Did We Give Up on Juan Francisco Too Soon?

[NYCBrave]

I know, Chris Johnson is leading the league in hitting, so nobody has probably even bothered to wonder how Juan is doing in Milwaukee. But since joining the Brewers, in 191 plate appearances he's got 12 homers, an .865 OPS and hitting .257. Problem is, he's still striking out nearly 33% of his AB's, and his walk rate has only slightly increased. We didn't get much in return, and at the time it was pretty clear it wasn't working out with him in Atlanta getting part time ABs, so we might have had no other options. Thoughts?

[Tapate50]

Probably, but he cannot play short and was not gonna get those 191 ABs here. Id rather have Schafer up here with Beej struggling so badly. (not that it was either or)

[mfree80]

I know, Chris Johnson is leading the league in hitting, so nobody has probably even bothered to wonder how Juan is doing in Milwaukee. But since joining the Brewers, in 191 plate appearances he's got 12 homers, an .865 OPS and hitting .257. Problem is, he's still striking out nearly 33% of his AB's, and his walk rate has only slightly increased. We didn't get much in return, and at the time it was pretty clear it wasn't working out with him in Atlanta getting part time ABs, so we might have had no other options. Thoughts?

No. It was clear what he was and that is not what the Braves needed more of. Glad he is doing well, but he is exactly what we thought he would be. Goo guy but not a good fit.

[thethe]

We absolutely gave up on him too quickly but the Braves just had to play CJ.

[gilesfan]

It was a terribly short sighted move and a lot of people said that at the time.

[sturg33]

Yes. Francisco is a better player the CJ

[zitothebrave]

We gave up on him too soon. We're putting ourselves at risk if Johnson goes down or if he stinks next year. We may have to Mark Teixeira a trade if he doesn't hit next year. Or even wworse, start Pastornicky or Janish.

I was fine with starting Johnson over Juan, my gripe to this day is that we have doo many damned OF. We had one guy on our bench who could play SS, 3B or 2B. Obviously Juan was limited in that he could only play 3B but that's a huge ste p up over Reed or Schafer who can only play the OF. JMO one of those 2 should have been sent off and instead we should have kept Juan. Sure he has his weaknesses but I like him better than Schafer as a LHB off the bench, and if Johnson goes down I like him WAY more than Pastornicky. Only potential option at 3B that could be attractive if he can handle it would be La Stella.

[stpeteirish]

he's a platoon 1b for Milwaukee, we had no use for him in that role, they did. Think we could have gotten more, but he's be seeing very little action and taking up a valuable spot on the 25 man roster if we'd kept him.

[thethe]

THe problem with Juan on our team was that he is a guy that needs to play everyday. I don't think he will ever thrive in a part time role and that is what he was here.

I wanted him over Johnson but CJ has made me a believer.

[gilesfan]

THe problem with Juan on our team was that he is a guy that needs to play everyday. I don't think he will ever thrive in a part time role and that is what he was here.

I wanted him over Johnson but CJ has made me a believer.

The "he needs to play everyday to be effective" is a convenient excuse with little to no support.

[zitothebrave]

THe problem with Juan on our team was that he is a guy that needs to play everyday. I don't think he will ever thrive in a part time role and that is what he was here.

I wanted him over Johnson but CJ has made me a believer.

He didn't need to play everyday. He hasn't in Milwaukee. Only think playing everyday does is normalize his slumps a little faster. Juan is basically a left handed Uggla without the patience. He'll strike out a lot, not walk a lot but when he makes contact he hits the crap out of the ball.

He shouldn't have left. We're lucky Johnson has been healthy, if he had gotten hurt we'd be screwed.

[COGPK]

Nope. Glad he's gone. Let's move on and not obsess over former Braves.

[NYCBrave]

Wasn't he also horrible as a pinch hitter?

[thethe]

He didn't need to play everyday. He hasn't in Milwaukee. Only think playing everyday does is normalize his slumps a little faster. Juan is basically a left handed Uggla without the patience. He'll strike out a lot, not walk a lot but when he makes contact he hits the crap out of the ball.

He shouldn't have left. We're lucky Johnson has been healthy, if he had gotten hurt we'd be screwed.

He has essentially been an everyday player in MIL.

[emk418]

I know, Chris Johnson is leading the league in hitting, so nobody has probably even bothered to wonder how Juan is doing in Milwaukee. But since joining the Brewers, in 191 plate appearances he's got 12 homers, an .865 OPS and hitting .257. Problem is, he's still striking out nearly 33% of his AB's, and his walk rate has only slightly increased. We didn't get much in return, and at the time it was pretty clear it wasn't working out with him in Atlanta getting part time ABs, so we might have had no other options. Thoughts?

We absolutely did. It has nothing to do with CJ. I just think we gave Francisco away for nothing. I know we had roster issues but I never liked the move.

[50PoundHead]

I'm glad to see him doing well. My beef was the return we got for him. Maybe Keeling turns out to be someone, but I thought we should have received more for him.

[Hawk]

I'm glad to see him doing well. My beef was the return we got for him. Maybe Keeling turns out to be someone, but I thought we should have received more for him.

Especially since we gave up Hoover for him, which still kills me a little inside.

[Orphan Black]

What part of he was taking up a roster spot that could have better been used elsewhere do people not understand? Would it have been better if the Braves could have kept Juan...absolutely. Was it practical...absolutely not.

[gilesfan]

What part of he was taking up a roster spot that could have better been used elsewhere do people not understand? Would it have been better if the Braves could have kept Juan...absolutely. Was it practical...absolutely not.

How was it not practical? Is having 6 OFers practical? Is there really a need for Schafer and Reed Johnson? Especially when you have only 1 backup infielder.

[Heyward]

Yes. Francisco is a better player the CJ

Lol, no he's not.

[Heyward]

It was dumb to get rid of him.

But I'm not sure where he gets the AB's with Johnson starting full time.

I guess as a bench bat, should of kept him but hes similar to BJ and Uggla ala hacker while CJ isn't like that, more of a contact line drive hitter.

[Russ2dollas]

Juan didn't fit our team. We already have a ton of power, lower avg, high SO, low walk guys. I wish we could have sold higher on him b/c I do think he's talented. He didnt' have any options and CJ's approach is what our team needed.

[BremanFan88]

The myth that CJ is a contact hitter is kind of funny. The guy strikes out a lot too and has a lower walk rate than Juan. Sure he has a higher average but a BABIP over .400 will do that for you...

[Russ2dollas]

didn't say he was a contact hitter.......CJ makes less outs. I get that the BABIP is crazy high....but the braves needed more baserunners, not more power. If Prado is at 2B and Schafer his healthy all year at CF, and Simmons stops trying to hit HRs, then you keep Juan over CJ.

[Heyward]

The myth that CJ is a contact hitter is kind of funny. The guy strikes out a lot too and has a lower walk rate than Juan. Sure he has a higher average but a BABIP over .400 will do that for you...

84 times is a lot?

That's 31st in the NL with a lot of AB's.

[Carp]

Never cared for the trade to get Fat Juan. Didn't hate it. Didn't love it.

Juan is just one of those players I don't care to lose. He's never going to be a useful full time starter with a strikeout rate that high and no on base skills to speak of. He is a decent bench piece who could occasionally start and not kill you.

[BremanFan88]

84 times is a lot?

That's 31st in the NL with a lot of AB's.

If you're striking out over 20% of the time and don't have a lot of power then you are striking out a lot IMO.

[gilesfan]

84 times is a lot?

That's 31st in the NL with a lot of AB's.

Johnson strikes out over 20% of the time. 21.2% this year, 24% for his career.

[Heyward]

If you're striking out over 20% of the time and don't have a lot of power then you are striking out a lot IMO.

He's on pace for around 12-15 HR's.

Not a lot but hardly no power,

He's a line drive, gap to gap hitter.

[gilesfan]

His Iso is .145. That isn't a power hitter. There are several middle infielders with more power.

[zitothebrave]

Lol, no he's not.

Law of averages (aka not on Johnson's best season of his career) I think they're close. Juan is not as good as Johnson offensively but is better defensively. Or at least he was last year. Unfortunately for Juan though, if he starts putting on the pounds, he'll lose any value he may have.

[NinersSBChamps]

He would have taken at bats away from CJ23. He was awful here and there was no room for a player of his calibre on the bench. Good riddance like I said when he was traded away.

[yeezus]

Law of averages (aka not on Johnson's best season of his career) I think they're close. Juan is not as good as Johnson offensively but is better defensively. Or at least he was last year. Unfortunately for Juan though, if he starts putting on the pounds, he'll lose any value he may have.

Better defensively? Juan is god-awful at 1B in Milwaukee. They're wondering what the future is there, because it clearly isn't him.

Juan is not a very good player. He isn't better than CJ.

[Dalyn]

No.

[Dalyn]

Yes.

[zitothebrave]

Better defensively? Juan is god-awful at 1B in Milwaukee. They're wondering what the future is there, because it clearly isn't him.

Juan is not a very good player. He isn't better than CJ.

1B defense doesn't equal 3B defense.

[weso1]

His Iso is .145. That isn't a power hitter. There are several middle infielders with more power.

Tulo, Hanley, Uggla, Cano, Utley, Phillips, Hardy, Desmond

Your rhetoric sounds nice, but in reality there are some pretty impressive power hitting middle infielders. It's really not a knock on someone to say that they don't have more power than several middle infielders.

[GovClintonTyree]

Yes. Francisco is a better player the CJ

Not even close.

[GovClintonTyree]

He has essentially been an everyday player in MIL.

How's that working out?

Juan is a dumb player. Any sense at all and he'd have broadened his skillset, stayed in shape and learned some plate discipline. He'd have been an all-star. Instead he's a BP star (watched him hit a couple to the upper deck here in Seattle a week ago).

[GovClintonTyree]

1B defense doesn't equal 3B defense.

It's easier.

[GovClintonTyree]

The myth that CJ is a contact hitter is kind of funny. The guy strikes out a lot too and has a lower walk rate than Juan. Sure he has a higher average but a BABIP over .400 will do that for you...

Show me a hit the guy has that he shouldn't have.

Didn't think so.

BABIP is a myth.

He just hits.

[The Chosen One]

I wouldn't say BABIP is a myth, I'd just say Johnson is a statistical anomaly. I like how he can go to all fields on any pitch whether it's high, low, inside or outside. He has really good bat control from what I've seen, and a nice long swing.

He may be having a career year and we're fortunate enough to witness it.

[ESP47]

How's that working out?

Juan is a dumb player. Any sense at all and he'd have broadened his skillset, stayed in shape and learned some plate discipline. He'd have been an all-star. Instead he's a BP star (watched him hit a couple to the upper deck here in Seattle a week ago).

Couldn't you say that about every players faults? Like hey Schafer doesn't have much power...he should broaden that skillset. Or Andruw swings at too many low and away pitches...he should just quit being lazy and not do that anymore. Other than staying in shape, Juan probably doesn't have much control over the rest of that stuff. If he had the ability to bat over .300, I'm sure he'd choose to do it. If he had the ability to walk 100 times, I'm sure he'd do that too. It's not like these guys are just so hard headed that they refuse to walk or raise their batting averages. Maybe he just doesn't have good pitch recognition. Maybe his eyes don't see things the same way a guy like Chipper's did. Maybe his brain doesn't have the split second decision making that Miggy has. Some players just have it and it comes natural. Some have to work hard to get it. A guy like Eckstein probably worked harder than most players in the league, but he still couldn't hit worth a damn. Work ethic doesn't always translate to production. None of us have any idea what Juan is working on day to day. I just highly doubt that he's so hard headed that he thinks he's doing the right thing considering he's been a fringe player for years. He probably just doesn't have the ability to bat for average and walk much at the major league level.

[thewupk]

Show me a hit the guy has that he shouldn't have.

Didn't think so.

BABIP is a myth.

He just hits.

BABIP is not a myth. Some people have a poor understanding of it but it's definitely not a myth. Johnson currently has a 414 BABIP. I'm not sure most understand just how ridiculous that is. Since 1936 there have only been 4 seasons with a BABIP over .400. And the highest of those 4 is Rod Carew at 408. So Johnson is blowing that away this year. Even throwing in every year back to 1900 Johnson would rank #6 all time. People can have a high BABIP. It happens. But what Johnson is doing this year is unheard of. Johnson is a good hitter, and I will get into that in a bit, but it has it's limits.

You ask to show you some hits that he shouldn't have. Well for starters he has hit 129 ground balls this year and has a 287 batting average on those plays. Which is pretty phenomenal in and of itself. Major leaguers on average hit 229 on groundballs. Groundballs just don't wind up as hits that often which should be pretty obvious. And Johnson is not fast at all. So it's not like he's beating out a lot infield hits like Ichiro was doing in his prime. He only has 4 infield hits this year. So I would say he's getting fairly lucky on the amount of ground balls he hits that find holes and are just out of the reach of infielders.

Now that's not to say that Johnson is a poor hitter because he isn't. Yes he strikes out quite a bit but he hits a lot of line drives. And the best way to boost your overall BABIP and get hits in general is to hit a lot of line drives. His line drive % is 27.7 this year which is 4th highest in the league. So before we go any farther. Yes, Johnson should be expected to have a higher BABIP then most people since he hits a ton of line drives. But 414 is still too high for that. The 3 people hitting more line drives then him have BABIPs of 337, 380, and 380. The extra hits that Johnson seems to be getting are coming mostly from those grounders that are finding holes. And imo that's pure luck instead of skill.

Now before we end let's look at Johnson's career. Thus far he has a 24.8% LD rate which is excellent. And as one would expect his career BABIP is 363 which is slightly skewed due to what he's doing this year as it was in the 350's prior to the seasons start. Which is about what most people would expect from him. To have a high BABIP you generally have to hit a lot of line drives (like Votto) or be really fast to beat out those infield hits (like Ichiro) or be really good at both (like Trout). Johnson appears to be falling into the Votto category.

As a side note they began keeping up with LD% since 2002. And Johnson's 24.8 career mark is 9th best in that span. So he has a real talent for hitting line drives. We should expect his BABIP to still be really good going forward whether it's with the Braves or somewhere else. But anything north of 400 is just too unrealistic to expect and it will return to the mid 300s. Those grounders will eventually start being hit at people instead of a couple of steps out of their reach. But that's not to say we aren't enjoying what Chris is doing this year. But at some point it will stop whether that's in a week or next season.

BABIP is real. You just have to know what you are looking at.

[zitothebrave]

thewupk with fact bombs.

I'd like to add to his, according to bref, the current NL average for GB, LD and FB are .234/.669/.181 Johnson's stats in those same splits .287/.827/.273

Every single ball johnson is making contact with he's getting to drop in at a higher than average rate. The skepticism over Johnson has nothing to do with his abilities, I think most who are skeptical of him acknowledge they expect him to be a high BABIP guy because he hits a ton of LDs. But you don't hit that high. Johnson's hitting .208 on fly balls that aren't homers, the league average is .097. If that doesn't scream that he's getting lucky than what can. You cannot be telling me that Johnson walks up to the plate and says "I'm gonna hit a dying quail just beyond the reach of the 2B and RF" cause if he has that ability he's not a baseball player. He's a witch and he should be burned.

[gilesfan]

The .287 BA of flyballs is really telling to me. That seems to be unheard of.

No one is saying Johnson is the worst hitter in baseball. But, he's been lucky as hell this year. Unfortunately when the luck runs dry and he returns to normalcy, he's a .280 hitter with little on base skills and averagish power with bad defense.

Enjoy him now and hope he continues to run like God. Just don't be surprised when the luck evens out.

[Russ2dollas]

The .287 BA of flyballs is really telling to me. That seems to be unheard of.

No one is saying Johnson is the worst hitter in baseball. But, he's been lucky as hell this year. Unfortunately when the luck runs dry and he returns to normalcy, he's a .280 hitter with little on base skills and averagish power with bad defense.

Enjoy him now and hope he continues to run like God. Just don't be surprised when the luck evens out.

CJ's not the long term answer at 3B. But he's been a great stop gap. And he's not that expensive.

Fransico wasn't the long term answer either.

I still think Kimbrel is going to be too expensive for the Braves. And I think in the Kimbrel trade we look to get our 3B of the future, the long term answer.

Because the braves probably think they have their long term answer (5 years) at LF, CF (stuck), RF, SS, and 1B. They have to make a move to answer 2B, 3B, and maybe C. And they are likely going to need 2B and 3B to be under team control for the next 5 years to even consider being able to afford the rest of the team. Or just punt on 2B and 3B. Punting would be someone like Pastor at 2b and CJ until he's a FA.

[zitothebrave]

C well be fine at, Betancourt will at worst be a 2 WAR catcher because of his defense or Gattis will at worst be a 2 WAR C cause of his offense. Unfortunately we probably won't have close to Mac level production from either of them but it's not a big need. As far as 2B and 3B goes. La Stella or Pastor should plug one (can't have an All Star at every position) and for the other we can have stop gap types. Still praying Salcedo explodes but that seems extremely unlikely.

[jpx7]

He may be having a career year and we're fortunate enough to witness it.

This.

[50PoundHead]

CJ's not the long term answer at 3B. But he's been a great stop gap. And he's not that expensive.

Fransico wasn't the long term answer either.

I still think Kimbrel is going to be too expensive for the Braves. And I think in the Kimbrel trade we look to get our 3B of the future, the long term answer.

Because the braves probably think they have their long term answer (5 years) at LF, CF (stuck), RF, SS, and 1B. They have to make a move to answer 2B, 3B, and maybe C. And they are likely going to need 2B and 3B to be under team control for the next 5 years to even consider being able to afford the rest of the team. Or just punt on 2B and 3B. Punting would be someone like Pastor at 2b and CJ until he's a FA.

Hessman has not retired yet. There is still time!

Francisco didn't fit, but I've always wondered if there is more to the story because we surely didn't get much for him. He has big-time power potential and because of that he'll stick around for awhile because he's a LHH.

[GovClintonTyree]

BABIP is not a myth. Some people have a poor understanding of it but it's definitely not a myth. Johnson currently has a 414 BABIP. I'm not sure most understand just how ridiculous that is. Since 1936 there have only been 4 seasons with a BABIP over .400. And the highest of those 4 is Rod Carew at 408. So Johnson is blowing that away this year. Even throwing in every year back to 1900 Johnson would rank #6 all time. People can have a high BABIP. It happens. But what Johnson is doing this year is unheard of. Johnson is a good hitter, and I will get into that in a bit, but it has it's limits.

You ask to show you some hits that he shouldn't have. Well for starters he has hit 129 ground balls this year and has a 287 batting average on those plays. Which is pretty phenomenal in and of itself. Major leaguers on average hit 229 on groundballs. Groundballs just don't wind up as hits that often which should be pretty obvious. And Johnson is not fast at all. So it's not like he's beating out a lot infield hits like Ichiro was doing in his prime. He only has 4 infield hits this year. So I would say he's getting fairly lucky on the amount of ground balls he hits that find holes and are just out of the reach of infielders.

Now that's not to say that Johnson is a poor hitter because he isn't. Yes he strikes out quite a bit but he hits a lot of line drives. And the best way to boost your overall BABIP and get hits in general is to hit a lot of line drives. His line drive % is 27.7 this year which is 4th highest in the league. So before we go any farther. Yes, Johnson should be expected to have a higher BABIP then most people since he hits a ton of line drives. But 414 is still too high for that. The 3 people hitting more line drives then him have BABIPs of 337, 380, and 380. The extra hits that Johnson seems to be getting are coming mostly from those grounders that are finding holes. And imo that's pure luck instead of skill.

Now before we end let's look at Johnson's career. Thus far he has a 24.8% LD rate which is excellent. And as one would expect his career BABIP is 363 which is slightly skewed due to what he's doing this year as it was in the 350's prior to the seasons start. Which is about what most people would expect from him. To have a high BABIP you generally have to hit a lot of line drives (like Votto) or be really fast to beat out those infield hits (like Ichiro) or be really good at both (like Trout). Johnson appears to be falling into the Votto category.

As a side note they began keeping up with LD% since 2002. And Johnson's 24.8 career mark is 9th best in that span. So he has a real talent for hitting line drives. We should expect his BABIP to still be really good going forward whether it's with the Braves or somewhere else. But anything north of 400 is just too unrealistic to expect and it will return to the mid 300s. Those grounders will eventually start being hit at people instead of a couple of steps out of their reach. But that's not to say we aren't enjoying what Chris is doing this year. But at some point it will stop whether that's in a week or next season.

BABIP is real. You just have to know what you are looking at.

Respecifully disagree. Chris Johnson has mastered an approach (square balls up, flat through the zone, use the big part of the park) that results in him hitting less balls that are caught. I know he's hitting more line drives than anybody in baseball except maybe Cabrera and I don't even need to look at Fangraphs to know that.

You wouldn't have any problem saying, well, Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn and Rod Carew have high Babips because they have unique skills (hit 'em where they ain't). I think Johnson has a unique skillset. He can't call his shot like Carew could, but I saw enough ground balls with eyes from these three guys to know they could do something other guys can't.

So can Chris. He has mastered the art of the line drive. He still doesn't recognize pitches as well as some of those guys of yore, but when he recognizes (or guesses) right his swing is so flat through the zone. He hits most everything hard. And since his approach is to hit to what he calls "the big part of the ballpark", more of his batted balls fall for base hits. He's stopped hitting for intentional power; actually, he still has some nice pop, but that's not his goal. Line drives are.

It isn't luck. That theory and assertion drives me nuts. He won't hit .420 for his career on balls in play, but he'll be well, well above the norm. He is, quite simply, an excellent hitter who has refined his technique and is playing at the top of his game. And either your stat doesn't capture that or you're misinterpreting it.

I am aware my position is the debil on this board, where so many people appreciate advanced metrics. But consider what I am saying. There's something to it, even if I haven't laid it out quite correctly.

[GovClintonTyree]

Actually, I just re-read your post thewupk, and we're not too far off on our interpretations. I know he's having a great year and is probably not a .340 hitter and more than his share of hits is falling in, and that those things tend to even out.

Where I disagree, and it doesn't look like you disagree, is when people extrapolate the league average BABIP to cover everyone and dismiss a season like Chris is having as "luck". Bull****. The guy is raking. And by that, I mean hitting line drives over the course of a season about as well as anyone ever has.

Luck is the residue of hard work. He's worked hard on that approach and that swing. And our club (and his wallet) are well-rewarded for it.

[gilesfan]

Respecifully disagree. Chris Johnson has mastered an approach (square balls up, flat through the zone, use the big part of the park) that results in him hitting less balls that are caught. I know he's hitting more line drives than anybody in baseball except maybe Cabrera and I don't even need to look at Fangraphs to know that.

You wouldn't have any problem saying, well, Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn and Rod Carew have high Babips because they have unique skills (hit 'em where they ain't). I think Johnson has a unique skillset. He can't call his shot like Carew could, but I saw enough ground balls with eyes from these three guys to know they could do something other guys can't.

So can Chris. He has mastered the art of the line drive. He still doesn't recognize pitches as well as some of those guys of yore, but when he recognizes (or guesses) right his swing is so flat through the zone. He hits most everything hard. And since his approach is to hit to what he calls "the big part of the ballpark", more of his batted balls fall for base hits. He's stopped hitting for intentional power; actually, he still has some nice pop, but that's not his goal. Line drives are.

It isn't luck. That theory and assertion drives me nuts. He won't hit .420 for his career on balls in play, but he'll be well, well above the norm. He is, quite simply, an excellent hitter who has refined his technique and is playing at the top of his game. And either your stat doesn't capture that or you're misinterpreting it.

I am aware my position is the debil on this board, where so many people appreciate advanced metrics. But consider what I am saying. There's something to it, even if I haven't laid it out quite correctly.

Then how do you explain his batting average on ground balls and flyballs?

[AUTiger7222]

Wasn't he also horrible as a pinch hitter?

Yep

[thewupk]

Actually, I just re-read your post thewupk, and we're not too far off on our interpretations. I know he's having a great year and is probably not a .340 hitter and more than his share of hits is falling in, and that those things tend to even out.

Where I disagree, and it doesn't look like you disagree, is when people extrapolate the league average BABIP to cover everyone and dismiss a season like Chris is having as "luck". Bull****. The guy is raking. And by that, I mean hitting line drives over the course of a season about as well as anyone ever has.

Luck is the residue of hard work. He's worked hard on that approach and that swing. And our club (and his wallet) are well-rewarded for it.

You can be good and lucky at the same time. Johnson won't hitting near 300 on ground balls the rest of his career. And once that happens he will go back to around a 290-300 hitter.

[AUTiger7222]

You can be good and lucky at the same time. Johnson won't hitting near 300 on ground balls the rest of his career. And once that happens he will go back to around a 290-300 hitter.

So .290-.300 isn't good now?

[thewupk]

So .290-.300 isn't good now?

When did I say he wasnt a good hitter?

[GovClintonTyree]

You can be good and lucky at the same time. Johnson won't hitting near 300 on ground balls the rest of his career. And once that happens he will go back to around a 290-300 hitter.

No, he won't. Just because most do doesn't mean everybody does. I don't give a damn what the statistical regression says.

He's figured out something special. He won't likely hit .340, but neither will he snap back to .290.

I would bet that his average the next five years will be closer to .315 than it is to .290.

[thewupk]

No, he won't. Just because most do doesn't mean everybody does. I don't give a damn what the statistical regression says.

He's figured out something special. He won't likely hit .340, but neither will he snap back to .290.

I would bet that his average the next five years will be closer to .315 than it is to .290.

I would easily make any sort of bet with you in regards to his average next year.

[GovClintonTyree]

More of a rhetorical, but I would stand by it.

[gilesfan]

No, he won't. Just because most do doesn't mean everybody does. I don't give a damn what the statistical regression says.

He's figured out something special. He won't likely hit .340, but neither will he snap back to .290.

I would bet that his average the next five years will be closer to .315 than it is to .290.

So you honestly believe CJ is one of the best hitters in baseball? There aren't many that hit .300

[ChapelHillMatt]

I thought it was a mistake to let him go but it hasn't hurt us, in fact the decision helped make us a better team. Johnson has gotten more consistent AB's and has thrived because of it. Once again the Braves front office got it right.

[GovClintonTyree]

So you honestly believe CJ is one of the best hitters in baseball? There aren't many that hit .300

I do, if you take power out of the question. I believe he is one of the best hitters in baseball.

[BremanFan88]

Once again the Braves front office got it right.

Not really. They get rid of a fairly productive player for nothing. It would seem the Brewers gave Juan more consistent AB's and he's the one that has thrived just like he did last season when he was given more consistent ab's. Juan with the Brewers: wRC+ 134; CJ: 136. Juan has pretty much made the Braves front office look stupid.

[bravesnumberone]

Not really. They get rid of a fairly productive player for nothing. It would seem the Brewers gave Juan more consistent AB's and he's the one that has thrived just like he did last season when he was given more consistent ab's. Juan with the Brewers: wRC+ 134; CJ: 136. Juan has pretty much made the Braves front office look stupid.

Something tells me the Braves will survive.

[AUTiger7222]

Not really. They get rid of a fairly productive player for nothing. It would seem the Brewers gave Juan more consistent AB's and he's the one that has thrived just like he did last season when he was given more consistent ab's. Juan with the Brewers: wRC+ 134; CJ: 136. Juan has pretty much made the Braves front office look stupid.

Where was Juan Francisco going to get consistent at-bats with the Braves? You going to bench Johnson completely for Juan? If so that's stupid with the way Johnson has hit since day 1. Also Juan is playing 1B for the Brewers. You damn sure ain't gonna bench Freeman for Juan.

[AUTiger7222]

Something tells me the Braves will survive.

Yep. Some people just like to go around *****ing about everything.

[bravesnumberone]

And not only that, but just a couple weeks ago, complaints were being made about Juan's defense with the Brewers.

[BremanFan88]

I do, if you take power out of the question. I believe he is one of the best hitters in baseball.

So you're willing to take power out of the question but are willing to leave in a crazy high BABIP? It's incredibly silly to say CJ is one of the best hitters in baseball. The only thing he's got going for him is the ball falling in. That's not a skill. No player has ever been able to guide a baseball where he wants it to go and I doubt that CJ all of a sudden mastered a "skill" like that. Here's a little perspective, Cabrera, the actual best hitter in baseball, has an average of .358 with a BABIP of .363. CJ is hitting .336 with a BABIP of .412. It's nice that it's happening for the Braves but lets use some common sense when we're talking about the best hitters in baseball. You can't disregard power, striking out and the ability to walk when talking about hitting because that is apart of it too. Average is not a good base for production because a punch a judy hitter can have a similar average to a 40 homerun guy and they clearly wouldn't be in the same class of hitting ability.

[AUTiger7222]

So you're willing to take power out of the question but are willing to leave in a crazy high BABIP? It's incredibly silly to say CJ is one of the best hitters in baseball. The only thing he's got going for him is the ball falling in. That's not a skill. No player has ever been able to guide a baseball where he wants it to go and I doubt that CJ all of a sudden mastered a "skill" like that. Here's a little perspective, Cabrera, the actual best hitter in baseball, has an average of .358 with a BABIP of .363. CJ is hitting .336 with a BABIP of .412. It's nice that it's happening for the Braves but lets use some common sense when we're talking about the best hitters in baseball. You can't disregard power, striking out and the ability to walk when talking about hitting because that is apart of it too. Average is not a good base for production because a punch a judy hitter can have a similar average to a 40 homerun guy and they clearly wouldn't be in the same class of hitting ability.

What about Chris Johnson's linedrive rate? Isn't it one of the best in baseball? Isn't that a contributing factor to his insanely high BABIP?

[Heyward]

Not really. They get rid of a fairly productive player for nothing. It would seem the Brewers gave Juan more consistent AB's and he's the one that has thrived just like he did last season when he was given more consistent ab's. Juan with the Brewers: wRC+ 134; CJ: 136. Juan has pretty much made the Braves front office look stupid.

Lol, it was dumb to trade him but CJ is a better player.

[GovClintonTyree]

So you're willing to take power out of the question but are willing to leave in a crazy high BABIP? It's incredibly silly to say CJ is one of the best hitters in baseball. The only thing he's got going for him is the ball falling in. That's not a skill. No player has ever been able to guide a baseball where he wants it to go and I doubt that CJ all of a sudden mastered a "skill" like that. Here's a little perspective, Cabrera, the actual best hitter in baseball, has an average of .358 with a BABIP of .363. CJ is hitting .336 with a BABIP of .412. It's nice that it's happening for the Braves but lets use some common sense when we're talking about the best hitters in baseball. You can't disregard power, striking out and the ability to walk when talking about hitting because that is apart of it too. Average is not a good base for production because a punch a judy hitter can have a similar average to a 40 homerun guy and they clearly wouldn't be in the same class of hitting ability.

False. What he's good at is hitting line drives. And that is a measurable skill, isn't it? I can't think of a way to measure that he hits the ball hard on the ground, too, but he does that.

[GovClintonTyree]

Not really. They get rid of a fairly productive player for nothing. It would seem the Brewers gave Juan more consistent AB's and he's the one that has thrived just like he did last season when he was given more consistent ab's. Juan with the Brewers: wRC+ 134; CJ: 136. Juan has pretty much made the Braves front office look stupid.

Uh, no. He doesn't make consistent contact and has no other skills than power. He's Jack Cust with a gut and a Spanish accent.

[holden]

Yeah, it was pretty much pointless to get rid of him. Still don't understand that move.

[thethe]

Not really. They get rid of a fairly productive player for nothing. It would seem the Brewers gave Juan more consistent AB's and he's the one that has thrived just like he did last season when he was given more consistent ab's. Juan with the Brewers: wRC+ 134; CJ: 136. Juan has pretty much made the Braves front office look stupid.

Yeah, I didn't get it. I think Wren panicked a bit because the Braves weren't playing great and made a move to "shake" things up. I hated the move.

[ChapelHillMatt]

Not really. They get rid of a fairly productive player for nothing. It would seem the Brewers gave Juan more consistent AB's and he's the one that has thrived just like he did last season when he was given more consistent ab's. Juan with the Brewers: wRC+ 134; CJ: 136. Juan has pretty much made the Braves front office look stupid.

Braves have one of the best records in baseball. They cleared way for a player to play and he's one of the league leaders in hitting.

But yeah you are right, they look sooooooooo STUPID!

[ChapelHillMatt]

What about Chris Johnson's linedrive rate? Isn't it one of the best in baseball? Isn't that a contributing factor to his insanely high BABIP?

Some people are so in love with advanced stats that they fail to realize good hitting when it's right before their eyes. I believe using the whole field is a skill. If Andruw would have mastered it then he would have been a HOF caliber hitter. Chris has a good approach at the plate and that's why he's getting the ball to fall in. He doesn't try to pull outside pitches, he hits the ball where it's pitched. I don't care what his BABIP or wRC is......just watch the guy hit, he knows what he's doing. I'm getting sick and tired of people acting like he's getting lucky. Maybe he could get lucky for a month but this has been going on all year. If anyone is making anyone else look stuipid, it's Chris Johnson that is making the stathead community look foolish. AVG is a useful stat, afterall the goal of every hitter is to get base hits.

[gilesfan]

Braves have one of the best records in baseball. They cleared way for a player to play and he's one of the league leaders in hitting.

But yeah you are right, they look sooooooooo STUPID!


This makes no sense. If that's the case, what stops them from starting CJ everyday and having Juan backup the corners?

[gilesfan]

Some people are so in love with advanced stats that they fail to realize good hitting when it's right before their eyes. I believe using the whole field is a skill. If Andruw would have mastered it then he would have been a HOF caliber hitter. Chris has a good approach at the plate and that's why he's getting the ball to fall in. He doesn't try to pull outside pitches, he hits the ball where it's pitched. I don't care what his BABIP or wRC is......just watch the guy hit, he knows what he's doing. I'm getting sick and tired of people acting like he's getting lucky. Maybe he could get lucky for a month but this has been going on all year. If anyone is making anyone else look stuipid, it's Chris Johnson that is making the stathead community look foolish. AVG is a useful stat, afterall the goal of every hitter is to get base hits.


FYI, guys have entire years that are lucky or unlucky. He strikes out a lot, doesn't walk or hit for power. His LD%should keep hima t a respectable BA, but he's not a >.300 hitter.

[ChapelHillMatt]

This makes no sense. If that's the case, what stops them from starting CJ everyday and having Juan backup the corners?

I don't think either player would have performed as well as they have if they both remained Braves. I believe they would have continued to split playing time. Both players needed every day AB's to succeed. And make no mistake about it Chris Johnson has succeeded and it has nothing to do with him getting lucky.

[GovClintonTyree]

FYI, guys have entire years that are lucky or unlucky. He strikes out a lot, doesn't walk or hit for power. His LD%should keep hima t a respectable BA, but he's not a >.300 hitter.

Yes he is! My God, he's done it in prior years, he's hitting three-****ing-forty, and he'll do it again. Your advanced metrics are for **** if they can't 1)acknowledge what's happening now and 2) have room to create a range of possible outcomes in the future.

You can't just say he's not a .300 hitter - he ****ing is! He's hitting .340! Has been before! Will be again! .290 career! Should go higher!

[GovClintonTyree]

Some people are so in love with advanced stats that they fail to realize good hitting when it's right before their eyes. I believe using the whole field is a skill. If Andruw would have mastered it then he would have been a HOF caliber hitter. Chris has a good approach at the plate and that's why he's getting the ball to fall in. He doesn't try to pull outside pitches, he hits the ball where it's pitched. I don't care what his BABIP or wRC is......just watch the guy hit, he knows what he's doing. I'm getting sick and tired of people acting like he's getting lucky. Maybe he could get lucky for a month but this has been going on all year. If anyone is making anyone else look stuipid, it's Chris Johnson that is making the stathead community look foolish. AVG is a useful stat, afterall the goal of every hitter is to get base hits.

It's exhausting dealing with statheads. Like talking to a wall. Boys, your **** ain't gospel, no matter how definitively you sling it out there.

[zitothebrave]

Yes he is! My God, he's done it in prior years, he's hitting three-****ing-forty, and he'll do it again. Your advanced metrics are for **** if they can't 1)acknowledge what's happening now and 2) have room to create a range of possible outcomes in the future.

You can't just say he's not a .300 hitter - he ****ing is! He's hitting .340! Has been before! Will be again! .290 career! Should go higher!

Johnson only hit .300 once before this year. His career average even with this year is .290

[GovClintonTyree]

Johnson only hit .300 once before this year. His career average even with this year is .290

Over four years. Two of them were .300.

Never mind, stathead. I know there's no room for outliers in your world.

[gilesfan]

Yes he is! My God, he's done it in prior years, he's hitting three-****ing-forty, and he'll do it again. Your advanced metrics are for **** if they can't 1)acknowledge what's happening now and 2) have room to create a range of possible outcomes in the future.

You can't just say he's not a .300 hitter - he ****ing is! He's hitting .340! Has been before! Will be again! .290 career! Should go higher!

Completely lost

[GovClintonTyree]

Completely lost

Lost? You're delusional. A guy that's hitting over .300 is a .300 hitter. Except in mom's basement, where reality can be anything you want it to be.

What's really irritating is the groupthink imperative around here. Don't question advanced metrics, no matter how badly they're misused, or you're a Luddite. I'm not. I just think if you look at the numbers too long, you don't see the forest for the trees.

[gilesfan]

Lost? You're delusional. A guy that's hitting over .300 is a .300 hitter. Except in mom's basement, where reality can be anything you want it to be.

What's really irritating is the groupthink imperative around here. Don't question advanced metrics, no matter how badly they're misused, or you're a Luddite. I'm not. I just think if you look at the numbers too long, you don't see the forest for the trees.

So isBJ a 190 hitter, he's hitting .190.

BABIP isnt really an advanced metric. And how is it misused?

[gilesfan]

In the last 4 years, the league leader in BABIP is Votto at .369. But Johnson should be able to maintain his .412?

[GovClintonTyree]

So isBJ a 190 hitter, he's hitting .190.

BABIP isnt really an advanced metric. And how is it misused?

Yes. It's misused.

Incorrect. It is an advanced metric.

[GovClintonTyree]

In the last 4 years, the league leader in BABIP is Votto at .369. But Johnson should be able to maintain his .412?

Never said that. Never.

[gilesfan]

Yes. It's misused.

Incorrect. It is an advanced metric.


How is it misused?

[GovClintonTyree]

Night, Giles.

[ChapelHillMatt]

It's misused because people don't use it as a guide, they use it as gospel. If someone has a high BABIP it means they aren't very good and are just lucky and if someone has a low BABIP they are just unlucky and will turn it around. Players with a high BABIP never get the respect the deserve by statheads who think it's a perfect stat. They've been predicting the regression of Chris Johnson since April because of this stat and they have been proven wrong. They won't admit it though, they have too much pride. They decide it's better to just change their argument and say he can get lucky for an entire year but next year he will be back to being terrible. What's wrong with just coming out and saying I was wrong and Chris Johnson has been incredible for us this year? Is it really that hard? Why do people think they always have to be right?

[zitothebrave]

It's misused because people don't use it as a guide, they use it as gospel. If someone has a high BABIP it means they aren't very good and are just lucky and if someone has a low BABIP they are just unlucky and will turn it around. Players with a high BABIP never get the respect the deserve by statheads who think it's a perfect stat. They've been predicting the regression of Chris Johnson since April because of this stat and they have been proven wrong. They won't admit it though, they have too much pride. They decide it's better to just change their argument and say he can get lucky for an entire year but next year he will be back to being terrible. What's wrong with just coming out and saying I was wrong and Chris Johnson has been incredible for us this year? Is it really that hard? Why do people think they always have to be right?

I don't think anyone truly into advanced metrics looks at Johnson's BABIP and says that he shoudl suck. Lots of other factors are involved. i'm pretty sure everyone who's said that Johnson will eventually come down (and he will, whether it's this year or next or the one after that) is saying that he will because he's performing at an impossible level.

Since 1945, only 4 players have had a season with a BABIP over .400. Roberto Clemente, Manny Ramirez, Jose Hernandez, and Rod Carew. Carew finished with a .408 as the high man. If you think Johnson is a better hitter than Rod Carew well then have I got the Bridge for you. Sarcastic comments aside, since the end of WWII the highest BABIP of anyone with a serious sample are Rod Carew and Derek Jeter who have a career average of .359 and .354. And Johnson is not way better than either of those 2 to say he'll be a .400 BABIP guy his whole career.

We're not talking about say Freeman, who has a high BABIP of .365. That's not out of the question that he can hang near that level, especially since his LD% is right around Chris Johnson's and he has a lower IFFB% (aka balls that are almost guaranteed outs)

BABIP is highly misunderstood because it's not something you can just look at. I forget who I had a discussion with this about before when he said Gattis was unlucky because of his BABIP and I pointed out his low LD%, high FB% and lack of speed don't lend themselves to a high BABIP and he's probably not far from where he should be.

[JCarbo76]

I don't think anyone truly into advanced metrics looks at Johnson's BABIP and says that he shoudl suck. Lots of other factors are involved. i'm pretty sure everyone who's said that Johnson will eventually come down (and he will, whether it's this year or next or the one after that) is saying that he will because he's performing at an impossible level.

Since 1945, only 4 players have had a season with a BABIP over .400. Roberto Clemente, Manny Ramirez, Jose Hernandez, and Rod Carew. Carew finished with a .408 as the high man. If you think Johnson is a better hitter than Rod Carew well then have I got the Bridge for you. Sarcastic comments aside, since the end of WWII the highest BABIP of anyone with a serious sample are Rod Carew and Derek Jeter who have a career average of .359 and .354. And Johnson is not way better than either of those 2 to say he'll be a .400 BABIP guy his whole career.

We're not talking about say Freeman, who has a high BABIP of .365. That's not out of the question that he can hang near that level, especially since his LD% is right around Chris Johnson's and he has a lower IFFB% (aka balls that are almost guaranteed outs)

BABIP is highly misunderstood because it's not something you can just look at. I forget who I had a discussion with this about before when he said Gattis was unlucky because of his BABIP and I pointed out his low LD%, high FB% and lack of speed don't lend themselves to a high BABIP and he's probably not far from where he should be.

All that is true. That said in now 1725 career PAS, CJ has a BABIP of .365. That's getting to be a pretty fair sample size.

[zitothebrave]

All that is true. That said in now 1725 career PAS, CJ has a BABIP of .365. That's getting to be a pretty fair sample size.

Never said he couldn't have a very high BABIP. Just impossible to maintain a .420 BABIP since not even guys like Cobb sniffed that level for their career.

[gilesfan]

It's misused because people don't use it as a guide, they use it as gospel. If someone has a high BABIP it means they aren't very good and are just lucky and if someone has a low BABIP they are just unlucky and will turn it around. Players with a high BABIP never get the respect the deserve by statheads who think it's a perfect stat. They've been predicting the regression of Chris Johnson since April because of this stat and they have been proven wrong. They won't admit it though, they have too much pride. They decide it's better to just change their argument and say he can get lucky for an entire year but next year he will be back to being terrible. What's wrong with just coming out and saying I was wrong and Chris Johnson has been incredible for us this year? Is it really that hard? Why do people think they always have to be right?


It depends on the level of the BABIP. SOme guys have high ones. But over .400 is u sustainable.

Joey Votto has a high BABIap, does he not get the credit he deserves?

Any stathead(or anyone) that claims a player can't be lucky for an entire year is simply wrong.

Chris Johnson has been really good this year offensively. Much better than anyone expected. But with his style of hitting, he simply will not be able to sustain the level he hit this year. And if his BABiP drops to .350ish or below, he's is ply not an asset.

[holden]

Jason Heyward is a pretty good example of the utility of BABIP.

[ChapelHillMatt]

Any stathead(or anyone) that claims a player can't be lucky for an entire year is simply wrong.



I don't see how it's possible. This is a game played everyday for 6 months. You accumulate over 550 AB's. If you hit 330 you must be doing something right. To suggest it's nothing but luck discredits the performance of the player and is a thought process I'll never understand. Once again you guys are making me glad I don't get bogged down with numbers. I couldn't enjoy Chris Johnson's play if I thought it was nothing but luck. There has to be some skill involved to perform as well as he has.

[zitothebrave]

I don't see how it's possible. This is a game played everyday for 6 months. You accumulate over 550 AB's. If you hit 330 you must be doing something right. To suggest it's nothing but luck discredits the performance of the player and is a thought process I'll never understand. Once again you guys are making me glad I don't get bogged down with numbers. I couldn't enjoy Chris Johnson's play if I thought it was nothing but luck. There has to be some skill involved to perform as well as he has.

It's not that there's no skill involved with what Johnson is doing. There's also a lot of luck as well. As far as possible to be lucky over a course of a season, of course it is entirely possible. Think of it this way. 600 PA is a large sample that should normalize most tendencies, but it doesn't. Let's look at Jeff Francoeur's career. His career BABIP basically is .300. He was almost never between .290-.320 his BABIP by season are .337 .284 .337 .274 .305 .270 .323 .272 .261

Fluctuation in BABIP year to year is normal.

And Johnson absolutely has been lucky. You dont' hit as many dying quails and seeing-eye grounders as he does on skill.

[CJC]

Zito...

Both Johnson and Freeman are top 5 in LD% this season.

Everyone in the top five except for Chris Davis has a BABIP of .365 or higher. If you hit a lot of line drives, you will carry a higher BABIP and AVG. That is what is happening with Johnson (and Freeman).

[zitothebrave]

Zito...

Both Johnson and Freeman are top 5 in LD% this season.

Everyone in the top five except for Chris Davis has a BABIP of .365 or higher. If you hit a lot of line drives, you will carry a higher BABIP and AVG. That is what is happening with Johnson (and Freeman).

I've never said that Johnson shouldn't have a BABIP that's high. He just shouldn't have a BABIP as high as he does now. If you read back on the last page or the page before I believe I said that a BABIP around Freeman's level is more expected.

Again no one who is really into stats acknowledges Johnson has the skill fo ra high BABIP, jsut not way higher than anyone since WWII.

[CJC]

And Johnson absolutely has been lucky. You dont' hit as many dying quails and seeing-eye grounders as he does on skill.

See, that's where you are wrong... He's not hitting bloop singles all year.

As I said before, he's got a top 5 LD%.
His batted ball speed is high as evidenced by http://www.hittrackeronline.com/top_sob.php where he hit a HR with an exit speed of 114.5 MPH.

His BABIP is up because he's hitting the ball harder, not because of luck.

[zitothebrave]

See, that's where you are wrong... He's not hitting bloop singles all year.

As I said before, he's got a top 5 LD%.
His batted ball speed is high as evidenced by http://www.hittrackeronline.com/top_sob.php where he hit a HR with an exit speed of 114.5 MPH.

His BABIP is up because he's hitting the ball harder, not because of luck.

I'm not gonna discuss these points since you don't seem to be reading back, I'll just post some things I said before

Since 1945, only 4 players have had a season with a BABIP over .400. Roberto Clemente, Manny Ramirez, Jose Hernandez, and Rod Carew. Carew finished with a .408 as the high man. If you think Johnson is a better hitter than Rod Carew well then have I got the Bridge for you. Sarcastic comments aside, since the end of WWII the highest BABIP of anyone with a serious sample are Rod Carew and Derek Jeter who have a career average of .359 and .354. And Johnson is not way better than either of those 2 to say he'll be a .400 BABIP guy his whole career.

We're not talking about say Freeman, who has a high BABIP of .365. That's not out of the question that he can hang near that level, especially since his LD% is right around Chris Johnson's and he has a lower IFFB% (aka balls that are almost guaranteed outs)

I'd like to add to his, according to bref, the current NL average for GB, LD and FB are .234/.669/.181 Johnson's stats in those same splits .287/.827/.273

Every single ball johnson is making contact with he's getting to drop in at a higher than average rate. The skepticism over Johnson has nothing to do with his abilities, I think most who are skeptical of him acknowledge they expect him to be a high BABIP guy because he hits a ton of LDs. But you don't hit that high. Johnson's hitting .208 on fly balls that aren't homers, the league average is .097. If that doesn't scream that he's getting lucky than what can. You cannot be telling me that Johnson walks up to the plate and says "I'm gonna hit a dying quail just beyond the reach of the 2B and RF" cause if he has that ability he's not a baseball player. He's a witch and he should be burned.

[CJC]

First: I'm not arguing that Johnson is in the class of Clemente, Roided Manny, or Carew for a career. So lets dispense with that bit of hyperbole, shall me? I also did not argue that Johnson is going to be a .400+ BABIP guy for the rest of his career. He is capable of hitting .300 for a sustained period, which is what I will argue.

Johnson had a .387 BABIP in almost 100 games in 2010. His line drive rate has increase in the last two season, as has his number of plate appearances. Given he experience level, it is POSSIBLE that he is CAPABLE of hitting .300 for several season during his PEAK (which he is probably in now).

To aid. His K% is at a career low, he's never been under 24% on a season, this year he's at 20.9% That's a significant movement. I propose that point to a change is his approach.

[zitothebrave]

First: I'm not arguing that Johnson is in the class of Clemente, Roided Manny, or Carew for a career. So lets dispense with that bit of hyperbole, shall me? I also did not argue that Johnson is going to be a .400+ BABIP guy for the rest of his career. He is capable of hitting .300 for a sustained period, which is what I will argue.

Johnson had a .387 BABIP in almost 100 games in 2010. His line drive rate has increase in the last two season, as has his number of plate appearances. Given he experience level, it is POSSIBLE that he is CAPABLE of hitting .300 for several season during his PEAK (which he is probably in now).

To aid. His K% is at a career low, he's never been under 24% on a season, this year he's at 20.9% That's a significant movement. I propose that point to a change is his approach.

You're ignoring a whole collection of points.

As far as sustaining .300.

Let's put a totally optimistic approach on a 600 PA season for Johnson

We're gonna take his career average BABIP since some years he'll be up some he'll be down, I'll even give the benefit of the doubt because this is an up year

So taking his career high in BB% of 5.9% and career low in K% of 20.9% we can say he has 35 walks and 125Ks we'll also take his career best HR/PA giving him 18 homers. Also sprinkle in his 5 HBP per 600 PA and 5 sacrifices. so that mean that he puts into play 417 balls that can be fielded. Apply his BABIP we get 152 hits. So he has a total of 170 hits in 555 AB or a .306 average.

That's being totally optimistic of course. Not going off of his current HR rate which is about 15 per 600 which would knock off 2 hits lowering his average still, or going off his career K rate since maybe he made a change, or maybe he's just having a good year in his K rate. We don't really know.

My point is that being totally optimistic with Johnson we see he's barely a .300 hitter. If you're slightly pessimistic and take an objective approach you'd say he's a .280-.300 hitter normally. Some years below that some years above ti but his average will fall into that range. Probably right around .290.

[GovClintonTyree]

See, that's where you are wrong... He's not hitting bloop singles all year.

As I said before, he's got a top 5 LD%.
His batted ball speed is high as evidenced by http://www.hittrackeronline.com/top_sob.php where he hit a HR with an exit speed of 114.5 MPH.

His BABIP is up because he's hitting the ball harder, not because of luck.

You're confusing the statheads with stats that don't conform to their long-held beliefs. The cognitive dissonance is palpable.

And richly ironic. Thank you. I knew this was true. Should have figured somebody was measuring it.

So they're saying he won't likely hit .340 again and using a BABIP analysis, using the same Rod Carew data points in case we didn't hear them the first forty-six times, to back it up again.

I could have looked at his batting average and figured that out without BABIP.

Then he does the same long analysis looking backward and assuming CJ hasn't had any growth or improvement to predict he'll hit .290-300. Brilliant.

My analysis, derived from 40 years of watching, playing, and coaching the game, goes something like "he's been up four years, had a .300 year, will hit .330 this year, is spraying line drives all over the park, and he's hitting the ball hard, gap to gap. Beautiful swing, flat through the zone, gives him a long time to square up pitches. Very consistent. The guy's for real. I could see him hitting .310 over the next five years."

And because my opinion uses no advanced metrics, it is ridiculed by Zito and Giles. But guess what, guys? It's as valid as yours. Maybe more, because I'm able to project trends and improvement, rather than being chained to your rigid statistical methodology.

Trust me, I am more than capable of getting as deep into the numbers as I care to. I just don't. Doesn't make me a Luddite or someone incapable of understanding your metrics (I do). I just don't think a pure statistical analysis gives you the whole picture.

Stats should augment your understanding of the game, not be your understanding. It's played by humans, and you cannot always quantify their skills, behavior, aptitude nor the changes thereof. Some will defy logic. I think this guy is going to be better going forward than you do. Doesn't make either one of us right or wrong, but stop pounding the same arguments. We got it.

[zitothebrave]

Johnson will hit .310 for the next 5 years. Lulz

[gilesfan]

I don't see how it's possible. This is a game played everyday for 6 months. You accumulate over 550 AB's. If you hit 330 you must be doing something right. To suggest it's nothing but luck discredits the performance of the player and is a thought process I'll never understand. Once again you guys are making me glad I don't get bogged down with numbers. I couldn't enjoy Chris Johnson's play if I thought it was nothing but luck. There has to be some skill involved to perform as well as he has.

Why can't you enjoy a player if you believe he is lucky?

Just some examples:

Dexter Fowler hit .300 last year due to his league leading .390 BABIP. His BABIP has dropped to .320 this year. (.267 BA)


Buster Posey BABIP last 3 years: .326, .368, .316
Montero .317, .362, .272
Bonafacio .372, .325, .280
Avila .366, .313, .255

And the list goes on and on and on. Players have seasons where the balls just drop. Chris Johnson the last 3 years: .317, .354, .410. People don't realize the small difference there is in hitting .280 and hitting .300. Johnson is hitting .335 this year. Take away just 1 bloop hit per week and he's hitting .280. This is the reason batting average is so volatile and in short samples is a terrible gauge. It's not difficult to appreciate a players performance while realizing that he's been pretty lucky for the year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-johnson-and-great-players/

The issue with Johnson is that he's really a 1 skill type of player. He's skill (which is he good at) is hitting line drives. Defense, power, speed, patience, contact rate are all below average. So if he has a season with a BABIP in the low .300s, it's going to be an awful season. And to be clear, hitting line drives doesn't neccessarily mean you will always have a high batting average. See the top 15 for 2013:

# Name Team BABIP LD% BA
1 James Loney Rays 0.337 29.30% 0.310
2 Joey Votto Reds 0.375 28.20% 0.316
3 Freddie Freeman Braves 0.366 27.70% 0.309
4 Chris Johnson Braves 0.41 27.50% 0.335
5 Joe Mauer Twins 0.381 27.30% 0.322
6 Matt Carpenter Cardinals 0.347 26.80% 0.312
7 Howie Kendrick Angels 0.344 26.80% 0.301
8 Allen Craig Cardinals 0.361 26.40% 0.310
9 Austin Jackson Tigers 0.32 26.20% 0 261
10 Jhonny Peralta Tigers 0.379 25.90% 0.305
11 Jason Castro Astros 0.341 25.90% 0.267
12 Paul Konerko White Sox 0.26 25.90% 0.240
13 Gregor Blanco Giants 0.312 25.70% 0.254
14 Jay Bruce Reds 0.334 25.70% 0.270
15 Nate McLouth Orioles 0.306 25.50% 0.272
Average 0.345 26.7% 0.292


As a little exercise:

Take away 5 hits from Johnson, here are his numbers: .322/.360/.460
10- .309/.348/.447
15- .296/.336/.434
20- .283/.324/.421

[gilesfan]

Zito...If you hit a lot of line drives, you will carry a higher BABIP and AVG.

Not sure if you can read the table I posted, but this isn't true.

[gilesfan]

See, that's where you are wrong... He's not hitting bloop singles all year.

As I said before, he's got a top 5 LD%.
His batted ball speed is high as evidenced by http://www.hittrackeronline.com/top_sob.php where he hit a HR with an exit speed of 114.5 MPH.

His BABIP is up because he's hitting the ball harder, not because of luck.


Johnson has had tons of bloop singles. Don't of balls pulled into the hole. Do you realize, he's on made 2 outs to LF this season? That is unheard of. He had at the very least 2 bloop singles over the weekend.

I don't understand your support of him hitting the ball harder. He hit a homer with a speed of 114.5....that means he's hitting the ball harder this year? His average speed off the bat is virtually identical the past 3 years.

[gilesfan]

I'd like to add to his, according to bref, the current NL average for GB, LD and FB are .234/.669/.181 Johnson's stats in those same splits .287/.827/.273



Nevermind, found it

[Temo]

Listen, the stats say dude's an above-average hitter for his career, but he can't play a lick of defense. If you wanna say his defense is better than awful, then maybe I'll entertain that idea. It's got merit, since defensive stats aren't infallible.

There is nothing in his stats however that say he'll be a better than above-average hitter going forward. Just solidly above-average. .290/.330/.440 going forward is my bet.

[gilesfan]

Listen, the stats say dude's an above-average hitter for his career, but he can't play a lick of defense. If you wanna say his defense is better than awful, then maybe I'll entertain that idea. It's got merit, since defensive stats aren't infallible.

There is nothing in his stats however that say he'll be a better than above-average hitter going forward. Just solidly above-average. .290/.330/.440 going forward is my bet.

That looks about right.

[JCarbo76]

Listen, the stats say dude's an above-average hitter for his career, but he can't play a lick of defense. If you wanna say his defense is better than awful, then maybe I'll entertain that idea. It's got merit, since defensive stats aren't infallible.

There is nothing in his stats however that say he'll be a better than above-average hitter going forward. Just solidly above-average. .290/.330/.440 going forward is my bet.

To quote Seinfeld, "Not that there's anything wrong with that", especially if his defense continues to be OK, which it is. Also, especially at his cost for the next 3 years.

[ChapelHillMatt]

A 290 hitter is a hitter I'd be fine with in this lineup, 290 is very good. Regardless of what you think about what he's going to do going forward, the bottom line is this year he's hitting 330 and is a big reason why we are running away with the division. Give the guy credit for having a tremendous year, it isn't hard.

[gilesfan]

His defense has not been ok though. He's at -5 runs despite playing with the best defensive SS in the league.

[BRule]

Can't wait for May next year for people to start posting: "What can we get for Chris Johnson"

[Temo]

A 290 hitter is a hitter I'd be fine with in this lineup, 290 is very good. Regardless of what you think about what he's going to do going forward, the bottom line is this year he's hitting 330 and is a big reason why we are running away with the division. Give the guy credit for having a tremendous year, it isn't hard.

Agreed, 100%. He's havign a great year, and he's an above-average hitter. With Simmons playing next to him, defense is a little less important for him. Good to have him on the team.

[JCarbo76]

His defense has not been ok though. He's at -5 runs despite playing with the best defensive SS in the league.

His defense has been OK, regardless of what the very suspect defensive metrics say.

[gilesfan]

His defense has been OK, regardless of what the very suspect defensive metrics say.


It's not just metrics. Metrics show what people around baseball see. His range is almost non existent.

[JCarbo76]

It's not just metrics. Metrics show what people around baseball see. His range is almost non existent.

I understand he's no Brooks Robinson. But he's defense has been OK, even by the stat measurement, and more importantly, even by the stat measurement, has steadily improved over the season, probably due to him playing day in and day out for the first time in his career.

And by my eyeball test, having watched probably watched 80% of all the games this season, he's been OK.

[Temo]

Having only watched 20% of the games this year, I have to say that he looks like a statue to me, but when he gets his hands on a ball he doesn't frequently eff it up.

[CJC]

Johnson has had tons of bloop singles. Don't of balls pulled into the hole. Do you realize, he's on made 2 outs to LF this season? That is unheard of. He had at the very least 2 bloop singles over the weekend.

I don't understand your support of him hitting the ball harder. He hit a homer with a speed of 114.5....that means he's hitting the ball harder this year? His average speed off the bat is virtually identical the past 3 years.

He also has dramatically reduced his K-Rate and improved his LD%. He carried a high BABIP in 2010 as well. Also, can you link me to the Batted Ball speed? I looked all over for it and only found the HR numbers.

I think there is a happy middle ground here because 1. I'm not saying Johnson is a peak .330 hitter, I do think there is some luck in his AVG this year. 2. I think Johnson can be a .300 hitter for 2-3 more years, depending on when he loses bat speed. When he loses it, it's pretty much over for him. For that window he is likely to hit in the .290 to .310 range.

[gilesfan]

He also has dramatically reduced his K-Rate and improved his LD%. He carried a high BABIP in 2010 as well. Also, can you link me to the Batted Ball speed? I looked all over for it and only found the HR numbers.

I think there is a happy middle ground here because 1. I'm not saying Johnson is a peak .330 hitter, I do think there is some luck in his AVG this year. 2. I think Johnson can be a .300 hitter for 2-3 more years, depending on when he loses bat speed. When he loses it, it's pretty much over for him. For that window he is likely to hit in the .290 to .310 range.

Yes, he dropped his K-rate and increased line drive rate. There are many players with outlying line drive ratios for a year or 2. The batted ball speed was in the link you posted.

Johnson is also hitting more groundballs than he has in the pst. And somehow hitting .277 on them when league average is around .240. But, that's not even the big one. Johnson has decreased his flyball rate, but is somehow hitting .269 on flyballs.

The problem with Johnson is that even if he becomes a .300 hitter, he may only be a 1-2 WAR player bc of his lack of other skills. If he hits lower, he's terrible.

[GovClintonTyree]

Yes, he dropped his K-rate and increased line drive rate. There are many players with outlying line drive ratios for a year or 2. The batted ball speed was in the link you posted.

Johnson is also hitting more groundballs than he has in the pst. And somehow hitting .277 on them when league average is around .240. But, that's not even the big one. Johnson has decreased his flyball rate, but is somehow hitting .269 on flyballs.

The problem with Johnson is that even if he becomes a .300 hitter, he may only be a 1-2 WAR player bc of his lack of other skills. If he hits lower, he's terrible.

It's not improvement. Ladidabip says that from birth to retirement, players do not improve. Therefore, taking his finkleheimer percentage into account, clearly, Chris Johnson's line drive percentage is an outlier, no more.

[gilesfan]

It's not improvement. Ladidabip says that from birth to retirement, players do not improve. Therefore, taking his finkleheimer percentage into account, clearly, Chris Johnson's line drive percentage is an outlier, no more.

Just don't cry if CJ hits .285 next year.

[jpx7]

It's not improvement. Ladidabip says that from birth to retirement, players do not improve. Therefore, taking his finkleheimer percentage into account, clearly, Chris Johnson's line drive percentage is an outlier, no more.

Useful stuff here.

[GovClintonTyree]

Useful stuff here.

Thank you, thank you. I'll be here all week.

[GovClintonTyree]

Just don't cry if CJ hits .285 next year.

Yeah, not a problem. Same to you if he hits .300 again, confounding the Babiposters once again.

[CJC]

The batted ball speed was in the link you posted.

Sorry to ask you to chase a goose, but I really don't see anything other that HR SOB. I'd really like to see Johnson's Batted Ball speed over the last 4 years to see if he's hitting the ball harder.

[Temo]

Yeah, not a problem. Same to you if he hits .300 again, confounding the Babiposters once again.

Ok, guys... the difference between .285 and .300 over 550 AB is about 8 hits. Negligible difference. It's like none of you have seen Bull Durham.

Personally, I think predicting anything from .270-.310 for the dude is reasonable.

[gilesfan]

Ok, guys... the difference between .285 and .300 over 550 AB is about 8 hits. Negligible difference. It's like none of you have seen Bull Durham.

Personally, I think predicting anything from .270-.310 for the dude is reasonable.

That was my point earlier about the small difference.

Even if he hits .300, he may be a sub 2 WAR player.

[ChapelHillMatt]

I have no problem with his defense, it looks like he makes most of the plays hit his way to me. Is he a gold glover? Does he have great range? No but he's not terrible with the glove.

[sturg33]

People always say he is not terrible, and I once again ask to what standards?

I judge players against league standards, and by judging him against other 3rd basemen, he is a bad defensive player.

ChapelHillMatt, who do you think is worse than CJ defensively at third base in MLB?

[ChapelHillMatt]

He could be the worst 3rd baseman in the league and still not be that bad. Nobody is saying he should win an award, only that he's not as bad as people make him out to be. You'd think he missed every ball hit his way the way people talk about him on this board. I've seen bad defensive play before. I watched Brooks Conrad at 2nd, Ken Caminiti try and play 1st, and Mike Piazza try and catch. I simply don't believe Johnson is a liability, he doesn't help you or hurt you defensively. I really don't care what his defensive metrics are. I watch him play every night. I form my own opinions based on what I see on a daily basis. If my argument was he's the best defensive player in the league at his position then I would need to compare him to others but since that's not my argument, I don't.

[jpx7]

I simply don't believe Johnson is a liability, he doesn't help you or hurt you defensively.

But his defense does hurt the team a little; the primary reason it isn't "a lot", or a real liability, is the extraordinary defensive awesomeness of Andrelton Simmons.

On the other hand: luckily Simmons should be with the Braves for several more seasons, at the very least, so the Braves can likely afford to carry Johnson's glove (so long as he keeps hitting).

[zitothebrave]

ChapelHillMatt, who do you think is worse than CJ defensively at third base in MLB?

Miggy, Zimmerman, MIchael Young.

[Braves1976]

But his defense does hurt the team a little; the primary reason it isn't "a lot", or a real liability, is the extraordinary defensive awesomeness of Andrelton Simmons.

On the other hand: luckily Simmons should be with the Braves for several more seasons, at the very least, so the Braves can likely afford to carry Johnson's glove (so long as he keeps hitting).

Well said!

[Hawk]

Miggy, Zimmerman, MIchael Young.

to add: Pedro Alvarez, David Freese, Panda

[zitothebrave]

to add: Pedro Alvarez, David Freese, Panda

No Panda is pretty average. Makes some boneheaded screwups but also makes some ranging plays.

[Hawk]

No Panda is pretty average. Makes some boneheaded screwups but also makes some ranging plays.

Purely from a statistical standpoint, the numbers don't back that up. At least this year (which is all I glanced at.)

But for a fat man his mobility is certainly admirable.

[Braves1976]

to add: Pedro Alvarez, David Freese, Panda

Freese is having a very bad year on defense, but Alvarez has improved his range this year. He's not worse than CJ and I don't think Panda is either overall. They've all been better than CJ over the course of their careers too. Plus if they had Simmons playing next to them (and CJ didn't), then this would be a different conversation.

[Julio3000]

But for a fat man his mobility is certainly admirable.

Shouldn't this be in the Upton/DBacks thread?

[zitothebrave]

Purely from a statistical standpoint, the numbers don't back that up. At least this year (which is all I glanced at.)

But for a fat man his mobility is certainly admirable.

his career UZR is 7.5. He's below average this year but he's done well in the past.

[jpx7]

Freese is having a very bad year on defense

I'm quite pleased with how generally bad Freese has been this year.

[gilesfan]

In the last 3 years Johnson has been -28 DRS. The next worse is at -21. Miggy is -18.

[skidlee]

Tom ‏@Haudricourt 34m

#Brewers 1B Juan Francisco whiffs to strand two in the first. He has five straight Ks and 6 of 7 going back to Saturday.

[zitothebrave]

In the last 3 years Johnson has been -28 DRS. The next worse is at -21. Miggy is -18.

Cabrera only played 3B for the last 2 years. And DRS is only part of the equation. Miggy's UZR at 3B is -20.3 same time frame johnson is -14.6 Only reason Johnson is worse than Miggy in your sample is selective sampling. Johnson isn't good or acceptable at 3B. But Miggy is so much worse. Cabrera is basically a modern day Williams, all he cares about is hitting. Tigers screwed up signing Tubby Fielder and moving Miggy to 3B.

[gilesfan]

Johnson's has 300 more innings in that time period and his UZR and UZR/150 are both lower.

[AUTiger7222]

I love how everyone here that thinks Chris Johnson is nothing but lucky thinks we'll have a **** fit next year if Johnson hits .285. Hello. Last time I checked .285 is a solid average.

[gilesfan]

I love how everyone here that thinks Chris Johnson is nothing but lucky thinks we'll have a **** fit next year if Johnson hits .285. Hello. Last time I checked .285 is a solid average.


What if it's .285/330/.430 with his usual bad defense?

[AUTiger7222]

What if it's .285/330/.430 with his usual bad defense?

It's still not bad comparison to guys Dan Uggla and BJ Upton.

[gilesfan]

It's still not bad comparison to guys Dan Uggla and BJ Upton.

Well, you got that

[zitothebrave]

I love how everyone here that thinks Chris Johnson is nothing but lucky thinks we'll have a **** fit next year if Johnson hits .285. Hello. Last time I checked .285 is a solid average.

It's not the sucking, it's just that his value is pretty easily replaceable if he's not hitting very high.

If he's hitting around that line his WAR would probably be around 1.5 which isn't horrible at all, but it could be replaced relatively easy and for less than Johnson will be due to amke next year.

My thing with Johnson is we should see if someone will trade for him while his value is at an all time high.

[Orphan Black]

Chris Johnson's defense is not bad. He's adequate. Again it's like 50% of the people on this board don't even watch the games.

[Teheran_49]

I'm sorry but I'm not a guy who goes by these UZR and whatever else. I go by the eyeball test and yes Chris was pretty bad in the field earlier this year but he has really improved and you can tell he has really been working hard in the field and his confidence is really good. I think Chris is a solid player and a guy every team would love to have. We have a ton of guys that can hit for power but we need a guy like Chris who can hit for a high average and does all the little things right. Will he lead the league in BA every year? No but I do think he will be a .285-.300 hitter because of his approach.

I'd much rather have Chris Johnson than another free swinging all or nothing hitter in Francisco. We have a guy named Uggla who does that and too many times has he not produced with men in scoring position because of his terrible approach.

[zitothebrave]

Chris Johnson's defense is not bad. He's adequate. Again it's like 50% of the people on this board don't even watch the games.

You have low standards if you think Johnson is adequate

Or your defensive scale is like

AMAZING!
Great
Good
Solid
Above avergae
Average
Adequate

[Carp]

It's still not bad comparison to guys Dan Uggla and BJ Upton.

Setting the bar high, eh?

[AUTiger7222]

It's not the sucking, it's just that his value is pretty easily replaceable if he's not hitting very high.

If he's hitting around that line his WAR would probably be around 1.5 which isn't horrible at all, but it could be replaced relatively easy and for less than Johnson will be due to amke next year.

My thing with Johnson is we should see if someone will trade for him while his value is at an all time high.


Setting the bar high, eh?

If you get rid of Chris Johnson then who plays 3B in 2014? Paul Janish? What free agent is available that the Braves could sign that would cost less than Johnson and be an upgrade?

[zitothebrave]

Would depend on if he has the arm to handle it but LaStella would be a prime replacement.

[AUTiger7222]

Would depend on if he has the arm to handle it but LaStella would be a prime replacement.

Would love to see it. He certainly has the bat for it. I don't know if this is true but someone questioned his defense as the reason why didn't get called up this time after Pastor got hurt.

[zitothebrave]

La Stella's defense isn't really a concern, I can't get a feel on his arm though.

[Enscheff]

Chris Johnson's defense is not bad. He's adequate. Again it's like 50% of the people on this board don't even watch the games.

You see CJ make plays on balls hit right at him, so you think he is "adequate". There is more to being a good defensive player than being a human BP screen.

Every single defensive metric says he is poor. Even if those metrics aren't 100% accurate (or even 90% accurate), the fact that they ALL say he is bad means...he is bad.

[GovClintonTyree]

Chris Johnson can play third for my club any time. Great hitter, decent defense. Building block for a championship club.

[BRule]

You see CJ make plays on balls hit right at him, so you think he is "adequate". There is more to being a good defensive player than being a human BP screen.

Every single defensive metric says he is poor. Even if those metrics aren't 100% accurate (or even 90% accurate), the fact that they ALL say he is bad means...he is bad.

:emot-siren.gif.17::emot-siren.gif.17::emot-siren.gif.17:Winner:emot-siren.gif.17::emot-siren.gif.17::emot-siren.gif.17:

[yeezus]

The answer to this question is still a resounding "no."
And I think defense gets overrated by stats like WAR and stuff. It's not unimportant, but CJ doesn't totally kill us the way Simmons saves us sometimes.

[ChapelHillMatt]

Every single defensive metric says he is poor. Even if those metrics aren't 100% accurate (or even 90% accurate), the fact that they ALL say he is bad means...he is bad.

Or you could watch him play and form your own opinions.

Crazy concept I know.

[gilesfan]

Or you could watch him play and form your own opinions.

Crazy concept I know.

Yeah watching him iz easy to see how bad he is defensively.