Chris Johnson - NL Batting Leader [Archive]

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 08:20 AM

Chris just took over the NL lead in batting average (.332). We're 2/3 of the way through the season, and he's been remarkably consistent. I know, unsustainable BaBIP, but I'm not buying. I'm not sure he's a .330 hitter over the long haul, but I am very certain the dude can hit.

Can Chris Johnson win the NL batting title?

The thing with Johnson is he may very well finish this year with the batting title, guys over perform for full seasons all the time, IF he does that though, we should trade him in the offseason, no doubt in my mind. For a batter with career of high BABIP he'll hit for a respectable average, but probably closer to .300 than .330. I will always give credit where credit is due, Johnson should have the highest average of his career this year, this is most likely his career year, his Ks are down and LD% is up. I think playing way down in the lineup on this team helps, but even staying on this team there's a very big risk of regression to the mean even during this season.

That said hope he keeps it up, he's been an important piece in our winning this year (really everyone but Bossman has been)

AerchAngel

07-28-2013, 08:29 AM

The thing with Johnson is he may very well finish this year with the batting title, guys over perform for full seasons all the time, IF he does that though, we should trade him in the offseason, no doubt in my mind. For a batter with career of high BABIP he'll hit for a respectable average, but probably closer to .300 than .330. I will always give credit where credit is due, Johnson should have the highest average of his career this year, this is most likely his career year, his Ks are down and LD% is up. I think playing way down in the lineup on this team helps, but even staying on this team there's a very big risk of regression to the mean even during this season.

That said hope he keeps it up, he's been an important piece in our winning this year (really everyone but Bossman has been)

Who will play 3B if we trade him?

thethe

07-28-2013, 08:33 AM

Isn't is possible that Chris Johnson is entering his prime and is getting better?

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 08:34 AM

It's getting late enough in the year where I'm starting to think he actually could. He really was a great pick up. We have him under control for 3 more years, and he if keeps this up it could be huge.

He's also looked decent at third, and that was the knock on him. He's not going to win any gold gloves but he's no the butcher I had heard he was.

I agree on the defense. He's OK over there. I understand he hasn't played third all that long. Wade Boggs was crappy when he came up and worked at it until he was pretty good.

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 08:35 AM

A FA, a trade, La Stella, Salcedo, Gattis, who knows, I know there's no way we can justify paying him say 6-8M (he's arb 2) with a batting title to his name possibly more when we have Hudson and Mac hitting FA. Sorry but keeping one of those 2 is way more of a priority than keeping Johnson around. Who at his best probably still isn't a 3 WAR player

thethe

07-28-2013, 08:35 AM

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 08:36 AM

Isn't is possible that Chris Johnson is entering his prime and is getting better?

Players don't enter their prime at 28, that's when their physical skills begin diminishing. You dont' enter your prime when your body reacts slower, you can't add muscle as easy and your hand/eye starts slipping. Just doesn't happen. Would be nice to dream about but it's not a multi-million dollar gamble I would want to be part of.

thethe

07-28-2013, 08:38 AM

Players don't enter their prime at 28, that's when their physical skills begin diminishing. You dont' enter your prime when your body reacts slower, you can't add muscle as easy and your hand/eye starts slipping. Just doesn't happen. Would be nice to dream about but it's not a multi-million dollar gamble I would want to be part of.

Ages 27-30 is when the mental meets the physical. That is pretty much accepted as a baseball players prime years.

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 08:40 AM

Yeah, Chris hasn't been the awful disaster that he is made out to be by some on this board. I think most of his blunders came early in the year when he wasn't playing everyday. I don't even remember him doing anything bad the last month defensively.

Given that defensive metrics in small samples are relatively useless (aka even if Johnson was a positive this year doesn't mean he's a good defender, just could be an aberration of a season)

His UZR by month

April - -1.5
May - -1.0
June - -1.6
July - -1.6

Remember with defense it's not always the plays you screw up, it's usually the plays you don't make.

Johnson is on pace to be just as bad as ever at 3B. career -16.1 UZR/150 this year he's pacing a -13.6

Bj1133

07-28-2013, 08:44 AM

Ages 27-30 is when the mental meets the physical. That is pretty much accepted as a baseball players prime years.

That is what I've always heard

thethe

07-28-2013, 08:45 AM

That is what I've always heard

Zito likes to live on a place I like to call not earth.

thethe

07-28-2013, 08:46 AM

Given that defensive metrics in small samples are relatively useless (aka even if Johnson was a positive this year doesn't mean he's a good defender, just could be an aberration of a season)

His UZR by month

April - -1.5
May - -1.0
June - -1.6
July - -1.6

Remember with defense it's not always the plays you screw up, it's usually the plays you don't make.

Johnson is on pace to be just as bad as ever at 3B. career -16.1 UZR/150 this year he's pacing a -13.6

And defensive metrics still aren't great so its not something you can just point to and say yeah you're right. Its part of the equation. Chris has not been awful like you make him out to be defensively.

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 08:49 AM

Ages 27-30 is when the mental meets the physical. That is pretty much accepted as a baseball players prime years.

Myth. The accepted baseball prime has to do with opinion rather than fact.

It's pretty much accepted that way because that's what stands out to people.

Evan Longoria is 27 now, he's having no betteer year at 27 than he did as a 22-24 year old.

Only truth is that different players have different peaks. So maybe JOhnson is one of those rare freaks who peaks very late. But I wouldn't be willing to bet 5+ million on it. I'm fairly sure he returns to the player he was before this year, good hitter terrible defender instead of very good hitter terrible defender.

AerchAngel

07-28-2013, 08:49 AM

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 08:50 AM

Given that defensive metrics in small samples are relatively useless (aka even if Johnson was a positive this year doesn't mean he's a good defender, just could be an aberration of a season)

His UZR by month

April - -1.5
May - -1.0
June - -1.6
July - -1.6

Remember with defense it's not always the plays you screw up, it's usually the plays you don't make.

Johnson is on pace to be just as bad as ever at 3B. career -16.1 UZR/150 this year he's pacing a -13.6

I see those numbers and all; I just don't believe it. I've been watching the guy all year and he does not give back half the value he has with his defense. If that's what the metric says, then it's a poor metric. Chris Johnson is a real good ballplayer and a hell of a hitter.

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 08:51 AM

And defensive metrics still aren't great so its not something you can just point to and say yeah you're right. Its part of the equation. Chris has not been awful like you make him out to be defensively.

Still aren't great but they're light years better than uneducated guesses of fans. For starters fans typically only watch their own team. It may not dawn on them the epic gulf between Longoria/Beltre, and Johnson. Second fans don't have the ability to judge what the league average player would make. Every defensive metric agrees, Chris Johnson is bad with the glove, pretty sure that means he's bad with the glove. I'd take them 10 times out of 10 over the opinion offered by fans of the game.

thethe

07-28-2013, 08:52 AM

Myth. The accepted baseball prime has to do with opinion rather than fact.

It's pretty much accepted that way because that's what stands out to people.

Evan Longoria is 27 now, he's having no betteer year at 27 than he did as a 22-24 year old.

Only truth is that different players have different peaks. So maybe JOhnson is one of those rare freaks who peaks very late. But I wouldn't be willing to bet 5+ million on it. I'm fairly sure he returns to the player he was before this year, good hitter terrible defender instead of very good hitter terrible defender.

Evan Longoria isn't any better because Evan Longoria was a tremendously gifted player. Thats such a silly argument. Of course the starts are going to be just as good right away. There have been plenty of players that have gotten better with experience.

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 08:53 AM

Oh, I didn't know that, I thought he was cheap.

He made 2.8 million this year and is having his best season, he may not get much over 5 if he doesn't win the title, but he's gonna get paid and I'd much rather invest that money elsewhere than on a 2 WAR player.

thethe

07-28-2013, 08:53 AM

Still aren't great but they're light years better than uneducated guesses of fans. For starters fans typically only watch their own team. It may not dawn on them the epic gulf between Longoria/Beltre, and Johnson. Second fans don't have the ability to judge what the league average player would make. Every defensive metric agrees, Chris Johnson is bad with the glove, pretty sure that means he's bad with the glove. I'd take them 10 times out of 10 over the opinion offered by fans of the game.

I watch Chris Johnson everyday and he doesn't make mistakes that cost the team runs as often as you make it out to be. Nobody is saying he is average or even good. We are just refuting that he is an awful disgrace to baseball like you make him out to be.

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 08:58 AM

Evan Longoria isn't any better because Evan Longoria was a tremendously gifted player. Thats such a silly argument. Of course the starts are going to be just as good right away. There have been plenty of players that have gotten better with experience.

I'd like that list

The other thing you fail to mention with your "accepted peak" is that the accepted path after the peak is very far down. More than a few hitters hit 30 and drop off the face of the earth.

Some more, David Wright's best season was at 24, Pujols at 23, I could go on but the truth is that players are generally just more consistent in those seasons than they were younger, not always better. So you're less likely to have say an 8 WAR season followed by a 5 WAR season. You're more likely to have 3 7 WAR seasons.

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 08:58 AM

He made 2.8 million this year and is having his best season, he may not get much over 5 if he doesn't win the title, but he's gonna get paid and I'd much rather invest that money elsewhere than on a 2 WAR player.

Half the WAR calc is built with a shaky defensive metric that I don't believe in. It's not all WAR, as much as you would like it to be. Wren agrees with me, BTW. Q

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 08:59 AM

I watch Chris Johnson everyday and he doesn't make mistakes that cost the team runs as often as you make it out to be. Nobody is saying he is average or even good. We are just refuting that he is an awful disgrace to baseball like you make him out to be.

Again, it's not always the mistakes you make as much as the plays you don't. Scary thing is that Johnson has the best defensive SS in baseball next to him making things easier for him and he's still struggling to make plays.

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 09:02 AM

Half the WAR calc is built with a shaky defensive metric that I don't believe in. It's not all WAR, as much as you would like it to be. Wren agrees with me, BTW. Q

You can choose not to believe in it, that's fine, Johnson on his career is a good hitter terrible defender. There's value to that but it's not 5 million to this team. We need that money for Hudson and Mac.

Let's talk about players on our team who would potentially make close to the same or more money than Johnson.

Hudson, McCann, Medlen, Heyward, Kimbrel, Freeman, and maybe Beachy. Is there one of those players you're willing to say I want Chris Johnson more than you? Cause I want all of them WAY more than I'd want Chris JOhnson. Way more.

thethe

07-28-2013, 09:04 AM

I'd like that list

The other thing you fail to mention with your "accepted peak" is that the accepted path after the peak is very far down. More than a few hitters hit 30 and drop off the face of the earth.

Some more, David Wright's best season was at 24, Pujols at 23, I could go on but the truth is that players are generally just more consistent in those seasons than they were younger, not always better. So you're less likely to have say an 8 WAR season followed by a 5 WAR season. You're more likely to have 3 7 WAR seasons.

And then you have players like Chris Davis/David Ortiz/Miguel Cabrera who clearly peaked at those ages.

thethe

07-28-2013, 09:05 AM

Again, it's not always the mistakes you make as much as the plays you don't. Scary thing is that Johnson has the best defensive SS in baseball next to him making things easier for him and he's still struggling to make plays.

I dont know what you're watching but when I watch Chris Johnson makes plays. But, you can continue to dive into the numbers and not watch the games.

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 09:12 AM

And then you have players like Chris Davis/David Ortiz/Miguel Cabrera who clearly peaked at those ages.

David Ortiz juiced and had Manny (on roids) hitting behind him. Miggy was insane his whole career.

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 09:13 AM

I dont know what you're watching but when I watch Chris Johnson makes plays. But, you can continue to dive into the numbers and not watch the games.

Yay thethe's expert opinion FTW!!!

Braves1976

07-28-2013, 09:13 AM

Chris Johnson is having a career year thus far with the bat, but he's still a bad defender. However, the same is true of Uggla and Justin Upton has the second worst DRS (-8 last I checked) on the team. So it's not like he doesn't have company in that regard. Further, Simmons and Freeman are the reason the Braves have been able to be successful with both Uggla and CJ being bad defensively. It is truly impressive just how great Simmons is defensively, how many plays he makes to cover those not made by them. As Zito noted, it's not simply errors but the plays CJ doesn't make due to lack of range, etc.

That said, I didn't think CJ would be able to make up for his bad defense with his bat. But so far he's did so and I hope that continues.

jsebe10

07-28-2013, 09:16 AM

Lol stupid stat heads...

Why is it every time one of our has a decent season, some of you want to trade them away?

thethe

07-28-2013, 09:18 AM

David Ortiz juiced and had Manny (on roids) hitting behind him. Miggy was insane his whole career.

Miggy is having his best years the last three years. Coincidentally his prime years.

thethe

07-28-2013, 09:18 AM

Yay thethe's expert opinion FTW!!!

You continually state that he isn't making plays. Please cite your examples outside of a formula that is not even close to being accurate at this point in time.

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 09:20 AM

He has been exceptional the last 3 years. Miggy is awesome and always has been.

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 09:21 AM

You continually state that he isn't making plays. Please cite your examples outside of a formula that is not even close to being accurate at this point in time.

Why would I site my sources when they're clearly out there?

thethe

07-28-2013, 09:23 AM

He has been exceptional the last 3 years. Miggy is awesome and always has been.

Has he not been better in his age 27-30 years?

thethe

07-28-2013, 09:23 AM

Why would I site my sources when they're clearly out there?

Outside of your stats which are not close to being at a level accurate enough to be conclusive.

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 09:26 AM

Has he not been better in his age 27-30 years?

He has but one can argue that it has a lot to do with the talent aroudn him compared to Florida.

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 09:27 AM

Outside of your stats which are not close to being at a level accurate enough to be conclusive.

Let's say stats are 80% accurate. Leaves plenty for room for error. That's still way more accurate than your opinion.

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 09:27 AM

Why would I site my sources when they're clearly out there?

That's evasive. You think you have a superior argument because you cite a made-up metric that even its creators agree is flawed. IIRC, they say Freddie sucks, too. And Freddie's real good, if a bit short on range.

57Brave

07-28-2013, 09:28 AM

thethe

07-28-2013, 09:28 AM

He has but one can argue that it has a lot to do with the talent aroudn him compared to Florida.

Wait, so does lineup protection matter?

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 09:29 AM

Let's say stats are 80% accurate. Leaves plenty for room for error. That's still way more accurate than your opinion.

Nope.

And they're not 80% correct. That's the problem.

thethe

07-28-2013, 09:29 AM

Saw Johnson make two plays yesterday he wouldn't have made in May.

Anyone else notice Janish did not come in as a defensive replacement in the 9th with a two run lead and the top of the Cardinals order?
thought that spoke volumes

Because Johnson is finally getting to play everyday for us and has been markedly better since he got that opportunity.

Braves1976

07-28-2013, 09:30 AM

You continually state that he isn't making plays. Please cite your examples outside of a formula that is not even close to being accurate at this point in time.

How many times does he need to point out that any defensive metric you use says CJ is bad defensively? If they didn't all agree you might have something of a case, but they do so case closed. They're not all wrong. Bottom line: Since 2010, CJ is the worst defensive player (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2012&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0) at the hot corner.

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 09:33 AM

Lol stupid stat heads...

Why is it every time one of our has a decent season, some of you want to trade them away?

Beautiful.

They do, don't they? "X cannot sustain that level of productivity. He will regress to the mean. Therefore, we should trade him and acquire Y, who has hidden productivity which will manifest itself once we acquire him."

thethe

07-28-2013, 09:33 AM

How many times does he need to point out that any defensive metric you use says CJ is bad defensively? If they didn't all agree you might have something of a case, but they do so case closed. They're not all wrong. Bottom line: Since 2010, CJ is the worst defensive player (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2012&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0) at the hot corner.

I guess you didn't notice that I said outside of a formula that isn't close to being accurate. You can't accurately evaluate defensive performance using numbers. Do you realize how much subjective bias is placed into these?

Julio3000

07-28-2013, 09:36 AM

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 09:37 AM

How many times does he need to point out that any defensive metric you use says CJ is bad defensively? If they didn't all agree you might have something of a case, but they do so case closed. They're not all wrong. Bottom line: Since 2010, CJ is the worst defensive player (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2012&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0) at the hot corner.

I agree that he's not Brooks. I think all the formulas overstate the value or cost of the defensive component, at a least partly because those metrics are volatile and subjective. He's been fine over there, but my point is that even if he had not, he wouldn't give back half his hitting value with his glove, which is where Zito is going.

thethe

07-28-2013, 09:40 AM

I agree that he's not Brooks. I think all the formulas overstate the value or cost of the defensive component, at a least partly because those metrics are volatile and subjective. He's been fine over there, but my point is that even if he had not, he wouldn't give back half his hitting value with his glove, which is where Zito is going.

Thats all anyone is saying. Not one person has even said that Johnson is an average defensive third baseman. However, some on here want everyone to believe he is the worst of all time and I just don't think thats the case.

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 09:43 AM

My eyeball impression was that he really did get a lot of lucky hits early on, but that he's been consistently hitting ropes more recently. His LD/FB% monthly splits seem to bear this out. I have a hard time getting a handle on him as a hitter.

Me, too. I like selective guys, and he doesn't walk much. But he doesn't seem to take a lot of bad swings. Kind of like he's extremely aggressive and successful within the zone.

I know it looks like he has an excellent swing plane so that he's got a much longer/larger possibility of making solid contact. Kind of tHe opposite of BJ, who needs to time it up perfectly or he fouls it back (and then waves at the next slider away).

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 09:44 AM

That's evasive. You think you have a superior argument because you cite a made-up metric that even its creators agree is flawed. IIRC, they say Freddie sucks, too. And Freddie's real good, if a bit short on range.

The only thing they measure for 1B is range. So of course they'll be negative on Freeman. Freeman's biggest attribute is his fielding of throws which isn't measurable.

UZR and DRS if they agree on a player it's usually true, for example, both agree that Jason Heyward is one of the best defensive OF in baseball, both agree Simmons is the best defensive SS in baseball, both agree Longoria is a stud, I could continue but you get my drift. Pretty much anyone with half a brain would agree with all those statements by watchign the games. They also both agree Chris Johnson is a bad defensive 3B.

UZR has this nifty built in feature that tracks what boosts and busts a player's value. Johnson isn't that terrible on errors. His costing on errors is better than guys like Alvarez or Moosetacos, but those guys have superior range.

These are plays that guys close to average make

http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=29070821

http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=28772715

http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=29174609

I can't see Johnson making a single one of those plays. Maybe the Polanco one since he didn't have to move before diving.

Much less plays liek the top guys make

http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=29201607

Johnson's "highlight" play was not booting a routine chopper in the 9th to throw out gimpy Beltran.

Braves1976

07-28-2013, 09:45 AM

I agree that he's not Brooks. I think all the formulas overstate the value or cost of the defensive component, at a least partly because those metrics are volatile and subjective. He's been fine over there, but my point is that even if he had not, he wouldn't give back half his hitting value with his glove, which is where Zito is going.

The way y'all talk is as if defensive metrics are almost useless. Obviously, I don't agree with your assertions there. But I will give CJ credit for his career year with the bat. As I said, CJ has made up for what he lacks in defense with his bat thus far. But if we didn't have Simmons at short we couldn't play bad defenders and second and third and be where we are. Simmons is having a record breaking year defensively.

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 09:45 AM

Wait, so does lineup protection matter?

It's usually easier to hit with men on, opens up more gaps in the "power alleys"

thethe

07-28-2013, 09:48 AM

It's usually easier to hit with men on, opens up more gaps in the "power alleys"

So thats a yes then? Lineup protection does matter?

Braves1976

07-28-2013, 09:49 AM

The only thing they measure for 1B is range. So of course they'll be negative on Freeman. Freeman's biggest attribute is his fielding of throws which isn't measurable.

Good point.

thethe

07-28-2013, 09:49 AM

The way y'all talk is as if defensive metrics are almost useless. Obviously, I don't agree with your assertions there. But I will give CJ credit for his career year with the bat. As I said, CJ has made up for what he lacks in defense with his bat thus far. But if we didn't have Simmons at short we couldn't play bad defenders and second and third and be where we are. Simmons is having a record breaking year defensively.

I've never said they were useless. I'm saying its part of the total picture. Again, nobody is saying Johnson is average. I just don't believe he is as bad as the defensive metrics make him out to be.

Julio3000

07-28-2013, 09:49 AM

Yeah, he doesn't seem to just own Abs but he has been consistently squaring the ball up. He doesn't look like a candidate for a trip to the optometrist, anyway.

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 09:51 AM

The only thing they measure for 1B is range. So of course they'll be negative on Freeman. Freeman's biggest attribute is his fielding of throws which isn't measurable.

Stop. You lost me right there. Nothing else you said matters. That's ridiculous. That's 2/3 of a 1B's value.

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 09:53 AM

Stop. You lost me right there. Nothing else you said matters. That's ridiculous. That's 2/3 of a 1B's value.

And why the hell isn't picking throws measureable? It's as measureable as all the other crap you're saying they can measure accurately.

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 09:55 AM

Yeah, he doesn't seem to just own Abs but he has been consistently squaring the ball up. He doesn't look like a candidate for a trip to the optometrist, anyway.

LOL...indeed.

Hey, when did Melvin last have his eyes checked? Not that it matters, with that train wreck swing.

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 09:56 AM

I've never said they were useless. I'm saying its part of the total picture. Again, nobody is saying Johnson is average. I just don't believe he is as bad as the defensive metrics make him out to be.

Concur.

Braves1976

07-28-2013, 09:56 AM

Stop. You lost me right there. Nothing else you said matters. That's ridiculous. That's 2/3 of a 1B's value.

If you check Freeman on DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) you'll see he's rated well (and isn't negative for his career either). So it's not as if all defensive metrics don't give him credit for being a solid first baseman.

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 09:56 AM

Good point.

That is not a good point. That's a terrible point.

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 09:59 AM

Stop. You lost me right there. Nothing else you said matters. That's ridiculous. That's 2/3 of a 1B's value.

Have I or nearly any other stathead said that Freeman sucks with the glove? I've said Freeman has bad range, but is amazing picking.

As far as why it isn't measurable, it has to do with trackable data. I'm sure down the road it will be they'll be able to measure the velocity of a throw, what kind of movement it has and where it was in relation to the runner arriving at the bag in terms of difficulty or the field. Until that day though they have to be separate. 3 positions on the diamond don't have amazing fielding stats yet, pitcher (sample), 1B (only part of the game measured) and C (still has many factors that need to be ironed out) The other positiosn though are pretty damned accurate.

Braves1976

07-28-2013, 10:00 AM

That is not a good point. That's a terrible point.

The reason it was a good point was because he noted the flaw in it. The flaw in using that defensive metric alone for measuring first basemen. And I was basically agreeing with him in that regard.

thethe

07-28-2013, 10:02 AM

Have I or nearly any other stathead said that Freeman sucks with the glove? I've said Freeman has bad range, but is amazing picking.

As far as why it isn't measurable, it has to do with trackable data. I'm sure down the road it will be they'll be able to measure the velocity of a throw, what kind of movement it has and where it was in relation to the runner arriving at the bag in terms of difficulty or the field. Until that day though they have to be separate. 3 positions on the diamond don't have amazing fielding stats yet, pitcher (sample), 1B (only part of the game measured) and C (still has many factors that need to be ironed out) The other positiosn though are pretty damned accurate.

Velocity/spin/trajectory are important variables that can't be measured. Therefore it is impossible to come up with a statistical measure as to how two players compare. Then their are other factors such as how the sun is shining, cloud cover, the way the grass is cut, etc...

There are too many variables to come up with reliable measures of fielding performance.

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 10:05 AM

Velocity/spin/trajectory are important variables that can't be measured. Therefore it is impossible to come up with a statistical measure as to how two players compare. Then their are other factors such as how the sun is shining, cloud cover, the way the grass is cut, etc...

There are too many variables to come up with reliable measures of fielding performance.

Well done.

Of course, there's the eyeball test, but that's a lot of work, watching games.

Also subjective, I admit.

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 10:05 AM

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 10:06 AM

Well done.

Of course, there's the eyeball test, but that's a lot of work, watching games.

Also subjective, I admit.

You are highly predictable.

The eyeball test is thet most inaccurate way to judge a player. OK second most, behind fielding%

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 10:07 AM

You are highly predictable.

The eyeball test is thet most inaccurate way to judge a player. OK second most, behind fielding%

LOL.

Perhaps we should agree to disagree. Although I do agree that fielding percentage sucks.

Also, I like arguing with you because that's more times to see your avatar.

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 10:11 AM

If you check Freeman on DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) you'll see he's rated well (and isn't negative for his career either). So it's not as if all defensive metrics don't give him credit for being a solid first baseman.

Hmm. I'll look at it some more.

thethe

07-28-2013, 10:11 AM

No you're arguing against the potential issue with putting run values on certain plays. In general in baseball's large sample those small things like sun, cloud cover, individual playing surfaces level out for the most part.

The input data is that, Johnson doesn't make as many plays as the average 3B. You can argue how many runs that costs cause that's up for debate but you cannot argue that he's not well below average.

Also in today's world, velocity and trajectory off the bat are pretty danged accurate.

I don't believe those things average out during the year but lets put that aside.

Please link to how velocity/spin/trajectory of batted balls are incorporated into defensive metrics. I haven't found anywhere which shows those factors are used.

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 10:16 AM

thethe

07-28-2013, 10:18 AM

they're not perfectly accurate measures (can't tell you the MPH and angle) but they can measure if a ball is hard hit soft hit, a chopper, grounder, liner, etc.

Now when Field F/x becomes available, all these debates will be settled since it's pretty much perfect in it's tracking of data but who knows when that will be available.

Fine, when that comes out I will read up on it and then may change my opinion but for now defensive metrics are not as accurate as you make them out to be.

Heyward

07-28-2013, 11:34 AM

Isn't is possible that Chris Johnson is entering his prime and is getting better?

Logic!

Heyward

07-28-2013, 11:35 AM

Players don't enter their prime at 28, that's when their physical skills begin diminishing. You dont' enter your prime when your body reacts slower, you can't add muscle as easy and your hand/eye starts slipping. Just doesn't happen. Would be nice to dream about but it's not a multi-million dollar gamble I would want to be part of.

Not really, prime years in baseball is around 27-34 or so.

Yadi Molina is a good example even though he's a dick.

Heyward

07-28-2013, 11:37 AM

Johnson is pretty decent defensively, not awful but not great.

Maybe he's finally coming to his own.

sturg33

07-28-2013, 11:42 AM

Thats all anyone is saying. Not one person has even said that Johnson is an average defensive third baseman. However, some on here want everyone to believe he is the worst of all time and I just don't think thats the case.

Who do you think are worst defensive third basemen's in MLB today? And why?

sturg33

07-28-2013, 11:44 AM

Have I or nearly any other stathead said that Freeman sucks with the glove? I've said Freeman has bad range, but is amazing picking.

Everyone always says Freeman is amazing at picking, and I agree. But is he that much better than just about everyone else in MLB? I very rarely see first basement NOT pick balls in the dirt, and going back in Braves time, Laroche, Tex, Kotchman, etc were all considered "amazing" pickers. It seems that most MLB first basemen can pick balls in the dirt, as they should.

thethe

07-28-2013, 11:51 AM

Who do you think are worst defensive third basemen's in MLB today? And why?

I have no clue because I don't watch these players and I don't buy into the defensive metrics 100%. I ust don't believe that Chris Johnson is an all time bad defensive player.

sturg33

07-28-2013, 11:53 AM

I have no clue because I don't watch these players and I don't buy into the defensive metrics 100%. I ust don't believe that Chris Johnson is an all time bad defensive player.

OK, so when we say Chris Johnson is arguable the worst defender in MLB, and you say we are wrong... You're just assuming, then?

thethe

07-28-2013, 11:59 AM

OK, so when we say Chris Johnson is arguable the worst defender in MLB, and you say we are wrong... You're just assuming, then?

I know the point you are getting at but if you want to just blindly believe defensive metrics then thats fine. I just disagree. Chris Johnson has not been a bad defensive third baseman this year and that is all I care about.

FUEagle

07-28-2013, 12:44 PM

Sell high on him this offseason

Coredor

07-28-2013, 01:43 PM

Sell high on him this offseason

That's fine if you have a better backup plan. Getting one is going to cost a ton in either trade value or cash and would potentially weaken us somewhere else. I know some would like to find a true replacement for Chipper, but that's really not possible.

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 02:14 PM

That's fine if you have a better backup plan. Getting one is going to cost a ton in either trade value or cash and would potentially weaken us somewhere else. I know some would like to find a true replacement for Chipper, but that's really not possible.

Right. Even if you paid CJ $5-7m the next two years, it'd be pretty hard to find a better deal than an .850 OPS with adequate defense.

Wren hosed Towers. Not necessarily on Upton, but on Upton/CJ.

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 02:58 PM

Right. Even if you paid CJ $5-7m the next two years, it'd be pretty hard to find a better deal than an .850 OPS with adequate defense.

Wren hosed Towers. Not necessarily on Upton, but on Upton/CJ.

Adequate defense is too kind. Polanco has adequate defense. Johnson is a bad defender. that is like saying Dan Uggla has adequate defense.

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 03:14 PM

Adequate defense is too kind. Polanco has adequate defense. Johnson is a bad defender. that is like saying Dan Uggla has adequate defense.

Yup. I'd say Uggla is adequate defensively. Last year he was quite good. He turns the double play as well as anyone. Looks to me like his range to his right isn't very good. Left is pretty good, arm is good. He doesn't hurt you. I think players should play the toughest position they can play, competently.

When you're saying "this guy will make 94 plays out of 100, and this guy will make 96," I think you're better off not trying to analyze a differential that isn't there, or has very low predictive value.

So, believe it or not, I do not buy into the defensive metrics that say this guy is worth this many runs or games above replacement, and that guy is negative runs against replacement. The next week or month that guy makes a play and this guy doesn't. Can you measure? Yes. But it's crude and even the so-called objective indicators are very subjective.

Last year in the first have, Michael Bourn had a higher WAR than Matt Kemp in the first half, because of DWAR. That's a silly result. Freddie Freeman was negative DWAR. That's silly, too.

The Chosen One

07-28-2013, 09:25 PM

I'm kind of neutral on Johnson now.

At first I wanted to get a real 3B just because he botches a lot of balls at 3rd.

His bat though, it's very consistent and I don't see his AVG or approach dropping off unless the summer fatigue of a 162 game season happens.

Orphan Black

07-28-2013, 10:24 PM

I'm sorry, but I just don't get the complaint about his defense. He's adequate. That's all he needs to be. If he wasn't adequate he wouldn't be playing there.

sturg33

07-28-2013, 10:35 PM

I'm sorry, but I just don't get the complaint about his defense. He's adequate. That's all he needs to be. If he wasn't adequate he wouldn't be playing there.

Adequate by who's standards?

By your standards, or by league average standards? If we judge him against his peers, he is not adequate at all.

Dude can hit though

zitothebrave

07-28-2013, 10:39 PM

I think that adequate by some standards is that he's not the total worst defender ever.

Orphan Black

07-28-2013, 11:03 PM

Adequate by who's standards?

By your standards, or by league average standards? If we judge him against his peers, he is not adequate at all.

Dude can hit though

Adequate is being able to play in MLB at third. He doesn't cost the team a ton of runs there, and sure he's made a couple of bad plays, but for the most part he's been adequate.

I can't say whether he's been average, but he seems average to me from what I've seen.

GovClintonTyree

07-28-2013, 11:42 PM

Adequate is being able to play in MLB at third. He doesn't cost the team a ton of runs there, and sure he's made a couple of bad plays, but for the most part he's been adequate.

I can't say whether he's been average, but he seems average to me from what I've seen.

I agree. And now he's hitting .338. And two of those hits tonight were huge.

Runnin

07-28-2013, 11:46 PM

Adequate defense is too kind. Polanco has adequate defense. Johnson is a bad defender. that is like saying Dan Uggla has adequate defense.
Uggla and Johnson both have adequate defense. Not great, maybe not even good, but adequate. The fact that they are still in the lineup of a 1st place team proves it.

Dalyn

07-28-2013, 11:52 PM

In this respect, I think adequate defense means that he can hit.

Orphan Black

07-28-2013, 11:57 PM

In this case adequate means "enough to meet the needs of a situation"

Carp

07-29-2013, 01:28 AM

Carp

07-29-2013, 01:36 AM

Right. Even if you paid CJ $5-7m the next two years, it'd be pretty hard to find a better deal than an .850 OPS with adequate defense.

Wren hosed Towers. Not necessarily on Upton, but on Upton/CJ.

I think the odds of CJ duplicating this yr are pretty low. I mean let's face it, even some of the best players don't hit .320 or higher on a consistent basis. And with the overall lack of power Johnson has, he will have to maintain a high average in order to be a valuable offensive starter at the hot corner.

I think it is much more likely he is a mid .750 - .800 OPS type of player. Which is nice, but when you factor in his pourus defense, he really isn't worth over 5-7 million. Not to us anyways.

cajunrevenge

07-29-2013, 03:11 AM

stpeteirish

07-29-2013, 06:55 AM

returning to the batting title discussion, watch out for Tulowitski, he doesn't have enough AB's but if he doesn't get hurt again he could get there and he's at .335. Better hitter than CJ. Molina's fighting a bad knee and catching, not a good combo.

Dunit24

07-29-2013, 07:04 AM

I wouldnt say this is a fluke by Johnson. Maybe the .330 average but he hit .280 last year. It looks like hes really trying to cut down on his Ks and on his swing and its really paying off. Do I expect him to hit .330 the rest of the year and his career? No. Its not far off though to expect him to hit .280-.300 every year. He's really been a blessing for us.

Julio3000

07-29-2013, 07:12 AM

It wouldn't be the first unexpectedly high BA year by a Braves 3B. I'm thinking of Pendleton's batting title in 1991.

BTW, you know who led the majors in hitting that year?

Julio Cesar, not the snake.
http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff511/poinsett/Julio-Franco_zpsaae580e1.jpg

ProbationDeac

07-29-2013, 07:51 AM

In this case adequate means "enough to meet the needs of a situation"

This.

His defense is not spectacular nor is it the worst in the league. Enjoy the season he's having and then fight over what to do with him or not in the offseason.

zitothebrave

07-29-2013, 07:57 AM

Johnson is quite terrible defensively. I would sell him this off-season while his stock is high. As far as who to replace him? I think I might go with a cheaper internal option and spend Johnson's money on resigning Mac.

May be package Johnson and Medlen together with another top prospect in order to get a true ace like Sale or Price.

Or just keep that top prospect with the inevitable risk of losing guys like Mac, Freeman, and Heyward. I would swap them for one of the top pitchers os we can keep our cheap rotation in order.

zitothebrave

07-29-2013, 07:59 AM

I dont think many team will take this season seriously in order for us to sell high. Kind of how Jorge Sosa was. We all knew it was a fluke, its hard to get teams to buy on flukes unless they have some kind of history or tools to back up their success. Now if he repeats it next year he would then be taken seriously. Now if he was 38, an all star 5 years ago and was having this season the yankees would be all over him this offseason.

Johnson has a high average and so on so forth in the past. Someone with a need at 3B or 1B and not a big budget would certainly take a long hard look at him. Selling high on him doesn't mean we can deal him for a top 20 prospect, it means we turn a throw in into a viable option.

gilesfan

07-29-2013, 09:25 AM

Stop. You lost me right there. Nothing else you said matters. That's ridiculous. That's 2/3 of a 1B's value.

Zito is correct and I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. Even if what you said is correct, it doesn't contradict anything Zito said.

How are throws measurable? Is there someone saying that throw from Simmons should have been an error? Or Freeman picked that ball when Davis couldn't? How do you propose measuring?

gilesfan

07-29-2013, 09:35 AM

Despite being the NL league leader in batting average, Chris Johnson has a WAR of 1.7, which ranks 12 in the majors. That sounds about right. The problem with guys like him are that they are going to be crazy unpredictable. His skills are bad defense, no on base skills, and adequate power. Thus, if he has a good season, its solely on batting average. When you have a BABIP of .421 (league leader by 30 points), then you can hit a high average and have a decent year. His low walk rate and only .130 Iso power means there are a lot of balls being put into play. IF they fall, he has a good year. If they are hard hit grounders to short, it is a bad thing.

Later this year or next year, when he hits .275, what are you left with?

50PoundHead

07-29-2013, 09:47 AM

Johnson is quite terrible defensively. I would sell him this off-season while his stock is high. As far as who to replace him? I think I might go with a cheaper internal option and spend Johnson's money on resigning Mac.

May be package Johnson and Medlen together with another top prospect in order to get a true ace like Sale or Price.

There is no viable internal option. My guess is Johnson will be moving on, but there's nobody in the system prepared to play 3B in the major leagues on a regular basis.

zitothebrave

07-29-2013, 10:09 AM

LA Stella and Salcedo are cheap internal options.

Braves1976

07-29-2013, 10:38 AM

It's funny how when a bad defensive player hits, fans try to spin what they bring defensively to the table. It just goes to show offense sells better than defense with most fans. If that wasn't the case Simmons would get more credit than he does by Braves fans. I see many Brave fans hacking on him about his offense and almost taking for granted his great defense (at least in some areas). I also saw this with Bourn last year, etc.

BTW, Uggla had a -12 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) last I checked so far this year. If that's adequate defense, I'd sure hate to see what bad equals. Now Uggla was much better last season, at least before the Wild Card game when it counted. But this year he's been one of the worst at his position. Again, Simmons is the main reason the Braves are able to be successful with bad defenders at second and third. Freeman helps a lot too at first, but not as much as Simmons does.

Lastly, CJ is having a great year hitting for average. He's made up for his defensive shortcomings with his bat. That's great and I hope it continues.

Julio3000

07-29-2013, 10:44 AM

I think that CJ's great hitting has made him a positive contributor this season. I didn't necessarily expect that and am glad to be wrong. That said, I'm leery of him long-term because of what giles mentioned above. If he were cheaper going forward, he'd be a great place-holder.

gilesfan

07-29-2013, 10:49 AM

Adequate defense is too kind. Polanco has adequate defense. Johnson is a bad defender. that is like saying Dan Uggla has adequate defense.

Wait, you told me Uggla was a good defender all of a sudden at age 30+

zitothebrave

07-29-2013, 10:54 AM

Wait, you told me Uggla was a good defender all of a sudden at age 30+

I told you he was a good defender last year and we had to see if the trend would continue, and thus far it hasn't. I fully admitted the risk of falling back but said he clearly played better defense last year that it wasn't a glitch in the numbers.

gilesfan

07-29-2013, 11:07 AM

I told you he was a good defender last year and we had to see if the trend would continue, and thus far it hasn't. I fully admitted the risk of falling back but said he clearly played better defense last year that it wasn't a glitch in the numbers.

LOL, you are lying.

zitothebrave

07-29-2013, 11:19 AM

No I'm not

You're not banned right? You can research it.

Enscheff

07-29-2013, 11:20 AM

Not sure how a topic about CJ leading the league in hitting turned into a pissing contest about defensive metrics, but anyone that argues he is much better than a lawn ornament out there needs to watch some other guys besides CJ and Chipper play 3B. True, CJ doesn't boot grounders right at him, but the only thing he fields are grounder right at him.

Regardless, this thread is about his hitting and how likely he is to win the batting title. His huge BABIP value suggests he is due to regress, but that doesn't mean he will. He is just as likely to continue to be lucky enough this year to pull it off.

Next year? I imagine he goes back to being a .280+ hitter, and we will ALL wish Wren would have sold high on him this offseason.

Yogi44

07-29-2013, 11:33 AM

At some point you have to look away from the stats and look at what the player has ACTUALLY done on the field. Forget luck, throw out the numbers (hard for any baseball fan) and just think back during this season that he has been good, and has hurt us very few times. I'll lean more toward the age 27-30 and figuring it all out theory.

Nerfherders

07-29-2013, 12:35 PM

Chris Johnson looked really good last night and made some fine plays in the field. He's not killing us out there and to my eye, making the plays he needs to.

I would like to see him hit second in the order while he's hot. He doesn't walk much but with his bat handling so good right now, he'd be great in the 2-hole.

Braves1976

07-29-2013, 12:42 PM

I would like to see him hit second in the order while he's hot. He doesn't walk much but with his bat handling so good right now, he'd be great in the 2-hole.

He was already recently tried there a few games, we lost both and he hit into a few DP's too. He also has hit into a lot of DP's over his career, though much better in that regard so far this year. So he's not ideal for the two hole, but I am not just basing that on hitting into DP's. It's still enough of a reason however.

Besides, I don't see a reason to move him from where he's hitting well.

gilesfan

07-29-2013, 12:48 PM

Simmons is a great SS. But, he's an 8 hitter. Why would you bat him 2nd?

Braves1976

07-29-2013, 12:57 PM

Simmons is a great SS. But, he's an 8 hitter. Why would you bat him 2nd?

Who brought up Simmons? Are you saying you rather bat Johnson second? Simmons has hit .317 batting second and long term I believe he'll be a better hitter overall too. He reminds me a lot of Prado given his contact skills, etc. I just think all the homers in the WBC messed up his approach. He'll get back on track though. He's already been hitting better of late. Furthermore, I am fine with Simmons hitting where he is now. I am just against Johnson hitting second.

That said, I would keep Justin Upton in the two hole for now. I like Heyward hitting lead-off and have said he should be there for a while now.

ChapelHillMatt

07-29-2013, 01:29 PM

Read the first 2 pages, not reading anymore. I'm getting a headache.

Chris Johnson has had a great year, I for one appreciate what he's done this year and choose to give him credit instead of trying to tear him down.

Some people make their minds up before they ever see a guy play and then are too stubborn to let on the field performance change their minds.

JohnAdcox

07-29-2013, 02:28 PM

ChapelHillMatt

07-29-2013, 07:22 PM

Another big hit

Maybe he's just really, really good?

Impossible I know.

Carp

07-29-2013, 09:07 PM

There is no viable internal option. My guess is Johnson will be moving on, but there's nobody in the system prepared to play 3B in the major leagues on a regular basis.

Salcedo is a decent option. And I would have Gattis play 3b this winter until he proves that he can't. Many catchers have transitioned from C to 3b. Granted it doesn't normally happen at 27 yrs old, but it isn't like Gattis has been playing catcher every day for the last 10 yrs either.

Carp

07-29-2013, 09:13 PM

Another big hit

Maybe he's just really, really good?

Impossible I know.

May be, but doubtful.

Saying he probably isn't as good as he has shown is not tearing him down. You can enjoy watching him play while still being realistic in that he probably won't repeat this season.

Heyward

07-30-2013, 01:33 PM

Johnson is quite terrible defensively. I would sell him this off-season while his stock is high. As far as who to replace him? I think I might go with a cheaper internal option and spend Johnson's money on resigning Mac.

May be package Johnson and Medlen together with another top prospect in order to get a true ace like Sale or Price.

Sale, yes.

Price would cost one of our studs for the big league team.

Heyward

07-30-2013, 01:34 PM

May be, but doubtful.

Saying he probably isn't as good as he has shown is not tearing him down. You can enjoy watching him play while still being realistic in that he probably won't repeat this season.

He probably won't repeat this year but who replaces him and that is better?

ProbationDeac

07-30-2013, 03:20 PM

Another big hit

Maybe he's just really, really good?

Impossible I know.

No that can't be right...he's garbage, haven't you been paying attention?

DirkPiggler

07-30-2013, 08:32 PM

Salcedo is a decent option. And I would have Gattis play 3b this winter until he proves that he can't. Many catchers have transitioned from C to 3b. Granted it doesn't normally happen at 27 yrs old, but it isn't like Gattis has been playing catcher every day for the last 10 yrs either.

If we're going to resign Mac (and I hope we do), why not try him at 3rd in the spring? At least give him a few innings to see if it's feasible. It might be a way to add a few productive years to his career, and justify giving him what it's going to take to keep him. If Gattis can make the switch McCann should be able to as well.
If nothing else it might be a way to keep Mac in the lineup on his off days while Gattis is behind the plate.

I'm of the opinion that having a good defensive third baseman isn't all that important as long as Simmons is playing short. Assuming of course that the 3B in question hits well. A guy who can stand there, catch what's hit towards him within arm's length, and throw across the diamond fairly consistently would be fine as long as he's putting up an .850-ish OPS. We don't have to have Brooks Robinson at third to be successful.

ChapelHillMatt

07-31-2013, 08:33 PM

Now hitting 343

Dalyn

07-31-2013, 08:46 PM

Now hitting 343

6 multi-hit games in a row.

gtcway

07-31-2013, 09:28 PM

6 multi-hit games in a row.

Maybe one of these days Jason will figure out how to do that too:tchop:

thethe

08-01-2013, 09:29 PM

We should definitely trade this guy! WE NEED HEADLEY!

CyYoung31

08-01-2013, 09:34 PM

We should definitely trade this guy! WE NEED HEADLEY!

I'd still rather have Headley in the long run.

thethe

08-01-2013, 09:36 PM

I'd still rather have Headley in the long run.

In a vacuum sure. But not what we would have to give up and pay for him. I'll take Johnson right now.

CyYoung31

08-01-2013, 09:40 PM

In a vacuum sure. But not what we would have to give up and pay for him. I'll take Johnson right now.

I thought everything was in a vacuum with you.

thethe

08-01-2013, 09:41 PM

I thought everything was in a vacuum with you.

Well, when I was younger..nevermind.

Heyward

08-02-2013, 09:25 AM

I'd still rather have Headley in the long run.

Headley is a FA after next year.

Not unless we got a window to sign him to an extension.

Heyward

08-02-2013, 10:16 PM

Ok Zito, who do you trade Johnson for?

He's 27, entering his prime, maybe he's just fulfilling his potential.

If someone offers a haul, you consider it, but I wouldn't trade him just to trade him.

The Chosen One

08-02-2013, 10:40 PM

Ok Zito, who do you trade Johnson for?

He's 27, entering his prime, maybe he's just fulfilling his potential.

If someone offers a haul, you consider it, but I wouldn't trade him just to trade him.

So it's not a matter of who we'd trade for, it's a matter of what will teams give up for him.

I'd say it's a no brainer to sell high on him. Wren has made plenty of trade rapes the last few years.

Let's trade him for Prado and have Zona eat up Martin's salary. :icwudt:

Gary82

08-02-2013, 10:43 PM

The one thing about trading CJ while his value is high is that other team's gms aren't idiots. They'll see that astronomically high BABIP and think what everyone else thinks...it's a fluke, or no way in this world he'll be able to duplicate it.

I have no idea what his value would be in the trade market.

The Chosen One

08-02-2013, 10:48 PM

zitothebrave

08-02-2013, 10:52 PM

Ok Zito, who do you trade Johnson for?

He's 27, entering his prime, maybe he's just fulfilling his potential.

If someone offers a haul, you consider it, but I wouldn't trade him just to trade him.

First some correction, he's 28, he's exiting his prime. He has a year or 2 in it and the myth of entering prime in late 20s is just that.

Most indications are he'll peak this year or next year (though next year would be a power peak by my guess, can't hit for a better BABIP)

As far as offers. If anyone is willing to give us a serious prospect we have to take that. I don't expect to get a top 50 prospect for him. But let's say the Mariners want a 1B, and they offer one of their good prospects we have to make that move.

Johnson's value is easily replaceable. Even his insane year he is a sub 3 WAR player. Someone like La Stella coudl crush him.

Heyward

08-02-2013, 10:59 PM

First some correction, he's 28, he's exiting his prime. He has a year or 2 in it and the myth of entering prime in late 20s is just that.

Most indications are he'll peak this year or next year (though next year would be a power peak by my guess, can't hit for a better BABIP)

As far as offers. If anyone is willing to give us a serious prospect we have to take that. I don't expect to get a top 50 prospect for him. But let's say the Mariners want a 1B, and they offer one of their good prospects we have to make that move.

Johnson's value is easily replaceable. Even his insane year he is a sub 3 WAR player. Someone like La Stella coudl crush him.

Lol, 26-34 is around prime years in baseball, so you're wrong there.

I don't expect anyone to offer that much for him but some GM's are dumb so who knows.

LaStella could or he could just as easily bust.

I'd prefer to trade Uggla if possible.

zitothebrave

08-02-2013, 11:08 PM

Lol, 26-34 is around prime years in baseball, so you're wrong there..

Prove it

Dalyn

08-02-2013, 11:16 PM

Prove it

http://timenewsfeed.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/math-equations-blackboard.jpg?w=480&h=320&crop=1

Heyward

08-02-2013, 11:23 PM

Prove it

Prove how it's not.

BremanFan88

08-03-2013, 05:43 AM

benchguy

08-03-2013, 06:15 AM

MP is not having a great season definitely not worth the money he is getting..

So it's not a matter of who we'd trade for, it's a matter of what will teams give up for him.

I'd say it's a no brainer to sell high on him. Wren has made plenty of trade rapes the last few years.

Let's trade him for Prado and have Zona eat up Martin's salary. :icwudt:

cajunrevenge

08-03-2013, 06:43 AM

What are you talking about, he has a .932 OPS and he is on pace for 2.0+ WAR per 100 at bats!

thewupk

08-03-2013, 06:50 AM

Lol, 26-34 is around prime years in baseball, so you're wrong there.

If they are using steroids. He's in his prime right now, not about to enter it. 30 is the magical cutoff for me. After that anything can happen to a player.

zitothebrave

08-03-2013, 07:46 AM

Prove how it's not.

Easy, no player has a 9 year prime. Pretty much defeats the meaning of prime.

zitothebrave

08-03-2013, 07:48 AM

What are you talking about, he has a .932 OPS and he is on pace for 2.0+ WAR per 100 at bats!

He has a 2.2 fWAR right now with 353 PA while currently at his hot point (hint, he's gonna have some regression pretty soon)

thethe

08-03-2013, 07:51 AM

He has a 2.2 fWAR right now with 353 PA while currently at his hot point (hint, he's gonna have some regression pretty soon)

You missed the joke.

Tino25Dynasty

08-03-2013, 09:05 AM

Current a .430 BABIP. It's so flukey it's amazing. I hope most fans know how to put that in perspective. If Johnson is on the team next season(sell high Wren) please don't ***** about him not "hitting" like he has this season. You'll be asking for the impossible...unless of course you are under the impression he's become the greatest hitter known to human existence...

I don't think anyone will. Although, I will say, people act like this guy was like a .240 career hitter coming into this season and this is just sucha big damn shock. (although yea, no one, not even him, pictured THIS but...) And I guess because he wasn't the center piece in the Upton trade, people sorta overlooked him. But the guy had a good (not ok but good) hitting record for his career already. Also a reason for him sneaking up like this is I guess because he doesn't really do anything that stands out like he doesn't walk a lot, he doesn't hit homers, he doesn't steal bases.... He basically is just a solid singles and doubles hitter with a solid glove.

If he comes back next year and just hits what he has for his career with the same glove, people should steal be ecstatic about the guy.

thewupk

08-03-2013, 09:22 AM

I don't think anyone will. Although, I will say, people act like this guy was like a .240 career hitter coming into this season and this is just sucha big damn shock. (although yea, no one, not even him, pictured THIS but...) And I guess because he wasn't the center piece in the Upton trade, people sorta overlooked him. But the guy had a good (not ok but good) hitting record for his career already. Also a reason for him sneaking up like this is I guess because he doesn't really do anything that stands out like he doesn't walk a lot, he doesn't hit homers, he doesn't steal bases.... He basically is just a solid singles and doubles hitter with a solid glove.

If he comes back next year and just hits what he has for his career with the same glove, people should steal be ecstatic about the guy.

um no

thethe

08-03-2013, 09:25 AM

Yeah, he's adequate out there IMO. He can make the play coming in on the ball or going to his right decently. Going to his left is tough for him. I certainly don't think he is the horrible defender that he is characterized on this board.

thewupk

08-03-2013, 09:31 AM

thethe

08-03-2013, 09:34 AM

Well he has horrible range which is the biggest concern. And it really is that bad.

Yes, the range to his left is bad. But he has a strong accurate arm and is not bad with the glove. Range is one ingredient of defense (albeit probably the most important). I just don't think he is as bad as described. I would never call him good or above average though.

nsacpi

08-03-2013, 09:37 AM

With Andrelton at short, the issues with Johnson's range are not as bad as they would be with another shortstop.

thethe

08-03-2013, 09:46 AM

With Andrelton at short, the issues with Johnson's range are not as bad as they would be with another shortstop.

I agree. If Johnson was a better defensive player he would be extremely valuable. However, I believe that he is a better offensive player than given credit for. Obviously he isn't this good but I do believe that he has entered his prime and will continue to be an above average offensive player. I just don't see the rush in getting rid of him. Obviously, if some team is willing to give up value equivalent to this year of production then make the move. I just don't believe that is going to happen.

thewupk

08-03-2013, 10:11 AM

Yes, the range to his left is bad. But he has a strong accurate arm and is not bad with the glove. Range is one ingredient of defense (albeit probably the most important). I just don't think he is as bad as described. I would never call him good or above average though.

Range is the most important factor at this level. The minors usually weed out the players that can't field at all in infield. He's a bad fielder. And that's a pretty much universal opinion except for Braves homers.

gilesfan

08-03-2013, 10:18 AM

thewupk

08-03-2013, 10:18 AM

I agree. If Johnson was a better defensive player he would be extremely valuable. However, I believe that he is a better offensive player than given credit for. Obviously he isn't this good but I do believe that he has entered his prime and will continue to be an above average offensive player. I just don't see the rush in getting rid of him. Obviously, if some team is willing to give up value equivalent to this year of production then make the move. I just don't believe that is going to happen.

I don't think anyone is really rushing to get rid of him. They are a) trying to tempter peoples expectations of him in the future and b) are ok keeping him at third for at least one more year and maybe through 2015 while he's a fairly inexpensive player. Johnson was a super 2 I believe coming into this year. So he has 3 more arbitration years coming up. If he wins the batting title this year then he's going to start getting expensive fast. And at that point he would be a perfect trade high candidate like we did with Prado.

thewupk

08-03-2013, 10:22 AM

Johnson is not a solid glove. Amazing how hitting well makes someones love look better.

His offensive numbers for his career arent terroble but look at what parks hes played in.

If someone wants to give up any sort of value (productive player or B prospect) you gotta jump on it. Hes gonna come crashing down.

He has a career 109 wrc+ so that eliminates any park effects you think he's had. And he's a much better hitter on the road for his career too. He is a good hitter. Not this good obviously but I believe he can be a high 280's to low 300's hitter for a few more years thanks to his awesome LD%. Keep him while he's in expensive and you try to look for other options then sell high on him.

nsacpi

08-03-2013, 10:22 AM

I don't think anyone is really rushing to get rid of him. They are a) trying to tempter peoples expectations of him in the future and b) are ok keeping him at third for at least one more year and maybe through 2015 while he's a fairly inexpensive player. Johnson was a super 2 I believe coming into this year. So he has 3 more arbitration years coming up. If he wins the batting title this year then he's going to start getting expensive fast. And at that point he would be a perfect trade high candidate like we did with Prado.

That's the way I look at it. I would add that Johnson's future here will be partly driven by how Salcedo and our other infield prospects develop.

thethe

08-03-2013, 10:25 AM

That's the way I look at it. I would add that Johnson's future here will be partly driven by how Salcedo and our other infield prospects develop.

Thats why I think holding onto Johnson for another year is important.

thethe

08-03-2013, 10:25 AM

He has a career 109 wrc+ so that eliminates any park effects you think he's had. And he's a much better hitter on the road for his career too. He is a good hitter. Not this good obviously but I believe he can be a high 280's to low 300's hitter for a few more years thanks to his awesome LD%. Keep him while he's in expensive and you try to look for other options then sell high on him.

Yeah, I don't get it. Guy has always hit reasonably well and then you watch him hit and you understand why. Beautiful swing and make solid contact often. He even has a better batting eye than his BB%/K% indicate. He just likes to swing.

nsacpi

08-03-2013, 10:26 AM

He has a career 109 wrc+ so that eliminates any park effects you think he's had. And he's a much better hitter on the road for his career too. He is a good hitter. Not this good obviously but I believe he can be a high 280's to low 300's hitter for a few more years thanks to his awesome LD%. Keep him while he's in expensive and you try to look for other options then sell high on him.

Some regression is inevitable, but the question is how much. My feeling is Johnson will settle at about .300 batting average and .330 OBP. That's not bad, but not elite. And when you look at the whole package--speed, power, defense--it probably translates into a third baseman who is not in the top half of major league regulars at the position. For now I'm enjoying what Johnson is doing and I'm happy for him. But it is important to have a realistic view of what to expect from him going forward.

nsacpi

08-03-2013, 10:31 AM

Btw I like what Fredi has done with our current lineup and one of the things I especially like is Johnson hitting ahead of Uggla. I think that's going to help the team a lot the rest of the way.

gilesfan

08-03-2013, 11:13 AM

Hea a lot like Laroche. Good enough to start on some teams but for a great team, you would always be looking for an upgrade.

Heyward

08-03-2013, 12:03 PM

Heyward

08-03-2013, 12:07 PM

His defense is hardly great but people act like he's the worst defender in baseball.

He's decent defensively, not great, not terrible, but he's better than the haters think.

Dalyn

08-03-2013, 12:32 PM

He just needs to keep the ball to his right, and he will be fine.

GovClintonTyree

08-03-2013, 02:44 PM

Well he has horrible range which is the biggest concern. And it really is that bad.

I know what the numbers say and ostensibly why. I just don't see it. #notaflatearther #skepticalaboutdefensivestats

holden

08-03-2013, 02:51 PM

He is having a crazy BABIP season but to hit above .300 you usually do.

I like him. He sucks defensively, and he's not Chipper, but he's a big reason we are where we are. 'Bout time some random signing worked out for us.

elmonthc

08-03-2013, 04:01 PM

Heyward

08-03-2013, 04:41 PM

Surprised Giles didnt respond in this thread. Would like to know if he still thinks cj sux. Credit to fw for wanting him included in the deal. Or the scout who saw something.

Still rather have prado at 3rd.

Not sure if you've seen Prado this year but he's not doing all that well.

Johnson > Prado.

thewupk

08-03-2013, 05:26 PM

Not sure if you've seen Prado this year but he's not doing all that well.

Johnson > Prado.

Prado has been the anti Chris Johnson. His BABIP is only 274 this year compared to 311 for his career. Since hte ASB though he's been killing the ball. Prado is a better player than Johnson despite what's happened this year. He's not 10 million better though.

Tino25Dynasty

08-03-2013, 06:24 PM

Tino25Dynasty

08-03-2013, 06:35 PM

I don't think anyone is really rushing to get rid of him. They are a) trying to tempter peoples expectations of him in the future and b) are ok keeping him at third for at least one more year and maybe through 2015 while he's a fairly inexpensive player. Johnson was a super 2 I believe coming into this year. So he has 3 more arbitration years coming up. If he wins the batting title this year then he's going to start getting expensive fast. And at that point he would be a perfect trade high candidate like we did with Prado.

I definitely agree with this... Hell, if he finishes in the top 3, he'll be a valuable piece to trade while he's high....

ChapelHillMatt

08-03-2013, 08:11 PM

I've come to the conclusion that BABIP is a stupid stat.

All it does is discredit those who are performing and allows people to make excuses for those that aren't.

Everyone wanted to get Upton without giving up Prado, well we essentially did. There is no way Prado would be more productive than Johnson has been.

ChapelHillMatt

08-03-2013, 08:13 PM

Unless we differ in our definition of "solid", I still think he has a pretty solid glove. Meaning, he's not great or gold glove anything but I definitively don't think he's an embarrassment out there at 3rd or anything. JMO

Agreed

People love to over exaggerate how bad he is defensively. He doesn't have great range and that hurts him but he's no where near as bad as people make him out to be.

CyYoung31

08-03-2013, 08:27 PM

I've come to the conclusion that BABIP is a stupid stat.

All it does is discredit those who are performing and allows people to make excuses for those that aren't.

Umm no. It's used as a predictor of future performance. Nothing more.

Heyward

08-03-2013, 08:33 PM

I definitely agree with this... Hell, if he finishes in the top 3, he'll be a valuable piece to trade while he's high....

Yes and No.

Who do you trade him for?

Unproven prospects?

And who plays 3B.

I don't expect him to hit this well next year but I don't see him being awful either.

bravesnumberone

08-03-2013, 08:39 PM

Honestly, we didn't get CJ in that trade to be leading the team in batting average. We got him to hit low in the lineup and provide at least serviceable defense while other people (BJ) were supposed to produce more. Him hitting this well has been a blessing.

skidlee

08-03-2013, 09:10 PM

BremanFan88

08-03-2013, 10:02 PM

I am not going to say that trading CJ is an dumb idea. If a GM wants to pay a high price let him but I don't think you trade him just to sell high on him. We need someone to play 3B next year and beyond.

I'm just happy the people in charge are smart enough to realize when a player is having a fluke year and won't pencil them in for next year and beyond based on it like some fans seem to be doing. If anyone in the front office thinks CJ is a viable long term solution at 3B then we have major issues.

skidlee

08-03-2013, 10:04 PM

I'm just happy the people in charge are smart enough to realize when a player is having a fluke year and won't pencil them in for next year and beyond based on it like some fans seem to be doing. If anyone in the front office thinks CJ is a viable long term solution at 3B then we have major issues.

So you think he isn't even an above avg major league 3B?

And who do you want to replace him with?

BremanFan88

08-03-2013, 10:07 PM

I doubt anyone thinks he will be this good but around a 270/280 average is fair.

It would be fair if he was actually a decent defender but obviously he's not. That and not a lot of power and not a walker. Pretty much has no value as a starter if he's a .280 hitter.

skidlee

08-03-2013, 10:08 PM

He isn't a gold glover but he makes the plays he should.

Who do you want to replace him?

Heyward

08-03-2013, 10:10 PM

It would be fair if he was actually a decent defender but obviously he's not. That and not a lot of power and not a walker. Pretty much has no value as a starter if he's a .280 hitter.

This he's not a good defender crap is stupid.

He's not elite but I'm not seeing it where he's an abortion at third either and should be a DH. His defense is much better than some are saying.

skidlee

08-03-2013, 10:10 PM

He is a post from John Sickles about Chris Not sure if its been posted before

***It is really hard for me to believe that Atlanta Braves third baseman Chris Johnson is hitting .346/.384/.471. More power to him (no pun intended), but when he was a prospect I didn't think he would be anything close to that good. Jeff Sullivan wrote an article about Johnson at Fangraphs yesterday which got me thinking about him.

Digging through some old reports, I found this comment from the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, which was a good summary of my analysis of Johnson at the time.

Chris Johnson has some pop in his bat, but his unimpressive strike zone judgment holds his offense back. His OPS was just +3 percent in the Pacific Coast League last year, and he looked overmatched in his major league time, granted a 22 at-bat sample is tiny. On the positive side, he's a solid defender at third base, with decent range and a very strong throwing arm. I think Johnson can hit .250 with 15 homers as season in the majors, but his OBP would be below average and his overall production would be substandard for a corner player. Unless his plate discipline takes a huge leap forward, I think he's destined to bounce between Triple-A and the major league bench jobs. Grade C.

Jeff points out Johnson's unsustainable .426 BABIP this year. But he also points out that, with a minimum 1500 plate appearances, Johnson's career .364 BABIP ranks fourth all-time, behind three players you might have heard of named Ty Cobb, Shoeless Joe Jackson, and Rogers Hornsby.

Jeff runs through more numbers, but here is his conclusion:

As with all things, the Chris Johnson truth lies in the in-between. He is neither as good as his BABIP, nor is he probably as average as an average BABIP. It's a matter of degree of regression, and that's not something we can easily predict. For Johnson, with his .364 career BABIP, he's been worth 1.0 WAR per 600 plate appearances. The one time his BABIP was normal, he came in below replacement-level. How much he sinks is a matter of some interest to us. It's also a matter of extreme interest to Johnson, since his BABIP looks like it'll determine the course of his career. So far, at least, so good. So astonishingly good.

I don't know what else to say really, other than Johnson has turned out to be much better than I thought he'd be.

Heyward

08-03-2013, 10:11 PM

I'm just happy the people in charge are smart enough to realize when a player is having a fluke year and won't pencil them in for next year and beyond based on it like some fans seem to be doing. If anyone in the front office thinks CJ is a viable long term solution at 3B then we have major issues.

Who replaces him at 3rd then?

Where would you rank him among current 3B?

BremanFan88

08-03-2013, 10:14 PM

So you think he isn't even an above avg major league 3B?

And who do you want to replace him with?

Above average? I'm not even sure he'd be average. I think CJ is a .350 BABIP guy which would be pretty damn good if he had another part of the game to compliment it. But he doesn't. He's probably a .280 hitter but would have like a .320 OBP and average at best with the glove. That's nothing special and easily replaceable.
I hope the Braves actively look for a replacement/upgrade and if they can't manage anything then La Stella should get a shot. At least he can get on base if nothing else.

BremanFan88

08-03-2013, 10:16 PM

This he's not a good defender crap is stupid.

He's not elite but I'm not seeing it where he's an abortion at third either and should be a DH. His defense is much better than some are saying.

If you can show me something that says he's at least average then I'll stop saying he's a crap defender but...
http://puu.sh/3Td7a.png

BremanFan88

08-03-2013, 10:17 PM

Who replaces him at 3rd then?

Where would you rank him among current 3B?

Whoever is an upgrade.

In terms of what? Just this season or long term?

Heyward

08-03-2013, 10:20 PM

If you can show me something that says he's at least average then I'll stop saying he's a crap defender but...
http://puu.sh/3Td7a.png

So should the Tigers replace Miggy because he's not a great defender?

skidlee

08-03-2013, 10:20 PM

Above average? I'm not even sure he'd be average. I think CJ is a .350 BABIP guy which would be pretty damn good if he had another part of the game to compliment it. But he doesn't. He's probably a .280 hitter but would have like a .320 OBP and average at best with the glove. That's nothing special and easily replaceable.
I hope the Braves actively look for a replacement/upgrade and if they can't manage anything then La Stella should get a shot. At least he can get on base if nothing else.

Complete disagree that is easily replaceable.

Hell most everyone here wanted Fat Juan playing over Chris. All Fat Juan can do is hit HRs.

Chris is a solid player that people just don't like because they missed it. Its happened before and it will happen again.

If people want to trade Uggla then they can't trade Chris too in the same off-season. Assuming Lestalla is the 2B or 3B next year. Their is nothing on the free agent market for 3B and the braves don't have anyone knocking the door down to play 3B. I think people need to realize Chris is here to stay for the foreseeable future. Wren would need to trade Uggla for a starting 3b or 2B and not take back much salary. Thats not going to be easy.

Heyward

08-03-2013, 10:21 PM

Whoever is an upgrade.

In terms of what? Just this season or long term?

Who is an upgrade then if it's so easy to find a 3B.

This season, long term.

cajunrevenge

08-03-2013, 10:22 PM

sgl;ash;haah

Heyward

08-03-2013, 10:23 PM

skidlee

08-03-2013, 10:23 PM

Completely disagree he's easily replaceable.

3B is a really weak position league-wide.

I haven't looked at the FA market but not sure there is much out there in the 3B department.

Third Basemen
Wilson Betemit *
Eric Chavez
Mark DeRosa
Mike Fontenot
Jerry Hairston Jr.
Brandon Inge
Placido Polanco
Mark Reynolds
Juan Uribe
Kevin Youkilis
Michael Young

I might would consider putting Omar Infante and Kelly Johnson on the list but I wouldn't consider them more of a 3B. They are more 2B that might could play 3rd.

BremanFan88

08-03-2013, 10:24 PM

So should the Tigers replace Miggy because he's not a great defender?

I think this is where you don't understand where I'm coming from. Miggy's offense overwhelmingly covers up how bad he is at defense so it's just something you have to deal with. CJ doesn't do that. If you're hitting .280 with little pop and OBP skills you're not making up for your poor defense.

Heyward

08-03-2013, 10:25 PM

Third Basemen
Wilson Betemit *
Eric Chavez
Mark DeRosa
Mike Fontenot
Jerry Hairston Jr.
Brandon Inge
Placido Polanco
Mark Reynolds
Juan Uribe
Kevin Youkilis
Michael Young

Youk and Reynolds are the only ones that intrigue me a little.

Outside of that, barf.

I can understanding selling high if someone blows your socks off. But just trading him for a few so so prospects no way.

I'd like to see Uggla dealt this winter and LaStella be the everyday 2B.

bravesnumberone

08-03-2013, 10:26 PM

I can't wait to see who overpays Uribe.

Gary82

08-03-2013, 10:27 PM

So should the Tigers replace Miggy because he's not a great defender?

This really isn't a serious question, is it? Look at his wOBP and wRC+. What he brings is offense, and a HELL lot of it. Whatever deficiencies he has defensively is obliterated by his offensive value.

skidlee

08-03-2013, 10:27 PM

Youk and Reynolds are the only ones that intrigue me a little.

Outside of that, barf.

I can understanding selling high if someone blows your socks off. But just trading him for a few so so prospects no way.

I'd like to see Uggla dealt this winter and LaStella be the everyday 2B.

If people complain about Chris's D @ 3rd I would love for them to watch Mark Reynolds for a week.

Youk just can't stay healthy. I would want something else over him.

Heyward

08-03-2013, 10:28 PM

I think this is where you don't understand where I'm coming from. Miggy's offense overwhelmingly covers up how bad he is at defense so it's just something you have to deal with. CJ doesn't do that. If you're hitting .280 with little pop and OBP skills you're not making up for your poor defense.

Again, I'm not seeing it where he's an atrocious defender.

I'm not saying he's the best defensive player in baseball but I just don't see it where people say he's a butcher on defense at 3rd. I really do not. Hell, Fredi has left him in tight games lately and not used Janish as a defensive replacement.

Pedro Alvarez isn't great defensivley, should the Pirates get a new 3B?

Heyward

08-03-2013, 10:28 PM

This really isn't a serious question, is it? Look at his wOBP and wRC+. What he brings is offense, and a HELL lot of it. Whatever deficiencies he has defensively is obliterated by his offensive value.

I was joking on Miggy, chill lol.

Gary82

08-03-2013, 10:29 PM

I was joking on Miggy, chill lol.

We cool, we cool.

BremanFan88

08-03-2013, 10:29 PM

Complete disagree that is easily replaceable.

Hell most everyone here wanted Fat Juan playing over Chris. All Fat Juan can do is hit HRs.

Chris is a solid player that people just don't like because they missed it. Its happened before and it will happen again.

If people want to trade Uggla then they can't trade Chris too in the same off-season. Assuming Lestalla is the 2B or 3B next year. Their is nothing on the free agent market for 3B and the braves don't have anyone knocking the door down to play 3B. I think people need to realize Chris is here to stay for the foreseeable future. Wren would need to trade Uggla for a starting 3b or 2B and not take back much salary. Thats not going to be easy.

Guess it depends on your definition of solid...

"I think people need to realize Chris is here to stay for the foreseeable future."

Then that will be unfortunate.

bravesnumberone

08-03-2013, 10:29 PM

Yeah, CJ isn't winning any Triple Crowns. I would trade him with the right offer, but we would need to get some substantial value in the deal that involves finding a long term solution at third.

Heyward

08-03-2013, 10:30 PM

If people complain about Chris's D @ 3rd I would love for them to watch Mark Reynolds for a week.

Youk just can't stay healthy. I would want something else over him.

Or Michael Young.

Third base is such a weak position around the league. I would just keep him unless a team offers a haul which is unlikely.

Gary82

08-03-2013, 10:31 PM

I wish Salcedo would take the next step. I haven't been following him, but earlier on I thought he was doing pretty well.

Heyward

08-03-2013, 10:31 PM

Guess it depends on your definition of solid...

"I think people need to realize Chris is here to stay for the foreseeable future."

Then that will be unfortunate.

Is 2-3 years foreseeable future?

skidlee

08-03-2013, 10:31 PM

Guess it depends on your definition of solid...

"I think people need to realize Chris is here to stay for the foreseeable future."

Then that will be unfortunate.

I have yet to see who you want to replace him.

BremanFan88

08-03-2013, 10:33 PM

Again, I'm not seeing it where he's an atrocious defender.

I'm not saying he's the best defensive player in baseball but I just don't see it where people say he's a butcher on defense at 3rd. I really do not. Hell, Fredi has left him in tight games lately and not used Janish as a defensive replacement.

Pedro Alvarez isn't great defensivley, should the Pirates get a new 3B?

All I can do is post the stats that show CJ being at the bottom of defense.

It's not about being a butcher. It's about having no range. CJ has no range at all and having a statue at 3rd hurts. And no I don't think having Simmons makes up for that...

Alvarez is a positive defender...

skidlee

08-03-2013, 10:33 PM

Or Michael Young.

Third base is such a weak position around the league. I would just keep him unless a team offers a haul which is unlikely.

And even Young plays a worst 3rd then CJ does.

3rd base is not an easy position to fill right now.

Heyward

08-03-2013, 10:33 PM

Bremen, who replaces him then since he's easily replaceable.

Since 3B is such a stacked position around the league.

Heyward

08-03-2013, 10:34 PM

All I can do is post the stats that show CJ being at the bottom of defense.

It's not about being a butcher. It's about having no range. CJ has no range at all and having a statue at 3rd hurts. And no I don't think having Simmons makes up for that...

Alvarez is a positive defender...

I disagree he has no range. He doesn't have great range but hardly awful either.

I think having Simmons makes up for it.

And Alvarez has more errors than CJ.....

skidlee

08-03-2013, 10:34 PM

I wish Salcedo would take the next step. I haven't been following him, but earlier on I thought he was doing pretty well.

He has had a decent year but he isn't ready for the majors.

BremanFan88

08-03-2013, 10:37 PM

I have yet to see who you want to replace him.

I can't tell you who'd going to be on the market skid. Trades happen all the time and maybe someone is made available. Whether it's a MLB guy or a prospect. All I've said is that the Braves seriously need to look into an upgrade and sell high, if possible, on Johnson. That will benefit our team more than locking Chris Johnson in as the 3B of the foreseeable future.

BremanFan88

08-03-2013, 10:39 PM

I disagree he has no range. He doesn't have great range but hardly awful either.

I think having Simmons makes up for it.

And Alvarez has more errors than CJ.....

You're using errors to determine defense? Come on now. That's a terrible way to judge a player. You must think Elvis Andrus is terrible then.

skidlee

08-03-2013, 10:39 PM

I can't tell you who'd going to be on the market skid. Trades happen all the time and maybe someone is made available. Whether it's a MLB guy or a prospect. All I've said is that the Braves seriously need to look into an upgrade and sell high, if possible, on Johnson. That will benefit our team more than locking Chris Johnson in as the 3B of the foreseeable future.

Your not going to find much on the market just FYI

We traded nothing for him. He was a throw in to the deal. Nothing wrong with him being our 3B for a year or 2 more.

Replacing him isn't going to be easy.

The braves are not going to go with 2 rookies in the same infield (2b & 3B).

So its either Uggla or CJ going in a trade IMO and both are long shots to actually happen.

Heyward

08-03-2013, 10:40 PM

I can't tell you who'd going to be on the market skid. Trades happen all the time and maybe someone is made available. Whether it's a MLB guy or a prospect. All I've said is that the Braves seriously need to look into an upgrade and sell high, if possible, on Johnson. That will benefit our team more than locking Chris Johnson in as the 3B of the foreseeable future.

Teams know his BABIP is high and likely won't repeat it. So I doubt anyone is gonna offer enough to consider moving him.

Trading him for some so so prospects would be stupid since we would probably be downgrading overall. And there is no in house replacement ready.

Is 2-3 years the foreseeable future.

BremanFan88

08-03-2013, 10:41 PM

Bremen, who replaces him then since he's easily replaceable.

Since 3B is such a stacked position around the league.

I don't understand why you're being a hostile. I never said it was stacked. All I've said is that I hope we can sell high on CJ and find an upgrade. That would be ideal. I'm fully aware about the logistics and haven't said we have to do this or we're doomed. It would just be a great move to make for us.

Heyward

08-03-2013, 10:42 PM

I don't understand why you're being a hostile. I never said it was stacked. All I've said is that I hope we can sell high on CJ and find an upgrade. That would be ideal. I'm fully aware about the logistics and haven't said we have to do this or we're doomed. It would just be a great move to make for us.

Read above.

BremanFan88

08-03-2013, 10:43 PM

Your not going to find much on the market just FYI

We traded nothing for him. He was a throw in to the deal. Nothing wrong with him being our 3B for a year or 2 more.

Replacing him isn't going to be easy.

The braves are not going to go with 2 rookies in the same infield (2b & 3B).

So its either Uggla or CJ going in a trade IMO and both are long shots to actually happen.

And I'm not saying you're wrong. It would just be nice to sell high and upgrade. I just know that I'm not going to like Chris Johnson if he's not going to have a BABIP of .430 next season...

BremanFan88

08-03-2013, 10:45 PM

Teams know his BABIP is high and likely won't repeat it. So I doubt anyone is gonna offer enough to consider moving him.

Trading him for some so so prospects would be stupid since we would probably be downgrading overall. And there is no in house replacement ready.

Is 2-3 years the foreseeable future.

Exactly but you never know what can happen when some of these GM's get desperate enough.

Like I said sell high if you sell. So so prospects would be pointless obviously.

skidlee

08-03-2013, 10:48 PM

And I'm not saying you're wrong. It would just be nice to sell high and upgrade. I just know that I'm not going to like Chris Johnson if he's not going to have a BABIP of .430 next season...

I think the word "upgrade" is the problem. I don't see much of an upgrade out there. Depending on how the team is constructed ie 2B & C. If Gattis and Uggla are our C and 2B next year I am worried. But if we can some how keep Mac and get a more contact hitter for 2B then having CJ at 3rd and hitter 8th won't be a bad problem. But if you want an upgrade then your going to be spending alot of money and/or alot of prospects.

Heyward

08-03-2013, 10:49 PM

Exactly but you never know what can happen when some of these GM's get desperate enough.

Like I said sell high if you sell. So so prospects would be pointless obviously.

Obviously there are dumb GM's out there and if a team offered a big offer, it's something to consider.

I just really doubt it happens.

BremanFan88

08-03-2013, 10:56 PM

I think the word "upgrade" is the problem. I don't see much of an upgrade out there. Depending on how the team is constructed ie 2B & C. If Gattis and Uggla are our C and 2B next year I am worried. But if we can some how keep Mac and get a more contact hitter for 2B then having CJ at 3rd and hitter 8th won't be a bad problem. But if you want an upgrade then your going to be spending alot of money and/or alot of prospects.

To me an upgrade would be someone that can hit .270 and is a good fielder. That would be better for us IMO. I'll use Headley as an example to illustrate what I mean. He's hitting .235 on the year but still has a higher WAR than CJ who's leading the league in hitting. Even though Headley's average isn't very good he's doing all the other things that CJ can't do. Get on base, field, base running etc. To me if you can find a player that can just do a little bit of everything at a decent clip that would be an upgrade. Also I wasn't saying we should trade for Headley. Alvarez and Frazier could of been used as well. Maybe we get a new Chris Johnson that someone doesn't want but wasn't given a chance who knows....

skidlee

08-03-2013, 10:57 PM

Its just a whole lot easier said then done. I think CJ is here for a little while.

BremanFan88

08-03-2013, 11:04 PM

Its just a whole lot easier said then done. I think CJ is here for a little while.

No doubt I just hope we're not all sitting here in a year wishing we had a better all around 3B. I know La Stella is just a prospect but the way he makes contact and gets on base(the getting on base part is the big charm for me) I think he could be more productive IF he could play 3B at even an average level. If we're going to go with a light hitter bottom of the order guy at third then why not one with on base skills and a solid glove. Of course that's assuming he could play the position. Basically what I'm saying is that the Braves have put themselves in a less than ideal position not being prepared for Chipper retiring...

Heyward

08-03-2013, 11:08 PM

Lots of teams around baseball wish they had a better all around 3B.

It's just a weak position league wide.

BremanFan88

08-03-2013, 11:11 PM

Lots of teams around baseball wish they had a better all around 3B.

It's just a weak position league wide.

It totally is. I'm just a defense first kind of guy when it comes to certain positions and it bothers me that Simmons is the only infielder that has any range. I just think about how better the pitching would be with less statues out there. It makes me feel all warm and fuzzy...

CyYoung31

08-03-2013, 11:14 PM

It totally is. I'm just a defense first kind of guy when it comes to certain positions and it bothers me that Simmons is the only infielder that has any range. I just think about how better the pitching would be with less statues out there. It makes me feel all warm and fuzzy...

If the pitching was any better, we could field 9 BJ Uptons.

BremanFan88

08-03-2013, 11:16 PM

If the pitching was any better, we could field 9 BJ Uptons.

That would be glorious but Brian Jordan's head would explode...which now that I think about it isn't a bad thing.

CyYoung31

08-03-2013, 11:19 PM

That would be glorious but Brian Jordan's head would explode...which now that I think about it isn't a bad thing.

I'm pretty sure it's nothing but lasagna in there anyway.

BremanFan88

08-04-2013, 12:49 AM

Wait, I just read that CJ has only made 2 outs this season(article from August 1st) when he's hit the ball to LF. What kind of weird ass voodoo black magic bull**** is he into and where do I get it?

NinersSBChamps

08-04-2013, 12:53 AM

Wait, I just read that CJ has only made 2 outs this season(article from August 1st) when he's hit the ball to LF. What kind of weird ass voodoo black magic bull**** is he into and where do I get it?

That is just insane.

BremanFan88

08-04-2013, 01:03 AM

That is just insane.

http://images.wikia.com/adventuretimewithfinnandjake/images/b/b3/Kevin-Butler-Mind-Blown.gif

ChapelHillMatt

08-04-2013, 04:51 AM

Complete disagree that is easily replaceable.

Chris is a solid player that people just don't like because they missed it. Its happened before and it will happen again.

This is what it comes down too, people don't like being wrong, even when it benefits the Braves. People had no problem with the idea of Prado being a long term solution at 3rd but hate the idea of Chris being there for awhile. I'm sorry I just don't see the difference between the two other than the fact that Prado can play more positions. He's hit everywhere he's been, this is not a fluke. I don't think anyone has a problem with upgrading the position but this notion that we have to get rid of him is stupid. He's a productive player and that's what we need right now. Replacing Chipper Jones isn't an easy task and he's done it better than most could have.

thewupk

08-04-2013, 08:27 AM

This is what it comes down too, people don't like being wrong, even when it benefits the Braves. People had no problem with the idea of Prado being a long term solution at 3rd but hate the idea of Chris being there for awhile. I'm sorry I just don't see the difference between the two other than the fact that Prado can play more positions. He's hit everywhere he's been, this is not a fluke. I don't think anyone has a problem with upgrading the position but this notion that we have to get rid of him is stupid. He's a productive player and that's what we need right now. Replacing Chipper Jones isn't an easy task and he's done it better than most could have.

The main difference is that given a normal year I think Prado is a little bit of a better hitter but not much but it also a better defender. I don't think many people wanted to pay Prado what the Dbacks did to keep him here long term. The same will be true of Johnson in a year or two as well.