5/5/15 MINOR LEAGUE THREAD: Hot Peraza!

[rico43]

TUESDAY’S GAMES

ALL TIMES EDT

CLASS AAA

Gwinnett 3, Scranton/WB 1

WP: Wisler (1-3) 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K.
Cornely (Save, 1) 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K.
Cunningham 2-3, 2B, 2 R, SB; Peraza 3-4, 3B, 2 SB (.323); Benson 2-4, 2 RBI.

CLASS AA

Mississippi (11-12), idle

ADVANCED CLASS A

Carolina 4, Lynchburg 1

WP: Thurman (3-2) 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K.
Cabrera 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K.
Otero (Save 1) 1 P, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K.
Meneses 1-3; Lien 2-3, 2 2B, R, 2 RBI; Camargo 1-3, 2B, 2 RBI.

CLASS A

Rome (11-13), idle


NOTES
Willams Perez (1.33 ERA) 2nd in IL. Folty still 3rd in strikeouts (30 in 22 IP)
Aaron Kurcz (5 saves) one off league lead
Ryan Weber (1.45) 4th in SL ERA.
RYan Kelly (6 saves) tied for SL lead.
Steve Janas (3-0, 0.72) leads Carolina League in ERA.
Tyler Jones (5 saves) one off league lead
Sean Furney (3-1) one off SAL league wins lead
**Not much doubt that Janas (a Marietta native drafted out of Kennesaw in 2013) is Pitcher of the Month for April (Perez a strong second)***

[50PoundHead]

Three of our four teams are below .500, but it's nice to see that we don't have any of our affiliates mired in total sucktitude the way Rome was last season.

[thethe]

Three of our four teams are below .500, but it's nice to see that we don't have any of our affiliates mired in total sucktitude the way Rome was last season.

As you said in yesterdays minor league thread, we are seeing a lot of encouraging offensive performances down on the farm and going into the year that was the biggest question mark.

Still no massive power guys but some that are projected to at least be in the 10-15 range.

[Russ2dollas]

BP article where Mallex Smith is the author's favorite fringe prospect for Braves........still thinking 4th OF
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26253

[Braves1976]

BP article where Mallex Smith is the author's favorite fringe prospect for Braves........still thinking 4th OF
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26253

Why it could work: “I like him. He can play really play center field, a 55 center fielder. He’s got a short stroke with plenty of barrel control. It’s a fourth-outfield type, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s up with Atlanta this season.” –Tucker Blair

Personally, I see starter potential in CF for Smith and I also don't see any reason to call him up this season.

[smootness]

Why it could work: “I like him. He can play really play center field, a 55 center fielder. He’s got a short stroke with plenty of barrel control. It’s a fourth-outfield type, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s up with Atlanta this season.” –Tucker Blair

Personally, I see starter potential in CF for Smith and I also don't see any reason to call him up this season.

I agree. It will all hinge on his OBP. If he can OBP at .350 or better in the majors, with elite speed and above-average CF defense, he isn't a 4th OF.

[cajunrevenge]

With his speed he really just needs about a .330 OBP to be a starter in center. With quality defense the threshold for being a starter is very low. Especially for the Braves. So far we have got .189/.279/.360 from CF this year which is pretty much what we got the last 2 years. Mallex shouldnt have a problem beating that kind of performance.

[Jay212033]

I hate to jinx him but Peraza is killing it! Already 3-3, 3B, 2 SB in the 5th inning!

[nsacpi]

Peraza is an elite prospect. Will be in the Top 20 in the mid-season lists.

[smootness]

Peraza has figured out AAA. Time to call him up whenever it makes sense, probably June.

[skillet]

Peraza has figured out AAA. Time to call him up whenever it makes sense, probably June.

Not until he can't reach super 2, sometime in June just not exactly sure which day.

[Jay212033]

Well I officially jinxed him smh!

[atl717]

Peraza is an elite prospect. Will be in the Top 20 in the mid-season lists.

No. Does not have the upside to warrant that. Good player.

[thethe]

No. Does not have the upside to warrant that. Good player.

SHocker that you are negative on him. Peraza is absolutely an elite prospect.

[rico43]

Thurman, the "other" pitcher in the Gattis trade, pitches shutout ball and earns his third win. Nice ninth by Otero for the save.

Otero, lest we forget, was the sensation of the 2009 short season , the little (5-9) lefty going 6-1, 0.84 with 93 Ks in 64 IP for the DSL at age 17. But he did not pitch in 2010, worked only 11 innings in 2011, 3 innings in 2012, and 32 innings in 2013. But he got 4 wins and 4 saves for a horrid Rome team last year and .... wait for it .... he's still only 22 years old.

[clvclv]

SHocker that you are negative on him. Peraza is absolutely an elite prospect.

Don't know that he'll necessarily fit into the Top 20, but that A.) doesn't particularly matter, and B.) certainly doesn't keep him from being considered "elite". Will be tough for him to crack the Top 20, but who really cares?


Preseason MLB Pipeline Rankings:

1.) Buxton
2.) Bryant (Promoted)
3.) Correa
4.) Lindor
5.) Russell (Promoted)
6.) Giolito
7.) Seager
8.) Julio Urias
9.) Moncada
10.) Gallo
11.) Syndergaard
12.) Miguel Sano
13.) Tyler Glasnow
14.) Pederson (Promoted)
15.) Rodon (Promoted)
16.) Archie Bradley (Promoted)
17.) Jon Gray
18.) Daniel Norris (Promoted)
19.) Swihart (Promoted)
20.) Henry Owens

That's 7 promotions so far with Correa, Lindor, and Seager beating down the door. Alex Meyer and Eddie Butler have also been promoted, so Peraza would have to jump 9 guys if Correa, Lindor, and Seager aren't promoted, plus there are several guys ranked below Jose who've also had pretty impressive starts as well - Jorge Alfaro, Kyle Schwarber, Maikel Franco, Steven Matz, Eduardo Rodriguez, Rafael Devers, Manuel Margot, and a few others.

He might not crack the Top 20 in part because there are just too many names to jump AND because he may well get promoted before those new lists come out, but that certainly shouldn't stop him from being considered "elite" right now.

[clvclv]

Thurman, the "other" pitcher in the Gattis trade, pitches shutout ball and earns his third win. Nice ninth by Otero for the save.

Otero, lest we forget, was the sensation of the 2009 short season , the little (5-9) lefty going 6-1, 0.84 with 93 Ks in 64 IP for the DSL at age 17. But he did not pitch in 2010, worked only 11 innings in 2011, 3 innings in 2012, and 32 innings in 2013. But he got 4 wins and 4 saves for a horrid Rome team last year and .... wait for it .... he's still only 22 years old.

Probably also worth pointing out that Thurman's effort came against a pretty loaded lineup of Indians' prospects - including Top 100 guys in Clint Frazier and Bradley Zimmer plus Mike Papi.

Have been on Otero (and mentioned keeping an eye on him fairly often) for a long time. Mauricio Cabrera had a good outing as well and his ERA now sits at 2.08 with a .182 BAA. If he can clean up the walks a little bit, we should see him climb the ladder pretty quickly (although I'd like to see him start to be used to close games fairly soon).

[thethe]

Minors are real healthy this year.

[Russ2dollas]

Probably also worth pointing out that Thurman's effort came against a pretty loaded lineup of Indians' prospects - including Top 100 guys in Clint Frazier and Bradley Zimmer plus Mike Papi.

Have been on Otero (and mentioned keeping an eye on him fairly often) for a long time. Mauricio Cabrera had a good outing as well and his ERA now sits at 2.08 with a .182 BAA. If he can clean up the walks a little bit, we should see him climb the ladder pretty quickly (although I'd like to see him start to be used to close games fairly soon).

Thurman by all accounts is going to be a valuable piece. I thought the breakdown on him is that he doesn't have any elite stuff. But most think he's going to be a cheap and effective 4 or 5 with 6 years of control. That is a very valuable piece.

[Russ2dollas]

my issue with Peraza is the lack of doubles and the lack of walks. He's going to have to be Ichiro in terms of OBP to live up to the prospect hype, and that is a A Lot of singles.

I am excited about the INF defense of
Peterson
Simmons
Peraza

Ground balls to the left side should be an out. Peraza would really help out FF's range. Just let Fredi hug the line and scoop throws.

[thethe]

my issue with Peraza is the lack of doubles and the lack of walks. He's going to have to be Ichiro in terms of OBP to live up to the prospect hype, and that is a A Lot of singles.

I am excited about the INF defense of
Peterson
Simmons
Peraza

Ground balls to the left side should be an out. Peraza would really help out FF's range. Just let Fredi hug the line and scoop throws.

Peraza walk rate has spiked a bit this year. He is still in the early stages of learning and is showing great strides. Not sure if he will ever be a 35+ doubles hitter but if he can have an OBP north of 350 then he is going to be a big time impact player for us.

[clvclv]

my issue with Peraza is the lack of doubles and the lack of walks. He's going to have to be Ichiro in terms of OBP to live up to the prospect hype, and that is a A Lot of singles.

I am excited about the INF defense of
Peterson
Simmons
Peraza

Ground balls to the left side should be an out. Peraza would really help out FF's range. Just let Fredi hug the line and scoop throws.

I still cringe every time someone mentions this - that's where the "new math" falls short IMO. Statheads have certain criteria that they feel have to be met for a player to become an "impact" player, and that they have to reach certain total base levels to truly be an impact player. Ichiro's simply a bad comp for the vast majority of hitters in the history of the game.

Personally I look no further than Otis Nixon as a pretty good comp for Peraza. Career OBP of .343 with "only" 180 XBH. Of course that also comes with 878 runs and 620 SBs while playing elite defense in the middle of the diamond for 17 years. If Peraza provides that kind of production while "only hitting singles" (particularly at Otis' levels from 1990 until the end of his career), I'll find it AWFULLY tough for anyone to say he's not an impact player with a straight face.

Not a shot at you Russ - just think Otis is one of those players the "new math" highly undervalues to the point of almost discarding. He (and hopefully Peraza) is the type of player that scoutheads always scream that statheads aren't watching the games if they don't think he's an impact player about.

[JohnAdcox]

Peraza has figured out AAA. Time to call him up whenever it makes sense, probably June.

Couldn’t agree more. With Peraza, the Braves might easily finish third instead of fourth, which is worth losing a year of service time for any day.

[JohnAdcox]

I still cringe every time someone mentions this - that's where the "new math" falls short IMO. Statheads have certain criteria that they feel have to be met for a player to become an "impact" player, and that they have to reach certain total base levels to truly be an impact player. Ichiro's simply a bad comp for the vast majority of hitters in the history of the game.

Personally I look no further than Otis Nixon as a pretty good comp for Peraza. Career OBP of .343 with "only" 180 XBH. Of course that also comes with 878 runs and 620 SBs while playing elite defense in the middle of the diamond for 17 years. If Peraza provides that kind of production while "only hitting singles" (particularly at Otis' levels from 1990 until the end of his career), I'll find it AWFULLY tough for anyone to say he's not an impact player with a straight face.

Not a shot at you Russ - just think Otis is one of those players the "new math" highly undervalues to the point of almost discarding. He (and hopefully Peraza) is the type of player that scoutheads always scream that statheads aren't watching the games if they don't think he's an impact player about.

I think this exact point is why some seem to be undervaluing Smith, and hanging “fourth outfielder” labels on him.

[Russ2dollas]

I still cringe every time someone mentions this - that's where the "new math" falls short IMO. Statheads have certain criteria that they feel have to be met for a player to become an "impact" player, and that they have to reach certain total base levels to truly be an impact player. Ichiro's simply a bad comp for the vast majority of hitters in the history of the game.

Personally I look no further than Otis Nixon as a pretty good comp for Peraza. Career OBP of .343 with "only" 180 XBH. Of course that also comes with 878 runs and 620 SBs while playing elite defense in the middle of the diamond for 17 years. If Peraza provides that kind of production while "only hitting singles" (particularly at Otis' levels from 1990 until the end of his career), I'll find it AWFULLY tough for anyone to say he's not an impact player with a straight face.

Not a shot at you Russ - just think Otis is one of those players the "new math" highly undervalues to the point of almost discarding. He (and hopefully Peraza) is the type of player that scoutheads always scream that statheads aren't watching the games if they don't think he's an impact player about.

I don't think you're wrong. It's just that if you are a singles only hitter then it puts a lot more pressure on your batting avg. It's less margin for error. If you are Nixon, or Ichiro, then no worries. But it's tough to hit over 300. And if you are all singles and few walks then you are saying the kid has to have a career avg over 300 to be an impact guy. That's tough.

[JohnAdcox]

Thurman, the "other" pitcher in the Gattis trade, pitches shutout ball and earns his third win. Nice ninth by Otero for the save.

Otero, lest we forget, was the sensation of the 2009 short season , the little (5-9) lefty going 6-1, 0.84 with 93 Ks in 64 IP for the DSL at age 17. But he did not pitch in 2010, worked only 11 innings in 2011, 3 innings in 2012, and 32 innings in 2013. But he got 4 wins and 4 saves for a horrid Rome team last year and .... wait for it .... he's still only 22 years old.

I totally missed both of those. Thanks a million for pointing them out.

[JohnAdcox]

my issue with Peraza is the lack of doubles and the lack of walks. He's going to have to be Ichiro in terms of OBP to live up to the prospect hype, and that is a A Lot of singles.

I am excited about the INF defense of
Peterson
Simmons
Peraza

Ground balls to the left side should be an out. Peraza would really help out FF's range. Just let Fredi hug the line and scoop throws.

You’re not concerned about Peraza’s errors? Not an argument, just a question.

[Tapate50]

You’re not concerned about Peraza’s errors? Not an argument, just a question.

I have always heard to take errors in the minors with a grain of salt since they aren't playing on the best grass\infield. He has a good defensive reputation just not that Simmons type arm.

[thethe]

I have always heard to take errors in the minors with a grain of salt since they aren't playing on the best grass\infield. He has a good defensive reputation just not that Simmons type arm.

And I would think that he is still adjusting to 2B. Its only been about a year that he has played over there if I remember correctly.

[Russ2dollas]

I think this exact point is why some seem to be undervaluing Smith, and hanging “fourth outfielder” labels on him.

I was more surprised at the 55 CF....shouldn't be be better than that with all of that speed? Is it an arm issue?

[Russ2dollas]

Couldn’t agree more. With Peraza, the Braves might easily finish third instead of fourth, which is worth losing a year of service time for any day.

I think Peraza should play this year if you expect him to play most of next year. I would not call him up and lose a year. I'd wait until roster expansion if I had to.

[Russ2dollas]

You’re not concerned about Peraza’s errors? Not an argument, just a question.

No. Everyone that has watched him has said he's elite. He could be a very good defensive SS by all accounts so I think he can handle 2B.

Guys with range sometimes get more errors b/c they get to more stuff. I haven't watched him so I don't know where his errors are coming from, but scouts all seem to agree he can field.

[clvclv]

I don't think you're wrong. It's just that if you are a singles only hitter then it puts a lot more pressure on your batting avg. It's less margin for error. If you are Nixon, or Ichiro, then no worries. But it's tough to hit over 300. And if you are all singles and few walks then you are saying the kid has to have a career avg over 300 to be an impact guy. That's tough.

No question about that. There's still no reason not to think guys like Peraza and Mallex (as John notes) won't still be impact players even if they don't hit .300 though IMO. They won't necessarily have sexy numbers or make bunches of All-Star appearances, but their impact will be much greater on the lineup as a whole. I look at it much like those early 90's Braves' teams that had Nixon AND Deion at the top at times. If you've got 2 or 3 guys with speed and .340-ish OBPs at the top, Freeman suddenly becomes an absolute monster because there's almost always somebody on when he comes to the plate and (more often than not) he can drive them in with with singles and doubles because they're often standing at 2B (at least). If you sign a Justin or Cespedes so other teams can't pitch around Freddie there may be multiple MVP seasons in his future in that case.

I'd guess it's just that I'm more positive in believing that Peraza's career .307/.352 is a little misleading since it's actually been climbing every season as he moves up the ladder and sees better competition. I don't personally think he'll have any trouble delivering .300/.340 when he's facing Pitchers who around the plate even more.

[Russ2dollas]

No question about that. There's still no reason not to think guys like Peraza and Mallex (as John notes) won't still be impact players even if they don't hit .300 though IMO. They won't necessarily have sexy numbers or make bunches of All-Star appearances, but their impact will be much greater on the lineup as a whole. I look at it much like those early 90's Braves' teams that had Nixon AND Deion at the top at times. If you've got 2 or 3 guys with speed and .340-ish OBPs at the top, Freeman suddenly becomes an absolute monster because there's almost always somebody on when he comes to the plate and (more often than not) he can drive them in with with singles and doubles because they're often standing at 2B (at least). If you sign a Justin or Cespedes so other teams can't pitch around Freddie there may be multiple MVP seasons in his future in that case.

we don't disagree...it's about labels.

re: Smith, I agree that if he does that he's a useful player and not a 4th OF.

re: Peraza. I think the bar is higher. His rankings and what I read from scouts are talking about an All star player. I think everyone thinks that he'd be a positive WAR player now. But the bar is higher for him IMO.

re: FF. If you had two guys ahead of him that were consistently on second (high OBP and steals) then he could put up stupid RBI numbers. Or they could always walk him b/c he's protected by Gomes...

[clvclv]

we don't disagree...it's about labels.

re: Smith, I agree that if he does that he's a useful player and not a 4th OF.

re: Peraza. I think the bar is higher. His rankings and what I read from scouts are talking about an All star player. I think everyone thinks that he'd be a positive WAR player now. But the bar is higher for him IMO.

re: FF. If you had two guys ahead of him that were consistently on second (high OBP and steals) then he could put up stupid RBI numbers. Or they could always walk him b/c he's protected by Gomes...

For some fans, sure. But those are pretty unreasonable expectations to hang on a guy who makes a living hitting the ball on the ground and with his legs IMO. I certainly don't think the Braves expect him to be a perennial All-Star, but you're right - some fans will. Like we both have said, it's a question of labels. If Peraza turns into an Otis Nixon type player I personally think the organization will be thrilled (and I would too).

[smootness]

People need to stop calling Peraza an 'all singles' hitter. He had 33 XBH in 110 games last year, as a 20-year-old in A+ and AA. Calling him a singles hitter is just misinformed. He's also 6'0" 180...there's no reason to believe he can't develop even more power.

He has consistently put up an ISO around .100, as a really young guy at every level. He's started slower at AAA, but he still has two 3Bs this year. No reason to think he won't start hitting more XBH.

As far as his errors, Simmons had 28 in 2011 and then made a joke of all defensive metrics by the very next year. A lot of times errors in the minors can mean a guy is getting to more balls and trying to make crazy plays, not that he's just letting balls go under his glove.

[thethe]

People need to stop calling Peraza an 'all singles' hitter. He had 33 XBH in 110 games last year, as a 20-year-old in A+ and AA. Calling him a singles hitter is just misinformed. He's also 6'0" 180...there's no reason to believe he can't develop even more power.

He has consistently put up an ISO around .100, as a really young guy at every level. He's started slower at AAA, but he still has two 3Bs this year. No reason to think he won't start hitting more XBH.

As far as his errors, Simmons had 28 in 2011 and then made a joke of all defensive metrics by the very next year. A lot of times errors in the minors can mean a guy is getting to more balls and trying to make crazy plays, not that he's just letting balls go under his glove.

Great post right here. His speed will turn what are singles for some into doubles and what are doubles for some into triples. This guy is the real deal. Can't wait to see him up here.

[nsacpi]

Peraza's most likely projection is major league regular playing second and batting at the top of the lineup. He could be All-Star caliber for multiple seasons but I would put the odds of that at below 50 percent.

[atl717]

Peraza is an elite prospect. Will be in the Top 20 in the mid-season lists.

I am not negative on Peraza at all. He just is not a top 20 prospect. Top 20 prospects have star potential. Mookie Betts wasn't even a top 20 prospect and he is a stud. 2b is not a premium position

I like Peraza. But a .750 OPS with some speed and defense from a 2B is solid, not spectacular. He is not a high ceiling guy.

[chop2chip]

I was more surprised at the 55 CF....shouldn't be be better than that with all of that speed? Is it an arm issue?
Billy Hamilton had a similar grade in the minor leagues. His problem was he was terrible at making reads, but he's figured that out now.

I'm sure Smith could become an excellent defensive centerfielder. His instincts just need to catch up to his physical ability.

[chop2chip]

I am not negative on Peraza at all. He just is not a top 20 prospect. Top 20 prospects have star potential. Mookie Betts wasn't even a top 20 prospect and he is a stud. 2b is not a premium position

I like Peraza. But a .750 OPS with some speed and defense from a 2B is solid, not spectacular. He is not a high ceiling guy.
Some speed? Some defense?

You totally immasculated the two best parts of his game.

FWIW, Keith Law said in his chat that Peraza should be a future all star. There's just not a lot of premier second baseman since teams usually push for their best prospects to play other positions.

[yeezus]

Some speed? Some defense?

You totally immasculated the two best parts of his game.

FWIW, Keith Law said in his chat that Peraza should be a future all star. There's just not a lot of premier second baseman since teams usually push for their best prospects to play other positions.

Yeah, a great defensive, high-speed 2B with a .750 OPS is absolutely a top player at 2B.