System Depth: Middle Infield

[nsacpi]

Over the next few days I'm going to take a look at depth within our system on a position by position basis. I'll kick things off with middle infield. Mostly, I'll focus on what's on the farm, but will include players we have under contractual control for five or more years at the major league level. I'm going to classify the players into three categories. Those I think are likely major league starting material, bench players, and fringe guys.

Starters: Simmons and Peraza. Simmons obviously is already a very good player in the majors. We will have him under control for five more years after this season. My guess is he is going to be our shortstop for a very long time. Jose Peraza is arguably our best position prospect. He's made 29 errors in Rome this year. But errors can be misleading for young players. Peraza is generally considered to have the tools to stick at short. But with Simmons there his future is probably at second. Estimated major league arrival time: 2016-17. He is also an excellent base stealer (61 steals, 15 CS this year) and has a decent eye at the plate, which means he could be our leadoff hitter of the future as well.

Bench Players: Pastornicky, La Stella, Camargo, Castro I think these four project as infield reserves, whether with us or some other major league team. I'd be happy to hold on to both Pastornicky and La Stella, but I think ultimately Pastornicky will prove to be the more valuable player. He's a year younger, has more speed, more positional versatility and is more athletic. La Stella basically is a very good singles hitter, with a very low strikeout rate. Camargo played mostly short this year in Danville, but I suspect he will not be able to stick there as he moves up the system. He's probably not going to be much more than a singles hitter. Maybe a slightly better version of Diory Hernandez. Daniel Castro is a 20 year old we brought in from the Mexican League who held his own in Lynchburg. He was once in our system in the DSL. It is impressive that he held his own in a league where he was one of the younger players. At this point shows very little power, and does not project to develop much.

Fringe: Reyes, Reynolds, Harper. Reyes boosted his prospect stock this year with an excellent season in Lynchburg at age 22. He's athletic and has a good enough glove to stick at short. Has very little power and I suspect some of his improvement this year was a BABIP illusion. I'm curious to see how he does in the AFL. Reynolds and Harper were drafted as college seniors and played against younger players in Danville and the GCL respectively. They did well, but we need to see them in a full-season league before drawing any conclusions. Even if they continue to hit, they are more likely to play at second or third than short as they move up the system.

Conclusion: The long-term future at second and short is pretty clear. Peraza and Simmons. The cloudy part is the transition period between Uggla and Peraza. Will Uggla stick around the last two years of his contract? Will he be eased out in favor of Pastornicky or La Stella or the currently injured Ramiro Pena? Will the team explore an external option? These things are on the table. My guess is that in 2014-2015 we will have an increasingly competitive position sharing sort of arrangement at second between Uggla, Pastornicky, Pena and La Stella.

[goosecreekbrave]

Great write-up! I know 3rd base is a corner IF spot and not MI, but prospects move around a lot between 3rd, 2nd, and SS. Any of these guys a fix for future 3B openings? You'll probably do a corner IF post, but just wondering. If you do one, I think we're set at 1B lol

[nsacpi]

Great write-up! I know 3rd base is a corner IF spot and not MI, but prospects move around a lot between 3rd, 2nd, and SS. Any of these guys a fix for future 3B openings? You'll probably do a corner IF post, but just wondering. If you do one, I think we're set at 1B lol

Middle infielders can usually handle third fine. Think of Martin Prado for example. So it is certainly possible that the players I discussed above could be part of the long-term solution at third. One scenario that comes to mind is this: suppose La Stella settles into second at the major league level. My guess is that they would then consider playing Peraza (who has a better arm than La Stella) at third. He would bring a combination of speed and on base skills unusual for third, but it would not be the first time that happened.

[Carp]

I think your opinion on La Stella is way off. He has very good gap power and terrific plate discipline. Much more than just a singles hitter. He looks like he has more of a future with the major league club than Peraza at this point. Would not surprise me to see us trade Uggla this winter and go with Pastor and La Stella at 2b next yr.

[nsacpi]

La Stella ISO in AA this year: .135.

[Carp]

And? Never said he was going to hit a lot of homers, but no reason he couldn't knock 40+ doubles a yr. Combine that with his ability to hit for average, whil taking a lot of walks, and rarely striking out, and it's much more than just a back-up type of player.

He looks much more like a he'll be useful major league hitter than Peraza anyways.

[nsacpi]

La Stella has an ISO at age 24 in AA that is similar to someone like Omar Infante in the majors. I'd be very happy to get Omar Infante type production from my second baseman. But the question is whether what La Stella is doing at age 24 in AA projects to something similar in the majors. A conservative adjustment would be to reduce any player's offensive output in AA by about 20% when projecting to the majors. Now that is an average. Some will do better, some worse. The question is what is a reasonable projection for a 24 year old player in AA. I think it would be substantially below what Omar Infante is doing in the majors. And then there is the question of defense. By all reports, La Stella is well below Infante as a defender. I'm rooting for him, as I root for all Braves prospects, but I try not to wear rose tinted glasses when making evaluations. He's had a terrific season in AA. No doubt about that.

[thewupk]

Players that walk more then the strikeout are always worth giving a long look at. I would be interested to know what his ld% is. And it's not just his year at AA. He's been great in pro ball the entire time.

[nsacpi]

More walks than strikeouts is a good thing. But it doesn't equate to being a great hitter. Mark Lemke had more walks than strikeouts in his major league career and in his minor league career. Lemke is a very interesting comparison to ponder. He showed more power than La Stella in his minor league career. Yes you read that right. More power. Lemke had minor league seasons of 18, 20 and 16 home runs, the last one as a 22 year old in AA. La Stella has 4 home runs this year as a 24 year old in AA.

While I'm on the subject of Braves second basemen of the past, Jeff Treadway is another good comparison. He had a season in AAA as a 23 year old that was quite similar to the year La Stella is having this year. But do note that he was a level higher at one year younger. Treadway also walked more than he struck out while in the minors.

I would be happy if La Stella turned into a Treadway. I don't think he will be another Lemke because so much of the Lemmer's value was in his glove.

[thethe]

I was all aboard the LaStella bandwagon but the fact teh Braves did not call him up when Uggla went down changed my mind. He is not ready and with the lack of power I don't think he will be an everyday player. He will fit on this team because they won't need much production from second base but I agree with nsacpi.

[nsacpi]

I was all aboard the LaStella bandwagon but the fact teh Braves did not call him up when Uggla went down changed my mind. He is not ready and with the lack of power I don't think he will be an everyday player. He will fit on this team because they won't need much production from second base but I agree with nsacpi.

I'm concerned about you agreeing with me. Did someone break into your house and walk away with the rose tinted glasses?

;)

Seriously though, I could see La Stella getting a lot of playing time in a platoon with Pastornicky. Both of them have the conventional splits that would argue for such an arrangement. We are going to have to go cheap at three or four positions and second could be one of them. In some ways, there is going to be a competition of sorts within positions but also between positions. Do we go cheap with La Stella/Pastornicky at second, or Salcedo/Kubitza/Caratini at third or Cunningham/Lipka/Wren in center. It will happen, but the particular positions where it happens depends on how these guys develop and also how easily the current incumbents at those positions can be moved. The fact that Peraza can potentially play second, center or third will give us some interesting choices to make.

[Carp]

La Stella has an ISO at age 24 in AA that is similar to someone like Omar Infante in the majors. I'd be very happy to get Omar Infante type production from my second baseman. But the question is whether what La Stella is doing at age 24 in AA projects to something similar in the majors. A conservative adjustment would be to reduce any player's offensive output in AA by about 20% when projecting to the majors. Now that is an average. Some will do better, some worse. The question is what is a reasonable projection for a 24 year old player in AA. I think it would be substantially below what Omar Infante is doing in the majors. And then there is the question of defense. By all reports, La Stella is well below Infante as a defender. I'm rooting for him, as I root for all Braves prospects, but I try not to wear rose tinted glasses when making evaluations. He's had a terrific season in AA. No doubt about that.

But his career minor isoSLG is .171. That's higher than Matt Carpenter's career iso and Dustin Pedroia's career iso.

Not saying that La Stella is going to be as good as these guys, but he's much more talented of a hitter than you are giving him credit for.

[zitothebrave]

La Stella ISO in AA this year: .135.

Would you call Chris Johnson a singles hitter? He has an iso of .138 this year.

No one expects LaStella to be a world beater otherwise he would be a top 10 prospect. But you cannot deny that this kid has never stopped hitting.

The focus on his age isn't too fair either he has 3 years of professional experience. Was Utley lesser of a player because he didn't make his major league debut until 24? Prado's minor league iso was aroudn .1, no one would say he's a singles hitter.

I think your assessment on La Stella is unfair, as is thethe's "they didn't bring him up when Uggla was gonna miss 15 days" theory. Maybe the Braves didn't want to bring him up because it was only gonna be for 15 games and getting reps in AA would be better for his advancement.

All I know about La Stella is that for his career he's hit .326, every scouting report on him talks about how easily he sprays the ball from gap to gap, and his career K% is an impressively low 8.7% while his BB% is an impressively good 11.2% FWIW if he brought those numbers to the majors he would be 3rd amongst starters (well second since he'd be replacing Uggla) and a close second to Simmons in K% (Current second is Heyward at 16.5%)

Basically imagine if Simmons offensively walked way more, and hit more linedrives and that's what La Stella is.

Until Tommy stops hitting I'll assume he has a gift for hitting. My only concern with him is health. Defense I've read a mixed bag of reviews, some don't like it some think it's solid. I really think he's gonna be our next Prado but maybe better of a hitter but lesser of a defender.

[nsacpi]

Would you call Chris Johnson a singles hitter? He has an iso of .138 this year.




What kind of major league ISO would you project for a 24 year old putting up an ISO of .135 in AA?

[Carp]

I was all aboard the LaStella bandwagon but the fact teh Braves did not call him up when Uggla went down changed my mind. He is not ready and with the lack of power I don't think he will be an everyday player. He will fit on this team because they won't need much production from second base but I agree with nsacpi.

La Stella wasn't called up and likely won't be called up this yr primarily b/c he isn't on the 40 man roster and b/c he hasn't played above AA. Has nothing to do with lack of power or defensive abilities.

[nsacpi]

I really think he's gonna be our next Prado but maybe better of a hitter but lesser of a defender.

Prado has a career OPS of .783.

I expect La Stella to be in the .700-.750 range in the majors. A bit higher against righties. Omar Infante is a .720 OPS career hitter. I see La Stella as similar in terms of hitting, but obviously not in the same class as a defender.

[nsacpi]

La Stella wasn't called up and likely won't be called up this yr primarily b/c he isn't on the 40 man roster and b/c he hasn't played above AA. Has nothing to do with lack of power or defensive abilities.

It is a mix of reasons. It is worth noting than none of Terdoslavich, Cunningham and Gosselin were on the 40-man when the decision was made to call them up. Gosselin had a limited number of AAA at bats at the time.

[Carp]

What kind of major league ISO would you project for a 24 year old putting up an ISO of .135 in AA?

You're using a sample size of 1 season though (honestly more like a half a season). Why not use his career numbers if we're trying to project players?

Dustin Pedroia posted a .130 iso his last full yr in the minors, which was significantly lower than his career numbers at the time.

[zitothebrave]

What kind of major league ISO would you project for a 24 year old putting up an ISO of .135 in AA?

Probably around .150-.170

Considering as a 23 year old in AAA Prado had an iso of .105 (and as a 24 in AA as well though that was a rehab assignment, just wanted to point out the uncanny same iso in a SSS) I don't think repeating the same iso in the majors is out of the question. Generally you have more power in the majors than the minors because you're playing your most physically mature seasons in the majors where your body isn't changing much same is true with guys who make old debuts. Some examples

Ryan Howard major league iso .274 minor league iso .250. Jason Bay major league iso .215 minor league iso .185 Chase Utley major league iso .212 minor league .182, Jayson Werth Major League iso .196 minor league iso .160, Dan Uggla major league iso .214 minor league .167

Any small amount of research would tell you that generally guys get more power in the majors than in the minors. Sure there are some cases otherwise but La Stella is showing very positive numbers where regression is most likely (BB% and K%) and has a decent but not amazing iso.

If he got to majors and say had a 10% K% 10% BB% and .150 iso that's a pretty similar numbers to the career averages Pedroia. Obviously Pedroia is a MUCH better defender, but Pedroia also wasn't too highly thought of as a prospect. Never cracking the BA top 100. if La Stella could hit like Pedroia and be acceptable with the glove he'd be an excellent value player.

[zitothebrave]

Prado has a career OPS of .783.

I expect La Stella to be in the .700-.750 range in the majors. A bit higher against righties. Omar Infante is a .720 OPS career hitter. I see La Stella as similar in terms of hitting, but obviously not in the same class as a defender.

Infante had a minor league iso of .067

Come on make a serious comparison.

[Carp]

It is a mix of reasons. It is worth noting than none of Terdoslavich, Cunningham and Gosselin were on the 40-man when the decision was made to call them up. Gosselin had a limited number of AAA at bats at the time.

Terdo and Cunningham were brought up due to several injuries in the OF, a position La Stella has not played. And both of these guys have seen playing time above AA. At the time Uggla went down, we had planned on using only Pastor and Janish . Gosselin was brought up purely a defensive replacement to replace Pastor after he went down. And he can play multiple positions as well.

This isn't just my opinion either. Several articles echo the same sentiments about La Stella. TomahawkTake even mentioned it was unlikely La Stella would be up at all this yr, even for Septemeber call ups. And they mentioned this before Uggla even went on the DL.

[Carp]

Probably around .150-.170

Considering as a 23 year old in AAA Prado had an iso of .105 (and as a 24 in AA as well though that was a rehab assignment, just wanted to point out the uncanny same iso in a SSS) I don't think repeating the same iso in the majors is out of the question. Generally you have more power in the majors than the minors because you're playing your most physically mature seasons in the majors where your body isn't changing much same is true with guys who make old debuts. Some examples

Ryan Howard major league iso .274 minor league iso .250. Jason Bay major league iso .215 minor league iso .185 Chase Utley major league iso .212 minor league .182, Jayson Werth Major League iso .196 minor league iso .160, Dan Uggla major league iso .214 minor league .167

Any small amount of research would tell you that generally guys get more power in the majors than in the minors. Sure there are some cases otherwise but La Stella is showing very positive numbers where regression is most likely (BB% and K%) and has a decent but not amazing iso.

If he got to majors and say had a 10% K% 10% BB% and .150 iso that's a pretty similar numbers to the career averages Pedroia. Obviously Pedroia is a MUCH better defender, but Pedroia also wasn't too highly thought of as a prospect. Never cracking the BA top 100. if La Stella could hit like Pedroia and be acceptable with the glove he'd be an excellent value player.


Exactly

[nsacpi]

I'm pretty sure ISO typically drops when converted to their major league equivalents. Since the conversion is based on an average, you can always find some players who do better than average as they move to the majors and some who do worse.

[zitothebrave]

I'm pretty sure ISO typically drops when converted to their major league equivalents. Since the conversion is based on an average, you can always find some players who do better than average as they move to the majors and some who do worse.

Some guys may be exceptions. But in general players gain power as they get into their late 20s.

You're also ignoring that La Stella had higher isos the last 2 seasons.

[nsacpi]

If anyone wants to investigate ISO numbers, thebaseballcube.com has the major league and minor league numbers for each player. You can click on the "advanced" tab for each player to see their numbers.

I just took a quick look for Braves players. Most have higher career minor league ISO's than career major league ISO's.

There is an interesting pattern, however. The exceptions are mainly guys drafted out of high school who played young relative to the minor leagues they were in. This includes McCann, Freeman, the Uptons. Also Uggla who is an exception to the exceptions as a classical late bloomer.

The guys who were drafted as college players tend to have higher career minor league ISO's because for the most part they played old relative to their minor leagues. Guys in this group include Laird, Reed Johnson, Elliot Johnson, Chris Johnson, Janish, Gattis, Simmons, Terdoslavich. Also a couple high school draftees (Schafer and Heyward) so far have lower major league ISO's than their career numbers in the minors.

So the two main points just from looking at the guys on the Braves roster is that most players have lower career major league ISO's than career minor league ISO's. The exceptions are mostly guys who were drafted as high school players and played young relative to their leagues coming up through the minors.

I think the implications relative to La Stella are rather obvious and reinforce my views about him.

[zitothebrave]

Gattis, Simmons, and Terds have very small sample sizes. Can't believe you're using them as your case samples. That's straight up clown tactics.

But thanks to your tip saves me some time

Some more guys with higher major league iso than minor league

David Ortiz, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Napoli, Victorino, David Ross, JJ Hardy, McLouth, Tulo, Helton, and I could go on.

In general most guys I've looked at are about the same as they are in the minors or better. They don't regress too much.

[nsacpi]

Gattis, Simmons, and Terds have very small sample sizes. Can't believe you're using them as your case samples. That's straight up clown tactics.



The data are what they are. They were free to speak as they wish. No coercive techniques were used. I counted McCann on the other side of the ledger even though his career major league ISO is all of one point higher than his career minor league ISO. Even if you exclude the players you have objections to due to small sample size my two main conclusions would not be affected. More players on the Braves roster have higher minor league ISO's. And the exceptions are predominantly guys drafted out of high school (I suspect international players would follow a pattern similar to high school draftees because they too start their careers at an early age and tend to play young relative to their leagues; see Bethancourt, Salcedo, Peraza for players for whom this consideration is relevant but with the opposite implication from La Stella).

It is interesting to apply these considerations to our centerfield prospects. Cunningham and Wren were drafted out of college and statistically have shown better results than Lipka who was drafted out of high school. But Lipka has been much younger for his league compared to the other two. It will be interesting to see which one ends up doing better. I have no particular fondness for Lipka, but the data suggest that age relative to league is something that is very important to take into account when assessing a prospect. Of course there are exceptions. Uggla. Gattis. Maybe La Stella will be another exception.

[jpack1]

Players almost always show more power in the majors. Almost always. If he is capable defensively he will be a starter. A good comp is closer to Kelly Johnson with more contract.

[Carp]

The data are what they are. They were free to speak as they wish. No coercive techniques were used. I counted McCann on the other side of the ledger even though his career major league ISO is all of one point higher than his career minor league ISO. Even if you exclude the players you have objections to due to small sample size my two main conclusions would not be affected. More players on the Braves roster have higher minor league ISO's. And the exceptions are predominantly guys drafted out of high school (I suspect international players would follow a pattern similar to high school draftees because they too start their careers at an early age and tend to play young relative to their leagues; see Bethancourt, Salcedo, Peraza for players for whom this consideration is relevant but with the opposite implication from La Stella).

It is interesting to apply these considerations to our centerfield prospects. Cunningham and Wren were drafted out of college and statistically have shown better results than Lipka who was drafted out of high school. But Lipka has been much younger for his league compared to the other two. It will be interesting to see which one ends up doing better. I have no particular fondness for Lipka, but the data suggest that age relative to league is something that is very important to take into account when assessing a prospect. Of course there are exceptions. Uggla. Gattis. Maybe La Stella will be another exception.


For the most part, I think you will find, among players who are above at their position, that they show better power numbers in the majors as they grow older compared to their minor league numbers. Obviously guys who are averagish or utility types of players are going to see their numbers decrease in the majors, as the level of competition is simply much higher

[nsacpi]

For the most part, I think you will find, among players who are above at their position, that they show better power numbers in the majors as they grow older compared to their minor league numbers. Obviously guys who are averagish or utility types of players are going to see their numbers decrease in the majors, as the level of competition is simply much higher

That's a tricky statistical issue. If you look just at very good major league players, you are restricting yourself to a particular portion of the distribution of outcomes. There is nothing pre-ordained about La Stella or any other minor leaguer becoming a very good major league player.

I think the right statistical approach is to look at a group of players who produced similar numbers at a similar age in AA, and see what happened with that group. There will be some who washed out, some who were fringe major leaguers, some who were backups in the majors and some who became very good major leaguers. But that kind of approach will give you a good look at the distribution of possibilities.

[Carp]

That's a tricky statistical issue. If you look just at very good major league players, you are restricting yourself to a particular portion of the distribution of outcomes. There is nothing pre-ordained about La Stella or any other minor leaguer becoming a very good major league player.

I think the right statistical approach is to look at a group of players who produced similar numbers at a similar age in AA, and see what happened with that group. There will be some who washed out, some who were fringe major leaguers, some who were backups in the majors and some who became very good major leaguers. But that kind of approach will give you a good look at the distribution of possibilities.

Yet you are assuming he'll hit for less power in the majors, and you yourself labeled him as a bench player. He's played in about half a season's worth of games in AA. He could have a 2 homer game and be right around his career minor league numbers. Without looking, I'd be willing to bet a week or two ago it was probably much higher.

[50PoundHead]

My 2 and 1/2 cents.

I don't think Omar Infante and Kelly Johnson are good comparisons for LaStella. When Infante was LaStella's age, he had already played in more than 400 major league games. I doubt LaStella will have anything close to Johnson's power.

He may be a left-handed version of Prado. When I first saw Prado, I never thought he'd develop into the player he has. His minor league power numbers look very similar to LaStella's and LaStella has better overall on-base skills at the minor league level. Prado was, and remains, pretty much batting average-driven as a player. So it's not out of the question that LaStella could have a similar development arc. But again, Prado hit the bigs (although not full-time) when he was 22. I think his K numbers will rise and his BB rate will decline, but both are good so he can accommodate some decline without eroding his position as a prospect.

One has to keep in mind that LaStella was a college player, so that has slowed him down a bit, but I think the bigger issue for LaStella is going to be health. He's missed considerable time in both of the last two seasons and maybe he's one of those guys who isn't going to be able to stay on the field. He bears watching and I'm sure the Braves are watching him. Hope he does well in the Arizona Fall League. Bottom line, I think he's got a chance to be a decent mid-ceiling guy.

I think one of the reasons he wasn't brought up is that he doesn't have to go on the 40-man roster until after next season and Uggla wasn't sidelined for the season.

[skillet]

I agree with those that would put La Stella in the starter group, certainly not on the bench group. The bottom line is he has excelled at the plate for the 239 games he has played in the minor leagues. A career slash line of .326/.411/.497/.908 is excellent. He is essentially doing that same production in AA and has an OBP of .422 there which is phenomenal. I can only hope that somehow we can trade Uggla in the offseason and implant Tommy at 2nd.

[nsacpi]

Tommy La Stella has put up an OPS of .891 in AA at age 24.

Between 2005 and 2012, there have been eight players who have put up OPS between .850 and .900 in the Southern League at age 24.

Here is the list: Justin Ruggiano, James D'Antona, John Raynor, Johan Limonta, Cole Gillespie, Alfredo Silverio, Tyler Kuhn, Christian Marrero.

I'll throw out another player to consider. This player also played in the Southern League this year. He also had more walks than strikeouts. He also was drafted out of college, though after his junior year. He played mostly second, but also played some third and short this season. He had an OPS slightly higher than La Stella's while in the Southern League. He has some speed, with 20 stolen bases in the Southern League this year with 5 CS. He showed more power than La Stella with an ISO this year in the Southern League of .193 to .135 for La Stella. He did this at age 22. He is bigger, faster, stronger than La Stella. This is the type of player I would project as a starter in the majors.

Maybe La Stella will end up being the better player. But I bring up this other player to illustrate how tough the competition is. Making it to the majors is a tremendous accomplishment. But making it as a starter requires another level of talent entirely.

I should note that the player I described above is NOT considered a mega prospect. He is not going to be on any of the Top 100 prospect lists. That should provide some perspective on how tough the competition is out there for jobs in the major leagues.

[zitothebrave]

K% of the guys you listed as well as their 24 year old season service tiem

Ruggiano K% 22% service time 1 year
D'Antona K% 16.9% service time 1 year
Raynor K% 22.8% Service time 3 years
Limonta K% 21.5% Service time 4 years
Gillaspie K% 18.5% Service time 3 years (actually was 23 when he was in AA but I'll forgive you)
Silverio K% 15.9% Service time 5 years
Kuhn K% 13.6% Service time 5 years
Marrero K% 14.0% service time 6 years

Only guy somewhat close to La Stella is Gillaspie who has double the K% everyone else either did it much later or much earlier with a much higher K%.

What you're essentially proving is that blind comparison's based on one result are biased and essentially foolish.

[zitothebrave]

Fun fact. In 2013, with a minimum 300 PA requirement, La Stella is 25th in the Southern league in iso. The league leader? .227. The year before the leader was higher at .269 but Tommy would have been around the same spot. 2 years ago is where you'd have to go back to for Tommy not to be in the top 30. I think that it's largely safe to say that the Southern League isn't overly power friendly for most.

[nsacpi]

K% of the guys you listed as well as their 24 year old season service tiem

Ruggiano K% 22% service time 1 year
D'Antona K% 16.9% service time 1 year
Raynor K% 22.8% Service time 3 years
Limonta K% 21.5% Service time 4 years
Gillaspie K% 18.5% Service time 3 years (actually was 23 when he was in AA but I'll forgive you)
Silverio K% 15.9% Service time 5 years
Kuhn K% 13.6% Service time 5 years
Marrero K% 14.0% service time 6 years

Only guy somewhat close to La Stella is Gillaspie who has double the K% everyone else either did it much later or much earlier with a much higher K%.

What you're essentially proving is that blind comparison's based on one result are biased and essentially foolish.

What players would be on your list of guys that are comparable to La Stella?

[Teheran_49]

La Stella has an ISO at age 24 in AA that is similar to someone like Omar Infante in the majors. I'd be very happy to get Omar Infante type production from my second baseman. But the question is whether what La Stella is doing at age 24 in AA projects to something similar in the majors. A conservative adjustment would be to reduce any player's offensive output in AA by about 20% when projecting to the majors. Now that is an average. Some will do better, some worse. The question is what is a reasonable projection for a 24 year old player in AA. I think it would be substantially below what Omar Infante is doing in the majors. And then there is the question of defense. By all reports, La Stella is well below Infante as a defender. I'm rooting for him, as I root for all Braves prospects, but I try not to wear rose tinted glasses when making evaluations. He's had a terrific season in AA. No doubt about that.

So you wouldn't take Matt Carpenter as your 2b? I think people have over valued home runs. La Stella has shown plenty of gap power and so what if he only hits 10 HR's a year give me a guy who drives in runs and gets on base. I love the way the cardinals have constructed their line-up and just look at their team hitting stats. You only need 2-3 guys that will hit over 20+ HR's(Freeman,heyward and JUp) outside of that give me guys that hit for average and get on base. I think your under valuing La Stella and he has done nothing but show incredible plate discipline and good gap power which is a recipe for success.

[nsacpi]

So you wouldn't take Matt Carpenter as your 2b? I think people have over valued home runs. La Stella has shown plenty of gap power and so what if he only hits 10 HR's a year give me a guy who drives in runs and gets on base. I love the way the cardinals have constructed their line-up and just look at their team hitting stats. You only need 2-3 guys that will hit over 20+ HR's(Freeman,heyward and JUp) outside of that give me guys that hit for average and get on base. I think your under valuing La Stella and he has done nothing but show incredible plate discipline and good gap power which is a recipe for success.

Sure I would take Matt Carpenter. And my question for you is, what are the odds La Stella turns into a Matt Carpenter?

[zitothebrave]

Honestly I cannot think of a direct comparison for La Stella. Watching him I see Prado. Though a left handed version of him with more patience. Statwise who knows. I think the closest comp I can think of of a guy who doesn't have a ton of power, didn't make it to the majors until he was a bit older, and walked nearly as much as he K'd and all I can think of right now is Jacoby Ellsbury. Though Ellsbury had worse power in the minors than La Stella did. Maybe Alberto Callaspo.

I don't really know who to compare him to because you have to consider tons of factors. The facts we're dealing with are for the negative he is a bit old for his level, his glove is questionable, and health. Health is the only real concern of mine. You can improve the glove and age is just a number, sure it means we'll have less productive major league seasons out of him, but the positive is we can Jason Bay him and get all of his positive offensive seasons then let him leave via FA to be overpaid by someone. The positives for him is that he hits. He has never even remotely faltered on that category. Seems to me he has good line drive skills and has more of a Freeman swing where he can put the ball from gap to gap and not have to deal with extreme shifts as much.

[nsacpi]

Honestly I cannot think of a direct comparison for La Stella. Watching him I see Prado. Though a left handed version of him with more patience. Statwise who knows. I think the closest comp I can think of of a guy who doesn't have a ton of power, didn't make it to the majors until he was a bit older, and walked nearly as much as he K'd and all I can think of right now is Jacoby Ellsbury. Though Ellsbury had worse power in the minors than La Stella did. Maybe Alberto Callaspo.

I don't really know who to compare him to because you have to consider tons of factors. The facts we're dealing with are for the negative he is a bit old for his level, his glove is questionable, and health. Health is the only real concern of mine. You can improve the glove and age is just a number, sure it means we'll have less productive major league seasons out of him, but the positive is we can Jason Bay him and get all of his positive offensive seasons then let him leave via FA to be overpaid by someone. The positives for him is that he hits. He has never even remotely faltered on that category. Seems to me he has good line drive skills and has more of a Freeman swing where he can put the ball from gap to gap and not have to deal with extreme shifts as much.

Well it's good to know that only successful major league players come to mind.

In the interests of fairness and balance, I'll throw out another name that Braves historians might remember: Ed Giovanola. Check out Ed's age 24 season in AA in particular. Deja voodoo all over again.

[Teheran_49]

Sure I would take Matt Carpenter. And my question for you is, what are the odds La Stella turns into a Matt Carpenter?

Check out Matt Carpenter's minor league stats they are eerily similar to La Stella's. Let's take Carpenter's AA season and compare them to La Stella's. Carpenter was 24 in 2010 where he at AA in the Texas league(which if I'm not mistaken is known as a better hitters league than the Southern. Though not 100%) and La Stella is also 24 in AA.

Carpenter's stats that year:
AB-396
BA-.316
2b-26
HR-12
RBI-53
BB-64
SO-88
OBP-.412
OPS-.900

La Stella:
AB-278
BA-.338
2b-21
HR-4
RBI-40
BB-37
SO-33
OBP-.420
OPS-.891

Now Carpenter had about 120 more AB's and tends to walk a bit more but also strike out. As you can see La Stella has almost as many doubles as Carpenter has in less AB's but Carp does have more power numbers but I think La Stella could hit 10-15 HR's in the majors. I could also see a left handed Prado or the Callaspo comps. Callaspo had very good seasons in 2009 and 2011 but I'm wondering where his BA has went the past two seasons? Still, La Stella's bat compares to guys who are good-very good starting 2B which bodes well for the guy. I can see the health concerns Zito wrote about but there is no doubt the guy can hit and since he's been healthy the guy has lit it up in the batters box. His skills should translate well at the ML level.

[nsacpi]

Check out Matt Carpenter's minor league stats they are eerily similar to La Stella's. Let's take Carpenter's AA season and compare them to La Stella's. Carpenter was 24 in 2010 where he at AA in the Texas league(which if I'm not mistaken is known as a better hitters league than the Southern. Though not 100%) and La Stella is also 24 in AA.

Carpenter's stats that year:
AB-396
BA-.316
2b-26
HR-12
RBI-53
BB-64
SO-88
OBP-.412
OPS-.900

La Stella:
AB-278
BA-.338
2b-21
HR-4
RBI-40
BB-37
SO-33
OBP-.420
OPS-.891

Now Carpenter had about 120 more AB's and tends to walk a bit more but also strike out. As you can see La Stella has almost as many doubles as Carpenter has in less AB's but Carp does have more power numbers but I think La Stella could hit 10-15 HR's in the majors. I could also see a left handed Prado or the Callaspo comps. Callaspo had very good seasons in 2009 and 2011 but I'm wondering where his BA has went the past two seasons? Still, La Stella's bat compares to guys who are good-very good starting 2B which bodes well for the guy. I can see the health concerns Zito wrote about but there is no doubt the guy can hit and since he's been healthy the guy has lit it up in the batters box. His skills should translate well at the ML level.

So what do you think the odds are that La Stella will become another Matt Carpenter.

[thethe]

So what do you think the odds are that La Stella will become another Matt Carpenter.

I don't know what the odds are but if he does we are winning a world series in the next three years.

[Teheran_49]

So what do you think the odds are that La Stella will become another Matt Carpenter.

You never know until the guy gets his shot. I think he could be close just because he has done it since day 1 of being drafted. Look at Matin's minor league numbers. High average and struck out as much as he walked but he never had the numbers La Stella has and didn't get on base at the absurd rate La Stella does. I just have a really good feeling this kid could be a great player for us and if he's anything close to what he's shown in the minors than he's exactly what we need. I hear people question his fielding but his fielding% is at 98% and we always heard how Gattis was a butcher at catcher and I never really saw it.

If he tears up the AFL then FW has to get rid of Dan and let La Stella get his shot. What I've seen from La Stella in the limited tape I've seen is the kid has pretty good power and hits the ball to all fields. Also, his opposite field power is dang good and he stays on top of the ball. There's just too much that I've seen to not say this guy won't be successful.

Here's some clips of La Stella:
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=30055479


http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=30223933


http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=29875637