Some Roster Construction Thoughts

[nsacpi]

During the past season, we went through long stretches with just one lefty in the pen and no real lefty pinch hitter. In a rebuilding season, these small things don't matter much. But if we want to be competitive or semi-competitive in 2017, the front office will have to pay a bit more attention to these details.

Let's start with pitching. When it comes to starting pitching, I don't see much need for a particular mix of lefties and righties. If you make the post-season, it might come into play if you face teams whose lineups are stacked in a particular direction. But during the regular season it is usually a wash. There is a case, however, for making sure the pen complements the starters. If you have mostly right-handed starters, there is a stronger case for a third lefty in the pen.

As things currently stand, it appears likely we will have four or five right handed starters. Our bullpen candidates also lean strongly righty with Viz, Johnson, Cabrera, Simmons, Winkler, Ramirez and Withrow in the mix. On the lefty side there is Krol and Paco Rodriguez. Minty Hippo was very good in AA last year and could be a lefty option as well, though it makes sense to give him some time in AAA. I'm ok with starting the season with five righties and Krol and Rodriguez in the pen. But I think there will be a need for another lefty bullpen arm at some point in the season.

Moving on to the lineup, I think we have fairly good balance--three lefty hitters (Inciarte, Freeman, Muk), three righties (Kemp, Garcia, Swanson), one platoon (catcher) and one switch hitter (I'm assuming Albies will be our second baseman for most of the season even if he starts the year in AAA).

Moving on to the bench, I think there is a clear need for a couple decent bats who can be our primary pinch hitters from the left and right side. We could do a lot worse than bringing back old friends Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur. KJ has the added virtue of positional versatility and providing insurance at our position of greatest weakness and uncertainty (third base). And Francoeur would allow us to rest Muk now and then against tough lefties. The remaining bench players would be Jace and Mallex. Jace might be our opening day second baseman but I don't see that continuing all season. I think his ideal role is super utility player.

[Chico]

I believe we'll sign a lefty reliever like a Cecil or Dunn. If not we'll acquire one via a trade. I think we go in to the season with hopes that Paco and Minter force our hand and we have Kroll and another lefty to trade in July. The value of Cervenka and Dario shows it's good to have a lefty reliever or two to peddle in July.

I think we could add another righty veteran reliever for the same reason. It shows the fan base we're trying to win. It gives the kids a little more seasoning. It gives us a veteran trade chip.

One of the two or three starters we acquire will be lefty. I think the hope is Newcomb and eventually Fried are our two lefties for a couple of seasons, but we'll have to acquire at least one lefty placeholder or two if we decide to trade Fried.

[depley]

I am not sure what Castro you are referring to I assume you mean Garcia among the 3 righties.

[nsacpi]

I am not sure what Castro you are referring to I assume you mean Garcia among the 3 righties.

Yes. For some reason (maybe because he is from Cuba) I always want to call him Castro.

[Horsehide Harry]

I'm sure there will be many changes as the offseason goes but I thought I would start looking.

I think the signing of Johnson means that there are likely too many RH relief pitchers and one will get traded (at least).
I like: Vizcaino to the Reds for C Tyler Stephenson and OF Aristedes Aquino

I like a trade with ChiSox for Shields maybe: RHP Shields and 3B Frazier for 3B Garcia, RHP Max Povse and SS Anfernee Seymore

I like a trade with Detroit for RHP Zimmerman and RHP Sanchez for CF M Smith

I like a trade with the Yankees: C McCann and RF Frazier for RF Markakis, RHP John Gant and LHP Newcomb

Sign LHP Michael Dunn, RF Carlos Beltran (if no QO), LH Kelly Johnson, RH Jeff Francouer

Rotation: Teheran, Zimmerman, Shields, Folty, Sanchez/Wisler

Pen: CL Johnson, LHP Krol, RHP Withrow, LHP Dunn, RHP Cabrera, RHP Roe, RHP Ramirez/Simmons or LHP Rodriguez

Lineup:

CF Inciarte
SS Swanson
1B Freeman
LF Kemp
RF Beltran
3B Frazier
C McCann/Flowers
2B Peterson/Albies

Trade for SP buys some time for young prospects but outside of Zimmerman, not long term. Very powerful team but with movable parts should that become desireable and necessary.

[nsacpi]

Considering the contracts of Zimmerman and Sanchez, Mallex would be an overpay for those two. I would offer them Muk instead for those two. I also think McCann has little or no surplus value given his contract. I would offer to take on the whole contract for a second tier prospect. The idea is not to give up any young talent like Mallex.

[zbhargrove]

I like the idea of picking up Frazier with Shields

[UNCBlue012]

I like the idea of picking up Frazier with Shields as do I, but they'll ask for more than what we'd be giving in that scenario. Not saying that's not enough, but they go high.

[Carp]

Pass on Shields unless the Sox are paying close to half the contract AND taking on Markakis. Shields is old and in major decline. If we're wanting to take on a salary dump, why not take on Kennedy, who's actually a good pitcher?

[nsacpi]

Kennedy's contract is problematic in light of the opt out.

I think it will be a two-step approach with respect to the rotation. Step 1 will be to sign a couple mid-rotation guys this off-season (my picks are Cashner and de la Rosa). Step 2 will involve a trade for an upper level starter. Could happen mid-season or next off-season.

[zbhargrove]

Pass on Shields unless the Sox are paying close to half the contract AND taking on Markakis. Shields is old and in major decline. If we're wanting to take on a salary dump, why not take on Kennedy, who's actually a good pitcher?

You take Shields to get Frazier. Shields would still be serviceable as a mid or end of rotation pitcher.

[zbhargrove]

I think we should sign Greg Holland... could be a huge bargain

[emk418]

I think we should sign Greg Holland... could be a huge bargain

This. He's not going to be cheap but we 100% should go hard after Holland

[Chico]

Kennedy's contract is problematic in light of the opt out.

I think it will be a two-step approach with respect to the rotation. Step 1 will be to sign a couple mid-rotation guys this off-season (my picks are Cashner and de la Rosa). Step 2 will involve a trade for an upper level starter. Could happen mid-season or next off-season.

I think the ideal situation would be for him to opt out after a season and collect a pick.

[emk418]

I'd like to look into Hunter Dozier for 3B. Sounds like he may be available

[mfree80]

I'd like to look into Hunter Dozier for 3B. Sounds like he may be available

This is interesting. I had heard he would likely not be available. I would be interested in your source for this...

[zbhargrove]

You take Shields to get Frazier. Shields would still be serviceable as a mid or end of rotation pitcher.
Actually looking at the stats it surprised me how ordinary Frazier has been at the plate outside of just power. A little bit of speed but a .750 - .800 OPS player. Not sure a Garcia platoon would be much worse

[rico43]

Again, a friendly reminder that saying you "heard" something is worthless unless you can provide a link or a source. If it's your own speculation, say so.

[Russ2dollas]

Why not just bring up Minter? He's 23 and over a year from TJ. He's killing kids. He's a reliever so who knows how long he'll last. He throws with his LH.

Wildcard is Paco....seems like his health is not good b/c he was listed as a potential non-tender guy by Bowman (IIRC).

But Krol plus Minter should be ok from the left side. I'm not sure we need to throw money or prospects at another LH reliever.

I would like to have a LH starter if we can. I think it's good to give teams another look. But I'd prefer to get the best pitcher I can than the best LH. But if I have two I think are equal I'd go for the lefty.

[nsacpi]

I'm not sure we need to throw money or prospects at another LH reliever.



My observation in the opening post was that it was likely we would need to acquire a LH reliever at some point in the season. This reflects the usual attrition you see during the season. But I agree we don't have to pursue one at this point. We don't have to until the need materializes. Maybe the health and effectiveness of the group we already have will be better than the actuarial odds.

[bravesfanMatt]

Why not just bring up Minter? He's 23 and over a year from TJ. He's killing kids. He's a reliever so who knows how long he'll last. He throws with his LH.

Wildcard is Paco....seems like his health is not good b/c he was listed as a potential non-tender guy by Bowman (IIRC).

But Krol plus Minter should be ok from the left side. I'm not sure we need to throw money or prospects at another LH reliever.

I would like to have a LH starter if we can. I think it's good to give teams another look. But I'd prefer to get the best pitcher I can than the best LH. But if I have two I think are equal I'd go for the lefty.


Not saying this will happen, but I have read in different places that Minter might want to start again. I am curious if he will go that route or not. It would slow his accent to the bigs, but increase his value as a prospect.

[Chico]

We may not need to sign a lefty reliever, but why not. We have the money to spend and it's great to have a lefty reliever to trade come July. It's just another way of buying a prospect.

[zbhargrove]

Since he possibly won't receive a QO now... I'd like to see Ramos signed as he will probably be much cheaper now that he won't be ready at the beginning of the season. I'd rather have him than McCann.

[Chico]

Since he possibly won't receive a QO now... I'd like to see Ramos signed as he will probably be much cheaper now that he won't be ready at the beginning of the season. I'd rather have him than McCann.

H's probably going to an AL team. This is his 2nd torn ACL on the same knee. He may never catch regularly again.

[Carp]

You take Shields to get Frazier. Shields would still be serviceable as a mid or end of rotation pitcher.

Frazier is not that good either. And is a rental

[zbhargrove]

Frazier is not that good either. And is a rental

Yes, I was clear in agreeing with that in my very next post...

[zbhargrove]

The Cubs declined Jason Hammel's club option. I'd definitely be interested at the right money and the right # of years

[Carp]

Yes, I was clear in agreeing with that in my very next post...

I see that now. My bad.

[clvclv]

Not the direction anyone expects the brass to go, but if there were any sense that Wisler and Folty could be counted on next season and things could be worked out (including Coppy being willing to give up next year's second-rounder) some points made on Inside Pitch (on XM) would be quite interesting...

1.) Trade Ellis and Mader (non-core prospects) for Santana (not mentioned by them, but we've kicked Santana around for some time)

2.) Trade Blair for Mac if the Yankees pay $7 million per (they seem to think that Cashman will eventually cave when it's obvious that everyone's going to call his bluff and just try to move his contract)

3.) Sign Justin Turner for 4/$64 million (and give up the pick)

4.) Trade Mallex, Ruiz, and Sims to Tampa for Smyly (also my mention - not something they touched on)



CF- Inciarte, SS- Swanson, 1B- Freeman, LF- Kemp, C- Mac, 3B- Turner, RF- Markakis, 2B- Peterson (Albies)

Teheran, Santana, Smyly, Folty, Wisler (with Newcomb, Whalen, Jenkins, and possibly Weigel in Gwinnett by midseason)



Salaries would be $121,450,000 before renewals.


Definitely a pipe dream but that team would be capable of making some noise, and you'd still have all the young guns we've collected (Newcomb, Fried, Allard, Toussaint, Soroka, Anderson, Wentz, and Muller) potentially ready by the time Santana and Smyly left.

[Enscheff]

While I agree that trading one of Mallex/Inciarte is the Braves only real hope of landing a SP with some impact potential, I don't think the Rays are a realistic trade partner because they already have Kiermaier (pre-arb) in CF. Mallex and Inciarte are maximized in CF, and the Rays won't be playing either in CF.

The teams I have read are potentially looking for a CFer are the Mets, Rangers, Cubs, Astros, Cardinals and A's. Since the Cardinals don't really have anything interesting to trade to the Braves, I don't see them as likely. The Rangers will likely bring back one of Desmond or Gomez for CF. I don't think it is likely the Mets and Braves make a trade of that significance.

That leaves the Cubs, Astros and A's as the most likely teams that would want Mallex or Inciarte. We already know the Cubs have been interested from the day the Braves acquired Inciarte, and Baez would fit nicely at 3B. The Astros have tons of prospects the Braves could covet. The A's could send someone like Manaea or Barreto in exchange for Inciarte, or a lesser guy like Chapman for Mallex.

[clvclv]

Adjusted the earlier pipe dream slightly...

https://whensidslidcronies.wordpress.com/2016/11/07/could-the-braves-be-competitive-in-2017-and-2018-without-giving-up-core-pieces/

[Heyward]

While I agree that trading one of Mallex/Inciarte is the Braves only real hope of landing a SP with some impact potential, I don't think the Rays are a realistic trade partner because they already have Kiermaier (pre-arb) in CF. Mallex and Inciarte are maximized in CF, and the Rays won't be playing either in CF.

The teams I have read are potentially looking for a CFer are the Mets, Rangers, Cubs, Astros, Cardinals and A's. Since the Cardinals don't really have anything interesting to trade to the Braves, I don't see them as likely. The Rangers will likely bring back one of Desmond or Gomez for CF. I don't think it is likely the Mets and Braves make a trade of that significance.

That leaves the Cubs, Astros and A's as the most likely teams that would want Mallex or Inciarte. We already know the Cubs have been interested from the day the Braves acquired Inciarte, and Baez would fit nicely at 3B. The Astros have tons of prospects the Braves could covet. The A's could send someone like Manaea or Barreto in exchange for Inciarte, or a lesser guy like Chapman for Mallex.

Dont see the Cubs moving Baez especially with Zobrist getting older.

Big reason Cubs won the WS was defense. Baez, Russell, and Bryant from 2nd to SS to 3B is insane the amount of field they cover in the infield. Rizzo as well.

[rico43]

I would talk at length with the A's. Smells like desperation all the way from the coast. Any team that would trade Addison Russell is someone you want to deal with.