6/21/15: GDT - NY Mets @ Atlanta Braves

[Garmel]

Mets
1. Curtis Granderson (L) RF
2. Juan Lagares (R) CF
3. Lucas Duda (L) 1B
4. Michael Cuddyer (R) LF
5. Wilmer Flores (R) SS
6. Kevin Plawecki (R) C
7. Dilson Herrera (R) 2B
8. Eric Campbell (R) 3B
9. Matt Harvey (R) P

Braves
1. Jace Peterson (L) 2B
2. Cameron Maybin (R) CF
3. Kelly Johnson (L) 1B
4. Nick Markakis (L) RF
5. Juan Uribe (R) 3B
6. Andrelton Simmons (R) SS
7. Eury Perez (R) LF
8. Ryan Lavarnway (R) C
9. Julio Teheran (R) P

[GovClintonTyree]

I heard Matt Harvey was gay.

[jpx7]

Expecting a higher-calorie brew from Lavarnway.

[UNCBlue012]

It would be nice to have Freddie back...

[Garmel]

This worries me.

Mark Bowman ‏@mlbbowman 46m46 minutes ago

"Freeman's wrist was still sore when he swung a bat today. He might get an MRI tomorrow."

[thethe]

This worries me.

Mark Bowman ‏@mlbbowman 46m46 minutes ago

"Freeman's wrist was still sore when he swung a bat today. He might get an MRI tomorrow."

Oh geez...thats awful. Hope he is healthy.

[weso1]

Julio needs to get back on track against that crap lineup. Duda is having a nice year but other than that it's a bit of meh and a whole lot of blah.

[Heyward]

This worries me.

Mark Bowman ‏@mlbbowman 46m46 minutes ago

"Freeman's wrist was still sore when he swung a bat today. He might get an MRI tomorrow."

Sigh

[UNCBlue012]

Maybin! Also, Julio sucks.

[Heyward]

No runs but 47 pitches for Harvey after 2.

[Hawk]

Andrelton + Jack = amaze.

[Hawk]

+ Eury

[chop2chip]

I kinda like Eury

[WaitingFor2017]

As long as Eury is on the team and KJ can't go/replaces Freddie, there's no reason for Gomes to face righties.

[Heyward]

61 through 3 for Harvey.

[Hawk]

lol at Chip trying to pronounce Touki's name

[Garmel]

Best pitched game by Julio this year.

[Heyward]

JaceOnBase

[UNCBlue012]

Keep it up Julio! I'm glad I slandered him earlier!

[thethe]

I like Eury Perez.

[Braves1976]

I've liked Eury Perez ever since we got him. I am not sure if he'll be a starter full time, but he should be a top notch 4th outfielder given his speed and defense and good platoon partner for Smith going forward thanks to handling lefties better than righties. That is why I want him on the team next year.

Note: Eury Perez has no minor league options left past this year so he's on the team next year or he'll need to hit waivers to be sent down.

[thethe]

Its good to see this Julio.

[Runnin]

How 'bout a different song, for Chrissakes.

[sturg33]

How 'bout a different song, for Chrissakes.

or just a different singer

[blueagleace1]

Hey guys, I haven't got to watch any of the game and I'm not going to (very superstitious with Julio throwing this well I'm not changing anything) until it's over and I can watch on MLB.tv. I see Julio looks good but my question is how Lavarway looks and are he and Julio on the same page?

Thanks guys!

[cajunrevenge]

How good is Eury defense in center.

[Runnin]

Eury Perez's head moves around like a bobblehead doll.

[thethe]

DON'T PINCH HIT HERE!

[Runnin]

Dang, I hate having to take Teheran out.

[cajunrevenge]

No please leave Julio in!

[Braves1976]

How good is Eury defense in center.

Eury is better in center than in left field, he is also better in RF than LF. He really isn't very good in LF for some reason, possibly because he has mostly played CF and RF in the minors.

He is fine in CF to answer your question, nothing special but good out there.

[Heyward]

Disagree with taking out Julio.

[atl717]

Fredi is an idiot. Its not even like we have good pinch hit options.

[thethe]

Still don't agree with the move but Fredi played the situation well there.

[Krovahn]

Huge hit for Ciriaco! Good move, Fredi!

[Runnin]

DON'T PINCH HIT HERE!
Woohoo!

[atl717]

lol wrong move works. But now watch the awful pen go to work.

[Heyward]

Disagree with taking out Julio.

Still do, dont trust the pen

[atl717]

At least we are at the bottom of the Mets lineup.

[Braves1976]

Ciriaco does it again! He has been a nice add to our bench.

[stpeteirish]

Still do, dont trust the pen

yeah, and this would be three nights in a row for Grilli, might want to go to plan B whatever that might be.

[thethe]

This guy Jace Peterson....

[Braves1976]

Peterson on two times again today with another double and of course another walk.

[thethe]

Ciriaco does it again! He has been a nice add to our bench.

Hitters like Ciriaco/Perez/Castro seem to be made for bench type roles. I think we have the makings of a damn good bench next year.

[UNCBlue012]

Jace has great pitch recognition.

[Braves1976]

I like hitters like Ciriaco/Perez/Castro for the bench. I think we have the makings of a damn good bench next year.

I like those three for our bench next year too.

[thethe]

Jace has great pitch recognition.

Not afraid to go to 2 strikes either.

[VirginiaBrave]

If Johnson and Grilli can't close it, so be it. Getting on Fredi for playing it that way is nitpicking. Any manager in baseball would have played it that way.

[thethe]

If Johnson and Grilli can't close it, so be it. Getting on Fredi for playing it that way is nitpicking. Any manager in baseball would have played it that way.

Not sure any but there would definitely be some.

[Braves1976]

Not afraid to go to 2 strikes either.

It seems he might lead the league in full counts since becoming a regular starter. He sure has a lot of them.

[thethe]

It seems he might lead the league in full counts since becoming a regular starter. He sure has a lot of them.

He ranks 44th in baseball in pitches for AB's.

It feels like that rank is climbing everyday.

[Heyward]

yeah, and this would be three nights in a row for Grilli, might want to go to plan B whatever that might be.

We have an off-day Monday.

[Braves1976]

Masset has improved since his last cry, I guess his first cry didn't do the trick. Hopefully he won't need another cry tonight (and keeps up the good work).

[Braves1976]

That worked out but I wouldn't expect that match-up to work much. Glad Eveland did better this time.

[Runnin]

Grilli isn't wearing a uniform.

[Heyward]

Masset has improved since his last cry, I guess his first cry didn't do the trick. Hopefully he won't need another cry tonight (and keeps up the good work).

cry=try?

[Braves1976]

cry=try?

No Masset literally cried after he had his first bad game for us, then again when he got hammered against the Dodgers I think (probably was afraid that would get him DFA'd). He was crying in that interview.

[CyYoung31]

cry=try?

I think he's confusing Masset with Cahill.

[Julio3000]

I think he's confusing Masset with Cahill.

If that's a giant baby joke, I heartily approve.

[Heyward]

Looks like Grilli with the day off.

[AerchAngel]

Bizzaro Teheran showed up today.

I hope Condom can do the job.

[Braves1976]

If that's a giant baby joke, I heartily approve.

I am guessing it was since that fits Cahill. :)

[CyYoung31]

If that's a giant baby joke, I heartily approve.

Yes.

[CyYoung31]

Masset really cried though? I need to see that.

[Braves1976]

Uh oh.

[atl717]

I hate Jim Johnson. Routinely choked away games for the Orioles. He's such an a-hole.

[AerchAngel]

I went to get some sum Tums. I hope there is no leak in that condom.

[Braves1976]

Masset really cried though? I need to see that.

Yes. It was in the AJC interviews section IIRC. He was the most upset after that terrible game vs the Dodgers I think.

[thethe]

YES! SWEEEEEEEEP!

[Krovahn]

Sweeeeeppppppppppppp

[Braves1976]

Good job boys, surprising sweep minus Freeman. Who needs Freeman?! JK of course. :)

[AerchAngel]

No leak, no baby daddy.

[Julio3000]

Did not see that coming.

[atl717]

Lucky to escape. Great series for the Braves. Keep the momentum going. Just hope Freddie is going to come back soon without lingering effects.

[thethe]

Good job boys, surprising sweep minus Freeman. Who needs Freeman?! JK of course. :)

Team has just been so much fun all year. Things could get interesting real quick if Jace/Maybin keep their productions at this level.

[sturg33]

Nice sweep beating three studs without our best player. Well done

[sturg33]

Team has just been so much fun all year. Things could get interesting real quick if Jace/Maybin keep their productions at this level.

Well their productions have been this way for a while and we've been a .500 team this month and for the first two months

[Julio3000]

Nice sweep beating three studs without our best player. Well done

We've been holding serve against bad teams, but sweeping a series against a decent team is something to build on. Wow.

[thethe]

Well their productions have been this way for a while and we've been a .500 team this month and for the first two months

I think the starting pitching is going to get better as the season progresses and the bullpen is going to get better just from internal additions.

This offense is goingto battle and score runs. Need the pitching to get better and I think thats very likely to happen at very cheap costs, if any, to the organization.

[Chipper]

Well their productions have been this way for a while and we've been a .500 team this month and for the first two months

If we had a decent pen, things would be much better. It's not like we're losing by trailing late in most games. We've lost quite a few after leading late. The team is playing well enough to win games, just can't keep the other team from excessive scoring from the 7th on.

[Heyward]

I hate Jim Johnson. Routinely choked away games for the Orioles. He's such an a-hole.

You arent much better.

[Runnin]

What the heck happened?

Btw, I hate the new gameday/media player for mlbtv.

[thethe]

If we had a decent pen, things would be much better. It's not like we're losing by trailing late in most games. We've lost quite a few after leading late. The team is playing well enough to win games, just can't keep the other team from excessive scoring from the 7th on.

What is the perception of this team if they are 8 games over 500 right now? You can't tell me that there wasn't 4 games this year that an average pen would have upheld?

[thethe]

What the heck happened?

Btw, I hate the new gameday/media player for mlbtv.

Double play to end the game. 5-4-3

[Heyward]

What is the perception of this team if they are 8 games over 500 right now? You can't tell me that there wasn't 4 games this year that an average pen would have upheld?

There's at least 5-7 they hold with a pen worth a crap.

But who knows the media talk if they were 8 over.

[cajunrevenge]

I swear my GameDay said in play - runs and showed a man on second when Cuddyer hit the ball. Was real surprised when the audio caught up and we got a DP.

[Heyward]

Well their productions have been this way for a while and we've been a .500 team this month and for the first two months

Sure have, and how many games have the bullpen cost them?

Off the top of my head.

2 vs SD, 2 vs Ari, 1 vs Was, 1 last week vs NY, im sure some others as well.

And i know other teams have had it happen, but Atl has the most bullpen losses in baseball.

Just add 4 of those back, and the perception of the team is different.

[jpx7]

Just add 4 of those back, and the perception of the team is different.

I don't think four more wins, over those listed games, would substantially change my perception of this team.

[NinersSBChamps]

Couldn't care less what the perception is about this team. It makes no difference on the outcomes of games. So ef what people say.

[Heyward]

I don't think four more wins, over those listed games, would substantially change my perception of this team.

You're right most likely, i think we need a couple more impact bats.

[thethe]

I don't think four more wins, over those listed games, would substantially change my perception of this team.

8 games over 500 is a pretty good record at this point in the season.

[jpx7]

8 games over 500 is a pretty good record at this point in the season.

Edit: My math was wrong, but my perception that it's a fictional state-of-affairs was nonetheless spot-on.

[thethe]

Considering the Braves are at .500 currently, four more wins would mean—get this—four games over .500; that's not especially impressive, but also entirely fictional, anyways.

You have to add 4 wins and subtract 4 wins sir if you give the Braves 4 games.

[CyYoung31]

You have to add 4 wins and subtract 4 wins sir if you give the Braves 4 games.

thethe dropping the math knowledge on jp.

[Braves1976]

We talked about this before, it seems it comes up every time we hit .500, and my take is still the same. If we fire Fredi and say hire someone like former Padres manager Bud Black (who is someone that can manage a bullpen) along with fixing our bullpen then we have a shot. But outside of doing that I don't see us contending for the playoffs all season. I could see a worst case happening though, where we tease just long enough to hold on to pieces we should be trading off (Grilli, JJ, etc). Then we come crashing down like Fredi teams often do by Sept. if not before hand.

[jpx7]

You have to add 4 wins and subtract 4 wins sir if you give the Braves 4 games.

thethe dropping the math knowledge on jp.

That's what I get for quick-posting from my phone when I'm trying to pack for a three-week trip; obviously I'm not doing either very well.

[Heyward]

The next week will probably tell quite a bit.

At Was, and At Pit.

They avoid Burnett and Cole at Pit, i think they get Zimmerman, Fister, and TBD in DC.

But still wouldnt bet on it especially if Freeman doesnt play for awhile.

[thethe]

No decisions should be made until mid July but I don't think its smart to completely exclude a chance to add.

[weso1]

I think the trade for the Haitian Sensation is a sign that the Braves are committed to a rebuild. They could have spent that money on a player that could help this year's team. Like Papelbon for example. Instead they spent it on a very young prospect.

[bravesnumberone]

Feels good to sweep those blue and orange assholes and put them back where they belong.

Nice to get back to .500 too.

[The Chosen One]

Fredi is rallying the troops to victory with our best hitter on the bench.

[WaitingFor2017]

In the 2015 Braves-Mets series, both teams are 5-1 against the other at home resulting in a 6-6 deadlock before finishing up their season series in September.

[JCarbo76]

What is the perception of this team if they are 8 games over 500 right now? You can't tell me that there wasn't 4 games this year that an average pen would have upheld?

Let's look at the actual numbers. Before today the Braves were 19-9 in games they led entering the sixth inning. That's a winning % of .679 as compared to the NL average of .829, which would translate to 23-5, so we'd be minus 4 by that analysis. BUT when you also consider games tied after six innings the Braves are .632 (12-7) compared to the league average of .505, so they are Plus three in that category. They are right on the league average of a 3-19 record in games trailing after six innings.

I have I included games tied entering each inning and games trailing entering each inning because it seems to me the bullpen is also a major factor in the outcome of those games.

So for the sixth innings the Braves are a net Minus 1 compared to the NL average (Minus four in games led, plus three in games tied and net zero on games behind)

If the beginning of the seventh inning is your benchmark the Braves are net minus 2 (Minus five, plus three, and zero).

If the beginning of the eighth inning is your benchmark the Braves are net plus 1 (minus 2, plus 2, plus 1)

If the beginning of the ninth inning is your benchmark, the Braves are net minus 1 (minus 1, minus 1, plus 1)

Food for thought, anyway.

[sturg33]

I think the starting pitching is going to get better as the season progresses and the bullpen is going to get better just from internal additions.

This offense is goingto battle and score runs. Need the pitching to get better and I think thats very likely to happen at very cheap costs, if any, to the organization.

So I guess what you meant to say was "Things could get interesting real quick if if the pitching gets better."

[cajunrevenge]

I think it's stupid to say we can't win the division. There's any number of things that could go our way that could tip the scale in our favor. This season reminds me of 2005.

[JCarbo76]

Let's look at the actual numbers. Before today the Braves were 19-9 in games they led entering the sixth inning. That's a winning % of .679 as compared to the NL average of .829, which would translate to 23-5, so we'd be minus 4 by that analysis. BUT when you also consider games tied after six innings the Braves are .632 (12-7) compared to the league average of .505, so they are Plus three in that category. They are right on the league average of a 3-19 record in games trailing after six innings.

I have I included games tied entering each inning and games trailing entering each inning because it seems to me the bullpen is also a major factor in the outcome of those games.

So for the sixth innings the Braves are a net Minus 1 compared to the NL average (Minus four in games led, plus three in games tied and net zero on games behind)

If the beginning of the seventh inning is your benchmark the Braves are net minus 2 (Minus five, plus three, and zero).

If the beginning of the eighth inning is your benchmark the Braves are net plus 1 (minus 2, plus 2, plus 1)

If the beginning of the ninth inning is your benchmark, the Braves are net minus 1 (minus 1, minus 1, plus 1)

Food for thought, anyway.

Also bbref has our bullpen as a combined minus 1.8 wins vs. the league average.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2015.shtml

[CrimsonCowboy]

Better late than never!
http://i.imgur.com/P6x0U.gif

[gilesfan]

I think the trade for the Haitian Sensation is a sign that the Braves are committed to a rebuild. They could have spent that money on a player that could help this year's team. Like Papelbon for example. Instead they spent it on a very young prospect.

Which is really smart. Teams get in big trouble when they perceive themselves much better or worse than they actually are.

[gilesfan]

Teheran still hurt or magically heal?

[CrimsonCowboy]

http://i404.photobucket.com/albums/pp123/Wild_Prairie_Flower/Misc%20Stuff/More%20Misc/broomHousework252Dbroom2.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LoBzCQrvXuE/TfbYA7fMSeI/AAAAAAAAANA/vaGF76ZeIZs/s1600/logo+mets+negro.jpg

[JCarbo76]

Which is really smart. Teams get in big trouble when they perceive themselves much better or worse than they actually are.

Of course, if the Braves could have gotten Papelbon for Gosselin, they might well have pulled the trigger on that one.

[gilesfan]

Of course, if the Braves could have gotten Papelbon for Gosselin, they might well have pulled the trigger on that one.

I dont think they would. I think they are committed to the rebuild. (Though that trade may not have affected rebuild)

[Heyward]

Teheran still hurt or magically heal?

Looked fantastic, need to see more.

[JCarbo76]

I dont think they would. I think they are committed to the rebuild. (Though that trade may not have affected rebuild)

Agree they might not have, if for no reason other than Papelbon is making 13m per season with a vesting option for 2016 if he finishes 24 more games this season (which he will easily do, absent an injury).

[jcc03004]

Agree they might not have, if for no reason other than Papelbon is making 13m per season with a vesting option for 2016 if he finishes 24 more games this season (which he will easily do, absent an injury).

You think if they got papelbon grilli would lose his job? Just hypothetical but what role would papelbon take the 8th or would grilli take the 8th and jj be our dp specialist?

[cajunrevenge]

Papelbon has too big of ego to not be the closer at this point. Grilli might get the save when Papelbon is unavailable to pitch though. I would take Papelbon and his salary if we don't have to give up serious prospects. That would give us 2 solid closers through 2016.

[thethe]

I really don't think the latest salary dump move has any impact on the decision making process this year. The Braves have aggregated a TREMENDOUS amount of young talent to the point where getting a marginal piece for Grilli/Johnson is negligable. Sure, if a team is desperate and offers an impact young blue chip then you make the deal but I just don't think that type of deal is going to be there.

Braves will be adding another influx of talent with the international signing period as mostly everyone has rumored the Braves will be aggressive the next two years.

The Braves in my estimation have played anywhere from 4-8 games over 500 under the assumption they have an average pen. This is relevant to me because I believe we will have that average pen with just internal pieces. Then if another relief arm is out there for a non-impact piece the move will be made.

Again, this all is predicated on the Braves being within 2-5 games of first place come mid-July and they are at least 5 games over 500.

[Heyward]

Which is really smart. Teams get in big trouble when they perceive themselves much better or worse than they actually are.

Depends.

Trading some spare parts for a controllable bullpen arm wouldnt be bad if they are still in contention.

[VirginiaBrave]

I think it's stupid to say we can't win the division. There's any number of things that could go our way that could tip the scale in our favor. This season reminds me of 2005.

1991 is more of a comparison...

[jpx7]

The Braves have aggregated a TREMENDOUS amount of young talent to the point where getting a marginal piece for Grilli/Johnson is negligable.

It's never enough. (And that was literally one of the premises of the tear-down.)

[Heyward]

It's never enough. (And that was literally one of the premises of the tear-down.)

You cant trade every piece for something minor just to do it.

If a team makes a strong offer for someone, then yeah, i dont think this is the year to somewhat go for it.

I still think we'll fade.

Guess we'll see though.

[gilesfan]

The Braves in my estimation have played anywhere from 4-8 games over 500 under the assumption they have an average pen.

This is wrong, btw

[Pugfan]

This is wrong, btw

more like 2 games better with an average pen.

[Runnin]

.500 BABY!
http://rack.1.mshcdn.com/media/ZgkyMDEzLzA3LzA1LzBhL2V4Y2l0ZWRiYWJ5LjlhZWY3LmdpZg pwCXRodW1iCTEyMDB4OTYwMD4/f01f5d34/cc5/excited-baby.gif

[thethe]

This is wrong, btw

I dont believe so based on what I've seen. Even if you just take the obvious nationals game that's 2 games over 500 right there. There are many other obvious options as well.

[gilesfan]

An average pen blows leads too. As do great ones.

[nsacpi]

If you replace the pen guys with negative WAR with replacement level guys, you gain 1 win. If you add Stults and Cahill to the group, it gets you a total of 2 wins.

Fixing the pen would help for the rest of the season. But at the end of the day, that might end up just off-setting a normalization of our luck with hitting with RISP and pinch hitting (a shout out to our latest talisman Mr Ciriaco).

[thethe]

An average pen blows leads too. As do great ones.

And there are still plenty of blown saves to go around from this year.

[sturg33]

The Braves have lost 3 games this year when they scored 8 runs... They lost 2 during the previous 5 years.

ALL HAIL WREN

[thethe]

The Braves have lost 3 games this year when they scored 8 runs... They lost 2 during the previous 5 years.

ALL HAIL WREN

Sorry the rebuild didn't go absolutely perfect. We will just have to deal with going from having one of the worst farm systems in basball to one of the best while having a better offense and about the same starting pitching.

I guess it was only 90% perfect. Horrible work by the braintrust.

[sturg33]

Sorry the rebuild didn't go absolutely perfect. We will just have to deal with going from having one of the worst farm systems in basball to one of the best while having a better offense and about the same starting pitching.

I guess it was only 90% perfect. Horrible work by the braintrust.

Holy **** dude it was a joke. I was making a point in your favor, btw

[thethe]

Let's look at the actual numbers. Before today the Braves were 19-9 in games they led entering the sixth inning. That's a winning % of .679 as compared to the NL average of .829, which would translate to 23-5, so we'd be minus 4 by that analysis. BUT when you also consider games tied after six innings the Braves are .632 (12-7) compared to the league average of .505, so they are Plus three in that category. They are right on the league average of a 3-19 record in games trailing after six innings.

I have I included games tied entering each inning and games trailing entering each inning because it seems to me the bullpen is also a major factor in the outcome of those games.

So for the sixth innings the Braves are a net Minus 1 compared to the NL average (Minus four in games led, plus three in games tied and net zero on games behind)

If the beginning of the seventh inning is your benchmark the Braves are net minus 2 (Minus five, plus three, and zero).

If the beginning of the eighth inning is your benchmark the Braves are net plus 1 (minus 2, plus 2, plus 1)

If the beginning of the ninth inning is your benchmark, the Braves are net minus 1 (minus 1, minus 1, plus 1)

Food for thought, anyway.

The whole point is that the offense would be exactly the same but the bullpen would be better. So any of their performances relative to the league are irrelevant in my mind. You would have the same exact production offensively and from the starting pitching. The only difference would be that the bullpen would be better than the LEAGUE WORST. That would absolutely translate to move wins.

[thethe]

Holy **** dude it was a joke. I was making a point in your favor, btw

Can't tell when you are joking or not when it comes to Hart v Wren.

If thats the case then I'm sorry.

[gilesfan]

And there are still plenty of blown saves to go around from this year.

Your logic is wrong. Sorry, but it just is. You cannot look at it like that or you are simply saying ridiculous stuff like Heyward.

"Hey, if we maintained the lead in all the games we've managed to win so far and never blow a save, surely we are in first place by five games! All we have to do is fix the pen!"

A) they goes for just about every team
B) the difference between the braves pen and an average one is really minimal. This is why random relief pitchers rarely get traded for much in July......they don't make the impact than fans typically think they do.

[thethe]

Your logic is wrong. Sorry, but it just is. You cannot look at it like that or you are simply saying ridiculous stuff like Heyward.

"Hey, if we maintained the lead in all the games we've managed to win so far and never blow a save, surely we are in first place by five games! All we have to do is fix the pen!"

A) they goes for just about every team
B) the difference between the braves pen and an average one is really minimal. This is why random relief pitchers rarely get traded for much in July......they don't make the impact than fans typically think they do.

So with all things remaining equal (offense/defense/starting pitching) you don't think the Braves have 2 more wins with an average pen?

[gilesfan]

Certainly no more than 2 wins. However, based on our rates, we have 3-4 more wins than we should have at this point so hard to argue we should have 2 more wins with an average pen.

[thethe]

Certainly no more than 2 wins. However, based on our rates, we have 3-4 more wins than we should have at this point so hard to argue we should have 2 more wins with an average pen.

But none of those other results are going to change. We are considering this because improving a bullpen is about the easiest thing to do mid-season.

The whole point is to consider where this team would be with an average pen and I think conservatively we can assume that they would be 4 games over 500 right now. Personally, I think slightly higher than that but I can understand the counter argument. This team has gotten better in almost every area over the course of the season other than in the pen. If the Braves are still within striking distance come mid July while being at least 5 games over 500 I think improving the pen needs to be considered at a reasonable cost.

[Nerfherders]

The pen has been better since the San Diego series (it couldnt get any worse really). I do agree we should have a couple more wins. There was a point there for a while where we were blowing 2 or 3 run leads in the 7th inning on a nightly basis.

So I would say this team, overall, is about where I expected them to be at the start of the season. The Mets are about where I expected them to be. I did not expect Washington to struggle this much. So we aren't a great team, maybe not even a good one, but we are only 2 games out. A couple bullpen arms and a catcher are not unreasonable things to go after if we can stay within 3 games come July. I really don't think any team in our division is going to win 90 games.

[JCarbo76]

So with all things remaining equal (offense/defense/starting pitching) you don't think the Braves have 2 more wins with an average pen?

Here's the thing: Yeah, we have blown some leads in the 6th and 7th inning, but so has every other team. The other thing is that our record in games TIED in the 6th and 7th innings is actually quite good, and the bullpen has a large (positive, in this case) influence in those games.

As I linked above, bbref has the Braves' bullpen at a minus 1.8 games compared to the average National League bullpen. I think that is about right. And as Gilesfan has pointed out (shoot me for THAT) the true effect of middle relief on game outcomes is pretty marginal.

That said, I would like to have a couple of extra wins now, and middle relief IS something that can be improved (maybe it already has been, if you look at recent games) cheaply.

To answer your question, though, --two extra wins is about right, but not four, six, or eight as some have postulated.

[thethe]

Here's the thing: Yeah, we have blown some leads in the 6th and 7th inning, but so has every other team. The other thing is that our record in games TIED in the 6th and 7th innings is actually quite good, and the bullpen has a large (positive, in this case) influence in those games.

As I linked above, bbref has the Braves' bullpen at a minus 1.8 games compared to the average National League bullpen. I think that is about right. And as Gilesfan has pointed out (shoot me for THAT) the true effect of middle relief on game outcomes is pretty marginal.

That said, I would like to have a couple of extra wins now, and middle relief IS something that can be improved (maybe it already has been, if you look at recent games) cheaply.

To answer your question, though, --two extra wins is about right, but not four, six, or eight as some have postulated.

I think it ranges from 2 to 4 games which is significant.

[thethe]

David O'Brien ‏@DOBrienAJC 28m28 minutes ago
Those who thought #Braves could lose 100: They'll need to go 27-65 rest of the way.

[gilesfan]

I think it ranges from 2 to 4 games which is significant.

what is your basis for 4 games?

[Braves1976]

David O'Brien ‏@DOBrienAJC 28m28 minutes ago
Those who thought #Braves could lose 100: They'll need to go 27-65 rest of the way.

So is DOB playing you in the movie thethe? JK. :)

[thethe]

what is your basis for 4 games?

Based on what I've seen of the bullpen blowing a ridiculous amount of games where we had more than a 1 run lead.

[gilesfan]

So you are just pulling it out of the air.

[thethe]

So you are just pulling it out of the air.

No, since I'm an actual Braves fan I have watched almost every game this year. Basically any Brave fan that has watched the team play this year would agree with me.

[gilesfan]

Several have already disagreed with you.

What fanbase doesn't say "we've blown some leads, if our bullpen was just better....."

[thethe]

Several have already disagreed with you.

What fanbase doesn't say "we've blown some leads, if our bullpen was just better....."

Braves have had hte worst bullpen in baseball this year. Its clear to anyone that doesn't feel like being a devils advocate in all instances that the Braves would have at the very least 2 more wins this year with just an average pen.

[chop2chip]

Braves have had hte worst bullpen in baseball this year. Its clear to anyone that doesn't feel like being a devils advocate in all instances that the Braves would have at the very least 2 more wins this year with just an average pen.
Well an average pen would still blow leads. Braves fans don't know what an average pen is because we have had probably the best pen in baseball since 2010.

But it's easily a 2 game difference like you said.

[thethe]

Well an average pen would still blow leads. Braves fans don't know what an average pen is because we have had probably the best pen in baseball since 2010.

But it's easily a 2 game difference like you said.

I really don't see how this can be debated other than the fact of someone who just hasn't watched the team at all this year.

Even just 2 games has the Braves 4 games over 500 tied with the Nationals. Personally, I think its closer to 4 games.

[gilesfan]

Braves have had hte worst bullpen in baseball this year. Its clear to anyone that doesn't feel like being a devils advocate in all instances that the Braves would have at the very least 2 more wins this year with just an average pen.

You are saying 2-4. 2 is probably the top end. (BBref has 1.7) The Braves haven't had the worst bullpen in the majors when you use win probability. The difference in the Braves pen and a really good one is 4 wins at this point.

You want to play strict results with the teams win/loss record then use hypotheticals with the bullpen. It doesn't make much sense. The team has been lucky win/loss wise despite a below average pen.

Right now, they are .500.
They would be 34-36 using pythag
They would be 31-39 using equivalent runs

You are essentially wanting to say the Braves should be a first place team if they were lucky and had a great bullpen.

[gilesfan]

I really don't see how this can be debated other than the fact of someone who just hasn't watched the team at all this year.

Even just 2 games has the Braves 4 games over 500 tied with the Nationals. Personally, I think its closer to 4 games.

The point is you have no basis for this. It's just making stuff up.

[thethe]

You are saying 2-4. 2 is probably the top end. (BBref has 1.7) The Braves haven't had the worst bullpen in the majors when you use win probability. The difference in the Braves pen and a really good one is 4 wins at this point.

You want to play strict results with the teams win/loss record then use hypotheticals with the bullpen. It doesn't make much sense. The team has been lucky win/loss wise despite a below average pen.

Right now, they are .500.
They would be 34-36 using pythag
They would be 31-39 using equivalent runs

You are essentially wanting to say the Braves should be a first place team if they were lucky and had a great bullpen.

Everything else would remain the same. All their other results. The only difference would be a pen that has blown a ridiculous amount of games this year so far.

[gilesfan]

Everything else would remain the same. All their other results. The only difference would be a pen that has blown a ridiculous amount of games this year so far.

How many games has the average pen blown so far?

[thethe]

How many games has the average pen blown so far?

Less than the Braves have.

[gilesfan]

Less than the Braves have.

how many?

[thethe]

how many?

See above...

[chop2chip]

If you trust fWAR's evaluation of relievers (I definitely hate WAR for relievers), then the Braves are -0.2 below replacement with an average pen right around 1.7. Two games is solid guesstimate.

I hate WAR for pitchers in general, and especially for relief pitchers. I find it to be a futile effort to approximate what our record would be. We have lost two games based on Fredi keeping Teheran in the 8th inning because he simply can't trust our bullpen. How do you measure strategy adjustments?

[gilesfan]

See above...

I don't see where you discussed how many leads the average bullpen has blown.

[gilesfan]

If you trust fWAR's evaluation of relievers (I definitely hate WAR for relievers), then the Braves are -0.2 below replacement with an average pen right around 1.7. Two games is solid guesstimate.

I hate WAR for pitchers in general, and especially for relief pitchers. I find it to be a futile effort to approximate what our record would be. We have lost two games based on Fredi keeping Teheran in the 8th inning because he simply can't trust our bullpen. How do you measure strategy adjustments?

win probability is 1.7 below average; which I think is the most accurate measure.

[thethe]

If you trust fWAR's evaluation of relievers (I definitely hate WAR for relievers), then the Braves are -0.2 below replacement with an average pen right around 1.7. Two games is solid guesstimate.

I hate WAR for pitchers in general, and especially for relief pitchers. I find it to be a futile effort to approximate what our record would be. We have lost two games based on Fredi keeping Teheran in the 8th inning because he simply can't trust our bullpen. How do you measure strategy adjustments?

Or the aggregation impact of more pitchers needing to go on a daily basis because we can't get 3 damn outs per pitcher?

[chop2chip]

Or the aggregation impact of more pitchers needing to go on a daily basis because we can't get 3 damn outs per pitcher?
Which is really odd because we have an above average setup/closer situation (I think).

I can't imagine what life would be like if The Bleeding Harts didn't scrap Grilli and Johnson off the bargain bin.

[sturg33]

Or the aggregation impact of more pitchers needing to go on a daily basis because we can't get 3 damn outs per pitcher?

Wouldn't that be reflected in the results?

[sturg33]

Which is really odd because he have an above average setup/closer situation (I think).

I can't imagine what life would be like if The Bleeding Harts didn't scrap Grilli and Johnson off the bargain bin.

I wouldn't call Grilli a bargain... 4-5M for a 38 year old reliever isn't cheap

[chop2chip]

I wouldn't call Grilli a bargain... 4-5M for a 38 year old reliever isn't cheap
4.2M for a closer who is on pace for almost 2 WAR is the very definition of successful bargain bin shopping.

Grilli certainly wasn't on the premium rack in the offseason.

[thethe]

How is it possible to not consider Grilli a bargain so far this season?

[sturg33]

4.2M for a closer who is on pace for almost 2 WAR is the very definition of successful bargain bin shopping.

Grilli certainly wasn't on the premium rack in the offseason.

Agreed... but he wasn't signed to be a closer. $4M for his is about all I'd pay considering his age and health risk. Not syaing it hasn't been a good deal.

Jim Johnson was a bargain

[sturg33]

How is it possible to not consider Grilli a bargain so far this season?

My bad... didn't stick to the script.

ALL HAIL HART

[thethe]

Agreed... but he wasn't signed to be a closer. $4M for his is about all I'd pay considering his age and health risk. Not syaing it hasn't been a good deal.

Jim Johnson was a bargain

Grilli and Johnson were signed because the Braves had eyes to trade Kimbrel all offseason.

[thethe]

My bad... didn't stick to the script.

ALL HAIL HART

You stuck to yours where every move is looked at as potentially bad first but need rigorous amount of convincing to realize how good they are.

[chop2chip]

Agreed... but he wasn't signed to be a closer. $4M for his is about all I'd pay considering his age and health risk. Not syaing it hasn't been a good deal.

Jim Johnson was a bargainWhat I meant by bargain bin shopping is going after players that were considered damaged/broken/etc. that other teams didn't care to pay a premium for. I think signing a 38 year old reliever would qualify under that description.

[chop2chip]

Grilli and Johnson were signed because the Braves had eyes to trade Kimbrel all offseason.
Or they were simply decent values that would have worked even if Kimbrel were still here. Grilli didn't need the closer role to continue his 5+ year run of outstanding peripherals.

[thethe]

Or they were simply decent values that would have worked even if Kimbrel were still here. Grilli didn't need the closer role to continue his 5+ year run of outstanding peripherals.

I think the writing was on the wall with the Braves bringing in two relievers that had closer experience. The plans for the rebuild were made in November of 2014. No need for an expensive closer in a rebuild .

[chop2chip]

I think the writing was on the wall with the Braves bringing in two relievers that had closer experience. The plans for the rebuild were made in November of 2014. No need for an expensive closer in a rebuild .

Definitely possible. In hindsight it even appears obvious that that was the plan.

My point is that even if Grilli was pitching the 7th inning he would have justified the contract he was given. That thread would be a fun one to bump to read the responses everyone had at the time. I remember that one being panned (Jim Johnson was even worse).