Next Year's Triple A Team

[nsacpi]

Triple A is a strange level, a mix of real prospects, AAAA type players and organizational filler. It isn't unusual for top prospects to by-pass AAA entirely and jump to the majors straight from AA. In looking at a AAA roster it is useful to divide it up between players young enough to realistically have room to improve (which I somewhat arbitrarily define as players age 25 and under) and those who have plateaued (26 and over). Of course there are always late bloomers and some of the older players can be useful when called up due to an injury at the majors.

Anyhow this little preamble does lead to a point which I think is worth thinking and talking about. Next year's AAA team is going to be a bit unusual. It will have many more players age 25 and under than usual. Currently, the Gwinnett roster has 18 players age 26 or older. At the start of the season the number was about the same.

We don't know for sure who will be on the AAA team next year. Trades, free agent signings, injuries and other events will have an impact. But as things currently stand, we could plausibly have a team with these players:

Catcher: Bethancourt

Infielders: Mejia, La Stella, Pastornicky, Salcedo, Leonard

Outfielders: Terdoslavich, Cunningham, Constanza

Pitchers: Gilmartin, Graham, Wood, Martin, Northcraft, Hale, Schlosser, Lamm, Jaime, Harper

Three of the pitchers on this list (Hale, Lamm and Jaime) will be 26 next season. And Mejia and Constanza are older than 25 as well.

But that's a very large group of players that still have room for growth. For the most part they are not elite prospects, but they are far from organizational filler. Some will not pan out at all. But a couple will probably surprise by improving more than expected.

What are the implications of this? The first one is that we will have a terrific "second bench" in AAA. The contributions from guys like Terdoslavich this year have highlighted the importance of this. This year's AAA team was light in starting pitching that could step up. We had to keep our fingers crossed that our starting rotation would stay healthy until Beachy was ready. Next year's AAA team will have a lot of starting pitching, a lot of good bullpen arms, and good cover at all the positions.

The second implication of having this sort of AAA team might be even more important. There are a lot of major league teams that don't have much talent in the upper majors. When someone on their major league team goes down they have to scramble. Often they are willing to trade a player with more upside who is further away from being ready for someone who is close to being major league ready. Our minor league system is a little light at the moment in high upside players, especially position players. Frank Wren is going to have some opportunities to do something about that given the guys we have ticketed for AAA next year.

[thethe]

Great post but I disagree with Wood being in AAA. He will be in the starting rotation next year.

Overall the Braves have a big chasm in their minor league talent that is residing in Lynchburg right now. The talent in AAA/AA is solid (nothing spectacular outside of CB IMO) and the talent in Single A and down is good. Lynchburg is horrible though with maybe Lipka and Elander being the only legitimate names there.

Just have to hope the progression from Single A and down remains solid.

But your point is valid, the AAA team is going to be good next year and supply the Major league club with lots of options.

[nsacpi]

Great post but I disagree with Wood being in AAA. He will be in the starting rotation next year.



I think we'll bring back Huddy and have a rotation of Hudson, Beachy, Minor, Medlen and Teheran.

Wood will be the Prince of Wales waiting in AAA, waiting for one of those five to kick the bucket. That sixth starter is pretty important. He'll get plenty of major league action.

[thethe]

Would Huddy even be ready by April? I didn't hear a timetable released for him.

[nsacpi]

Would Huddy even be ready by April? I didn't hear a timetable released for him.

I haven't seen any details on his timetable. But it doesn't seem to be a Joe Theisman type injury.

[nsacpi]

Lynchburg is horrible though with maybe Lipka and Elander being the only legitimate names there.



Imo Kubitza is the best prospect in Lynchburg. And I like a couple of the relievers--Carlos Perez and John Cornely. But yeah, it is the weak spot of our farm system this year.

[Hulavol]

Hudson will be ready in December. He will be at Disney ready to roll....with a well rested arm.....

[Heyward]

I'd trade Medlen for prospects or move him to the pen.

Huddy depends on how much he wants.

If we can't keep Mac, I'd dip in the FA market for a top tier starter.

[Julio3000]

I think we'll bring back Huddy and have a rotation of Hudson, Beachy, Minor, Medlen and Teheran.

Wood will be the Prince of Wales waiting in AAA, waiting for one of those five to kick the bucket. That sixth starter is pretty important. He'll get plenty of major league action.

Replacing JJ as the ambassador to the cetaceans?

[nsacpi]

Replacing JJ as the ambassador to the cetaceans?

no, the Cymry

[skidlee]

IMO Wood will be in ATL and in the rotation. I also think that Medlen will be traded. I doubt they move him to the pen given the price he will be at next year.

[nsacpi]

IMO Wood will be in ATL and in the rotation. I also think that Medlen will be traded. I doubt they move him to the pen given the price he will be at next year.

There is a lot of value to having a talented major league-ready starter in AAA. We were lucky not to have needed one until July this year. The odds are our best starter in AAA will end up getting a lot of major league starts.

[thethe]

There is a lot of value to having a talented major league-ready starter in AAA. We were lucky not to have needed one until July this year. The odds are our best starter in AAA will end up getting a lot of major league starts.

Even without Wood there will be plenty of options in AAA next year for a spot start. I agree with Sid. I think Medlen is the big sell candidate in the offseason to help re-stock the system.

[skidlee]

There is a lot of value to having a talented major league-ready starter in AAA. We were lucky not to have needed one until July this year. The odds are our best starter in AAA will end up getting a lot of major league starts.

Don't disagree but by trading Medlen and replacing him with Wood you once again save some money.

Martin will be major league ready next year and I would even put Schlosser and at some point Northcraft will be ready. I have also not given up on Gilmartin.

Barring the injury from Hudson would Medlen even be in the rotation right now? I am just following the MO of the braves. Medlen won't be here next year.

[nsacpi]

Wren loves Medlen. I don't think he'll be traded, especially with his value down.

[thethe]

The Braves are going to have to choose between one of Medlen or Minor long term and at this point as much as I love Medlen the answer seems pretty clear. Its always better to trade a player one year too early. It didn't make sense to trade Medlen this past offseason but I see it making sense now.

[Jay212033]

I wish we had sold high on Meds this past off season. I honestly think we could've gotten a lot for him. I still think we can package him for a good player.

[nsacpi]

The Braves are going to have to choose between one of Medlen or Minor long term and at this point as much as I love Medlen the answer seems pretty clear. Its always better to trade a player one year too early. It didn't make sense to trade Medlen this past offseason but I see it making sense now.

I don't think we'll keep either long-term. The pipeline overfloweth: Teheran, Wood, Martin, Graham, Hursh, Sims, Cabrera.

[thethe]

I don't think we'll keep either long-term. The pipeline overfloweth: Teheran, Wood, Martin, Graham, Hursh, Sims, Cabrera.

Need the ace. i'd lock up Minor personally. This is no fluke.

[nsacpi]

pitcher + long-term contract = regret

90% of the time

[thethe]

pitcher + long-term contract = regret

90% of the time

You can't just hope that you will continually develop TOR type arms. I think Minor should be kept.

[GovClintonTyree]

pitcher + long-term contract = regret

90% of the time

If they're 30+.

Locking in 26 +- 2 = smart spending.

[GovClintonTyree]

You can't just hope that you will continually develop TOR type arms. I think Minor should be kept.

Nsacpi has been suggesting we ladder and deal pitchers as they hit arbitration for well over a year. I told him back on Scout that expectation was unrealistic. I would give long term (4 yr) deals to Minor, Medlen (I think he'll work through this average patch) and Teheran. I think we hit the pitching lottery and to expect young pitching to be fungible is unrealistic. And a huge mistake.

But I do like the idea of keeping Huddy around for another year or two if he's up to it and remains affordable.

[thethe]

Nsacpi has been suggesting we ladder and deal pitchers as they hit arbitration for well over a year. I told him back on Scout that expectation was unrealistic. I would give long term (4 yr) deals to Minor, Medlen (I think he'll work through this average patch) and Teheran. I think we hit the pitching lottery and to expect young pitching to be fungible is unrealistic. And a huge mistake.

But I do like the idea of keeping Huddy around for another year or two if he's up to it and remains affordable.

I don't think its unrealistic to think we can leave 3 spots in the rotation unsigned. Braves are so good at developing arms and you coudl always sign a vet for a short term deal. Minor/tehearn long term is the way to go.

[nsacpi]

Two years ago everyone wanted to lock up Beachy, last year it was Medlen, this year Minor, next year it will be Teheran and in two years Wood will be that indispensable ace. I see a pattern (we can take it back further to Hanson and Jurrjens). As I said the pipeline overfloweth. No need to risk long-term contracts on pitchers, even younger ones.

[skidlee]

and we also wait to long to trade some pitchers

ie JJ and Hanson

Medlen needs to go now while he still has decent value

[nsacpi]

If I were to pick one of our pitchers to lock up it would be Teheran, just based on my assessment of talent and upside. But even in his case I say why take the risk.

[zitothebrave]

I don't think its unrealistic to think we can leave 3 spots in the rotation unsigned. Braves are so good at developing arms and you coudl always sign a vet for a short term deal. Minor/tehearn long term is the way to go.

I'm more or less on board with this. Julio is the guy we build around, the guy we pay long term. Minor for another 6 or 7 years total and let him leave in his early 30s.

You can win with the quality of the arms we keep bringing up. Even factoring in guys who we don't know their total value or got hurt we have called up since 09. Medlen, Hanson, Beachy, Minor, Julio, Wood, and Delgado. Hanson in 09 would be the first one we would have traded off most likely assuming he stayed healthy. If we can keep that level of talent coming through the system then you can easily get by with a 3 man rotation for the backend.

Building off now let's kick Medlen out now and Bring Huddy back or kick Medlen out after Arb 2 and roll

2014
Hudson/Medlen
Minor
Julio
Beachy
Wood

2015
Minor
Julio
Beachy
Wood
Sims

2016
Minor
Julio
Wood
Sims
Cabrera

That's not counting the level of good but not great talent guys we have like Graham and Gilmartin who I would put in there if not for Shoulder issues, or guys like Northcraft, Hale, Martin, etc.

By only keeping 2 guys who're cheap now but will be expensive later and pawning off guys like Medlen or Beachy before they cost way too much allows us to do 2 things. First we can restock our farm system or make a move for a need in the position department. Second is that money would allow us to more likely keep Justin, Jason, Freddie and Simmons together who are the 4 guys we have to keep around if we want to be great for the next 4-5 years.

[GovClintonTyree]

Two years ago everyone wanted to lock up Beachy, last year it was Medlen, this year Minor, next year it will be Teheran and in two years Wood will be that indispensable ace. I see a pattern (we can take it back further to Hanson and Jurrjens). As I said the pipeline overfloweth. No need to risk long-term contracts on pitchers, even younger ones.

I understand. Beachy was who I wasn't remembering. Beachy needs a deal. And I wanted Minor and Medlen last year. I think you do lock these young pitchers up. I think we hit the lotto. I don't think this pipeline is sustainable, much as others are shouting that Lord BABIP's average is unsustainable.

Jurrjens and Hanson were outliers. Very seldom do guys get that bad that fast. For the record (and it's somewhere in the Scout archives), I knew the first time I saw Hanson he would have problems, and would not have advocated a long term deal for him. Jurrjens' decline did surprise me, but I think he surprised a lot of people.

[Jay212033]

I'm more or less on board with this. Julio is the guy we build around, the guy we pay long term. Minor for another 6 or 7 years total and let him leave in his early 30s.

You can win with the quality of the arms we keep bringing up. Even factoring in guys who we don't know their total value or got hurt we have called up since 09. Medlen, Hanson, Beachy, Minor, Julio, Wood, and Delgado. Hanson in 09 would be the first one we would have traded off most likely assuming he stayed healthy. If we can keep that level of talent coming through the system then you can easily get by with a 3 man rotation for the backend.

Building off now let's kick Medlen out now and Bring Huddy back or kick Medlen out after Arb 2 and roll

2014
Hudson/Medlen
Minor
Julio
Beachy
Wood

2015
Minor
Julio
Beachy
Wood
Sims

2016
Minor
Julio
Wood
Sims
Cabrera

That's not counting the level of good but not great talent guys we have like Graham and Gilmartin who I would put in there if not for Shoulder issues, or guys like Northcraft, Hale, Martin, etc.

By only keeping 2 guys who're cheap now but will be expensive later and pawning off guys like Medlen or Beachy before they cost way too much allows us to do 2 things. First we can restock our farm system or make a move for a need in the position department. Second is that money would allow us to more likely keep Justin, Jason, Freddie and Simmons together who are the 4 guys we have to keep around if we want to be great for the next 4-5 years.

Hursh will be in the Majors before Sims.

[nsacpi]

2014
Hudson/Medlen
Minor
Julio
Beachy
Wood

2015
Minor
Julio
Beachy
Wood
Sims

2016
Minor
Julio
Wood
Sims
Cabrera



Here's how I see it

2014
Hudson
Medlen
Beachy
Minor
Teheran (with Wood in reserve in AAA)

2015
Medlen (free agent year, hope has a great season and we can collect an extra #1 draft pick)
Beachy
Minor
Teheran
Wood (with Graham and Hursh in reserve in AAA)

2016
Beachy (free agent year, see above comment about Medlen)
Minor
Teheran
Wood
Graham or Hursh (with Sims and Cabrera in reserve in AAA)

Some of the above will not work out/get injured. We have in reserve Martin, Gilmartin, Northcraft, Schlosser, Hale, Parsons, Thomas. Some of the reserve won't pan out either. But a couple will go to the pen. One or two will step in the rotation. And a couple will get traded.

[thethe]

Sims won't be in the majors until 2016 at the earliest IMO. They are going to be patient and develop him right.

[thethe]

Why is everyone so confident about Huddy being able to return effectively?

[skidlee]

why are you not? its just a broke ankle

[nsacpi]

Why is everyone so confident about Huddy being able to return effectively?

I think we would have heard if it was a career threatening type of injury. It looked awful, but it seems not to be a Joe Theisman type injury.

[thethe]

why are you not? its just a broke ankle

I mean, Huddy is not a young man. Luckily its not his plant leg but I just don't see how we can just assume that a 39 year old man will be able to recover from surgery and pitch in the major leagues.

[Heyward]

There is a lot of value to having a talented major league-ready starter in AAA. We were lucky not to have needed one until July this year. The odds are our best starter in AAA will end up getting a lot of major league starts.

With our payroll, we need younger guys in the rotation who don't make much.

Wood needs to be in the rotation next season.

[Heyward]

pitcher + long-term contract = regret

90% of the time

Depends on the price.

How much you think it would cost to sign Minor?

[Heyward]

Two years ago everyone wanted to lock up Beachy, last year it was Medlen, this year Minor, next year it will be Teheran and in two years Wood will be that indispensable ace. I see a pattern (we can take it back further to Hanson and Jurrjens). As I said the pipeline overfloweth. No need to risk long-term contracts on pitchers, even younger ones.

Well, you can't keep everyone.

Minor is also only 25 or 26, can't expect every prospect to pan out. I would definitely look at signing Minor to a long term deal. He's the real deal.

[Heyward]

Is there anything wrong with signing pitchers to long term deals.

Minor isn't in his 30's.

You can't expect every pitcher to pan out.

I'd build around Minor and Julio then work the other 3 spots depending how some develop.

[nsacpi]

Depends on the price.

How much you think it would cost to sign Minor?

Chris Sale last year had a similar year to what Minor is having this year. His contract would probably be looked at as a predecent. This is his contract signed going into his last pre-arb year (I believe Minor will fall short of Super 2 status and have his last pre-arb year in 2014).

◾13:$0.85M, 14:$3.5M, 15:$6M, 16:$9.15M, 17:$12M, 18:$12.5M club option ($1M buyout), 19:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout)
◾2019 option increases 1) by $2.5M to $16M with a Cy Young in 2013-18 or 2) by $1.5M to $15M with a second- or third-place finish in Cy Young vote in 2013-18

[Heyward]

Chris Sale last year had a similar year to what Minor is having this year. His contract would probably be looked at as a predecent. This is his contract signed going into his last pre-arb year (I believe Minor will fall short of Super 2 status and have his last pre-arb year in 2014).

◾13:$0.85M, 14:$3.5M, 15:$6M, 16:$9.15M, 17:$12M, 18:$12.5M club option ($1M buyout), 19:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout)
◾2019 option increases 1) by $2.5M to $16M with a Cy Young in 2013-18 or 2) by $1.5M to $15M with a second- or third-place finish in Cy Young vote in 2013-18

I'd gladly do that.

You need a couple stud arms at the top of your staff.

[cajunrevenge]

I dont know what Wren will do but I do want Huddy re-signed and Wood to start at AAA. Odds are Wood would still make 20+ starts in the majors. I would rather have a good option at AAA than to plan on having 5 healthy starters all year. Hudson's injury was supposed to be a 4 month recovery and its not an arm injury so he should be fine by spring training. We never know when a starter could go down with TJ surgery and miss a year.

The AAA team next year looks to have a lot of potential bench players and fringe starters. Really good depth to have. I like Cunningham and the Terd Burglar, always good to have switch hitters on the team. I wont be surprised if some team makes a good offer for Schafer and the Braves take it.

[skidlee]

I don't mean to jump the subject but I really wonder what the Bench and Pen will look like in atlanta next year. Lots of options. And I want to re-sign EOF just to be out lefty trade guy for July. Don't even worry about him and just let him rehab slowly. If he doesn't come back to August so what.

[Heyward]

I dont know what Wren will do but I do want Huddy re-signed and Wood to start at AAA. Odds are Wood would still make 20+ starts in the majors. I would rather have a good option at AAA than to plan on having 5 healthy starters all year. Hudson's injury was supposed to be a 4 month recovery and its not an arm injury so he should be fine by spring training. We never know when a starter could go down with TJ surgery and miss a year.

The AAA team next year looks to have a lot of potential bench players and fringe starters. Really good depth to have. I like Cunningham and the Terd Burglar, always good to have switch hitters on the team. I wont be surprised if some team makes a good offer for Schafer and the Braves take it.

On Huddy, depends how much he wants.

I think Wood needs to be in the rotation.

If we can't keep Mac, I wouldn't mind dipping into the FA market for a starter like AJ Burnett or Garza.

[Heyward]

I don't mean to jump the subject but I really wonder what the Bench and Pen will look like in atlanta next year. Lots of options. And I want to re-sign EOF just to be out lefty trade guy for July. Don't even worry about him and just let him rehab slowly. If he doesn't come back to August so what.

What about former Brave, Mike Gonzalez?

Do we offer Venters arbitration?

I'd bring back EOF if possible. A cheap one year deal then he can cash in the following year if he comes back strong.

We have some interesting options off the bench next year.

[skidlee]

What about former Brave, Mike Gonzalez?

Do we offer Venters arbitration?

I'd bring back EOF if possible. A cheap one year deal then he can cash in the following year if he comes back strong.

We have some interesting options off the bench next year.

I wouldn't hate Mike but I want EOF for the run next year. 1 yr 1.5 or so is good to me. I would think the braves offer Venters arby. Not sure why you wouldn't.

[Heyward]

I wouldn't hate Mike but I want EOF for the run next year. 1 yr 1.5 or so is good to me. I would think the braves offer Venters arby. Not sure why you wouldn't.

What's Venters cost, around 2 mil?

[skidlee]

What's Venters cost, around 2 mil?

yeah 2 to 2.3 mill is what it should be.

[JohnAdcox]

Am I the only one who thinks Terdoslavich has a chance for a bench role next year? Maybe in place of Reed Johnson? (And I say that as a RJ fan.)

[nsacpi]

Fredi loves Terdoslavich. But if we bring back both McCann and Reed Johnson he might have to start the year in AAA. We see every year that the top guys in AAA end up spending a lot of time in the majors. AAA is like a second bench.

[Nerfherders]

I've always found it interesting that there are guys that thrive at the AAA level, and yet are never considered for even a backup role in the majors. Guys like Mejia, Gartrell, and Canizares. These are the career AAA stars basically. I just find it intriguing that there is such a thing. It's like Crash Davis winning the all time minor league home run record.

[50PoundHead]

I've always found it interesting that there are guys that thrive at the AAA level, and yet are never considered for even a backup role in the majors. Guys like Mejia, Gartrell, and Canizares. These are the career AAA stars basically. I just find it intriguing that there is such a thing. It's like Crash Davis winning the all time minor league home run record.

AAA and the bigs are still on different planets and the difference usually boils down to raw athletic ability.

Should be an interesting off-season.

I don't see how a team that is supposedly hamstrung financially can afford Reed Johnson at $3 M per season. I like Johnson, but he's a luxury on a tight budget.

[nsacpi]

We actually have a lot of financial flexibility for 2014.

[Nerfherders]

Oh yeah, how could I forget Mike Hessman? He might actually get the minors home run title! He needs 38 (or 44) home runs to tie Buzz Arlett.

[thethe]

What will Schafers cost be next year? Does he get a multi year deal from someone?

[50PoundHead]

Oh yeah, how could I forget Mike Hessman? He might actually get the minors home run title! He needs 38 (or 44) home runs to tie Buzz Arlett.

Like Gartrell, Mejia, Canizares, another big strong guy with a slider-speed bat.

I think one of the fallacies that sprung indirectly from the--and I hesitate to call it this--"Moneyball" movement is that AAA stats are transferable across a broad range of players. I say indirectly, because I believe this sentiment really came from some wayward disciples of the deep stats movement as opposed to the core. I put very little stock in MLEs.

Some guys can play and some guys can't. I agree with Billy Beane when he said there isn't that much of a difference between the top 1/3 of guys in Triple A and the bottom 1/3 of guys in the major leagues. I'd probably whittle that down to 1/4 or 1/5, but I can't see why a guy like Jamey Carroll is earning what he's earning and you can't tell me the Twins wouldn't be better off in the long run suffering through Aaron Hicks' woes than watching Clete Thomas play regularly. But there are certain skills that play well at the margins that put guys like Mejia, Gartrell, and Canizares where they are. The thing that has always surprised me somewhat about Hessman's inability to stay in the big leagues is that he can actually field fairly well (not great, but fairly well). But, getting back to MLEs, if Hessman had come close to his AAA projections, he'd have been the Braves' starting 3B instead of DeRosa in 2004.

[nsacpi]

What will Schafers cost be next year? Does he get a multi year deal from someone?

Next year is his first arb season. He'll get around 1.5M. We have him under control through 2016.

[Heyward]

Next year is his first arb season. He'll get around 1.5M. We have him under control through 2016.

Is the same with Carpenter?

I think he was claimed too.

What's his arb/contract status?

I thought that was the case with Jordan.

[nsacpi]

Like Gartrell, Mejia, Canizares, another big strong guy with a slider-speed bat.

I think one of the fallacies that sprung indirectly from the--and I hesitate to call it this--"Moneyball" movement is that AAA stats are transferable across a broad range of players. I say indirectly, because I believe this sentiment really came from some wayward disciples of the deep stats movement as opposed to the core. I put very little stock in MLEs.

Some guys can play and some guys can't. I agree with Billy Beane when he said there isn't that much of a difference between the top 1/3 of guys in Triple A and the bottom 1/3 of guys in the major leagues. I'd probably whittle that down to 1/4 or 1/5, but I can't see why a guy like Jamey Carroll is earning what he's earning and you can't tell me the Twins wouldn't be better off in the long run suffering through Aaron Hicks' woes than watching Clete Thomas play regularly. But there are certain skills that play well at the margins that put guys like Mejia, Gartrell, and Canizares where they are. The thing that has always surprised me somewhat about Hessman's inability to stay in the big leagues is that he can actually field fairly well (not great, but fairly well). But, getting back to MLEs, if Hessman had come close to his AAA projections, he'd have been the Braves' starting 3B instead of DeRosa in 2004.

Thing is there are some useful players who languish in AAA a long time. Brooks Conrad (at least his bat as opposed to his glove) was a useful bench player for us for a couple years. Brandon Moss spent a lot of time in AAA and seemed to disappoint whenever he got called up. But the last two years, he's been a solid contributor to a playoff team. The Mets have a kid named Josh Satin (well he's not such a kid at age 28) whose numbers I've been looking at the last couple years and thinking he might be a useful player. He only got the proverbial cup of coffee in the bigs in 2011 and 2012, but this year is finally getting a real opportunity and doing very well with it.

[50PoundHead]

Thing is there are some useful players who languish in AAA a long time. Brooks Conrad (at least his bat as opposed to his glove) was a useful bench player for us for a couple years. Brandon Moss spent a lot of time in AAA and seemed to disappoint whenever he got called up. But the last two years, he's been a solid contributor to a playoff team. The Mets have a kid named Josh Satin (well he's not such a kid at age 28) whose numbers I've been looking at the last couple years and thinking he might be a useful player. He only got the proverbial cup of coffee in the bigs in 2011 and 2012, but this year is finally getting a real opportunity and doing very well with it.

Of course there are useful players in AAA. I don't think that was the point of my post. Moss is probably the new Jack Cust. He'll stick around for awhile. There was simply a mad rush a few years back where a segment of analysts seemed to believe that anyone who put up a .900 OPS in AAA warranted a full big league shot that I found a bit simplistic.