Can We Compete in 2016

[nsacpi]

I'll somewhat arbitrarily define a "competitive" team as one that projects to win at least 80 games. Teams that project to win less might look competitive for a month or two, but can't really hang in there once luck (including injury luck) evens out. This is what we had this year.

So lets do the math. We start out with 48 wins, which is what a team of replacement level players gets you. To get to 80 we need 32 WAR. How do we get there.

1) Our stars Freeman and Simmons need to be healthy and approach their normal production. I'll be slightly optimistic and say 8 WAR from those two.

2) Continuing along a slightly optimistic path, I'll project 2 WAR each from Peterson, Olivera, Markakis and Maybin. 8 WAR from this group bringing us up to 16. As I said this is slightly optimistic given none of them are going to achieve 2 WAR this season.

3) 6 WAR from Miller and Teheran. This brings our total up to 22.

4) 4 WAR from the pen and bench (including players who might start the year in the minors), bringing the total up to 26.

I am assuming replacement level performances from left, catcher and three rotation spots.

So we are about 6 short of 32 with what we currently have on the team.

We have 25-30M to spend on player acquisitions. At the going rate of about 7M per WAR on the FA market, we can realistically get 4 more WAR. This brings us up to 30.

That is a very awkward number to be at. For that kind of team, you need a significant amount of luck (from injuries, hitting with runners in scoring position, strand rate, as well as players outpeforming projections) to make the playoffs. At the same time it is not a terrible no-hope team. We could improve a little further by making some trades that in effect borrow from the future for the present or by backloading contracts. Not sure we want to do that in 2016.

[sturg33]

If we're hellbent on staying away from Heyward/upton... I don't see how we make the improvements needed to be good

[Russ2dollas]

We were young and good a couple of years ago...now Hart seems to be adding older guys who are not as good.

I think we'll add another pitcher. I still think they'll trade Tehran for a bat. I think they will run at Lucroy again.

My hope is there is some monster trade that we can win, but it's a small hope since we just had a monster trade and I hate it.

[Enscheff]

Upwards of $30M and a top 5 farm system to gain 6 additional WAR from 5 roster spots? That doesn't seem like too much to ask from a front office.

One of the rotation spots and either LF or C should easily be filled with the available funds (+4-5 WAR). A trade of some sort should be able to fill the position that wasn't addressed via FA (+1-2 WAR). One of the young pitchers should be able to step up next year and provide positive WAR (+1), while the 5th slot will likely remain a drag on the team as young guys continue to be broken in with those starts (0 WAR).

The most concerning aspect, to me at least, of building a contender by 2017 is the fact that the FA market a year from now is going to be so poor. This upcoming FA market is relatively strong, and this should have been the offseason the Braves added an impact player or two. Instead, they traded for Bourn and Swisher to save money for an offseason when there won't be anything worth buying.

[Chico]

We could be competitive, but I don't think it's the main goal. We'll acquire some players that could help us out, and if everything goes right give us a great season and a possible trip to the playoffs. If it goes south due to risks not working out, injuries, or ineffectiveness then we'll open up shop in July and continue the rebuild.

We have plenty of money to make some calculated risks and see where the cards lie afterward

[nsacpi]

Upwards of $30M and a top 5 farm system to gain 6 additional WAR from 5 roster spots? That doesn't seem like too much to ask from a front office.

One of the rotation spots and either LF or C should easily be filled with the available funds (+4-5 WAR). A trade of some sort should be able to fill the position that wasn't addressed via FA (+1-2 WAR). One of the young pitchers should be able to step up next year and provide positive WAR (+1), while the 5th slot will likely remain a drag on the team as young guys continue to be broken in with those starts (0 WAR).



Getting from a projected 78 win team to something slightly better is definitely doable. It can happen in a number of ways. Backload a contract or two. Trade from the farm system. Or win a trade. Or get more than we pay for any free agents. It is doable.

[Russ2dollas]

I don't see how we can think we'll be a player in 17 if we aren't a player in 16. Unless 17 we plan on signing some studs I don't know about or we have some guys in the minors that are going to be killers in 17 (not sure who that would be). So I think you have to work to be a good team in 16. B/c going from a team like this to WS is a tough job.

[nsacpi]

I've questioned all along this attempt to draw a sharp line between what comes before the move to the new stadium and what comes after. It isn't really possible to completely start anew. Among other things the sour taste left in the mouths of the team's paying customers from a lost season doesn't just get washed away. But also you can't completely change rosters. It just is not feasible. And the poor FA crop coming up after the 2016 season adds to the difficulty.

[The Chosen One]

Hart isn't concerned with 2016. It's ALL about the 2017 baby!

[yeezus]

yeah.

[VirginiaBrave]

Yes!!! We would still be hovering around .500 for this year had we not traded Wood, KJ, JJ, and Uribe. Freeman had not missed 1/3 of the season and Grilli not gotten hurt or traded. The team that is out there right now is just not an accurate picture of the first half of the year. It's really been two separate years and teams. For it to get better Hart must find solutions for the 6th-7th.

[sturg33]

Yes!!! We would still be hovering around .500 for this year had we not traded Wood, KJ, JJ, and Uribe. Freeman had not missed 1/3 of the season and Grilli not gotten hurt or traded. The team that is out there right now is just not an accurate picture of the first half of the year. It's really been two separate years and teams. For it to get better Hart must find solutions for the 6th-7th.

I still can't believe people are making this argument.

[VirginiaBrave]

Not an argument...it's an undisputed FACT!!!! Sturg you and others b----ed all winter about the loss of JH, JU, and EG. But somehow the loss of the six guys I mentioned doesn't matter? Just being hardheaded I guess.

[sturg33]

Not an argument...it's an undisputed FACT!!!! Sturg you and others b----ed all winter about the loss of JH, JU, and EG. But somehow the loss of the six guys I mentioned doesn't matter? Just being hardheaded I guess.

So you think keeping KJ & Uribe (who've been terrible), keeping Wood (who's been below average), Grilli, and Freeman healthy means we would have twice the amount of games we did in the last 48?

That's preposterous.

And stop whining about Freeman getting hurt. You can't build a team that can't sustain at least one injury. That's on Hart. The Cardinals have lost a ton of players and have the best record in baseball.

The Braves over performed almost across the board the in first 3 months. They were a terrible team from day one. Just like we told you they would be. Hard wanted to trade away the biggest collection of young talent that I can ever remember... fine. But don't be surprised that it set us up to compete for the worst record in baseball and nobody cares enough to even watch anymore.

[nsacpi]

The first two months of the season, we had a number of players out-performing projections, we had exceptional pinch hitting and hitting with RISP, and we had very few injuries. With everything breaking just right we managed to stay just below .500. We were not built to be a .500 team. We were a sub-.500 team catching a bunch of breaks and staying close to .500.

Ironically, we had a better team once Uribe came on board and we stopped giving significant roles to Callaspo, EYJr, Stults and Cahill. But our luck (including injuries) turned shortly after.

[BRule]

Can we compete in 2016?

No

[CrimsonCowboy]

I'll give you an answer to this question when I see the roster for 2016. Only players on the current roster who I am certain will be on the team are Freeman, Simmons, Miller, and Markakis. There's going to be another offseason in which we are going to see major roster turnover, particularity with the pitching staff.

[thewupk]

The likely answer is, no. If Hart isn't going to go after top tier hitters I don't see how we can an average offense next season.

[Julio3000]

The first two months of the season, we had a number of players out-performing projections, we had exceptional pinch hitting and hitting with RISP, and we had very few injuries. With everything breaking just right we managed to stay just below .500. We were not built to be a .500 team. We were a sub-.500 team catching a bunch of breaks and staying close to .500.

Ironically, we had a better team once Uribe came on board and we stopped giving significant roles to Callaspo, EYJr, Stults and Cahill. But our luck (including injuries) turned shortly after.

Can't quote this enough.

[auyushu]

I don't see how we can think we'll be a player in 17 if we aren't a player in 16. Unless 17 we plan on signing some studs I don't know about or we have some guys in the minors that are going to be killers in 17 (not sure who that would be). So I think you have to work to be a good team in 16. B/c going from a team like this to WS is a tough job.

Which is why the wait for 2017 mantra is pretty wacky. It doesn't really line up with the talent we have in the minors. Most of our elite talent is in the lower minors and won't be ready till 2018. So we either have to really kick butt this offseason making trades or FA signings or we aren't going to be competitive in 2016 and 2017. And if we aren't willing to do shell out the money to make that happen we might as well just get a couple more top draft picks rather than push really hard simply to be a .500 team.

[Dalyn]

No.

[Horsehide Harry]

Which is why the wait for 2017 mantra is pretty wacky. It doesn't really line up with the talent we have in the minors. Most of our elite talent is in the lower minors and won't be ready till 2018. So we either have to really kick butt this offseason making trades or FA signings or we aren't going to be competitive in 2016 and 2017. And if we aren't willing to do shell out the money to make that happen we might as well just get a couple more top draft picks rather than push really hard simply to be a .500 team.

This is why Hart really, REALLY needs to keep pushing with the rebuild. Sign an ace who can BE an ace for 5-6 more years and serviceable in years 6-7? Yes, go sign Price. It's a gamble of course because Price could get injured, or against all history, lose effectiveness fast. But, it at least fits the long term plan of building some excitement (maybe even competing) in 2017 with reality of being a force through 2020.

Sign the LF equivalent of Markakis to a 4 year deal? No, Gordon makes NO sense for the team because you still have the gamble but NO fit for the long term goal. Firstly, you are already paying Markakis for all the "intangible" hocus pocus so you have to judge Gordon on production. And, at his age and injury history, you might get 2, maybe 3 good years (relative), most of which will be when the Braves are least prepared to be competitive.

The FA market is flush with pitchers, some very good pitchers. Use Miller and/or Teheran to bring back strong minor league talent to fill the everyday position holes and replace those guys from the market. (However, at this point it would probably be best to hold onto Teheran until mid season 2016 and hope he rebuilds his value).

[nsacpi]

Our lineup these days is close to what I think it will be in 2016: Markakis, Maybin and Swisher in the OF; Freeman, Jace, Simmons and Olivera in the IF, and AJ and Bethancourt catching.

Will be interesting to see what kind of offense this group generates during the rest of the season. It will provide a hint as to how competitive we can be in 2016.

[50PoundHead]

Yes!!! We would still be hovering around .500 for this year had we not traded Wood, KJ, JJ, and Uribe. Freeman had not missed 1/3 of the season and Grilli not gotten hurt or traded. The team that is out there right now is just not an accurate picture of the first half of the year. It's really been two separate years and teams. For it to get better Hart must find solutions for the 6th-7th.

I predicted 71-91 and I think we hit that easily if we hang onto the four guys you mention. .500 would probably be a bit much in my estimation.

The last couple of moves made by Hart are head-scratchers to me. Like I've said before, I'm not sold on either Wood or Peraza, but I have a strong aversion to Cuban players (even when healthy). The Johnson for Swisher and Bourn really made no sense to me in either the short or long terms. Those contracts go off the books after 2016, but a dollar spent in either the short or long terms is a dollar that can't be used on something else.

nsacpi, I think your 8 WAR out of Freeman and Simmons points out one of my quibbles with how defensive value, while valid, may not translate in terms of value to a team. Simmons has a great glove, but for this team to elevate, we can't have an iffy hitter at any position and Simmons is an iffy hitter (at least to me).

We simply have to pitch better next season, both in the rotation and in the bullpen. Nothing can kill a team's spirit like bad pitching.

PS--I think it's more likely we'll be competitive by 2018 or 2019. We have some bats in the minors that may be ready by then.

PPS--I'm not going to complain too much about Markakis. I didn't like the signing, but I think most of the criticism levelled against him comes from the unfair comparison to our previous RF. He's done alright, but he's a support level player at this point in his career and I thought the 4-year deal was two seasons too long.

[nsacpi]

What's interesting is we've gone through so many contortions to clear the Melvin and CJ contracts to free up funds for 2017, yet our talent in the minors points to us being competitive in 2018 or later. All of the punting this year and next seems unlikely to have the desired effect of having a strong team in place for 2017. Unless we start trading prospects for major leaguers.

My fear is we start cannibalizing 2018 and beyond just as we have cannibalized 2015 and 2016 because of the zeal to have something special in 2017.

[Hudson2]

You're right 50. Markakis is a good role player and does what he needs to get on base. We need one more big hitter to pair with Freeman with power. If we can get that in LF then I think we'll be on the right track. Pitching which was supposed to be our biggest strength is looking like our biggest weakness. Our bullpen other than Viz needs to be cut and start over from scratch. I'm hoping Wisler and others are just having growing pains. I know the FO is saying competitive by 2017 and if that's true then they have their work cut out for them this offseason.

[50PoundHead]

What's interesting is we've gone through so many contortions to clear the Melvin and CJ contracts to free up funds for 2017, yet our talent in the minors points to us being competitive in 2018 or later. All of the punting this year and next seems unlikely to have the desired effect of having a strong team in place for 2017. Unless we start trading prospects for major leaguers.

I am curious where Ruiz and D. Peterson will start the 2016 seasons. I think those two, along with Davidson, constitute guys who have a chance at the big league level, but no earlier than 2017 for Ruiz and 2018 or 2019 for D. Peterson and Davidson. Of course, Riley and company in the rookie leagues may move as quickly (although I am a noteable rookie league skeptic).

[Hudson2]

I think there's a list of guys they won't trade. Albies, Allard, Riley, and Davidson being atop the list. Especially with the #1 pick in the draft coming and rumors about us spending big on the international front. I think we'll see a big shake up this offseason.

[50PoundHead]

I think there's a list of guys they won't trade. Albies, Allard, Riley, and Davidson being atop the list. Especially with the #1 pick in the draft coming and rumors about us spending big on the international front. I think we'll see a big shake up this offseason.

Possible, but we don't have much to shake unless we send money along with guys like Swisher, Bourn, and Markakis. There are times I wish we had traded Simmons and moved Peraza back to SS, but with Peraza gone, we don't have any back-up behind Simmons. As spectacular (and solid) Simmons is with the glove, I think he's lost as a hitter.

[Hudson2]

I mean with free agents to. Simmons looks good and then just looks lost. It's crazy. I'm still holding out hope for his bat but we are probably seeing what he is with the bat.

[depley]

starting pitching
Miller, good
Teheran, what happened?
Perez, ajax may be stronger than dirt, he is not
Wisler, I said the first time I saw him he looked very hittable, have not changed my mind
Folty, I was hopeful he got it the one game he backed off from trying to throw 100mph, the next game he was right back at it.
Minor, will he be a Brave nor not? Where will he be after a year not pitching

The pen
we have an injured Grilli, not sure the time table for his return, ok not great
Viscaino, looks pretty solid
Shae Simmons can he make a comeback?
the rest? dirt.

1B Freeman, love Freddie, but he needs real protection in this lineup
2B Peterson, well, the jury is still out
SS Simmons his defense is still enough to offset his lapses at teh plate.
3B Olivera, not impressed so far, he has the range of a hippo and no sense of instinct to play 3b from what I have seen
C sorry I do not want AJ back , they are screwing themselves by not playing Bethancourt every day to find out if he can handle it, if not sign or trade for a catcher dangit, but let the old AJ go on his way, we need a better game caller for our pitchers.

OF
Markakis, he is here and will stay but not sure why we are paying him that much money
Maybin, I am torn, not sure what to believe, still think Mallex is the future so a trade might be a good idea
Swisher/Bourne, really I have to say anything here? garbage and we are paying too much just to rid ourselves of Johnson, but it appears we will be stuck with both next year because of the salary both will earn.

Bench
there is not a single player here that I could not exchange for just about anyone else, that is sad.

so can we compete in 2016? not likely given the current roster construction, I do not see how they fix it by 2017 to be honest.

[buck75]

We also have to hope that all the acquired bullpen pitchers (disabled w TJ surgeries) can pitch well in 2016.