Santana

[VirginiaBrave]

With the comment tonight about how much Erwin is enjoying playing in ATL, anybody think it's possible we extend him if he wins 15-20 games? He and Julio would make a great 1-2 in the future.

[Carp]

Doubtful, as I expect Santana to test FA if he has another great yr. And Atlanta hasn't really shown an interest in resigning their own starting pitchers. Though I wouldn't be opposed to to an extension if were 4 yrs or less and no more than 60 mllion.

[Heyward]

Hard to say, they'd have the money for him if it's somewhere around 3 years, 42-45 million or 4 years, 55-60 mil.

If he looks/wants more, probably not.

[nsacpi]

Depends a on the price. With a pitcher in his 30s I'd look for a substantial discount. If he's willing to sign for 8M per year for 3 years I'd be for it. I doubt he'd be willing to do that.

[yeezus]

I easily give him 3/45, and he may sign it.

[Teheran_49]

Depends a on the price. With a pitcher in his 30s I'd look for a substantial discount. If he's willing to sign for 8M per year for 3 years I'd be for it. I doubt he'd be willing to do that.

No way in hell a pitcher like Ervin will accept 8mm, he's worth 15mm in today's market. He's in the prime stage of his career but I'd be willing to give him 4/60 no way I give him 5 years though. Odds are that Ervin has a career year, he has a lot working his way to set up for a very nice year and pay day.

[yeezus]

He could have a Javy Vazquez type year here.

[50PoundHead]

Looks good so far. I like that he doesn't mess around. I agree with Teheran_49. The market has gone totally nuts for starting pitching. Nolasco got 4/$49 million and that is probably Santana's starting point if he has a solid year.

[thethe]

I'd sign Santana for four more years. I wouldn't do more than 13-15 per year. Just have to hope that the farm produces some hitters because one of Jason/Justin are gone.

[GovClintonTyree]

Depends a on the price. With a pitcher in his 30s I'd look for a substantial discount. If he's willing to sign for 8M per year for 3 years I'd be for it. I doubt he'd be willing to do that.

I understand why you're saying that, but offering a guy half his market value is insulting. So let's just wish Erv well with his new ring, stay the course and just keep bringing up 23 year old $500k pitchers who get guys out.

[thethe]

I understand why you're saying that, but offering a guy half his market value is insulting. So let's just wish Erv well with his new ring, stay the course and just keep bringing up 23 year old $500k pitchers who get guys out.

I think its good to have one reliable innings eater. Santana looks like a sure thing for 200+ for the next few years.

[cajunrevenge]

Remember that time when we were worried if we could re-sign Sheets?

[thethe]

Remember that time when we were worried if we could re-sign Sheets?

You think this is resembles that situation?

[nsacpi]

It could be that we can sign all three of Santana, Heyward and Justin Upton to multi-year deals. If that is the case I have no problem bringing Santana back. But if we have to choose and prioritize I'd put Heyward and Justin ahead of Santana.

[nsacpi]

The five pitchers who have the highest similarity scores to Santana through age 30 are: Brett Meyers, Pat Hentgen, Jaime Navarro, Alex Fernandez and Scott Erickson. I think a good starting point for any analysis of what Santana might be worth would be to look at how those pitchers did from age 32 onward.

[The Chosen One]

Santana has been great this year but I've never thought of him as an ace before this. Don't know if one year is going to work.

[Knucksie]

The draft pick is a sore subject for a lot of clubs. That's why some very respectable FA's have had to wait until almost the last minute to sign. Santana might just find himself in the same situation, next March. He and his agent most certainly would have to consider signing an extenstion as an option.

[nsacpi]

The draft pick is a sore subject for a lot of clubs. That's why some very respectable FA's have had to wait until almost the last minute to sign. Santana might just find himself in the same situation, next March. He and his agent most certainly would have to consider signing an extenstion as an option.

With respect to loss of draft pick, we are essentially in the same boat as other clubs. Signing him to an extension rather than making the qualifying offer also costs us a draft pick.

[sturg33]

I don't see any reason to sign him long term. Offer him the QO, if he accepts it then great. If not, great too, as we get our pick back. Win/Win.

Signing him long term means:

1. We don't get a draft pick
2. We don't keep Upton and Heyward long term (maybe lose both)
3. Risk having another $15M black hole on our team because it won't surprise me if he declines fast an/or gets injured.

[stpeteirish]

Remember that time when we were worried if we could re-sign Sheets?

No

[Hawk]

I have little desire to re-sign Santana, even if he wins 20. He'll be 32 and looking for the last big FA contract of his career. I just don't see a fit. It's not that Atlanta doesn't have the money, but I think there are better ways to invest it.

[Hawk]

2. We don't keep Upton and Heyward long term (maybe lose both)

That's probably not true.

The Braves are kinda flush. (http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/2014/03/02/2981286/braves-revenue-up-36m-last-year.html)

[gilesfan]

2 starts and we are talking about him winning 20 games this year?

[sturg33]

2 starts and we are talking about him winning 20 games this year?

He's no Taylor Jordan

[Enscheff]

I think Wren treats him like he does every other FA player. If he really wants to pitch in Atlanta he will not get top dollar. If he wants top dollar he will be pitching somewhere else. It's really that simple.

After the way this past offseason shook out for Santana with regards to being saddled with a draft pick penalty, he might think long and hard about trying to squeeze every last dollar out of the FA market. He may decide to be filthy rich playing in a place he enjoys rather going through all that stress again trying to become filthy stinking rich.

Medlen and Beachy are quite possibly done in Atlanta, so there is certainly room in the rotation for Santana long term.

[50PoundHead]

The five pitchers who have the highest similarity scores to Santana through age 30 are: Brett Meyers, Pat Hentgen, Jaime Navarro, Alex Fernandez and Scott Erickson. I think a good starting point for any analysis of what Santana might be worth would be to look at how those pitchers did from age 32 onward.

Good point, but I think Santana is a different pitcher than those guys. I don't think he's an ace, but like thethe said, he's a proven innings eater. I don't know what that is worth. It wouldn't have been worth $14 million if the Braves wouldn't have had the extreme need because of Medlen's injury. I'm curious where Santana would have ended up had that not happened and what his contract would have looked like.

Erickson was a total flake who fell off after umps figured out that most of the crap he threw up there wasn't a strike. I've never seen a pitcher given such a generous strike zone as that which was accorded Erickson in 1991 and he still walked 3 guys a game.

[nsacpi]

A lot of guys are innings eaters until they stop being innings eaters.

Santana is probably better than the guys with high similarity scores to him. That would be my guess. But he is not an elite pitcher. He might have a career year this year and look like one. But we have to be careful not to pay him based on a career best season.

[Braves1976]

I hope Santana pitches great, wins 20 and that we offer him arbitration and get our draft pick back. That would be ideal, IMO. I also wouldn't mind him accepting arbitration for another one year deal in that case or similar. But I hardly expect that to happen.

I also don't see it being in our best interest to sign him to the long term deal he's likely to demand.

[yeezus]

2 starts and we are talking about him winning 20 games this year?

See, everyone was having a polite discussion albeit with some disagreements, and then you come in with your usual condescending tone, despite the fact that you have no room to speak in such a way, being who you are.
The only people who should pride themselves on being pricks should at least be intelligent. If you're a prick-moron...bad look.

[nsacpi]

The odd thing is no one said he was going to win 20. Hawk said he didn't want to sign him even if he wins 20. It is twisting things quite a bit to say that we are talking about him winning 20 just based on that comment.

[yeezus]

The odd thing is no one said he was going to win 20. Hawk said he didn't want to sign him even if he wins 20. It is twisting things quite a bit to say that we are talking about him winning 20 just based on that comment.

Some people gotta make themselves feel better by any means.

[cajunrevenge]

You think this is resembles that situation?

I think 2 starts ago the vast majority of people here wouod have been mortified at the prospect of signing Santana long term. Santana isn't likely to take less than 15 million per year on any long term deal unless he regresses back to 2012 form.

[gilesfan]

I'd sign Santana for four more years. I wouldn't do more than 13-15 per year. Just have to hope that the farm produces some hitters because one of Jason/Justin are gone.

A 32 year old with a career 4.16 ERA/4.34 FIP.

At his absolute career year, he's not worth 15 million per year.

[sturg33]

A 32 year old with a career 4.16 ERA/4.34 FIP.

At his absolute career year, he's not worth 15 million per year.

No. We all think he's going to win 20 games. Haven't you been reading the thread?

[thethe]

A 32 year old with a career 4.16 ERA/4.34 FIP.

At his absolute career year, he's not worth 15 million per year.

Have you noticed how contracts are moving in recent years? Its not going to go down for sure.

[nsacpi]

I think 2 starts ago the vast majority of people here wouod have been mortified at the prospect of signing Santana long term. Santana isn't likely to take less than 15 million per year on any long term deal unless he regresses back to 2012 form.

There are some around here who go overboard based on 2 starts or 10 at bats.

[gilesfan]

Have you noticed how contracts are moving in recent years? Its not going to go down for sure.

Inflation isn't a new concept.

[Heyward]

Inflation isn't a new concept.

Not new-new but 15 million these days is like 7-10 million a few years ago.

[gilesfan]

Not new-new but 15 million these days is like 7-10 million a few years ago.

Can you further indulge, Mr. Intelligence?

[50PoundHead]

A 32 year old with a career 4.16 ERA/4.34 FIP.

At his absolute career year, he's not worth 15 million per year.

But it's not what he's worth. It's what he is going to get paid. In today's pitching market, those are two entirely different things.

[Carp]

Depends a on the price. With a pitcher in his 30s I'd look for a substantial discount. If he's willing to sign for 8M per year for 3 years I'd be for it. I doubt he'd be willing to do that.

He turned down like 3/33 or 3/36 from the Twins this past yr. I'd say the odds of him taking a pay cut are zero if he has another yr similar to last yr.

[keithlaw]

His delivery is so smooth

[50PoundHead]

He turned down like 3/33 or 3/36 from the Twins this past yr. I'd say the odds of him taking a pay cut are zero if he has another yr similar to last yr.

I think the Twins only offered him 3/27 or 3/30.

[Carp]

It was actually reported to be 3 yrs and between 30-33 mil according to MLBTR. So we both were kinda right.

[Knucksie]

Stepping away for a while, then reading this article in the print verion this morning, changed my mind.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2014/04/17/atlanta-braves-pitching-julio-teheran-alex-wood-frank-wren-best-era-in-baseball/7845543/

If it's a reasonable deal, then why wouldn't re-signing Santana at least be considered? One way or another, the qualifying offer should be a no-brainer.

This is the part that left an impression:


Oh, and before anyone thinks this is just a two-week fluke, the Braves' pitching may actually be getting better. Starters Mike Minor and Gavin Floyd are scheduled to rejoin the team within a few weeks. And the minor-league system is loaded with Lucas Sims, Jason Hursh, Mauricio Cabrera, Wes Parsons, J.R. Graham and Shae Simmons.

At least one of that group is going to excellent. One or two others will be good to very good major leaguers and the others will be trade fodder, get hurt, or fizzle.

[50PoundHead]

It was actually reported to be 3 yrs and between 30-33 mil according to MLBTR. So we both were kinda right.

I just recall that they low-balled him a bit (or at least I thought they did). It was kind of come and gone up here in the Twin Cities media.

[GovClintonTyree]

Stepping away for a while, then reading this article in the print verion this morning, changed my mind.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2014/04/17/atlanta-braves-pitching-julio-teheran-alex-wood-frank-wren-best-era-in-baseball/7845543/

If it's a reasonable deal, then why wouldn't re-signing Santana at least be considered? One way or another, the qualifying offer should be a no-brainer.

Knucksie, I think because they can get what he gives them for a fraction of the price. They really don't need all those guys to come up aces, only one or two.

Unless we get more than our share of injuries, and maybe we will. I sure don't know why we're the nation's Tommy John Capital.

[Knucksie]

Knucksie, I think because they can get what he gives them for a fraction of the price. They really don't need all those guys to come up aces, only one or two.

Unless we get more than our share of injuries, and maybe we will. I sure don't know why we're the nation's Tommy John Capital.

Let's say, hypothetically, that Santana could be good for 17 wins this season, which is a really good season by current standards. A decent #5 starter will offer maybe 10 wins, more on a better team. So, let's assume that somebody like Graham is ready to make the jump next year. He could conceivably win at least 10 decisions. Continued improvement from Teheran and Wood could help compensate, along with bullpen wins. So, yeah, for the millions of dollars difference in salary, there are other ways to reach the same goal.

[nsacpi]

Let's say, hypothetically, that Santana could be good for 17 wins this season, which is a really good season by current standards. A decent #5 starter will offer maybe 10 wins, more on a better team. So, let's assume that somebody like Graham is ready to make the jump next year. He could conceivably win at least 10 decisions. Continued improvement from Teheran and Wood could help compensate, along with bullpen wins. So, yeah, for the millions of dollars difference in salary, there are other ways to reach the same goal.

The other part of the equation has to do with whether the dollars we might hypothetically spend on Santana might be better spent on long-term deals for Heyward and/or Justin Upton.