GDT #69. 6/16 7:10 PM (EDT) Phillies(Hamels) @ Braves(Teheran)

[nsacpi]

So Deck Chairs on the Titanic will be our theme this season. To be used ironically by those like me who think this team is pretty good and just needs some slight tinkering. And to be used with heartfelt sincerity by those who think it is doomed, utterly doomed.

[50PoundHead]

I don't think the team is doomed, but it is a team that has to play more flawlessly than other teams to be successful and that becomes even more difficult with this set of players (some of whom have pretty noticeable flaws). I think KB21's post sums up a lot of my feelings, although I didn't have any trouble with the Santana signing.

[Tapate50]

Third. At some point, you have to question the structure of the team and evaluate Frank Wren for some of the poor free agent decisions he made. Dan Uggla, BJ Upton, the Chris Johnson extension, giving up a 1st round pick for Ervin Santana. This team owes Dan Uggla $24 million and is getting nothing out of him. Soon, they will be owing BJ Upton a lot of money to only get minimal production out of him. Honestly, the players that are keeping this team afloat right now are Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Evan Gattis, and Julio Teheran.

We have been over the FA stuff to death. In what world is it his fault players don't play up to their career norms ?

[50PoundHead]

We have been over the FA stuff to death. In what world is it his fault players don't play up to their career norms ?

I think Uggla was an accident waiting to happen. You just don't extend a guy that limited athletically to a contract that long. Tools aren't everything, but they still matter some. My gripe on B.J. Upton is the 5th year and the approximate $1.5 M - $2.0 M he appeared to go over market on him. That said, a CF was needed. But neither of these guys are what I would call a core player. The core guys we have now are Freeman, Heyward, and Upton the Younger (who, in fairness to Wren, was acquired at a bargain rate after he had forked over all that coin to Upton the Elder).

Let's play a mental exercise. Does Wren sign Upton the Elder to the contract he signed him to if he gets Upton the Younger before signing a CF? One problem I have with Wren is that many of his moves look good in isolation, but they don't make sense when viewed as part of the larger task. I think the Chris Johnson extension is going to fit into that category as well as the signing of B.J. Upton. Even if our budget is going to get bigger (and it looks like it will), that doesn't mean you simply spend money. You still have to spend it wisely and I don't think Wren always does.

[PurpleBrave]

So Deck Chairs on the Titanic will be our theme this season. To be used ironically by those like me who think this team is pretty good and just needs some slight tinkering. And to be used with heartfelt sincerity by those who think it is doomed, utterly doomed.

Are we too stubborn to make that tinkering though? Like batting BJ Upton 2nd every day...In hopes of what? He'll turn it around? Everyone with half a brain knows the Braves needed a change at 2b and help at the top of the order. It seems that we may have both in one player but he's always buried batting 7th, arguably the least important spot in the order. Can we entertain the idea of batting Heyward somewhere else besides lead off?

Do I believe we can tinker and improve? Yes...it's possible, but Gonzalez and Wren haven't shown a lot of willingness to do so. Outside of batting the pitcher 8th at least...

[nsacpi]

Are we too stubborn to make that tinkering though? Like batting BJ Upton 2nd every day...In hopes of what? He'll turn it around? Everyone with half a brain knows the Braves needed a change at 2b and help at the top of the order. It seems that we may have both in one player but he's always buried batting 7th, arguably the least important spot in the order. Can we entertain the idea of batting Heyward somewhere else besides lead off?

Do I believe we can tinker and improve? Yes...it's possible, but Gonzalez and Wren haven't shown a lot of willingness to do so. Outside of batting the pitcher 8th at least...

They've done the most obvious things that had to be done. Drop Uggla. Start increasing Gattis' playing time (four straight games yesterday). Those were the most important and obvious changes that had to be made imo.

La Stella to #2 in the lineup would be a good move too.

Picking up some bullpen help, presumably a lefty, would help as well.

[Enscheff]

The plan was probably to break TLS in by hitting him in a low pressure spot for a while. He now has 70 MLB PAs, and while I'm sure we can all agree he isn't really a .387/.449/.419 hitter, it is beyond obvious he needs to be in the top half of this lineup (either 1, 2, or 5) with BJ dropped down to the bottom half.

Lineup optimizer says the top 5 should be TLS, Justin, Heyward, Gattis, Freeman, and I agree. The order isn't super important, but I would definitely try to use Justin and Gattis to split up the 3 LHers as much as possible.

[nsacpi]

The plan was probably to break TLS in by hitting him in a low pressure spot for a while. He now has 70 MLB PAs, and while I'm sure we can all agree he isn't really a .387/.449/.419 hitter, it is beyond obvious he needs to be in the top half of this lineup (either 1, 2, or 5) with BJ dropped down to the bottom half.

Lineup optimizer says the top 5 should be TLS, Justin, Heyward, Gattis, Freeman, and I agree. The order isn't super important, but I would definitely try to use Justin and Gattis to split up the 3 LHers as much as possible.

I would go with:

Jason
La Stella
Justin
Gattis
Freeman
CJ
BJ
Simmons

Move each of the bottom 4 up a spot and bat Laird 8th when Gattis rests.

[zitothebrave]

I would go with:

Jason
La Stella
Justin
Gattis
Freeman
CJ
BJ
Simmons

Move each of the bottom 4 up a spot and bat Laird 8th when Gattis rests.

Can't have Freddie that low. JMO.

[gilesfan]

Why do you guys want our best hitter hitting 5th?

[Tapate50]

I think Uggla was an accident waiting to happen. You just don't extend a guy that limited athletically to a contract that long. Tools aren't everything, but they still matter some. My gripe on B.J. Upton is the 5th year and the approximate $1.5 M - $2.0 M he appeared to go over market on him. That said, a CF was needed. But neither of these guys are what I would call a core player. The core guys we have now are Freeman, Heyward, and Upton the Younger (who, in fairness to Wren, was acquired at a bargain rate after he had forked over all that coin to Upton the Elder).

Let's play a mental exercise. Does Wren sign Upton the Elder to the contract he signed him to if he gets Upton the Younger before signing a CF? One problem I have with Wren is that many of his moves look good in isolation, but they don't make sense when viewed as part of the larger task. I think the Chris Johnson extension is going to fit into that category as well as the signing of B.J. Upton. Even if our budget is going to get bigger (and it looks like it will), that doesn't mean you simply spend money. You still have to spend it wisely and I don't think Wren always does.

Uggla was off years simply beating us by himself. He was fresh off a 877 OPS campaign playing 159 games and was a huge position of need (RH Power at the 2b spot). There isn't a ton of RH Power just floating around at that spot. At the time, he was hitting homers in Turner field like it was his home park anyway. While there were a few naysayers at the length of the extenstion, he literally dropped off a cliff. A drop in production so severe Nostadamus would have been shocked to see. Most every FA\Extension transaction goes longer than it should. It is just the nature of the game of FA\Extensions these days. I expect they figured at the end of the extension they would have an overpaid vet on their hands, but not for the last 3 full years of the contract. That is squarely on Uggla.

Beej is\was overpaid, just like every FA signed in the initial parts of FA is. This is the danger of playing in the FA pool really. It is on him to actually perform up to at the very least career norms. Everything we read was saying how having them together was going to bolster both of their play. He went out and got the best defensive CF available with the highest offensive potential. I personally thought Victorino was a better choice (because he wasn't going to require the commitment that BJ did in both $ and years) but he has been pretty far from healthy the last few seasons. We were also coming of Druw years where we saw the value in a CF that can go and get it. I think that had a little to do with them wanting to have that CF that can stop a rally in its tracks, but that judgement seems to be misplaced.

Both guys were huge needs. Apparently Turner is where FAs go to pull their best Wile E. Coyote impression. With the exception of bargain bin pitchers that is.

[nsacpi]

Why do you guys want our best hitter hitting 5th?

wOBA numbers for 2014:

Gattis .399
Justin .379
Freddie .379

I don't think it matters much in which order these 3 bat, except I would try to avoid having 3 consecutive lefty hitters at the top of our lineup.

[gilesfan]

wOBA numbers for 2014:

Gattis .399
Justin .379
Freddie .379

I don't think it matters much in which order these 3 bat, except I would try to avoid having 3 consecutive lefty hitters at the top of our lineup.

sample size.

[nsacpi]

sample size.

Career wOBA

Freeman .360
Gattis .354
Justin .360

[sturg33]

Career wOBA

Freeman .360
Gattis .354
Justin .360

*Too big of sample

[nsacpi]

I don't disagree that Freeman is our best hitter. But the margin is not big.

[gilesfan]

Career wOBA

Freeman .360
Gattis .354
Justin .360

So Freeman best?

[gilesfan]

wRC+

Freeman 129
Upton 121
Gattis 126

[nsacpi]

wRC+

Freeman 129
Upton 121
Gattis 126

is wRC+ a counting stat?

[nsacpi]

So Freeman best?

As I said I don't disagree that Freeman is our best hitter. My point is that there is not much separating him, Upton and Gattis. So there isn't much to choose from in terms of which one hits where. Secondary factors such as separating same-handed hitters come into consideration.

I would try to avoid hitting Heyward, La Stella, Freeman 1-2-3.

[gilesfan]

is wRC+ a counting stat?

wRC+ accounts for park factors (Upton playing in Arizona)

[gilesfan]

As I said I don't disagree that Freeman is our best hitter. My point is that there is not much separating him, Upton and Gattis. So there isn't much to choose from in terms of which one hits where. Secondary factors such as separating same-handed hitters come into consideration.

I would try to avoid hitting Heyward, La Stella, Freeman 1-2-3.

I would too.

Heyward
Upton
Freeman
Gattis

then it really doesn't matter between Johnson, Upton, TLS, Simmons

[nsacpi]

wRC+ accounts for park factors (Upton playing in Arizona)

what I meant is it influenced by number of plate appearances

[thethe]

I think we need to find a way to move TLS up in the order and move BEEJ down. I think that means you have to either move Heyward or Freeman to fifth and Jasons elite baserunning would be better utilized in the third hole.

[nsacpi]

I think we need to find a way to move TLS up in the order and move BEEJ down. I think that means you have to either move Heyward or Freeman to fifth and Jasons elite baserunning would be better utilized in the third hole.

Heyward and TLS in the first two spots would be good.

Then I would have one or two right-handed hitters between those two and Freeman.

Those are the fundamentals. The variations within the theme are not worth getting exercised about.

[Dalyn]

Stella!
Justin
Heyward
Gattis
Freeman
CJ
BJ
Simmons
P

Best 6 players getting the most at-bats with the best #8 guy in that spot and our current top producer with some real protection behind him. Only way it could potentially improve is if you hit BJ 9th.

[gilesfan]

I'd say we have 3 tiers of hitters.

Freeman
Upton

Heyward
Gattis

TLS
CJ
BJ
Simmons


I would want to maximize/bunch the guys in the first 2 tiers as much as possible. Bc it's 2 righties and 2 lefties, it's easy to do.

Heyward
Upton
Freeman
Gattis

[nsacpi]

I'd say we have 3 tiers of hitters.

Freeman
Upton

Heyward
Gattis

TLS
CJ
BJ
Simmons


I would want to maximize/bunch the guys in the first 2 tiers as much as possible. Bc it's 2 righties and 2 lefties, it's easy to do.

Heyward
Upton
Freeman
Gattis

I think you're underestimating the value of having a high OBP player like La Stella ahead of your power hitters. His OBP track record is very impressive:

2011 .401 in Low A
2012 .386 in High A
2013 .422 in AA
2014 .384 in AAA
2014 .449 in the majors

Even if he is just a .370 OBP player going forward, that's high enough to justify hitting him first or second.

[gilesfan]

I like OBP and power at the top. Hate when managers put some middle infielder batting second that can bunt or hit and run. (watch college world series for extreme example)

[Enscheff]

I'd say we have 3 tiers of hitters.

Freeman
Upton

Heyward
Gattis

TLS
CJ
BJ
Simmons


I would want to maximize/bunch the guys in the first 2 tiers as much as possible. Bc it's 2 righties and 2 lefties, it's easy to do.

Heyward
Upton
Freeman
Gattis

Sorry, but TLS is clearly a better hitter than the players you grouped him in with.

The lineup needs to have Justin/Gattis hitting 2/4, and Heyward/Freeman/TLS hitting 1/3/5 in some order that doesn't have Freeman leading off.

All 3 of these options work just fine:

TLS, JUp, FF, Gattis, Heyward
Heyward, JUp, FF, Gattis, TLS
TLS, JUp, Heyward, Gattis, FF