nsacpi
09-01-2013, 08:18 PM
The way I classify minor league pitching talent is a bit different than position players. It is based on a few observations.
First, most teams put their more talented pitchers into the rotation and try to develop them that way. This leads me to generally rate guys who are starting for their minor league teams ahead of guys are relieving. Many pitchers in major league bullpens were starters in the minors. Of course there are exceptions, such as Kimbrel. There is one guy currently relieving in the minors who might be an exception of that type, Shae Simmons.
Second, I give a fair amount of weight to platoon splits. If a pitcher has significant splits, it suggests to me that he will need to be moved to the bullpen at some point in order to minimize the damage that opposite-handed batters will do against him. This leads me to classify starters into two groups. Those effective enough against opposite-handed hitters to have a good chance to remain starters in the majors and those likely to get moved to the pen.
With that as a preamble here is my take on our pitching talent. We start with a foundation of three young guys already in the majors who will be under team control for 5 or 6 more years: Teheran, Wood and Avilan. That's a great foundation.
Among the guys in the minors, I think there are six who are potential major league starters, a number of starters with a good chance to make it to the majors as relievers, and some promising guys who are pitching as relievers in the minors.
Potential major league starters: Sims, Cabrera, Graham, Hursh, Parsons, Thomas. I list them in order of upside potential. I'm sure the inclusion of the last two will raise some eyebrows, but they both had outstanding seasons and showed an ability to be effective against opposite-handed hitters. Graham's shoulder injury does raise the question of whether it might be best to move him to the pen, but I think the Braves will give him one more year to develop further as a starter.
Starters who project more as relievers or 5th starters in the majors: Martin, Gilmartin, Hale, Northcraft, Schlosser. Note that there is only one lefty on this list.
Minor league relievers with a decent chance to make it to the majors: Simmons, Harper, Jaime, Cornely, Lamm, Hyatt, Carlos Perez. Note there is also only one lefty on this list.
Unlike with the hitters, I've left off minor league pitchers who have mainly pitched in the Rookie Leagues this past season. There are a group of college pitchers we just drafted who have shown promise, but we need to see then in full-season leagues to get a real handle on their potential. The same could be said of the high school and international pitchers who have yet to pitch in full-season leagues.
Overview: We have sufficient young pitching depth imo to allow us to avoid getting tangled up in long-term contracts to pitchers. This is important as it will free up money for the guys who should be our main priority (Heyward, Freeman, Justin Upton and a few years down the line Simmons). I think we are a bit short in terms of lefties, but as we saw with Scott Downs at this year's trade deadline, you can usually find some decent ones at reasonable prices on the trade market.
First, most teams put their more talented pitchers into the rotation and try to develop them that way. This leads me to generally rate guys who are starting for their minor league teams ahead of guys are relieving. Many pitchers in major league bullpens were starters in the minors. Of course there are exceptions, such as Kimbrel. There is one guy currently relieving in the minors who might be an exception of that type, Shae Simmons.
Second, I give a fair amount of weight to platoon splits. If a pitcher has significant splits, it suggests to me that he will need to be moved to the bullpen at some point in order to minimize the damage that opposite-handed batters will do against him. This leads me to classify starters into two groups. Those effective enough against opposite-handed hitters to have a good chance to remain starters in the majors and those likely to get moved to the pen.
With that as a preamble here is my take on our pitching talent. We start with a foundation of three young guys already in the majors who will be under team control for 5 or 6 more years: Teheran, Wood and Avilan. That's a great foundation.
Among the guys in the minors, I think there are six who are potential major league starters, a number of starters with a good chance to make it to the majors as relievers, and some promising guys who are pitching as relievers in the minors.
Potential major league starters: Sims, Cabrera, Graham, Hursh, Parsons, Thomas. I list them in order of upside potential. I'm sure the inclusion of the last two will raise some eyebrows, but they both had outstanding seasons and showed an ability to be effective against opposite-handed hitters. Graham's shoulder injury does raise the question of whether it might be best to move him to the pen, but I think the Braves will give him one more year to develop further as a starter.
Starters who project more as relievers or 5th starters in the majors: Martin, Gilmartin, Hale, Northcraft, Schlosser. Note that there is only one lefty on this list.
Minor league relievers with a decent chance to make it to the majors: Simmons, Harper, Jaime, Cornely, Lamm, Hyatt, Carlos Perez. Note there is also only one lefty on this list.
Unlike with the hitters, I've left off minor league pitchers who have mainly pitched in the Rookie Leagues this past season. There are a group of college pitchers we just drafted who have shown promise, but we need to see then in full-season leagues to get a real handle on their potential. The same could be said of the high school and international pitchers who have yet to pitch in full-season leagues.
Overview: We have sufficient young pitching depth imo to allow us to avoid getting tangled up in long-term contracts to pitchers. This is important as it will free up money for the guys who should be our main priority (Heyward, Freeman, Justin Upton and a few years down the line Simmons). I think we are a bit short in terms of lefties, but as we saw with Scott Downs at this year's trade deadline, you can usually find some decent ones at reasonable prices on the trade market.