4/26/15 MLB GAME THREAD: Markakis still the MAN leading off

[rico43]

BRAVES

1. Nick Markakis (L) RF
2. Andrelton Simmons (R) SS
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
4. Kelly Johnson (L) 3B
5. Jonny Gomes (R) LF
6. Jace Peterson (L) 2B
7. Christian Bethancourt (R) C
8. Eric Young Jr. (S) CF
9. Trevor Cahill (R) P

PHILLIES

1. Ben Revere (L) LF
2. Odubel Herrera (L) CF
3. Chase Utley (L) 2B
4. Jeff Francoeur (R) RF
5. Ryan Howard (L) 1B
6. Cesar Hernandez (S) 3B
7. Cameron Rupp (R) C
8. Freddy Galvis (S) SS
9. Jerome Williams (R) P

Notice that Galvis is back in the lineup after seemingly throwing his arm out last night.

No surprise that A.J. is getting a rest. Betcha he still pinch-hits, given the situation.

[Julio3000]

I wish we could tell our 2009 selves that Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur were the cleanup hitters in a 2015 Braves-Phillies matchup.

[emk418]

Jesus just play Chris Johnson. And Jace batting 6th?

[jpx7]

I wish we could tell our 2009 selves that Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur were the cleanup hitters in a 2015 Braves-Phillies matchup.

Might not be the first thing I'd tell my 2009 self, though, were I to gain that power.

[Julio3000]

I hope Not Not takes note notes when Markakis works the count like that.

[The Chosen One]

LOL Freeman.

[The Chosen One]

Wooo we don't have Jason anymore but we can root for Jacen. WOOO

[Dalyn]

Jace responds! :tchop:

[The Chosen One]

DARN. CB hit that hard.

[The Chosen One]

Jace responds! :tchop:
:FrediConfident:

[chop2chip]

DARN. CB hit that hard.
I thought he got that one. Just a little too cold right now for the ball to jump.

[WaitingFor2017]

If the team takes 3-5 more losses playing Chris Johnson, Bethancourt, and Maybin 5-6 games a week, then so be it. There's no reason for Gomes, KJ, and Pierzynski to be getting the majority of playing time in a rebuilding year. You need to play CJ to try to get max value for him and playing Bethancourt/Maybin just to see what you have for the future. This is very frustrating.

[Dalyn]

:FrediConfident:

No.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/xQ2nHGRucporwTKM8YRRAwNipLBImJr1TjhmloOm7_yG9VCR9t IOJUfd4y1P7Ztutiru3g=s99

[keithlaw]

TOOTBLAN

[USMA76]

When Frenchy first hit that ball, I thought it was gone. Let's hope we can keep Ryan Howard in the yard with two men on base.

[keithlaw]

Well at least we got that draft pick too

[USMA76]

When Frenchy first hit that ball, I thought it was gone. Let's hope we can keep Ryan Howard in the yard with two men on base.

That certainly didn't turn out very well, did it?

[WaitingFor2017]

Wisler, please.

[stpeteirish]

When Frenchy first hit that ball, I thought it was gone. Let's hope we can keep Ryan Howard in the yard with two men on base.

uh-huh

[thewupk]

When Frenchy first hit that ball, I thought it was gone. Let's hope we can keep Ryan Howard in the yard with two men on base.

almost kept him in the yard

[Garmel]

Cahill is hot garbage.

[rico43]

Had to laugh when I saw Gameday graphic put that pitch square in the middle of the plate the size of a beach ball (it seemed). Braves have singlehandedly extended Howard's career for a few weeks this weekend.

[chop2chip]

I give Cahill about two more weeks until we see Folty

[stpeteirish]

Cahill's a disaster.

[Dalyn]

I like Cahill protecting our draft slot. Jace can shine and not hurt the rebuild. A team player, that man Cahill.

[chop2chip]

6 k's for folty through 3 innings.

[BRule]

Guys!!!! Just give him time, with enough time we will be able to flip him for a top 50 prospect. Be patient

[keithlaw]

I like Cahill protecting our draft slot. Jace can shine and not hurt the rebuild. A team player, that man Cahill.

He's not the pitcher we want, he's the giant baby we need

[atl717]

Cahill does not have the stuff to pitch up here. Way to not do your homework Hart.

[WaitingFor2017]

A career .099 is swinging away in a sacrifice situation?


HUH?

[Russ2dollas]

I know I'm suppossed to just look at Folty's K/BB....but hits and runs are hard to ignore. I just think his FB is too flat to be good.

[Russ2dollas]

can markakis hit it out in batting practice? has anyone seen this happen?

[chop2chip]

Cahill does not have the stuff to pitch up here. Way to not do your homework Hart.
His stuff is fine.

His location is atrocious and he has no confidence. He's constantly shaking off Bethancourt.

[The Chosen One]

Kelllllyyyy babyyyy

[UNCBlue012]

That was my comment as well. Cahill has decent stuff if you are actually watching him. His issue is his command AND control along with no confidence at all. He thinks everything will be destroyed in due time - which looks to be accurate.

With his sinker and fastball, he may actually work well out of the BP. I'd say attempt to bring a guy like Cornelly or Martin out to stretch.

Also, 3-3!

[thewupk]

Kelllllyyyy babyyyy

Baby Braves will lead us back to the promised land

[Russ2dollas]

are there any contract/super 2/etc type issues that would make us keep Folty and/or Wisler down longer? would they just suck this this year and hold onto Wisler for 2 more weeks to get two more years control? IIRC Folty's clock has started in some way, right?

[Julio3000]

We knew KJ would be a middle-of-the order hitter one day.

[Julio3000]

Kelllllyyyy babyyyy

I really like having Kelly on the team. Like, no joke.

[thethe]

Cahil is still generating ground balls in bunches. I'm not giving up on him.

[chop2chip]

are there any contract/super 2/etc type issues that would make us keep Folty and/or Wisler down longer? would they just suck this this year and hold onto Wisler for 2 more weeks to get two more years control? IIRC Folty's clock has started in some way, right?The Super Two thing is still an issue, but we have already gained an extra year of control. I think the bigger issue is making sure we call these guys up based on readiness and not on need. We aren't good enough for that to be a justifiable reason.

[UNCBlue012]

are there any contract/super 2/etc type issues that would make us keep Folty and/or Wisler down longer? would they just suck this this year and hold onto Wisler for 2 more weeks to get two more years control? IIRC Folty's clock has started in some way, right?

I'm not sure to be honest, but I like the idea of having either Wisler or Folty on this team. My preference as of right now is Folty. But, I want to give Stults another start or two and see if we have anything because his last start looked really solid after he calmed down.

[Julio3000]

are there any contract/super 2/etc type issues that would make us keep Folty and/or Wisler down longer? would they just suck this this year and hold onto Wisler for 2 more weeks to get two more years control? IIRC Folty's clock has started in some way, right?

His arb clock started last year.

I'm in no hurry to see him starting in the majors anytime soon, though.

[Russ2dollas]

His arb clock started last year.

I'm in no hurry to see him starting in the majors anytime soon, though.

why....I'm worried b/c I think the FB is fast but flat. He seems to get hit a lot. He needed to work on pace and secondary stuff. I'd rather he do that.

If this keeps up put Cody Martin in rotation and find some more bp arms on the farm IMO.

[keithlaw]

Stealing a walk from Frenchy is like stealing a sale from Gil Gunderson

[chop2chip]

9 k's through 5 innings for Folty and he hasn't given up a hit since the first few innings.

[Garmel]

Bethancourt deserved that flare hit after all of the hard hits for outs that he's had.

[Tapate50]

9 k's through 5 innings for Folty and he hasn't given up a hit since the first few innings.

New pitch seems to have given him a boost.

[chop2chip]

New pitch seems to have given him a boost.If he can throw a power slider with his already plus curveball with a change up, then he's got all the stuff in the world to be an ace. The control is still an issue.

[Julio3000]

If he can throw a power slider with his already plus curveball with a change up, then he's got all the stuff in the world to be an ace. The control is still an issue.

Are they adding a hard slider or replacing his current breaking pitch?

[nsacpi]

Cahill looking good.

[chop2chip]

Are they adding a hard slider or replacing his current breaking pitch?
He threw a hard slider in his last start for the first time ever. I don't know if that means he isn't throwing his curveball anymore, but since it was considered a plus pitch that flashed plus plus, I doubt he would scrap it altogether.

[UNCBlue012]

If he can throw a power slider with his already plus curveball with a change up, then he's got all the stuff in the world to be an ace. The control is still an issue.

Completely. I'd absolutely love the rotation if he could pan out to be the guy we all hope. Teheran, Wood, Miller, Wisler, Folty or Teheran, Wood, Miller, Martin, Folty sounds pretty amazing for next year.

[Julio3000]

Cahill looking good.

I'm impressed with his last couple of frames. Giant baby steps.

[Tapate50]

Simmons swinging a hot bat, he is just hitting em right at guys....still. This is probably the best he has looked...ever?

[Julio3000]

Simmons swinging a hot bat, he is just hitting em right at guys....still. This is probably the best he has looked...ever?

I think so.

[nsacpi]

Excellent body language

[Tapate50]

I think so.

You had to think someone with that great hand eye coordination would put it together at some point.

[nsacpi]

Completely. I'd absolutely love the rotation if he could pan out to be the guy we all hope. Teheran, Wood, Miller, Wisler, Folty or Teheran, Wood, Miller, Martin, Folty sounds pretty amazing for next year.

Don't forget Shults.

[Garmel]

Don't forget Shults.

I wish we could.

[keithlaw]

You had to think someone with that great hand eye coordination would put it together at some point.

Man if he can put up a 290/340/440 line he's a legit MVP candidate

[chop2chip]

The Braves are pounding the ball today. Really hard to believe we only have 3 runs.

[Tapate50]

Those were some nice breaking balls to Fredi Galvis until Galvis went down and got that one

[UNCBlue012]

Those were some nice breaking balls to Fredi Galvis until Galvis went down and got that one

He's got the stuff. If he could get his head right, he could be awesome. COULD.

[UNCBlue012]

Then that happens. Come on man, it's the Phillies. They're god-awful.

[Tapate50]

He's got the stuff. If he could get his head right, he could be awesome. COULD.

Those last two hits were just examples of great hitting , not that Cahill was pitching that poorly

[USMA76]

Then that happens. Come on man, it's the Phillies. They're god-awful.

Sadly, so are we.

[UNCBlue012]

I'm happy to see Freddie doing work today, though.

[UNCBlue012]

Great damage control. Way better than the last outing.

[thewupk]

Man if he can put up a 290/340/440 line he's a legit MVP candidate

His defensive WAR is too high to be a MVP candidate

[sturg33]

I thought about who we've played this year and realized we haven't faced one legit good pitcher yet...

[thethe]

Everything is on the ground with Cahil. He is going to be a really good pitcher. This is basically still Spring Training for him.

[thethe]

I thought about who we've played this year and realized we haven't faced one legit good pitcher yet...

Yeah, the offense is going to struggle against good pitching. There just aren't many good hitters in the lineup.

[nsacpi]

Cahill has been impressive since the first inning.

[thewupk]

Everything is on the ground with Cahil. He is going to be a really good pitcher. This is basically still Spring Training for him.

lol

[nsacpi]

I thought about who we've played this year and realized we haven't faced one legit good pitcher yet...

This team is designed to feast on good pitchers.

[thethe]

Why are we pinch hitting here? We need innings out of the starting pitcher. Stop that crap Freddi.

[thethe]

lol

Just remember this. Cahil will be solid middle of the rotation starter at the very least. His control is just erratic right now but he is still generating a ton of ground balls.

[Dalyn]

Just remember this. Cahil will be solid middle of the rotation starter at the very least. His control is just erratic right now but he is still generating a ton of ground balls.

Okay. What about Cahill?

[dak]

Why are we pinch hitting here? We need innings out of the starting pitcher. Stop that crap Freddi.

I think it's the right play to PH here, I just wish it wasn't Gosselin. We're trailing in the 7th. It's customary to PH to lead off the inning in that spot.

[thewupk]

Just remember this. Cahil will be solid middle of the rotation starter at the very least. His control is just erratic right now but he is still generating a ton of ground balls.

I have high doubts about this

[thethe]

I think it's the right play to PH here, I just wish it wasn't Gosselin. We're trailing in the 7th. It's customary to PH to lead off the inning in that spot.

I think over the course of the a season a day off for the pen is more valueable than one AB.

[thethe]

I have high doubts about this

Fair enough. The results are bad right now but the predictors to me are solid. Basically all the damage was one swing. Thats going to happen.

[UNCBlue012]

Freddie should probably start hitting with RISP. I feel like it's kind of his job.

[thethe]

Freddie should probably start hitting with RISP. I feel like it's kind of his job.

For the most part Freddie has not been good this season. The offense would be encouraging if he were producing like we know he can.

[thewupk]

Fair enough. The results are bad right now but the predictors to me are solid. Basically all the damage was one swing. Thats going to happen.

It will happen a lot when you have crappy control

[Dalyn]

Freddie should probably start hitting with RISP. I feel like it's kind of his job.

.222 .364 .333 coming into today. What more do you want?

[thewupk]

Freddie should probably start hitting with RISP. I feel like it's kind of his job.

Yeah he needs to step it up. Since hitting with RISP is a skill that can be repeated I see no reason why he is struggling.

[jsebe10]

It will happen a lot when you have crappy control

Era well over 9...

About to be 0-3

Making $5.5m this year

Horrible with no inclination that he is getting better. No matter how many groundballs he generates. The Phillies are awful and shouldn't be scoring 4 runs on anyone

[UNCBlue012]

Yeah he needs to step it up. Since hitting with RISP is a skill that can be repeated I see no reason why he is struggling.

I see a guy pouting. I could be wrong. But, I don't see him busting his ass every day to play good defense, get timely hits and flash a smile to be a leader. He could be doing that, I don't see it and the facts don't state it. Frustrating.

[Russ2dollas]

Era well over 9...

About to be 0-3

Making $5.5m this year

Horrible with no inclination that he is getting better. No matter how many groundballs he generates. The Phillies are awful and shouldn't be scoring 4 runs on anyone

they wanted that pick. They want a stupid amount of bonus pool money. I am interested to see what they do. I don't think it's pick the best guy you can each pick. I think they want to be able to go way over slot.

[jsebe10]

Shreve would have been money here.

[Russ2dollas]

lose 5/6 to Mets and Phils....that is bad. Don't care what the Mets' record is, they are not that good. Really bad.

[jsebe10]

lol God.

[sturg33]

These games remind me when thethe was posting the first week of the season with "where are all the people who said we wouldn't be good?"

[thewupk]

lose 5/6 to Mets and Phils....that is bad. Don't care what the Mets' record is, they are not that good. Really bad.

I think the 5-0 start may have filled some peoples heads with an illusion that the Braves arent horrible. They will be just as bad as the Phillies by years end.

[sturg33]

I think the 5-0 start may have filled some peoples heads with an illusion that the Braves arent horrible. They will be just as bad as the Phillies by years end.

Also haven't faced any good pitching yet

Managed to miss Harvey/DeGrom twice, and Hammels this series

[thewupk]

I wonder if Freeman even loves baseball

[jsebe10]

I think the 5-0 start may have filled some peoples heads with an illusion that the Braves arent horrible. They will be just as bad as the Phillies by years end.

I think they might be there already.

[Dalyn]

I think the 5-0 start may have filled some peoples heads with an illusion that the Braves arent horrible. They will be just as bad as the Phillies by years end.

Especially now that Teheran looks like he is a start or two away from surgery.

[jsebe10]

Also haven't faced any good pitching yet

Managed to miss Harvey/DeGrom twice, and Hammels this series

Harvey, DeGromm, Scherzer, Kershaw will DESTROY this lineup.

[thewupk]

Also haven't faced any good pitching yet

Managed to miss Harvey/DeGrom twice, and Hammels this series

Yeah. It's going to be a long season.

[jsebe10]

Good AB Johnny.

9 for 36 now

[nsacpi]

Nice AB by Peterson.

[USMA76]

Tell me again why we called up a reliever with an ERA of four and a half (and has trouble throwing strikes) from Triple A?

[thethe]

These games remind me when thethe was posting the first week of the season with "where are all the people who said we wouldn't be good?"

Don't re-write history. I said where are those people when they said we would all be horrible which we are not.

[thethe]

Especially now that Teheran looks like he is a start or two away from surgery.

Thats the real issue. Teheran has pitched poorly the last two starts.

[weso1]

Good to see Peterson have a good day. Really feel like everyday it is important for that guy to do something good so that he can stick in there before hopefully, he gets hot.

[Garmel]

Tell me again why we called up a reliever with an ERA of four and a half (and has trouble throwing strikes) from Triple A?

Because we're running out of people to pick from. We've lost so many relievers due to injuries and PED issues.

[sturg33]

Don't re-write history. I said where are those people when they said we would all be horrible which we are not.

lol ok big difference

[thethe]

lol ok big difference

Yeah, thats actually a HUGE difference.

[weso1]

Freddie's boot comes back to bite.

[Braves1976]

Good to see Peterson have a good day. Really feel like everyday it is important for that guy to do something good so that he can stick in there before hopefully, he gets hot.

I skipped most of today's game but good to know Peterson had a good day. I'll watch the replay later.

[Dalyn]

Good to see Peterson have a good day. Really feel like everyday it is important for that guy to do something good so that he can stick in there before hopefully, he gets hot.

Yep. Sucks, but that's the truth.

[thethe]

The only explanation for that Freddie quote has to be because he had a meeting with the big whigs.

[UNCBlue012]

Well, Freddie looks of cost us this one.

[Braves1976]

That was a foul tip, Markakis didn't strike out!

[thethe]

I love it when Simmons isn't taking a big swing.

[UNCBlue012]

Redeem yourself Freddie.

[UNCBlue012]

I love it when Simmons isn't taking a big swing.

Such a sweet swing.

[Garmel]

That was a foul tip, Markakis didn't strike out!

Yeah, we got screwed

[jsebe10]

KJ will choke

[keithlaw]

lol

[The Chosen One]

Well ****.

[thethe]

WOW, you have to be kidding me. Damn, so close.

[Garmel]

KJ just missed it.

[weso1]

Well son of a... I thought he had that one.

[Garmel]

WOW, you have to be kidding me. Damn, so close.

So many hard hit balls today that didn't go our way.

[Braves1976]

That miss call on Markakis proved huge, esp. given Markakis numbers vs him. He foul tipped that ball and it was trapped and not caught. Oh well.

[UNCBlue012]

This is getting old. Losing is fine, not whenever our two loses this series came from our "most important" player being not doing his job.

Good game and I thought that Cahill solid job battling.

This year is a wash of some sorts, but this needs to change. We played the garbage of the garbage. Play like they are.

[jsebe10]

Sigh..,

Another one we should have won.

[Braves1976]

KJ just missed it.

Yea, KJ hit it hard but too much a line drive shot to get out.

[UNCBlue012]

We've hit so many balls hard though! It's frustrating. This team could have a large streak if things go their way.

[thethe]

This is getting old. Losing is fine, not whenever our two loses this series came from our "most important" player being not doing his job.

Good game and I thought that Cahill solid job battling.

This year is a wash of some sorts, but this needs to change. We played the garbage of the garbage. Play like they are.

All about taking positives out of this season and hopefully getting a piece or two from trades at the deadline.

[jsebe10]

That miss call on Markakis proved huge, esp. given Markakis numbers vs him. He foul tipped that ball and it was trapped and not caught. Oh well.

Guess what will happen to the umpire for blowing that call? NOTHING

Players don't do their jobs they get dealt with. Umpires get a pat on the back and get to hide behind the "human element" factor

[sturg33]

This is getting old. Losing is fine, not whenever our two loses this series came from our "most important" player being not doing his job.

Good game and I thought that Cahill solid job battling.

This year is a wash of some sorts, but this needs to change. We played the garbage of the garbage. Play like they are.

So you're mad at Freeman, who had 2 doubles and a walk... but not mad at Cahill, who gave up 4 runs in 6 innings to arguably the worst team in the majors.

OK then

[sturg33]

All about taking positives out of this season and hopefully getting a piece or two from trades at the deadline.


A piece or two? I think you mean top 50 prospects

[sturg33]

Yeah, thats actually a HUGE difference.

What - did you think we thought we would never win a couple games?

[Garmel]

What - did you think we thought we would never win a couple games?

You're 25, Sturge. I swear you're more argumentative than my 80 year old parents.

[Braves1976]

Guess what will happen to the umpire for blowing that call? NOTHING

Players don't do their jobs they get dealt with. Umpires get a pat on the back and get to hide behind the "human element" factor

What makes matters worse is that our dumb ass manager defended the umpire in his press conference and even said it wasn't clear on replay. I really cannot stand him!

[thewupk]

You're 25, Sturge. I swear you're more argumentative than my 80 year old parents.

He's right though. We are horrible and 4-9 since the miracle start. That's a 50 win pace.

[thethe]

You're 25, Sturge. I swear you're more argumentative than my 80 year old parents.

Guy is a smart/successful guy and he acts like a little child sometimes.

[keithlaw]

He's right though. We are horrible and 4-9 since the miracle start. That's a 50 win pace.

Ignoring the games we've won, we're 0-9. Thats a 0 win pace

[AerchAngel]

Not much you can complain about hitting. Some of those balls we hit should have left the yard, especially the last one. They hit the ball well today and we still lost because of defense, DEFENSE.

[NinersSBChamps]

So people still get emotional over these games? Just accept the team stinks and things are easier.

[thewupk]

Ignoring the games we've won, we're 0-9. Thats a 0 win pace

I feel the 4-9 record out of the last 13 is real close to the true talent of this team as constructed. We will lose 100 games.

[Braves1976]

I feel the 4-9 record out of the last 13 is real close to the true talent of this team as constructed. We will lose 100 games.

I want to lose how ever many and in whatever ways it takes to get that moron Fredi fired. I am not sure I can take another year of him. Plus if we're going to lose anyway I'd prefer to tank and get a top five draft pick.

[sturg33]

Guy is a smart/successful guy and he acts like a little child sometimes.

Well that's not very nice.

When you go parading about wrong people are after 5 games, expect that to be brought back up again.

Also - your top 50 prospect line will live on forever, so I do thank you for that one

[thewupk]

I want to lose how ever many and in whatever ways it takes to get that moron Fredi fired. I am not sure I can take another year of him. Plus if we're going to lose anyway I'd prefer to tank and get a top five draft pick.

Hopefully we hit on it like we did Heyward.

[Millwood1Hitter]

So people still get emotional over these games? Just accept the team stinks and things are easier.

Exactly!

Fire Fredi and find our "next" Chipper Jones and were on our way.

Maybe that's why Hart went after Jim Johnson and some of the other hot crap that is on the roster like Callaspo, Cahill, Jaime, and all those other crispy relievers. Even if we play well and have a lead Fredi will still go with some piece of garbage to blow the lead. The starting staff is good so put arguably one of the worst starters in to.

Just hope the plan won't be 1 year to late and guys like Tehran will be toast and youngsters like Peterson confidence will be shook.

Wishful thinking though, as I believe, this organization backs Fredi 100% and the only way he gets fired is if an investigation takes place and he indeed is a disguised Hitler.

[Russ2dollas]

I want to lose how ever many and in whatever ways it takes to get that moron Fredi fired. I am not sure I can take another year of him. Plus if we're going to lose anyway I'd prefer to tank and get a top five draft pick.

I don't get this. Who is the guy in the top 5 that is worth tanking for in this draft? I'm sure someone has the stats, but what is the difference in hit % for top 10, vs top 20?

If we had a chance at a Rodon type, I get it. I just don't see that guy. If there was some stud, right hand hitting, power hitter, RF, with range and cannon, from college who could be up in a year........Nobody like that.

[nsacpi]

I don't get this. Who is the guy in the top 5 that is worth tanking for in this draft? I'm sure someone has the stats, but what is the difference in hit % for top 10, vs top 20?

If we had a chance at a Rodon type, I get it. I just don't see that guy. If there was some stud, right hand hitting, power hitter, RF, with range and cannon, from college who could be up in a year........Nobody like that.

I looked at this for the players drafted from 2000-2005 (6 drafts). In terms of surplus value (dollar value of WAR produced minus salary during the pre-free agency years), the data for players taken from those indicates that a #5 pick is about 25% more valuable than a #10. And a #10 pick is about 25% more valuable than a #20 pick.

About half the players taken around #5 go on to significant major league careers. About a third of those taken at about #10 go to significant careers and about a fifth of those taken around #20 do.

I'm always surprised by the washout rate for draftees and highly rated prospects when I take a look at the numbers. But this is not to say that those picks are not valuable. They are. We would all pay a lot for a lottery ticket with a 20% chance of success.

[Russ2dollas]

I looked at this for the players drafted from 2000-2005 (6 drafts). In terms of surplus value (dollar value of WAR produced minus salary during the pre-free agency years), the data for players taken from those indicates that a #5 pick is about 25% more valuable than a #10. And a #10 pick is about 25% more valuable than a #20 pick.

About half the players taken around #5 go on to significant major league careers. About a third of those taken at about #10 go to significant careers and about a fifth of those taken around #20 do.

I'm always surprised by the washout rate for draftees and highly rated prospects when I take a look at the numbers. But this is not to say that those picks are not valuable. They are. We would all pay a lot for a lottery ticket with a 20% chance of success.

that is interesting. Some value to being higher (obvious) but it's not overwhelming. And that data is strait data. Some years you had a Strausberg that everyone knew was going to be a big league pitcher. You had Bryce Harper. What about a year like this year where that guy does not exist?

I think the Braves are up to something. That Cahill trade was about getting more slot money. I think there must be some HS kids they love that they think are hard signs. I think they'll look to go way over slot in some rounds. Maybe go cheap on some picks to go way over on others.

[Dalyn]

I looked at this for the players drafted from 2000-2005 (6 drafts). In terms of surplus value (dollar value of WAR produced minus salary during the pre-free agency years), the data for players taken from those indicates that a #5 pick is about 25% more valuable than a #10. And a #10 pick is about 25% more valuable than a #20 pick.

About half the players taken around #5 go on to significant major league careers. About a third of those taken at about #10 go to significant careers and about a fifth of those taken around #20 do.

I'm always surprised by the washout rate for draftees and highly rated prospects when I take a look at the numbers. But this is not to say that those picks are not valuable. They are. We would all pay a lot for a lottery ticket with a 20% chance of success.

This reminds me of my Mukaki Rebuild discussion involving the draft. Interesting.

[nsacpi]

that is interesting. Some value to being higher (obvious) but it's not overwhelming. And that data is strait data. Some years you had a Strausberg that everyone knew was going to be a big league pitcher. You had Bryce Harper. What about a year like this year where that guy does not exist?

I think the Braves are up to something. That Cahill trade was about getting more slot money. I think there must be some HS kids they love that they think are hard signs. I think they'll look to go way over slot in some rounds. Maybe go cheap on some picks to go way over on others.

From what I've read on BA this looks like a below-average draft. We have stockpiled picks, so maybe the Braves have a different view of this year's crop.

[Russ2dollas]

From what I've read on BA this looks like a below-average draft. We have stockpiled picks, so maybe the Braves have a different view of this year's crop.

That's why I'm saying they are up to something. I don't think it's just take the best player available at each pick. I think they have a handful of guys and they want to have the money to get those guys. So I don't think it has to do with pick number at all, I think they want enough picks to have the pool to grab and go over slot.

[chop2chip]

From what I've read on BA this looks like a below-average draft. We have stockpiled picks, so maybe the Braves have a different view of this year's crop.

This year's draft it's considered below average, but the 2016 is considered to be pretty good. Kiley McDaniel says there are 5 guys that are legit 1-1 guys so if we can somehow be in that range then we have a chance to get our next Heyward.

[thethe]

I have listened to podcasts that state that typically after hte first 15 players every single MLB draft is the same. Some years you have a Kris Bryant or a Bryce Harper and others you don't but typically the depth is always there.

[50PoundHead]

From what I've read on BA this looks like a below-average draft. We have stockpiled picks, so maybe the Braves have a different view of this year's crop.

It may be a below-average draft crop, but I always marvel as to how most every draft produces the same number of players who end up being starters/contributors. I think star power is what differentiates drafts in the eyes of the scouts.

[nsacpi]

For the six drafts I studied, there was a fair amount of variance in the number of productive major league players produced. I defined a productive player as one who generated total WAR of 5 or higher in their pre-free agency period.

Here are the number of players who met that standard (out of the first 60 taken) in each draft:

2000 7
2001 8
2002 16
2003 12
2004 13
2005 11

So in the best draft (2002) you had twice as good a chance of finding a productive player than the weakest draft (2000).

[50PoundHead]

For the six drafts I studied, there was a fair amount of variance in the number of productive major league players produced. I defined a productive player as one who generated total WAR of 5 or higher in their pre-free agency period.

Here are the number of players who met that standard (out of the first 60 taken) in each draft:

2000 7
2001 8
2002 16
2003 12
2004 13
2005 11

So in the best draft (2002) you had twice as good a chance of finding a productive player than the weakest draft (2000).

I think 5 WAR puts you in star territory. That's a little different than simply being an above average contributor, which I should have referenced that I was looking at. Plus, it's a relatively small number of players (a nine-player difference) that constitute the difference. I don't know what the Braves will do this draft, but my guess is they will look for some ceiling, which entails larger bonuses and larger risks. I don't know how I feel about that. We do have the pool money to do some dramatic things, both in the draft and internationally.

[nsacpi]

Total WAR not per year is what my cutoff was.
I think 5 WAR puts you in star territory. That's a little different than simply being an above average contributor, which I should have referenced that I was looking at. Plus, it's a relatively small number of players (a nine-player difference) that constitute the difference. I don't know what the Braves will do this draft, but my guess is they will look for some ceiling, which entails larger bonuses and larger risks. I don't know how I feel about that. We do have the pool money to do some dramatic things, both in the draft and internationally.

[chop2chip]

For the six drafts I studied, there was a fair amount of variance in the number of productive major league players produced. I defined a productive player as one who generated total WAR of 5 or higher in their pre-free agency period.

Here are the number of players who met that standard (out of the first 60 taken) in each draft:

2000 7
2001 8
2002 16
2003 12
2004 13
2005 11

So in the best draft (2002) you had twice as good a chance of finding a productive player than the weakest draft (2000).
Not a bad idea, but that sample size is way way way too small to draw any sort of conclusion from.

For example, if you choose to not include 2000-2002 and just looked at the last three years you would have seen no discrepancies. If you include the previous 3 years alone you would have concluded the exact opposite.

I tend to side with the idea that not all drafts class outcomes are created equal. Sure you might have a similar amount of players make the big leagues, but that doesn't necessarily control for quality.

Now that's not the same as saying that we are able to accurately predict the quality of drafts. This may just be a very deep class, but those forecasting simply weren't watching the right players at the right time. So to that point I would agree with Thethe and 50 that an incoming draft class is a draft class is a draft class.

[50PoundHead]

To do a comprehensive analysis, I think you'd have to look at the nature of each pick and the incidence of injuries in any draft year. If you're looking at 60 players, one knee injury and a blown arm greatly skews that percentages.

I think chop2chip said more directly what I was trying to say. It is more difficult now under the new rules with pool limitations, but prior to that, there were a lot of guys picked after their "talent" ranking due to signability issues. That's not to say that those highly-heralded late signees were locks for stardom (calling Lars Andersen), but I think the draft was more fluid prior to the new rules.

[Russ2dollas]

It may be a below-average draft crop, but I always marvel as to how most every draft produces the same number of players who end up being starters/contributors. I think star power is what differentiates drafts in the eyes of the scouts.

if you draft a ton of guys you'll hit and miss.

The question seems to be how many Kris Bryant, Strausberg, Rodon.....guys that everyone believes will be good and be good early. Drafting a HS kid and waiting 5 years is tough.

My original point is that if you aren't a top 3 pick or so.....I'm not sure that the losing gets you the reward.

[50PoundHead]

Speaking of the draft, Mac Marshall hadn't pitched in over a month since a one-inning stint in mid-March, but he did pitch three scoreless innings on Friday. Anyone down Chipola way know what occasioned the one-month hiatus. I'm guessing injury, but curious about type/severity.

[nsacpi]

My original point is that if you aren't a top 3 pick or so.....I'm not sure that the losing gets you the reward.

Even top picks sometimes don't make it. But in general there is a benefit from having a higher pick. The fact that there is uncertainty and variability doesn't contradict that.

[Russ2dollas]

Even top picks sometimes don't make it. But in general there is a benefit from having a higher pick. The fact that there is uncertainty and variability doesn't contradict that.

That is true.....the question for me is if a top 5 pick is worth having a top 5 pick season. For me it's not. If we could play good baseball, be around 500, and get a top 5 pick........Great. But it's not working that way.

I just don't think the reward is there to tank in MLB, especially this year. Obviously I'd like to have the top pick in every round.

[nsacpi]

To answer that question i think you would have to look at the effects of losing on revenues. Losing an extra ten games might move you up three spots in the draft, but what happens to attendance.
That is true.....the question for me is if a top 5 pick is worth having a top 5 pick season. For me it's not. If we could play good baseball, be around 500, and get a top 5 pick........Great. But it's not working that way.

I just don't think the reward is there to tank in MLB, especially this year. Obviously I'd like to have the top pick in every round.

[chop2chip]

To answer that question i think you would have to look at the effects of losing on revenues. Losing an extra ten games might move you up three spots in the draft, but what happens to attendance.
This is a very good and often forgotten point.

[50PoundHead]

That is true.....the question for me is if a top 5 pick is worth having a top 5 pick season. For me it's not. If we could play good baseball, be around 500, and get a top 5 pick........Great. But it's not working that way.

I just don't think the reward is there to tank in MLB, especially this year. Obviously I'd like to have the top pick in every round.

I agree it's not as cut-and-dried as the football draft, which is more exact than the baseball draft without being all that exact. You scout, you sign your priorities, and you hope you've guessed right on their development arcs.

[thewupk]

To answer that question i think you would have to look at the effects of losing on revenues. Losing an extra ten games might move you up three spots in the draft, but what happens to attendance.

I doubt they care much about attendance this year or next. It will never get Marlins bad and even if attendance was better by winning those 10 extra games it would just fill up Libertys pockets. It's all about the build up to 2017. Winning more this year doesn't help in anyway but potentially make Liberty richer.

[Russ2dollas]

I agree it's not as cut-and-dried as the football draft, which is more exact than the baseball draft without being all that exact. You scout, you sign your priorities, and you hope you've guessed right on their development arcs.

And in football those guys are expected to play. Even late round guys have a role if they make the team.

Baseball is drafting a guy you hope to use in 3-5 years. Drafting them in a time of life where they get a ton of changes to body and skill level.

MLB is more like the NBA draft pre age limit. And we have an age limit b/c the NBA folks figured they couldn't help themselves. Kept drafting 18 y/o with tools and having them amount to nothing. That's what we do. But if you want to be highly rated by Keith Law you need to draft high ceiling guys. It's what we did this summer. Law has us ranked higher than anyone else b/c of the ceiling on all of the guys we got. Problem is the probability is really low on most of them.

MLB draft is like an entire first round of 18 y/o foreign players in the NBA.

[nsacpi]

I doubt they care much about attendance this year or next. It will never get Marlins bad and even if attendance was better by winning those 10 extra games it would just fill up Libertys pockets. It's all about the build up to 2017. Winning more this year doesn't help in anyway but potentially make Liberty richer.

I think a company like Liberty pays very careful attention to the bottom line, no matter what year.

[thewupk]

I think a company like Liberty pays very careful attention to the bottom line, no matter what year.

Liberty might but the Braves front office doesn't. Besides I doubt very much that a 10 game difference in wins means very much right now in terms of attendnace. The outlook this year was very bleak to start the year and nothing has changed. It's not going to be a good team and most everybody knows this. The people that go to the games this year will be the people that just love going to baseball, hardcore fans, something to do on a given night/weekend. Not the fical fans that are drawn in by winning baseball.

[nsacpi]

Liberty might but the Braves front office doesn't. Besides I doubt very much that a 10 game difference in wins means very much right now in terms of attendnace. The outlook this year was very bleak to start the year and nothing has changed. It's not going to be a good team and most everybody knows this. The people that go to the games this year will be the people that just love going to baseball, hardcore fans, something to do on a given night/weekend. Not the fical fans that are drawn in by winning baseball.

I think they have an estimate of what attendance is going to be. And I'm also convinced if reality deviates from that estimate by a significant amount it will affect payroll going forward. Various reasons have been given for Wren's removal as GM. But I think the fact that payroll went one direction and attendance went a different direction in 2014 played a role.

[thethe]

I think for the most part Liberty wants to see the attendence trend moving in the right direction going into Cobb County.