nsacpi
07-21-2013, 12:31 PM
There is an interesting thread here about whether the Braves can win the World Series with the current rotation.
In reality there are many ways of winning and losing in baseball. You can't know ahead of time which tweak will make the critical difference, but even relatively unnoticed moves can take on importance. With that in mind I'd like to start a discussion on what should be done with respect to the pen for the rest of the 2013 season.
We have a strong foundation to build on in Kimbrel, Walden and Avilan. The remaining four spots are very much in the air. I feel that one will be filled by a trade for a lefty. Another (maybe 2) will be filled by a starter. We all know that Beachy and Wood are being prepared for a potential role in the rotation, so there will be a surplus there that will spill over into the pen.
I'll kick off the discussion by focusing on the last one or two spots. Kameron Loe just joined Carpenter, Varvaro and Ayala. I think ultimately only one or two of those four will still be in the pen come the post-season. If more than two are still around, it would be a bad sign imo.
So let's look at those four:
Carpenter has put up an x-FIP of 3.26 against righties and 4.20 against lefties this year. His career numbers are 3.59 and 4.89.
Varvaro has put up an x-FIP of 4.49 against righties and 4.26 against lefties this year. His career numbers are 3.75 and 4.87.
These numbers favor Carpenter and if you want to give more weight to very recent performance the case for Carpenter is even stronger.
Evaluating Loe and Ayala is a bit trickier because they haven't pitched much in the majors this year and have had longer and more varied careers. Their career numbers would be a bit misleading in terms of trying to get an idea of what they might give us this year.
Loe was a pretty good pitcher from 2010 to 2012, especially against righties. During this period he put up an xFIP below 3.0 against righties and about 3.7 against lefties. That Kameron Loe would be better than Carpenter or Varvaro. But while he showed some signs of turning things around in Gwinnett I don't think he has returned to that form. His strikeout rate in Gwinnett this year was more than 2 strikeouts per nine innings below the rate he had in the majors from 2010 to 2012. Given his AAA form, my guess is he would put up an xFIP of about 3.5 against lefties and 4.2 against righties this year in the majors. Which interestingly enough might make him a viable contender for the last spot in the pen. It will be interesting to see how he does in the majors the next few weeks.
What about Ayala. I think the most relevant numbers for Luis are from his 2012 season. He put up xFIPs of 3.62 against righties and 4.45 against lefties.
Based on very recent form, I think Carpenter is our best best. But I think Loe should not be discounted.
I would take the Cory Gearrin of 2011-2012 over any of those guys. But I'm not sure we'll be seeing that Cory Gearrin anytime soon. He hasn't pitched since being sent to AAA. I suspect he has some physical issues after the way Fredi used him earlier this year. It is a shame Fredi did not take a more far-sighted approach with Cory. I understand there is one guy in the pen each year who takes the abuse when necessary to save the rest of the pitching staff. Durbin last year. Linebrink in 2011. But Cory is a guy who I would have wanted to be healthy come September and October. It is a shame that Fredi did not see things the same way.
In reality there are many ways of winning and losing in baseball. You can't know ahead of time which tweak will make the critical difference, but even relatively unnoticed moves can take on importance. With that in mind I'd like to start a discussion on what should be done with respect to the pen for the rest of the 2013 season.
We have a strong foundation to build on in Kimbrel, Walden and Avilan. The remaining four spots are very much in the air. I feel that one will be filled by a trade for a lefty. Another (maybe 2) will be filled by a starter. We all know that Beachy and Wood are being prepared for a potential role in the rotation, so there will be a surplus there that will spill over into the pen.
I'll kick off the discussion by focusing on the last one or two spots. Kameron Loe just joined Carpenter, Varvaro and Ayala. I think ultimately only one or two of those four will still be in the pen come the post-season. If more than two are still around, it would be a bad sign imo.
So let's look at those four:
Carpenter has put up an x-FIP of 3.26 against righties and 4.20 against lefties this year. His career numbers are 3.59 and 4.89.
Varvaro has put up an x-FIP of 4.49 against righties and 4.26 against lefties this year. His career numbers are 3.75 and 4.87.
These numbers favor Carpenter and if you want to give more weight to very recent performance the case for Carpenter is even stronger.
Evaluating Loe and Ayala is a bit trickier because they haven't pitched much in the majors this year and have had longer and more varied careers. Their career numbers would be a bit misleading in terms of trying to get an idea of what they might give us this year.
Loe was a pretty good pitcher from 2010 to 2012, especially against righties. During this period he put up an xFIP below 3.0 against righties and about 3.7 against lefties. That Kameron Loe would be better than Carpenter or Varvaro. But while he showed some signs of turning things around in Gwinnett I don't think he has returned to that form. His strikeout rate in Gwinnett this year was more than 2 strikeouts per nine innings below the rate he had in the majors from 2010 to 2012. Given his AAA form, my guess is he would put up an xFIP of about 3.5 against lefties and 4.2 against righties this year in the majors. Which interestingly enough might make him a viable contender for the last spot in the pen. It will be interesting to see how he does in the majors the next few weeks.
What about Ayala. I think the most relevant numbers for Luis are from his 2012 season. He put up xFIPs of 3.62 against righties and 4.45 against lefties.
Based on very recent form, I think Carpenter is our best best. But I think Loe should not be discounted.
I would take the Cory Gearrin of 2011-2012 over any of those guys. But I'm not sure we'll be seeing that Cory Gearrin anytime soon. He hasn't pitched since being sent to AAA. I suspect he has some physical issues after the way Fredi used him earlier this year. It is a shame Fredi did not take a more far-sighted approach with Cory. I understand there is one guy in the pen each year who takes the abuse when necessary to save the rest of the pitching staff. Durbin last year. Linebrink in 2011. But Cory is a guy who I would have wanted to be healthy come September and October. It is a shame that Fredi did not see things the same way.