Will the real Jason Heyward please stand up?

[Millwood1Hitter]

Who exactly are you? The one that was highly touted as a great prospect that could hit for average, power, and walk like your once in a century rookie campaign

Or

The one that struggles to even hit the most mediocre of fastballs and breaking stuff and strikes out or rolls out to second base every at bat?

We've seen more of the later, and the excuse has always been injury. You've had some Phenominal stretches like after moving to lead off before getting hit in the face.

It's put up or shut up time.

[Heyward]

He's on pace for a 6-WAR season :Alone:

[Millwood1Hitter]

I don't care what the statistics say, he has been awful at the plate.

[Gary82]

He's on pace for a 6-WAR season :Alone:

Is he really? lol

I really wish he would hit, but his defense is great.

[Julio3000]

The real Jason Heyward is Andruw Jones, apparently.

[Gary82]

The real Jason Heyward is Andruw Jones, apparently.

I can live with that.

[gtcway]

I can't verify these numbers, got it from the comments section on ESPN. But if they are accurate, it's worse than I thought.

Jeff Williams - Explain to me again how Heyward will "come around" His career numbers are below average across the board. If you don't believe that, here are his 162 game average numbers for his career:

148 hits, 88 runs, 29 doubles, 4 triples, 22 home runs, 70 RBI, 14 steals, 76 walks, 137 strike outs, .256/.349/.435 (.784 OPS)

Even if you wanted to argue those numbers aren't "bad", those are 162 game averages and he averages 111 games per year, so you get the point. He's not very good. When you've been in the league 5 years and your best year was your rookie year, that's not a good sign. Braves fans should know something about that (See: Jeff Francoeur)

[zitothebrave]

Who exactly are you? The one that was highly touted as a great prospect that could hit for average, power, and walk like your once in a century rookie campaign

Or

The one that struggles to even hit the most mediocre of fastballs and breaking stuff and strikes out or rolls out to second base every at bat?

We've seen more of the later, and the excuse has always been injury. You've had some Phenominal stretches like after moving to lead off before getting hit in the face.
It's put up or shut up time.

This post has so much fail. The "we've seen more of the later" part. :eusa_dance:

Got to love the strikes out or grounds out to second every at bat. That's so lol worthy.

We have 4 years of Sample with J-Hey. we have 3 years of very good offense, 1 year of below average offense. Even with his below average offense season, he was still a very good MLB player because of his speed and defense. Last 2 years before this he posted a 121 and 120 wRC+ neither are world beaters, but for someone with best in baseball defense, being well above average with that insane defense makes for a great player.

Complaining about Jason is silly.

[zitothebrave]

Is he really? lol

I really wish he would hit, but his defense is great.

He will hit. If he keeps his defense up, we have maybe the best player in the NL. Heyward's on an insane pace defensively with a 55.9 UZR/150 now.

[thethe]

I love Heyward and want him here long term but the talk of him getting more money than Freeman was and always will be crazy.

[jsebe10]

He will hit. If he keeps his defense up, we have maybe the best player in the NL. Heyward's on an insane pace defensively with a 55.9 UZR/150 now.

Ahhhh. Gotta love sabermetrics. Been disguising Jason's mediocrity and title of being a bust for 3 years now.

He's not what everyone wanted him to be. The complaining and worry about Heyward is just. There isn't a sabermetric in the world that can convince me otherwise. Ride him out as long as possible and he can take his ass and that gold glove to free agency. He looks like an idiot standing up there with new ungodly stance he has.

[Heyward]

Ahhhh. Gotta love sabermetrics. Been disguising Jason's mediocrity and title of being a bust for 3 years now.

He's not what everyone wanted him to be. The complaining and worry about Heyward is just. There isn't a sabermetric in the world that can convince me otherwise. Ride him out as long as possible and he can take his ass and that gold glove to free agency. He looks like an idiot standing up there with new ungodly stance he has.

He's had one below average year at the plate.

Three over very good years.

Not counting this season.

Keep making stuff up though.

Bust though, no, not what most thought, probably.

Contract wise, i'm not sure.

[jsebe10]

I love Heyward and want him here long term but the talk of him getting more money than Freeman was and always will be crazy.

Shouldn't have even been a thought. What really alarms me was at the time Franceour got canned, his #s suggested he'd be hitting circles around Heyward. The difference is that we have the pitching and hitting to carry Heyward.

[Julio3000]

Shouldn't have even been a thought. What really alarms me was at the time Franceour got canned, his #s suggested he'd be hitting circles around Heyward. The difference is that we have the pitching and hitting to carry Heyward.

Heyward is in no small part helping to carry the pitchers.

[Heyward]

Shouldn't have even been a thought. What really alarms me was at the time Franceour got canned, his #s suggested he'd be hitting circles around Heyward. The difference is that we have the pitching and hitting to carry Heyward.

Heyward's defense doesnt help at all, does it?

[thethe]

Yeah, Heywards value on the defense is real. But, if he wants to get paid top dollar he needs to get more consistent at the plate. I can't even remember the last time Heyward hit a ball hard.

[jsebe10]

Heyward is in no small part helping to carry the pitchers.

With the bat, no. But the SOB can glove the sh!t out it, I will most definitely admit that.

[jsebe10]

Heyward's defense doesnt help at all, does it?

Never said that. JHey is a gold glover and rightfully so...but what good is catching the third out of the World Series if you can't hit to even get there?

[jsebe10]

Jason in the post season :

9 games
40 AB
16 Ks
.154 BA
.431 OPS
1 BB
0 SBs

[zitothebrave]

Shouldn't have even been a thought. What really alarms me was at the time Franceour got canned, his #s suggested he'd be hitting circles around Heyward. The difference is that we have the pitching and hitting to carry Heyward.

What the hell are you even talking about? Heyward's worst season (ignoring this year's tiny sample) he his .227/.319/.389 in a pitching heavy era. With the Braves Francoeur (ignoring his small sample rookie season) Francoeur bested those numbers when adjusted to era and accounting for the importance of on base percentage, Francoeur topped Heyward's worst season once. His super lucky .337 BABIP season. And ignoring Failcouer's fluketacular rookie season, he never (including his time with the Royals) came close to Jason's second worst season offensively. Francoeur hit really ****ty for a full season and a half before we canned him. I'm assuming your "hitting circles around" comment pertains with Jason's season this year. Which is only about 1/7 through.

Maybe you should take a chill pill and use your head.

[zitothebrave]

Jason in the post season :

9 games
40 AB
16 Ks
.154 BA
.431 OPS
1 BB
0 SBs

Oh man what a bum. We should cut him. We could bring in Pat Burrell he's really clutch in the post season.

[parkvadawg]

What the hell are you even talking about? Heyward's worst season (ignoring this year's tiny sample) he his .227/.319/.389 in a pitching heavy era. With the Braves Francoeur (ignoring his small sample rookie season) Francoeur bested those numbers when adjusted to era and accounting for the importance of on base percentage, Francoeur topped Heyward's worst season once. His super lucky .337 BABIP season. And ignoring Failcouer's fluketacular rookie season, he never (including his time with the Royals) came close to Jason's second worst season offensively. Francoeur hit really ****ty for a full season and a half before we canned him. I'm assuming your "hitting circles around" comment pertains with Jason's season this year. Which is only about 1/7 through.

Maybe you should take a chill pill and use your head.

He won't

[parkvadawg]

Braves104life will hate Heyward till the end

[jsebe10]

What the hell are you even talking about? Heyward's worst season (ignoring this year's tiny sample) he his .227/.319/.389 in a pitching heavy era. With the Braves Francoeur (ignoring his small sample rookie season) Francoeur bested those numbers when adjusted to era and accounting for the importance of on base percentage, Francoeur topped Heyward's worst season once. His super lucky .337 BABIP season. And ignoring Failcouer's fluketacular rookie season, he never (including his time with the Royals) came close to Jason's second worst season offensively. Francoeur hit really ****ty for a full season and a half before we canned him. I'm assuming your "hitting circles around" comment pertains with Jason's season this year. Which is only about 1/7 through.

Maybe you should take a chill pill and use your head.

A pitching heavy era? What are you thinking up your own logic now? How is the pitching different now from back then? With the exception of flame throwers in the BP.

How many 100 RBI seasons has Heyward had ?

How many times has Heyward played a full 162?

How many times has Heyward hit over 30 doubles in a season?

Understood Failcouer didn't pan out, but Heyward isn't exactly lighting up any franchise records his first 4 seasons with the bat.

[jsebe10]

Braves104life will hate Heyward till the end

Hate Heyward ? I don't hate Heyward at all. I'm just not slobbing his knob like some of you on here. You people get so ass hurt when someone has a debate about your precious Heyward.

[50PoundHead]

Francoeur is a really low, low, low, low, low bar.

[jsebe10]

Francoeur is a really low, low, low, low, low bar.

Who's Francoeur ?

[zitothebrave]

A pitching heavy era? What are you thinking up your own logic now? How is the pitching different now from back then? With the exception of flame throwers in the BP.

How many 100 RBI seasons has Heyward had ?

How many times has Heyward played a full 162?

How many times has Heyward hit over 30 doubles in a season?

Understood Failcouer didn't pan out, but Heyward isn't exactly lighting up any franchise records his first 4 seasons with the bat.

There's this thing we have called stats. We can tell that hitters across the board are hitting less than they did 5 years ago. It's happened a lot in baseball. Bullpens are better, the starting pitching is better, and other factors may apply as well. You can choose to ignore facts, you're allowed to, doesn't mean that they don't exist for those who choose to actually you know, use them.

RBI's are a worth less stat, most players don't play 162, 30 doubles is arbitrary and I guess the year he hit 30 doubles and 27 homers while swiping 20 bases, driving in 80 and scoring 90, he's just the ****ing worst. lulz

Heyward isn't setting records, but so what, does everyone have to set records? Can't a guy be special without setting records? Was Hudson not awesome cause he didn't set records for us? What the **** kind of logic is that?

[zitothebrave]

Hate Heyward ? I don't hate Heyward at all. I'm just not slobbing his knob like some of you on here. You people get so ass hurt when someone has a debate about your precious Heyward.

It's not a debate if you're spreading lies as facts.

[Dalyn]

http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/lt/lt_cache/thumbnail/610/img/photos/2013/09/20/82/dc/091413_braves_35.jpg

[CyYoung31]

Lmao!! Spreading lies as facts? Ziti, were you touched as a child? Every stat I put about Heyward and Failcouer is exactly that, a factual stat. Dude, you need counseling.

Stats that don't paint a clear picture. Try again.

[zitothebrave]

Lmao!! Spreading lies as facts? Ziti, were you touched as a child? Every stat I put about Heyward and Failcouer is exactly that, a factual stat. Dude, you need counseling.

No it's not. You haven't pulled anything of any substance yet. Your post in this thread about "stats" have said that Francoeur has hit circles around Heyward, Heyward's post season stats, and did he reach some arbitrary standards that you've decided are key to being a good hitter.

[jsebe10]

No it's not. You haven't pulled anything of any substance yet. Your post in this thread about "stats" have said that Francoeur has hit circles around Heyward, Heyward's post season stats, and did he reach some arbitrary standards that you've decided are key to being a good hitter.

First off, I apologize for the being touched and needing counseling, that was distasteful and unnecessary.

Second off, you do not need me to post stats concerning Franceour when I know you have seen them.

But you act like you have pure facts about the games evolution of pitching since 2005 without posting a thing. As if you went through all the position players' stats since 2005.

[50PoundHead]

Who's Francoeur ?

That was aimed more at zito. Heyward is a better player than Francoeur. I'm just saying that's a lousy comparison if you're trying to tout a guy.

[jsebe10]

That was aimed more at zito. Heyward is a better player than Francoeur. I'm just saying that's a lousy comparison if you're trying to tout a guy.

I'm jk.

Yea I agree. I wasn't saying or implying that Heyward would never be considered a major leaguer if he doesn't put up #s similar to Framceour's good days. I was just implying that I think Franceour was STATISTICALLY hitting better than Heyward when he got canned.

[CyYoung31]

I'm jk.

Yea I agree. I wasn't saying or implying that Heyward would never be considered a major leaguer if he doesn't put up #s similar to Framceour's good days. I was just implying that I think Franceour was STATISTICALLY hitting better than Heyward when he got canned.

You mean Heyward now? Maybe. But it's also only been a month for him, while it was basically two years for Francouer.

[jsebe10]

You mean Heyward now? Maybe. But it's also only been a month for him, while it was basically two years for Francouer.

I understand that.

Franceour hit .239 in 08' and was hitting about .250 when he got traded.

Heyward has most certainly shown glimpses as being a hitter you can't get out, but has never translated that on the field consistently. I never said to cut him or bench him, he's obviously our best option at the moment. I just mentioned to not forget this come contract time.

[The Chosen One]

Francoeur never walked. Heyward still gets walks.

Batting average means nothing comparing the two because Francoeur's value was simply singles and homers. Plus Francouer's range in the outfield is nothing like Heyward's.

[zitothebrave]

First off, I apologize for the being touched and needing counseling, that was distasteful and unnecessary.

Second off, you do not need me to post stats concerning Franceour when I know you have seen them.

But you act like you have pure facts about the games evolution of pitching since 2005 without posting a thing. As if you went through all the position players' stats since 2005.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml

In 2009 there was 4.61 RPG in 2010 there was 4.38 and that number continued to drop. Baseball as a hitting environment is totally changed, anyone paying attention to the league would know it.

[jsebe10]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml

In 2009 there was 4.61 RPG in 2010 there was 4.38 and that number continued to drop. Baseball as a hitting environment is totally changed, anyone paying attention to the league would know it.

Sooooooo. It's gone from 4.6 in 09' to 4.2 in 13'? How significant is that really?

Ok. Pitching has gotten slightly better since 2009, and Tommy Johns has gone up too.

[zitothebrave]

.4 runs per game is 65 runs in a season. or a run every 2.5 games. which yes is a lot.

To put in perspective, that's often the difference between a good offensive team and a bad one (for example last year we scored 4.2 runs, the Phillies scored 3.8 we were obviously a much better offensive team)

[Carp]

Ryan Langerhans was fantastic on defense too. I don't see many people upset that we let him get away.

Base running and defense are nice, but he's going to have to show some offense to be worth keeping around. That being said, I fully expect Heyward to get hot at some point as long as he doesn't get injured.

This just goes to show ridiculous of a stat WAR actually is. In what reality is Heyward and his .566 OPS more valuable than Freeman and his 1.033 OPS. Even if Freddie were Adam Dunn defensively (he's not by the way) and even if Heyward were Ozzie Smith defensively (he's not either by the way, as good as Heyward may be), there is no way that the defensive difference is even remotely close enough to compensate for the massive difference in offense that Freeman provides.

[50PoundHead]

Francoeur never walked. Heyward still gets walks.

Batting average means nothing comparing the two because Francoeur's value was simply singles and homers. Plus Francouer's range in the outfield is nothing like Heyward's.

And right now, those are two of the three major advantages Heyward has over Francoeur (also baserunning). Heyward is clearly the better player, but I think anyone who isn't somewhat troubled by his inconsistency with a bat in his hands is in a bit of denial. He's got talent and he'll likely go on a tear that will boost his stats. But he's not playing that well.

[zitothebrave]

To clarify as well, that's based off a per team basis. This shows better the average of runs scored per game

http://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/mlb/what-is-the-average-number-of-runs-scored-in-an-mlb-game.aspx

As you can see there's almost a full run lower being scored per game.

Again, well known facts to the people paying attention?

[The Chosen One]

Heyward supporters acknowledge he's struggling right now, but to compare him to Francoeur is ridiculous IMO.

Better range and defense, Francoeur had a better arm for throwing.

Heyward better plate discipline by far and of course he actually takes walks compared to Francoeur.

[zitothebrave]

Ryan Langerhans was fantastic on defense too. I don't see many people upset that we let him get away.

Base running and defense are nice, but he's going to have to show some offense to be worth keeping around. That being said, I fully expect Heyward to get hot at some point as long as he doesn't get injured.

This just goes to show ridiculous of a stat WAR actually is. In what reality is Heyward and his .566 OPS more valuable than Freeman and his 1.033 OPS. Even if Freddie were Adam Dunn defensively (he's not by the way) and even if Heyward were Ozzie Smith defensively (he's not either by the way, as good as Heyward may be), there is no way that the defensive difference is even remotely close enough to compensate for the massive difference in offense that Freeman provides.

Jason Heyward will never be as bad of a hitter and is a much better defender than Langerhans, bad comparison bro.

And preventing runs is as important as scoring them. You can argue the fine points. But Jason has been valuable to this team defensively. Our team's pitchers have significantly outperformed their FIP and Simmons and Heyward are the 2 biggest reasons. Despite having no range Freddie, terrible Uggs and Johnson we kill it.

[The Chosen One]

Freddie may not have the best range, but he gets pretty much every wild throw that Uggla, Johnson, and Simmons throw over there. He picks up the 1 hop throws as good as anybody at 1B, and as Friday suggested, he is a good 1B to hold the bag.

[Heyward]

Never said that. JHey is a gold glover and rightfully so...but what good is catching the third out of the World Series if you can't hit to even get there?

In the playoffs, games are close, defense is huge, he brings that.

Runs come are a premium in the postseason.

Ask the Sox how much Drew's defense helped them last year despite not hitting for ****, it's clear you dont like Heyward, why that is, is anybody's guess.

[The Chosen One]

it's clear you dont like Heyward, why that is, is anybody's guess.

I think a lot of people don't like Jason Heyward because of you.

[zitothebrave]

Heyward supporters acknowledge he's struggling right now, but to compare him to Francoeur is ridiculous IMO.

Better range and defense, Francoeur had a better arm for throwing.

Heyward better plate discipline by far and of course he actually takes walks compared to Francoeur.

Heyward's career slash is .256/.349/.435, with the Bravos had a slash of .266/.308/.424 so Jason was only slightly worse at average so far, but has an insanely high OBP and higher power numbers as well, in a lower offensive era. Or to show in a way that people don't have to use their brain as much. Jason has a 112 OPS+ Francoeur in Atlanta had an 89.

That's OPS+ which doesn't properly weight events (read OBP values walks the same as hits, and it double counts hits adding an over value to SLG)

[Heyward]

I think a lot of people don't like Jason Heyward because of you.

:icwudt:

[zitothebrave]

Freddie may not have the best range, but he gets pretty much every wild throw that Uggla, Johnson, and Simmons throw over there. He picks up the 1 hop throws as good as anybody at 1B, and as Friday suggested, he is a good 1B to hold the bag.

Freddie is great at fielding throws. Unfortunately there's no way to statistically track that. I don't think Freddie is a butcher at 1B by any stretch and he's undervalued by WAR likely because I'm sure he's an above average receiver.

[thethe]

Come on Zito...I'm a Heyward fan but he has been a disappointment overall thus far. That of course has more to do with the hype train and his rookie season but Heyward has not lived up to his potential as of yet. I hope that changes soon and he is here long term.

[Heyward]

I find it funny how people act like defense doesnt matter.

Preventing runs if just as important as scoring/driving them in.

Ask our pitchers if Heyward's defense doesnt matter, breaking it does, a LOT.

[thethe]

And first base range is vastly overrated. Sure, its nice to have but just like with catching the most important thing is how you receive the ball being thrown to you.

[jsebe10]

I find it funny how people act like defense doesnt matter.

Preventing runs if just as important as scoring/driving them in.

Ask our pitchers if Heyward's defense doesnt matter, breaking it does, a LOT.

Defense is very important, yes. But players drive in 100 runs plus in a season, not save 100 plus runs. At the end of the day you still have to score runs to win, so saving runs is not nearly as important as driving runs in.

A huge plus if the player can do both.

[zitothebrave]

Come on Zito...I'm a Heyward fan but he has been a disappointment overall thus far. That of course has more to do with the hype train and his rookie season but Heyward has not lived up to his potential as of yet. I hope that changes soon and he is here long term.

Heyward has posted a 6.4 fWAR season and assuming his bat returns to normal and his defense drops to normal he'll probably be in the 5-6 range. Which is great. No he's not Trout, but those types are super rare. And for comparison it took Cutch til his 25 year old season to hit his superstar status, Jason may very well wind up in that same boat. he's only 24. Even if he doesn't, he's still a heck of a baseball player. If you expected him to be Bonds or Trout, then yeah you'll be disappointed, but Heyward has been for 3 of his 4 seasons an All-Star or near All-star level player and he's under 25, is that really a disappointment?

[Carp]

Jason Heyward will never be as bad of a hitter and is a much better defender than Langerhans, bad comparison bro.

And preventing runs is as important as scoring them. You can argue the fine points. But Jason has been valuable to this team defensively. Our team's pitchers have significantly outperformed their FIP and Simmons and Heyward are the 2 biggest reasons. Despite having no range Freddie, terrible Uggs and Johnson we kill it.

But right now Heyward is as bad of a hitter (worse actually) than Langy. Langy played a very good CF in his prime, so it stands to assume he would have been a plus defender in RF as well. But that isn't really the point.

I'm not arguing defense isn't important, but it is nowhere near important (individually anyways) as offense. Yet WAR would have you believe he's been worth more wins than Freeman AND and that Heyward has been one of the 10 best players in baseball this yr.

[zitothebrave]

Defense is very important, yes. But players drive in 100 runs plus in a season, not save 100 plus runs. At the end of the day you still have to score runs to win, so saving runs is not nearly as important as driving runs in.

But a player who saves 20 and scores/drives in 160 is just as valuable as someone who saves 0 and scores/drives in 180 even using your overly simplistic look on stats no?

[Heyward]

Defense is very important, yes. But players drive in 100 runs plus in a season, not save 100 plus runs. At the end of the day you still have to score runs to win, so saving runs is not nearly as important as driving runs in.

A huge plus if the player can do both.

14 players had 100+ RBI's last year in ALL OF BASEBALL.

Does everyone who didnt drive in 100 runs suck then according to this logic.

And RBI's is a dumb stat just like pitcher wins.

And Heyward hits leadoff, so it's gonna be VERY hard to drive in 100 runs from the leadoff spot.

Doubles, walks, runs, and saving runs with defense is just as important as RBI's which is a flawed stat.

Brandon Phillips lead the NL in RBI's, is he the best hitter in the NL then?



We'll agree to disagree before Keith warns me again.

[zitothebrave]

But right now Heyward is as bad of a hitter (worse actually) than Langy. Langy played a very good CF in his prime, so it stands to assume he would have been a plus defender in RF as well. But that isn't really the point.

I'm not arguing defense isn't important, but it is nowhere near important (individually anyways) as offense. Yet WAR would have you believe he's been worth more wins than Freeman AND and that Heyward has been one of the 10 best players in baseball this yr.

Actually that's not entirely true, Langerhans had a season with a 52 wRC+ over 244 PA, Jason is sitting at 67 in 107.

Langerhans didn't have much of a defensive sample outside of LF. And he was very good in LF (17.5 UZR/150) but Jason is sitting at a 18.4 UZR/150 for RF which obviously has better defenders.

[jsebe10]

But a player who saves 20 and scores/drives in 160 is just as valuable as someone who saves 0 and scores/drives in 180 even using your overly simplistic look on stats no?

How do you win ball games? SCORING MORE RUNS THAN THE OPPONENT. Not saving more runs than the opponent. Defense is important, but not as important as scoring runs, plain and simple.

[The Chosen One]

We'll agree to disagree before Keith warns me again.

Actually this has turned into the official Jason Heyward discussion thread...

So I will allow it. I just don't want this conversation jumping into other threads especially the GDT.

No personal attacks, but keep it to the numbers like you have.

[Carp]

I find it funny how people act like defense doesnt matter.

Preventing runs if just as important as scoring/driving them in.

Ask our pitchers if Heyward's defense doesnt matter, breaking it does, a LOT.


Or why don't we ask out pitchers how mad they get when they throw 8 innings of 1 run ball or less and still get the L? I'm betting it's a LOT!

[jsebe10]

14 players had 100+ RBI's last year in ALL OF BASEBALL.

Does everyone who didnt drive in 100 runs suck then according to this logic.

And RBI's is a dumb stat just like pitcher wins.

And Heyward hits leadoff, so it's gonna be VERY hard to drive in 100 runs from the leadoff spot.

Doubles, walks, runs, and saving runs with defense is just as important as RBI's which is a flawed stat.

Brandon Phillips lead the NL in RBI's, is he the best hitter in the NL then?



We'll agree to disagree before Keith warns me again.

A flawed stat?

What in the hell kind of genre are we in now with baseball? I guess I am way to old school for this convo.

[The Chosen One]

How do you win ball games? SCORING MORE RUNS THAN THE OPPONENT. Not saving more runs than the opponent. Defense is important, but not as important as scoring runs, plain and simple.

Actually defense is very important. Can you imagine throwing out 2 Evan Gattis' like defenders in left and right, and then having a Billy Hamilton all speed but no range or instincts in CF?

Do you think if we had butchers in the outfield yesterday that the game is still 0-0 to the 10th?

We've seen from Uggla this year just how important defense is, as he's costed us a few times already.

And baseball is about scoring 1 more run than the other team, not scoring a lot of runs to beat the other team. As long as our pitching remains dominant, we will be fine for now.

[thethe]

Heyward has posted a 6.4 fWAR season and assuming his bat returns to normal and his defense drops to normal he'll probably be in the 5-6 range. Which is great. No he's not Trout, but those types are super rare. And for comparison it took Cutch til his 25 year old season to hit his superstar status, Jason may very well wind up in that same boat. he's only 24. Even if he doesn't, he's still a heck of a baseball player. If you expected him to be Bonds or Trout, then yeah you'll be disappointed, but Heyward has been for 3 of his 4 seasons an All-Star or near All-star level player and he's under 25, is that really a disappointment?

Listen, I think WAR inflates defensive guys. I will be interested to see when the new technology is actually incorporated into defensive statistics. There is no way you can definitively place a win value to defense at this point. The data is just not as reliable as we need it to be. Not yet it isn't.

[The Chosen One]

Or why don't we ask out pitchers how mad they get when they throw 8 innings of 1 run ball or less and still get the L? I'm betting it's a LOT!

That's baseball.

It isn't like we were getting shutout by a 5th starter. The Fernandez and Cueto games were against the other team's aces.

[jsebe10]

Or why don't we ask out pitchers how mad they get when they throw 8 innings of 1 run ball or less and still get the L? I'm betting it's a LOT!

Shhhhh stop making sense Carp. If Heyward doesn't drive in the game winning run, it's ok because he made a diving catch earlier in the game.

[Modok]

On the Scout board, I got slammed for saying that Freeman was a better hitter than Heyward. This was at the start of last season.

Heyward needs to learn to hit the ball the other way. As far as he stands away from the plate, its a must.

As much as his hitting is frustrating, there is not arguing his contributions on D. He is an extremely gifted defender.

[Carp]

But a player who saves 20 and scores/drives in 160 is just as valuable as someone who saves 0 and scores/drives in 180 even using your overly simplistic look on stats no?

Not that driving in runs is a good way to prove anything, but the idea that someone "Saved 20 runs" is also not based on extremely accurate stats.

[Heyward]

A flawed stat?

What in the hell kind of genre are we in now with baseball? I guess I am way to old school for this convo.

Yes, RBI's is a flawed stat.

Brandon Phillips had the most RBI's last year, is he the best hitter in the game?

Only 14 in all of baseball.

Do doubles, walks, runs, singles account for anything or is it all about the homers and RBI's?

[zitothebrave]

How do you win ball games? SCORING MORE RUNS THAN THE OPPONENT. Not saving more runs than the opponent. Defense is important, but not as important as scoring runs, plain and simple.

And run prevention.

I mean it would be ideal if we dropped 10 runs per game, but even with a team of guys hitting like Justin and Freddie we wouldn't do that. So go on.

[Modok]

Yes, RBI's is a flawed stat.

Brandon Phillips had the most RBI's last year, is he the best hitter in the game?

Only 14 in all of baseball.

Do doubles, walks, runs, singles account for anything or is it all about the homers and RBI's?

Do you also think that RISP is a flawed stat?

[jsebe10]

Plain and simple, if you do not drive in or score runs you won't in in the league or a team long, no matter how good you are defensively. Ask Jeff Franceour.

[The Chosen One]

A flawed stat?

What in the hell kind of genre are we in now with baseball? I guess I am way to old school for this convo.

Wins for a pitcher certainly don't tell the entire story.

Wood has pitched phenomenal in all of his losses this year. 8 innings in every loss I think? Washington, Philly, Florida?

Then Russ Ortiz winning 21 games in 2003 despite having like 6 runs per game of run support. I don't think anybody here thought Ortiz deserved the Cy Young with 21 wins and a 3.81 ERA that year.

It's a misleading number. Cliff Lee lost two games to us throwing a complete game and striking out +10.

It's especially misleading because of how all managers micromanage the bullpen now... Guys like Maddux-Johnson-Glavine etc earned 300 win because of consistency and longevity.

[jsebe10]

And run prevention.

I mean it would be ideal if we dropped 10 runs per game, but even with a team of guys hitting like Justin and Freddie we wouldn't do that. So go on.

Run prevention due to pitching, yes. We've seen Heyward and Simmons save plenty of runs in games that we lost because the other team scored more runs.

[Heyward]

How do you win ball games? SCORING MORE RUNS THAN THE OPPONENT. Not saving more runs than the opponent. Defense is important, but not as important as scoring runs, plain and simple.

Defense is very important.

Like i said, in the playoffs, you are facing STUDS, aces/#2's, so runs are at a premium.

You cant have butchers out there giving the team extra outs to score.

Heyward has been ass at the plate so far, but his defense has been extremely important and is a big reason we are where we are.

[The Chosen One]

Plain and simple, if you do not drive in or score runs you won't in in the league or a team long, no matter how good you are defensively. Ask Jeff Franceour.

Jeter won a GG... everyone knows how awful defensively he is.

Francoeur fell off a cliff. Once he stopped hitting 25 homers and 100 rbis he was useless because he didn't walk, didn't rack up doubles or a high batting average and struck out a lot. He also never made the pitcher work as the hack attack thing died once pitcher realized he couldn't hit a breaking ball for any use.

[Heyward]

Do you also think that RISP is a flawed stat?

To a certain degree, yes.

[Heyward]

Plain and simple, if you do not drive in or score runs you won't in in the league or a team long, no matter how good you are defensively. Ask Jeff Franceour.

Thats not true.

Always a place for good defense if the rest of your lineup can hold it down.

[yeezus]

I really don't understand why you guys need to be so polarized on this issue.
Has Heyward lived up to expectations? No. Not sure that's debatable.
Have injuries, freak or not, derailed that path? In all likelihood.
Has he shown glimpses, in more than just one season, of being a catalyst offensively? Yes. Again, not really debatable. He's shown what he can do.
Is he very frustrating to watch at the plate during his prolonged slumps? Yup.
He's still just 24 and has had numerous things knock him out of grooves in his young career. I'm fine with letting him figure it out, I believe he's a much, MUCH better hitter than he's shown this year thus far, and his defense in right is otherworldly. Part of the reason our SP staff has been so crazy good is the defense provided by the two best defensive players at their positions - Simmons and Heyward. Heyward is a guy, IMO, you let figure it out as he has in the past.

[Modok]

To a certain degree, yes.

Please enlighten.

[jsebe10]

Wins for a pitcher certainly don't tell the entire story.

Wood has pitched phenomenal in all of his losses this year. 8 innings in every loss I think? Washington, Philly, Florida?

Then Russ Ortiz winning 21 games in 2003 despite having like 6 runs per game of run support. I don't think anybody here thought Ortiz deserved the Cy Young with 21 wins and a 3.81 ERA that year.

It's a misleading number. Cliff Lee lost two games to us throwing a complete game and striking out +10.

It's especially misleading because of how all managers micromanage the bullpen now... Guys like Maddux-Johnson-Glavine etc earned 300 win because of consistency and longevity.

And you are spot on with this.

But these guys earned the majority of these wins having our absolute loaded offenses in their era. To say that RBI is a flawed stat is asinine. They give out MVP awards based on that stat.

[The Chosen One]

Run prevention due to pitching, yes. We've seen Heyward and Simmons save plenty of runs in games that we lost because the other team scored more runs.

baseball is a game where the best hitters succeed 30% of the time (or 40% if you want OBP).

Baseball will and will always be a pitcher's game. So defense and pitching are always the foundation of any ballclub. That was the foundation of our team for the last 2 and a half decades.. and it's worked out well for us.

[Carp]

Actually that's not entirely true, Langerhans had a season with a 52 wRC+ over 244 PA, Jason is sitting at 67 in 107.

Langerhans didn't have much of a defensive sample outside of LF. And he was very good in LF (17.5 UZR/150) but Jason is sitting at a 18.4 UZR/150 for RF which obviously has better defenders.

I was mostly talking about Langy's playing time with the Braves. But I'm not going to argue the merits of Heyward being better than Langy. I never once said Langy is a better player than Heyward. Obviously Heyward isn't this bad. I was just making the point that a good defender isn't really all that valuable if he can't even hit his weight.

[Hawk]

I would have no problem offering Jason a 5-6 year deal at $15-18MM annually. That's how much faith I have in his talent, work ethic, and character.

[parkvadawg]

Run prevention due to pitching, yes. We've seen Heyward and Simmons save plenty of runs in games that we lost because the other team scored more runs.

Plenty we have also won because they scored less but go on

[Modok]

I would have no problem offering Jason a 5-6 year deal at $15-18MM annually. That's how much faith I have in his talent, work ethic, and character.

:snort:

[yeezus]

And you are spot on with this.

But these guys earned the majority of these wins having our absolute loaded offenses in their era. To say that RBI is a flawed stat is asinine. They give out MVP awards based on that stat.

It's also very team dependent. As in, if guys do not get on base in front of your HR, it counts for 1 RBI. I think hitting with RISP is an art to a degree, but at the same time it is proven, statistically, to be luck-driven and happenstance. High averages with RISP tend to even out. I think there are a plethora of stats to use over RBI. I wouldn't really use RBI in determining value of anyone.

[Heyward]

And you are spot on with this.

But these guys earned the majority of these wins having our absolute loaded offenses in their era. To say that RBI is a flawed stat is asinine. They give out MVP awards based on that stat.

Why didnt Phillips win the MVP if RBI's are the end-all, be-all?

[The Chosen One]

And you are spot on with this.

But these guys earned the majority of these wins having our absolute loaded offenses in their era. To say that RBI is a flawed stat is asinine. They give out MVP awards based on that stat.

Braves hardly had loaded offenses... Maddux and Glavine and even RJ threw a lot of complete games and complete game shutouts in the 90's. They're 3 of the best that ever pitched in the game, so it's hard to compare them to pitchers today.

Pedro didn't get to 300 because by the time he started aging, the over emphasis on bullpens came in play. Maddux and Glavine in their older years were above passable pitchers, Maddux was still balling in his last few years.

Just because they give MVP awards based on RBI's doesn't necessarily mean they're the most important. Baseball has evolved, and Heyward now hitting leadoff isn't going to get many RBI opportunities. That's just the reality so to say his RBI totals suck is just not fair.

[Hawk]

:snort:

And I think that would be at a discount to the Braves.

[Heyward]

Please enlighten.

Hard to explain, honestly.

[Modok]

Braves hardly had loaded offenses... Maddux and Glavine and even RJ threw a lot of complete games and complete game shutouts in the 90's. They're 3 of the best that ever pitched in the game, so it's hard to compare them to pitchers today.

Pedro didn't get to 300 because by the time he started aging, the over emphasis on bullpens came in play. Maddux and Glavine in their older years were above passable pitchers, Maddux was still balling in his last few years.

Just because they give MVP awards based on RBI's doesn't necessarily mean they're the most important. Baseball has evolved, and Heyward now hitting leadoff isn't going to get many RBI opportunities. That's just the reality so to say his RBI totals suck is just not fair.

Its fair because he has been absolutely terrible at the plate this year. I tend to believe he has struggled more than most. But I digress.

[Heyward]

I would have no problem offering Jason a 5-6 year deal at $15-18MM annually. That's how much faith I have in his talent, work ethic, and character.

I'd do that in a nano-second, but i think it would cost more.

[jsebe10]

baseball is a game where the best hitters succeed 30% of the time (or 40% if you want OBP).

Baseball will and will always be a pitcher's game. So defense and pitching are always the foundation of any ballclub. That was the foundation of our team for the last 2 and a half decades.. and it's worked out well for us.

Understood and agree. Hitting and driving in runs is also a foundation of a team.

[Heyward]

Its fair because he has been absolutely terrible at the plate this year. I tend to believe he has struggled more than most. But I digress.

I dont think anyone has disagreed he has been bad at the plate.

But most logical fans will give him time and believe his track record will end up proving it's a slow start and he'll eventually catch fire.

[Modok]

And I think that would be at a discount to the Braves.

Thank goodness Wren and Co feel much differently.

[yeezus]

Hard to explain, honestly.

Not all that hard.
To put it simply, sure some guys may do it better than others. But, the stats show, even with the teams or players who do it well for a season or two, it tends to even out. Like most things in baseball. There's something to be said for shortening a swing and putting the ball in play with RISP, but it's still BABIP-dependent.

[yeezus]

Thank goodness Wren and Co feel much differently.

How do you know they feel differently?

[Hawk]

How do you know they feel differently?

Because he just took a toot of that cocaine he offered me (so did I).

[Modok]

How do you know they feel differently?

Because they were giving long term extensions and money away left and right.....he got neither.

[Heyward]

Thank goodness Wren and Co feel much differently.

I'm not sure they do.

I think they think very highly of him.

[The Chosen One]

Understood and agree. Hitting and driving in runs is also a foundation of a team.

It's not a priority over pitching and defense. Unless you have 8 Freeman and Justin's in your lineup and all have career years, even the best numbers won't win you 100+ games without somewhat decent pitching.

We had career years in 2003 from Javy-Sheff-Giles-Furcal. Smoltz held our crappy bullpen together. That's a once in a blue moon type of deal and was the reason we won 100. It's unrealistic to expect 4-5 guys to carry your team with career years year in and year out. Look what happened when we faced the Cubs with their dominant pitching, the only time their rotation was able to stay healthy all year.

Pitching is always and will always be a constant and a proven strategy for building teams. We won 1995 not because we outhit Cleveland, but our pitching came through.

Scoring runs are important, but scoring 5+ runs a game isn't when your pitching has been as good as ours.

[Heyward]

Because they were giving long term extensions and money away left and right.....he got neither.

They were going to offer him one, but decided to wait.

So no, this is false.

[Modok]

I'm not sure they do.

I think they think very highly of him.

They gave him 2 years. 4.5M for 2014 and 7.8M for 2015. To me that screams wait and see.

[yeezus]

Because he just took a toot of that cocaine he offered me (so did I).

http://media.onsugar.com/files/2011/01/03/2/1331/13311615/ca/Tyrone_Biggums_Tyrone_Big_461c9a578dede.jpg

[jsebe10]

I'm not sure they do.

I think they think very highly of him.

Everyone does.

I'd love for Jason to be as successful as he possibly could while with the Braves, hell, we all do.

[yeezus]

Because they were giving long term extensions and money away left and right.....he got neither.

So you're making assumptions, then/
Who's to say they didn't offer him a 5-year deal at 16MM per and he rejected?

[Carp]

Personally, I'd much rather sign J-Up to an extension than Heyward.

[Modok]

So you're making assumptions, then/
Who's to say they didn't offer him a 5-year deal at 16MM per and he rejected?

lol......keep trolling

[The Chosen One]

They gave him 2 years. 4.5M for 2014 and 7.8M for 2015. To me that screams wait and see.

Wait and see because of injuries and freak injuries, not performance.

If Jason puts up what he did his rookie or even 2012, he's worth that much money in this market especially with how young he is.

He's been unfortunate with the appendectomy, broken jaw, thumb injury, etc. His wrist injury his rookie year dropped his numbers lower than what they could've been. That was already an all-time historic his rookie year...

[zitothebrave]

Personally, I'd much rather sign J-Up to an extension than Heyward.

I'd rather sign both of them. Both are great players. BUt if I had to choose gun to my head I take Jason because his ceiling is way higher.

[yeezus]

This season will shed a lot of light on what needs to be done, or what will be done. There's little doubt Heyward needs to start producing at the plate.

[Heyward]

Schuerholz, Wren talk Heyward and extensions
By Jane Hammond


Scott Cunningham
MLB.com's Tracy Ringolsby says the Braves anticipate giving a big extension to Heyward after next year.

Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com has an interesting article discussing the road to the Braves giving out so many long-term extensions to their core players of Freddie Freeman, Craig Kimbrel, Julio Teheran and now Andrelton Simmons. The key, as we all have heard, is the new Cobb County stadium which will bring in a larger revenue stream to the club.

"This was really born out of the idea that we feel we have a dynamic young core of players and over the next few years we definitely want to keep them together," said Braves executive vice president and GM Frank Wren, who along with manager Fredi Gonzalez got a contract extension of his own on Wednesday. "We do not envision going into a new ballpark without our core in place."
The whole piece is worth a read, and Schuerholz had similar thoughts, but the key here is this line from Ringolsby:

The expectation is that after next season, the Heyward deal can be expanded so that he, too, will be locked up at least through the first year in the new ballpark.
It seems so casually thrown in, as if of course we should assume Jason Heyward will be around forever. Interesting insight from someone who talked to both Schuerholz and Wren about the Braves' future.

...

This from the offseason, the Braves FO thinks very highly of Heyward, read and weep. I still dont think we'll keep him but it has nothing to do with the FO not liking him.

[yeezus]

lol......keep trolling

Huh?
You have no idea what happened this off-season. The two sides talked long-term extension. It is completely possible they offered Heyward that kind of deal and he felt he could get more on the open market in a few years. You've provided zero evidence that Wren didn't offer him something close to what Hawk suggested.

[The Chosen One]

I'd rather sign both of them. Both are great players. BUt if I had to choose gun to my head I take Jason because his ceiling is way higher.

Upton is already shaky out there defensively. I can easily see him dropping to Gattis level in a few years. Can he play 3rd base?

[jsebe10]

It's not a priority over pitching and defense. Unless you have 8 Freeman and Justin's in your lineup and all have career years, even the best numbers won't win you 100+ games without somewhat decent pitching.

We had career years in 2003 from Javy-Sheff-Giles-Furcal. Smoltz held our crappy bullpen together. That's a once in a blue moon type of deal and was the reason we won 100. It's unrealistic to expect 4-5 guys to carry your team with career years year in and year out. Look what happened when we faced the Cubs with their dominant pitching, the only time their rotation was able to stay healthy all year.

Pitching is always and will always be a constant and a proven strategy for building teams. We won 1995 not because we outhit Cleveland, but our pitching came through.

Scoring runs are important, but scoring 5+ runs a game isn't when your pitching has been as good as ours.

Good pitching has been the Braves motto for decades. But you know as well as I do it wasn't nothing for the Braves to keep and OF who hit 25-35 HRs in a season. Btw Grissom, Gant, Sheffield, Justice, Drew, etc. Mix on Fred McGriff, Chipper, Castilla, and Gallaragga....yes, the Braves scored a ton of runs during that time frame.

[Heyward]

They offered Heyward a long-term deal a few years ago, he rejected.

And yes, he could of very well turned down a deal in the 15-17 mil range.

[Modok]

Huh?
You have no idea what happened this off-season. The two sides talked long-term extension. It is completely possible they offered Heyward that kind of deal and he felt he could get more on the open market in a few years. You've provided zero evidence that Wren didn't offer him something close to what Hawk suggested.

And it is completely possible they didnt.

[yeezus]

And it is completely possible they didnt.

Of course it is.
But that fact that you said Wren and Co. didn't feel the same way Hawk did (in regards to the 5-years 15-18 mil/year) is by no means a fact, and you treated it as such. My point is you don't know, so don't make concrete statements about it.

[jsebe10]

They offered Heyward a long-term deal a few years ago, he rejected.

And yes, he could of very well turned down a deal in the 15-17 mil range.

Not worth that much at the moment. Few more years could say otherwise.

[Heyward]

Not worth that much at the moment. Few more years could say otherwise.

He'd get 15+ on the open market.

Maybe not worth much IYO.

[Modok]

Of course it is.
But that fact that you said Wren and Co. didn't feel the same way Hawk did (in regards to the 5-years 15-18 mil/year) is by no means a fact, and you treated it as such. My point is you don't know, so don't make concrete statements about it.

I treated my opinion as fact?

Dude, go troll someone else.

[jsebe10]

He'd get 15+ on the open market.

Maybe not worth much IYO.

Lol please.

[The Chosen One]

Lol please.

lol have you seen this market? Especially with new TV deals?

10 years ago a pitcher like Ervin Santana would've gotten a 7-8 million deal, today's market he got 14.

[parkvadawg]

Lol please.

He would get that easily

[yeezus]

I treated my opinion as fact?

Dude, go troll someone else.

Do you consider every disagreement/pointing out of fallacies as "trolling"?
You said "good thing they don't feel the same way."
That's not true. You don't know if they felt the same way or not. I'm not "trolling." I'm pointing out a very obvious fact.

[Hawk]

Lol please.

Curtis Granderson got $15MM from the Mets.

[jsebe10]

lol have you seen this market? Especially with new TV deals?

10 years ago a pitcher like Ervin Santana would've gotten a 7-8 million deal, today's market he got 14.

Yea I could see that.

[jsebe10]

Curtis Granderson got $15MM from the Mets.

Good point.

My boys will be playing baseball. Lol

[The Chosen One]

Tone down the personal attacks everyone please.

Current discussion is Heyward's value, his potential contract money, etc.

Do not get into personal insults please.

[yeezus]

There is a little doubt a player of Heyward's caliber and projection would get that much money. Teams would love to gamble on him, and at worst he's an elite defender.

[Heyward]

Lol please.

For the best defensive RF'er in the game, at only 24 years old, yes.

Granderson got 4/50 or 4/60.

With the increased revenue, he'd easily get 15 mil a year even though you may disagree.

No question he gets that.

[jsebe10]

Jason Bay got a similar abortion of a contract too right?

[yeezus]

Jason Bay got a similar abortion of a contract too right?

His was worse than 15 mil, I think it was 17-18.

[Hawk]

His was worse than 15 mil, I think it was 17-18.

That was some of that Omar Minaya madness.

[Heyward]

Jason Bay got a similar abortion of a contract too right?

He got 4/66 mil, i think.

[jsebe10]

That was some of that Omar Minaya madness.

A couple of his guys got hurt waaayyyy to often in Beltran and Santana.

[yeezus]

A couple of his guys got hurt waaayyyy to often in Beltran and Santana.

Which is kinda funny, because Beltran was like, always healthy for the Cards.
He was actually pretty healthy for 4 out of 6 years in NY.

[The Chosen One]

Said this before a few days ago and will say it again. Nationals are like the whiny kids trying to show the adults they're ready to play with the big boys.

The Mets will always be our #1 Rival. Not Philly, not Washington, not Florida.

The first game at Shea after 9/11, as a Braves fan I could not have asked for a better finish. Sucked losing, but I was not mad about losing that night at all.

I remember the 2001 offseason the Mets STACKED their team with a bunch of veterans to challenge us. Alomar, Burnitz, Mo Vaughn, etc. Up to that point the only move we made was signing Vinny to play 3rd after his decent season in Tampa.

That offseason looked doomed until JS pulled off the Sheffield trade and suddenly we had a race. I remember the first series in 2002 where the Mets lit up Smoltz for 8 runs in one inning I think it was. Sucks that the Mets sucked that year, because I've always liked the games we played at Shea Stadium.

I actually in some sick way am rooting for the Mets to challenge us for the division. I want them to be somewhat useful and recreate the thorn in our sides like they were in the late 90's-'01.

[GovClintonTyree]

That was some of that Omar Minaya madness.

I wish Omar Minaya had signed me. I'm about tired of this work crap.

[Carp]

I'd rather sign both of them. Both are great players. BUt if I had to choose gun to my head I take Jason because his ceiling is way higher.

And what is the likelihood of reaching that ceiling? Wasn't you that said players are reaching their peak much earlier these days?

I do agree that the ideal situation would be to keep them both. But I'd say it's doubtful both will stay. Upton is way more likely to live up to a 100 million dollar contract than Jason, imo.

[Carp]

For the best defensive RF'er in the game, at only 24 years old, yes.

Granderson got 4/50 or 4/60.

With the increased revenue, he'd easily get 15 mil a year even though you may disagree.

No question he gets that.


Jason isn't close to the best RFer in the game as long as Braun mans LF, unless his Jason's offense improves dramatically. I personally would put Stanton and Bautista over Heyward though in a normal yr I'd the difference is negligible. Puig and Blackmon are knocking on the door as well.

[Heyward]

Jason isn't close to the best RFer in the game as long as Braun mans LF, unless his Jason's offense improves dramatically.

Defensively, i didnt say overall he was.

[jpx7]

It's put up or shut up time.

Says who?

[The Chosen One]

It's put up or shut up time.

I may be getting senile since I turned 24 yesterday, but when has Jason every ran his mouth about anything? He seems like an quiet dude most of the time. Even guys that went to school with him that I've met all said he was pretty laid back, not a loudmouth, just chill.

I've never seen Jason talk garbage or give the media some dinner like Harper has. He's always generally a very positive guy when the mic is in his face.

[CyYoung31]

Said this before a few days ago and will say it again. Nationals are like the whiny kids trying to show the adults they're ready to play with the big boys.

The Mets will always be our #1 Rival. Not Philly, not Washington, not Florida.

The first game at Shea after 9/11, as a Braves fan I could not have asked for a better finish. Sucked losing, but I was not mad about losing that night at all.

I remember the 2001 offseason the Mets STACKED their team with a bunch of veterans to challenge us. Alomar, Burnitz, Mo Vaughn, etc. Up to that point the only move we made was signing Vinny to play 3rd after his decent season in Tampa.

That offseason looked doomed until JS pulled off the Sheffield trade and suddenly we had a race. I remember the first series in 2002 where the Mets lit up Smoltz for 8 runs in one inning I think it was. Sucks that the Mets sucked that year, because I've always liked the games we played at Shea Stadium.

I actually in some sick way am rooting for the Mets to challenge us for the division. I want them to be somewhat useful and recreate the thorn in our sides like they were in the late 90's-'01.

The Mets were never a thorn in our side. We are, and have been aside from 2006, their daddy, even worse than we have been to the Nats lately.

[zitothebrave]

And what is the likelihood of reaching that ceiling? Wasn't you that said players are reaching their peak much earlier these days?

I do agree that the ideal situation would be to keep them both. But I'd say it's doubtful both will stay. Upton is way more likely to live up to a 100 million dollar contract than Jason, imo.

Jason's already shown a better ceiling though. Justin for Sure has shown more with the bat so far, but he's at best average with the glove. And you have to think about what happens if we keep one over the other. Keeping Justin likely means he moves to RF an dwe have Terds in LF meaning our OF defense goes from one of the best with Jason patrolling RF to maybe one of the worst in a hurry. Jason doesn't quite have the offensive ability of Justin (or at least hasn't shown it) But their career averages on offense are basically equal. Jason at 117 wRC+ and Justin at 121.

Again we should do everything in our power to keep Justin, but for me the best argument to keep Justin is that he's right handed. He's not shown to be a better player than Heyward.

[gtcway]

I think in a few years we will be glad the Braves chose to invest in Freeman over Heyward much like they did with McCann and Franceour.
I hope he gets better but don't believe he will turn into the hitter that deserves the contract it will take to keep him with the Braves.

I admit, I don't always read the whole game threads but it seems like everyone knows his approach at the plate, from his spot in the box to his always trying to pull everything, is really bad but he seems to get a pass.

I see a player who might one day live up to his potential but I don't think it will be with the Braves.

[thethe]

The goal should be to keep both but again you can't just pay Jason what his WAR numbers suggest if he doesn't hit. His offense is really hurting the club right now moreso than his defense is helping. I have faith in him and would offer him 15-18M per year right now but I don't think I could justify going more than that.

[zitothebrave]

Jason isn't close to the best RFer in the game as long as Braun mans LF, unless his Jason's offense improves dramatically. I personally would put Stanton and Bautista over Heyward though in a normal yr I'd the difference is negligible. Puig and Blackmon are knocking on the door as well.

Since 2010 Jason has the 3rd highest fWAR for a RG in baseball. 2nd best full time RF in baseball. Some guys like Justin, Choo, and Stanton out hit him, but he massively out classes them defensively. Heyward isn't Gerardo Parra where all his value is generated defensively. I'ts some weird myth that Jason hasn't hit. No he's not hitting like an MVP. But most guys aren't MVPs. I don't recall anyone complaining about Freddie's offense before last year. Which was equal to Jason's. Of course Freddie had an offensive explosion last year and people now really latch onto him, but no one complained about Freddie's offense and he was obviously not as good defensively as Jason.

Also **** Puig. Most overrated player in baseball. Mother****er has 10% LD rate and a .300 BABIP. That's stupid good luck.

[zitothebrave]

The goal should be to keep both but again you can't just pay Jason what his WAR numbers suggest if he doesn't hit. His offense is really hurting the club right now moreso than his defense is helping. I have faith in him and would offer him 15-18M per year right now but I don't think I could justify going more than that.

No you don't pay him on his WAR because defense peaks early. But you're way overreacting to a small sample offensively. Only concerning number with Jason is that his K rate is up from last year and his power is low now. But Jason usually tacks on his homers in bunches. So even though it's been a cold streak he may snap off 3 in a week before having another cold streak. Jason has an impossibly low .239 BABIP Someone who hits around 20% line drives like Jason and has his speed shouldn't have a BABIP below .300 normally. If his HR/FB was closer to his career average, and his BABIP was .300 his slash would be (rounding down even though I should round his hits up) .245/.336/.394. Not amazing, but considering that's not involving any kind of normalization of his doubles total or the likely lower K numbers that will come in a larger sample.

Heyward has sucked offensively so far this year, but nothing about his approach or results on batted balls aside from HR/FB screams anything out of the ordinary. He's right around his career averages his discipline stats as well. He's up on some down on some, but nothing crazy. It's not like he's all of the sudden chasing an abnormally large amount of balls out of the zone.

[thewupk]

Since 2010 Jason has the 3rd highest fWAR for a RG in baseball. 2nd best full time RF in baseball. Some guys like Justin, Choo, and Stanton out hit him, but he massively out classes them defensively. Heyward isn't Gerardo Parra where all his value is generated defensively. I'ts some weird myth that Jason hasn't hit. No he's not hitting like an MVP. But most guys aren't MVPs. I don't recall anyone complaining about Freddie's offense before last year. Which was equal to Jason's. Of course Freddie had an offensive explosion last year and people now really latch onto him, but no one complained about Freddie's offense and he was obviously not as good defensively as Jason.

Also **** Puig. Most overrated player in baseball. Mother****er has 10% LD rate and a .300 BABIP. That's stupid good luck.

Don't try and post facts into this thread. The same people that think Heyward sucks are the same people that thought Francoeur was awesome with his 100 RBI seasons.

[thethe]

No you don't pay him on his WAR because defense peaks early. But you're way overreacting to a small sample offensively. Only concerning number with Jason is that his K rate is up from last year and his power is low now. But Jason usually tacks on his homers in bunches. So even though it's been a cold streak he may snap off 3 in a week before having another cold streak. Jason has an impossibly low .239 BABIP Someone who hits around 20% line drives like Jason and has his speed shouldn't have a BABIP below .300 normally. If his HR/FB was closer to his career average, and his BABIP was .300 his slash would be (rounding down even though I should round his hits up) .245/.336/.394. Not amazing, but considering that's not involving any kind of normalization of his doubles total or the likely lower K numbers that will come in a larger sample.

Heyward has sucked offensively so far this year, but nothing about his approach or results on batted balls aside from HR/FB screams anything out of the ordinary. He's right around his career averages his discipline stats as well. He's up on some down on some, but nothing crazy. It's not like he's all of the sudden chasing an abnormally large amount of balls out of the zone.

I think Keith Law had a piece where he showed how shifts are lowering BABIP. I've thought that in the past and have said so on numerous occasions. Until Jason learns to go the other way consistently I think his BABIP will continue to underperform the underlying numbers.

[zitothebrave]

I think Keith Law had a piece where he showed how shifts are lowering BABIP. I've thought that in the past and have said so on numerous occasions. Until Jason learns to go the other way consistently I think his BABIP will continue to underperform the underlying numbers.

Shifts hurt you for grounders. Heyward's lost a few to the shift because of SS playing up the middle. But he has hit into some bad luck liners like smoking one but it goes right to the right fielder. Pretty much every left handed hitter and right handed hitter has a significant pull streak.

Personally I hope Jason works on his bunting. If he can get good at laying them down the 3B line he can put defenses out of the normal shift. Unlike most LH power hitters (Mac, Howard, Ortiz, etc.) Jason can fly. If he can learn that bunt technique to only use maybe once a week tops. it will cause the shift to soften and open up the middle a bit. That's where he's losing most his hits. Unlike Mac, Ortiz, and Howard Jason doesn't tend to crush grounders to the 2B hole. He hits his share over there but not at the frequency of those guys. He more loses his hits up the middle that are open to guys not on the shift.

[thewupk]

The only other thing I will say is that there was a 10 year period where Andruw was 3rd best position player in baseball despite 90% of Braves fans thinking he under performed becuase of his streaky offense. Now I'm not saying Jason is the defender that Andruw was but the same logic applies. Heyward is extremely valuable even if he never gets better as a hitter than he has currently shown in the majors. And I suspect if he stays with Atlanta for the majory of his career you will see the same ignorant things said about him that was said about Andruw.

[nsacpi]

I'll attempt to give a quick breakdown of Freeman, Heyward and Justin Upton using 2012-2014 numbers, but not undue weight to what is so far a small sample for 2014.

Line drive %: Freeman 27%, Heyward 20%, Justin 22%

BABIP: Freeman .350, Heyward .290, Justin .330

The numbers above are not for 2014, nor any a particular year, but what I think their underlying level is based upon what they've done in recent years and what I would expect on average from them over the next two or three seasons. Obviously, you will get variance from year to year and even more from month to month.

Adding a couple more:

Walk rate: Freeman 10%, Heyward 11%, Justin 11%
Strikeout rate: Freeman 18%, Heyward 20%, Justin 25%
ISO: Freeman .200, Heyward .190, Justin .200

Taking it all together, I think the ranking is fairly clear. Freeman, Justin and Jason in that order. But that is the ordering only for their hitting ability. Obviously there is more to being a player than hitting. And also obviously it is more difficult to quantify defensive value (and to some extent base running value) than it is hitting value. So difficult in fact that I won't attempt to do it here. I will note, however, that the fact that measuring those things is difficult does not mean that the front office can afford to ignore them. If anything it means you put more resources into trying to gain insights into them in order to get an edge over other teams.

[thethe]

Shifts hurt you for grounders. Heyward's lost a few to the shift because of SS playing up the middle. But he has hit into some bad luck liners like smoking one but it goes right to the right fielder. Pretty much every left handed hitter and right handed hitter has a significant pull streak.

Personally I hope Jason works on his bunting. If he can get good at laying them down the 3B line he can put defenses out of the normal shift. Unlike most LH power hitters (Mac, Howard, Ortiz, etc.) Jason can fly. If he can learn that bunt technique to only use maybe once a week tops. it will cause the shift to soften and open up the middle a bit. That's where he's losing most his hits. Unlike Mac, Ortiz, and Howard Jason doesn't tend to crush grounders to the 2B hole. He hits his share over there but not at the frequency of those guys. He more loses his hits up the middle that are open to guys not on the shift.

I'd love it if Jason bunted more. There is no way they would be able to shift him if he dropped 5-10 bunt attempts a week.

[The Chosen One]

I hate to say it, but if Heyward becomes a bust offensively, I think that broken jaw will have imparted a lot of the mental and psychological damage of the confidence he had up there at the plate.

[GovClintonTyree]

I'd rather sign both of them. Both are great players. BUt if I had to choose gun to my head I take Jason because his ceiling is way higher.

I'd choose Justin. He's clearly the superior offensive player, and the importance of defense, particularly at corner outfield positions, is overrated by advanced metrics.

DRS and UZR are just not terribly useful or predictive. Yes, Jason, Carlos Gomez and Gerardo Parra are excellent defensive outfielders, but their value does not eclipse that of an average one who is a great hitter, say, Giancarlo Stanton. I'm not sure how smart people stand behind a metric that consistently shows anomalies like that.

[UNCBlue012]

I'm so biased when it comes to how much I like Jason. haha but it can get a bit frustrating. His defense honestly makes up for much of his offensive fails, but he still is a productive at-bat more than not in my opinion. I don't understand what goes through his mind or why he doesn't move up a little bit to the plate, but he's not far from being a guy that can hit for a .280 AVG, .380 OBP, 20+ homers, 20+ steals and 70+ RBIs. Just my two-cents!

[gilesfan]

Jason now has 2300 PAs. His slash line is .256/.349/.435. That is almost identical to the average right fielder in that time frame.

I think bc of his athletic tools most Braves fans think that he could break out any moment (and he's still young). But, it may be time to not look at Jason as a future superstar and start looking at him as an above average to good right fielder. Average bat/great glove.

The lack of good defensive right fielders completely puts his WAR numbers out of wack. I would seriously consider moving him to CF full-time if he can maintain that high level defense in center. I don't think he's ever going to hit like the great RFers in the game. Put him in center where his value would sky rocket.

[gtcway]

It's not like we're waiting for Jason to reach the next level offensively based on hope, he has been to that level, in his rookie season. He's shown that he can do it, but unlike most hitters, he hadn't been able to stay at or surpass that level. It's like he isn't able to make the necessary adjustments to make himself a better hitter. I'm sure that ball to the face didn't help.
You guys can make all the excuses you like about freak injuries or baabip, but in the end he either produces or he doesn't. Even if he never gets any better than he is now, I hope to see him in right field for many more years, but not at the price he will want. You don't pay big bucks for defense.

[50PoundHead]

It's not like we're waiting for Jason to reach the next level offensively based on hope, he has been to that level, in his rookie season. He's shown that he can do it, but unlike most hitters, he hadn't been able to stay at or surpass that level. It's like he isn't able to make the necessary adjustments to make himself a better hitter. I'm sure that ball to the face didn't help.
You guys can make all the excuses you like about freak injuries or baabip, but in the end he either produces or he doesn't. Even if he never gets any better than he is now, I hope to see him in right field for many more years, but not at the price he will want. You don't pay big bucks for defense.

But there's this thing called "scouting" and they are pretty good at that at the big league level. Heyward's strengths and weaknesses are now known and the question has to be, "Is he making adjustments?" I don't think he's going to be a total bust offensively. His selectivity at the plate is likely going to produce a fair number of walks and defensively, he's golden. So it's not like he's this total stiff running around out there ala Uggla.

But he is going to have to make adjustments. I get tired of Joe Simpson's "go the other way" talk because it only tells half the story and insinuates that Heyward should become a Punch-and-Judy hitter. It's hitting the ball the other way with authority (and in Freeman, we've got a guy who does that as well as anyone in the bigs right now) that matters and I don't know if Heyward is ever going to be that guy. The problem Heyward has if he's going to stand that far off the plate, pitchers are going to work him low-and-away and if he continues to try to pull that pitch, he's never going to be a great hitter. He brings enough to the table that he doesn't have to be a great hitter, but, at least to me, it is what it is.

[Orphan Black]

I'll say it again...despite sucking offensively this season Jason is still tied for sixth best WAR in the NL at 1.2...the is with the negative offensive WAR. I'm not saying what Jason has done on offense is acceptable because of his defense, but it is what it is. I don't know that Heyward will ever be what everyone thought he would be, but he's on pace to put up a similar defensive WAR as Simmons last season.

[Enscheff]

The problem with defensive metrics is they assume you can add defensive contributions up to infinite, like offensive contributions. Problem is, on a macro level, you can only "prevent" as many runs as the other team would have scored. Offensive contributions can add up infinitely, but defensive ones can not.

Also, there is no way in any sane universe that Heyward has been as valuable as Freeman this year. Any stat that claims that is in dire need of re-evaluation.

[gilesfan]

The problem with defensive metrics is they assume you can add defensive contributions up to infinite, like offensive contributions. Problem is, on a macro level, you can only "prevent" as many runs as the other team would have scored. Offensive contributions can add up infinitely, but defensive ones can not.

Also, there is no way in any sane universe that Heyward has been as valuable as Freeman this year. Any stat that claims that is in dire need of re-evaluation.

Agreed. Or compare Stanton to Heyward. There just aren't enough plays available for a right fielder to make the type of impact that WAR claims to have been made. I don't think the "reward" for Heyward is justified based on having a handful of stiffs attempt to play RF.

[Hawk]

I personally don't like Jason in the leadoff position. It's not that he can't thrive there, or that he hasn't (at times) enjoyed success there -- but I can't help but wonder if the 'table-setter' mindset is messing with his swing. Move Andrelton up, bat Heyward 7/8, and let him figure things out in a different (more conventionally geared toward basic offensive production) role. Granted, given Andrelton's current approach, he's not exactly the best fit there either. I could get behind a TLS call-up if he was utilized as a leadoff hitter.

[Orphan Black]

I agree with you guys...in no way has Heyward been close to as valuable as Freeman or J. Up...or even Gattis. I can't even say that Heyward has had a positive effect on the team based on what I've seen, but the WAR stat seems to believe he has been somehow.

[Heyward]

I can't even say that Heyward has had a positive effect on the team based on what I've seen

:facepalm:

[Julio3000]

We're almost 200 posts into a Heyward thread and NO ONE has referenced his love for baseball or lack thereof?

[The Chosen One]

We're almost 200 posts into a Heyward thread and NO ONE has referenced his love for baseball or lack thereof?

Only took 173 posts.

[Tapate50]

LOL, what a difference a year makes in the tone of this thread.

[Orphan Black]

:facepalm:

I don't get it. To me his offensive struggles have exceeded his great defense so far this season despite what WAR says.

[Heyward]

I don't get it. To me his offensive struggles have exceeded his great defense so far this season despite what WAR says.

I agree you dont get it.

He's saved a ton of runs.

Defense matters greatly, ask our pitchers if his defense makes no difference the way you make it seem.

[gilesfan]

I agree you dont get it.

He's saved a ton of runs.

Defense matters greatly, ask our pitchers if his defense makes no difference the way you make it seem.

How many runs has he saved?

[Heyward]

How many runs has he saved?

15

[Orphan Black]

I agree you dont get it.

He's saved a ton of runs.

Defense matters greatly, ask our pitchers if his defense makes no difference the way you make it seem.

Whatever dude...I didn't say defense doesn't matter...I said his offense has hurt the team more than his defense has helped it no matter what WAR says. Learn to read.

[JohnAdcox]

How do you win ball games? SCORING MORE RUNS THAN THE OPPONENT. Not saving more runs than the opponent. Defense is important, but not as important as scoring runs, plain and simple.

Um, how so? Runs count the same, right? If I hit a home run and make an error that allows a run to score, I have contributed exactly 0 runs. If I make catches that save two, taking two off the other guy's total, and don't hit a lick, I have contributed two runs. How are the runs different?

As you say, you win by scoring more than the other guy. Keeping him from scoring is just as important.

Let's say we score two. The other guy scores one. If I hadn't saved those two runs, the other team wins three to two. The two runs I contributed with my glove were the difference in the game.

[gtcway]

Um, how so? Runs count the same, right? If I hit a home run and make an error that allows a run to score, I have contributed exactly 0 runs. If I make catches that save two, taking two off the other guy's total, and don't hit a lick, I have contributed two runs. How are the runs different?
As you say, you win by scoring more than the other guy. Keeping him from scoring is just as important.

Let's say we score two. The other guy scores one. If I hadn't saved those two runs, the other team wins three to two. The two runs I contributed with my glove were the difference in the game.

So does that mean that an average fielding great hitter with a war of 6 is going to get a contract equal to an average hitting great defender who also has a war of 6?

[zitothebrave]

So does that mean that an average fielding great hitter with a war of 6 is going to get a contract equal to an average hitting great defender who also has a war of 6?

No which is why there's an inherent value to signing defensive talented players. Perfect example is the contracts Bourn signed vs. most other centerfielders.

[jsebe10]

Um, how so? Runs count the same, right? If I hit a home run and make an error that allows a run to score, I have contributed exactly 0 runs. If I make catches that save two, taking two off the other guy's total, and don't hit a lick, I have contributed two runs. How are the runs different?

As you say, you win by scoring more than the other guy. Keeping him from scoring is just as important.

Let's say we score two. The other guy scores one. If I hadn't saved those two runs, the other team wins three to two. The two runs I contributed with my glove were the difference in the game.

You go tell Heyward that's it's ok to hit .190 because he is saving runs. Ask him what a WAR is too...

[thewupk]

No which is why there's an inherent value to signing defensive talented players. Perfect example is the contracts Bourn signed vs. most other centerfielders.

Which is also why we got Simmons as cheap as we did.

[thewupk]

You go tell Heyward that's it's ok to hit .190 because he is saving runs. Ask him what a WAR is too...

I don't think anyone is saying it's okay to hit .190. But there are other parts of the game of baseball besides hitting. And using batting average is beyond stupid anyways.

[Modok]

I don't think anyone is saying it's okay to hit .190. But there are other parts of the game of baseball besides hitting. And using batting average is beyond stupid anyways.

Unfortunately, there isnt an offensive number you could use that would be a positive for him right now. =(

[Julio3000]

He's not good at the plate right now. I think he'll turn it around. I think that the game that he brings, assuming good health, is not only valuable, but undervalued, and I'd be comfortable signing him long term. He's hitting .194, and everyone's disappointed. Fine. But let's not underrate his past hitting performance, or pretend that his current struggles are going to persist indefinitely.

[thewupk]

Unfortunately, there isnt an offensive number you could use that would be a positive for him right now. =(

You are right there isn't. But the season is also a month old and anybody making decisions on a month of data is a fool. Heyward is a career 117 wrc+ hitter which includes this year and his horrible injury ridden 2011. The average for RF in that span is around a wrc+ of 107 which makes Heyward an above average hitter for his position. He also is among the best defensively and running the bases for his position too. Overall he is one of the better RFers in the game even with his inconsistent offense.

Like I said earlier. If he stays with Atlanta he will likely get the Andruw treatment from most fans who always want more and can't appreciate what he does give the team. It's sad really.

[Julio3000]

You are right there isn't. But the season is also a month old and anybody making decisions on a month of data is a fool. Heyward is a career 117 wrc+ hitter which includes this year and his horrible injury ridden 2011. The average for RF in that span is around a wrc+ of 107 which makes Heyward an above average hitter for his position. He also is among the defensively and running the bases for his position too. Overall he is one of the better RFers in the game even with his inconsistent offense.

Like I said earlier. If he stays with Atlanta he will likely get the Andruw treatment from most fans who always want more and can't appreciate what he does give the team. It's sad really.

^^^
That.

Minus the smiles and the fat jokes.

[Modok]

You are right there isn't. But the season is also a month old and anybody making decisions on a month of data is a fool. Heyward is a career 117 wrc+ hitter which includes this year and his horrible injury ridden 2011. The average for RF in that span is around a wrc+ of 107 which makes Heyward an above average hitter for his position. He also is among the best defensively and running the bases for his position too. Overall he is one of the better RFers in the game even with his inconsistent offense.

Like I said earlier. If he stays with Atlanta he will likely get the Andruw treatment from most fans who always want more and can't appreciate what he does give the team. It's sad really.

Being in RF hurts him as well. In center, I think his defensive ability would be more recognized.

[mossy]

^^^
That.

Minus the smiles and the fat jokes.

And Gold Club.

[Julio3000]

And Gold Club.

Who needs lesbian action when you've got crack?

[Heyward]

Being in RF hurts him as well. In center, I think his defensive ability would be more recognized.

He's too big to play CF every-day.

[Carp]

No which is why there's an inherent value to signing defensive talented players. Perfect example is the contracts Bourn signed vs. most other centerfielders.


I would hardly call the Bourn contract a good one. Unless you are comparing him to BJ's contract.

[mossy]

Who needs lesbian action when you've got crack?

What are you, Norm McDonald? And doesn't one lead to the other, or vice versa?

[NinersSBChamps]

So batting average is an ancient stat and should never be used, correct?

[Carp]

I'll say it again...despite sucking offensively this season Jason is still tied for sixth best WAR in the NL at 1.2...the is with the negative offensive WAR. I'm not saying what Jason has done on offense is acceptable because of his defense, but it is what it is. I don't know that Heyward will ever be what everyone thought he would be, but he's on pace to put up a similar defensive WAR as Simmons last season.

Which is one shouldn't put a lot of stock in defensive WAR, or defensive statistics in general

[zitothebrave]

Which is one shouldn't put a lot of stock in defensive WAR, or defensive statistics in general

Lol. Carpe the genius gives his 2 cents.

[Carp]

I agree you dont get it.

He's saved a ton of runs.

Defense matters greatly, ask our pitchers if his defense makes no difference the way you make it seem.


Apparently you don't understand defensive statistics and/or they're relation to WAR. Or you're just trolling.

[zitothebrave]

Apparently you don't understand defensive statistics and/or they're relation to WAR. Or you're just trolling.

And you're soooooo well versed on them. You're a regular John Dewan.

[Carp]

Lol. Carpe the genius gives his 2 cents.

Because it's true??

[Heyward]

Apparently you don't understand defensive statistics and/or they're relation to WAR. Or you're just trolling.

:facepalm:

[zitothebrave]

Because it's true??

Because it's not true. You have no facts to back yourself other than your gut. Which isn't a statistic.

[Carp]

And you're soooooo well versed on them. You're a regular John Dewan.

Forgive me for not putting stock into stats that are deemed only "accurate" based on a 3 yr sample. Yet we want to use a single season sample and factor it into actual value for a player? In what universe does that make sense?

Not to say that defensive stats are completely useless. Give a large enough sample you surely can tell to a certain degree how good/bad a person performed defensively. But there's way you can put an exact value on that defense and there is too much variance and personal bias/subjectivity to call defensive stats accurate. Certainly not over a single season (or 1 month, in this case).

[Carp]

:facepalm:


:facepalm:

Indeed if you actually believe Heyward has been one of the top 10 most valuable players in the NL this yr.

[zitothebrave]

yeah, that's not how they work. Maybe you should go do some reasearch. Obviously in larger samples like offensive stats, defensive stats normalize longer time. Heyward's defensive stats are static in his first month, but so are his offensive stats. People don't go we're not gonna count their offensive contributions so far because you need a larger sample.

[Heyward]

:facepalm:

Indeed if you actually believe Heyward has been one of the top 10 most valuable players in the NL this yr.

Never said he was.

[Carp]

yeah, that's not how they work. Maybe you should go do some reasearch. Obviously in larger samples like offensive stats, defensive stats normalize longer time. Heyward's defensive stats are static in his first month, but so are his offensive stats. People don't go we're not gonna count their offensive contributions so far because you need a larger sample.

Except that defensive stats are subjective and can be subject to bias. Not to mention different metrics might have different rankings of the best/worst defenders. Defensive stats are nowhere near definitive, unlike (most) offensive stats. If a player goes 2-4 at the plate, it is a mathematical fact that his average is .500. That can't be argued.

And I never said you don't count his defensive contributions. It's just not possible to accurately calculate and value his defensive contributions, especially in such a short sample size.

[GovClintonTyree]

I agree you dont get it.

He's saved a ton of runs.

Defense matters greatly, ask our pitchers if his defense makes no difference the way you make it seem.

I get it just fine. If you believe that he's the sixth best player in the NL based on that silly-ass metric, I don't know what to tell you. He's not.

The metric is not even close. How you and Zito can continue to spout WAR numbers like they mean....well, anything - is completely beyond me. The metric is useless. It's wrong. It's not close to right. It's crap. It tells me nothing. The moment somebody signs Gerardo Parra to an eight year, $200m deal because his WAR is really up there, I'll concede you're right.

Until then, Zito and Heyward, how about backing off the WAR throttle a bit? You lose credibility every time your "analysis" includes it.

It's not more valid than Giles' or Carpe's or Orphan Black's gut feeling just because it's numeric. Your number is crap.

[GovClintonTyree]

Never said he was.

You absolutely did. You quote WAR like it is God-breathed. And he's sixth. Don't back down from your stupid-ass metric now. It's a number. It's got to be useful analysis. Right?

[The Chosen One]

If WAR is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?

[GovClintonTyree]

Except that defensive stats are subjective and can be subject to bias. Not to mention different metrics might have different rankings of the best/worst defenders. Defensive stats are nowhere near definitive, unlike (most) offensive stats. If a player goes 2-4 at the plate, it is a mathematical fact that his average is .500. That can't be argued.

And I never said you don't count his defensive contributions. It's just not possible to accurately calculate and value his defensive contributions, especially in such a short sample size.

Certainly sample size, Carpe, but there something missing in terms of the relationship between the value of offense and defense. I think Giles is on to something when he says there just aren't enough balls hit to RF to make that much difference in the game. He's right. And yet a .194 hitter has a 1.2 WAR 15% of the way into the season because he has ostensibly saved 15 runs? No.

I think for a RF, defense is maybe 15-20% of the job. In center it's more and at short it's a big chunk of the game. For instance, I can believe Simmons is among the best at short because of his glove even with middling offense (last year).

I'm hoping this new defensive measurement system I heard about in spring training can clean up some of this foolishness that Zito and a few other heavy statheads throw out as gospel.

It'd be great to have one number with which to accurately value a player against his peers, but WAR - as currently configured - ain't it.

[GovClintonTyree]

If WAR is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?

Hahahahahahahahahaha!

No se', Frenchie. Soy sordo.

[GovClintonTyree]

And you're soooooo well versed on them. You're a regular John Dewan.

It's like being well-versed in the sun orbiting around the earth, Zito. It's a really nice try, but your metric is wrong. It's crap. It means nothing.

[zitothebrave]

Except that defensive stats are subjective and can be subject to bias. Not to mention different metrics might have different rankings of the best/worst defenders. Defensive stats are nowhere near definitive, unlike (most) offensive stats. If a player goes 2-4 at the plate, it is a mathematical fact that his average is .500. That can't be argued.

And I never said you don't count his defensive contributions. It's just not possible to accurately calculate and value his defensive contributions, especially in such a short sample size.

But the valuation of that .500 varies. If it's 2 singles, that's not the same as 2 doubles. Or 2 singles and a walk. Then you slide to OPS which on the OBP value values hits equally to walks, and on the SLG side double counts hits as every hit registers a base which factors into OBP. You can slide to wOBA which is the best offensive rate stat that we have. But Linear weights are not 100% perfect. The value of a walk is not necessarily the same every single year and a hundredth or thousandth of a point move may not have a gigantic effect but it's screwing up the valuation.

You don't understand defensive stats. I get it. Instead of blurting out that they're invalid, maybe you should just ignore them (which you do already) and not make ignorant statements about them. No stat that applies value is perfect. And no valuation is even remotely close to perfect. If you think that based on what you want to believe that you can accurately prescribe value, then you're a fool because you're certainly not a better judge than advanced metric.

[zitothebrave]

It's like being well-versed in the sun orbiting around the earth, Zito. It's a really nice try, but your metric is wrong. It's crap. It means nothing.

Lol, that's so funny. I'd like to see your research into why the metric is crap. I'll wait patiently.

[zitothebrave]

I get it just fine. If you believe that he's the sixth best player in the NL based on that silly-ass metric, I don't know what to tell you. He's not.

The metric is not even close. How you and Zito can continue to spout WAR numbers like they mean....well, anything - is completely beyond me. The metric is useless. It's wrong. It's not close to right. It's crap. It tells me nothing. The moment somebody signs Gerardo Parra to an eight year, $200m deal because his WAR is really up there, I'll concede you're right.

Until then, Zito and Heyward, how about backing off the WAR throttle a bit? You lose credibility every time your "analysis" includes it.

It's not more valid than Giles' or Carpe's or Orphan Black's gut feeling just because it's numeric. Your number is crap.

WAR is absolutely important. Is it important to everyone? No of course not. But you can bet your asses that GMs are looking at that stat when making moves. I think there was a heck of a reason why you don't see "underrated" players sit on the market. I think there was a great reason why Ervin sat on the market so long because people considered advanced stats. If you don't think that GMs utilize WAR, UZR, DRS, etc. then you're a fool. Of course with Field f/x they have something we dont' have access to which is better than advanced metrics we have now. But saying because UZR and DRS isn't perfect so we should throw them out

I hate analogies, but here's the best one I can come up with to explain why defensive stats matter and your believe that "nothing is close" or whatever is foolish. Do you drive a car or use a computer? Neither of them are perfect, new things constantly come out. Do you just live in the stone age waiting for something perfect to come out? Or do you utilize the best available tools that are on the market?

As far as Parra goes, no one would pay him 200M based on WAR. Should Chris Johnson get paid 200M cause he hit .340? Players in one year samples create noise. Parra had a fluke high defensive year. So yeah his value was skewed, but was Chris Johnson's not skewed last year? Will potentially Aaron Harang's not be skewed this year? I mean this idea that a stat is flawed because of 1 year variances is entirely moronic as all stats have variances. Parra is a solid player. He's not a world beater but he's a complimentary player. Probably similar to a less versatile Prado. Good guy to have if you need to fill a hole and can't afford to spend over 10M but can spend 6-8 or so on him.

You can keep making tired arguments, you have no case. You don't get defensive metrics, I get it. It's OK to not get it. I don't get string theory but I don't walk around calling it a silly-ass theory. If you understood advanced metrics more you'd realize why they're used, because they're the best we've got. I'd love field f/x. but that data may never be available to us. So we'll have to rely on UZR and DRS to keep improving.

[zitothebrave]

Certainly sample size, Carpe, but there something missing in terms of the relationship between the value of offense and defense. I think Giles is on to something when he says there just aren't enough balls hit to RF to make that much difference in the game. He's right. And yet a .194 hitter has a 1.2 WAR 15% of the way into the season because he has ostensibly saved 15 runs? No.

I think for a RF, defense is maybe 15-20% of the job. In center it's more and at short it's a big chunk of the game. For instance, I can believe Simmons is among the best at short because of his glove even with middling offense (last year).

I'm hoping this new defensive measurement system I heard about in spring training can clean up some of this foolishness that Zito and a few other heavy statheads throw out as gospel.

It'd be great to have one number with which to accurately value a player against his peers, but WAR - as currently configured - ain't it.

Well it's simple, it doesn't matter how many plays a RF makes. Lets say to keep it simple, jason makes 4 plays that no other RF makes, all of them save triples. We know that triples are worth about a run a pop so we know that Heyward saved 4 runs. Of course we know in advanced metrics things aren't that simple. Because even the plays Heyward makes that others make, not everyone makes os he deserves credit for that and he deserves knocks for ones that he doesn't make but others do as well.

Read the fielding bible. just read it. No one I know who didn't read it still says fielding stats are crap. They're not perfect. There's some variance but we're not talking about a full WAR swing in variance. These stats take much much more into account than you give credit for.

And FWIW to your and gilesfan's beliefs. heyward has already at least had 54 balls to make a play on as that's the number of putouts he's had. What advanced stats do is thne take that number and correlate many things. For example some RFs may have worse stats because even if they get more putouts, it's because they're getting mroe opportunities.

Stats are muddy whenever you try to put a valuation on them. But to just ignore stats because of that muddiness we would have nothing to value a player on because literally every stat has valuation issues. If you don't want to use WAR that's fine. But calling it a crap stat is foolish, just because in your mind it doesn't make sense.

[thewupk]

So batting average is an ancient stat and should never be used, correct?

when talking about how good a player is offensively, no. there can be poor hitters that hit 280-300 and good hitters that hit 250.

[thewupk]

Forgive me for not putting stock into stats that are deemed only "accurate" based on a 3 yr sample. Yet we want to use a single season sample and factor it into actual value for a player? In what universe does that make sense?

Not to say that defensive stats are completely useless. Give a large enough sample you surely can tell to a certain degree how good/bad a person performed defensively. But there's way you can put an exact value on that defense and there is too much variance and personal bias/subjectivity to call defensive stats accurate. Certainly not over a single season (or 1 month, in this case).

You put stock in pitching and offensive numbers when they can have a huge luck factor tied to them in BABIP. That's why you take what actually happened on the field. Sometimes bad hitters have good years and vice versa. It doesn't mean we don't take what actually happened that year and see how valuable they were.

[Runnin]

I like Jason as a player and person and his defense and hustle are first rate, but there's no way a batter can do all that grippiddoo stuff he does and be a great hitter. Since his initial success in the league he has been sliding downward, while Freeman and his simple, fundamentally sound mechanics has continued to improve.

I would fine Greg Walker $200 every time Jason does that re-gripping thing in the batter's box, which is the only thing holding Jason back.

[The Chosen One]

There was a stat box shown on the game last night.

Most homers under age 25 in the majors.

Stanton - 125
Heyward - 75
Freeman - 74
Trout - 68

It's insane that many of you are writing him off already.

Kid isn't even 25 yet, is in the same company as those other 3 including 2 injury hampered seasons, and plays elite defense for his position.

I get headaches watching him hit too, but I know in the long run Jason will be fine. The only concern I had was that broken jaw HBP affecting his batter psyche at the plate.

Now if he doesn't bring his offensive numbers back up and still plays elite glove does that warrant a Freeman sized contract? No. I say we have to re-sign him, unless we get outbid by the aging Yanks who need a player they can gamble on.

[zitothebrave]

I like Jason as a player and person and his defense and hustle are first rate, but there's no way a batter can do all that grippiddoo stuff he does and be a great hitter. Since his initial success in the league he has been sliding downward, while Freeman and his simple, fundamentally sound mechanics has continued to improve.

I would fine Greg Walker $200 every time Jason does that re-gripping thing in the batter's box, which is the only thing holding Jason back.

I don't know if the regripping thing is the cause of his problems. But in general simplifying a swing is usually better because less moving parts lead to less issues. But then again, the most important thing with hitting is comfort. If regripping makes Jason comfortable, odds are that he's a better hitter because of it. But I would try to get him to stop if I could.

[zitothebrave]

There was a stat box shown on the game last night.

Most homers under age 25 in the majors.

Stanton - 125
Heyward - 75
Freeman - 74
Trout - 68

It's insane that many of you are writing him off already.

Kid isn't even 25 yet, is in the same company as those other 3 including 2 injury hampered seasons, and plays elite defense for his position.

I get headaches watching him hit too, but I know in the long run Jason will be fine. The only concern I had was that broken jaw HBP affecting his batter psyche at the plate.

Now if he doesn't bring his offensive numbers back up and still plays elite glove does that warrant a Freeman sized contract? No. I say we have to re-sign him, unless we get outbid by the aging Yanks who need a player they can gamble on.

No he's a terrible. Why are you lying to us. His baseball is bad and he shoudl feel bad.

[GovClintonTyree]

But the valuation of that .500 varies. If it's 2 singles, that's not the same as 2 doubles. Or 2 singles and a walk. Then you slide to OPS which on the OBP value values hits equally to walks, and on the SLG side double counts hits as every hit registers a base which factors into OBP. You can slide to wOBA which is the best offensive rate stat that we have. But Linear weights are not 100% perfect. The value of a walk is not necessarily the same every single year and a hundredth or thousandth of a point move may not have a gigantic effect but it's screwing up the valuation.

You don't understand defensive stats. I get it. Instead of blurting out that they're invalid, maybe you should just ignore them (which you do already) and not make ignorant statements about them. No stat that applies value is perfect. And no valuation is even remotely close to perfect. If you think that based on what you want to believe that you can accurately prescribe value, then you're a fool because you're certainly not a better judge than advanced metric.

Zito, I could wave a whole bunch of credentials at you that would strongly suggest that your continued insinuation that you are smarter than the rest of us is foolish, indeed. I won't. I am tired of it, though.

I understand the need and desire to quantify defensive value and make that a component of assessing a player's overall value. I would like it, too. There are enough anomalies in the results of that effort that I think the whole attempt is in question. Heyward's WAR is an anomaly, there's no other conclusion to be drawn. And the stat's job is to cut through statistical anomalies and help people understand something.

I appreciate your continued acknowledgement that WAR isn't perfect, and understand your point that we take advantage of advances in products or technology that remain imperfect. I think where we differ is that you still get some use out of this as-yet imperfect rating system. I don't.

[GovClintonTyree]

Well it's simple, it doesn't matter how many plays a RF makes. Lets say to keep it simple, jason makes 4 plays that no other RF makes, all of them save triples. We know that triples are worth about a run a pop so we know that Heyward saved 4 runs. Of course we know in advanced metrics things aren't that simple. Because even the plays Heyward makes that others make, not everyone makes os he deserves credit for that and he deserves knocks for ones that he doesn't make but others do as well.

Read the fielding bible. just read it. No one I know who didn't read it still says fielding stats are crap. They're not perfect. There's some variance but we're not talking about a full WAR swing in variance. These stats take much much more into account than you give credit for.

And FWIW to your and gilesfan's beliefs. heyward has already at least had 54 balls to make a play on as that's the number of putouts he's had. What advanced stats do is thne take that number and correlate many things. For example some RFs may have worse stats because even if they get more putouts, it's because they're getting mroe opportunities.

Stats are muddy whenever you try to put a valuation on them. But to just ignore stats because of that muddiness we would have nothing to value a player on because literally every stat has valuation issues. If you don't want to use WAR that's fine. But calling it a crap stat is foolish, just because in your mind it doesn't make sense.

OK, I'll play.

So Heyward has had 54 balls hit in his zone (subjective, but sounds legit).

In 23 games (fact).

I'd say the huge majority of those are routine, meaning any professional fielder would get to them. (Subjective, but I think we can all agree there are routine plays.)

Another portion are hit such that no fielder could get to them. (Same, but that's subjective, too.)

There are four (in your example) that Heyward gets to that others wouldn't. (That sounds possible to me, maybe a little high, but I'll go along.)

They were going to be triples, but they're outs. (Going with it. Sounds ok.)

A triple is worth a run. Heyward has saved four runs. (Ok)

Heyward the poster says Heyward the outfielder has saved 15 runs (DRS) this season. (Bing! Mismatch.)

How is it possible that a statistic says the player has saved 15 runs when he's only had 54 chances to make a play? He didn't make 35% more plays than everybody else. He's a hell of an outfielder, but he didn't have that much impact. The statistic overweights what impact he can make standing out in right field.

I will take you up on your Fielding Bible suggestion, BTW. I don't need to understand more than I just outlined to know that the stat is wrong, but I would like to understand a bit more about the process of quantifying defense.

[GovClintonTyree]

I like Jason as a player and person and his defense and hustle are first rate, but there's no way a batter can do all that grippiddoo stuff he does and be a great hitter. Since his initial success in the league he has been sliding downward, while Freeman and his simple, fundamentally sound mechanics has continued to improve.

I would fine Greg Walker $200 every time Jason does that re-gripping thing in the batter's box, which is the only thing holding Jason back.

He's a tinkerer and a smart player. He's kind of caught in-between something he was trying, I think. He's too busy pre-swing, both with his fidgets and his triggers. The current pre-swing bat angle is just silly.

And he needs to get back to LC field. The point Freddie and Chipper were making about going back to your base swing was right on. Jason is so long he gets into a bad habit of trying to wrap everything, even and especially balls he should drive the other way. Otherwise, as Andy Van Slyke said, he's going to enjoy The Summer of Four to Three.

[50PoundHead]

There was a stat box shown on the game last night.

Most homers under age 25 in the majors.

Stanton - 125
Heyward - 75
Freeman - 74
Trout - 68

It's insane that many of you are writing him off already.

Kid isn't even 25 yet, is in the same company as those other 3 including 2 injury hampered seasons, and plays elite defense for his position.

I get headaches watching him hit too, but I know in the long run Jason will be fine. The only concern I had was that broken jaw HBP affecting his batter psyche at the plate.

Now if he doesn't bring his offensive numbers back up and still plays elite glove does that warrant a Freeman sized contract? No. I say we have to re-sign him, unless we get outbid by the aging Yanks who need a player they can gamble on.

I hate to break in here, but that's a fairly misleading table. Heyward has a full season of time on Freeman and a season and 3/4 on Trout. I'm not giving up on Heyward, but there are troubling signs here.

[50PoundHead]

He's a tinkerer and a smart player. He's kind of caught in-between something he was trying, I think. He's too busy pre-swing, both with his fidgets and his triggers. The current pre-swing bat angle is just silly.

And he needs to get back to LC field. The point Freddie and Chipper were making about going back to your base swing was right on. Jason is so long he gets into a bad habit of trying to wrap everything, even and especially balls he should drive the other way. Otherwise, as Andy Van Slyke said, he's going to enjoy The Summer of Four to Three.

Well stated.

[nsacpi]

I hate to break in here, but that's a fairly misleading table. Heyward has a full season of time on Freeman and a season and 3/4 on Trout. I'm not giving up on Heyward, but there are troubling signs here.

difference in plate appearances relative to Freeman is not that great: 2281 versus 2019. A little less than half a season.

[sturg33]

OK, I'll play.

So Heyward has had 54 balls hit in his zone (subjective, but sounds legit).

In 23 games (fact).

I'd say the huge majority of those are routine, meaning any professional fielder would get to them. (Subjective, but I think we can all agree there are routine plays.)

Another portion are hit such that no fielder could get to them. (Same, but that's subjective, too.)

There are four (in your example) that Heyward gets to that others wouldn't. (That sounds possible to me, maybe a little high, but I'll go along.)

They were going to be triples, but they're outs. (Going with it. Sounds ok.)

A triple is worth a run. Heyward has saved four runs. (Ok)

Heyward the poster says Heyward the outfielder has saved 15 runs (DRS) this season. (Bing! Mismatch.)

How is it possible that a statistic says the player has saved 15 runs when he's only had 54 chances to make a play? He didn't make 35% more plays than everybody else. He's a hell of an outfielder, but he didn't have that much impact. The statistic overweights what impact he can make standing out in right field.

I will take you up on your Fielding Bible suggestion, BTW. I don't need to understand more than I just outlined to know that the stat is wrong, but I would like to understand a bit more about the process of quantifying defense.

Yeah but it's not that simple without diving in further.

For example, if the bases are loaded an nobody was out, he saved at least 4 runs on the one play. Then you have to look even deeper about the run expectancy differences between a man on third with 0 out and rather than bases empty with one out, etc.

[Enscheff]

OK, I'll play.

So Heyward has had 54 balls hit in his zone (subjective, but sounds legit).

In 23 games (fact).

I'd say the huge majority of those are routine, meaning any professional fielder would get to them. (Subjective, but I think we can all agree there are routine plays.)

Another portion are hit such that no fielder could get to them. (Same, but that's subjective, too.)

There are four (in your example) that Heyward gets to that others wouldn't. (That sounds possible to me, maybe a little high, but I'll go along.)

They were going to be triples, but they're outs. (Going with it. Sounds ok.)

A triple is worth a run. Heyward has saved four runs. (Ok)

Heyward the poster says Heyward the outfielder has saved 15 runs (DRS) this season. (Bing! Mismatch.)

How is it possible that a statistic says the player has saved 15 runs when he's only had 54 chances to make a play? He didn't make 35% more plays than everybody else. He's a hell of an outfielder, but he didn't have that much impact. The statistic overweights what impact he can make standing out in right field.

I will take you up on your Fielding Bible suggestion, BTW. I don't need to understand more than I just outlined to know that the stat is wrong, but I would like to understand a bit more about the process of quantifying defense.

I'll start this off by saying I don't completely buy into DRS myself, but...

There are more plays than just fly balls. Cutting off balls in the gap and turning doubles/triples into singles/doubles also counts. Stopping runners from going 1st to 3rd (or taking any extra base) also counts.

The player also needs to have the chance to make a good play. For example, Trout can't rob a HR if nobody hits a wall scraper to CF. So, if Heyward just so happened to have a disproportionately large number of "hard" chances early in the season, his DRS could be absurdly high. And if he DID make those plays, then he DID save those runs.

I won't even bring up the possibility of classifying plays as "hard" as being subjective.

[Heyward]

There was a stat box shown on the game last night.

Most homers under age 25 in the majors.

Stanton - 125
Heyward - 75
Freeman - 74
Trout - 68

It's insane that many of you are writing him off already.

Kid isn't even 25 yet, is in the same company as those other 3 including 2 injury hampered seasons, and plays elite defense for his position.

I get headaches watching him hit too, but I know in the long run Jason will be fine. The only concern I had was that broken jaw HBP affecting his batter psyche at the plate.

Now if he doesn't bring his offensive numbers back up and still plays elite glove does that warrant a Freeman sized contract? No. I say we have to re-sign him, unless we get outbid by the aging Yanks who need a player they can gamble on.

Yankees have Gardner/Ellsbury in the outfield, although they could just move Beltran to DH and sign Heyward, but they'd be pretty lefty heavy.

[50PoundHead]

difference in plate appearances relative to Freeman is not that great: 2281 versus 2019. A little less than half a season.

But it's only 1 HR in the 262 AB difference.

[The Chosen One]

Why are we punishing Jason for being in the bigs a season early?

Jason was called up a year early because there were no more internal options in addition to being "ready". Of wren hadn't signed Glaus then freeman likely would've had the job.

And Freeman being a 1b is expected to be slugging more than a corner outfielder.

[GovClintonTyree]

Yeah but it's not that simple without diving in further.

For example, if the bases are loaded an nobody was out, he saved at least 4 runs on the one play. Then you have to look even deeper about the run expectancy differences between a man on third with 0 out and rather than bases empty with one out, etc.

So a lead off triple where the pitcher then punches out the side - he's not dinged for that? That's the converse of what you're describing. I wouldn't want to include the actual impact on runs. That would be horribly misleading and result in artificial volatility as to measuring the fielding skill.

[GovClintonTyree]

I'll start this off by saying I don't completely buy into DRS myself, but...

There are more plays than just fly balls. Cutting off balls in the gap and turning doubles/triples into singles/doubles also counts. Stopping runners from going 1st to 3rd (or taking any extra base) also counts.

The player also needs to have the chance to make a good play. For example, Trout can't rob a HR if nobody hits a wall scraper to CF. So, if Heyward just so happened to have a disproportionately large number of "hard" chances early in the season, his DRS could be absurdly high. And if he DID make those plays, then he DID save those runs.

I won't even bring up the possibility of classifying plays as "hard" as being subjective.

Yeah, ok....

I know it bugs me that at least one of those systems measures batted balls only and leaves off (at 1B) the very important skill of picking, and that everybody's blindfolded and swinging at a piñata trying to measure catcher value. I like the framing, blocking, throwing, calling matrix, but again, a lot of subjective elements and data.

[DirkPiggler]

Why are we punishing Jason for being in the bigs a season early?

Jason was called up a year early because there were no more internal options in addition to being "ready". Of wren hadn't signed Glaus then freeman likely would've had the job.

And Freeman being a 1b is expected to be slugging more than a corner outfielder.

This brings up something I've been thinking about with Jason's recent struggles and Bryce Harper's underwhelming start to the year.

Are teams doing their young stars a disservice by bringing them up so early? Obviously both Heyward and Harper were able to contribute at a pretty high level as soon as they got to the show, but would they have been even better had they been left in the minors for another year of seasoning? They have both been very good players, but neither has performed like the superstars they were projected to be yet. Or maybe I'm just expecting them to play like three and four year veterans instead of as guys who are in their early 20s.

[gilesfan]

This brings up something I've been thinking about with Jason's recent struggles and Bryce Harper's underwhelming start to the year.

Are teams doing their young stars a disservice by bringing them up so early? Obviously both Heyward and Harper were able to contribute at a pretty high level as soon as they got to the show, but would they have been even better had they been left in the minors for another year of seasoning? They have both been very good players, but neither has performed like the superstars they were projected to be yet. Or maybe I'm just expecting them to play like three and four year veterans instead of as guys who are in their early 20s.

Bryce has a slash line of .273/.353/.476...how would you keep that in the minors?

Do people really project 21 year olds to be superstars at that age or future superstars?

[tomahawkchop10]

To me it's pretty clear that at this point in his career Jason is just a streaky player. I have no doubt if he stays healthy he will finish the year with pretty good offensive numbers, and great defense and base running. Making him a very valuable player. Worst case scenario we have a young, athletic, elite defensively RFer with decent offensive production. Best case scenario, Jason becomes more consistent as he gets older and we have an mvp candidate. Either way I'm happy to have him in Atlanta.

[Hawk]

Trading places: Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman on divergent paths

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20140430/jason-heyward-freddie-freeman-atlanta-braves/#ixzz30OwfIMmJ

When Heyward was a prospect, the consensus was that his swing, though slightly unorthodox, worked for him, so extreme was his talent. As it has turned out, the scout says, it is the one thing that has separated him from greatness, giving pitchers a clearly identifiable hole to attack. "He's easy to pitch to if you're willing to pitch inside," the scout said. "The ball he hits well is the ball out away from him. Anybody that pounds him in can get him. That's why Niese hit him: He went up and in, and Heyward's a diver. If pitchers pitch around him, on the outer half, he'll crush it. But power guys can get him out all day inside."

[Heyward]

Trading places: Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman on divergent paths

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20140430/jason-heyward-freddie-freeman-atlanta-braves/#ixzz30OwfIMmJ

When Heyward was a prospect, the consensus was that his swing, though slightly unorthodox, worked for him, so extreme was his talent. As it has turned out, the scout says, it is the one thing that has separated him from greatness, giving pitchers a clearly identifiable hole to attack. "He's easy to pitch to if you're willing to pitch inside," the scout said. "The ball he hits well is the ball out away from him. Anybody that pounds him in can get him. That's why Niese hit him: He went up and in, and Heyward's a diver. If pitchers pitch around him, on the outer half, he'll crush it. But power guys can get him out all day inside."

I agree, he needs to move closer to the plate.

[Hawk]

I agree, he needs to move closer to the plate.

It seems like such an obvious fix. And Heyward has shown a willingness in the past to tweak his approach. Why isn't it being suggested?

[50PoundHead]

Why are we punishing Jason for being in the bigs a season early?

Jason was called up a year early because there were no more internal options in addition to being "ready". Of wren hadn't signed Glaus then freeman likely would've had the job.

And Freeman being a 1b is expected to be slugging more than a corner outfielder.

I'm not punishing Heyward. I just find it tragicomic that people keep rationalizing his uneven performance with excuses.

What Hawk has posted is pertinent. You work Heyward up-and-in/low-and-away and he's going to have problems. He hasn't adjusted and that tempers my optimism that he's going to be the guy some thought he would be when he came up. He's still good, perhaps very good. But maybe what he showed us early is the best we're going to get. But I keep hearing a ton of odd arguments justifying his worth.

[nsacpi]

So if Heyward moves closer to the plate he won't be as vulnerable to the inside pitch. Is that what I'm hearing?

[Heyward]

So if Heyward moves closer to the plate he won't be as vulnerable to the inside pitch. Is that what I'm hearing?

Not inside, outside.

Teams can pitch him away, and he'll K or ground out to 2nd.

Not saying move right next to the plate but a few inches closer can surely help.

[gilesfan]

So if Heyward moves closer to the plate he won't be as vulnerable to the inside pitch. Is that what I'm hearing?

Yeah, I don't get it. You don't tell a "diver" to stand on the plate unless you completely revamp his approach.

[50PoundHead]

So if Heyward moves closer to the plate he won't be as vulnerable to the inside pitch. Is that what I'm hearing?

Not from me. I think that if he's going to stand that far off the plate, he's going to have to learn to hit to the opposite field with authority. To me, his weakness is he still rolls over on low/outside pitches and hits ground balls to second base.

[gilesfan]

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&player=518792&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=04/30/2014&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1