Braxton Davidson

[msstate7]

.182/.259/.273

Anyone expect this kid to amount to something?

[Braves1976]

.182/.259/.273

Anyone expect this kid to amount to something?

It's certainly a bad start in High A, but it is also still early enough to not be too concerned. Hopefully he makes adjustments soon and we look back on these numbers as just a bad first month plus.

[chop2chip]

.182/.259/.273

Anyone expect this kid to amount to something?
I like the bat a lot. Freddie Freeman was ****ty in AA and he killed it the next year in AAA. I have always been of the opinion that it's not that bad of a thing for a prospect to struggle.

[rico43]

He's 19 years old. He's nineteen years old. I'll say it one more time: Braxton Davidson is only 19. He turns 20 in June. You want instant gratification, play fantasy baseball.

[msstate7]

He's 19 years old. He's nineteen years old. I'll say it one more time: Braxton Davidson is only 19. He turns 20 in June. You want instant gratification, play fantasy baseball.

I understand he's young. Hasn't he been playing against players his age? BTW, I'm not saying he won't be good... I was wondering what the board thinks of him. Sorry this offended you

[nsacpi]

Still a good prospect, but I think Dustin Peterson has moved ahead of him. And among the young corner outfielders, there is also Isranel Wilson. Plus we have quite a group that plays center (and therefore could move to a corner spot). Inciarte and Mallex at the major league level. Acuna in Rome. And Randy Ventura who will make his stateside debut this year. Competition is a good thing for the franchise, but Davidson is slipping a bit relative to some of his competition.

[Horsehide Harry]

At this point it is all hope with no basis in fact.

I don't see how a GM could count on him and say "in 2018 I can pencil in Braxton Davidson at a corner OF position." I think a GM would have to say, you know what, he's young. And we saw enough in him to take him pretty high. So, I hope he turns into something. But, right now, I can't count on that and must assume he will flame out to nothing and move forward with other alternatives, keeping Braxton in mind IF he starts to right the ship.

OTOH, I can easily see a GM saying "in 2018, I'm going to go ahead and pencil in an infield made up of Albies and Swanson. I don't need to be looking for SS or 2B help in any direct way. You never turn down something good and cheap, but those positions aren't a necessity." That might turn out to be completely wrong. Both could tear their labrums tomorrow and not ever be able to throw a baseball more than 10 feet ever again. But, at some point a GM has to long range plan and right now I think Albies and Swanson are in that plan and I can't see any way that Davidson could be.

[nsacpi]

Right now I'd say Albies, Swanson and Acuna are the three position prospects that have a better than 50% chance of being at least an average major league regular at their position. The others project as bench players or platoon players.

[Braves1976]

Right now I'd say Albies, Swanson and Acuna are the three position prospects that have a better than 50% chance of being at least an average major league regular at their position. The others project as bench players or platoon players.

I am afraid Dustin Peterson may go the way of his brother, look good at times in AA and then end up looking like a bust as his brother does now. I hope not though because I do like him.

[smootness]

Right now I'd say Albies, Swanson and Acuna are the three position prospects that have a better than 50% chance of being at least an average major league regular at their position. The others project as bench players or platoon players.

I would probably agree with the first statement, but I think there's a pretty good chance that at least one of the other guys eventually develops and is a good regular. Between Peterson, Davidson, Ruiz, Riley, and Yepez, I like the chances of at least one breaking out at some point.

[nsacpi]

I am afraid Dustin Peterson may go the way of his brother, look good at times in AA and then end up looking like a bust as his brother does now. I hope not though because I do like him.

We have a group that includes Peterson, Ruiz, Davidson for whom individually the odds of them being an average or better major league regular are less than 50%. But there enough of them that one will probably emerge. Sort of like Prado emerged even though he never was that great a prospect in the minors. As a GM you just have to be patient and flexible as you wait for these things to sort themselves out.

[zbhargrove]

I like the bat a lot. Freddie Freeman was ****ty in AA and he killed it the next year in AAA. I have always been of the opinion that it's not that bad of a thing for a prospect to struggle.

The problem is... he hasn't been good at any level yet... and Freeman wasn't anywhere CLOSE to that ****ty at any level...

[50PoundHead]

To me, Davidson is the biggest disappointment in the system at this point. I always warn fans about putting too much stock in a high walk rate at the lower levels and he has to show he can hit strikes. If he doesn't, he's going to top out before he hits the bigs. He is young for High A and I thought the Braves might have had him repeat Rome.

As per Dustin Peterson, he did better than Davidson last year at the same level. He's doing okay in Mississippi, but it's early. I like him more than most on here.

[Deester11]

I watched him plenty last year in Rome. Talked to his dad a bit and I'll say it again as I gave my thoughts on his progression and it still rings true. There are aspects of Braxton's game that are pretty good. His eye, patience. There. Now, I like the kid and anyone who's seen him as much as me, feel free to disagree, but i see:
1. At times, he doesn't know what type of hitter he wants to be. I was told he wanted to change his overall approach to a more contact savvy hitter. The problem is that it's taken away his aggressiveness and power. It hindered him last year and twice I've seen him this year.
2. He can make adjustments from at bat to at bat, but the high and away pitch has been his achilles until he makes that adjustment. Usually in his second at-bat, but the they change their approach to him.
3. I've never seen a kid get himself into so many 2 strike counts. At that point, especially if the pitcher is ahead in the count, his patience kills him because he's having to adjust to the pitchers pitch.

Long story short. I like him. I just think he needs to get aggressive and right now. He was a masher up until his junior year in HS before adjusting to be more contact driven. At this point, the results are mixed at best.

[50PoundHead]

I watched him plenty last year in Rome. Talked to his dad a bit and I'll say it again as I gave my thoughts on his progression and it still rings true. There are aspects of Braxton's game that are pretty good. His eye, patience. There. Now, I like the kid and anyone who's seen him as much as me, feel free to disagree, but i see:
1. At times, he doesn't know what type of hitter he wants to be. I was told he wanted to change his overall approach to a more contact savvy hitter. The problem is that it's taken away his aggressiveness and power. It hindered him last year and twice I've seen him this year.
2. He can make adjustments from at bat to at bat, but the high and away pitch has been his achilles until he makes that adjustment. Usually in his second at-bat, but the they change their approach to him.
3. I've never seen a kid get himself into so many 2 strike counts. At that point, especially if the pitcher is ahead in the count, his patience kills him because he's having to adjust to the pitchers pitch.

Long story short. I like him. I just think he needs to get aggressive and right now. He was a masher up until his junior year in HS before adjusting to be more contact driven. At this point, the results are mixed at best.

Good insight. I know I'm generalizing, but I have always thought that the OBP angle preached by Lewis in Moneyball was way too simplistic and has really been a disservice to many fans, especially when trying to gauge minor league players. People look at walk rates in the low minors and go gaga over guys who walk a lot and praise their discipline. It's pretty easy to be disciplined in Rookie Ball and Low A when half the pitchers in the league are throwing 58 foot breaking balls and have about as much luck locating their fastball as I would trying to court Ivanka Trump (she is top drawer baby and America is going to love her).

Good prospects hit strikes. Great prospects hit quality strikes. That is how the world works. That doesn't mean that guys who swing at everything should be hailed as sure things either, but if you don't hit strikes in baseball, you don't succeed. It is really that simple. Guys who take too many close pitches (or swing at bad pitches) get themselves into bad counts which leads to a great advantage for pitchers. I was a crappy baseball player and even I know that much. Even below average pitchers feast on hitters when it's a pitchers' count. That doesn't show up as much in the low minors as it does when hitters move up leagues and the quality of the pitching improves.

The challenge is there for Davidson. He obviously has some decent tools, but if he doesn't learn to be more aggressive early in the count, he's going to continue to scuffle.

[UNCBlue012]

Still a good prospect, but I think Dustin Peterson has moved ahead of him. And among the young corner outfielders, there is also Isranel Wilson. Plus we have quite a group that plays center (and therefore could move to a corner spot). Inciarte and Mallex at the major league level. Acuna in Rome. And Randy Ventura who will make his stateside debut this year. Competition is a good thing for the franchise, but Davidson is slipping a bit relative to some of his competition.

Peterson was my next thought. I think he's going to pan out to be a really solid corner outfielder.

[nsacpi]

Peterson was my next thought. I think he's going to pan out to be a really solid corner outfielder.

Peterson and Davidson have been linked in my thinking for a while. Imo neither is quite of the caliber that you want to project them as an everyday outfielder (though of course there is always a chance). But both have a realistic chance to be a decent platoon player.

[cajunrevenge]

I admit I am worried about Davidson but theres plenty of time for him to figure it out. Prospects dont all have the same development path.

[KB21]

Good insight. I know I'm generalizing, but I have always thought that the OBP angle preached by Lewis in Moneyball was way too simplistic and has really been a disservice to many fans, especially when trying to gauge minor league players. People look at walk rates in the low minors and go gaga over guys who walk a lot and praise their discipline. It's pretty easy to be disciplined in Rookie Ball and Low A when half the pitchers in the league are throwing 58 foot breaking balls and have about as much luck locating their fastball as I would trying to court Ivanka Trump (she is top drawer baby and America is going to love her).

Good prospects hit strikes. Great prospects hit quality strikes. That is how the world works. That doesn't mean that guys who swing at everything should be hailed as sure things either, but if you don't hit strikes in baseball, you don't succeed. It is really that simple. Guys who take too many close pitches (or swing at bad pitches) get themselves into bad counts which leads to a great advantage for pitchers. I was a crappy baseball player and even I know that much. Even below average pitchers feast on hitters when it's a pitchers' count. That doesn't show up as much in the low minors as it does when hitters move up leagues and the quality of the pitching improves.

The challenge is there for Davidson. He obviously has some decent tools, but if he doesn't learn to be more aggressive early in the count, he's going to continue to scuffle.

Agree! IMO, you don't have a great eye and great plate discipline if you are walking 15% of the time but striking out 25% of the time. Braxton's problem is that he strikes out looking so much. He stands up there with the bat on his shoulder and expects things to happen. To me, that's what Moneyball has driven. The walk is the end all be all of offensive stats, so you are taking a hitter's aggressiveness away from him by telling him that he needs to draw more walks.

Braxton needs to get aggressive early in the count and hit strikes.

[Deester11]

Good insight. I know I'm generalizing, but I have always thought that the OBP angle preached by Lewis in Moneyball was way too simplistic and has really been a disservice to many fans, especially when trying to gauge minor league players. People look at walk rates in the low minors and go gaga over guys who walk a lot and praise their discipline. It's pretty easy to be disciplined in Rookie Ball and Low A when half the pitchers in the league are throwing 58 foot breaking balls and have about as much luck locating their fastball as I would trying to court Ivanka Trump (she is top drawer baby and America is going to love her).

Good prospects hit strikes. Great prospects hit quality strikes. That is how the world works. That doesn't mean that guys who swing at everything should be hailed as sure things either, but if you don't hit strikes in baseball, you don't succeed. It is really that simple. Guys who take too many close pitches (or swing at bad pitches) get themselves into bad counts which leads to a great advantage for pitchers. I was a crappy baseball player and even I know that much. Even below average pitchers feast on hitters when it's a pitchers' count. That doesn't show up as much in the low minors as it does when hitters move up leagues and the quality of the pitching improves.

The challenge is there for Davidson. He obviously has some decent tools, but if he doesn't learn to be more aggressive early in the count, he's going to continue to scuffle.

You and KB are spot on. Watch an Albies at-bat as a 19 year old and watch Davidson. (And yes...prospects develop at different rates), but Albies KNOWS what type of hitter he is and can barrel a ball better than some major leaguers right now. I feel Braxton is caught in a virtual "who am I" spin cycle. I would think a coach would be in his ear getting him to get aggressive. He has enough bat skills where his aggression SHOULD serve him better.

[thewupk]

Good insight. I know I'm generalizing, but I have always thought that the OBP angle preached by Lewis in Moneyball was way too simplistic and has really been a disservice to many fans, especially when trying to gauge minor league players. People look at walk rates in the low minors and go gaga over guys who walk a lot and praise their discipline. It's pretty easy to be disciplined in Rookie Ball and Low A when half the pitchers in the league are throwing 58 foot breaking balls and have about as much luck locating their fastball as I would trying to court Ivanka Trump (she is top drawer baby and America is going to love her).

Good prospects hit strikes. Great prospects hit quality strikes. That is how the world works. That doesn't mean that guys who swing at everything should be hailed as sure things either, but if you don't hit strikes in baseball, you don't succeed. It is really that simple. Guys who take too many close pitches (or swing at bad pitches) get themselves into bad counts which leads to a great advantage for pitchers. I was a crappy baseball player and even I know that much. Even below average pitchers feast on hitters when it's a pitchers' count. That doesn't show up as much in the low minors as it does when hitters move up leagues and the quality of the pitching improves.

The challenge is there for Davidson. He obviously has some decent tools, but if he doesn't learn to be more aggressive early in the count, he's going to continue to scuffle.

I would agree with that. And honestly my whole stance is that in the minors you pretty much need to trust your scouts when evaluating players. Once your in the majors with a good enough sample size that primarily switches to stats for me. At some point the stats will paint a pretty clear picture of what a player will be. Now that's not to say a scout can't help find players with certain flaws that with some minor adjustments can be fixed but in general you are who you are.

I think the real issue with the OBP types in the minors is you have to look at K rate. In the majors you can get away with striking out a lot if you do enough of the other things well. In the minors if you are striking out a lot (especially at the lower levels) then the chances are high you will get dominated the higher you move up. Again that's where you need to trust your scouts as well.

[50PoundHead]

I would agree with that. And honestly my whole stance is that in the minors you pretty much need to trust your scouts when evaluating players. Once your in the majors with a good enough sample size that primarily switches to stats for me. At some point the stats will paint a pretty clear picture of what a player will be. Now that's not to say a scout can't help find players with certain flaws that with some minor adjustments can be fixed but in general you are who you are.

I think the real issue with the OBP types in the minors is you have to look at K rate. In the majors you can get away with striking out a lot if you do enough of the other things well. In the minors if you are striking out a lot (especially at the lower levels) then the chances are high you will get dominated the higher you move up. Again that's where you need to trust your scouts as well.

You're right. At the big league level, it's all risk/reward. You can strike out a ton if the ROI on contact is sufficient to offset the Ks.

I could go into my angle in great detail, but I think it boils down to the standard deviation of pitching quality at the lower levels of the minors is so large that it's relatively easier to take walks. You see a lot of big lug pitchers with mid-90s fastballs in the minors who can't locate their stuff for crap. That makes it easier for guys to keep their bats on their shoulders. But as pitching quality improves, hitters have to show that they can make meaningful contact because their walk rate is likely to dwindle. It's not an iron law, but walks tend to go down for most hitters as they rise and strikeouts tend to rise. It will certainly vary for different types of hitters, but I think generally it's true for most guys. Once you get to AA, you basically know what you have and then it's building on that. I will give Davidson somewhat of a break, because the Braves seem hellbent on promoting guys aggressively and he's young for High A, especially in the first half of the season.