8/11/2015 TUESDAY MINORS THREAD .... BBA's Best Tools for 2015

[rico43]

CLASS AAA IL:
Eury Perez, Gwinnett: Fastest Baserunner
Jose Peraza, Gwinnett: Best Baserunner

ADVANCED A CAROLINA LEAGUE:
Matt Marksberry, Carolina: Best Reliever
Johan Camargo, Carolina: Best Defensive SS
Connor Lien, Carolina: Best Defensive OF

CLASS A SAL:
Ozzie Albies, Rome: Best Batting Prospect

NATIONAL LEAGUE:
Julio Teheran, Atlanta: Best Pickoff Move
Andreton Simmons, Atlanta: Best Defensive SS, Best INF Arm

MOVES:
Ronald Acuna from GCL Braves to Danville
RHP Monte' Reese assigned to GCL Braves


THURSDAY SCHEDULE

ALL TIMES EDT

CLASS AAA

Charlotte 3, Gwinnett 2

LP: Jenkins (3-3) 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K.
Bethancourt 2-4, 2B, R; Kazmar 3-4, RBI; Hunter 2-4, R.

CLASS AA

Mississippi 10, Biloxi 3

WP: Sims (1-2) 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K.
Lipka 2-4, 2 R, 2B, HR (2nd), 3 RBI; Ahrens 3-5, 2 R, HR (8th), RBI; Landoni 1-5, HR (1st), 2 RBI; Schlehuber 3-4. 2B, R, 2 RBI.

ADVANCED CLASS A

Wilmington 2, Carolina 1 (12)

SP: Webster 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.
LP: Jackson (3-1) 2.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K.
Lien 2-6, Schrader 2-6; Franco 1-2, R, 3 BB.

CLASS A

Savannah 3, Rome 0

LP: Caicedo (3-7) 5 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K.
Marte 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 K.
Gaylor 1-4. Only 2 hits for Rome.

SHORT-SEASON

DSL Cubs 7, DSL Braves 4

SP: F. Gil 2.2 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K.
LP: Iriarte (3-3) 2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 0 K.
Ventura 0-3, R, BB, 2 SB; Aquino 1-1, 3B, RBI; Michel 1-3, R, RBI.

Game One
Danville 5, Princeton 3 (7)

SP: Weigel 4 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K.
WP: Custred (1-0) 3 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K.
Hoekstra 1-2, 2 R, HR (1st), RBI; Riley 1-3, HR (2nd), RBI; Ellison 1-3, 2B, R, RBI.

Game Two
Princeton 4, Danville 1 (7)

LP: Cordero (0-2) 4.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K.
Hoekstra 2-3, 2 SB.

GCL Braves 8, GCL Yankees 4

SP: Jh. Martinez 4 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K.
WP: Matos (2-1) 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K.
K. Josephina 4-5, 3B, 2 R; Pina 3-4, 2B, R, RBI; Keller 2-4, 2 RBI, BB.

[Tapate50]

Tuesday maybe?

[CJ9]

Looks like Ronald Acuna has been promoted to Danville.

[chop2chip]

Tuesday maybe?I wish it was Thursday. I wish it more than anything

[yeezus]

I wish it was Thursday. I wish it more than anything

more than friday or saturday?

[50PoundHead]

Big day for IF Kevin Josephina. He was a featured signing in 2013 along with Albies and Berrios. I think he's been injured a bit, thus the shortened seasons for him.

[nsacpi]

Looks like Ronald Acuna has been promoted to Danville.

One of our better signings for the price in the last international signing period. Just 100K.

[CJ9]

Austin Riley homered again for Danville.

[ramadon101]

Austin Riley homered again for Danville.

Ho hum. Another day at the office for Austin. Glad to see him back in the lineup too

[smootness]

Riley also walked again. 2 HR, 1 3B, 3 2B, 6 BB in 7 games at Danville. I would seriously consider promoting him to Rome to end the year. Probably wouldn't, but he is obviously ahead of the game in rookie ball.

There's obviously still reason for caution, but this could turn out to be one of our best picks ever.

[thethe]

Riley also walked again. 2 HR, 1 3B, 3 2B, 6 BB in 7 games at Danville. I would seriously consider promoting him to Rome to end the year. Probably wouldn't, but he is obviously ahead of the game in rookie ball.

There's obviously still reason for caution, but this could turn out to be one of our best picks ever.

Him coupled with what Allard might be and you could be looking at one of our best drafts.

[mqt]

Anybody know why Soroka didn't pitch?

[smootness]

Anybody know why Soroka didn't pitch?

He pitched on 8/7, so I'm guessing they just scheduled him for the 5th game after, but because of the double header, that game actually came 4 days later.

So I'm guessing he starts tomorrow, or whenever Danville's next game is.

[smootness]

Good start from Sims tonight, solid one from Jenkins as well. Bethancourt 1-3.

[KB21]

Riley also walked again. 2 HR, 1 3B, 3 2B, 6 BB in 7 games at Danville. I would seriously consider promoting him to Rome to end the year. Probably wouldn't, but he is obviously ahead of the game in rookie ball.

There's obviously still reason for caution, but this could turn out to be one of our best picks ever.

Dave O'Brien tweeted out today that a top scout has told him that he believes Austin is the Braves top position prospect at this time.

[KB21]

Him coupled with what Allard might be and you could be looking at one of our best drafts.

Don't sleep on Bradley Keller. He's a guy with some loud tools and is performing very well in rookie league.

[nsacpi]

This year's draft (plus the international signings) could turn out to be remarkable. Many players having very good debuts but being overshadowed by others.

[Hudson2]

Add in Fried, a possible to pick this year, and the possible top international picks next year and we'll have a crazy farm system next year.

[smootness]

Add in Fried, a possible to pick this year, and the possible top international picks next year and we'll have a crazy farm system next year.

There's no doubt that when looking 2-3 years down the road, it's tough not to get very excited. Prospects are volatile and there's basically no chance everybody progresses ideally, but at the start of 2017, if everything goes to plan, we'll still have the following guys and potentially at these levels:

Albies - AA/AAA, possibly close to graduation
Fried - AAA, possibly close
D. Peterson - AAA
Ruiz - AAA, ready for MLB hopefully
Sims - AAA, ready for MLB hopefully
Davidson - AA/AAA
Toussaint - AA/AAA
Sanchez - AA
Allard - AA
Riley - AA
Soroka - AA
Yepez - A+/AA
Herbert - A+/AAA
Acuna - A+
Cruz - A
Pache - A
Maitan - rookie/A

Add in the potential of guys like Guardado and Keller, along with next year's draft picks and other international signings, and the potential is there to just be incredibly flush with talent. Obviously every organization can point to recent draftees and project like this, but nobody else has this kind of top-end talent that will still be in the farm system in 2 years.

You're talking about a top 5 system right now that will likely only see 3 of its current top 30 (Wisler, Banuelos, Jenkins) and the possibility of 1 or 2 more (Albies, Fried, maybe a Ruiz or Sims) come out of the system by mid season 2017. And in that span, we'll have a top 10 pick, another first-rounder in 2016, probably another decent pick in 2017, and all the international signings next year.

[nsacpi]

If I were to pick a future team based upon players currently in the system with the most upside, it would look like this:

Catcher--Herbert
First--Freeman
Second--Albies
Short--Simmons
Third--Riley
Left--Yepez (I know he hasn't played there yet)
Center--Ventura
Right--Acuna

Starter--Allard
Starter--Soroka
Starter--Miller
Starter--Teheran
Starter--Wisler

Closer--Vizcaino
Rest of Pen--Fried, Banuelos, Simmons, Sims, Foltynevich, Toussaint

Of course, injuries and other bad things will happen along the way. But there are some pretty good Plan B's within the system as well.

I think there will be a strong temptation to accelerate the rebuild by trading out of the group currently aged 17-18.

[Heyward]

Riley also walked again. 2 HR, 1 3B, 3 2B, 6 BB in 7 games at Danville. I would seriously consider promoting him to Rome to end the year. Probably wouldn't, but he is obviously ahead of the game in rookie ball.

There's obviously still reason for caution, but this could turn out to be one of our best picks ever.

Yeah and you didnt like the pick when it was made.

[smootness]

Yeah and you didnt like the pick when it was made.

I had two primary issues with the pick:

1) It was our first bat in a draft in which I wanted us to go heavy on bats, yet even he was a possible pitcher. I already knew quite a bit about him and knew a lot of people liked him more as a pitcher, so I worried we would use him on the mound.

2) I'm a huge Mississippi State fan and was bummed we wouldn't be getting him.

Yes, I did say it was a bit of a reach based on rankings. And I cared too much about that during the draft. I wasn't as concerned about that with Riley as I was with Soroka (which also looks to not be the case), and I was wrong on that.

I'm not sure what that has to do with anything. I was skeptical of the pick, and I was wrong. Riley has killed it, and I love having him in the system. It happens. I'm a human being, one who will always give an opinion, even if it turns out to be stupid because I don't have the knowledge I should have.

[Garmel]

Bethancourt had another good night at the plate. 2-4 with a double.

[sturg33]

I had two primary issues with the pick:

1) It was our first bat in a draft in which I wanted us to go heavy on bats, yet even he was a possible pitcher. I already knew quite a bit about him and knew a lot of people liked him more as a pitcher, so I worried we would use him on the mound.

2) I'm a huge Mississippi State fan and was bummed we wouldn't be getting him.

Yes, I did say it was a bit of a reach based on rankings. And I cared too much about that during the draft. I wasn't as concerned about that with Riley as I was with Soroka (which also looks to not be the case), and I was wrong on that.

I'm not sure what that has to do with anything. I was skeptical of the pick, and I was wrong. Riley has killed it, and I love having him in the system. It happens. I'm a human being, one who will always give an opinion, even if it turns out to be stupid because I don't have the knowledge I should have.

yeah but hayward totally burned you though

[Heyward]

yeah but hayward totally burned you though

It's a joke and at least spell my name right.

[Heyward]

Bethancourt had another good night at the plate. 2-4 with a double.

Wish they'd give him a chance but prolly not.

[auyushu]

Yes, I did say it was a bit of a reach based on rankings. And I cared too much about that during the draft. I wasn't as concerned about that with Riley as I was with Soroka (which also looks to not be the case), and I was wrong on that.

I'm not sure what that has to do with anything. I was skeptical of the pick, and I was wrong. Riley has killed it, and I love having him in the system. It happens. I'm a human being, one who will always give an opinion, even if it turns out to be stupid because I don't have the knowledge I should have.

Yeah, I don't think too many folks had a problem drafting Riley, just more when we picked him. I'd say many more folks were annoyed by the Soroka pick (myself included). I would have much rather seen us draft Ke'Bryan Hayes, then Chris Betts, then grab Riley with our 4th pick. And that should have been easily doable.

Soroka has looked excellent so far however, and Herbert is a solid C prospect as well, so can't really complain even though I'd still prefer the above scenario.

[Deester11]

Wish they'd give him a chance but prolly not.im with you on this.

[dak]

I'd say many more folks were annoyed by the Soroka pick (myself included).

I'm with you. The Soroka and Minter picks were my biggest concerns. So far, Soroka making me look very foolish.

[Tapate50]

Man, Riley really just dominating right out of the gate.

Saw a Kiley McDaniel prospect chat yesterday that said he would take Albies out of the big 3 SS prospects in the minors right now. Said he should rank anywhere from 20-50 I think for all three.

Sims has REALLY responded to the promotion. Makes one wonder what he was working on at the lower level?

[50PoundHead]

Yeah, I don't think too many folks had a problem drafting Riley, just more when we picked him. I'd say many more folks were annoyed by the Soroka pick (myself included). I would have much rather seen us draft Ke'Bryan Hayes, then Chris Betts, then grab Riley with our 4th pick. And that should have been easily doable.

Soroka has looked excellent so far however, and Herbert is a solid C prospect as well, so can't really complain even though I'd still prefer the above scenario.

The problem with your scenario is that we wouldn't have been able to sign them all unless every pick after the guys you mention would have agreed to sign well below slot.

[thethe]

The problem with your scenario is that we wouldn't have been able to sign them all unless every pick after the guys you mention would have agreed to sign well below slot.

This point is always overlooked and dismissed no matter how many times it's brought up 50. Braves were very deliberate with their draft.

[Deester11]

The problem with your scenario is that we wouldn't have been able to sign them all unless every pick after the guys you mention would have agreed to sign well below slot. Spot on analysis and the Riley pick was a due diligence thing. The new scouting department makeover has been refreshing.

[thethe]

Spot on analysis and the Riley pick was a due diligence thing. The new scouting department makeover has been refreshing.

It was a travesty that Roy Clark was allowed to be pushed out of this organization. That is not just an indictment on Wren but JS as well. Thankfully he came back.

[sturg33]

The problem with your scenario is that we wouldn't have been able to sign them all unless every pick after the guys you mention would have agreed to sign well below slot.

I frankly don't know how everything works with the slot system... but I would have rather taken higher upside picks and forgone some signings... In other words, sign 8/10 higher upside players rather than the 10/10 we did.

I wanted Cameron or Hayes

[Chico]

I frankly don't know how everything works with the slot system... but I would have rather taken higher upside picks and forgone some signings... In other words, sign 8/10 higher upside players rather than the 10/10 we did.

I wanted Cameron or Hayes

This is why I never make knee jerk reactions on the draft. There are so many things I don't know, and it's impossible to truly grade out all these kids. The NFL draft is way more predictable and easier to study than MLB.

[50PoundHead]

I frankly don't know how everything works with the slot system... but I would have rather taken higher upside picks and forgone some signings... In other words, sign 8/10 higher upside players rather than the 10/10 we did.

I wanted Cameron or Hayes

And some teams do that. The problem with Cameron is that at $4 MM, he would absorbed a lot of space we didn't have. He really only fit with the Astros, who had $17 MM to spread around. As for Hayes, I guess we'll have to see how it plays out. Riley has been impressive thus far, but it's way early for both of these guys.

[sturg33]

And some teams do that. The problem with Cameron is that at $4 MM, he would absorbed a lot of space we didn't have. He really only fit with the Astros, who had $17 MM to spread around. As for Hayes, I guess we'll have to see how it plays out. Riley has been impressive thus far, but it's way early for both of these guys.

I have no issue with the Riley pick. I wanted more bats

[UNCBlue012]

Bethancourt had another good night at the plate. 2-4 with a double.

I don't see a reason not too. We aren't in the race and as much as I like AJ, he's not our guy of the future. Bring this dude up and see what he can do because he's actually hitting for some power and walking right now.

[UNCBlue012]

Man, Riley really just dominating right out of the gate.

Saw a Kiley McDaniel prospect chat yesterday that said he would take Albies out of the big 3 SS prospects in the minors right now. Said he should rank anywhere from 20-50 I think for all three.

Sims has REALLY responded to the promotion. Makes one wonder what he was working on at the lower level?

I wondered about that. Julio was awful in Triple-A for the most part but it came out that he was working on things. Sims could be as well. Would be HUGE if he was the guy a lot of us originally thought.

[thethe]

Never understood why people were so quick to jump off the Sims bandwagon.

[clvclv]

Never understood why people were so quick to jump off the Sims bandwagon.

Let's be a little careful about trying to load that train up too quickly. His WHIP still sits at 1.59, and he's walking 6 batters/9 IP for the season.

He's had a couple fairly decent starts - it's not like some light clicked on and he's suddenly turned the corner and become a Top 100 prospect again. Hursh has similar WHIP and K/BB numbers in 2015.

[sturg33]

Never understood why people were so quick to jump off the Sims bandwagon.

Because he was performing horribly?

He's improved his K-rate somewhat. And k-rate is what I care about the most in the minors. But he's not mowing people down either

[thethe]

Because he was performing horribly?

He's improved his K-rate somewhat. And k-rate is what I care about the most in the minors. But he's not mowing people down either

Pitchers progress at different rates. We all scout sat lines way too much. Reports from guys like deester are more valueable. He wasn't a fan of Sims so I heavily weighted his input as hr has seen him pitch. We never know what the coaches are asking the pitchers to work on.

[sturg33]

Pitchers progress at different rates. We all scout sat lines way too much. Reports from guys like deester are more valueable. He wasn't a fan of Sims so I heavily weighted his input as hr has seen him pitch. We never know what the coaches are asking the pitchers to work on.

You have to put some credibility in actual performance. So far, Simms hasn't been good.

[thethe]

You have to put some credibility in actual performance. So far, Simms hasn't been good.

He has always maintained a good age to level ratio. Yes, at some point they need to perform. Sims has already and it's still too early to hold him to thatbstandard.

[Preacher]

I frankly don't know how everything works with the slot system... but I would have rather taken higher upside picks and forgone some signings... In other words, sign 8/10 higher upside players rather than the 10/10 we did.

I wanted Cameron or Hayes

If you wanted Cameron you would be punting on a lot more than 2 other draft picks -- maybe that's still what you wanted to do, but it would have meant drafting under slot guys at several spots in the top 10 - and then I have a feeling you'd complain about that too.

Just for perspective
Riley+Herbert+Guardado+Graham (our 3-6 picks) signed for just over 4 million total. 4089500.

Would you rather have - Cameron or Riley/Herbert/Guardado/Graham? Its fine if you'd still rather have Cameron, but people act like the Braves could have gotten all of this premium talent and just punted on the 8th pick or something, its silly.

[zbhargrove]

I frankly don't know how everything works with the slot system... but I would have rather taken higher upside picks and forgone some signings... In other words, sign 8/10 higher upside players rather than the 10/10 we did.

I wanted Cameron or Hayes


Well it's turning out that the picks we made have quite a bit of upside thus far. So maybe quality scouting is better than article rankings?

[clvclv]

He has always maintained a good age to level ratio. Yes, at some point they need to perform. Sims has already and it's still too early to hold him to thatbstandard.

18 good starts at Rome in 2013 aside, Sims has never actually had much of a track record of "performing". I don't think anyone's given up on him, but he still struggles to throw strikes, and many of the ones he does throw tend to get hit. He's been working on things for two years and doesn't appear to be improving much. His developmental curve looks much more like Hursh's than Teheran's at this point. Julio never struggled like this, even when he was working on things - at Sims' age, Teheran was working on those at Gwinnett and was only walking half as many much more advanced hitters.

[Deester11]

Pitchers progress at different rates. We all scout sat lines way too much. Reports from guys like deester are more valueable. He wasn't a fan of Sims so I heavily weighted his input as hr has seen him pitch. We never know what the coaches are asking the pitchers to work on.
Thanks thethe, I have seen him quite a bit. I've always said the tools are there. I would post videos but the external HD doesn't jibe with my Mac. So I've resorted to Braxton videos and Albies. Anywho, I'm no scout but I've played and coached up to HS so you could say I'm inexact but a fan. I use the eyeball and a few stats so it's a mix for me. ERA, WINS,LOSSES don't really concern me. But here are my thoughts on Sims:

His fastball is special at times. He can blow it by just about anybody sitting around 93 upwards of 95-96 effectively. Secondary pitches can be good to above average mostly. Where he gets in trouble is adversity. I want more bulldog and I've seen more kitten AT TIMES. I like him a lot. I've seen Touki and Sanchez and they seem stoic when trouble happens. I'm not worried about Sims walks right now, but I think he's working on a full arsenal and command. Results do matter. He's been hot/cold early in his career and it puzzles me that his stuff hasn't translated.

I still think his talent alone makes him a top 10 Brave prospect, but I would also say he's gotta start getting consistent results. It can happen.

[smootness]

The thing I like about Sims is his K rate. It dropped last year at A+, which was a concern, but it is back up now and even higher at AA than it's ever been. That is a good sign and gives me hope.

The hit rate has also dropped at AA. The obvious problem is that a BB rate that wasn't good but wasn't a huge concern in 2013-2014 has now ballooned to 5.2% at A+ this year and 7.8% so far at AA. That's less of a concern for me than a low BB rate combined with a low K rate, but at 21, it's time to start getting that down while keeping the K's high.

Next year will be a big year for him. If he can come back to AA and keep his K rate high while dropping his BB rate to something like 4% or lower, then I think he will jump back into his old status as a really good prospect. The jury is still out, and he has work to do, but I'm actually higher on him now than I was after last year and the early part of this year.

[rico43]

The thing I like about Sims is his K rate. It dropped last year at A+, which was a concern, but it is back up now and even higher at AA than it's ever been. That is a good sign and gives me hope.

The hit rate has also dropped at AA. The obvious problem is that a BB rate that wasn't good but wasn't a huge concern in 2013-2014 has now ballooned to 5.2% at A+ this year and 7.8% so far at AA. That's less of a concern for me than a low BB rate combined with a low K rate, but at 21, it's time to start getting that down while keeping the K's high.

Next year will be a big year for him. If he can come back to AA and keep his K rate high while dropping his BB rate to something like 4% or lower, then I think he will jump back into his old status as a really good prospect. The jury is still out, and he has work to do, but I'm actually higher on him now than I was after last year and the early part of this year.

A valid factor might be that he missed a month after the bus crash?

[Braves1976]

A valid factor might be that he missed a month after the bus crash?

Yea, I imagine that has been a factor with Sims and a number of prospects effected by that crash.

[auyushu]

This point is always overlooked and dismissed no matter how many times it's brought up 50. Braves were very deliberate with their draft.



It's not overlooked or dismissed at all, it's just not as big a deal as you guys are trying to make out. K'Bryan Hayes signed for less money than Soroka, so we could have easily swapped those two. Chris Betts signed for slightly less than what the slot value for the 41st pick was, so that would have been 100 grand less than what RIley signed for. Riley signed for 1.6 mil, which would have been 475,000 more than the value of the 54th pick. So we would have had to save 375K during the rest of the draft.

So basically we'd have to just go cheap on 2 picks in the 5th-8th rounds to have made it work. Players in the first 3 rounds have a much higher success rate than guys in rounds 5 and up, so I'd much rather go big on high upside players in the early rounds. And several teams did just that in the past draft, signing players to 50,000 contracts with their picks in the 4th, 5th, and 6th rounds. It's a pretty common thing to do to save money to spend on higher upside prospects in the earlier rounds.

Either way, I'd rather have Hayes than Soroka just because we need high impact bats, and Hayes has been fantastic in the rookie leagues as well. But hopefully Soroka winds up being a high #2 starter or better and proves me wrong.

[thethe]

It's not overlooked or dismissed at all, it's just not as big a deal as you guys are trying to make out. K'Bryan Hayes signed for less money than Soroka, so we could have easily swapped those two. Chris Betts signed for slightly less than what the slot value for the 41st pick was, so that would have been 100 grand less than what RIley signed for. Riley signed for 1.6 mil, which would have been 475,000 more than the value of the 54th pick. So we would have had to save 375K during the rest of the draft.

So basically we'd have to just go cheap on 2 picks in the 5th-8th rounds to have made it work. Players in the first 3 rounds have a much higher success rate than guys in rounds 5 and up, so I'd much rather go big on high upside players in the early rounds. And several teams did just that in the past draft, signing players to 50,000 contracts with their picks in the 4th, 5th, and 6th rounds. It's a pretty common thing to do to save money to spend on higher upside prospects in the earlier rounds.

Either way, I'd rather have Hayes than Soroka just because we need high impact bats, and Hayes has been fantastic in the rookie leagues as well. But hopefully Soroka winds up being a high #2 starter or better and proves me wrong.

Not sure what isn't to love so far about who the Braves picked. Its crazy early to make any determination but I wouldn't have changed one pick thus far.

[auyushu]

Not sure what isn't to love so far about who the Braves picked. Its crazy early to make any determination but I wouldn't have changed one pick thus far.

K'Bryan Hayes is hitting .367/.462/.422/.884 in rookie ball with more walks than Ks and Chris Betts was the second best catcher prospect in the draft. Considering we have a gigantic need for impact bats not sure why it's hard to see people preferring us going a different route. Particularly when you factor in that our results when picking pitchers in the early rounds have been less than stellar under Clark's watch.

[sturg33]

K'Bryan Hayes is hitting .367/.462/.422/.884 in rookie ball with more walks than Ks and Chris Betts was the second best catcher prospect in the draft. Considering we have a gigantic need for impact bats not sure why it's hard to see people preferring us going a different route. Particularly when you factor in that our results when picking pitchers in the early rounds have been less than stellar under Clark's watch.

You know that if the Braves did what you're advocating they'd be slobbering all over it

[thethe]

K'Bryan Hayes is hitting .367/.462/.422/.884 in rookie ball with more walks than Ks and Chris Betts was the second best catcher prospect in the draft. Considering we have a gigantic need for impact bats not sure why it's hard to see people preferring us going a different route. Particularly when you factor in that our results when picking pitchers in the early rounds have been less than stellar under Clark's watch.

You are still assuming that we could have taken Riley at pick 54 and there is absolutely no guarantee that happens and then we don't have Soroka who has been awesome so far.

[auyushu]

You are still assuming that we could have taken Riley at pick 54 and there is absolutely no guarantee that happens and then we don't have Soroka who has been awesome so far.

The chances Riley wouldn't be there 13 picks later would be very slim. But either way I'd still rather have the potential high impact at 28 rather than Soroka, we have a bunch of guys that profile to be similar to Soroka already. And we've seen this past offseason and at the break this year how hard it is to trade for bats.

[thethe]

The chances Riley wouldn't be there 13 picks later would be very slim. But either way I'd still rather have the potential high impact at 28 rather than Soroka, we have a bunch of guys that profile to be similar to Soroka already. And we've seen this past offseason and at the break this year how hard it is to trade for bats.

A little research and I see that Betts had Tommy John surgery. Normally I wouldn't care aside from two positions. Catcher and SS. I hope he hits well enough to move to 1B.

Hayes looks good but the Braves got their bats in the international areana. That was the plan clearly.

[auyushu]

You know that if the Braves did what you're advocating they'd be slobbering all over it

Oh, I'm fully aware thethe would be taking the opposite viewpoint if the Braves had done what I said. He's going to flipflop to whatever the Braves do regardless of logic. It's just pretty funny to me that the Braves get defended for going pitching early consistently because "that's what they do well" when the truth is we haven't had much success going pitchers early at all in the past 20-25 years.

[thethe]

Oh, I'm fully aware thethe would be taking the opposite viewpoint if the Braves had done what I said. He's going to flipflop to whatever the Braves do regardless of logic. It's just pretty funny to me that the Braves get defended for going pitching early consistently because "that's what they do well" when the truth is we haven't had much success going pitchers early at all in the past 20-25 years.

Where a player is picked has little consequence on the future probability of success. That is the very definition of correlation and not causation.

[auyushu]

Hayes looks good but the Braves got their bats in the international areana. That was the plan clearly.

The bats we got in the international signings really don't profile as potential corner power bats types (though Pache could transform into one as he develops), the are more similar to the speed guys we already have in the pipeline. I'm glad we signed them, but they really didn't address our huge lack of power bats in the system. Riley helped with that, and Hayes would have helped more.

I have zero issues with Soroka as a prospect, but we really need to develop our own bats with our payroll level. It doesn't do us much good to draft impact pitchers in the early rounds and sign speed guys in the international signings if we are going to have to make two for one trades using them to get the bats with pop that we could draft ourselves in the early rounds.

[thethe]

The bats we got in the international signings really don't profile as potential corner power bats types (though Pache could transform into one as he develops), the are more similar to the speed guys we already have in the pipeline. I'm glad we signed them, but they really didn't address our huge lack of power bats in the system. Riley helped with that, and Hayes would have helped more.

I have zero issues with Soroka as a prospect, but we really need to develop our own bats with our payroll level. It doesn't do us much good to draft impact pitchers in the early rounds and sign speed guys in the international signings if we are going to have to make two for one trades using them to get the bats with pop that we could draft ourselves in the early rounds.

Well this kid we supposedly have locked up in Maiten sounds like he would be a top 5 pick in any of the last 5 drafts.

[auyushu]

Where a player is picked has little consequence on the future probability of success. That is the very definition of correlation and not causation.

That's one of the most ridiculous loads of bull I've possibly ever seen. The chance to reach the majors is tremendously higher in the early rounds. I'll link a couple articles on it, but your chances to make the majors from the first round is much that of rounds 2-3, and rounds 2-3 is almost double that of rounds 5-10, and after round 10 it really drops off the map. And when talking about high WAR players, the majority of them come from the first 3 rounds.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1219356-examining-the-percentage-of-mlb-draft-picks-that-reach-the-major-leagues

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2013/3/5/3977782/what-are-the-odds-of-making-it-to-the-major-leagues

[thethe]

That's one of the most ridiculous loads of bull I've possibly ever seen. The chance to reach the majors is tremendously higher in the early rounds. I'll link a couple articles on it, but your chances to make the majors from the first round is much that of rounds 2-3, and rounds 2-3 is almost double that of rounds 5-10, and after round 10 it really drops off the map. And when talking about high WAR players, the majority of them come from the first 3 rounds.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1219356-examining-the-percentage-of-mlb-draft-picks-that-reach-the-major-leagues

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2013/3/5/3977782/what-are-the-odds-of-making-it-to-the-major-leagues

I must have not explained myself well and I quoted the wrong post.

YOur point that the Braves don't have success picking pitchers early has no bearing on their future success picking pitchers early. That point is irrelevant in evaulating them picking pitchers early in the future.

[auyushu]

Well this kid we supposedly have locked up in Maiten sounds like he would be a top 5 pick in any of the last 5 drafts.

Yep, hopefully he winds up signing and being the real deal. But given his age there is no way we'd see him before 2020-2021ish. I'd like to see us having an exciting offense and making it deep into the playoffs before then myself.

[thethe]

Yep, hopefully he winds up signing and being the real deal. But given his age there is no way we'd see him before 2020-2021ish. I'd like to see us having an exciting offense and making it deep into the playoffs before then myself.

Good thing we drafted Riley then.

[auyushu]

I must have not explained myself well and I quoted the wrong post.

YOur point that the Braves don't have success picking pitchers early has no bearing on their future success picking pitchers early. That point is irrelevant in evaulating them picking pitchers early in the future.


Ahh, well I agree with that in general terms, and I think Allard has a high chance to be a stud. But I've seen you and others making comments about how you trust the scouts implicitly and make reference to past results as a reason why. I'm just saying past results don't justify that sort of implicit trust. I'm hopeful however that Hart's comments after the Olivera trade about how hard it is to trade for bats right now is a sign we will be more balanced with our early picks going forward. We've actually had much better success going hitters early anyway, compared to going pitchers. Particularly when it comes to impact players.

[thethe]

Ahh, well I agree with that in general terms, and I think Allard has a high chance to be a stud. But I've seen you and others making comments about how you trust the scouts implicitly and make reference to past results as a reason why. I'm just saying past results don't justify that sort of implicit trust. I'm hopeful however that Hart's comments after the Olivera trade about how hard it is to trade for bats right now is a sign we will be more balanced with our early picks going forward. We've actually had much better success going hitters early anyway, compared to going pitchers. Particularly when it comes to impact players.

I think when you look at the whole picture of all the talent brought into the organization since October you see a lot of hitting prospects at all ceiling levels. It makes sense to acquire more pitcher just due to the sheer atrition levels. You never want to be subject to have to pay pitchers on the FA market. If you choose to thats another story. I'd rather throw 20+ million on a hitter over a pitcher any day of the week when the player is 27+.

[nsacpi]

They yield on HS pitchers is not especially good (compared to the yield for college pitchers, college hitters, HS hitters) at any point of the draft (first round, other early rounds, middle rounds, late rounds). So does that imply you should never draft HS pitchers. I don't this so. What you look for is the part of the draft where the yield for them is least bad (or where they have a comparative advantage to use a term from economics). And that happens to be in the first round.

[auyushu]

I'd rather throw 20+ million on a hitter over a pitcher any day of the week when the player is 27+.

The results over the past 10 years or say actually say otherwise. Most of the major FA hitter signings for players over 27 have turned out fairly badly, while a majority of the major pitching signings have worked out well (minus Sabathia, who we all knew would suck mid contract due to being a huge fatty). As long as a starting pitcher doesn't have shoulder issues they are usually able to stay fairly consistent till they are around 37ish, whereas without performance enhancers hitter tail off drastically after the age of 32ish.

I really can't think of a a major hitter FA that has worked out really well since Holliday (Beltre maybe I guess, but his value is as much defense as bat). Most of the FA batters have been disasters.

And we barely have any true hitting prospects at all levels of the minors. We have Smith in AAA, who is decent. Then we have Albies in A ball who is very good, and Davidson in A ball who is probably a coin flip between being a stud and a bust depending on how his contact skills develop. And we have 4-5 interesting bats in rookie ball. But that's rookie ball, Cody Johnson looked good in rookie ball.

I really like Riley and Albies, but other than that I don't see any bats I would consider even close to sure bets to be solid major league regulars.

[auyushu]

They yield on HS pitchers is not especially good (compared to the yield for college pitchers, college hitters, HS hitters) at any point of the draft (first round, other early rounds, middle rounds, late rounds). So does that imply you should never draft HS pitchers. I don't this so. What you look for is the part of the draft where the yield for them is least bad (or where they have a comparative advantage to use a term from economics). And that happens to be in the first round.

Wouldn't say never of course, but given that:
A. Good hitters have more value than good pitchers in general right now
B. As you say the yield is higher on hitters and college pitchers in the early rounds

Then from an economic and statistical perspective it would make sense to draft and trade bats for pitchers rather than do the opposite. I will say however that the results in the first 20 picks or so (particularly top 15 picks, which is where most of the Aces come from for the most part) of the draft for high school pitchers tend to be much higher than later, so I have less issues with that. It's more the high number of pitcher picks we make in the sandwich rounds and 2nd round that bother me, as that is a sweet spot for grabbing impact bats in most drafts.

[nsacpi]

The results over the past 10 years or say actually say otherwise. Most of the major FA hitter signings for players over 27 have turned out fairly badly, while a majority of the major pitching signings have worked out well (minus Sabathia, who we all knew would suck mid contract due to being a huge fatty). As long as a starting pitcher doesn't have shoulder issues they are usually able to stay fairly consistent till they are around 37ish, whereas without performance enhancers hitter tail off drastically after the age of 32ish.

I really can't think of a a major hitter FA that has worked out really well since Holliday (Beltre maybe I guess, but his value is as much defense as bat). Most of the FA batters have been disasters.

Beltran was a good signing for both the Mets and Cardinals. Teixeira has been mostly good for the Yankees.

[nsacpi]

Wouldn't say never of course, but given that:
A. Good hitters have more value than good pitchers in general right now
B. As you say the yield is higher on hitters and college pitchers in the early rounds

Then from an economic and statistical perspective it would make sense to draft and trade bats for pitchers rather than do the opposite. I will say however that the results in the first 20 picks or so (particularly top 15 picks, which is where most of the Aces come from for the most part) of the draft for high school pitchers tend to be much higher than later, so I have less issues with that. It's more the high number of pitcher picks we make in the sandwich rounds and 2nd round that bother me, as that is a sweet spot for grabbing impact bats in most drafts.

Here is a thread where I looked at the yields from the last 20 Braves drafts.

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3546

[auyushu]

Beltran was a good signing for both the Mets and Cardinals. Teixeira has been mostly good for the Yankees.

Tex has been worth his contract 2 years (4.3 WAR first year and on pace for over 4 WAR this season), terrible 2 years (1 WAR or less), and decent one year where he was overpaid (2.8 WAR). I would consider that a mixed bag, not mostly good. Beltran definitely was worth it for the Mets, he was a bit outside the 10 year window of FA signings I was looking at.

[nsacpi]

Tex has been worth his contract 2 years (4.3 WAR first year and on pace for over 4 WAR this season), terrible 2 years (1 WAR or less), and decent one year where he was overpaid (2.8 WAR). I would consider that a mixed bag, not mostly good. Beltran definitely was worth it for the Mets, he was a bit outside the 10 year window of FA signings I was looking at.

Tex was a little over 5 WAR his first season with the Yankees.

[auyushu]

Tex was a little over 5 WAR his first season with the Yankees.

I'm apparently completely blind and missed his first two seasons on FG somehow. I stand corrected, you are right and he has been mostly good.