Bourn vs Bossman

[zitothebrave]

We had a few debates at that other place about Bourn and Upton and a few people asked who would be worth more over 5 years or whatever and Istuck to Bourn, some others said Upton.

I'm only gonna mention thethe because he's the only one I remember but others were part of that crew. It was hardly an isolated incident.

Anyway figured since we're most of the way through 2013 I'll start this and hopefully we can keep it running so that we can see who was actually right by the end of this 5 years

To date these are the stats for the Pair

Bourn .277/.328/.363 3.8 UZR 2.1 fWAR

Bossman .193/.276/.310 0.0 UZR -0.2 fWAR

I'll try to update this every few weeks just so it doesn't fall by the wayside.

One thing that's surprising to me about both of them is they're both under perfroming my defensive expectation (which is part of the issue with using single year defensive stats) I expected Bourn to go down from last year, but still be over 10. Meanwhile I expected Upton to go up playing next to the best defensive corner OF in baseball. Now the one concern that may have been skewing that is Justin struggling. Not sure why he is in LF given his athleticism.

[Enscheff]

You have to keep a running tab rather than just look back in 5 years?

Sounds to me you just want to brag about the poor year BJ is having compared to the mediocre year Bourn is having.

[zitothebrave]

It's easy to keep tabs on it over the years. Makes lots of things more interesting to follow as the seasons go on, who's up and who's down, so on so forth.

[50PoundHead]

I don't think anyone thought BJ Upton would have been this bad. Bourn is doing pretty much what he's always done. My disappointment has come from the impression that we appear to have overpaid Upton by about $3M/year. Bourn put the Braves in a bit of a box given his impending free agency, but then the Braves put themselves--willingly--in a bigger box.

[Dunit24]

BJ has sucked.....no pun intended, but Id still rather have BJ than Bourn. We have seen the worst of the worst in BJ so far. He will get better.

[Heyward]

I'd rather have Bourn at the contracts they got but I think Frank wanted a CF'er early.

Sadly BJ has been awful, he's got nowhere to go but up, right?

[yeezus]

I'd rather have Bourn at the contracts they got but I think Frank wanted a CF'er early.

Sadly BJ has been awful, he's got nowhere to go but up, right?

Well no one thought Bourn would get the contract he got. If he would've signed for that early in the off-season, we'd have just kept him IMO.
But he got stuck in the draft pick thing, and it hurt him.

[gilesfan]

I never understood why Wren didn't just keep Bourn.

[zbhargrove]

I never understood why Wren didn't just keep Bourn.

He tried

[Heyward]

I never understood why Wren didn't just keep Bourn.

Yeezus post pretty much explains it all.

[Heyward]

Well no one thought Bourn would get the contract he got. If he would've signed for that early in the off-season, we'd have just kept him IMO.
But he got stuck in the draft pick thing, and it hurt him.

Said the same thing on scout.

He and Boras wanted too much.

[gilesfan]

He tried

Not hard enough.

[yeezus]

Not hard enough.

Do you mean sign him to the contract we signed BJ to?
If so, that's fair. But I think most saw more upside in BJ (younger, more power).
Again, if Wren knew Bourn would have signed for what he signed for, he prob would have done it. But Bourn was asking for much more than that when BJ was signed.

[gilesfan]

Do you mean sign him to the contract we signed BJ to?
If so, that's fair. But I think most saw more upside in BJ (younger, more power).
Again, if Wren knew Bourn would have signed for what he signed for, he prob would have done it. But Bourn was asking for much more than that when BJ was signed.

If that is accurate, he wasn't patient enough and blew his wad on Upton. Who, was def. younger, but not as good.

Id rather go into the year with Heyward in CF and trying to aquire a CF or finding a stopgap than signing Upton at that contract.

[yeezus]

If that is accurate, he wasn't patient enough and blew his wad on Upton. Who, was def. younger, but not as good.

Id rather go into the year with Heyward in CF and trying to aquire a CF or finding a stopgap than signing Upton at that contract.

Pretty well known that Wren ended up bidding against himself for BJ and gave him a good amount more than anyone else would go. I don't think anyone likes the move in hindsight.
But I still think it's mildly possible Wren felt getting BJ improved his chances of Justin really wanting to play here.

[wheresmykayak]

One variable I always wonder about with BJ is how much of a shot at Justin we would've had if we hadn't signed BJ.

Sure, BJ has been putrid (60 OPS+, yick), but Justin has been excellent, despite his 3 month slump. I'm going to be a bit optimistic and say that overall, the Upton brothers will be considered a net gain before it's all said and done. Sometimes guys just have awful years, but it's not like BJ is all that old. He can very well bounce back.

I do miss Bourne, but I like Heyward's impression of him in the leadoff spot even more.

[nsacpi]

If that is accurate, he wasn't patient enough and blew his wad on Upton. Who, was def. younger, but not as good.

Id rather go into the year with Heyward in CF and trying to aquire a CF or finding a stopgap than signing Upton at that contract.

The thing that really changed the dynamics for CF market this off-season was the Twins decision to trade away both Revere AND Span. Once that happened Bourn was left out in the cold. I don't think Wren could have foreseen that. He also was anxious to add some right-handed power to balance out the lineup. Again you had some events afterward that makes it easier to second guess him. But I don't think he could have foreseen at the time having a realistic chance of getting Justin Upton or that Gattis would add so much RH power to the team.

Having said all that I do think he overpaid some for BJ. But when you take into account the circumstances at the time the decision was made it is understandable.

[yeezus]

The thing that really changed the dynamics for CF market this off-season was the Twins decision to trade away both Revere AND Span. Once that happened Bourn was left out in the cold. I don't think Wren could have foreseen that. He also was anxious to add some right-handed power to balance out the lineup. Again you had some events afterward that makes it easier to second guess him. But I don't think he could have foreseen at the time having a realistic chance of getting Justin Upton or that Gattis would add so much RH power to the team.

Pretty much what I've been getting at. I think it's easy to see where Wren was coming from, at least.

[50PoundHead]

The thing that really changed the dynamics for CF market this off-season was the Twins decision to trade away both Revere AND Span. Once that happened Bourn was left out in the cold. I don't think Wren could have foreseen that. He also was anxious to add some right-handed power to balance out the lineup. Again you had some events afterward that makes it easier to second guess him. But I don't think he could have foreseen at the time having a realistic chance of getting Justin Upton or that Gattis would add so much RH power to the team.

Having said all that I do think he overpaid some for BJ. But when you take into account the circumstances at the time the decision was made it is understandable.

And the Twins have done so well with Hicks and Clete Thomas in CF. Can't believe the Twins traded both guys. Hicks simply wasn't ready with the bat.

[AUTiger7222]

If that is accurate, he wasn't patient enough and blew his wad on Upton. Who, was def. younger, but not as good.

Id rather go into the year with Heyward in CF and trying to aquire a CF or finding a stopgap than signing Upton at that contract.

Bourn didn't sign until February. When couldn't wait until February for Bourn's asking price to come down to a realistic level.

[AUTiger7222]

And the Twins have done so well with Hicks and Clete Thomas in CF. Can't believe the Twins traded both guys. Hicks simply wasn't ready with the bat.

Clete Thomas! War Eagle baby!

[Krovahn]

BJ has had a fairly poor year, yes; but, Bourn has been mediocre too.

The biggest implication of having BJ, however, IMO is:
Everyone keeps forgetting (or seem to forget) the fact that it is 99% likely that we don't get (or try to get) Justin if we do not sign BJ.

Having Justin, especially his hot April when most of the rest of the team was not playing good gave us that 12-1 start to the year. His hot streak also played a good part in our recent 14 game win streak. Had we not gotten Justin, the team would have far less wins and be in a much lesser position than they are in now. In addition to having Justin, CJ came in the trade too, the NL batting leader. Johnson's play, surprisingly has been far better than Prado... which is just a bonus to us at this point.

IMO, Having BJ, Justin and C. Johnson and their production far outweighs Prado, Bourn and Delgado and their production. We would not nearly be as good of a team had we not signed BJ. I will note here that I am a huge Prado fan and hated seeing him go, but it was the right thing to do.The division race is much closer this year if we did not sign BJ/ Had kept Bourn, plain and simple.

[NinersSBChamps]

I'd rather have Bourn at the contracts they got but I think Frank wanted a CF'er early.

Sadly BJ has been awful, he's got nowhere to go but up, right?

It is possible for him to be worse. He's been "hot" lately and is still under .200

[BRule]

I don't think anyone thought BJ Upton would have been this bad. Bourn is doing pretty much what he's always done. My disappointment has come from the impression that we appear to have overpaid Upton by about $3M/year. Bourn put the Braves in a bit of a box given his impending free agency, but then the Braves put themselves--willingly--in a bigger box.

This bad? No...but plenty of people, my self included, thought he wasnt a good hitter and thought it was a horrible signing.