I am favoring the chariot that hasnt turned into a pumpkin over the pumpkin that hasnt turned into a chariot. Outside of 2012 their OPS's are very similar. Defense favors Headley a lot but that would matter more to me if we didnt have Simmons at SS.

[elmonthc]

Doubt if headley is ever a nrave. I think cj will be a brave again mext uear. Fw and co deserve a lot of credit for wanting him to be included in the deal.

[thewupk]

Ok maybe I was wrong about park factors but in June he had an Upton-esque sub .600 OPS. His production by month was trending downwards, that makes me doubt the injury recovery excuse. I acknowledge conventional wisdom would be to take Headley but I just find it odd to trade a guy hitting .333 for a guy hitting .233. Johnson was a semi-useful player before this year, he isnt a Charles Thomas kind of situation.

A 235 BABIP will do that to anybody. Every other month his BABIP has been 300+ (like it has been for his career) and he's had very good numbers (especially when you look at the park he plays in). For the year his BABIP is around 50 points below his career mark. Everything else like K rate and BB % are in line with his career marks. Correct the BABIP and his numbers once again look great. Many people claimed Mac was done last year when I and others simply stated he was having some major luck issues and he would be back to being great next season. That was the case and will be the case with Headley. He's already doing better in July so I suspect he's over his bad luck spell.