Williams perez

[msstate7]

38.2 ip 3.72 era 12 bb 19 k 33 h 1.16 whip

0.8 WAR

Is Williams becoming a contender to be 5th starter going forward?

[nsacpi]

A contender. Looking at what we have in house who might contend for a spot next spring:

Teheran and Wisler are locks barring trade or injury.

Main contenders for three spots: Baby Harang, Folty, Blair, Gant.

Outside contenders: Sims, Newcomb, Jenkins

Chances are someone gets hurt among the Top 6.

[mqt]

It'd be great if Perez could establish himself as a solid back-end starter. He could either hold down a rotation spot here for a few years or we could flip him as other pitching prospects become ready.

I'm unconvinced at this point, though. 19:12 is not exactly a great ratio and he doesn't have great stuff.

[dak]

Looking ahead to next year, here's how I'd tier the MLB-ready starters:

Teheran: 2-4 WAR range
Wisler: 1-3 WAR range
Folty, Perez, Blair: 0-2 WAR range
Gant, Jenkins: ???

I'm looking forward to seeing one or more of those bottom 5 guys jump up a tier. Blair and Gant have a good shot, I think. That would leave us with this:

Teheran: 2-4 WAR range
Wisler, Blair: 1-3 WAR range
Folty, Perez, Gant: 0-2 WAR range
Jenkins: ???

[smootness]

I think he's a contender for the 5th spot next year and possibly in 2018, if guys don't progress as we hope. But that's about it. If Perez is still a rotation contender for us in a few years, that is a bad sign for all the pitching talent we've acquired.

[GovClintonTyree]

It'd be great if Perez could establish himself as a solid back-end starter. He could either hold down a rotation spot here for a few years or we could flip him as other pitching prospects become ready.

I'm unconvinced at this point, though. 19:12 is not exactly a great ratio and he doesn't have great stuff.

I'm not sure I agree with your analysis. Consider these three pitchers with these three career BB/K ratios:

2.4/5.1
2.6/6.0
3.5/4.5

Not terribly inspiring, eh? Hardly overpowering.

The first two won 436 games and pitched 36 years in the big leagues, eight all star appearances between them with low 3.00s ERAs. The last was a very successful low 3.00s reliever for a dozen years who happens to have been our pitching coach for the last decade.

The common thread? All sinkerballers. The only lasting exception to a 3:1 K/BB ratio and >7.5 K/9 is an excellent sinker. And we can critique Baby Harang's physique and ratios all we want, but he still throws a heavy ball at 94. He is an uncomfortable, beestinging mofo.

I been watchin' this dude and really all I need to see is a touch better command, which we've seen the last three starts. Put your best infield defense behind him and I say he's capable of throwing 200 innings of 3.30-3.50 baseball on a consistent basis and that's good enough to start for me.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reuscri01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoti01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcdowro01.shtml

[GovClintonTyree]

I'll tell you another thing. Given the choice between Perez, whom I'm sure Sabre folks would call a "low ceiling" guy, and those "next men up" - Sims, Foltynewicz, and Newcomb - that's a slam dunk for me. I'll take Perez - a grinder, a gamer who gets guys out. You can keep your guys who light up the radar gun and can't find home plate. When the other guys get down below 4 BB/9 I'm interested. I do acknowledge that happens sometimes and that's part of the point of a farm, but I really value command.

[The Chosen One]

I'll tell you another thing. Given the choice between Perez, whom I'm sure Sabre folks would call a "low ceiling" guy, and those "next men up" - Sims, Foltynewicz, and Newcomb - that's a slam dunk for me. I'll take Perez - a grinder, a gamer who gets guys out. You can keep your guys who light up the radar gun and can't find home plate. When the other guys get down below 4 BB/9 I'm interested. I do acknowledge that happens sometimes and that's part of the point of a farm, but I really value command.

Yep.

Perez is definitely a gamer. I truly haven't seen a starting pitcher for us attack and challenger hitters like this since maybe Smoltz. Huddy would try to get you out, Medlen would try to outthink you, but Perez is going after you. Maybe Minor on a good day. Julion can get there sometimes too.

[bravos4evr]

I like Perez and would like to see him stick in the rotation, BUT, he has some issues with command in an era where K's and BB's really matter a lot. If he can keep his FIP around 4.00 (and his ERA too) he has value, but he has tended to be very good and then get absolutely rocked on other days. If you don't have great command, it becomes difficult to get away with not striking out 7 per 9 innings.

[bravos4evr]

I'm not sure I agree with your analysis. Consider these three pitchers with these three career BB/K ratios:

2.4/5.1
2.6/6.0
3.5/4.5

Not terribly inspiring, eh? Hardly overpowering.

The first two won 436 games and pitched 36 years in the big leagues, eight all star appearances between them with low 3.00s ERAs. The last was a very successful low 3.00s reliever for a dozen years who happens to have been our pitching coach for the last decade.

The common thread? All sinkerballers. The only lasting exception to a 3:1 K/BB ratio and >7.5 K/9 is an excellent sinker. And we can critique Baby Harang's physique and ratios all we want, but he still throws a heavy ball at 94. He is an uncomfortable, beestinging mofo.
\




welllll, those are different eras.

The avg K/BB rate right over the past 10 years in MLB is : 8.07 K/9 and 3.18 BB/9 (Perez is 5.33 K/9 and 3.65 BB/9)

during Roger McDowell's career the avg was : 6.18 K/9 to 3.20 BB/9

during Reuchels' career avg was around 5 K/9 and around 3.30 BB/9

and during Huddy's career, league avg was 6.70 K/9 and 3.35 BB/9

so, you see if you look at their performances relative to avg, they aren't as far away from league avg as Perez is.

One other thing is Huddy's career GB% was 58% (no GB% available for the other 2) Perez's GB% is 53.5 in a SSS and his HR/FB is a low 6.3% (avg is 10%) I worry that when Perez has his HR rate regress to the mean, he will need to count on his defense a helluva lot to be successful as he won't be able to fall back on K's or weak flyballs to help him out.

but maybe he can, stranger things have happened.

EDIT: interesting to call him "Baby Harang" because Harang struck guys out at a 7.14 clip per 9 over his career, his good years are always either above that mark, or his HR/FB had a below avg season.

[The Chosen One]

welllll, those are different eras.

The avg K/BB rate right over the past 10 years in MLB is : 8.07 K/9 and 3.18 BB/9 (Perez is 5.33 K/9 and 3.65 BB/9)

during Roger McDowell's career the avg was : 6.18 K/9 to 3.20 BB/9

during Reuchels' career avg was around 5 K/9 and around 3.30 BB/9

and during Huddy's career, league avg was 6.70 K/9 and 3.35 BB/9

so, you see if you look at their performances relative to avg, they aren't as far away from league avg as Perez is.

One other thing is Huddy's career GB% was 58% (no GB% available for the other 2) Perez's GB% is 53.5 in a SSS and his HR/FB is a low 6.3% (avg is 10%) I worry that when Perez has his HR rate regress to the mean, he will need to count on his defense a helluva lot to be successful as he won't be able to fall back on K's or weak flyballs to help him out.

but maybe he can, stranger things have happened.

EDIT: interesting to call him "Baby Harang" because Harang struck guys out at a 7.14 clip per 9 over his career, his good years are always either above that mark, or his HR/FB had a below avg season.

You ain't been here long enough to understand why Willie's referred to as Baby Harang round these parts.

[bravos4evr]

apparently not! lol! explain?

[Russ2dollas]

I think he's long relief or trade bait, I just think Ellis, Jenkins, and gant are better

That said. If we vastly upgrade our defense with Swanson albies and a legit defensive 3b then the sinker may play up

[nsacpi]

apparently not! lol! explain?

After the Harang/Laird interglacial ended there was a massive hole (or as we say nowadays a yuge hole) on the team to be filled. And Williams seemed to be the only one capable of filling maybe half of that hole.

[UNCBlue012]

I'm just happy we have him. We have so many options with Perez. I hope he continues to improve and becomes a staple, though. I was incredibly encouraged to see his velocity improvements this year.

[mqt]

I'll tell you another thing. Given the choice between Perez, whom I'm sure Sabre folks would call a "low ceiling" guy, and those "next men up" - Sims, Foltynewicz, and Newcomb - that's a slam dunk for me. I'll take Perez - a grinder, a gamer who gets guys out. You can keep your guys who light up the radar gun and can't find home plate. When the other guys get down below 4 BB/9 I'm interested. I do acknowledge that happens sometimes and that's part of the point of a farm, but I really value command.

I don't think you will find a "sabre folk" out there that will actually prefer the player that's walking 4 per 9. This preference comes from what the scouts say about their upside rather than what the stats are saying.

I value the rebuttal regarding his ratios, I think it is a solid argument worth considering. However, much like the upside guys in AA/AAA, Perez needs to make adjustments and improve in order to have a successful major league career. You can't really just bet on being Tim Hudson and having a batted ball profile that overcomes an inability to strike batters out at a high level. Maybe he continues to develop and that's his future, but I'm not banking on it any more than I'm banking on Newcomb or Touki suddenly learning to find the zone with regularity. Hopefully one or more of those things happen.

[GovClintonTyree]

I don't think you will find a "sabre folk" out there that will actually prefer the player that's walking 4 per 9. This preference comes from what the scouts say about their upside rather than what the stats are saying.

I value the rebuttal regarding his ratios, I think it is a solid argument worth considering. However, much like the upside guys in AA/AAA, Perez needs to make adjustments and improve in order to have a successful major league career. You can't really just bet on being Tim Hudson and having a batted ball profile that overcomes an inability to strike batters out at a high level. Maybe he continues to develop and that's his future, but I'm not banking on it any more than I'm banking on Newcomb or Touki suddenly learning to find the zone with regularity. Hopefully one or more of those things happen.

Yeah, you may be right about who falls in love with the Newcombs of the world.

I disagree on your next argument, though. I could find 50 other examples of what I used Hudson, McDowell and Reuschel to point out - and that's that sinkerballers can be and are successful without the traditional batted ball profile.

That's not a guess or a wish, that's an empirical observation. And his pitching coach is a guy who carved out a nice career doing it, should be a very good mentor for him.

The last piece of development that needs to take place is that his command doesn't desert him for stretches. It didn't in the minors, looks like it coincides with his arrival in the majors. And he's had several starts in a row where he's had command. So I'm suggesting he may be entering that last stage of refinement to be a successful ML starter without the traditional ratios.

Contrast that with Newcomb and Sims, who are still close to 6 BB/9. No idea why people (Coppy) get so excited about guys like that.

[GovClintonTyree]

I like Perez and would like to see him stick in the rotation, BUT, he has some issues with command in an era where K's and BB's really matter a lot. If he can keep his FIP around 4.00 (and his ERA too) he has value, but he has tended to be very good and then get absolutely rocked on other days. If you don't have great command, it becomes difficult to get away with not striking out 7 per 9 innings.

Right. What I'm saying is, I'm encouraged by the command he's showing. He's walked 4 guys in a month, is going deep into starts, and is winning.

[GovClintonTyree]

I think he's long relief or trade bait, I just think Ellis, Jenkins, and gant are better

That said. If we vastly upgrade our defense with Swanson albies and a legit defensive 3b then the sinker may play up

I like those guys, too, but how they handle their transition to the big leagues is largely theoretical. Perez, on the other hand, has worked through some command issues, speed is up a tic and he's getting actual major league hitters out on an increasingly frequent basis.

I like Gant, too, but that was a little rocky first time through. I like Jenkins, and I really like Blair. Someone on here had talked to a family member of Blair after he got lit up and explained a mechanical flaw that was causing him to leave balls up. I found it credible and plausible, and look forward to Blair's development, along with the other two.

I'd just as soon DFA O'Flaherty, deal Johnson, generally get rid of the placeholders and get on with the future. Everybody's gonna have some growing pains; let's get on with it.

[nsacpi]

I think the walk rate is more important to keep an eye on for our young pitchers. A ground ball pitcher can get away with a lower strikeout rate. But the walk rate is the thing that will determine which of them will succeed at the major league level.

I would hold up Teheran and Wisler as examples to compare the other guys with.

Julion's walk rate rose from the low 2s per nine innings in 2013-14 to the low 3s in 2015. And that was part of the reason his results were not as good. He's got it back down to the low 2s this year and that's part of why he is doing better. Part of the reason. Not the whole story.

Wisler has a walk rate of 2.2 this year versus 3.3 last year. Again a significant part of the reason for his success this year.

Williams Perez went from a 5.8 walk rate in April to 1.4 in May. That's yuge.

Folty is at 2.0 this year in the majors. Last year it was 3.0. I have some doubts he can keep it in the low 2s. But if he does he WILL succeed as a major league starting pitcher.

Blair is at 4.7 in 6 major league starts. He was in the low 3s in AAA both last year and this year. The formula really is quite simple. Get it down to the low 2s and his chances for success go up a lot.

Gant is at 3.0 this year in AAA and 4.0 in the majors. Gotta get it down to the low 2s in AAA. That would probably translate to the high 2s in the majors which I think Gant can live with if he maintains a high strikeout rate.

Sims and Newcomb are above 5 in the minors so far this year. They are not ready. But they have big arms. They can probably succeed with a higher walk rate than the guys I listed above. But not with one above 5 or even above 4.

Jenkins is at 3.7 this year in AAA. For him, I think it has to be in the low 2s for a chance at major league success.

[mqt]

Contrast that with Newcomb and Sims, who are still close to 6 BB/9. No idea why people (Coppy) get so excited about guys like that.

It's because if a pitcher like Newcomb figures it out, he becomes a force.

[chop2chip]

I'll tell you another thing. Given the choice between Perez, whom I'm sure Sabre folks would call a "low ceiling" guy, and those "next men up" - Sims, Foltynewicz, and Newcomb - that's a slam dunk for me. I'll take Perez - a grinder, a gamer who gets guys out. You can keep your guys who light up the radar gun and can't find home plate. When the other guys get down below 4 BB/9 I'm interested. I do acknowledge that happens sometimes and that's part of the point of a farm, but I really value command.
You do realize that Williams is at 3.65 BB/9for his career right? For perspective, Folty is at 2.85 BB/9 for his career.

[GovClintonTyree]

You do realize that Williams is at 3.65 BB/9for his career right? For perspective, Folty is at 2.85 BB/9 for his career.

What perspective am I supposed to get that I don't understand? Yes, I can see that after a minor league career with solid command that Perez's walk rate at the major league level is 3.65 and as I've pointed out that's not horrible and I s trending in the right direction.

I didn't use Folty as a comp because he does seem to be trending in the right direction after four years over 4.0 and even 5.0 in the minors. So he would be an example of a power pitcher trending in the right direction. I don't have a problem using ML innings to see if he can cure his gopher problem, he seems to be coming along and he's not walking guys.

What I am saying is premature and poor strategy is to remove or ignore pitchers like Perez who are having some success at the major league level but don't have the supposed pedigree and cache that Sims and Newcomb have and bringing up guys with big arms who don't throw strikes. I don't think that is that hard to comprehend, nor is it particularly revolutionary.

[GovClintonTyree]

It's because if a pitcher like Newcomb figures it out, he becomes a force.

Yes, Sandy Koufax and Nolan Ryan figured it out. 100,000 guys didn't. I'll take the guys who have always had command to the guys who have been pitching since they were eight years old and still don't throw strikes. Seems like a better bet. My preference.

[bravos4evr]

Yes, Sandy Koufax and Nolan Ryan figured it out. 100,000 guys didn't. I'll take the guys who have always had command to the guys who have been pitching since they were eight years old and still don't throw strikes. Seems like a better bet. My preference.

Perez doesn't have much future as a MLB starter, guys who post his K/BB ratios posting 4.50 FIP's even with a 6.3% HR/FB rate simply can't sustain success that way. (I explained why using stats above) he is an org depth guy who might work as a swingman/6th starter on an avg team. He has nowhere near the ceiling or future projection of guys like Newcomb , Sims or Blair.

[GovClintonTyree]

Perez doesn't have much future as a MLB starter, guys who post his K/BB ratios posting 4.50 FIP's even with a 6.3% HR/FB rate simply can't sustain success that way. (I explained why using stats above) he is an org depth guy who might work as a swingman/6th starter on an avg team. He has nowhere near the ceiling or future projection of guys like Newcomb , Sims or Blair.

False. Throws strikes, gets outs. Two of other three don't.

I prefer my stats to yours.

[GovClintonTyree]

Perez doesn't have much future as a MLB starter, guys who post his K/BB ratios posting 4.50 FIP's even with a 6.3% HR/FB rate simply can't sustain success that way. (I explained why using stats above) he is an org depth guy who might work as a swingman/6th starter on an avg team. He has nowhere near the ceiling or future projection of guys like Newcomb , Sims or Blair.

Put differently: you keep waiting for Lucas Sims. I'm sure there are plenty of people bewildered by the lost projectability of George Lombard.

[Braves1976]

Put differently: you keep waiting for Lucas Sims. I'm sure there are plenty of people bewildered by the lost projectability of George Lombard.

Gov, I am more in your camp concerning pitchers as you likely know given our past agreeing on numerous pitchers, though occasionally we see a pitcher differently as everyone does. I don't just go by the numbers with pitchers nor fastball velocity, I think we see too much of extremes in those areas today. That is why someone like me can like someone like Perez and also be very high on someone like Sims. I like Sims more than Folty and Newcomb because I like his stuff better than them and see him as the most likely of the three to get it together and take off. The kid has a great make-up from all reports I've heard. Further, I supported taking Wood over Sims in the draft both were taken because I knew Wood was the best bet to make it and also be in MLB a lot sooner to help the Braves. But I was very excited to see Sims still around for our second draft pick that year and loved that we took him. That was a great pick just as the Wood pick was IMO.

That said, I do not like trading players like Simmons for high risk prospects like Newcomb and a likely reliever like Ellis that also has had issues of walking too many at times. I am fine with drafting such prospects and picking them up for other prospects or less talented and proven players but when you trade a player like Simmons (who's the best defender in MLB) you do so for someone that isn't such a risk.

Lastly, I think Perez could be better in MLB as he seems to have improved along the way as far as his pitches. He's even showed more velocity at times this year too. That and his control will be key moving forward as the kid has a good heavy sinker, esp. when he has that extra velocity as he has in a few games this year.

[bravos4evr]

False. Throws strikes, gets outs. Two of other three don't.

I prefer my stats to yours.



Mine has a consistent set of results that lends itself to better pitchers long term. Your bias is blinding you to the facts, and the stats you asserted turned out to not even apply to Perez (based on performance relative to league average ).


But for the sake of argument let us look at the data for starting pitchers over the last 3 seasons(2014-2016) with at least 300 innings pitched:

of the 96 qualifying starters over that period, last in K/9 is Buehrle with a 4.72 (Perez presently sports a career 5.33 which puts him 90th)

of the 96 qualifying starters Ubaldo Jimenez is last in BB/9 with a 4.42 (Perez sports a career 3.65 which would make him 90th)

of the 96 qualifying starters Perez has a career ERA of 4.52 a career xFIP of 4.70 and a dead avg career HR/FB of 10.8% and a career BABIP of .300

He mostly closely resembles the following pitchers in production per 100 innings : Kyle Kendrick, John Danks, Jered Weaver and Jeremy Gutherie. which wouldn't be awful if we were talking about their best seasons, but over the last 350-430 innings each that group of 4 has totaled 4.3 WAR between 2014 to the present....... hardly stellar comps.

He might turn out to be a serviceable fifth starter on a bad to mediocre team, but he's not the kind of guy you want to build around. There are plenty of Williams Perezes in the world.


EDIT: If you just used Perez's present season, his 4.42 K/9 would be 97th on my above list, his BB/9 would be 60th his HR/FB% would be 2nd to the lowest, and his BABIP would be 2nd highest. This does not point to a guy who is pitching all that well. There is a reason his xFIP is 4.42.

[bravos4evr]

all prospects are risks (especially arms) if you are severely risk averse, baseball trades are generally always gonna make you squirm. Plenty of "sure things" never pan out at all, or turn into Gordon Beckham or Dustin Ackley.

[Braves1976]

all prospects are risks (especially arms) if you are severely risk averse, baseball trades are generally always gonna make you squirm. Plenty of "sure things" never pan out at all, or turn into Gordon Beckham or Dustin Ackley.

No, that's a false dichotomy. There are different types of risks and obviously I am not talking about risk of injury here. I'm sure you know there's a reason Newcomb is called a high risk prospect by numerous prospect evaluators like Jim Callis and other pitching prospects are not considered such high risks. Further, I wasn't really in favor of trading Simmons at all but if I do it needed to be for more proven players and in saying so I wasn't limiting the return to simply less proven prospects either. For example, Blair is a lot less a risk IMO than Newcomb and had we gotten him in a package with either Inciarte type or Swanson type, yea even just Blair and one of those two, then I'd liked that trade for Simmons a lot better and yes there is less risk of bust all around in such a trade IMO.

[GovClintonTyree]

Gov, I am more in your camp concerning pitchers as you likely know given our past agreeing on numerous pitchers, though occasionally we see a pitcher differently as everyone does. I don't just go by the numbers with pitchers nor fallball velocity, I think we see too much of extremes in those areas today. That is why someone like me can like someone like Perez and also be very high on someone like Sims. I like Sims more than Folty and Newcomb because I like his stuff better than them and see him as the most likely of the three to get it together and take off. The kid has a great make-up from all reports I've heard. Further, I supported taking Wood over Sims in the draft both were taken because I knew Wood was the best bet to make it and also be in MLB a lot sooner to help the Braves. But I was very excited to see Sims still around for our second draft pick that year and loved that we took him. That was a great pick just as the Wood pick was IMO.

That said, I do not like trading players like Simmons for high risk prospects like Newcomb and a likely reliever like Ellis that also has had issues of walking too many at times. I am fine with drafting such prospects and picking them up for other prospects or less talented and proven players but when you trade a player like Simmons (who's the best defender in MLB) you do so for someone that isn't such a risk.

Lastly, I think Perez could be better in MLB as he seems to have improved along the way as far as his pitches. He's even showed more velocity at times this year too. That and his control will be key moving forward as the kid has a good heavy sinker, esp. when he has that extra velocity as he has in a few games this year.

Hope you're right about Sims, '76, and agree with most of what you're saying. And you've distilled it pretty well, I don't like Newcomb - more specifically, Newcomb's control. And somebody back a couple pages started with the "get Perez out of here and let's get (Sims and) Newcomb up here" and it set off two of my buttons.

[bravos4evr]

Gov, I am more in your camp concerning pitchers as you likely know given our past agreeing on numerous pitchers, though occasionally we see a pitcher differently as everyone does. I don't just go by the numbers with pitchers nor fastball velocity, I think we see too much of extremes in those areas today. That is why someone like me can like someone like Perez and also be very high on someone like Sims. I like Sims more than Folty and Newcomb because I like his stuff better than them and see him as the most likely of the three to get it together and take off. The kid has a great make-up from all reports I've heard. Further, I supported taking Wood over Sims in the draft both were taken because I knew Wood was the best bet to make it and also be in MLB a lot sooner to help the Braves. But I was very excited to see Sims still around for our second draft pick that year and loved that we took him. That was a great pick just as the Wood pick was IMO.

That said, I do not like trading players like Simmons for high risk prospects like Newcomb and a likely reliever like Ellis that also has had issues of walking too many at times. I am fine with drafting such prospects and picking them up for other prospects or less talented and proven players but when you trade a player like Simmons (who's the best defender in MLB) you do so for someone that isn't such a risk.

Lastly, I think Perez could be better in MLB as he seems to have improved along the way as far as his pitches. He's even showed more velocity at times this year too. That and his control will be key moving forward as the kid has a good heavy sinker, esp. when he has that extra velocity as he has in a few games this year.


bold mine...we took Sims with our first pick of the 2012 draft, did you mean you were happy to see Wood still around later?

[bravos4evr]

No, that's a false dichotomy. There are different types of risks and obviously I am not talking about risk of injury here. I'm sure you know there's a reason Newcomb is called a high risk prospect by numerous prospect evaluators like Jim Callis and other pitching prospects are not considered such high risks. Further, I wasn't really in favor of trading Simmons at all but if I do it needed to be for more proven players and in saying so I wasn't limiting the return to simply less proven prospects either. For example, Blair is a lot less a risk IMO than Newcomb and had we gotten him in a package with either Inciarte type or Swanson type, yea even just Blair and one of those two, then I'd liked that trade for Simmons a lot better and yes there is less risk of bust all around in such a trade IMO.

I wasn't much of a fan of the Simmons trade either (mostly for selfish entertainment reasons) BUT, it made sense on a value level. IF, Newcomb can be a #3/4 starter fr 4-5 years, he will provide excess vale over Simmons alone. Anything above that will be lagniappe.

[bravos4evr]

Hope you're right about Sims, '76, and agree with most of what you're saying. And you've distilled it pretty well, I don't like Newcomb - more specifically, Newcomb's control. And somebody back a couple pages started with the "get Perez out of here and let's get (Sims and) Newcomb up here" and it set off two of my buttons.

I disagree with "getting Perez out of here and get sims/newcomb up here" more due to the type of season we are going to have, development and player control reasons. I think we need to let the guys stay down until sept. at the earliest and allow guys like Perez...etc eat the innings on a bad squad. No sense on rushing players now.

[Braves1976]

bold mine...we took Sims with our first pick of the 2012 draft, did you mean you were happy to see Wood still around later?

yep, I just flipped that mixing up the two. I had both as my top two picks and just switched there names not realizing my mistake. What I meant there was I wanted both and honestly had a hard time choosing between the two for the first pick. When we picked Sims first I very happy to still get Wood with the second round pick. I thought both were great picks too.

That was also the rare draft I got two of my favorites picked early back to back.

[bravos4evr]

agree, if Sims even ends up with Mike Minor's career, it's still good value out of the first round.

[Braves1976]

I wasn't much of a fan of the Simmons trade either (mostly for selfish entertainment reasons) BUT, it made sense on a value level. IF, Newcomb can be a #3/4 starter fr 4-5 years, he will provide excess vale over Simmons alone. Anything above that will be lagniappe.

I disagree, you don't trade Simmons who is the Ozzie Smith of this generation in a sense (better than Ozzie defensively IMO and of course Ozzie didn't have Simmons arm) for someone that might end up a " #3/4 starter" and likely reliever in Ellis. Fangraphs even said the return for Simmons was light and surprisingly so. Simmons is special and like when the Padres traded Smith to the Cardinals, I see this trade likely blowing up in our faces in a similar manner in the long run.

[bravos4evr]

"blowing up in our faces" is awfully dramatic. Simmons is one of the best defenders of all time true, but his bat has failed to develop into even close to avg. If his defense slips... well he becomes Erick Eybar.

i still thought the trade was light, but that doesn't mean we won't get excess value out of it. The players we received should not be sneered at because you don't like the trade, it isn't their fault.

[Braves1976]

"blowing up in our faces" is awfully dramatic. Simmons is one of the best defenders of all time true, but his bat has failed to develop into even close to avg. If his defense slips... well he becomes Erick Eybar.

i still thought the trade was light, but that doesn't mean we won't get excess value out of it. The players we received should not be sneered at because you don't like the trade, it isn't their fault.

He's no where close to becoming Aybar, that would be more than a huge slip on defense for him and isn't likely at all. In fact, that sounds "awfully dramatic" to say IMO. Further, I don't think it's "awfully dramatic" to consider a trade blowing up in our faces if Newcomb busts or becomes a number 4 starter in MLB while Ellis becomes a reliever as expected. While at the same time Simmons continues to be great on defense and when he declines but is still great his offense will likely improve off-setting it as is often the case (see fangraph's piece on similar players in that regard, though I'd argue Simmons isn't as easy to compare that way being so special on defense at a position where defense is so important).

[bravos4evr]

He's no where close to becoming Aybar, that would be more than a huge slip on defense for him and isn't likely at all. In fact, that sounds "awfully dramatic" to say IMO. Further, I don't think it's "awfully dramatic" to consider a trade blowing up in our faces if Newcomb busts or becomes a number 4 starter in MLB while Ellis becomes a reliever as expected. While at the same time Simmons continues to be great on defense and when he declines but is still great his offense will likely improve off-setting it as is often the case (see fangraph's piece on similar players in that regard, though I'd argue Simmons isn't as easy to compare that way being so special on defense at a position where defense is so important).

I was referring to his bat and how being that it is fairly mediocre - bad, if his defense declines to avg, he has very little value, aybar was hyperbole.


EDIT:
While at the same time Simmons continues to be great on defense and when he declines but is still great his offense will likely improve off-setting it as is often the case

well, simba has a problem different than many of the players from that article, he is a free swinger with a low K and BB rate, sure he might improve , but he is starting from such a low level that he'd have to do something that rarely happens. change his entire approach to hitting.

I could see Simmons being a 2-3 win player on defense alone for ten years. I could also see him being replacement level in 3


and "likely" isn't a word I would describe. there isn't a lot of evidence for that, there is some evidence for "might"

[Braves1976]

I was referring to his bat

Anything Simmons gives with his bat is a bonus in my book. Aybar even in his gold glove days wasn't in the same zip code as Simmons on defense (though Aybar's bat was better and that likely had something to do with that gold glove the way they give them out). Further, I don't see Simmons bat slipping further long term, if anything I expect it to improve as he ages while his defense slightly declines and overall the package stays about the same. I guess I value that amazing defense of Simmons at short more than you and others around here do (though funny some talked otherwise before the trade, interesting how that goes IMO).

[bravos4evr]

dude, it was hyperbole, you are running way too off the reservation with the aybar thing.........

if Simmobs's defense declines (and it will eventually, the question is how much) if his bat stays 70ish wRC+ he starts to have 1-2 WAR value, and that's not all that hard to find for a few mill a year much less at $14m a yr.

I hope it doesn't happens and he figures it out as he is a dynamite fielder,but not all athletes age the same.

[bravos4evr]

as to the posts about "I expect him to improve with the bat as he ages " thing, that doesn't happen very often, Ozzie Smith made it happen, but he had already posted 10% walk rates before he improved his hitting, he cut his K's down and added a few more BB% pts and this greatly added to his hitting value due to OBP, but his ISO didn't get much better (and even with all that his career wRC+ was 90)

Simmons has a career BB% of 6%, that is not very good. He would need to find 3+% BB%, AND improve his hard contact and line drive % to improve in the same manner say Ozzie did.

Look at him this year, wRC+ of 46, maybe one of his best defensive years (in SSS due to injury) and yet he's been worth exactly 0 WAR (again the injury doesn't help that) a guy like Simmons should be posting 4 WAR years left and right.... his approach or our coaching, sumthing has gotten him in knots.

or maybe the bat just is never going to play up.

If Simmons provides 9 WAR over the next 3.5 seasons we have 12 man seasons worth of Newcomb and Ellis to get there. Maybe they can, maybe they can't, but it wouldn't be that difficult of a chore if they did, nor if they exceeded it. Hell, with Newcomb's ceiling, he could end up a 5 WAR pitcher on his own and this might be the best trade of all.

I miss simmons too, but we can't let emotions get in the way of cold, hard analysis.

[Braves1976]

dude, it was hyperbole, you are running way too off the reservation with the aybar thing.........

if Simmobs's defense declines (and it will eventually, the question is how much) if his bat stays 70ish wRC+ he starts to have 1-2 WAR value, and that's not all that hard to find for a few mill a year much less at $14m a yr.

I hope it doesn't happens and he figures it out as he is a dynamite fielder,but not all athletes age the same.

I didn't see your edit till after my response so I'm not sure how I am doing that exactly? I guess by not assuming hyperbole initially? :) That said, I don't see the danger of decline on his defense being anything on substance or real concern for a while. While right now I look at all the other shortstops in MLB and say Simmons is in a league of his own concerning defense. Save maybe Crawford of the Giants who has had an amazing year here and there of late.

[The Chosen One]

If Simmons' defense declines, he goes from All-Time Once In A Lifetime to league elite to above average.

Barring any significant injuries, he could still be an above average to really dang good defender to his 40's.

[bravos4evr]

If Simmons' defense declines, he goes from All-Time Once In A Lifetime to league elite to above average.

Barring any significant injuries, he could still be an above average to really dang good defender to his 40's.

sure he could be, but if his bat ends up a 65 wRC+ he becomes replacement level. He would be the reverse Adam Dunn!

Like I said I hope it doesn't happen and I loved watching him play SS, but I understand WHY they made the trade, and I think overall it probably provides at least some excess value (I do think it was a little light, but no way I expected Aybar to such THIS bad) but the reason for the trade is fundamentally sound.