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zitothebrave
07-04-2013, 11:00 PM
Using fWAR

Some are kind shocking some are duhs.

But the top 10 position players

1. Chipper 85.1 - Duh
2. Andruw 65.1 - SHould be a duh
3. Aaron 52.7 - Man he was great
4. Murphy 44.9 - May shock some, but he wasn't special with the glove.
5. McCann - 28.0 - Awesome to see him here, easily the most underrated Brave of the modern era
6. Javy 26.4 - Not sure if it's shocking or not, he was ther ea long time
7. Justice 25.1 - Shame he couldn't have been around longer
8. Darrell Evans 23.7 - Unsure of him
9. Bob Horner 19.8 - Shame he couldn't be healthy
10. Jeff Blauser 19.6 - Largely due to his sample 5th highest of an Atlanta Brave I believe.

Top 5 Starting Pitchers

1. Smoltz 76.9 - Shouldn't be shocker, one of the leaders in IP High K low BB
2. Niekro 74.0 - Inning man, Basically a 1000 more than his nearest contemporary.
3. Maddux 71.6 - The one with the lowest IP of the 4 leaders most dominating
4. Glavine - 54.0 - Low man on the pole of the big 4, still very good.
5. Ron Reed 24.9 - Don't know much about him

Top 3 Relievers

Gene Garber 9.8 - Unsure of him but his 800+ IP is why he's the leader
Smoltz 8.3 - Obviously an all-time Brave great
Kimbrel - 7.7 - Likely will be the leader after next season, kid is special we need to try to find a way to keep him if at all possible.

weso1
07-04-2013, 11:11 PM
So Aaron is just 3rd because of his years in Milwaukee, right?

zitothebrave
07-04-2013, 11:16 PM
So Aaron is just 3rd because of his years in Milwaukee, right?

Correct, Aaron is far and away the Braves Franchise leader (Mathews is number 2 largely because of defense)

But the Braves top 5 is Aaron, Mathews, Chipper, Andruw, and Murph

Metaphysicist
07-04-2013, 11:40 PM
Ron Reed? Shows the folly of using fWAR for pitchers, if you ask me.

CyYoung31
07-05-2013, 01:39 AM
Further reason why Andruw's number should be retired.

The Chosen One
07-05-2013, 01:47 AM
Further reason why Andruw's number should be retired.

Perhaps they're waiting for him to retire from Baseball altogether?

CyYoung31
07-05-2013, 02:05 AM
Perhaps they're waiting for him to retire from Baseball altogether?

Doubtful, considering they keep giving people his number.

AUTiger7222
07-05-2013, 02:07 AM
Perhaps they're waiting for him to retire from Baseball altogether?

More than likely. Kinda surprising it wasn't taken out of circulation like Smoltz, Glavine and Maddux's numbers were after they left the Braves.

The Chosen One
07-05-2013, 02:11 AM
I mean he's still playing in Korea or Japan or something like that.

Justice is in the Braves HoF, I don't think they retired his #23 did they?

Bobby, Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz, Chipper, Hank, and Robinson's number are all retired I think. Well I guess Murphy and Matthews as well since hteir names and numbers are hanging on the stadium.

I think Andruw's case was different from Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux giong to other teams (and it was just implied not to use their # I guess). They all left the Braves after they existed their primes. Smoltz was what, 39 or 40 when he went to Boston, Glavine was mid 30's when he went to NY, and Maddux was on the wrong side of 35 when he went back to the Cubs. But since Andruw left around his prime basically, IDK.

Eventually I think they'll retire his number, or maybe they won't. If he makes it to Cooperstown, I could see them retiring it.

AUTiger7222
07-05-2013, 02:17 AM
Doubtful, considering they keep giving people his number.

Teams do that some times. Heck the Cubs have #31 retired twice for Fergie Jenkins and Greg Maddux. The Yankees have #8 retired twice for Yogi and someone else. The Braves let 3 people wear #41 after Eddie Mathews retired before retiring his number. The Yankees let 7 guys wear #3 after Babe Ruth.

AUTiger7222
07-05-2013, 02:22 AM
I mean he's still playing in Korea or Japan or something like that.

Justice is in the Braves HoF, I don't think they retired his #23 did they?

Bobby, Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz, Chipper, Hank, and Robinson's number are all retired I think. Well I guess Murphy and Matthews as well since hteir names and numbers are hanging on the stadium.

I think Andruw's case was different from Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux giong to other teams (and it was just implied not to use their # I guess). They all left the Braves after they existed their primes. Smoltz was what, 39 or 40 when he went to Boston, Glavine was mid 30's when he went to NY, and Maddux was on the wrong side of 35 when he went back to the Cubs. But since Andruw left around his prime basically, IDK.

Eventually I think they'll retire his number, or maybe they won't. If he makes it to Cooperstown, I could see them retiring it.

The Braves have 10 retired numbers.

3 - Dale Murphy
6 - Bobby Cox
10 - Chipper Jones
21 - Warren Spahn
29 - John Smoltz
31 - Greg Maddux
35 - Phil Niekro
41 - Eddie Mathews
44 - Hank Aaron
47 - Tom Glavine

Then there is of course #42 which is retired by MLB. I could easily see the Braves adding 3 more numbers to the list.

15 - Tim Hudson
16 - Brian McCann
25 - Andruw Jones

But those 3 maybe a long time from now. I'm talking 10-15 years from now. Maybe not as long for Huddy but certainly for McCann and Andruw. It has been absolutely amazing the Braves retired 5 numbers in 5 years. Just crazy when you think about it.

2009 - Greg Maddux
2010 - Tom Glavine
2011 - Bobby Cox
2012 - John Smoltz
2013 - Chipper Jones

I bet no other franchise has ever done that.

The Chosen One
07-05-2013, 02:29 AM
If McCann goes to another team after this year, I don't see them retiring his number.

I think Mac would have to play his career with us for them to retire his #.

Hudson would be interesting since he pitched arguably most of his dominant years in an Oakland A's cap. Andruw would be a lock for me, maybe not immediately after he retires, but a few years down the line like when they inducted Justice into the HOF in 2007 and he retired in 2002 I believe it was.

I wonder if they'd ever consider retiring Leo Mazzone's #.

AUTiger7222
07-05-2013, 03:04 AM
If McCann goes to another team after this year, I don't see them retiring his number.

I think Mac would have to play his career with us for them to retire his #.

Hudson would be interesting since he pitched arguably most of his dominant years in an Oakland A's cap. Andruw would be a lock for me, maybe not immediately after he retires, but a few years down the line like when they inducted Justice into the HOF in 2007 and he retired in 2002 I believe it was.

I wonder if they'd ever consider retiring Leo Mazzone's #.

I disagree. Here's why.

McCann is in his 9th year with the Braves. He was an All-Star 6 times and won the Silver Slugger 5 times. All-Star Game MVP in 2010. He won the Braves Heart & Hustle award in 2009 and 2011. Here's where he ranks in Braves franchise history.

Games Played - 24th (1047) - Has a chance to get to 22nd.
Hits - 25th (1017) - Has a chance to get to 22nd.
Doubles - 13th (219) - Has a chance to get to 12th.
Homeruns - 11th (166 - Has a chance to get to 10th.
RBI's - 14th (631) - Has a chance to get to 13th.
OPS - 10th (.827)

With no disrespect to Javy Lopez and Del Crandall, but Brian McCann is the greatest catcher in Braves franchise history. It's because of all these things that I see his number being retired even if this ends up being his last year with the Braves.

Now my case for Tim Hudson. Huddy is also in his 9th year with the Braves, more than his years in Oakland. Here's Huddy's ranks in Braves franchise history.

Games Started - 12th (239) - He'll be 11th in a couple of weeks.
Wins - 15th (109)
ERA - 25th (3.57)
Innings - 22nd (1544) - He could be 18th by the end of the season.
WHIP - 16th (1.24)
BAA - 14th (.252)

Hudson is arguably the 5th best "Atlanta" Braves starting pitcher ever behind (in no particular order) Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz and Niekro.

I mentioned Javy Lopez earlier. I view him like Andruw Jones. I think they will both eventually get their numbers retired but it will be many, many years after their playing careers have been over. If this is indeed McCann's last year with the Braves then Javy will end up with better numbers than McCann did in all those stats but Javy doesn't have all those honors and awards that B-Mac does and I believe this is the difference between the two.

And I don't even remember what number Leo was. 57 I think.

CyYoung31
07-05-2013, 03:53 AM
No way the Braves retire Lopez' number. He'll be in the Braves' HoF for sure though.

zitothebrave
07-05-2013, 08:43 AM
Ron Reed? Shows the folly of using fWAR for pitchers, if you ask me.
Shows the weakness of Atlanta Braves pitching outside of the big 4.

Only person you would argue over Reed if you don't believe in fWAR is Huddy, no one else is even close. So if you want to give an edge to Huddy over Reed, that's fine.

zitothebrave
07-05-2013, 08:45 AM
As far as Druw and getting his number retired, I think that won't happen, you don't want the Braves to become the Yankees and have all the numbers retired.

Metaphysicist
07-05-2013, 09:32 AM
Shows the weakness of Atlanta Braves pitching outside of the big 4.

Only person you would argue over Reed if you don't believe in fWAR is Huddy, no one else is even close. So if you want to give an edge to Huddy over Reed, that's fine.

Mmm.... disagree. fWAR has him ridiculously too high. Reed on has 11 rWAR; that's about the same as Jair or Bedrock. Plenty of Atlanta folk can beat that: Avery, Camp, Mahler, Millwood, Jarvis, Carl Morton. Putting Reed (career ATL ERA+ of 99) in the same company as Hudson is laughable.

You should never use fWAR for pitching, except in the case of next year projections; but in that case, you should just look at straight FIP instead.

zitothebrave
07-05-2013, 09:36 AM
Mmm.... disagree. fWAR has him ridiculously too high. Reed on has 11 rWAR; that's about the same as Jair or Bedrock. Plenty of Atlanta folk can beat that: Avery, Camp, Mahler, Millwood, Jarvis, Carl Morton. Putting Reed (career ATL ERA+ of 99) in the same company as Hudson is laughable.

You should never use fWAR for pitching, except in the case of next year projections; but in that case, you should just look at straight FIP instead.

rWAR is actually 14.2

And if you're arguing a handful of pitchers, you're arguing semantics largely.

Metaphysicist
07-05-2013, 10:18 AM
rWAR is actually 14.2

And if you're arguing a handful of pitchers, you're arguing semantics largely.

Go read bb-ref again. You are wrong. It is 11.2.

Your second sentence makes it seem like you didn't even read what you wrote before:

Only person you would argue over Reed if you don't believe in fWAR is Huddy, no one else is even close.

I listed a fair number of folks with higher rWAR, which directs rebuts your claim that you can't "argue anyone over Reed." To claim that such a response is "semantics" is to not know what words mean.

zitothebrave
07-05-2013, 10:27 AM
Go read bb-ref again. You are wrong. It is 11.2.

Your second sentence makes it seem like you didn't even read what you wrote before:

Only person you would argue over Reed if you don't believe in fWAR is Huddy, no one else is even close.

I listed a fair number of folks with higher rWAR, which directs rebuts your claim that you can't "argue anyone over Reed." To claim that such a response is "semantics" is to not know what words mean.

Sorry looked at the wrong numbers. Anyway, rWAR has it's own flaws as well. You listed some guiys who may be better, or may not depending on many other things. And yes I did make that statement that may not be correct. I forget that I'm dealing with the literal police.

Metaphysicist
07-05-2013, 10:28 AM
The literal police are driving around in cop cars, not correcting the internet.

Explain to me the flaws in rWAR. The guys I listed are arguable, yes. Hudson is not. Claiming that Reed is anywhere near Hudson is crazy.

thethe
07-05-2013, 10:38 AM
The literal police are driving around in cop cars, not correcting the internet.

Explain to me the flaws in rWAR. The guys I listed are arguable, yes. Hudson is not. Claiming that Reed is anywhere near Hudson is crazy.

I know you don't care for me all that much but I love reading your posts. Well done.

Metaphysicist
07-05-2013, 10:49 AM
BUCK UP KIDDO, WE ALL LOVE YOU THETHE

zitothebrave
07-05-2013, 11:05 AM
The literal police are driving around in cop cars, not correcting the internet.

Explain to me the flaws in rWAR. The guys I listed are arguable, yes. Hudson is not. Claiming that Reed is anywhere near Hudson is crazy.

I hate you sometimes

As far as flaws. First off how it attempts to adjust for team defense. FIP does it much cleaner. Second has to do that it's run based. Run based can be extremely lucky. For example I think pretty much anyone would tell you that Jeff Locke isn't on par with Shelby Miller but rWAR says they are. While it's true that in general luck shakes itself out over a large sample, it's not always the case.

Metaphysicist
07-05-2013, 11:35 AM
As far as flaws. First off how it attempts to adjust for team defense. FIP does it much cleaner.

FIP doesn't consider team defense at all. It is by definition "Fielding Independent."

What about the way rWAR adjusts for defense is flawed?


Second has to do that it's run based. Run based can be extremely lucky.

That's a great reason to not use rWAR as a predictive stat. But that's doesn't affect it's value as record of actual performance, which is what WAR is supposed to do.

Also, "lucky" is a misleading description. It assumes to much. What a big FIP delta means is not that a pitcher is lucky, but that his performance is likely unsustainable. Unsustainable and lucky are not the same thing.


For example I think pretty much anyone would tell you that Jeff Locke isn't on par with Shelby Miller but rWAR says they are. While it's true that in general luck shakes itself out over a large sample, it's not always the case.

I wouldn't say they'll be the same going forward (the league will adjust to Locke), but I'd absolutely say that Jeff Locke has been as valuable for his team this year as Miller.

zitothebrave
07-05-2013, 11:43 AM
FIP doesn't consider team defense at all. It is by definition "Fielding Independent."

What about the way rWAR adjusts for defense is flawed?

Because Total Zone is hardly the most accurate way for measuring defense. Sure it's the best we have for that period, but there's a reason no one uses it since UZR and DRS came around. So yeah that's a problem with it. And the being Fielding Independent was clearly what I was talking about. Stop being obtuse



That's a great reason to not use rWAR as a predictive stat. But that's doesn't affect it's value as record of actual performance, which is what WAR is supposed to do.

Also, "lucky" is a misleading description. It assumes to much. What a big FIP delta means is not that a pitcher is lucky, but that his performance is likely unsustainable. Unsustainable and lucky are not the same thing.

It's not just about predictive values, and so on so forth.


I wouldn't say they'll be the same going forward (the league will adjust to Locke), but I'd absolutely say that Jeff Locke has been as valuable for his team this year as Miller.

Why? I get what you're saying but it isn't true.

Julio3000
07-05-2013, 01:42 PM
I wouldn't say they'll be the same going forward (the league will adjust to Locke), but I'd absolutely say that Jeff Locke has been as valuable for his team this year as Miller.

Locke may earn himself a social contract extension, but the Miller's Tale is far from over.

/erudite Chip Caray

CyYoung31
07-05-2013, 06:30 PM
Locke may earn himself a social contract extension, but the Miller's Tale is far from over.

/erudite Chip Caray

Respect.

CyYoung31
07-05-2013, 06:32 PM
As far as Druw and getting his number retired, I think that won't happen, you don't want the Braves to become the Yankees and have all the numbers retired.

That's silly. One more number isn't going to suddenly make us like the Yankees. Andruw was a huge part of our great run, along with being a should-be Hall of Famer. He deserves to have his number retired.

AUTiger7222
07-05-2013, 06:59 PM
That's silly. One more number isn't going to suddenly make us like the Yankees. Andruw was a huge part of our great run, along with being a should-be Hall of Famer. He deserves to have his number retired.

Yeah. The Braves have 10 retired numbers. The Yankees have like 30. Huge difference.

Metaphysicist
07-05-2013, 08:09 PM
Locke may earn himself a social contract extension, but the Miller's Tale is far from over.

/erudite Chip Caray

*slow clap*