Value and Market Valuation: Freeman, Simmons and Heyward

[nsacpi]

Simmons is already arguably the best defensive player in the game.

Freeman is the most consistent and polished hitter. Great at scooping those low throws, which the defensive metrics don't account for, but limited range.

Heyward sometimes looks great with the bat sometimes looks awful. Tremendous defender in right and very good baserunner.

WAR provides one measure of overall value. But what would be your valuation so far this season and for the future. Rank them in terms of which you would prioritize when it comes to signing to a long term deal. Explain your reasoning.

[Braves1976]

I'd personally look to lock-up Simmons long term ASAP before he costs more. My reasoning being what you noted about his defense along with my view that his bat will continue to improve. He will cost a lot more once his bat comes around too. Further, I hope we lock all three up long term as core pieces of our future. Heyward is the best defensive right fielder in the game. Plus he can play any outfield position well if needed.

Also, I see Freeman hitting .300 with power consistently in the future. He's an RBI machine too. Plus he can pick it at first as good as pretty much anyone.

[nsacpi]

I'm not going to give my answer yet, but I do want to mention some considerations that I think are relevant in thinking about how to prioritize them in terms of signing to a long term deal.

1) The quality of the potential replacements to each within our system.

2) The extent to which the market undervalues or overvalues the characteristics that distinguishes each player.

3) The ease with which external replacements could be acquired. Issues of positional scarcity come into play here.

4) The willingness of each player to give a hometown discount. I have no knowledge of this regarding any of these players. But if any of you think you do, pipe up.

5) The likely aging pattern of each player as they move into their peak years and beyond.

[zitothebrave]

This season

Freddie>Jason>Simmons

Future

Jason>Simmons>Freddie

[Braves1976]

According to fangraphs, Simmons is already at 34 DRS and tied with Freeman for the best WAR on the team. Wasn't the previous record 34 DRS (defensive runs saved)? If so, Simmons has already tied it and should break it soon.

I am pretty sure Adam Everett of the 2006 Astros owned the record. Adam didn't even win the gold glove that year showing what a joke MLB can be with such awards. I wouldn't be surprised if Simmons doesn't win it either. Also, Bourn deserved one in centerfield last year but didn't get it.

[Enscheff]

Go ahead and lock up Simmons now. His defense is undervalued, so he should sign for peanuts compared to the other two players. He should age well, and since his value is tied to his glove we are less likely to see his value take a huge hit due to a bad year at the plate.

Freeman is getting better and better and is extremely consistent. If Mac is not signed this offseason you look to extend Freeman. If Mac IS signed this offseason you have to strongly consider the need for Mac to play 1B a few years down the line.

Heyward is going to be a gamble either way. He could easily become a $20M+ per year superstar that Wren signed for a discount, or he could be a "good" player Wren is overpaying. Not sure if it's worth the gamble, but it's not like the Braves have any OF prospects knocking on the door to replace Heyward.

So I say:

Sign Simmons now.

Wait on the situtaion with Mac to sign Freeman.

Take a gamble on Heyward if you like to live dangerously.

[Heyward]

Freeman depends on Mac, but I'd probably do it anyway, his swing is too good he won't get in many long slumps barring injuries.

I'd consider Simmons now, since his hitting will likely improve as he gets older.

I'd extend Heyward ASAP, but I don't think he signs an extension with us. I hope like hell I'm wrong however.

[zbhargrove]

As I said in the Freeman thread, I would extend Freddie soon. Not only has he been our most solid offensive player this year, he's also been one of the main leaders if not the heart of the team. Freeman just keeps going beyond everyone's expectations. He will increase his power at only 23 and he will probably be in the running for a batting title or two. I think Freeman's ceiling is higher than most thought when he was coming through the system. And his defense is vastly underrated because of flawed defensive metrics. Simmons, I also want to extend right away. Dude is just sick defensively and has a ton of talent offensively also. Heyward is the one I'm most unsure about because like others say, he's a gamble. BUT he's the most talented and has the most potential to become a Trout like player.

[50PoundHead]

I think Freeman is the best hitter, but that doesn't make him necessarily the best player. His ceiling is lower than Heyward's, but his probability of reaching his ceiling is pretty high. His hitting fundamentals are so solid. Heyward brings so much to the table and I think of the three, he needs to be locked up for the long term. I love Simmons' defense, but I really don't know about his hitting. There are days I think the Simmons we see now offensively is the best we are going to see.

[zitothebrave]

Freeman, Jason and Simmons should all be extended if we have the ability to adn they have the desire to sign. They're all great players and will be for years to come. Jason and Simmons should be bargains as well since most of their value isn't tied into their offensive numbers.

I would rank them in order I want them extended the same as my future order Jason>Simmons>Freddie

Only reason I put Freddie last is JMO he's the most replaceable by internal options since we have Gattis, Johnson, Terds and many others who can play 1B.

[zbhargrove]

Freeman, Jason and Simmons should all be extended if we have the ability to adn they have the desire to sign. They're all great players and will be for years to come. Jason and Simmons should be bargains as well since most of their value isn't tied into their offensive numbers.

I would rank them in order I want them extended the same as my future order Jason>Simmons>Freddie

Only reason I put Freddie last is JMO he's the most replaceable by internal options since we have Gattis, Johnson, Terds and many others who can play 1B.

I will give you that... first is the position we could most easily fill

[zitothebrave]

BTW we have the ability to keep the 3 of them.

[nsacpi]

I would view Joey T and Gattis as alternatives in the outfield as well. But the defensive loss between Heyward and them is greater than between Freeman and them at first.

[zitothebrave]

I would view Joey T and Gattis as alternatives in the outfield as well. But the defensive loss between Heyward and them is greater than between Freeman and them at first.

Way greater.

[Heyward]

BTW we have the ability to keep the 3 of them.

We can, it's all a matter if they want to stay or not.

Not sure on that.

[gilesfan]

What makes anyone think Gattis can play 1B?

[mfree80]

BTW we have the ability to keep the 3 of them.

I hope and believe you are correct, but the fact that Jason and Freddie declined (reportedly) to talk about extensions prior to this year does give a moment of pause.

[nsacpi]

What makes anyone think Gattis can play 1B?

Would you rather have him in left or first? He's played less first and it shows. But I think he's got a better chance of being adequate (after half a season or so of playing time) at first than in left.

[zitothebrave]

What makes anyone think Gattis can play 1B?

He wasn't horrific over there with litereally no professional experience. Some practice I'm sure he'd improve.

[Heyward]

What makes anyone think Gattis can play 1B?

Well, he could play it if he got enough reps.

There have been worst 1B though defensively.

[Heyward]

I hope and believe you are correct, but the fact that Jason and Freddie declined (reportedly) to talk about extensions prior to this year does give a moment of pause.

I think they declined the offer, but yes, definitely a cause for concern.

No idea what was offered.

[gilesfan]

Would you rather have him in left or first? He's played less first and it shows. But I think he's got a better chance of being adequate (after half a season or so of playing time) at first than in left.


I'd rather him be 2nd/3rd catcher and bench RH bat. He has been awful at LF and 1B in the field and adequate at catcher. If he was older and had more time, I would consider letting him get more reps at 1 position.

[PawPawMaxwell]

I dont get the criticism of Gattis in LF. However, IMO he is worth much more as a trade chip in the event McCann resigns with us.

[Braves1976]

I dont get the criticism of Gattis in LF.

I agree that it's overstated, esp. considering how bad Justin Upton has been out there. Justin cost us two more runs yesterday, if that were Gattis we'd never hear the end of it. I didn't expect Justin to do so poorly defensively this year. He's been bad in both right and left field. Plus Justin throws to the wrong base a lot, overthrows the cut off man, etc. He's long been bad that way however (even in Arizona when he showed great range, etc). He's at -10 DRS (defensive runs saved) in the outfield thus far.

That said, Justin should improve in left with more time out there. Bottom line: Gattis and Justin Upton both have given us an OPS over .800 with the bat. So I'll take my chances with their defense given their potential with the bat. I know Gattis lacks in range but he also has a strong arm too. He's thrown out two runners at the plate. Plus he'd have a few more assists at second too if not for some dropped balls by Uggla.

[nsacpi]

The difference is Justin has been bad, but we have good reason to think he can do much better.

[Braves1976]

The difference is Justin has been bad, but we have good reason to think he can do much better.

I expect so as far as getting to balls, but Justin is what he is as far as what he does with after that. He's always been one of the worst at throwing to the wrong base, etc. There was an ESPN article not long ago that covered his track record in that regard. Further, I wouldn't rule out Gattis improving in left either. But as long as he's going back and forth from left to catcher and sometimes first. Well, I'd expect that to make it tougher to be consistent. He's done better than I expected at it all things considered.

[gilesfan]

I agree that it's overstated, esp. considering how bad Justin Upton has been out there. Justin cost us two more runs yesterday, if that were Gattis we'd never hear the end of it. I didn't expect Justin to do so poorly defensively this year. He's been bad in both right and left field. Plus Justin throws to the wrong base a lot, overthrows the cut off man, etc. He's long been bad that way however (even in Arizona when he showed great range, etc). He's at -10 DRS (defensive runs saved) in the outfield thus far.

That said, Justin should improve in left with more time out there. Bottom line: Gattis and Justin Upton both have given us an OPS over .800 with the bat. So I'll take my chances with their defense given their potential with the bat. I know Gattis lacks in range but he also has a strong arm too. He's thrown out two runners at the plate. Plus he'd have a few more assists at second too if not for some dropped balls by Uggla.

Any defensive metric for this year has Gattis being pretty bad. He has terrible range and poor routes. He does have a decent arm.

[Braves1976]

Any defensive metric for this year has Gattis being pretty bad. He has terrible range and poor routes. He does have a decent arm.

Bottom line: Gattis hasn't cost us many runs out there thus far. Plus he's made up for whatever he has cost with his bat. He's similar to Josh Willingham who a lot around here wanted not long ago.

[gilesfan]

Bottom line: Gattis hasn't cost us many runs out there thus far. Plus he's made up for whatever he has cost with his bat. He's similar to Josh Willingham who a lot around here wanted not long ago.

He's -5 in only 155 innings. UZR/150 is -16.2.

Willingham's worst is -13 in 1,027 innings and a UZR/150 of -12.7 (2013) He's also been a much better hitter.

[Braves1976]

He's -5 in only 155 innings. UZR/150 is -16.2.

Willingham's worst is -13 in 1,027 innings and a UZR/150 of -12.7 (2013) He's also been a much better hitter.

All things considered, that's not as bad as you make it out to be. But I am not surprised you still refuse to give Gattis the credit he deserves.

[gilesfan]

All things considered, that's not as bad as you make it out to be. But I am not surprised you still refuse to give Gattis the credit he deserves.

Credit for what? Am I supposed to say he's a good or average defender when he's not? Over the course of a full season, that's like 30-40 runs.

Offensively, I'm not a fan. (mainly low OBP). But, the power was great early on.


SeasonSplit BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+
2013 Mar/Apr 7.10% 22.60% 0.32 0.25 0.31 0.566 0.875 0.316 0.25 13.1 3.8 0.372 139
2013 May 4.30% 24.60% 0.18 0.317 0.362 0.683 1.045 0.365 0.341 14.3 6.7 0.437 184
2013 Jun 16.70% 16.70% 1 0.083 0.233 0.333 0.567 0.25 0 1.6 -1.8 0.239 47
2013 Jul 1.70% 20.70% 0.08 0.263 0.276 0.333 0.609 0.07 0.318 4.4 -2.1 0.269 67
2013 Aug 9.10% 4.50% 2 0.25 0.318 0.35 0.668 0.1 0.263 1.9 -0.6 0.28 76


Table not showing up good. OPS by month:
.875
1.015
.567
.609
.668

[Braves1976]

Credit for what? Am I supposed to say he's a good or average defender when he's not? Over the course of a full season, that's like 30-40 runs.

Offensively, I'm not a fan. (mainly low OBP). But, the power was great early on.


I was thinking of your overall comments about Gattis (including before the season) on up to today.

[yeezus]

He's -5 in only 155 innings. UZR/150 is -16.2.

Willingham's worst is -13 in 1,027 innings and a UZR/150 of -12.7 (2013) He's also been a much better hitter.

Gattis has an extremely small sample size in a position he's never played before.
I have a little bit of hope he can become decent out there.

[Enscheff]

Credit for what? Am I supposed to say he's a good or average defender when he's not? Over the course of a full season, that's like 30-40 runs.

Offensively, I'm not a fan. (mainly low OBP). But, the power was great early on.


SeasonSplit BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+
2013 Mar/Apr 7.10% 22.60% 0.32 0.25 0.31 0.566 0.875 0.316 0.25 13.1 3.8 0.372 139
2013 May 4.30% 24.60% 0.18 0.317 0.362 0.683 1.045 0.365 0.341 14.3 6.7 0.437 184
2013 Jun 16.70% 16.70% 1 0.083 0.233 0.333 0.567 0.25 0 1.6 -1.8 0.239 47
2013 Jul 1.70% 20.70% 0.08 0.263 0.276 0.333 0.609 0.07 0.318 4.4 -2.1 0.269 67
2013 Aug 9.10% 4.50% 2 0.25 0.318 0.35 0.668 0.1 0.263 1.9 -0.6 0.28 76


Table not showing up good. OPS by month:
.875
1.015
.567
.609
.668

But, but, but...he's going to hit 20+ HRs!!

[yeezus]

But, but, but...he's going to hit 20+ HRs!!

?
He's a rookie first-year player with 15 homers and an .808 OPS.
He could definitely still be a valuable hitter.

[zitothebrave]

He's -5 in only 155 innings. UZR/150 is -16.2.

Willingham's worst is -13 in 1,027 innings and a UZR/150 of -12.7 (2013) He's also been a much better hitter.

Defensive Sample FTL!!!

[thethe]

Gattis doubters have been DYING to be able to pump their chests all season. The book is not closed on El Oso Blanco.

[Carp]

Now and future:

Freeman>Simmons>Heyward


Even though J-Hey is the most talented of the bunch by far, I don't see him accepting a hometown discount, and that is part of the reason I am "ok" with letting him go. He is too inconsistent of a hitter for us to throw close to, if not over 100 million dollars at. Spend the money you would on Heyward and spend it on Justin Upton. He's likely the much better player offensive player over the next 5-10 yrs anyways. I would say it's next to impossible to keep both of them long term.

Freeman, I think, is going to one of those players who will get consistently underrated by most people around baseball due to his lack of power. I think we'll keep him around for awhile due to this.

Simmons is a player you don't try to extend for awhile. Lite hitting defensive specialists typically do not require much to attain. I think Simmons develops into a decent hitter, but not enough to make him a marquee player. We can wait on him for a 3-4 yrs before we have to worry about resigning him. Hopefully keep him around for something similar to what Bourn got this past off-season

I think we should be more worried about extending Minor or Teheran than anyone else honestly.

[zitothebrave]

Now and future:

Freeman>Simmons>Heyward


Even though J-Hey is the most talented of the bunch by far, I don't see him accepting a hometown discount, and that is part of the reason I am "ok" with letting him go. He is too inconsistent of a hitter for us to throw close to, if not over 100 million dollars at. Spend the money you would on Heyward and spend it on Justin Upton. He's likely the much better player offensive player over the next 5-10 yrs anyways. I would say it's next to impossible to keep both of them long term.

Freeman, I think, is going to one of those players who will get consistently underrated by most people around baseball due to his lack of power. I think we'll keep him around for awhile due to this.

Simmons is a player you don't try to extend for awhile. Lite hitting defensive specialists typically do not require much to attain. I think Simmons develops into a decent hitter, but not enough to make him a marquee player. We can wait on him for a 3-4 yrs before we have to worry about resigning him. Hopefully keep him around for something similar to what Bourn got this past off-season

I think we should be more worried about extending Minor or Teheran than anyone else honestly.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Carpe

[gilesfan]

Defensive Sample FTL!!!

Or you could watch him play? Or ask Medlen?

[PawPawMaxwell]

Everything on this forum depends on what McCann does.
If Mac stays then Gattis becomes possibly the biggest trade chip in baseball this winter. Like his defense or not. Too many AL teams looking for a catcher. Lets not forget that Gattis has played roughly 200 games in the minors and never at a dedicated position.
Back on topic: Freddie is probably the easiest of the three to retain long term but I just think he is personally determined to go back to California. He also would have the smallest market of the three if put up for trade. Simmons and his defense are valuable beyond measure but unless the Braves get a more stable offense he would be of more value to an AL team which can cover his bat with the DH and lack of a pitcher hitting. Heyward has IMO simply reinvented himself in the leadoff. It will now be more difficult for Wren to move him and especially with BJ floundering.