#1 pick in doubt

[msstate7]

If we keep Teheran and viz, our pitching staff is getting pretty good

[Carp]

Currently 4 starting pitchers have an ERA under 4.00. Everything could change in a month, but light at the end of this dark tunnel seems to be getting a little closer.

[50PoundHead]

I have to believe the Twins will play better at some point, but at the same time, the Reds will likely play worse (and likely move a few guys at the deadline as well). I'm envisioning a massive sell-off by the Padres by the non-waiver trade deadline, which could put them in the hunt as well. And I still think the Phillies will collapse like an Italian coalition government.

That said, we should still be the favorites.

[msstate7]

Currently 4 starting pitchers have an ERA under 4.00. Everything could change in a month, but light at the end of this dark tunnel seems to be getting a little closer.

3 at our under 3.51

[KB21]

3 at our under 3.51

Plus, it seems the bullpen is starting to come together some with Vizzy, Withrow, the incoming Simmons, Cervenka, Krol, and perhaps Jenkins and Gant full time at some point.

[Tapate50]

Really want that no 1 slot tho...

[gilesfan]

We have the worst team in the majors so it would take a bit of "unluck" to pick further down. Our starting pitching staff has been incredibly lucky so far on the year and that is hard to maintain over the course of an entire year.

Teheran 2.77 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 4.07 xFIP
Wisler 3.21 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 4.66 xFIP
Perez 3.86 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 4.45 xFIP
Folty 3.51 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 4.07 xFIP

[nsacpi]

We have the worst team in the majors so it would take a bit of "unluck" to pick further down. Our starting pitching staff has been incredibly lucky so far on the year and that is hard to maintain over the course of an entire year.

Teheran 2.77 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 4.07 xFIP
Wisler 3.21 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 4.66 xFIP
Perez 3.86 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 4.45 xFIP
Folty 3.51 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 4.07 xFIP

Yet as a staff our numbers are: 4.27 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 4.34 xFIP

[dak]

We have the worst team in the majors so it would take a bit of "unluck" to pick further down. Our starting pitching staff has been incredibly lucky so far on the year and that is hard to maintain over the course of an entire year.

Teheran 2.77 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 4.07 xFIP
Wisler 3.21 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 4.66 xFIP
Perez 3.86 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 4.45 xFIP
Folty 3.51 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 4.07 xFIP

Teheran has out-performed his FIP over a large sample size, so he's a guy that I think fWAR undervalues a bit. Wisler's approach may put him in the same boat, but we need to see more to know for sure. Folty I definitely see as a prime candidate to have his performance (ERA) move pretty close to his FIP by end of year.

[gilesfan]

Yet as a staff our numbers are: 4.27 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 4.34 xFIP

Yeah, the relievers have. But, those guys are going to be cycled in and out so much I'm not sure what to gather from that.

[gilesfan]

Teheran has out-performed his FIP over a large sample size, so he's a guy that I think fWAR undervalues a bit. Wisler's approach may put him in the same boat, but we need to see more to know for sure. Folty I definitely see as a prime candidate to have his performance (ERA) move pretty close to his FIP by end of year.

Im not sue teheran will continue to outperform it. It certainly possible, but I tend to view ground ball heavy guys or guys with a ton of movement as potential outperform your FIP. Its possible though.

[DirkPiggler]

Teheran has out-performed his FIP over a large sample size, so he's a guy that I think fWAR undervalues a bit. Wisler's approach may put him in the same boat, but we need to see more to know for sure. Folty I definitely see as a prime candidate to have his performance (ERA) move pretty close to his FIP by end of year.

Agree with all of that.

Teheran has consistently been about a half run better than his FIP over three complete seasons prior to this year. I see no reason to think that won't continue. He'll probably end up in the low 3s for ERA instead of where he is now, but that's still damned good.

The others really don't have enough of a sample size for their FIP to have any value as a predictor. If I had to guess I'd say the current FIP is about what you'll get out of Wisler and Perez, and F-word will end up bringing his down a good bit over time. But a guess is really all it is at this point until they get more innings behind them.

[DirkPiggler]

Im not sue teheran will continue to outperform it. It certainly possible, but I tend to view ground ball heavy guys or guys with a ton of movement as potential outperform your FIP. Its possible though.

How would you explain the three plus year pattern of outperforming his FIP? I agree that he doesn't really give up enough ground balls to fit that profile, but three plus years in a row is hard to attribute to good luck.

My best guess is that the HR component overstates the FIP for guys who don't give up a lot of base runners.

[Nerfherders]

I don't care as much about the #1 pick if we show marked improvement among the guys we want to keep. I'd rather see a second half close to .500, where we see the team gelling with players we intend to move forward with.

[Russ2dollas]

The other factor with our pitching is that we were terrible on D earlier. We should get better. I know FIP is supposed to take that part out but AJ, Abyar, and Adonis were the 3 worst defenders in america for a long stretch there.

I think our starting pitching is only going to get better. But they are young and will blow up from time to time. Plus we'll manage innings.

And we still have no way to score.

I'm thinking we lost a lot of games 4-2, 3-1, 2-1, etc. Number 1 peak, we are still the favorites.

[yeezus]

using strictly FIP to judge a pitcher is almost as silly as just using ERA. they both count, they both mean something.

[Carp]

We have the worst team in the majors so it would take a bit of "unluck" to pick further down. Our starting pitching staff has been incredibly lucky so far on the year and that is hard to maintain over the course of an entire year.

Teheran 2.77 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 4.07 xFIP
Wisler 3.21 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 4.66 xFIP
Perez 3.86 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 4.45 xFIP
Folty 3.51 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 4.07 xFIP


FIP lol.


Folty has a 3.5 K/BB ratio and a solid WHIP. He's giving up the long ball at high clip, but his other numbers are strong. He certainly could regress but acting like he's been super lucky is stupid. Especially on a team that hasn't been that great on defense so far.

[gilesfan]

How would you explain the three plus year pattern of outperforming his FIP? I agree that he doesn't really give up enough ground balls to fit that profile, but three plus years in a row is hard to attribute to good luck.

My best guess is that the HR component overstates the FIP for guys who don't give up a lot of base runners.

There could be a number of factors. The Braves defense over those 3 years was above average for instance. In the case of the 2016 season, his BABIP is absurdly low at .246, which is a contributing factor. As I said, he could simply be a guy that does it for a career, but I think it is too early to tell. If the Braves defense reverts back to normal for the 2016 season and his BABIP returns to normalcy, it will be interesting to see if he's able to outperform his FIP. Major league average BABIP is roughly .295 and Teheran has been slightly lower than that in the past (Simmons/Heyward/CF Defense?)

[gilesfan]

using strictly FIP to judge a pitcher is almost as silly as just using ERA. they both count, they both mean something.

Good thing no one is doing so.

[gilesfan]

FIP lol.


Folty has a 3.5 K/BB ratio and a solid WHIP. He's giving up the long ball at high clip, but his other numbers are strong. He certainly could regress but acting like he's been super lucky is stupid. Especially on a team that hasn't been that great on defense so far.


Major League average k/bb is currently slightly over 2.5:1 so his is good, but certainly not elite by any means. His home run numbers will certainly stabilize over time; he will not be able to strand runners at a rate of 87% over the long haul.

I couldn't imagine an instance where I would care what a pitchers "WHIP" is, but major league average is 1.31 compared to his 1.26. Folty is a guy that shows a lot of promise to me, but the point his he's at a bit of luck in the young season.

[thewupk]

How would you explain the three plus year pattern of outperforming his FIP? I agree that he doesn't really give up enough ground balls to fit that profile, but three plus years in a row is hard to attribute to good luck.

My best guess is that the HR component overstates the FIP for guys who don't give up a lot of base runners.

Julio is a guy who has outperformed his FIP. That is expected but not by a near full run that it is right now. So some regression is expected but not to a 3.7 ERA. I mean his BABIP against is in the 240's. That's unlikely to be sustained the entire year. The same is especially true for Wisler who's BABIP against is 232. That is very unlikely to continue as well. Just some things to keep in mind.

[chop2chip]

Julio is a guy who has outperformed his FIP. That is expected but not by a near full run that it is right now. So some regression is expected but not to a 3.7 ERA. I mean his BABIP against is in the 240's. That's unlikely to be sustained the entire year. The same is especially true for Wisler who's BABIP against is 232. That is very unlikely to continue as well. Just some things to keep in mind.

That's very reasonable. I would counter though that young pitchers tend to improve upon their peripherals over time (Wisler/Teheran are definitely trending positively since the beginning of May), so while we will likely see a regression in BABIP, we should also be hopeful in their FIPS improving.

[conalthomas]

I have to believe the Twins will play better at some point, but at the same time, the Reds will likely play worse (and likely move a few guys at the deadline as well). I'm envisioning a massive sell-off by the Padres by the non-waiver trade deadline, which could put them in the hunt as well. And I still think the Phillies will collapse like an Italian coalition government.

That said, we should still be the favorites.

I like the metaphor.

[4maddux_cy's]

I haven't studied advanced statistics enough as I should and accept them to be very good and mostly better measurements than in the past. I cannot get over this thought that strikeouts and FIP are the only way a pitcher can be elite. You're telling me Tom Glavine was not an elite pitcher? His FIP numbers and k/9 rates were never overly impressive as far as I can tell.

If I am wrong point out where because I see lots of years in the 4's for Glavine's FIP. I was under the impression that was not good.

[cajunrevenge]

Last time I checked games are won and lost based on the actual runs scored not what some formula thinks the score could have been.

[nsacpi]

I haven't studied advanced statistics enough as I should and accept them to be very good and mostly better measurements than in the past. I cannot get over this thought that strikeouts and FIP are the only way a pitcher can be elite. You're telling me Tom Glavine was not an elite pitcher? His FIP numbers and k/9 rates were never overly impressive as far as I can tell.

If I am wrong point out where because I see lots of years in the 4's for Glavine's FIP. I was under the impression that was not good.

Glavine had a career ERA that out-performed his career xFIP by 100 points. I think that's an alternative way to be an elite pitcher.

Would I be able to identify the next Glavine if I was watching him pitch? I suspect not. So my presumption in watching pretty much any pitcher with non-elite strikeout rates is that he is not going to be the next Glavine.

[mqt]

Last time I checked games are won and lost based on the actual runs scored not what some formula thinks the score could have been.

Nobody is going to argue with you about this. The main reason to look at the advanced metrics of a game where we might have given up only a run or two is to see how likely it is to happen again. Whether a pitcher loads the bases and gets out of it each time or they throw a no-hitter is irrelevant to the game that has already taken place, but I'm going to bet on the pitcher that did the latter to continue seeing success.

[nsacpi]

The other thing to keep in mind is if thousands of people play a game of chance with equal skill, there will be a handful who will do incredibly well. Not that I'm arguing Glavine is one of those. I think he was a very effective pitcher using skills that are much more subtle than the ones we are used to seeing with very successful pitchers.

[bravos4evr]

https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Boards/257/21257/39077.jpg

[thewupk]

I haven't studied advanced statistics enough as I should and accept them to be very good and mostly better measurements than in the past. I cannot get over this thought that strikeouts and FIP are the only way a pitcher can be elite. You're telling me Tom Glavine was not an elite pitcher? His FIP numbers and k/9 rates were never overly impressive as far as I can tell.

If I am wrong point out where because I see lots of years in the 4's for Glavine's FIP. I was under the impression that was not good.

Glavine was a one in a million in that regard. For the vast majority of players FIP is an excellent predictor of future success. It's also important to look at that players baseline. Julio for example has out performed his FIP by half a run regularly. I would expect that to continue for the most part. This year he's out performed it by almost a full run. I don't expect that to continue.

[thewupk]

That's very reasonable. I would counter though that young pitchers tend to improve upon their peripherals over time (Wisler/Teheran are definitely trending positively since the beginning of May), so while we will likely see a regression in BABIP, we should also be hopeful in their FIPS improving.

Yeah that is what we would want to see. I'm definatley encouraged to see his K/9 jump to over 8 again. His HR/9 and BB/9 to drop below 1 an 3. His GB% to jump to 44%. All good signs.

[bravos4evr]

Glavine's skill set included getting the umpire to expand the zone. This helped him get a lot of soft contact. IDK if he would have been as successful in this era where the umps rarely expand the zone laterally anymore.

[mfree80]

Last time I checked games are won and lost based on the actual runs scored not what some formula thinks the score could have been.

Why can't we just add up projected WAR at the beginning of the season and go straight to the playoffs. I think some on here might prefer that. The STAT's would never be wrong. (TIC of course). ;-)

[thewupk]

Glavine's skill set included getting the umpire to expand the zone. This helped him get a lot of soft contact. IDK if he would have been as successful in this era where the umps rarely expand the zone laterally anymore.

He did play in the perfect era for his skill set. Maddux certainly benefited from this as well. That being said I feel his stubbornness was one of his biggest attributes. If Player A won't roll over on your outside junk then who cares if he walks because Player B likely will.

[bravos4evr]

indeed, Glavine never gave in to anyone. IMO, he might have been even better had he thrown inside a little more often, but I reckon he felt he had little reason to do so.

[nsacpi]

Why can't we just add up projected WAR at the beginning of the season and go straight to the playoffs. I think some on here might prefer that. The STAT's would never be wrong. (TIC of course). ;-)

I happen to be one of those who takes pleasure trying to predict how teams and players will perform. But I don't think anyone around here doesn't enjoy the game itself. Those of you who don't enjoy the analytical side of things are free not to indulge. A chacun son gout.

[nsacpi]

indeed, Glavine never gave in to anyone. IMO, he might have been even better had he thrown inside a little more often, but I reckon he felt he had little reason to do so.

I think he threw inside more often than a lot of people realized. Even for a strike now and then.

[thewupk]

I think he threw inside more often than a lot of people realized. Even for a strike now and then.

He did more at the end of his career whenever the umps took the 2 inches off the plate away.

[mfree80]

I happen to be one of those who takes pleasure trying to predict how teams and players will perform. But I don't think anyone around here doesn't enjoy the game itself. Those of you who don't enjoy the analytical side of things are free not to indulge. A chacun son gout.

I don't have a problem with using Stat's until they assume that nobody ever improves, or performs better than they suggest. That happens way to often for my comfort.

[thewupk]

I don't have a problem with using Stat's until they assume that nobody ever improves, or performs better than they suggest. That happens way to often for my comfort.

Nobody assumes any of those things. Players improve, decline, have extended slumps and career years.

[NinersSBChamps]

Keep throwing Blair out there and playing Inciarte and we should have no problems losing 110 games.

[UNCBlue012]

It's all pretty exciting. I love what Wisler has done (I'm a self-proclaimed fanboy) , Teheran has been his (mainly) normal self and Folty has me more excited than I've been about a pitcher's upside in a long time.

[gilesfan]

The purpose of bringing up stats for our pitching staff is because the starting staff has been pretty lucky for the most part. If they revert to "normalcy," we may cruise to the number 1 pick.

[bravesfanMatt]

The purpose of bringing up stats for our pitching staff is because the starting staff has been pretty lucky for the most part. If they revert to "normalcy," we may cruise to the number 1 pick.

Think we end with a top 5 pick. not sure where we end up, but I feel pretty good we should be there at the least. I would be fine if we continue to see good progress from the few major leaguers we do have and finish with a top 5 or 6 pick.

[Preacher]

I think we are fighting the Red and Twins for the top-3 spots.

But its worth falling out of #1 if it means Wisler/Folty/Blair/JT/Perez pitch well.

[bravesfanMatt]

Nobody is going to talk me out of my man-crush on Groome. That's the guy I really want.

Ray feels like a pick we make because we want to go under-slot.

you are preaching in the wrong thread..