Is it too early to Stalk the 2017 Draft? [Archive]

CJ9

05-13-2016, 07:16 AM

Houck scares me some because of a funky delivery. I've read a few Scherzer comps, which has obviously worked out alright.

A few other college guys that I've seen draft guys say could be in play at 1.1 are Florida RHP Alex Faedo and Vandy OF Jeren Kendall and RHP Kyle Wright. I love Kendall. I think he's a similar player to Corey Ray, but he's a little bit better in most areas.

msstate7

05-13-2016, 07:19 AM

Right now, I think Tanner Houck from Missouri is the #1 prospect.

I saw him vs miss state. He was outstanding

smootness

05-13-2016, 08:22 AM

Kendall is intriguing. He is going to need his K rate to come down a good bit, his walk rate to improve, and his power to spike more to warrant the top pick, but that's certainly possible.

Vientos is intriguing as well. I would love to add him to the Maitan/Gutierrez international crop, especially if we take a pitcher at 3 this year.

Two other guys to watch are J.J. Schwarz and K.J. Harrison, both catchers. Both will need jumps from their sophomore production, but they could blow up next year.

nsacpi

05-13-2016, 08:27 AM

Apparently there will be a generational talent in the 2018 draft. We should plan our 2017 season accordingly. Maybe keep Fredi around an extra year.

KB21

05-13-2016, 08:36 AM

I saw him vs miss state. He was outstanding

That dude was wicked against Mississippi State. He finally started missing the strike zone some in the 8th inning, and that's when MSU got to him.

msstate7

05-13-2016, 08:37 AM

KB21

05-13-2016, 08:37 AM

Apparently there will be a generational talent in the 2018 draft. We should plan our 2017 season accordingly.

Seth Beer?

KB21

05-13-2016, 08:38 AM

Off topic, but how old is maitan? Will he be a player we see in Atlanta in 2-3 years or more like 4-5?

He's 16, so it will be a while unless he progresses like Ozzie Albies.

msstate7

05-13-2016, 08:44 AM

Seth Beer?

Or jake mangum... Yeah, probably beer haha

smootness

05-13-2016, 08:47 AM

Off topic, but how old is maitan? Will he be a player we see in Atlanta in 2-3 years or more like 4-5?

4-5. There's a chance he could advance like Cabrera and see the majors at 19, but I wouldn't put money on it.

nsacpi

05-13-2016, 08:48 AM

Seth Beer?

the chosen one

smootness

05-13-2016, 08:48 AM

Seth Beer?

It's quite unfortunate for us that we're this terrible a year too early. I would say I'm ok with us getting the #1 pick again in 2018, but I really wouldn't be.

smootness

05-13-2016, 08:49 AM

DirkPiggler

05-13-2016, 09:09 AM

Right now, I think Tanner Houck from Missouri is the #1 prospect.

That would be a smart pick, seeing as how he's a nut lock Hall of Famer if you listen to the SEC Network announcers.

He pitched game 2 in the series against Arkansas, and the announcers kept talking about him all the way through the end of game 3. It was awfully high praise for a guy who gave up 5 earned runs in 6 innings.

In a related story, Gabe Gross has some mouth babies that are due to be here in early January 2017.

The Chosen One

05-13-2016, 09:16 AM

Apparently there will be a generational talent in the 2018 draft. We should plan our 2017 season accordingly. Maybe keep Fredi around an extra year.

Man what a team player Fredi would be to fall on the sword like that for us.

bravesfanMatt

05-13-2016, 09:34 AM

Man what a team player Fredi would be to fall on the sword like that for us.

I just think they need to change the rules and say sophomore or 20 can be drafted... someone start the petition..

msstate7

05-13-2016, 09:39 AM

I just think they need to change the rules and say sophomore or 20 can be drafted... someone start the petition..

What would happen if beer just dropped out of Clemson today and enrolled at a juco for summer term?

clvclv

05-13-2016, 09:43 AM

Another name to watch is J.B. Bukauskas, pitcher at UNC. I haven't seen him extremely high up on 2017 lists, but that may be because he's only 5'11" and doesn't project as well. But he is absolutely killing it at the college level as a sophomore.

J. B.'s awesome (and one of my favorite sleepers). He was great against Louisville and Corey Ray last weekend.

VOLracious

05-13-2016, 09:49 AM

I thought Seth Beer was playing at Clemson. Why is he no draft eligible now?

msstate7

05-13-2016, 09:54 AM

I thought Seth Beer was playing at Clemson. Why is he no draft eligible now?

Freshman

mqt

05-13-2016, 10:11 AM

I just think they need to change the rules and say sophomore or 20 can be drafted... someone start the petition..

If only they were updating the CBA between now and then...

bravesfanMatt

05-13-2016, 10:21 AM

If only they were updating the CBA between now and then...

too bad huh..

50PoundHead

05-13-2016, 10:36 AM

What would happen if beer just dropped out of Clemson today and enrolled at a juco for summer term?

He'd be eligible in 2017.

It happens periodically that a heralded guy from a four-year program will transfer to a JC for his second season. It's usually all about draft status.

msstate7

05-13-2016, 10:42 AM

He'd be eligible in 2017.

It happens periodically that a heralded guy from a four-year program will transfer to a JC for his second season. It's usually all about draft status.
If I were beer, I would finish this year and then play juco ball next season. I would take the money asap

KB21

05-13-2016, 10:43 AM

It's quite unfortunate for us that we're this terrible a year too early. I would say I'm ok with us getting the #1 pick again in 2018, but I really wouldn't be.

It's terrible that Beer decided to leave high school early to go to Clemson. He should have been a high school senior in this draft.

msstate7

05-13-2016, 10:44 AM

It's terrible that Beer decided to leave high school early to go to Clemson. He should have been a high school senior in this draft.

Was his stock this high before he blew up in college?

KB21

05-13-2016, 10:45 AM

Was his stock this high before he blew up in college?

He was rated in the top 5 high school prospects and top 15 or so in the draft period.

KB21

05-13-2016, 10:46 AM

Also, I'm convinced that had Austin Riley gone to MSU and not signed with Atlanta, his numbers would be similar to Beer's.

msstate7

05-13-2016, 10:53 AM

Also, I'm convinced that had Austin Riley gone to MSU and not signed with Atlanta, his numbers would be similar to Beer's.

Maybe...

Beer... .395/.533/.732

Pretty good, but there's a guy in the acc that's better in all categories...

Craig (wake forest 3b)... .417/.551/.826

50PoundHead

05-13-2016, 10:57 AM

It's terrible that Beer decided to leave high school early to go to Clemson. He should have been a high school senior in this draft.

He got bad advice from Landon Powell, who did the same thing (except he went to South Carolina). It's a little bit different in this case, but the net effect is the same. Powell was an 18-year-old high school junior (and Boras client) who was ruled a free agent under the draft rules in place in 2000 after no one drafted him. He went to South Carolina after Boras couldn't get what he was seeking in terms of a contract for him. The Cubs drafted him in the 25th round after his junior season, but he returned to South Carolina instead of signing. Powell ended up being 1st round pick on the Oakland A's in 2004 (after his senior season). MLB changed the rules a couple of years later to make high school juniors ineligible for the draft after Jeremy Bonderman was drafted after his high school junior season.

PS--Bryce Harper took the GED after his high school sophomore season and enrolled in Community College so he would be eligible for the 2010 draft at age 17.

Horsehide Harry

05-13-2016, 11:02 AM

Apparently there will be a generational talent in the 2018 draft. We should plan our 2017 season accordingly. Maybe keep Fredi around an extra year.

Laugh if you like but the probability is that the Braves will have no choice in the matter. If you look at the 2017 season and what is likely to be on the Atlanta team then, the record is unlikely to be significantly different than it is this year.

I know we all like to cobble together the trade for Braun or Lucroy or the signing of a Freese or Prado and then extrapolate that Albies and Swanson will be up to save the day. When the reality is that the Braves can probably bring enough veterans in to move the needle just enough to establish bad mediocrity instead of historic awfulness.

I'm willing to endure another year of historic awfulness if it gets us early picks AND allows the Braves to keep their cash to spend in the 17-18 FA market instead of blowing it on mediocre guys like Freese and Prado or trading for guys on the wrong side of their baseball age curve.

* Make 2016 picks count.
* Go BIG on the international market this year.
* Trade all remaining marketable assets for high end near term or long term talent that will be ready and controllable during the resurgent period - Freeman, Teheran, Markakis, Grilli, Aybar, Inciarte, Beckham, AJ, Flowers, maybe even Smith and Viz IF, IF the return is good enough.
* Play carefully in the 16-17 FA market, looking for bargains that are short term contracts or that can be moved.
* Make the 2017 Draft count.
* Bargain hunt on the international market unless the rules change.
* Evaluate talent holes in the organization and go big (for Atlanta) on the 17-18 FA market
* Pick early and make the 2018 draft count while fielding a competitive team in 2018 loaded with young talent at the ML level and backstopped like shark's teeth throughout the minor league level.

2018 - begin a long run of playoff excellence.

VOLracious

05-13-2016, 11:30 AM

Looks like the Wake guy is someone the Braves might take a look at. What is his projected draft position? So you can't draft college freshman? College players must be 20 yo?

nsacpi

05-13-2016, 11:32 AM

bravesfanMatt

05-13-2016, 11:40 AM

Looks like the Wake guy is someone the Braves might take a look at. What is his projected draft position? So you can't draft college freshman? College players must be 20 yo?

I thought Craig was a 1B...

if a player goes to a 4 year college, then he is not eligible to be drafted until he finishes his Junior year or becomes 21.. Junior college is different.. I think 2 years or 19 maybe.. can't remember.

msstate7

05-13-2016, 11:44 AM

I thought Craig was a 1B...

if a player goes to a 4 year college, then he is not eligible to be drafted until he finishes his Junior year or becomes 21.. Junior college is different.. I think 2 years or 19 maybe.. can't remember.

Haven't seen him play 1 time this year. I just looked at his profile here...
http://www.d1baseball.com/player/will-craig-craigwi42/

Listed as 3b and pitcher... Good stats at each position

50PoundHead

05-13-2016, 11:50 AM

Looks like the Wake guy is someone the Braves might take a look at. What is his projected draft position? So you can't draft college freshman? College players must be 20 yo?

21 or finished college junior year if at a four-year school. No eligibility limits pertaining to age on JUCOs. See Bryce Harper example I posted above. Unless something has changed, if you're at a JUCO, you're eligible for the draft.

Horsehide Harry

05-13-2016, 11:54 AM

I don't think it's too early to contemplate the possibility there might be a generational talent in the 2019 draft and configure the 2018 team accordingly. Is Bryce Harper a free agent after 2017 or 2018?

Now! Now! I want it Now!

"You can't have it now Junior. It's not done cooking. It might make you sick."

Now! Now! It'll taste OK. It's done enough. It's got chocolate and nuts. I want it NOW!

"It also has raw eggs, and sugar and brownie mix, all needs to cook. It takes time. Have some patience."

Now! Now! At least let me lick the spoon.

yeezus

05-13-2016, 11:59 AM

Now! Now! At least let me lick the spoon.

:Bowman:

nsacpi

05-13-2016, 12:01 PM

Now! Now! I want it Now!

"You can't have it now Junior. It's not done cooking. It might make you sick."

Now! Now! It'll taste OK. It's done enough. It's got chocolate and nuts. I want it NOW!

"It also has raw eggs, and sugar and brownie mix, all needs to cook. It takes time. Have some patience."

Now! Now! At least let me lick the spoon.I do appreciate your concern for my health. So 2017 will be not ready. 2019 will be overcooked. And 2018 just right? Do I have it right?

Horsehide Harry

05-13-2016, 12:07 PM

I do appreciate your concern for my health. So 2017 will be not ready. 2019 will be overcooked. And 2018 just right? Do I have it right?

If the directions are followed, it should be taken out of the oven during the winter of 2017, allowed to cool through March, removed from the pan in April 2018 and served for deliciousness throughout the 2018 season and beyond.

nsacpi

05-13-2016, 12:09 PM

If the directions are followed, it should be taken out of the oven during the winter of 2017, allowed to cool through March, removed from the pan in April 2018 and served for deliciousness throughout the 2018 season and beyond.
Now we know. And if Freeman and Teheran are not traded soon it could be a long long wait.

Horsehide Harry

05-13-2016, 12:14 PM

Now we know. And if Freeman and Teheran are not traded soon it could be a long long wait.

Sometimes you have to break some eggs.

50PoundHead

05-13-2016, 12:21 PM

Now! Now! I want it Now!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hZJ4cotUWc

Like I used to say to my daughters when they were little, "Calm down, Veruca."

mqt

06-13-2016, 01:52 PM

All aboard the Jordon Adell Train!

bravesfanMatt

06-13-2016, 02:15 PM

is it too early to stalk the 2018 Draft?

Fear the Beer!!!

mfree80

06-13-2016, 02:17 PM

is it too early to stalk the 2018 Draft?

Fear the Beer!!!

Beat me to it. I was about to say... we are already speculating about 2018. I personally hope we are too good to be talking about Beer by the 2018 Draft.

bravesfanMatt

06-13-2016, 02:22 PM

Beat me to it. I was about to say... we are already speculating about 2018. I personally hope we are too good to be talking about Beer by the 2018 Draft.

yes.. I am not sure. it will depend on what we do with trades. JT getting traded will most certainly hurt us. FF or Viz gets moved and we might as well keep Swanson and Ozzie down one more year and let some scrubs play. Beer looks like a generational talent, and I would hate to be picking 5th in his draft. If we are bad enough to have a top 10 pick in 18.. then we just need to tank the **** out of 17 and get Beer!!!

Horsehide Harry

06-13-2016, 03:06 PM

yes.. I am not sure. it will depend on what we do with trades. JT getting traded will most certainly hurt us. FF or Viz gets moved and we might as well keep Swanson and Ozzie down one more year and let some scrubs play. Beer looks like a generational talent, and I would hate to be picking 5th in his draft. If we are bad enough to have a top 10 pick in 18.. then we just need to tank the **** out of 17 and get Beer!!!

I know we all like to cobble together the trade for Braun or Lucroy or the signing of a Freese or Prado and then extrapolate that Albies and Swanson will be up to save the day. When the reality is that the Braves can probably bring enough veterans in to move the needle just enough to establish bad mediocrity instead of historic awfulness.

Is 5th worst really better than worst? I would say, without question, no. So I agree with what you've said.

Is 15th worst better than worst? I would say, it depends. If you have no realistic improvement arc beyond 15th worst, then you are in purgatory. I think the Braves found themselves here when they concluded they needed to rebuild.

So, would a .500 or near .500 team be better than dead last next year? My answer would be that it depends. What is the realistic improvement arc? I would say that unless they can somehow improve the offense to the point that it is at least middle of the pack in baseball and shows some level of growth potential, then no, being mediocre next year isn't better than being horrible.

smootness

06-13-2016, 04:01 PM

Luken Baker from TCU is another big-time bat in that 2018 class. .379/.488/.560 as a freshman this year with 9 HR, 44 BB, and 37 K. He's a 1B, though.

Hudson2

06-13-2016, 05:03 PM

Schwartz will be right up there to imo. I really hope Beer goes to a Juco school next year. Getting him would be a huge game changer.

UNCBlue012

06-13-2016, 05:07 PM

Luken Baker from TCU is another big-time bat in that 2018 class. .379/.488/.560 as a freshman this year with 9 HR, 44 BB, and 37 K. He's a 1B, though.

We might need one since Freeman can't hit a fastball to save his life and we have a FO that loves to make trades.

skillet

06-13-2016, 06:06 PM

I don't give a damn who we select for our top pick next year, as long as it's not a ****ing pitcher.

Julio3000

06-13-2016, 06:20 PM

Another name to watch is J.B. Bukauskas, pitcher at UNC. I haven't seen him extremely high up on 2017 lists, but that may be because he's only 5'11" and doesn't project as well. But he is absolutely killing it at the college level as a sophomore.

I'd hate to think what Dalyn could rename our rebuild if we brought him in board.

buck75

06-13-2016, 08:24 PM

Would not be surprised if Kendall from Vandy were picked in top five in 2017.

mqt

06-13-2016, 08:32 PM

I don't give a damn who we select for our top pick next year, as long as it's not a ****ing pitcher.

I would certainly prefer a bat, but if we get the top pick and there is a generational talent that is a pitcher, I'm cool with taking that talent.

Heyward

06-13-2016, 08:58 PM

I don't give a damn who we select for our top pick next year, as long as it's not a ****ing pitcher.

I mean if there's a generational talent at SP they'd be stupid not to consider it, we need everything.

Obviously would prefer the bat of course.

cajunrevenge

06-13-2016, 09:15 PM

Get the #1 pick in 2017 then dont sign that player. Then get the #1 pick for 2018 and we have the top 2 picks and almost 20 million in signing pool.

buck75

06-13-2016, 09:17 PM

Get the #1 pick in 2017 then dont sign that player. Then get the #1 pick for 2018 and we have the top 2 picks and almost 20 million in signing pool.

Very interesting!

cajunrevenge

06-13-2016, 09:42 PM

Honestly I wouldnt do that unless there was a Harper and Strasburg entering the same year and they would likely demand full slot value.

mqt

06-13-2016, 10:25 PM

Get the #1 pick in 2017 then dont sign that player. Then get the #1 pick for 2018 and we have the top 2 picks and almost 20 million in signing pool.

One strategy that I find far more interesting than that would be to wait until a year when things are trending up and just blow past your bonus pool to an insane degree. Line up deals with a bunch of elite prospects and offer each of them $6 million and take them throughout the draft. If you could work out that arrangement with three top 10 guys even, you just take your penalty and laugh it off. 2018 would be a perfect year for us to do that, since we'd be hopefully looking at losing a mediocre 2019 and 2020 first.