Snitker?

[USMA76]

Don't know if this has been discussed in any previous thread but...

Given the way we've played in a bunch of [admittedly meaningless] games in the past couple of months, is there any chance we don't remove the "interim" label from his job title?

Under Fredi, it seems like we were mathematically eliminated by mid-June so I really don't see any way Snitker isn't given the chance next year to manage games that do count.

[UNCBlue012]

Like him or not, you almost have too. The players are thriving under him, and whether it's all random or not, it's pretty incredible.

[rico43]

He seems to have the team chemistry factor working in his favor. I'm not sure they ever had this much fun even under Cox.

[thewupk]

He seems to have the team chemistry factor working in his favor. I'm not sure they ever had this much fun even under Cox.

I'm pretty sure they did when they were owning everybody in the 90's.

[USMA76]

While I like what I've seen of late, there's a completely different mentality between playing with nothing to lose versus playing with a season on the line.

[bravesfanMatt]

I think with so many keys guys endorsing Snit, you almost need to go with him until he proves he can't. I would personally prefer someone else.. but we could do worse than Snit:FrediConfident:

[GovClintonTyree]

Concur with consensus. He wouldn't have been on my list, but this is impossible to ignore.

[MadduxFanII]

It would be one thing if there was some great backlog of managerial candidates available in the off-season. But as it stands, the choice is between Snitker, Bud Black-esque retreads or an uninspired group of guys who've never been managers before. I see no reason not to give Snitker a chance over the other realistic options. It's not as though we're spurning Joe Maddon.

[The Chosen One]

Pass on Snit.

Would rather have Eddie or TP if we're going to stay internally.

But Coppy seems adamant about going taking a chance outside the organization.

So we'll see.

Personally I'd just hire Fredi back. He deserves a go with the new talent infused on this team.

[Enscheff]

Snitker is just a letter swap from Stinker.

Pass.

[goldfly]

don't really want him but whatever

**** getting TP to run this team. i firmly believe in the TP curse and would like him out of the organization

don't care if Eddie gets it or not

but would rather take someone else but if Bobby still has some pull (unfortunately) I would wager we stay with Snit

[50PoundHead]

Word of warning from the great Northwest. The Twins had a similar situation in 1980. Team had played poorly under Gene Mauch and replaced him with John Goryl late in the season. Team finished 23-13 under Goryl and the interim manager got the job. Twins started 11-25 in 1981 and Goryl was gone by May.

I don't have anything against Snitker, but I hope they don't simply hand him the reins. His handling of the bullpen has improved as the season has worn on, but I still worry that he's going to wear them out if he is in charge from the get-go.

[thewupk]

I think the team needs someone from outside the organization.

[JohnAdcox]

Eddie was my choice, but Snit has won me over. He's got my vote.

[Knucksie]

Pass on Snit.

Would rather have Eddie or TP if we're going to stay internally.

Niether of these guys has the experience though.


But Coppy seems adamant about going taking a chance outside the organization.

So we'll see.

Personally I'd just hire Fredi back. He deserves a go with the new talent infused on this team.

Kind of with him myself, myself, on this one. Bud Black has a proven track record. No denying the effect that Snitker's had, but some of that is reaction from departure of Freddi. They're going to want to get to the next level. He's shown that he can help take a team from laughingstock to .500, but can he help bring them into contending position? We always have to remember that some of the 2nd half factors were players and personnel moves: Inciarte returning to full strength, younger starters gaining experience (particularly Folty), Kemp adding power and protection in the lineup for FF, etc.

[smootness]

While I like what I've seen of late, there's a completely different mentality between playing with nothing to lose versus playing with a season on the line.

Eh, you could just as easily argue that it's tougher to keep a team with nothing to play for ready and hungry.

In fact, I feel like I've seen more teams in our position fall off the map than suddenly play free and win.

[57Brave]

How many comeback wins this latest stretch ?

His coaching staff are there to monitor/advise bullpen usage - this seems to be an organizational issue dating back to Bobby Cox
....

How did Matt Kemp perform under Bud Black ? Guessing here if you or the front office asked Kemps preferance, after playing under both , he'd vote for Snit.
The way the players performed under Snit I think they will have a lot of input on the decision

[Nerfherders]

So much of a manager's job is keeping the players loose and focused. I've never seen a Braves team having more fun than this one, even when they were losing. I have to imagine that starts and ends with the manager.

The rest of the manager's job is pretty easy, especially when you have the talent. You make a bullpen order, a lineup that works, and manage the starting pitcher workload. My vote is for Snitker until he proves he can't do it.

[Enscheff]

I want a manager that doesn't bat Adonis Garcia, or any hitter with a ~.300 OBP, in the #2 slot.

Oh, and he can't bat that guy leadoff either. It's those types of fundamental mistakes that are unforgivable because they are so easily corrected.

[mqt]

I certainly can't take anything away from Snitker, but I still would look elsewhere. He just gives me the vibe of an interim manager who gets some momentum in a small sample and then never lives up to that success.

[bravesnumberone]

I think they'll probably go ahead with Snitker. I won't hate it. He's done a tremendous job, but I'd like to see them bring a few guys in from outside the organization and have a real search. That said, if it's not Snitker, I'd like it to be someone other than the Bud Black type.

[Enscheff]

I think they'll probably go ahead with Snitker. I won't hate it. He's done a tremendous job, but I'd like to see them bring a few guys in from outside the organization and have a real search. That said, if it's not Snitker, I'd like it to be someone other than the Bud Black type.

What do we need to know about Black that makes him a bad candidate?

[depley]

How about the fact he only managed one team with a winning record out of 9?



What do we need to know about Black that makes him a bad candidate?

[depley]

so far Freddie Freeman, Jace Peterson and Ender Inciarte have all come out is support of Snit keeping the job. If the players want him who are we to disagree?

[Enscheff]

How about the fact he only managed one team with a winning record out of 9?

It was the Padres. I'm looking for a little more in depth analysis than that, but thanks for your contribution to the collective knowledge base.

[smootness]

It was the Padres. I'm looking for a little more in depth analysis than that, but thanks for your contribution to the collective knowledge base.

I mean, if a guy has managed 1 winning team in 9 tries, I think the onus is on explaining why he's good.

There may very well be reasons that he is actually a very good manager. But I'm not hiring a guy with that record just because no one can tell me why he's bad. I need some evidence going in the other direction first.

ETA: Technically he actually managed 2 winning teams in his 8 full years as manager. But one of those years, the year he won NL MOY, was actually the worst collapse in Padres history. They went on a 10-game losing streak entering September, went 12-16 in September, and lost a 6.5-game division lead. He never made the postseason there.

ETA2: He's -6 in Pythagorean wins but +15 in WAR wins. So it's tough to gauge, but I haven't seen anything that would suggest he's great.

[Enscheff]

I mean, if a guy has managed 1 winning team in 9 tries, I think the onus is on explaining why he's good.

There may very well be reasons that he is actually a very good manager. But I'm not hiring a guy with that record just because no one can tell me why he's bad. I need some evidence going in the other direction first.

ETA: Technically he actually managed 2 winning teams in his 8 full years as manager. But one of those years, the year he won NL MOY, was actually the worst collapse in Padres history. They went on a 10-game losing streak entering September, went 12-16 in September, and lost a 6.5-game division lead. He never made the postseason there.

That's why I'm asking. I know very little about Bud Black, but when he was fired there was immediate speculation that he was a strong candidate to be the next Braves manager.

Is he a good clubhouse guy like Snitker seems to be? Is he a good tactical mind like Maddon? Or is he just an established manager that would end up being a safe hire?

For what it's worth, I would like to see Dave Martinez given serious consideration. He has served as bench coach to the best manager in the game, who is running the best team in the game about as efficiently as humanly possible. I would like to see more of that "high information" decision making utilized in Atlanta over the low information crap that results in decisions like batting Adonis Garcia in the #2 slot.

[smootness]

That's why I'm asking. I know very little about Bud Black, but when he was fired there was immediate speculation that he was a strong candidate to be the next Braves manager.

Is he a good clubhouse guy like Snitker seems to be? Is he a good tactical mind like Maddon? Or is he just an established manager that would end up being a safe hire?

For what it's worth, I would like to see Dave Martinez given serious consideration. He has served as bench coach to the best manager in the game, who is running the best team in the game about as efficiently as humanly possible. I would like to see more of that "high information" decision making utilized in Atlanta over the low information crap that results in decisions like batting Adonis Garcia in the #2 slot.

If you're looking for someone who's not going to do weird things, Maddon is not your guy. He tinkers like crazy and is very quick to pull pitchers. He's also batted guys like John Jaso (the year he had a sub-.300 OBP) and BJ Upton at the top of his lineup.

He gets a lot of hype as some kind of advanced sabermetric guru, but he's really not. He's good for a team's clubhouse, but his moves are very old-school. He also is negative in both Pythagorean wins and WAR wins in his career. He actually rates as a truly poor manager by the advanced analytics.

[Enscheff]

If you're looking for someone who's not going to do weird things, Maddon is not your guy. He tinkers like crazy and is very quick to pull pitchers. He's also batted guys like John Jaso (the year he had a sub-.300 OBP) and BJ Upton at the top of his lineup.

He gets a lot of hype as some kind of advanced sabermetric guru, but he's really not. He's good for a team's clubhouse, but his moves are very old-school. He also is negative in both Pythagorean wins and WAR wins in his career. He actually rates as a truly poor manager by the advanced analytics.

By the advanced analytics? I am unaware of any metrics used to rate managers.

Or are you asserting we can assign credit for teams over/under performing their expected win values to the manager? Where has that been shown to be a reproducible skill of a manager? Everything I have read attributes performances like the Royals of the last couple years and the Rangers this year to luck and/or a lock down top heavy BP that can win more close games than is normally expected.

[smootness]

By the advanced analytics? I am unaware of any metrics used to rate managers.

Or are you asserting we can assign credit for teams over/under performing their expected win values to the manager? Where has that been shown to be a reproducible skill of a manager? Everything I have read attributes performances like the Royals of the last couple years and the Rangers this year to luck and/or a lock down top heavy BP that can win more close games than is normally expected.

I am asserting that people do this. I wasn't trying to validate it, but it's there, and it's useful information.

If it was all attributable to luck, then you wouldn't see managers consistently exceeding or falling short of their expected wins...yet they do.

[Enscheff]

I am asserting that people do this. I wasn't trying to validate it, but it's there, and it's useful information.

If it was all attributable to luck, then you wouldn't see managers consistently exceeding or falling short of their expected wins...yet they do.

Consistently? Again, where have you seen this analysis done? Or did you do it yourself in your head?

[Braves1976]

That's why I'm asking. I know very little about Bud Black, but when he was fired there was immediate speculation that he was a strong candidate to be the next Braves manager.

Is he a good clubhouse guy like Snitker seems to be? Is he a good tactical mind like Maddon? Or is he just an established manager that would end up being a safe hire?

For what it's worth, I would like to see Dave Martinez given serious consideration. He has served as bench coach to the best manager in the game, who is running the best team in the game about as efficiently as humanly possible. I would like to see more of that "high information" decision making utilized in Atlanta over the low information crap that results in decisions like batting Adonis Garcia in the #2 slot.

There was a study done a few years back that rated Bud Black among the best at bullpen management and also getting more out of relievers for the Padres than these relievers had done previously. I'd certainly agree with those that saw him as good at managing a bullpen as his track record showed that (even though many times he had very little to work with). I know Fredi couldn't do anything like that even with great bullpens. So between them there is a night and day difference IMO.

[smootness]

Consistently? Again, where have you seen this analysis done? Or did you do it yourself in your head?

Huh? They do keep track of both Pythagorean and WAR wins over expected...and there are managers who consistently outperform or underperform expectations.

[Enscheff]

Huh? They do keep track of both Pythagorean and WAR wins over expected...and there are managers who consistently outperform or underperform expectations.

Ok, keeping a running tally of something and performing an analysis to determine if there is a statistical correlation between two things are completely different excercises. Since you don't know the difference I'll take that as you have no idea.

As a general rule, if the article just adds things up and provides a ranking, it likely isn't doing anything with any statistical significance. If they run regression and/or check for correlation and mention an r squared value, it is probably statistically relevant.

Here's an article that shows managers don't "consistently" do anything, meaning there is little correlation. It's the best one I could find with minimal searching:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/statspeakmvn.wordpress.com/2007/12/15/managers-and-the-pythagorean-theorem/amp/?client=safari

And here's one that shows how going over/under the Pythagorean record is pretty random for those that don't understand what "R squared" means:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/3/17/5504652/manager-pythagorean-wins

[smootness]

Ok, keeping a running tally of something and performing an analysis to determine if there is a statistical correlation between two things are completely different excercises. Since you don't know the difference I'll take that as you have no idea.

As a general rule, if the article just adds things up and provides a ranking, it likely isn't doing anything with any statistical significance. If they run regression and/or check for correlation and mention an r squared value, it is probably statistically relevant.

Here's an article that shows managers don't "consistently" do anything, meaning there is little correlation. It's the best one I could find with minimal searching:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/statspeakmvn.wordpress.com/2007/12/15/managers-and-the-pythagorean-theorem/amp/?client=safari

And here's one that shows how going over/under the Pythagorean record is pretty random for those that don't understand what "R squared" means:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/3/17/5504652/manager-pythagorean-wins

Hahaha I know what regression analysis and r-squared are, you tool. I didn't know that analysis had been done.

I never implied win expectancies were a great tool, and it looks like perhaps they are not real useful at all. It's interesting that neither of those studies looked at win expectancy according to WAR.

But the first study assumes experience is a good thing and that managers who manager for longer will manage more good teams, thus manage more teams who win 1-run games, etc. But if that's the case, why is a guy like Maddox who's been around and managed good teams so low, especially in WAR win expectancy? It's interesting to me, and neither of those articles convinced me it means nothing.

As usual, your input is a simple regurgitation of something you've read about things that you think sound intelligent like regression and r-squared with little actual thinking for yourself.

[bravesfanforlife88]

According to MLBTraderumors, we have already interviewed Bo Porter, TP, Eddie Perez, and Snitker for the managers job next season. Of the 4, the Braves came away impressed with TP....Braves still plan to interview a few candidates from outside the organization including Don Wakamatsu, Boston's bench coach, Bud Black. and Ron Gardenhire

[GovClintonTyree]

Consistently? Again, where have you seen this analysis done? Or did you do it yourself in your head?

My God, you're a prick.

[thewupk]

According to MLBTraderumors, we have already interviewed Bo Porter, TP, Eddie Perez, and Snitker for the managers job next season. Of the 4, the Braves came away impressed with TP....Braves still plan to interview a few candidates from outside the organization including Don Wakamatsu, Boston's bench coach, Bud Black. and Ron Gardenhire

god....I hope the Braves go external and for the most part clean house with the coaching staff.

[emk418]

The one guy that better not get the job is TP. I was really impressed with Snit...but I want to do our due diligence and meet with a bunch of candidates outside the organization.