How Are Simmon's Defensive Metrics This Year?

[CyYoung31]

Can some of the more saber-savy posters inform me?

I'm curious, because there was a ball hit earlier tonight that he seems to get to normally. And I don't remember seeing make as many amazing plays this year as we're used to seeing.

[clvclv]

Can some of the more saber-savy posters inform me?

I'm curious, because there was a ball hit earlier tonight that he seems to get to normally. And I don't remember seeing make as many amazing plays this year as we're used to seeing.


Long way to go for me to put "serious" weight in most defensive metrics (unlike some, I'd like to see them proven with a bigger sample size), but part of me would attribute part of that to the fact that the pitching has been so bad that several of the highlight reel plays we're used to seeing disappear when many of the balls put in play aren't in places even HE can't get to.

[CyYoung31]

Long way to go for me to put "serious" weight in most defensive metrics (unlike some, I'd like to see them proven with a bigger sample size), but part of me would attribute part of that to the fact that the pitching has been so bad that several of the highlight reel plays we're used to seeing disappear when many of the balls put in play aren't in places even HE can't get to.

So, you know what the defensive metrics say? I'm just curious, not putting much stock in them at this point.

[clvclv]

So, you know what the defensive metrics say? I'm just curious, not putting much stock in them at this point.

No - I have no clue. Rarely look at them at all since I'm not a believer - yet.

[auyushu]

Can some of the more saber-savy posters inform me?

I'm curious, because there was a ball hit earlier tonight that he seems to get to normally. And I don't remember seeing make as many amazing plays this year as we're used to seeing.

The defensive stats pretty much back up what your eyes are telling you. He's still very very good with 19 DRS in 980 innings, but that's a little bit off his pace from last year when he had 28 DRS in 1280 innings for the year.

And the biggest difference does seem to be on the amazing type plays. He's only getting to 30% of the balls graded as really unlikely for him to field (10-40% chance of any SS making the play), where he was at 50% on those type plays last year. He's also down a bit on mildly challenging plays and as well.

So yeah, still among the best couple SS in baseball defensively, but not blowing everyone away like in years past.

[Tapate50]

Been a little banged up this season as well.

[Julio3000]

Been a little banged up this season as well.

Yeah, I think he's been playing hurt, and it's limited his effectiveness. He's still on top, but he's not lapping the field as in previous years. He had a little extra spring in his step at the beginning of the year that he's been missing, IMO. That said, he's only made 4 errors and is still the best around.

[MadduxFanII]

The other thing to keep in mind is that, historically, defense peaks early. That's not to say Andrelton is three years away from being Wilmer Flores at short, but it seems likely that his 2013 season is the best defensive performance he'll ever post.

[thewupk]

The other thing to keep in mind is that, historically, defense peaks early. That's not to say Andrelton is three years away from being Wilmer Flores at short, but it seems likely that his 2013 season is the best defensive performance he'll ever post.

Yeah. It's also unfair to epxect him to continue having historic season after historic season. If he's just saving 20 runs a year I'll be happy which is far an away more than 99% of other shortstops.

[MadduxFanII]

Yeah. It's also unfair to epxect him to continue having historic season after historic season. If he's just saving 20 runs a year I'll be happy which is far an away more than 99% of other shortstops.

Simmons in 2013 was a lot like Kimbrel in 2012- he just pushed the limits of what was actually possible against big league competition. Craig "declined" in 2013 and 2014, simply because what he did in 2012 was so stupidly dominant that it was unsustainable. I suspect that's Simmons' story as well.

[GovClintonTyree]

The other thing to keep in mind is that, historically, defense peaks early. That's not to say Andrelton is three years away from being Wilmer Flores at short, but it seems likely that his 2013 season is the best defensive performance he'll ever post.

Usually. Omar Vizquel was nearly as good in his late 30s as he was at his peak, and played the position well in his 40s. His bat didn't hold up. And yeah, he's an outlier, but so is our boy.

[gilesfan]

Long way to go for me to put "serious" weight in most defensive metrics (unlike some, I'd like to see them proven with a bigger sample size), but part of me would attribute part of that to the fact that the pitching has been so bad that several of the highlight reel plays we're used to seeing disappear when many of the balls put in play aren't in places even HE can't get to.

This really doesn't make sense.

[Enscheff]

It might also be a little hard to put in 110% effort on defense for a team that is playing for 2017. Certainly not worth getting hurt diving for a ball again when the team isn't going to win 70 games.

[clvclv]

This really doesn't make sense.

It actually makes perfect sense - maybe just not to you.

[CyYoung31]

I know the discussion doesn't belong in this thread though, so I don't even know why you brought it up.

[gilesfan]

It actually makes perfect sense - maybe just not to you.

He's not knocked for balls that aren't hit "in his zone." His numbers are down bc he's not making plays on balls that he typically does. That's not to say he's not still a great defender, but it's just a notch below what he's been.

[sturg33]

I think the best "defense" for defense being evaluated well within WAR is that Team WAR seems to reflect that good defensive teams are outperforming their offensive contributions.

[thewupk]

I think the best "defense" for defense being evaluated well within WAR is that Team WAR seems to reflect that good defensive teams are outperforming their offensive contributions.

Royals are the perfect example of that this season.

[clvclv]

He's not knocked for balls that aren't hit "in his zone." His numbers are down bc he's not making plays on balls that he typically does. That's not to say he's not still a great defender, but it's just a notch below what he's been.

I think that makes plenty of sense, but my question (and earlier point) was - are there fewer chances for him to make those plays on than in previous years? Are more of those balls just a little deeper in the OF or further in the holes? Given that our pitching has been substantially worse than in previous years, are there more balls dropping just a few feet outside the area anyshu was talking about?

[thewupk]

I think that makes plenty of sense, but my question (and earlier point) was - are there fewer chances for him to make those plays on than in previous years? Are more of those balls just a little deeper in the OF or further in the holes? Given that our pitching has been substantially worse than in previous years, are there more balls dropping just a few feet outside the area anyshu was talking about?

Why should the quality of pitchers matter on the amount of balls in Simmons zone? Unless our pitchers in years prior had the ability to make the batters hit the ball there. The simple solution is that wasn't Simmons true talent level and was just a freak season. Just like when someone has a super high BABIP in a given year. Simmons actual talent is likely at 20+ runs saved per year.

[clvclv]

Why should the quality of pitchers matter on the amount of balls in Simmons zone? Unless our pitchers in years prior had the ability to make the batters hit the ball there. The simple solution is that wasn't Simmons true talent level and was just a freak season. Just like when someone has a super high BABIP in a given year. Simmons actual talent is likely at 20+ runs saved per year.

That's the question I'm asking again. Are there more balls hit in his general vicinity this year that are just outside his zone than before? You're asking someone to solve the problem without giving them all the variables in the equation. Are we shifting more this season? Has the infield been in trying to cut down a run more often? Have those things led to more balls landing in the outer edges of his zone that he'd gotten to before?

You're asking someone who hasn't had the criteria you're using explained to them to just take what you're saying as gospel when half of the MLB front offices don't.

We all get the part about career years and don't necessarily disagree with what you're saying overall - we're just asking you to explain it in a way those who aren't as statistically-inclined can understand. Having disagreements just because you've looked at a chart that others have no clue what they represent (much less what they mean) is what seems to cause a lot of the disconnect. At that point you may find that a big chunk of people that aren't convinced right now might become more convinced.

[auyushu]

That's the question I'm asking again. Are there more balls hit in his general vicinity this year that are just outside his zone than before? You're asking someone to solve the problem without giving them all the variables in the equation. Are we shifting more this season? Has the infield been in trying to cut down a run more often? Have those things led to more balls landing in the outer edges of his zone that he'd gotten to before?


The DRS and inside edge fielding stats actually take into account all the balls hit anywhere near him, even ones just outside his range, which is why GF was saying what you were saying made no sense Clv.

But to answer your question, no, Simmons hasn't had more balls hit just outside his range this year. He's actually had far less balls go just outside his range this year than last. He had 30 balls hit his way that were deemed impossible to make a play on last year, but only 7 of those this year. He had 26 balls hit at him last year that were considered a remote chance to get (1-10% chance to make a play), but only 13 of those balls hit at him this year.

[clvclv]

The DRS and inside edge fielding stats actually take into account all the balls hit anywhere near him, even ones just outside his range, which is why GF was saying what you were saying made no sense Clv.

But to answer your question, no, Simmons hasn't had more balls hit just outside his range this year. He's actually had far less balls go just outside his range this year than last. He had 30 balls hit his way that were deemed impossible to make a play on last year, but only 7 of those this year. He had 26 balls hit at him last year that were considered a remote chance to get (1-10% chance to make a play), but only 13 of those balls hit at him this year.

That helps explain the differences quite a bit. For those of us that still need convincing, the question then becomes "is that because that difference is because there have been more hard-hit balls/line drives in that range than before"? This is the reason I ask whether pitching could be part of that difference. Andrelton often has seemed to get to pop-ups and groundballs that most guys didn't get to, but are those balls line-drives instead of those recently?

[auyushu]

That helps explain the differences quite a bit. For those of us that still need convincing, the question then becomes "is that because that difference is because there have been more hard-hit balls/line drives in that range than before"? This is the reason I ask whether pitching could be part of that difference. Andrelton often has seemed to get to pop-ups and groundballs that most guys didn't get to, but are those balls line-drives instead of those recently?

Well the balls are graded by how difficult the play is to begin with, so how hard the ball is hit is naturally part of the labeling when they count the play as impossible, remote, unlikely, likely etc to be made.

[KB21]

He's not knocked for balls that aren't hit "in his zone." His numbers are down bc he's not making plays on balls that he typically does. That's not to say he's not still a great defender, but it's just a notch below what he's been.

I call BS on that. Somewhere, someone has adjusted one of the numbers in the formula, and it appears he isn't getting to as many balls as he typically does. My eyes tell me otherwise though. I don't need a number to tell me he is not only the best defensive short stop in baseball but one of the best defensive short stops in the history of the game. He still makes plays and throws that no other short stop in baseball can make. Defensive stats are useless, IMO.

[thewupk]

I call BS on that. Somewhere, someone has adjusted one of the numbers in the formula, and it appears he isn't getting to as many balls as he typically does. My eyes tell me otherwise though. I don't need a number to tell me he is not only the best defensive short stop in baseball but one of the best defensive short stops in the history of the game. He still makes plays and throws that no other short stop in baseball can make. Defensive stats are useless, IMO.

Tell that to the Royals

[gilesfan]

I call BS on that. Somewhere, someone has adjusted one of the numbers in the formula, and it appears he isn't getting to as many balls as he typically does. My eyes tell me otherwise though. I don't need a number to tell me he is not only the best defensive short stop in baseball but one of the best defensive short stops in the history of the game. He still makes plays and throws that no other short stop in baseball can make. Defensive stats are useless, IMO.

You can call BS all you want. No one is saying Simmons isn't a great SS (his numbers are still awesome this year)

Im sure the reason his numbers are slightly down is because someone sabotaged him.

[thewupk]

By loking at the inside fielding numbers on fangraphs it does seem Simmons hasn't had as many chances as previous years on certain types of plays. A couple of things to note thought. Those stats aren't updated nightly just like UZR and DRS. I'm not sure when they update but its likely they aren't current as of today. Secondly even by looking at that his fielding of all those different types of plays is lower in every category except routine. So it does seem he is getting to less plays even if he's getting less chances overall.


Also the most improtant thing to consider. Generally we need 3 years of defensvie data to get a decent judge on a player. The real problem is that one year of defensvie data is equal to a 3rd of one offensive season. So for all intents and purposes it's still a small sample size. Which is why we should never get worked up if someones defensive numbers are way higher or way lower in one given season. Now if we start to see a trend over 2-3 years then we can have a better idea of what's going on.

And lastly with all that being said the last thing you have to consider is that defensive skill does decline faster than one's hitting ability. So even with 1 season being a relatively small sample size in the grand scheme of things you have to consider the players age to determine if that's just a blip in the SSS world or is it real decline.

With Simmons I think first it's clear that he's getting to less balls as in previous years and that he's had less chances overall as well. That said I would wait until the season is over and all the data is in to make a final determination. And even with all that he's still a top tier SS.