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View Full Version : Buster Olney: Braves won't let 2011 happen again



thethe
08-05-2013, 11:33 AM
Note: This is an ESPN article from Buster Olney. The remaining portion of the article not pertaining to the Braves can be found here: http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/post/_/id/2745

PHILADELPHIA -- The Atlanta Braves wake up this morning with a lead of 12 1/2 games in the National League East, and if they win just one of three games in Washington in the series that starts tonight, the division race may be all but over. Now, you’ll probably never get anybody in the Braves organization to talk about their position of strength, about a fait accompli, given their historic late-season collapse of 2011.

But they are burying their NL East brethren, have only seven games remaining against teams with records over .500 the rest of the season, and probably will face the Marlins after they shut down Jose Fernandez -- whom the Braves have not seen this year, through a bit of good fortune -- and will see the Mets at a time when they’ll be pulling the reins back on Matt Harvey.

The Braves’ magic number to clinch is down to 39, their winning streak is at 10 games and they are playing with staggering confidence. As they thumped Cliff Lee with some big, aggressive swings Sunday night, their dugout chatter was at high pitch: When Chris Johnson slammed a two-run single in the first inning, and when Justin Upton and Jason Heyward and B.J. Upton smoked line drives, the other Braves would start shouting -- for not only the hit, it seemed, but the aggression. Atlanta has the best defensive shortstop in baseball in Andrelton Simmons, they have the best closer in Craig Kimbrel, they have a deep corps of setup men, and they have a deep lineup that, through all of the strikeouts, will relentlessly pressure opposing pitchers.

"We are gooood," said one Atlanta veteran, using the word in a way so that he was impressed rather than bragging.

If the Braves continue to play this well -- and given the depth of their roster, improved by deals by GM Frank Wren, and the relative easiness of their remaining schedule and travel, there’s no reason why this can’t continue -- they should have a lot of time to shape their team for the postseason.

1. They’ll have time to get B.J. Upton right-- and his opposite-field extra-base hit Sunday was a sign that he may be waiting on the ball again.

2. They can rest their bullpen. In 2011, their relievers wore down and had nothing left by the end of September. This year, Fredi Gonzalez should be able to rest the hard-working Luis Avilan in the final weeks of the season; the same with the newly acquired Scott Downs. And they can basically regulate Kimbrel’s appearances, at a time when he’s throwing the ball exceptionally well: He has allowed one run in his past 30 appearances.

3. Brian McCann was hurt at the outset of this season and began the year on the disabled list, so he’s relatively fresh, and Gonzalez can continue to give him regular time off.

4. The lead gives them the opportunity to deal with Julio Teheran’s innings count from a position of strength. Over his past 11 starts, Teheran has allowed 17 earned runs in 68 innings, for a 2.25 ERA, with 15 walks and 62 strikeouts. He has thrown 131 innings so far this year and is fast approaching his career high of 164 1/3 innings, established in 2011. Knowing that they are likely to be in the postseason, the Braves could back up Teheran’s starts, or skip him once or twice, or limit him to five or six innings, as they have in some starts in the second half.

5. They could line up their playoff rotation well in advance of the playoffs, tuning up Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen in the way they do at the end of spring training.

6. They can give their bench guys, from Evan Gattis to the currently disabled Jordan Schafer and Reed Johnson plenty of at-bats in September.

Gonzalez walked away from the 2011 collapse changed as a manager, believing that he would be more open to changes in the future, and naturally scarred. So I’m sure he would run from the questions of how the big lead will help his decision-making, and he would reflexively find a piece of wood to knock on for good luck.

But the Braves are rolling, without any speed bumps in sight.

thethe
08-05-2013, 11:34 AM
It really is just shaping up to be the perfect season thus far. Being able to line up everything for the postseason is a huge advantage. The bullpen is shaping up to be stout from innigs 7-9 and our starters seemingly always go 6 innings.

I think Beachy is the key....if he regains his 2012 early season form this could be a special season to remember forever!

Mrs. Meta
08-05-2013, 11:38 AM
It really is just shaping up to be the perfect season thus far. Being able to line up everything for the postseason is a huge advantage. The bullpen is shaping up to be stout from innigs 7-9 and our starters seemingly always go 6 innings.

I think Beachy is the key....if he regains his 2012 early season form this could be a special season to remember forever!

Just give me a playoff series victory n I'm good :icwudt:

nsacpi
08-05-2013, 11:41 AM
It really is just shaping up to be the perfect season thus far. Being able to line up everything for the postseason is a huge advantage. The bullpen is shaping up to be stout from innigs 7-9 and our starters seemingly always go 6 innings.

I think Beachy is the key....if he regains his 2012 early season form this could be a special season to remember forever!

It has been a special season so far. And my fondest memories so far were those winter nights when we would wait for the Venezuelan League box scores to get updated to see what Gattis was doing. Good times.

thethe
08-05-2013, 11:44 AM
Just give me a playoff series victory n I'm good :icwudt:

I'm going to dream bigger.

The scary thing is that I think this team can be even better. I don't believe we have seen the best of Beachy or both Uptons.

Its coming!!!

The Chosen One
08-05-2013, 11:44 AM
I just want to exorcise our demons and just make it past the first round.

That's all I really want.

If we make it to the NLCS and get swept, I won't be as bummed as before. I will be stoked if we get over the hump and take the NLDS though.

50PoundHead
08-05-2013, 11:46 AM
I will feel good if we can enter September with a double-digit lead and bring up three or four pitchers from AAA to eat some "dead innings" and give Gonzalez the opportunity to keep everyone sharp while giving them adequate rest.

rico43
08-05-2013, 11:49 AM
Maybe, just maybe, the Braves' fans will turn out in numbers large enough for the club to be able to keep McCann.

Heyward
08-05-2013, 11:52 AM
Just give me a playoff series victory n I'm good :icwudt:

This.

Heyward
08-05-2013, 11:52 AM
Maybe, just maybe, the Braves' fans will turn out in numbers large enough for the club to be able to keep McCann.

We have plenty of money to keep him, all a matter if he will take a little discount to stay.

thethe
08-05-2013, 11:54 AM
Maybe, just maybe, the Braves' fans will turn out in numbers large enough for the club to be able to keep McCann.

Braves are averaging 2530 more fans per game so far this year. Thats a big difference and a playoff run could be HUGE.

Plus the added TV revenues and I think keeping Mac seems more and more like a realistic possibility.

sturg33
08-05-2013, 12:13 PM
Re-signing Mac is a must. I've lost faith in Gattis being a serviceable everyday player

Javyz1fan
08-05-2013, 05:20 PM
I just hope they continue to go about their business and take it one series at a time. If they manage that, they should be fine.

I would really like to go to the NLDS this year. I'm nowhere near Atlanta, and time off in October had always been an issue for me. So, naturally, the first time in my life I managed to get playoff tickets was 2011. :Wall:

Braves1976
08-05-2013, 05:23 PM
I've lost faith in Gattis being a serviceable everyday player

Anyone that loses faith in Gattis this fast I'd question as ever truly having it.

JohnAdcox
08-05-2013, 05:44 PM
It has been a special season so far. And my fondest memories so far were those winter nights when we would wait for the Venezuelan League box scores to get updated to see what Gattis was doing. Good times.

This! And scouring YouTube with the help of Google translate to see if there was video!

sturg33
08-05-2013, 08:09 PM
Anyone that loses faith in Gattis this fast I'd question as ever truly having it.

To be fair - I was skeptical from the start. I fell in love with long ball for a brief time, but it is clear as day the kid is an easy out until he learns some patience at the plate.

GovClintonTyree
08-05-2013, 09:01 PM
Re-signing Mac is a must. I've lost faith in Gattis being a serviceable everyday player

Yeah, he's had a bad week.

chopdrew
08-05-2013, 09:29 PM
Yeah, he's had a bad week.

They're not re-signing McCann. Nor should they. Y'all remove your heads from your southern orifices...

CyYoung31
08-05-2013, 09:32 PM
They're not re-signing McCann. Nor should they. Y'all remove your heads from your southern orifices...

What?

thethe
08-05-2013, 09:33 PM
I actually believe its highly probably that Mac will be back at this point. Hopefully they can backload some of Freeman/Heyward money.

jpx7
08-05-2013, 09:39 PM
They're not re-signing McCann. Nor should they. Y'all remove your heads from your southern orifices...


What?

Seconded.

Mrs. Meta
08-05-2013, 09:42 PM
They're not re-signing McCann. Nor should they. Y'all remove your heads from your southern orifices...

http://troll.me/images/lil-jon/okay.jpg

cajunrevenge
08-05-2013, 09:58 PM
According to my amateur payroll projections we are around 90-95 million next year without McCann. From what Wren has said the budget is set at the revenue they project the Braves to take in. We already know that every team is getting around 25 million more in revenue from the new TV deals. I assume Obama is gonna take a big cut of that money but that should easily leave 15+ million more in revenue to add to payroll. I am okay with giving McCann 4-5 years at 15 million per. It might be overpaying but I think we have to place some value in the clubhouse presence and fan favorite of McCann. I like Gattis but he can still get 300-400 at bats a year backing up 1B/C/OF and pinch hitting.

NinersSBChamps
08-05-2013, 10:07 PM
I'm going to dream bigger.

The scary thing is that I think this team can be even better. I don't believe we have seen the best of Beachy or both Uptons.

Its coming!!!
So 13 home runs in April and basically dominating for thirty days isn't the best of Justin Upton?

chipchildress
08-06-2013, 07:38 AM
Problem with the Braves is that these guys are so damn streaky. You all know well and good that Heyward and the Uptons will all happen to be in the middle of a 1-60 slump was they head into the division series.

jpx7
08-06-2013, 10:37 AM
Problem with baseball players is that those guys are so damn streaky.

Fixed.