Will Walden Eventually Replace Kimbrel?

[Gary82]

Walden has been a godsend to us. (Thanks Hanson!)

Talking Chop discusses Walden's season for us
http://www.talkingchop.com/2013/7/17/4527056/the-evolution-of-jordan-walden


Walden’s 0.7 fWAR is second among relievers to none other than Craig Kimbrel. His pre-All-Star Break numbers were stellar, putting up a 2.35 ERA/2.18 FIP/3.54 xFIP slash in 30.2 IP. He has maintained a career level strikeout rate, 28%, while dropping his walk rate from 10.5% to 7.2%, which are all obviously great signs

I won't say Kimbrel is 100 percent gone, but it's hard to justify signing him to a big contract. A contract which big market teams will definitely offer. So the question is, is Walden the heir apparent? And, do we try to trade Kimbrel this offseason?

No one is going to be as dominant as Kimbrel has been for us, but a guy like Walden will suffice. The team should focus on other needs, rather than forking out a lot of dough for a guy (albeit dominant) who pitches one inning per appearance. I'm not sure exactly what we could get for Kimbrel this winter, but teams will be climbing all over themselves to talk to us.

[Dalyn]

How quickly some forget how ****ty the 9th inning was after Smoltz and before Kimbrel.

[VirginiaBrave]

Why would we not wait at least for his walk year before dealing him? Makes no sense seeing how close we are to a WS. No sense in creating a problem where there is no problem.

[TURBO]

It just feels good to be confident when we have the lead late. IMgaine if EoF and Jonny were healthy.

[Carp]

Aren't Walden and Kimbrell FA's at the same time? Obviously Walden will be cheaper, but he won't exactly be "cheap." And that's if it stays healthy and good.

[Gary82]

I don't want Kimbrel to go, but the Braves are a mid market team. Does it really make sense financially to extend him?

Looking over his contract status, we still have some time left. So, this may just be something to think about for the future.

[Gary82]

How quickly some forget how ****ty the 9th inning was after Smoltz and before Kimbrel.

I remember Dan Kolb and Chris Reitsma very well.

[nsacpi]

Imo the pitcher in our system who is most likely to succeed Kimbrel as a closer is Luis Avilan.

[Dunit24]

If we dont plan on re-signing Kimbrel, we need to trade him while his stock is extremely high. Think of trading Rivera in his prime. #1 it would be stupid to do so, but #2 we would get a lot in return and #3 if we do trade him it better be to an AL team.

[Enscheff]

If there's one thing I trust Wren and the Braves to do, it's putting together an effective BP on a budget. They have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that they can build a good BP. We should be at the point now where we no longer question any roster moves related to BP construction.

Kimbrel is going to be expensive next year after his first trip through arb, but he won't be crazy expensive. If some team is willing to overpay for the right to make him the highest paid closer in the game, then Wren has to make that trade. If no team is willing to back up the prospect truck, then Wren should keep him for next year.

Having said that, I don't see the Braves paying Kimbrel $10M+ to pitch beyond 2014, so either this year or next year is most likely his last in an Atlanta uniform.

[nsacpi]

Wren is very good at putting together a bullpen. But he does screw up now and then. Last year he brought in Livan and Durbin. Livan didn't last long. And Durbin did only because the BABIP gods chose to smile on him last year.

[Nerfherders]

I suspect once the Yankees go through a season without Mo they will back up that truck for Kimbrel.

[ChapelHillMatt]

Wren is very good at putting together a bullpen. But he does screw up now and then. Last year he brought in Livan and Durbin. Livan didn't last long. And Durbin did only because the BABIP gods chose to smile on him last year.

I wouldn't call that screwing up. Those were low risk signings, a screw up is overpaying for a middle reliever.

[BRule]

Kim isn't going anywhere, I fully expect him to be a Brave for the next 7-8 years or more.

[Orphan Black]

Kimbrel's salary will go up exponentially once he hits arbitration in a year. It will be very difficult justifying paying him what he will get.

[Coredor]

The first year of arbitration isn't that bad and the second year will still be somewhat reasonable. He's an extremely valuable pitcher, and I have no objections to what he'll make during his arby years. However IF we could get a great haul I'd think about trading him. We don't have any glaring needs though so the only way we could help ourselves in a trade would be to get premium prospects who could offset the salaries of some of our young guys who will get paid in a year or two. We don't need to make a move though. We should just listen if someone is willing to give us a big haul. If not we just have the best closer in the game under control for 3 more years.

[Heyward]

Kim isn't going anywhere, I fully expect him to be a Brave for the next 7-8 years or more.

Not happening unless he took a team friendly extension.

Otherwise, he gone.

[Heyward]

If he would sign for around 8-10 million and the payroll jumps a bit, keep him.

Assuming that won't happen, try to trade him for a haul.

[cajunrevenge]

I think this was the idea when they traded for Walden. At the least it gave them options. Walden wont get a ton in arbitration because he doesnt have a lot of saves over the last 2 years. The way I see it its a big difference in salary plus a pretty good sized haul in whatever trade is made. This offseason will be a good point because the Yankees wont want to go from Rivera to a no name closer. Thats not the way they operate. They need the big name reliever with ridiculous stuff to satisfy their brain dead fan base. There are no good closers on the free agent market. David Robertson is a decent internal option but that leaves a big hole for the 8th inning.

If we make it deep into the playoffs I think we should keep Kimbrel because thats where elite closers really earn their pay.

[chipchildress]

I was laughed at in the offseason when i suggested the braves not blow through their available cash and use it to resign their best players. instead they give bj upton, rather predictably (not to this extent i know), a very very bad contract. whenever wren has FA money to spend, he feels like he has to overpay just for the sake of doing it it seems. as a result, the guys you really want to keep down the road become unattainable. it's horrible.

[zitothebrave]

We should offer Kimbrel a 5/50 contract after this offseason. Would go up to 60 on that deal. If we can buy out his arb years and 2 FA years that would be clutch. Normally I'm 100% opposed to paying relievers and to signing them for that long. But Kimbrel is a special case. This is someone who could become the greatest reliever of all time. While keeping him means for sure bye bye Medlen, possibly as soon as next year, I'd cope.

[AUTiger7222]

Imo the pitcher in our system who is most likely to succeed Kimbrel as a closer is Luis Avilan.

Luis Avilan? The guy that has almost as many walks (16) as strikeouts (20) in 39 innings to be closer? Yeah ok. I totally disagree.

[Heyward]

Imo the pitcher in our system who is most likely to succeed Kimbrel as a closer is Luis Avilan.

Walden/Graham or a FA would be my guess.

Love Avilan but he doesnt have closer stuff.

Or a guy we get in a trade for CK.

[AUTiger7222]

Walden/Graham or a FA would be my guess.

Love Avilan but he doesnt have closer stuff.

Or a guy we get in a trade for CK.

Or the guy the Braves just drafted in Jason Hirsh.

[zitothebrave]

Or the guy the Braves just drafted in Jason Hirsh.

hirsh has a good shot. Also think it ocudl be Graham but who knows if he even recovers enough from his shoulder injury to be a reliever.