Position players and WAR

[zitothebrave]

I've discussed this before I believe in a GDT where we dont' have the guys having dominating seasons like Heyward and Bourn last year but have just a bunch of very solid guys, and it's oh so true. 6 of our 8 position players are currently trending a 3+ WAR

Where they're at now

Justin - 3.0
Simmons - 2.9
Heyward - 2.9
Freeman - 2.8
Mac - 2.7
Johnson - 2.4

What's really impressive though is that 3 of that group are under 400 PA Heyward because he missed time twice (though the second was only a handful of games thanks to the ASB) Johnson because it took over a month to win the starting job, and Mac missed a month.

Overall this is our current position player fWAR

C - Mac 2.7
1B Freeman 2.8
2B - Uggla 0.9
3B - Johnson 2.4
SS - Simmons 2.9
LF - Justin 3.0
CF - Bossman -0.4
RF - Jason 2.9

Basically if BJ wasn't having a life crisis then we'd not be in horrible shape at any position. Uggla obviously hasn't been earning his salary but overall still hasn't been terrible.

Last year

C - Mac 1.8
1B - Freeman 1.8
2B - Uggla 3.4
3B - Chipper 2.7
SS - Simmons 2.2
LF - Prado 5.6
CF - Bourn 6.1
RF - Jason 6.4

Basically our OF is way down because of Heyward missing time and not having the same baserunning stats as last year (fielding and offense are on par with last year) Bossman not being as good as Bourn (kinda expected but not this bad) and Justin not being able to match Prado defensively. But we're up almost across the board in the IF except Uggla.

Overall even with Bossman having a horrific season to date our starting players are about 13 WAR below last year, a pretty big step down but we do have some baseball left to play. Maybe Bossman goes on an Ugglaesque type of hot streak and pulls his numbers up to being decent. Also I'm really hoping that Jason exceeds his offensive value from last year.

[50PoundHead]

Heyward is heating up at the right time. He's very good.

Thanks for posting. WAR is kind of shorthand to me, but it's a decent measure.

[gilesfan]

Heyward is heating up at the right time. He's very good.

Thanks for posting. WAR is kind of shorthand to me, but it's a decent measure.

One of my favorite articles on the issue of WAR. http://distilledmagazine.com/moneyball-and-big-data/

I use WAR often, but it is a stat that I think overstates the defensive impact of certain players. (even ignoring how inconsistent defensive stats are at times)

There is no way in my mind that corner outfielders (like Heyward) have the defensive impact on the game that is shown by WAR. For example, Heyward has 12 DRS this year in only 122 plays. (or 130 balls in zone)

[nsacpi]

Heyward is a pretty exceptional outfielder. I've noticed a few times when someone else is in right that balls were going for hits that Heyward would catch. I remember especially one hit to the gap that Reed Johnson made a great effort on. Heyward makes that play with ease. Maybe the defensive stats exaggerate his impact, but not by much. And his hustle in backing up plays is remarkable.

[JCarbo76]

One of my favorite articles on the issue of WAR. http://distilledmagazine.com/moneyball-and-big-data/

I use WAR often, but it is a stat that I think overstates the defensive impact of certain players. (even ignoring how inconsistent defensive stats are at times)

There is no way in my mind that corner outfielders (like Heyward) have the defensive impact on the game that is shown by WAR. For example, Heyward has 12 DRS this year in only 122 plays. (or 130 balls in zone)

Agree completely with that.

[gilesfan]

Heyward is a pretty exceptional outfielder. I've noticed a few times when someone else is in right that balls were going for hits that Heyward would catch. I remember especially one hit to the gap that Reed Johnson made a great effort on. Heyward makes that play with ease. Maybe the defensive stats exaggerate his impact, but not by much. And his hustle in backing up plays is remarkable.

There is no doubt about it, Heyward is an exceptional defender. I can't stress that enough. There have been 130 balls hit into his zone in 90 games this year, thus 1.5 balls in his zone per game. Stat says he's saving a run every 7.5 games. So essentially it's saying for every 11-12 balls hit in Heywards zone, he's saving a full run. As good of a defender as Heyward is, I don't buy that. This isn't saying he's making a pay out of every 12 that your average defender wouldn't make, this is saying he's saving a full run every 12.

If you want to argue the impact that a SS or CF has on a game, I can get in on that argument.

[zitothebrave]

There is no doubt about it, Heyward is an exceptional defender. I can't stress that enough. There have been 130 balls hit into his zone in 90 games this year, thus 1.5 balls in his zone per game. Stat says he's saving a run every 7.5 games. So essentially it's saying for every 11-12 balls hit in Heywards zone, he's saving a full run. As good of a defender as Heyward is, I don't buy that. This isn't saying he's making a pay out of every 12 that your average defender wouldn't make, this is saying he's saving a full run every 12.

If you want to argue the impact that a SS or CF has on a game, I can get in on that argument.

If Heyward saved a double and a single that's most of the way to a run. UZR is based off Linear weights so if every 12 plays heyward makes, a normal RF only makes 9 then yes he's saving a run. I understand why defensive metrics make some leary because you have to put trust in others judgment. But Heyward is clearly far and away better than any RF in baseball.

[gilesfan]

There is no way 1 out of every 4 plays for Heyward is a play the average right fielder would not make.

[zitothebrave]

There is no way 1 out of every 4 plays for Heyward is a play the average right fielder would not make.

I wouldn't rule it out. There's of course more moving parts than how simply I stated it. But the point is that these numbers are all based on essentially how I described, and yes Heyward is that good.

[JCarbo76]

There is no way 1 out of every 4 plays for Heyward is a play the average right fielder would not make.

Agree.

[Runnin]

Heating up? He gets any hotter he may combust.

[jpx7]

There is no way 1 out of every 4 plays for Heyward is a play the average right fielder would not make.

There's (almost) always a way.

[gilesfan]

IF there is a will?

We know Heyward doesn't have that.

[Enscheff]

Seems to me that when Heyward gets to a ball another RFer wouldn't have gotten, it saves an extra base hit more often than not. Those hits typically result in, or lead to, at least 1 run, and often times multiple runs. So I don't think it is absurd to claim that every extra play Heyward (or any other good OFer) makes vs another guy in RF saves somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 run. What that value exactly is I have no idea, but I trust the guys who came up with that formula know a lot more than some poster on an internet forum who "thinks" he knows something.

If Simmons gets to a grounder another SS couldn't get, it leads to a much less troublesome single.

[50PoundHead]

One of my favorite articles on the issue of WAR. http://distilledmagazine.com/moneyball-and-big-data/

I use WAR often, but it is a stat that I think overstates the defensive impact of certain players. (even ignoring how inconsistent defensive stats are at times)

There is no way in my mind that corner outfielders (like Heyward) have the defensive impact on the game that is shown by WAR. For example, Heyward has 12 DRS this year in only 122 plays. (or 130 balls in zone)

Thanks for posting that. About the only thing I would add is that each player has to be graded as a whole and I think one thing the stats movement has done has reduced each player to "parts." I think the author's response to a comment about putting Miguel Cabrera at SS is right on the mark. You just wouldn't do that and, as a result, the guy playing SS isn't going to hit as well as Miguel Cabrera. What is gained and what is lost in that decision?? I think what has gotten lost in a lot of the statistical analysis of the past two decades is that baseball is the oddest of team games in that it is static when compared to football, basketball, and hockey and because of that teams are constructed differently. You have to perform mental gymnastics and do risk/reward at every position in a far more comprehensive way than what is done in other sports.

[gilesfan]

Seems to me that when Heyward gets to a ball another RFer wouldn't have gotten, it saves an extra base hit more often than not. Those hits typically result in, or lead to, at least 1 run, and often times multiple runs. So I don't think it is absurd to claim that every extra play Heyward (or any other good OFer) makes vs another guy in RF saves somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 run. What that value exactly is I have no idea, but I trust the guys who came up with that formula know a lot more than some poster on an internet forum who "thinks" he knows something.

If Simmons gets to a grounder another SS couldn't get, it leads to a much less troublesome single.

Simmons sees a lot more plays than Heyward does by the nature of their positions. How many non routine flyballs or balls in the gaps where he saves a base over the average rightfielder does Heyward see?

[Russ2dollas]

This helps to show the limitations of WAR. We are in a much better spot despite being significantly behind on WAR.

I agree w/ Giles on this. Maybe they should tweak WAR more and de value D on corner spots. Just like you can't add WAR up to get your team's record I don't think you can take runs saved literally. I think it is a comparative measure and a shaky one at that. Our OF is pretty good on D, except for the occasional Upton brain dead plays. I think Prado's D was way overrated and inflated his WAR last year. He was really good, but I don't think it had the game impact to push him to 6 WAR. I think the industry valued him at a 2-3 win player speaks volumes.

[jpx7]

This helps to show the limitations of WAR. We are in a much better spot despite being significantly behind on WAR.

I think that has as much to do with the Atlanta pitching in 2013 as it does with WAR — and since this thread explicitly concerns position-players, the hurlers haven't been discussed.

[gilesfan]

This helps to show the limitations of WAR. We are in a much better spot despite being significantly behind on WAR.

I agree w/ Giles on this. Maybe they should tweak WAR more and de value D on corner spots. Just like you can't add WAR up to get your team's record I don't think you can take runs saved literally. I think it is a comparative measure and a shaky one at that. Our OF is pretty good on D, except for the occasional Upton brain dead plays. I think Prado's D was way overrated and inflated his WAR last year. He was really good, but I don't think it had the game impact to push him to 6 WAR. I think the industry valued him at a 2-3 win player speaks volumes.

Yes, excellent point about Prado as well.

Here is another good article discussing some of the limitations. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/6/16/3085251/be-wary-of-war-a-cautionary-tale

And lets be honest, Heyward has been hot the past couple weeks, but this is ridiculous:

Heyward 384 PA 2.9 WAR
Holliday 433 PA 2.6 WAR
Brown 438 PA 2.4 WAR
Fowler 430 PA 2.3 WAR
Harper 336 PA 2.0 WAR

[jpx7]

Heyward 384 PA 2.9 WAR
Holliday 433 PA 2.6 WAR
Brown 438 PA 2.4 WAR
Fowler 430 PA 2.3 WAR
Harper 336 PA 2.0 WAR

The only thing this list demonstrates is that WAR correlates inversely with love-of-baseball.

[gilesfan]

All this demonstrates is that WAR correlates inversely with love-of-baseball.

haha. Good point.

[zitothebrave]

Yes, excellent point about Prado as well.

Here is another good article discussing some of the limitations. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/6/16/3085251/be-wary-of-war-a-cautionary-tale

And lets be honest, Heyward has been hot the past couple weeks, but this is ridiculous:

Heyward 384 PA 2.9 WAR
Holliday 433 PA 2.6 WAR
Brown 438 PA 2.4 WAR
Fowler 430 PA 2.3 WAR
Harper 336 PA 2.0 WAR

Have you watched Dom Brown in the OF ? Dude is a freaking lollercoaster. He almost cost the Phillies a game where they had a 4 or 5 run lead by dropping a can of corn.

Also nice try throwing wonder douce in there like he has a dog in the fight.

[Enscheff]

Simmons sees a lot more plays than Heyward does by the nature of their positions. How many non routine flyballs or balls in the gaps where he saves a base over the average rightfielder does Heyward see?

Well thats the whole point. You claim Heyward isn't saving 1 run for every 12 plays he makes, and I say maybe he is since every extra play he makes prevents an extra base hit.

A single good play by Heyward prevents much more damage than a single good play by Simmons. The fact you see Simmons make so many more good plays is precisely why you "feel" he has more of an effect on the game.

[GovClintonTyree]

One of my favorite articles on the issue of WAR. http://distilledmagazine.com/moneyball-and-big-data/

I use WAR often, but it is a stat that I think overstates the defensive impact of certain players. (even ignoring how inconsistent defensive stats are at times)

There is no way in my mind that corner outfielders (like Heyward) have the defensive impact on the game that is shown by WAR. For example, Heyward has 12 DRS this year in only 122 plays. (or 130 balls in zone)


I could not agree more. D impact is overstated. Maybe not for a SS, but for a corner OF...

[Carp]

Well thats the whole point. You claim Heyward isn't saving 1 run for every 12 plays he makes, and I say maybe he is since every extra play he makes prevents an extra base hit.

A single good play by Heyward prevents much more damage than a single good play by Simmons. The fact you see Simmons make so many more good plays is precisely why you "feel" he has more of an effect on the game.


It think the point it, it's unlikely. But defensive stats assume that anyways.

Yet another good reason why defensive stats are terrible to include in a stat that determines actual value.

[The Chosen One]

I didn't care for Heyward's defensive metrics (since the eye is the biggest factor anyway, not statistics...) in RF, but he certainly proved to me he had way more range and talent playing CF than Boss.

[BremanFan88]

I'm not sure why some want to devalue defense. Hitting isn't just the only part of the game of baseball. Defense is a major part of the game and just as important if not more important then hitting. There's a reason good fielding teams tend to make it to the playoffs. But then again some people think a football game that ends 63-62 is somehow how a "good game"... This is why the DH is coming to the NL sooner than later. The fans need their offensive fix cause that's all that seems to matter anymore.

[thewupk]

I could not agree more. D impact is overstated. Maybe not for a SS, but for a corner OF...

Why? As Enscheff stated, pretty much every good play a corner OF will make will turn an extra base hit into an out. No, they don't get the same amount of action a CF or SS does but the great plays they do save prevents big hits. And that can add up pretty quickly. Defense is important at every position.

[Carp]

I'm not sure why some want to devalue defense. Hitting isn't just the only part of the game of baseball. Defense is a major part of the game and just as important if not more important then hitting. There's a reason good fielding teams tend to make it to the playoffs. But then again some people think a football game that ends 63-62 is somehow how a "good game"... This is why the DH is coming to the NL sooner than later. The fans need their offensive fix cause that's all that seems to matter anymore.


You can value good defense but yet still realize that there is currently no good way to quantify it. When someone develops something that does that, I'll gladly get behind it.

[thewupk]

You can value good defense but yet still realize that there is currently no good way to quantify it. When someone develops something that does that, I'll gladly get behind it.

All I will say is there is a reason that the generally recognized best defenders of all time rank at the top of these defensive metric lists and players known as horrible defenders rank at the bottom. They are doing something right whether people want to admit it or not. Is it perfect? No. But it's the best we have and a lot better than the old eye ball test. Now I don't necessarily agree with their inclusion into WAR as single season defensive metrics have the SSS effect on them. It takes about 3 years of data to equal what one year of hitting data would be. So you can see large changes from year to year in defensive metrics just like you can see large changes in offensive stats from month to month. And that's without even discussing a players ability to decline in defense as they get older, etc. But WAR is designed to show what a player did that year so what are you going to do.

[cajunrevenge]

You can value good defense but yet still realize that there is currently no good way to quantify it. When someone develops something that does that, I'll gladly get behind it.

I agree. Its just a guessing game right ni w trying to mix offensive and defensive value into one stat.

I also dont like when fip is used for WAR, it is a good predictor of era but that doesn't change what has already happened. You can't say a player with a 5 ERA and 3.50 FIP has been more valuable than someone with a 3.50 ERA and 5 FIP.

[thewupk]

I agree. Its just a guessing game right ni w trying to mix offensive and defensive value into one stat.

I also dont like when fip is used for WAR, it is a good predictor of era but that doesn't change what has already happened. You can't say a player with a 5 ERA and 3.50 FIP has been more valuable than someone with a 3.50 ERA and 5 FIP.

It depends. The pitcher with a 3.50 ERA and 5 FIP could have Simmons playing short for him and the player with a 5 ERA and 3.50 FIP could have Pastornicky playing short. Defense does impact era.

[Carp]

I agree. Its just a guessing game right ni w trying to mix offensive and defensive value into one stat.

I also dont like when fip is used for WAR, it is a good predictor of era but that doesn't change what has already happened. You can't say a player with a 5 ERA and 3.50 FIP has been more valuable than someone with a 3.50 ERA and 5 FIP.


Definitely.

[Carp]

It depends. The pitcher with a 3.50 ERA and 5 FIP could have Simmons playing short for him and the player with a 5 ERA and 3.50 FIP could have Pastornicky playing short. Defense does impact era.


Sure it can, but we're talking about actual performance, which is what WAR is supposed to gauge. It might be safer bet to take the pitcher with the lower FIP moving forward, but results are what matter when talking about past performance.

[JCarbo76]

All I will say is there is a reason that the generally recognized best defenders of all time rank at the top of these defensive metric lists and players known as horrible defenders rank at the bottom. They are doing something right whether people want to admit it or not. Is it perfect? No. But it's the best we have and a lot better than the old eye ball test. Now I don't necessarily agree with their inclusion into WAR as single season defensive metrics have the SSS effect on them. It takes about 3 years of data to equal what one year of hitting data would be. So you can see large changes from year to year in defensive metrics just like you can see large changes in offensive stats from month to month. And that's without even discussing a players ability to decline in defense as they get older, etc. But WAR is designed to show what a player did that year so what are you going to do.

I think that with enough sample size defensive metrics do a pretty good job of telling you who is the best SS, the best RF etc. However, I think they do a pretty inaccurate job of quantifying runs saved, wins, etc. I will take a 4owar/1 dwar guy all day over a 1owar/4dwar guy.

[thewupk]

Sure it can, but we're talking about actual performance, which is what WAR is supposed to gauge. It might be safer bet to take the pitcher with the lower FIP moving forward, but results are what matter when talking about past performance.

Yeah. But defense can determine that performance. ERA, like wins (although not close to that level), is a team stat. Teams with crappy defenses are going to allow more runs. Earned and unearned. There is a reason the Royals lead the AL in ERA. They have the majors best defense. The Tigers have the AL's best pitching but their defense (or lack thereof) costs them several runs.

[thewupk]

I think that with enough sample size defensive metrics do a pretty good job of telling you who is the best SS, the best RF etc. However, I think they do a pretty inaccurate job of quantifying runs saved, wins, etc. I will take a 4owar/1 dwar guy all day over a 1owar/4dwar guy.

That may be true. I know the defense first guys are not as valuable on the open market.

[zitothebrave]

You can value good defense but yet still realize that there is currently no good way to quantify it. When someone develops something that does that, I'll gladly get behind it.

The problem with your statement is that there is a good way to quantify it. Sure it's not 100% accurate but it's about 90% accurate they're called linear weights.

[gilesfan]

Well thats the whole point. You claim Heyward isn't saving 1 run for every 12 plays he makes, and I say maybe he is since every extra play he makes prevents an extra base hit.

A single good play by Heyward prevents much more damage than a single good play by Simmons. The fact you see Simmons make so many more good plays is precisely why you "feel" he has more of an effect on the game.


No, it's because Simmons saves so many more plays simply by having more balls hit toward him. There is a reason SS is considered a defensive premium position and RF is not.

[gilesfan]

Have you watched Dom Brown in the OF ? Dude is a freaking lollercoaster. He almost cost the Phillies a game where they had a 4 or 5 run lead by dropping a can of corn.

Also nice try throwing wonder douce in there like he has a dog in the fight.

BC no one in their right mind would claim Heyward has been the better player in 2013. Or any of the other guys listed.

[gilesfan]

I'm not sure why some want to devalue defense. Hitting isn't just the only part of the game of baseball. Defense is a major part of the game and just as important if not more important then hitting. There's a reason good fielding teams tend to make it to the playoffs. But then again some people think a football game that ends 63-62 is somehow how a "good game"... This is why the DH is coming to the NL sooner than later. The fans need their offensive fix cause that's all that seems to matter anymore.

Defense is extremely important in a sense. And I cant stress enough the importance of defense at defensive premium spots.

But, WAR, imo, overstates defense at non premiuim positions. This is a thought that is opined by others that follow the game.

The one article I posted mentions how the Mariners thought they were gonna moneyball the league and loaded up on defense only to finish as the worst team in baseball.

[gilesfan]

Why? As Enscheff stated, pretty much every good play a corner OF will make will turn an extra base hit into an out. No, they don't get the same amount of action a CF or SS does but the great plays they do save prevents big hits. And that can add up pretty quickly. Defense is important at every position.

Not every play turns an extra base hit into an out and I doubt 1 in 4 plays is a play that Heyward turns from a run into an out. How many balls does he catch running in on the ball to catch a flyball/liner? Those aren't extra base hits. Or the balls that he may cut off in the gap, that's not saving a run, it's saving a base. (which yes, possibly could turn into a run)

[gilesfan]

I think that with enough sample size defensive metrics do a pretty good job of telling you who is the best SS, the best RF etc. However, I think they do a pretty inaccurate job of quantifying runs saved, wins, etc. I will take a 4owar/1 dwar guy all day over a 1owar/4dwar guy.

I am with you.

[zitothebrave]

Not every play turns an extra base hit into an out and I doubt 1 in 4 plays is a play that Heyward turns from a run into an out. How many balls does he catch running in on the ball to catch a flyball/liner? Those aren't extra base hits. Or the balls that he may cut off in the gap, that's not saving a run, it's saving a base. (which yes, possibly could turn into a run)

You're just showing your ignorance of advanced metrics. It's not as cut and dry as Heyward stopped 5 doubles and therefore saved 3 runs.

[zitothebrave]

BC no one in their right mind would claim Heyward has been the better player in 2013. Or any of the other guys listed.

Heyward has certainly been better than Harper. The rest is debateable. Do you take a LF who scores more runs but costs more runs in the field?

Preventing runs is as important as scoring them. You can argue that defensive metrics aren't 100% accurate and you'd have a good case. But then again you can argue that offensive numbers aren't 100% correct either. We'd be making a long cyclical argument.

[gilesfan]

You're just showing your ignorance of advanced metrics. It's not as cut and dry as Heyward stopped 5 doubles and therefore saved 3 runs.

No, I fully understand them. I'm not like you and post stats without knowing what they mean.

[gilesfan]

Heyward has certainly been better than Harper. The rest is debateable. Do you take a LF who scores more runs but costs more runs in the field?

Preventing runs is as important as scoring them. You can argue that defensive metrics aren't 100% accurate and you'd have a good case. But then again you can argue that offensive numbers aren't 100% correct either. We'd be making a long cyclical argument.


Yeah. Sure. Obviosly Heyward has 40 more PAs so that is accounted for in WAR.

But, Harper has been 14.7 runs above average offensively compared to Heywards 8.4. But War Claims Heyward has been a run better based on the theory that Heyward has been 14 runs better defensively in only 130ish chances. If you want to believe that, go ahead.

[zitothebrave]

No, I fully understand them. I'm not like you and post stats without knowing what they mean.

You clearly don't or you wouldn't be arguing the way you are.

[zitothebrave]

Yeah. Sure. Obviosly Heyward has 40 more PAs so that is accounted for in WAR.

But, Harper has been 14.7 runs above average offensively compared to Heywards 8.4. But War Claims Heyward has been a run better based on the theory that Heyward has been 14 runs better defensively in only 130ish chances. If you want to believe that, go ahead.

Harper has a 1 point advantage in wRC. Even with a few points in wRAA advantage to Harper I feel safe in saying that Heyward has saved 7 more runs than Harper has. I feel really safe saying that.

[sturg33]

This just reminds me when thethe said Harper was better than Trout


hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahaha

Oh those were good times.

[gilesfan]

You clearly don't or you wouldn't be arguing the way you are.

No, it just means you are a sheep. You don't even know how it is calculated.

[gilesfan]

This just reminds me when thethe said Harper was better than Trout


hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahaha

Oh those were good times.

Can you post where I said Harper was better than Trout? Thanks.

[thethe]

Harper was well on his way to a better age 20 season prior to getting hurt. We will see who has the last laugh on this one.

[gilesfan]

Harper has a 1 point advantage in wRC. Even with a few points in wRAA advantage to Harper I feel safe in saying that Heyward has saved 7 more runs than Harper has. I feel really safe saying that.

Heyward has a WAR of 2.9. Harper has a WAR of 2.0. Thus, if they were equal offensively (which they aren't), then you do that math on how many more runs Heyward has saved to equal almost 1 win. It's not 7, is it?

[sturg33]

Can you post where I said Harper was better than Trout? Thanks.

Sorry... can you read?

[zitothebrave]

Sorry... can you read?

No he can't. have You read the NFL thread?

[zitothebrave]

Heyward has a WAR of 2.9. Harper has a WAR of 2.0. Thus, if they were equal offensively (which they aren't), then you do that math on how many more runs Heyward has saved to equal almost 1 win. It's not 7, is it?

Well again shows your ignorance. If you want to say Harper should be a few points higher and Heyward should be a few points lower, that's fine. I don't think anyone has said WAR is perfect. Just far and away the best tool we have for total player evaluation.

[sturg33]

No he can't. have You read the NFL thread?

No. I can't take his NFL opinions seriously after the whole John Beck thing.

[gilesfan]

Sorry... can you read?

Can you tell me what you are talking about?

[gilesfan]

Well again shows your ignorance. If you want to say Harper should be a few points higher and Heyward should be a few points lower, that's fine. I don't think anyone has said WAR is perfect. Just far and away the best tool we have for total player evaluation.


Where did you get the 7 runs from? Do you think if you polled 2,000 people that follow baseball that they would they Heyward has had a better 2013 season than Harper so far? How many would believe he's been 18 runs better?

[sturg33]

Can you tell me what you are talking about?

LOL... I think you might wanna go back and re-read the exchange.

[gilesfan]

No. I can't take his NFL opinions seriously after the whole John Beck thing.

You should probably just stick to your tin foil hat club.

[sturg33]

Where did you get the 7 runs from? Do you think if you polled 2,000 people that follow baseball that they would they Heyward has had a better 2013 season than Harper so far? How many would believe he's been 18 runs better?

So you believe in the "eye test" more than the data?

[sturg33]

You should probably just stick to your tin foil hat club.

You got me bro!

[gilesfan]

So you believe in the "eye test" more than the data?


I think I explained that I believe the data which is used to calculate WAR over inflates the defensive impact of non defensive premium positions.

[sturg33]

I think I explained that I believe the data which is used to calculate WAR over inflates the defensive impact of non defensive premium positions.

So... you believe your eyes tell you he is not as valuable defensively as the data says.

[zitothebrave]

Where did you get the 7 runs from? Do you think if you polled 2,000 people that follow baseball that they would they Heyward has had a better 2013 season than Harper so far? How many would believe he's been 18 runs better?

.9 WAR difference is 9 runs. not 18 essay. And if you're going the defensive route then hell yeah he's that muc hbetter in RF than Harper has been in LF.

And the 7 runs is more than the difference in wRAA. Which is a flawed statistic as well. ALL THE STATS ARE FLAWED IF YOU ARGUE ENOUGH!!

[zitothebrave]

I think I explained that I believe the data which is used to calculate WAR over inflates the defensive impact of non defensive premium positions.

Sorry you're just wrong. Sure there are certain situations where they aren't indicative at all. Like when you have a man amoungst Boys like Gardner when he played LF where he was clearly a far and away better OF who was pushed off his position that you can say UZR overvalues him. But the rightfielders in baseball are very athletic. Pence, Parra, Victorino, Werth, Bruce, Byrd, Ichiro, etc.

[gilesfan]

So... you believe your eyes tell you he is not as valuable defensively as the data says.

I use common sense along with the past performance of teams with defensive players at offensive premium position. Do you understand the formula?

[thewupk]

Not every play turns an extra base hit into an out and I doubt 1 in 4 plays is a play that Heyward turns from a run into an out. How many balls does he catch running in on the ball to catch a flyball/liner? Those aren't extra base hits. Or the balls that he may cut off in the gap, that's not saving a run, it's saving a base. (which yes, possibly could turn into a run)

Whether he is saving actual extra base hits or saving an extra base. It all adds up. Just like woba is created using linear weights so the defensive runs saved. Each action has an estimated value in runs. It adds up.

[thewupk]

And according to fWAR Heyward has been 7 runs above average better than Harper this year. That's combing hitting, base running, and defense. He's 0.9 ahead of him in WAR due to the replacement level being factored in since Heyward has played more. Yes, I think Heyward has been that much better defensively to give him that edge over Harper. Heyward is arguably the best defensive RFer in the game and Harper is a avergish defender in left.

[Enscheff]

I use common sense along with the past performance of teams with defensive players at offensive premium position. Do you understand the formula?

If catching a flyball in the RC gap that the average RFer doesn't catch is estimated to save 0.4 runs (made up number obviously), then when Heyward makes that play he saved 0.4 runs, period.

Obviously this compares one RF to another, but isn't that the entire point of all stats? Sure, if every team stuck 3 CFers in the OF Heyward's dWAR wouldn't be as high, but then his oWAR would go up because those defensive specialists would likely hit poorly.

Do you have the same issue with inflated oWAR numbers for offensive players at defensive premium positions?

[zitothebrave]

If catching a flyball in the RC gap that the average RFer doesn't catch is estimated to save 0.4 runs (made up number obviously), then when Heyward makes that play he saved 0.4 runs, period.

Obviously this compares one RF to another, but isn't that the entire point of all stats? Sure, if every team stuck 3 CFers in the OF Heyward's dWAR wouldn't be as high, but then his oWAR would go up because those defensive specialists would likely hit poorly.

Do you have the same issue with inflated oWAR numbers for offensive players at defensive premium positions?

My guess is he'll say yes in a convoluted way so that it's not really a yes but more of a incertain extreme examples it's cool in others (when it benefits Ian Desmond for example) it's cool

For example if you take issue with an exceptional defender in RF holding value would he take issue with Desmond crushing Harper and Werth in WAR even though they're clearly the superior hitters.

[The Chosen One]

Am I the only one here who's wondering when the hell did oWAR, dWAR, SIERRA, wOBA, came out?

I mean... I've been trying to get a read on stats for a while. Years ago I was learning the importance of OPS and came to accept it. Came to accept OBP for what it was and value it. I finally learned what WAR was a few years ago, same for WHIP. Then OPS+ came out and ERA+ came out and I was like ok cool..

Now that I've finally grasped them, I see people thowing out oWAR, dWAR, SIERRA, wOBA, xFIP, GIF, JPEG, PNG, PSD and I have no idea what the hell is going on. Stats combined with other stats to make more complex stats. Man sometimes I just missed the days a win was a win and a loss was a loss... and there was no "He pitched much better than the loss indicates, because..." Yeah Teheran loses a game 1-0 because he has no run support, I am sympathetic. But I've seen guys try to argue that a 6ip, 3ER, 2BB, 5K outing in a 5-2 loss was actually a good start. It's just... too much. Too soon.

I missed the days when I knew Shane Reynolds and Russ Ortiz were not that good despite their W-L because they were getting 5 runs a game or better, while Maddux and Hampton were getting screwed and I didn't need stats to explain it to me!

[zitothebrave]

oWAR and dWAR are essentially separating the offensive and defensive components of WAR. Primarily used by bRef as offensive WAR for Fangraphs is essentially wRAA and defensive WAR is UZR.

As far as wOBA I believe it came out around 07 or so. Became more widely spread a few years ago.

SIERA Is really fun. I'ts basically FIP with batted ball factored in.

[The Chosen One]

Yeah but... I still haven't even figured out what the hell Runs Created, FIP, xFIP, and all the other crap is.

Is there gonna be a new HBP stat too? Like dHBP? Where a batter is TRYING to move out the way and gets hit, as opposed to a batter leaning in and taking the HBP?

What about analyzing managerial ejections? Will we someday analyze and calculate how important Bobby's Ejections were, by giving him Win Shares?

[gilesfan]

Sorry you're just wrong. Sure there are certain situations where they aren't indicative at all. Like when you have a man amoungst Boys like Gardner when he played LF where he was clearly a far and away better OF who was pushed off his position that you can say UZR overvalues him. But the rightfielders in baseball are very athletic. Pence, Parra, Victorino, Werth, Bruce, Byrd, Ichiro, etc.

How athletic is a 30+ year old Werth that has been awful defensively of late?

Zito, do you believe Pence is worth roughly a half a win over Heyward? Do you think Heyward is a better player than Werth this year? (.331/.403/.532) How about Nelson Cruz?

[gilesfan]

And according to fWAR Heyward has been 7 runs above average better than Harper this year. That's combing hitting, base running, and defense. He's 0.9 ahead of him in WAR due to the replacement level being factored in since Heyward has played more. Yes, I think Heyward has been that much better defensively to give him that edge over Harper. Heyward is arguably the best defensive RFer in the game and Harper is a avergish defender in left.

Wait, by your standards isn't Victorino 8 runs better defensively? Parra better? And Cody Ross, of all people, even better?

[gilesfan]

My guess is he'll say yes in a convoluted way so that it's not really a yes but more of a incertain extreme examples it's cool in others (when it benefits Ian Desmond for example) it's cool

For example if you take issue with an exceptional defender in RF holding value would he take issue with Desmond crushing Harper and Werth in WAR even though they're clearly the superior hitters.

I don't have an issue with Desmond having a higher WAR. He's playing above average defense at a defensive premium position and is either the best or 2nd best offensive SS so far. (didn't you call me a homer and say Desmond was just having a career year?) The defensive impact a SS makes is hard to quantify but infinately more important than a RFer (which is why teams often put unathletic guys with decent arms in RF) My issue isn't that Heyward isn't a great defender. Its the number they are putting on his defensive impact. Corner OFers just don't have that type of impace on games, defensively, in my opinion.

[thewupk]

Wait, by your standards isn't Victorino 8 runs better defensively? Parra better? And Cody Ross, of all people, even better?

Yes they are all better defenders then Harper. UZR is flawed in that if you have a really good center fielder then the corner outfielders will get a increase in UZR. That's been proven. So since Harper has Span next to him maybe he's actually a bad defender instead of average?

[gilesfan]

Yes they are all better defenders then Harper. UZR is flawed in that if you have a really good center fielder then the corner outfielders will get a increase in UZR. That's been proven. So since Harper has Span next to him maybe he's actually a bad defender instead of average?

THose guys are rated above Heyward. Are you saying since Heyward has played next to Bourn and now Upton (who has merely been average) then his UZR (factored in WAR) overstates his defense?

[thewupk]

THose guys are rated above Heyward. Are you saying since Heyward has played next to Bourn and now Upton (who has merely been average) then his UZR (factored in WAR) overstates his defense?

It's possible. All I really know is Heyward is a better player then Harper.

[Carp]

The problem with your statement is that there is a good way to quantify it. Sure it's not 100% accurate but it's about 90% accurate they're called linear weights.

No it's not. Attaching an arbitrary value to something that already has an inaccurate value does not make it even close to 90% accurate, which is a number you just made up anyways.

[Heyward]

Can you post where I said Harper was better than Trout? Thanks.

You said he would on scout, as well as others.

Trout da best.

[gilesfan]

You said he would on scout, as well as others.

Trout da best.

Can you link it?

[Heyward]

Harper was well on his way to a better age 20 season prior to getting hurt. We will see who has the last laugh on this one.

Barring injuries to Trout, it's him.

He doesn't have many holes in his game if any.

Elite defender, great hitter, good base runner.

He posted the first 10+ WAR since Bonds on roids. And is on pace for a 9+ WAR at 21-22, he's the best all around player in baseball.

[Heyward]

Can you link it?

I can't look at threads on scout anymore.

[Carp]

Yeah. But defense can determine that performance. ERA, like wins (although not close to that level), is a team stat. Teams with crappy defenses are going to allow more runs. Earned and unearned. There is a reason the Royals lead the AL in ERA. They have the majors best defense. The Tigers have the AL's best pitching but their defense (or lack thereof) costs them several runs.


Sure, but pitchers have more control of their ERA than that. Pitchers can control to a point how hard a ball is hit and where to. You say a pitcher is lucky because he has a good defense. Perhaps the pitcher simply has a knack for getting out of trouble. The problem with stats like FIP, is that it puts all players in a vacuum, but that isn't the way baseball played.

[thewupk]

Sure, but pitchers have more control of their ERA than that. Pitchers can control to a point how hard a ball is hit and where to. You say a pitcher is lucky because he has a good defense. Perhaps the pitcher simply has a knack for getting out of trouble. The problem with stats like FIP, is that it puts all players in a vacuum, but that isn't the way baseball played.

And the problem with ERA is that it gives the pitcher all of the credit, good or bad.

[Carp]

And the problem with ERA is that it gives the pitcher all of the credit, good or bad.

Yes I agree with that. I would never say ERA is the best stat to judge a pitcher on. But the pitcher should receive most of the credit for run prevention, though obviously not all the credit.

FIP is just not an accurate stat, and certainly not accurate enough to include in a stat that shows total value for past performance for my liking.

[zitothebrave]

Sure, but pitchers have more control of their ERA than that. Pitchers can control to a point how hard a ball is hit and where to. You say a pitcher is lucky because he has a good defense. Perhaps the pitcher simply has a knack for getting out of trouble. The problem with stats like FIP, is that it puts all players in a vacuum, but that isn't the way baseball played.

A pitcher cannot control where and how hard a pitch is. They can limit where the ball is hit but if you throw a fastball low and away a guy can still pull it for a homer, just not as likely. You also can't control if it flies 5 or 10 feet further resulting in a hit or an out.

[nsacpi]

WAR #s for Braves hitters through August 18:

Justin Upton 3.1 in 507 PA
Heyward 3.1 in 397 PA
Simmons 3.0 in 517 PA
Freeman 2.9 in 478 PA
McCann 2.7 in 302 PA

[GovClintonTyree]

A pitcher cannot control where and how hard a pitch is. They can limit where the ball is hit but if you throw a fastball low and away a guy can still pull it for a homer, just not as likely. You also can't control if it flies 5 or 10 feet further resulting in a hit or an out.

Are you serious? Now, that's an advanced metric I need to see. Here, all these years I've been thinking a pitcher can control where and how hard a pitch is.

[Carp]

A pitcher cannot control where and how hard a pitch is. They can limit where the ball is hit but if you throw a fastball low and away a guy can still pull it for a homer, just not as likely. You also can't control if it flies 5 or 10 feet further resulting in a hit or an out.

Not sure what part of "can control to a point" you don't understand. A good pitcher can easily induce a weak ground ball to one side of the infield in certain situations. It happens all the time. That doesn't mean he will do it every time, nor is that what I said.

[zitothebrave]

Not sure what part of "can control to a point" you don't understand. A good pitcher can easily induce a weak ground ball to one side of the infield in certain situations. It happens all the time. That doesn't mean he will do it every time, nor is that what I said.

No they can't. Even Greg Maddux couldn't do that with an extreme proficiency. Being better than normal is not controlling to a point. Again you can make a suggestion pitch. Like say you throw a fastball low and away set up properly sure you can increase the odds of getting a weak grounder but a good hitter could easily smack a liner the other way or crush a homer the other way.

[Carp]

No they can't. Even Greg Maddux couldn't do that with an extreme proficiency. Being better than normal is not controlling to a point. Again you can make a suggestion pitch. Like say you throw a fastball low and away set up properly sure you can increase the odds of getting a weak grounder but a good hitter could easily smack a liner the other way or crush a homer the other way.


You're so FOS.

There is plenty of evidence to suggest pitchers have plenty of control on balls put in play.

http://web.archive.org/web/20040208104252/http:/www.diamond-mind.com/articles/ipavg2.htm

[zitothebrave]

You're so FOS.

There is plenty of evidence to suggest pitchers have plenty of control on balls put in play.

http://web.archive.org/web/20040208104252/http:/www.diamond-mind.com/articles/ipavg2.htm

Clearly proving you've never played or really understand baseball. Any pitch in or near the strike zone can be put into play very hard.

[Carp]

Clearly proving you've never played or really understand baseball. Any pitch in or near the strike zone can be put into play very hard.

Clearly you didn't read the article or what I wrote. Obviously any ball can be hit hard. Nowhere did I ever dispute this. Which is why I said pitchers can control how hard a ball is hit "to a point." And there is plenty of evidence to suggest this and there are plenty of articles that say as much as well.

I guarantee I played more baseball than you ever played high school football "against top competition."

[zitothebrave]

Clearly you didn't read the article or what I wrote. Obviously any ball can be hit hard. Nowhere did I ever dispute this. Which is why I said pitchers can control how hard a ball is hit "to a point." And there is plenty of evidence to suggest this and there are plenty of articles that say as much as well.

I guarantee I played more baseball than you ever played high school football "against top competition."

And the point is very minimal. In general you can't pinpoint a pitch. You can guesstimate where it will go within a box but not pinpoint it. Even with that good accuracy, you cannot control the swing a hitter is taking. Sure you can study tendencies and so on so forth to improve your odds of producing an out. Because if a batter misses his timing by a nano second instead of weakly grounding out he could foul the pitch off or in a different miss put it in the seats. The point that pitcher can control where a ball is hit and how hard is very limited and it has much more to do with the hitter at the plate than the pitcher.

[Carp]

And the point is very minimal. In general you can't pinpoint a pitch. You can guesstimate where it will go within a box but not pinpoint it. Even with that good accuracy, you cannot control the swing a hitter is taking. Sure you can study tendencies and so on so forth to improve your odds of producing an out. Because if a batter misses his timing by a nano second instead of weakly grounding out he could foul the pitch off or in a different miss put it in the seats. The point that pitcher can control where a ball is hit and how hard is very limited and it has much more to do with the hitter at the plate than the pitcher.

It's obvious by your answer you didn't even read the article. And if you did then simply refuse to look at stats and actual evidence of why certain pitchers consistently induce much weaker contact than others. Pitchers CLEARLY have a noticeable influence on how hard a ball is hit, to an extent. And this is especially true in certain situations of an at bat.

[zitothebrave]

It's obvious by your answer you didn't even read the article. And if you did then simply refuse to look at stats and actual evidence of why certain pitchers consistently induce much weaker contact than others. Pitchers CLEARLY have a noticeable influence on how hard a ball is hit, to an extent. And this is especially true in certain situations of an at bat.

I did read the article. It points to some examples. You can find an example of pretty much anything you want to prove statistically.

[Carp]

So basically you're sticking you head in the sand or just hardcore trollin. Either way, I'm done with this argument since it's clear you have zero interest in listening to reason.

[zitothebrave]

Figured I'd bump this up.

Same 6 players trending 3 plus WAR with 3 over

Simmons 3.9
Freddie 3.4
Jason 3.1
Justin 2.9
Mac 2.9
Johnson 2.8

On the positive BJ is no longer a negative either. He's at 0.0. WOOOO. Uggla also has had a slight improvement.

To bring back from the first post

Last year

C - Mac 1.8
1B - Freeman 1.8
2B - Uggla 3.4
3B - Chipper 2.7
SS - Simmons 2.2
LF - Prado 5.6
CF - Bourn 6.1
RF - Jason 6.4

And if we do this year

C - Mac 2.9
1B Freeman 3.4
2B Uggla 1.0
3B Johnson 2.8
SS Simmons 3.9
LF Justin 2.9
CF Bossman 0.0
RF Jason 3.1

If you just go to the whole position players, last year we had a 26.3 this year we're at 25.1. What makes this year more impressive though is the offensive side. Last year we were so high largely because of a league leading 68 UZR, this year we're at a much more human (though it would be higher if Jason was healthy) 30.7. This year we're tied for 6th in th emajors in wRC+, tied for second in the NL with the Cards having a slight edge.

[zitothebrave]

Bump again.

So with only a short time left in the season it's again the haves and have nots

Freddie 4.6
Simmons 4.5
Justin 3.1
Mac 2.9
Heyward 2.9
Johnson 2.9

Imagine how good we'd be with a healthy Jason and Mac, we'd have 4 guys with a WAR near or over 4.

[zitothebrave]

Bump again.

So with only a short time left in the season it's again the haves and have nots

Freddie 4.6
Simmons 4.5
Justin 3.1
Mac 2.9
Heyward 2.9
Johnson 2.9

Imagine how good we'd be with a healthy Jason and Mac, we'd have 4 guys with a WAR near or over 4.