Braves acquire Alex Jackson from SEA for Whalen and Povse

[dak]

803418540959145984

[SJ24]

Jackson is a former 1st rounder.

Mariners number 6 prospect.

This is a heist.

[dak]

Scrambling to read up on Jackson, but this looks pretty promising. This are the exact types of prospects I wanted to see the Braves trade, just wasn't expecting it to be for another prospect.

[smootness]

Shwiiiiiiing.

This is exactly the kind of deal we need to be making. Love it.

[nsacpi]

Jackson is not really a prospect at this point.

[msstate7]

In 333 ABs, he k'd 103 times last year... 30.9%

[Enscheff]

Odd trade. The Braves essentially traded a couple FV 45 arms for another lottery ticket bat similar to Demritte.

The Braves must not have thought very highly of Povse. They traded him for an OF prospect who's value has cratered.

[The Chosen One]

Goodness, is Seattle stepping up to the plate since we no longer have Dave Stewart to rob?

[Freshmaker]

I'm sure he's happy to be out of Clinton

[chop2chip]

Jackson is not really a prospect at this point.

Not a top prospect, but he certainly has some shine left.

[NYCBrave]

Well, as someone who's followed Alex Jackson a bit, the Mariners were probably looking to get what they could for him, since he's been a bit of a bust. He was rated I believe one of the top hitters coming out of the 2014 draft, but hasn't lived up to expectations. That said, he's only 20 and played in Hi-A Ball last year. His 2015 season was abysmal, but 2016 was a bit better, but the K rate is very troubling. If, and that's a big if, he puts it all together, he could be a star. That's looking like a long shot though at this point.

What do Whalen and Povse project to turn into?

[Hudson2]

Wow. Coppy is a freakin stud. This is a definite win for us. Jackson is the OF version of Demeritte. He was almost a top 100 prospect to start this year. Just a small adjustment could skyrocket this kid.

[Carp]

I like Whalen more than most. But honestly, the odds of him or Povse becoming more than back of the rotation type of pitchers seems slim.


While this was good value, this also seems like a move made to help clear the rotation logjam in the minors, as well as clearing up a 40 man spot.

Jackson has a good amount of potential, but is obviously a long way off. Hopefully we can help him make some adjustments and help him turn the corner as a prospect.

[dak]

Odd trade. The Braves essentially traded a couple FV 45 arms for another lottery ticket bat similar to Demritte.

This seems like a pretty good synopsis from what I've read on Jackson. Bust probably seems even higher than Demeritte. A little uneasy about Jackson, but the Braves are in better position than almost anyone in the league to take an upside gamble like this.

[CyYoung31]

Anyone who has an issue with this trade can GTFO.

[Hudson2]

Jackson is not really a prospect at this point.

He's 20 going on 21 in high A. How is he not a prospect??

[Bravehog]

I wouldn't be surprised to see John Hart put Jackson back behind the plate. He was an analyst for MLB Network during that draft and he believed in Jacksons ability behind the plate. Thought Seattle moved him to OF to fast track him and it's not working out. I love the move. We need bats. Whalen and Povse don't excite. Jackson does.

[Horsehide Harry]

Jackson probably becomes the second best legitimate OF prospect in the Braves minors behind Acuna. I guess an argument could be made for Peterson, but I would slot Jackson ahead of him based on potential.

His 2015 started bad when the M's jumped him to full season ball too early, then demoted him, he improved, then was injured.

His 2016 was better, but filled with adjustments that should have been made in 2015.

Whalen isn't much of a loss. Povse will be the difference between a win or not on the trade. Plus, the Braves supposedly get a PTN later (maybe a 2016 draftee?)

I have no problems with the trade and think it might be a big win.

[Knucksie]

This part caught my eye:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/atlanta-braves


ovse may be the real get here for the M’s. The 23-year-old is a consistent strike thrower despite his 6’8 frame. Working last year at the High-A and Double-A levels, he ran up 158 innings of 3.36 ERA pitching with 7.9 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9 — though his strikeout numbers drooped following his promotion.

Does anybody know much about this kid?

[Deester11]

Watched Povse quite a bit. Good arm, sustainable velo but down the list of prospects who I would say are elite. That said,he and Whalen are good solid pieces. Jackson was considered a top 3 power prospect in the draft. Swing and miss for sure. Interesting that on draft night, John Hart spoke highly of him. I love this trade although I think Povse and Whalen are solid.

[smootness]

Jackson is not really a prospect at this point.

Uh, what?

[dak]

Huh?

803424983766732800

[smootness]

Odd trade. The Braves essentially traded a couple FV 45 arms for another lottery ticket bat similar to Demritte.

The Braves must not have thought very highly of Povse. They traded him for an OF prospect who's value has cratered.

How is this odd? Whalen and Povse are filler arms with little future in our system. We traded them at their peak for a guy with a big ceiling and potentially legit bat whose value is at its lowest. That's darn near the perfect trade.

[Deester11]

How is this odd? Whalen and Povse are filler arms with little future in our system. We traded them at their peak for a guy with a big ceiling and potentially legit bat whose value is at its lowest. That's darn near the perfect trade.
I agree with Smoot? The world axis is surely teetering....

[nsacpi]

Not a top prospect, but he certainly has some shine left.

imo Povse is a better prospect than Jackson at this point

[smootness]

imo Povse is a better prospect than Jackson at this point

You're crazy.

[CyYoung31]

imo Povse is a better prospect than Jackson at this point

Please.

[Hudson2]

Huh?

803424983766732800

Hart said during that draft that he thought Jackson should be at C. This could really turn out interesting if they swap him to C.

[Deester11]

imo Povse is a better prospect than Jackson at this point
Definitely disagree. We've got 20 Povse's in the system, not many power bats...YET.

[Carp]

imo Povse is a better prospect than Jackson at this point

Jackson had a decent year at age 20 in A ball and has massive potential. No way Povse is a better prospect.

[cajunrevenge]

Jackson seems a lot like Braxton Davidson. Way too many k's but draws a lot of walks with a solid amount of power. They arent hitting great overall but are still around league average. They are both only 20 years old so theres plenty of time for the light to come on. Being first round picks they have serious upside if it does. With prospects the odds are always against you. All you can do is hedge your bets with as many lottery tickets. Sometimes you win nothing. Sometimes you win your money back. Sometimes you win 4$, but every now and then you hit the jackpot. Cant win if you dont play.



edit - I guess he is still young enough to convert to catching. If it doesnt hurt his bat he would be a significantly better prospect as a catcher.

[chop2chip]

imo Povse is a better prospect than Jackson at this point

I like the trade for Seattle. But where do you put Povse and Whalen? Neither of them really fit into our long term rotation plans and are behind 10 other minor pitchers.

[Deester11]

Jackson seems a lot like Braxton Davidson. Way too many k's but draws a lot of walks with a solid amount of power. They arent hitting great overall but are still around league average. They are both only 20 years old so theres plenty of time for the light to come on. Being first round picks they have serious upside if it does. With prospects the odds are always against you. All you can do is hedge your bets with as many lottery tickets. Sometimes you win nothing. Sometimes you win your money back. Sometimes you win 4$, but every now and then you hit the jackpot. Cant win if you dont play.
Wow Cajun.....very succinct post. Inconceivable....

[Enscheff]

How is this odd? Whalen and Povse are filler arms with little future in our system. We traded them at their peak for a guy with a big ceiling and potentially legit bat whose value is at its lowest. That's darn near the perfect trade.

Odd doesn't mean bad, it means odd. Just like the SRod signing. Odd.

Yes, both are likely 5th starter or BP arms, but they have some marginal value. The Braves just used that value, as small as it may be, for another lottery ticket bat similar to TD except without the defensive upside.

This is probably a trade that never amounts to much for either team. Prospect for prospect trades are exceedingly rare, and this is probably why they almost never happen. Clearly someone in the Braves scouting department still had a boner for Jackson (or maybe Hart himself), and the M's were looking for some long term rotation depth.

[dak]

I'm curious about the PTBNL that the Braves are also getting. Most likely inconsequential, but kind of odd to have a PTBNL in a trade this time of year.

[Horsehide Harry]

Don't know much about Clinton but from the pitching numbers it looks as if it must be an extreme pitchers park.

As for the comparison with Davidson, I think Jackson has shown mush more at this point, which still isn't saying a ton.

[Horsehide Harry]

I'm curious about the PTBNL that the Braves are also getting. Most likely inconsequential, but kind of odd to have a PTBNL in a trade this time of year.

Could it be from the 2016 Draft? At one time, draftees could not change hands until a certain amount of time had passed. Not sure what the rule is now...

[clvclv]

I like the trade for Seattle. But where do you put Povse and Whalen? Neither of them really fit into our long term rotation plans and are behind 10 other minor pitchers.

All depends on what you're trying to build and how much weight you want to put on power POTENTIAL. Everybody that knocks Demeritte points out the swing-and-miss - and that's understandable. Many also point out that one main goal is to develop WAVES of prospects for sustainable success. Tough to have both inexpensively - particularly given the attrition and injury rates for Pitchers.

If Povse and Whalen develop into capable #4 and #5 SPs soon, suddenly Wisler and Blair become "expendable" for a bat that's more proven than Jackson. Obviously none of these guys are "sure things", but Povse and Whalen have experienced more success at more advanced levels. There are lots of things yet to be determined about any of the three of them before their final stories can be written, but given the scarcity of inexpensive SPs available these days it's awfully tough to instantly call this a "slam-dunk" fleecing IMO. Like everyone else, I love Jackson's upside - especially if the Braves can make him a Catcher - but someone with that kind of K-Rate when seeing mainly fastballs is far from a "steal".

Actually could signal that the brass is comfortable enough with Wisler, Blair, and some of our non-premium arms that they're OK with dealing quantity for wildcards - completely the opposite of Wren's tenure - which can be both quite exciting as well as questionable in the long run. Particularly when they've said they want to get back to "The Braves' Way" of pitching over everything else.

[GovClintonTyree]

Hart said during that draft that he thought Jackson should be at C. This could really turn out interesting if they swap him to C.

If this is the plan, the deal got a whole lot more interesting.

DiPoto has shown what his supporters would say is a bold streak in his deals. Others would call him impatient. He's dealt players who will contribute in their new homes, notably Carson Smith, Mike Montgomery, Mark Trumbo, now Ketel Marie and Taijuan Walker. Once he decides he doesn't want to wait on a guy, they're gone.

So now he's decided to bolster his pitching with middling arms at the cost of giving up on a former #1 prematurely. Jackson wasn't making enough contact, but he was making improvements after he moved up the ladder and it wouldn't be a surprise to see that continue.

I did not know about his catcher past, but that sure makes him attractive to the Braves and interesting to me.

[Enscheff]

Could it be from the 2016 Draft? At one time, draftees could not change hands until a certain amount of time had passed. Not sure what the rule is now...

Recently drafted players can be traded the day after the World Series. It is known as the "Trea Turner Rule":

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2015/05/01/mlb-union-amend-the-trea-turner-rule/?0p19G=c

[dak]

John Manuel puts Jackson in the 18 - 20 range on the Braves prospect list. Seems about right.

[Enscheff]

If this is the plan, the deal got a whole lot more interesting.

DiPoto has shown what his supporters would say is a bold streak in his deals. Others would call him impatient. He's dealt players who will contribute in their new homes, notably Carson Smith, Mike Montgomery, Mark Trumbo, now Ketel Marie and Taijuan Walker. Once he decides he doesn't want to wait on a guy, they're gone.

So now he's decided to bolster his pitching with middling arms at the cost of giving up on a former #1 prematurely. Jackson wasn't making enough contact, but he was making improvements after he moved up the ladder and it wouldn't be a surprise to see that continue.

I did not know about his catcher past, but that sure makes him attractive to the Braves and interesting to me.

Here is what I found on him prior to the 2014 draft, when he was rated the #1 catcher in the class:

http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=288713

To quote:

"Huge power, very good defensive catcher, Also play OF well. Has all the tools, outstanding at PG Nat. Games and Area Codes. Outstanding at PG National. PG All American"

[nsacpi]

Jackson seems a lot like Braxton Davidson. Way too many k's but draws a lot of walks with a solid amount of power. They arent hitting great overall but are still around league average. They are both only 20 years old so theres plenty of time for the light to come on. Being first round picks they have serious upside if it does. With prospects the odds are always against you. All you can do is hedge your bets with as many lottery tickets. Sometimes you win nothing. Sometimes you win your money back. Sometimes you win 4$, but every now and then you hit the jackpot. Cant win if you dont play.



edit - I guess he is still young enough to convert to catching. If it doesnt hurt his bat he would be a significantly better prospect as a catcher.

Davidson and Jackson were both drafted in 2014. Davidson is 6 months younger. Davidson put up an OPS of .704 this past season in High A. Jackson put up an OPS of .740 in Low A.

[dak]

Jackson has obviously not performed to expectations in MiLB yet, but had hardly been a disaster. In his age 20 season in the Midwest League, he put up a 120 wRC+. That put him 30th out of 113 players with at least 300 PAs. Median age for the league is 21. Let's hope he can build on that . . . and is a solid Catcher.

[Julio3000]

How is this odd? Whalen and Povse are filler arms with little future in our system. We traded them at their peak for a guy with a big ceiling and potentially legit bat whose value is at its lowest. That's darn near the perfect trade.

Well said.

[Millwood1Hitter]

Listen here to Hart on draft day, he loved the kid and his arm. Said he thinks he'd be a good catcher, projects to be a 25-30 hr type hitter. Said he was the best power positional player in the draft and probably would be moved to the OF to fast track his bat to the majors.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8oBbcfNveks

Guys favorite player was Pudge Rodriguez.

Don't think there's any doubt what the Braves envision here. We traded to back of the rotation type arms for a big time talent at a position of need (whether that's catcher or outfielder).....good job Coppy!

Did I say I think the Braves move him to catcher?

[thethe]

Front office has navigated this rebuild incredibly well.

Coppy has turned out to be a fantastic GM.

[thethe]

I wouldn't be surprised to see John Hart put Jackson back behind the plate. He was an analyst for MLB Network during that draft and he believed in Jacksons ability behind the plate. Thought Seattle moved him to OF to fast track him and it's not working out. I love the move. We need bats. Whalen and Povse don't excite. Jackson does.

Well said.

[mqt]

Ultimately I don't see much chance of us lamenting the day we let Povse and Whalen go, but we could conceivably celebrate the day we got Jackson. There's a whole lot of risk in Jackson's bat, but when the price is two pitchers that I wouldn't rate in our top 10 pitching prospects, I think it's a worthwhile one.

[striker42]

I love the willingness of our front office to swap prospects for prospects. We have tremendous pitching depth but need minor league hitters. Makes all the sense in the world to make a swap like this.

[thethe]

Kyle Tait ‏@HearKyleTait 1h1 hour ago
#Braves first pick in 2014 draft was 32nd. Now they have Jackson (6th, Mariners), Newcomb (15th, Angels), Toussaint (16th, DBacks), by trade

[Hudson2]

He's super athletic so moving back to catcher shouldn't be a big deal. This trade could be huge for us. He was turning it around his first season before getting hurt. So I'm not worried about his numbers last year. Funny how we could have found our future catcher for 2 pitchers that were never gonna matter here.

[zbhargrove]

Maybe the PTBNL is Kyle Lewis ;) trollolololol

[emk418]

You make this trade any day of the week if you're the Braves. Povse could be a nice pitcher but he's a depth guy. Whalen too. We're desperate for long term power hitters. Obviously Jackson comes with risks and has struggled as a pro but too early to give up on him. He's absolutely worth a shot

[bravesfanMatt]

Won't complain about this trade but I think both Povse and Whalen will be in the bigs. I really like Povse. He was a big kid who threw hard and threw strikes. Hate to lose him. Hope this works out.

Edit**. And hopefully the Hart boner for this kid isn't like the last boner the FO had for a guy out west.

[Enscheff]

John Manuel puts Jackson in the 18 - 20 range on the Braves prospect list. Seems about right.

MLB.com just slotted him in at 13, between Muller and Riley.

[GovClintonTyree]

Here is what I found on him prior to the 2014 draft, when he was rated the #1 catcher in the class:

http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=288713

To quote:

"Yuge power, very good defensive catcher, Also play OF well. Has all the tools, outstanding at PG Nat. Games and Area Codes. Outstanding at PG National. PG All American"

Fixed

[GovClintonTyree]

He's super athletic so moving back to catcher shouldn't be a big deal. This trade could be huge for us. He was turning it around his first season before getting hurt. So I'm not worried about his numbers last year. Funny how we could have found our future catcher for 2 pitchers that were never gonna matter here.

He kind of profiles just like Zunino, who's a year earlier, who has everything you could possibly want in a catcher except an inability to lay off sliders on the outside corner. Maybe they moved him to right because they thought he'd be blocked by Zunino.

Oh, and because Jack Z had a deep, abiding love for RH power hitters who strike out a bunch.

[Oklahomabrave]

Good trade. I like the upside plays. That's my favorite key difference between the regime and Wren.

[Hudson2]

He kind of profiles just like Zunino, who's a year earlier, who has everything you could possibly want in a catcher except an inability to lay off sliders on the outside corner. Maybe they moved him to right because they thought he'd be blocked by Zunino.

Oh, and because Jack Z had a deep, abiding love for RH power hitters who strike out a bunch.

I'd be perfectly happy with a possible 20 homer C who strikes out a lot but has good defense. But you may be right about their thinking he could be blocked and moved him to fast track him. With us we can slow him down and give him time to develop.

[gilesfan]

The shine has worn off on him and he may never amount to anything, but the trade makes a ton of sense. Lot of power and just hope he figures how swing mechanically (too long). I would move him back to catcher where he's not asked to hit as much, but talk is that he's too big and stiff now to play catcher.

High upside/low chance of getting there is fine for 2 fringe pitchers in a crowded 40 man roster.

[drewdat]

Maybe the PTBNL is to give us time to shuffle the 40-man roster? Not really sure why else they wouldn't announce a player or money or future considerations.

[Enscheff]

Maybe the PTBNL is to give us time to shuffle the 40-man roster? Not really sure why else they wouldn't announce a player or money or future considerations.

Usually they want to scout a few players a bit longer before they decide which one they want.

[rico43]

The shine has worn off on him and he may never amount to anything, but the trade makes a ton of sense. Lot of power and just hope he figures how swing mechanically (too long). I would move him back to catcher where he's not asked to hit as much, but talk is that he's too big and stiff now to play catcher.

High upside/low chance of getting there is fine for 2 fringe pitchers in a crowded 40 man roster.

"talk is"? Would kinda like a source or link to a very specific comment like this. Kid is still only 21 and has only played the outfield as a pro.

[rico43]

I was thinking Whelan was on 40-man, but that was not the case. They still have to make a move to make room for Rodriguez.

[UNCBlue012]

Wow. I like Povse and Whalen, but this is a perfect trade for us. We got exactly what we need. Will it work out? Who knows. But you make this trade every single day if you're us. In that light, it's an excellent move for Seattle. Awesome swap.

[nsacpi]

I like the trade for Seattle. But where do you put Povse and Whalen? Neither of them really fit into our long term rotation plans and are behind 10 other minor pitchers.

Yeah. Povse is about #10 for starting pitchers in the system. But the pecking order evolves quite a bit over time. I think he has a better chance of having a productive major league career than Jackson.

[dak]

Maybe the PTBNL is to give us time to shuffle the 40-man roster? Not really sure why else they wouldn't announce a player or money or future considerations.

Best I can come up is that the PTBNL is eligible for the Rule 5 draft. So we need to wait to ensure the player isn't take before the trade can be completed. If the player is taken, we'd move to an agreed upon plan B player.

[bravesfanMatt]

I was thinking Whelan was on 40-man, but that was not the case. They still have to make a move to make room for Rodriguez.

Whalen had to be. He pitched in the bigs last year. No way he cleared waivers.

[50PoundHead]

This part caught my eye:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/atlanta-braves



Does anybody know much about this kid?

Povse is a groundball pitcher and has solid control numbers. He was the Braves' 3rd round pick in 2014 and the pick was largely derided given his uneven performance at UNC-Greensboro and some injury issues. Could be one of DeMacio's sleeper picks that turns into something. I think his performance in Mississippi put him on the radar.

I like Whalen, but he could be one of those AAAA guys who simply eats up minor league competition but lacks the stuff to be consistently effective at the major league level. No questioning his competitiveness and sometimes those guys succeed solely on their will.

[50PoundHead]

Don't know much about Clinton but from the pitching numbers it looks as if it must be an extreme pitchers park.

As for the comparison with Davidson, I think Jackson has shown mush more at this point, which still isn't saying a ton.

It doesn't matter if it's a pitchers' park if you're not making contact. I'm fine with the deal. Curious to see if they move Jackson behind the plate.

[clvclv]

Just updating my organizational depth chart and the thought occurred to me that this trade also may signal that they saw enough in Weigel, Mader, and Withrow last season that made them want to clear the path ahead of them a bit. Assuming Newcomb progresses as hoped this season, you'd still have plenty of competition for the #4 and #5 spots for 2018 in...

Wisler
Blair
Fried
Sims
Weigel
Mader
Withrow

and you'll still have to figure out what to do with

Gant
Jenkins
Ellis
Beech


That's 11 arrns for 12 back-end, AAA, and AA spots without signing or trading for anyone outside the organization or fast-tracking anyone.

[smootness]

Yeah. Povse is about #10 for starting pitchers in the system. But the pecking order evolves quite a bit over time. I think he has a better chance of having a productive major league career than Jackson.

I think he has a better chance of making the majors, but I don't think he has a better chance of being productive once he's there. Povse is the kind of guy who, best-case, is probably something like a 1-2 WAR guy in either the rotation or bullpen. There's value there, but he's not a difference-maker. Jackson has less of a chance of making the majors at this point, but he is a potential difference-maker. And when you have enough pitching in the minors to have a bunch of potential difference-makers and a bunch of guys who could get to that 1-2 WAR level, I think it more than makes sense.

As far as being #10 in the system, I put those 10 as Newcomb, Allard, Anderson, Fried, Toussaint, Soroka, Weigel, Wentz, Sims, and Muller. To me, Povse is not on the same level as those 10. I know you said about 10, but when you have at least 10 pitching prospects in your system clearly better than someone, isn't he the definition of expendable at that point? And that doesn't include other young guys like Folty, Wisler, and Blair.

[Chico]

Best I can come up is that the PTBNL is eligible for the Rule 5 draft. So we need to wait to ensure the player isn't take before the trade can be completed. If the player is taken, we'd move to an agreed upon plan B player.

That very well could be the case. I looked up a couple of articles on their best unprotected players and there are a few of interest who did not get protected. Tyler Marlette AA catcher Dylan Unsworth AA starter and Tyler Smith AAA infielder.


http://www.outsidepitchmlb.com/seattle-mariners-cho/56727

[Russ2dollas]

I can't see how anyone does not like this deal.

All we complain about is too many pitchers. In this case we trade pitching for a bat and open up a 40 man spot we needed open.

Yes the most likely outcome is that he never plays an inning in MLB. But he's young, he's talented he's a position player.

I think this deal is amazing and I liked Povse.

The chance that Povse and Whalen can be filled by the current system or the next draft is about 99%. The Braves getting a high upside bat is much lower.

[Chico]

I like everyone else love this deal. Sell high and buy low. Trade from depth. It's really that easy. Whalen and Povse were both at their peak value. Jackson is at his lowest value.

[Tapate50]

That very well could be the case. I looked up a couple of articles on their best unprotected players and there are a few of interest who did not get protected. Tyler Marlette AA catcher Dylan Unsworth AA starter and Tyler Smith AAA infielder.


http://www.outsidepitchmlb.com/seattle-mariners-cho/56727

Why not complete the trade now and not wait on them to be exposed to the Rule 5 anyway? Not sure that helps anyone in this scenario

[clvclv]

FWIW, J. J. Cooper wasn't that big on the deal - explains that it makes sense only because of our depth and recommends a move back behind the plate as well.

[mqt]

Why not complete the trade now and not wait on them to be exposed to the Rule 5 anyway? Not sure that helps anyone in this scenario

Presumably for 40-man considerations. If we complete the trade for such a player before the Rule 5 draft, we have to put them on the 40-man, but if they aren't taken, we can maintain flexibility.

[Horsehide Harry]

It doesn't matter if it's a pitchers' park if you're not making contact. I'm fine with the deal. Curious to see if they move Jackson behind the plate.

But just making contact isn't his game and never has been and shouldn't be expected moving forward.

Andrelton Simmons made contact with just about everything but wasn't very effective as a hitter.

Jackson's K rate is a little concerning but might be affected by things like foul territory, backdrop, lighting, etc., at least to an extent.

Jackson's average may also be affected by park size (too many HR fly ball caught on the track), foul territory, backdrop, mound height, etc.

A park can have an impact just from an intimidation factor alone.

As far as Jackson behind the plate, I bet they will at least give it a try. A .250, .350, .500 catcher with 30% K rate is an All-Star if his defense is average or better.

[Tapate50]

Presumably for 40-man considerations. If we complete the trade for such a player before the Rule 5 draft, we have to put them on the 40-man, but if they aren't taken, we can maintain flexibility.

I would imagine getting the guy you want in the deal would be a little more important? Maybe I'm off on this.

[dak]

Presumably for 40-man considerations. If we complete the trade for such a player before the Rule 5 draft, we have to put them on the 40-man, but if they aren't taken, we can maintain flexibility.

Agreed. 40-man spots are precious, especially for a team with a growing talent base.

[Enscheff]

I like everyone else love this deal. Sell high and buy low. Trade from depth. It's really that easy. Whalen and Povse were both at their peak value. Jackson is at his lowest value.

Can't argue with this. Getting a former #6 overall draft pick who has demonstrated he can't hit is about as "buy low" as it gets. Trading away a guy who had AA success at age 23 after signing out of college is a pretty good example of "selling high" as well.

[smootness]

FWIW, J. J. Cooper wasn't that big on the deal - explains that it makes sense only because of our depth and recommends a move back behind the plate as well.

Yeah, but he said, 'His bat doesn't fit in RF,' which is a pretty dumb thing to say about a guy with limited experience in A-ball. We don't know what his bat is yet.

[zbhargrove]

Yeah. Povse is about #10 for starting pitchers in the system. But the pecking order evolves quite a bit over time. I think he has a better chance of having a productive major league career than Jackson.

Yes but we have boat loads of the same type of pitcher... and quite a few that are much better. There's likely no chance he will see the majors with us. Jackson is only 20 with all the potential in the world as an offensive player. We need offensive players in the prospect pipeline. To say Jackson is not a prospect anymore is just plain silly.

[smootness]

Can't argue with this. Getting a former #6 overall draft pick who has demonstrated he can't hit is about as "buy low" as it gets. Trading away a guy who had AA success at age 23 after signing out of college is a pretty good example of "selling high" as well.

When a guy's value is as low as it's ever been and another's value is as high as it's ever been, and those two values are pretty equal, I'm going to make that deal just about every day even if I know nothing else about the two players.

[Horsehide Harry]

At some point the Braves have to find some batting depth in the system. They have some options on high average, high OBP, low power guys, but are pretty limited on guys with a power/production profile. They are obviously willing to gamble on Jackson with two pitchers who probably had a limited future with the Braves. Whalen, to me, screams AAAA. Povse is the one that might be a loss but he's pretty far down the list as far as Braves pitching prospects.

[clvclv]

Yeah, but he said, 'His bat doesn't fit in RF,' which is a pretty dumb thing to say about a guy with limited experience in A-ball. We don't know what his bat is yet.

What I'd expect that he probably didn't feel like he had to say is that Jackson was ticketed for a THIRD trip through A-ball had he not been traded, and for a guy drafted ahead of Conforto, Trea Turner, Casey Gillaspie, and Bradley Zimmer, he certainly hasn't come close to keeping up with his draft class.

Again, that's not to say he isn't a wildcard with a chance to figure some things out and that it was a bad trade - just pointing out that this has a LONG way to go to becoming a steal, because to this point Jackson's done nothing to indicate he's ever going to get to The Show, much less hit 20+ bombs every year.

Garrett Spain made a great point about "prospect fatigue" in his article about Demeritte vs, Albies that seems pretty appropriate here as well. While Povse wasn't as advanced as Albies is, he's been quite good - everyone's just been hearing about him for a good while so people are more intrigued with shinier new toys (Jackson).

[smootness]

What I'd expect that he probably didn't feel like he had to say is that Jackson was ticketed for a THIRD trip through A-ball had he not been traded, and for a guy drafted ahead of Conforto, Trea Turner, Casey Gillaspie, and Bradley Zimmer, he certainly hasn't come close to keeping up with his draft class.

Again, that's not to say he isn't a wildcard with a chance to figure some things out and that it was a bad trade - just pointing out that this has a LONG way to go to becoming a steal, because to this point Jackson's done nothing to indicate he's ever going to get to The Show, much less hit 20+ bombs every year.

Garrett Spain made a great point about "prospect fatigue" in his article about Demeritte vs, Albies that seems pretty appropriate here as well. While Povse wasn't as advanced as Albies is, he's been quite good - everyone's just been hearing about him for a good while so people are more intrigued with shinier new toys (Jackson).

Conforto, Turner, Gillaspie, and Zimmer all came out of college.

I'm not arguing Jackson's value has dropped, it obviously has. I mean, he was a top-30 prospect a couple years ago and obviously isn't close to that right now. But he showed promising signs last year and he's one good year in A+ away from jumping right back up into legit prospect territory again.

I just don't think it's fair to say that the reason we're so excited about the trade is because we've heard about Povse for a long time and now get someone new to talk about. That is a real thing, but I love the deal simply because Povse is a good but not great pitching prospect in a system overflowing with good-great pitching prospects and Jackson has a big-time ceiling. I think most understand the chances of him hitting that are very low, but it's still a great deal to take that chance.

I am not one of those who thinks Demeritte is approximately Albies. I love Albies and hate the idea of trading him. But I also love this deal.

[clvclv]

BA podcast - Jackson talk starts at about 17:30.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/baseball-america-tigers-podcast/#1YfdTmXCQrtFkCrX.97

[UNCBlue012]

Jackson's last 80 games of 2016: .264/.341/.421

Just some positive looks.

[Carp]

Can't argue with this. Getting a former #6 overall draft pick who has demonstrated he can't hit is about as "buy low" as it gets. Trading away a guy who had AA success at age 23 after signing out of college is a pretty good example of "selling high" as well.

I'm failing to see how a 20 year old with a mid.700 OPS in his first full year in A ball is considered "demonstrated he can't hit. "

[sturg33]

I'm cool with this type of deal. It's a deal we will most likely lose but the upside of winning is much larger than the downside of losing.

I'm in the "move him to catcher" camp, though

[clvclv]

I'm failing to see how a 20 year old with a mid.700 OPS in his first full year in A ball is considered "demonstrated he can't hit. "

They get into his struggles in the BA podcast - mention that he wasn't cooperative when asked to make adjustments, etc.. Also pointed out that he's the only high school first-rounder in this century NOT to be assigned to a full season roster within two years of being drafted (there was one other, but he was suspended).

Again, he's got upside - but moving him back behind the plate certainly isn't likely to help his bat much. The guys on the podcast both think his profile and upside fit best as a backup Catcher - IF the defense can develop.

[clvclv]

I'm cool with this type of deal. It's a deal we will most likely lose but the upside of winning is much larger than the downside of losing.

I'm in the "move him to catcher" camp, though

Just need to be careful about how many of these types of players we're willing to roll the dice on though - all that pitching depth can dry up real quick with several two-for-one deals of back-end SPs for wildcards. Mix in a couple injuries and all of a sudden you become pitching-poor pretty easily.

[bravesfanMatt]

Jackson's last 80 games of 2016: .264/.341/.421

Just some positive looks.

His home/away splits are crazy. He hated to hit in Clinton. If you take out his slow May (like you did) but also look at his road games less May he was .310/.395/.509/.904 over 43 games and 182 plate appearances.. Even with his slow may, his away splits are an .872 OPS for 2016.

[Chico]

They get into his struggles in the BA podcast - mention that he wasn't cooperative when asked to make adjustments, etc.. Also pointed out that he's the only high school first-rounder in this century NOT to be assigned to a full season roster within two years of being drafted (there was one other, but he was suspended).

Again, he's got upside - but moving him back behind the plate certainly isn't likely to help his bat much. The guys on the podcast both think his profile and upside fit best as a backup Catcher - IF the defense can develop.

I've read all the quotes about his maturity and frankly that makes me feel better about the trade. I'm also old enough to think all 20 year olds are immature/spoiled. You add in being the top high school bat in CA and he was probably a little biatch. The hope is a change of scenery and a dose of reality will get his head in the game. You can't teach talent, but you can put your foot up a talented kid's arse and sometimes get results.

[Tapate50]

His home/away splits are crazy. He hated to hit in Clinton. If you take out his slow May (like you did) but also look at his road games less May he was .310/.395/.509/.904 over 43 games and 182 plate appearances.. Even with his slow may, his away splits are an .872 OPS for 2016.

POSIBRAVES ASSSSEEEMMMBBLLEEE!

[Enscheff]

This trade isn't bad. Alex Jackson isn't a bad prospect. Just because someone isn't jumping up and down proclaiming this trade a "steal by the genius Coppy" doesn't mean they are calling it a bad trade.

Fact of the mater is nobody on this board even knew who Alex Jackson was before this trade. Before he was a Brave everybody on this board would have called him a bust, or at the very least well on his way to becoming one. Now that he was acquired by the Braves, he is suddenly some guy on the verge of breaking out, and Povse is suddenly chopped liver the Braves can afford to toss away for this lottery ticket bat.

Remember all those people that said Whalen "just knew how to pitch", and should be given a chance to stick as a starter that "hits his spots like Maddux" and "just got people out"? Where are they now? They are calling him a completely fungible asset now that he was traded, just like I had been describing him months ago.

So what changed? Their uniforms, and nothing else. All objectivity has been tossed out the window as a result.

At the end of the day, Jackson will probably completely bust, and Whalen and Povse will be fringe contributors at the MLB level. This is far from some amazing steal of a trade by the Braves. The most accurate description is that the Braves used pitching depth to buy a lottery ticket, which I find an odd use of talent assets. However, odd does not equal bad, so we can stop with the arguments defending the trade as if anyone called it bad.

[Enscheff]

POSIBRAVES ASSSSEEEMMMBBLLEEE!

Has he owned a Braves jacket since he was 12?

[thewupk]

The fact is that guys his age, at that level, and striking out at that rate rarely amount to much.

[Enscheff]

The fact is that guys his age, at that level, and striking out at that rate rarely amount to much.

Someone in the Braves FO still jerks off to Jackson's scouting dossier before bed at night, and saw an opportunity to acquire him and clear a spot on the 40 man roster at the same time. Now that the last few teams like the Twins and DBacks have emerged from the stone age, the Braves are probably one of the most "old school" teams remaining.

There is a reason he is no longer a top prospect, and it isn't because 20 year olds in Low-A who strike out a third of the time make much of an impact at the MLB level.

[Chico]

Enscheff...I'm still trying to figure out your true identity. You talk about things like weightlifting, becoming a dad, and anything else that signifies being a man. (which is very weird for a real man to do on the internet) Yet you want to argue all of the time and need constant attention.

I just can't figure out if you're a kid or a woman.

[Enscheff]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-prospects-in-the-alex-jackson-deal/

[gilesfan]

POSIBRAVES ASSSSEEEMMMBBLLEEE!

Rumor has it, if you exclude his strikeouts and count them as hits, he had a good year.

[gilesfan]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-prospects-in-the-alex-jackson-deal/

Really fits both teams. Seattle was probably happy to get anything from for him while the Braves were happy to free up a spot and get a guy with potential upside.

[Russ2dollas]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-prospects-in-the-alex-jackson-deal/

Those guys are clearly not fans. But they keep saying a lot of it may be attitude. This could be the kid's wake up call.

They seem to gloss over the "value" of Whalen and Povse. The mets thought Whalen was worth a couple of months of KJ.

[Russ2dollas]

The fact is that guys his age, at that level, and striking out at that rate rarely amount to much.

But we love Demerritte? Isn't he a level up and a couple of years older?

[gilesfan]

But we love Demerritte? Isn't he a level up and a couple of years older?

Not all of us do.

[thewupk]

But we love Demerritte? Isn't he a level up and a couple of years older?

Do we? TD likely has a future as a bench player due to his good defense. There is a reason we got him for what we gave up.

[Enscheff]

But we love Demerritte? Isn't he a level up and a couple of years older?

I like TD just fine. Definitely more than Jackson since he can play great defense that will give him a MLB-level floor as a bench player.

I'm also able to understand he isn't Baez v2.0 like some posters here have deluded themselves into thinking.

[smootness]

Someone in the Braves FO still jerks off to Jackson's scouting dossier before bed at night, and saw an opportunity to acquire him and clear a spot on the 40 man roster at the same time. Now that the last few teams like the Twins and DBacks have emerged from the stone age, the Braves are probably one of the most "old school" teams remaining.

There is a reason he is no longer a top prospect, and it isn't because 20 year olds in Low-A who strike out a third of the time make much of an impact at the MLB level.

You are bizarre.

I have no idea how this move would signify that the Braves are not looking at this from an 'advanced scouting/metrics' position or why you seem so upset by it.

The Braves have done plenty that would suggest they're one of the more advanced front offices in baseball.

[Tapate50]

Optimistic we can move him to C and get some productivity. From his HS accolades, this kid was no bum whatsoever. Was a mediocre Whalen fan, but Povse is the real loss here. That said, we could end up with a solid backup C on this if he can transition back. At this point, i'll take some lotto tickets there.

Wonder who we could see at PTBNL

[Enscheff]

You are bizarre.

I have no idea how this move would signify that the Braves are not looking at this from an 'advanced scouting/metrics' position or why you seem so upset by it.

The Braves have done plenty that would suggest they're one of the more advanced front offices in baseball.

Not upset at all. Ultimately, the Braves traded a couple non-contributers for a guy that will bust out of pro ball within 3 more years, so it is a rather meaningless transaction.

We are discussing the trade, and folks are giving their opinions. Some think it was a steal. Some think it wasn't. I think it was an odd use of pitching talent assets. That's all.

[smootness]

Not upset at all. Ultimately, the Braves traded a couple non-contributers for a guy that will bust out of pro ball within 3 more years, so it is a rather meaningless transaction.

We are discussing the trade, and folks are giving their opinions. Some think it was a steal. Some think it wasn't. I think it was an odd use of pitching talent assets. That's all.

Fair enough. But we all know it is difficult to obtain big bats, and the Braves got someone who could become one out of its mostly useless pitching surplus. Most likely, it's a mostly meaningless deal, as you suggested. Worst-case, we gave up two guys who will pitch decently in the majors for several years in some capacity and got nothing in return. Best-case, we gave up useless pitchers for a big-time bat. I'll take that all day.

[Heyward]

Povse and Whalen are solid but i dont see how anyone could be upset with this trade.

Braves have tons of guys like Povse, Whalen in the system.

Good buy low move from Coppy.

[cajunrevenge]

The fact is that guys his age, at that level, and striking out at that rate rarely amount to much.


The odds are against most prospects to begin with.

[Enscheff]

Fair enough. But we all know it is difficult to obtain big bats, and the Braves got someone who could become one out of its mostly useless pitching surplus. Most likely, it's a mostly meaningless deal, as you suggested. Worst-case, we gave up two guys who will pitch decently in the majors for several years in some capacity and got nothing in return. Best-case, we gave up useless pitchers for a big-time bat. I'll take that all day.

The Braves definitely got the player with the highest ceiling. That much is certainly indisputable. They traded floor for ceiling.

Guys like Whalen and Povse are typically traded for bench players at the deadline (which is exactly how the Braves got Whalen), or as filler in bigger trades. I would have preferred them to be used like that than traded for a lottery ticket, but it probably won't matter. The Braves have several more Whalen's and Povse's to trade if needed.

[Russ2dollas]

Do we? TD likely has a future as a bench player due to his good defense. There is a reason we got him for what we gave up.

It's good defense but likely at 2B.

By all accounts this kid is an athlete with an attitude problem. He should have the tools to be a solid defender. If he just wants to spend his 4 million dollars then he flames out and we move on to the new man crush.

IF, big IF, he can catch then he's maybe really valuable. We know he has the arm.

I just don't get how 21 in high A is all of a sudden a death sentence. I know it's a super high K rate. He's a flawed prospect. If he wasn't he would not be on the market.

At some point the Braves have to get it right with a bat, right? Bring in the volume and see if one hits (pun intended).

[mqt]

The Braves definitely got the player with the highest ceiling. That much is certainly indisputable. They traded floor for ceiling.

Guys like Whalen and Povse are typically traded for bench players at the deadline (which is exactly how the Braves got Whalen), or as filler in bigger trades. I would have preferred them to be used like that than traded for a lottery ticket, but it probably won't matter. The Braves have several more Whalen's and Povse's to trade if needed.

I'd disagree with this, simply due to the fact that I think we're still a year away from having any reason to attempt to fill out our bench mid-season. I feel like we're still at a point where we need to be looking at the future and going after upside. It's the same reason why trading for Sale isn't likely a good option for us right now.

[Chico]

I don't think you put him at catcher. You put him in the OF and just let him hit. Take all the pressure off and just hit

[thewupk]

The odds are against most prospects to begin with.

Indeed. And when you can't make contact in A ball it's that much harder.

[Carp]

They get into his struggles in the BA podcast - mention that he wasn't cooperative when asked to make adjustments, etc.. Also pointed out that he's the only high school first-rounder in this century NOT to be assigned to a full season roster within two years of being drafted (there was one other, but he was suspended).

Again, he's got upside - but moving him back behind the plate certainly isn't likely to help his bat much. The guys on the podcast both think his profile and upside fit best as a backup Catcher - IF the defense can develop.

If he hits 20+ homers with average defense, he's far more than a back-up catcher.

[thewupk]

It's good defense but likely at 2B.

By all accounts this kid is an athlete with an attitude problem. He should have the tools to be a solid defender. If he just wants to spend his 4 million dollars then he flames out and we move on to the new man crush.

IF, big IF, he can catch then he's maybe really valuable. We know he has the arm.

I just don't get how 21 in high A is all of a sudden a death sentence. I know it's a super high K rate. He's a flawed prospect. If he wasn't he would not be on the market.

At some point the Braves have to get it right with a bat, right? Bring in the volume and see if one hits (pun intended).

I agree. Just like the drafting of all the pitchers. Some of them should stick. I'm not against the move but the high K% in the low minors is a lot to overcome. Yet there have been posts mentioning "this is a steal" and "hes our 2nd best OF prospect". I can understand the excitement of making a trade but the hype needs to be contained. Just like the talk of TD making Albies expendable.

[Southcack77]

Not upset at all. Ultimately, the Braves traded a couple non-contributers for a guy that will bust out of pro ball within 3 more years, so it is a rather meaningless transaction.

We are discussing the trade, and folks are giving their opinions. Some think it was a steal. Some think it wasn't. I think it was an odd use of pitching talent assets. That's all.

If he's definitely going to bust out of baseball within three years, it was more than an odd use of assets, it was a bad use of assets.

I think maybe they don't think it is definite.

[Enscheff]

If he's definitely going to bust out of baseball within three years, it was more than an odd use of assets, it was a bad use of assets.

I think maybe they don't think it is definite.

Find a 20 year old with the same or worse K rate in Low-A ball that made an impact at the MLB level. Then we can start to talk about his potential. I honestly don't know if there are any such players, so it would be good to know.

[Southcack77]

Indeed. And when you can't make contact in A ball it's that much harder.

I'd agree with that. I think this is probably mostly buying a ticket hoping that a change of scenery into the Atlanta system will turn the kid around. The kid has to deal with one team giving up on him and the change of voices sometimes makes a difference. But yeah, like Demeritte he has a long way to go for folks to think he plays in the majors.

Whalen really isn't much of a factor for Atlanta. Povse looks more interesting, but good chance that's mostly because he's further away from the Majors and that lets people dream a little bit more. The K rate for him looks like it will be pedestrian and the stuff is ok, but nothing great. So upside of back of the rotation, which has some potential value but nothing to write home about for Atlanta.

The question I guess is more about whether these guys might have helped get something better in a different package.

[50PoundHead]

Find a 20 year old with the same or worse K rate in Low-A ball that made an impact at the MLB level. Then we can start to talk about his potential. I honestly don't know if there are any such players, so it would be good to know.

You have obviously forgotten about:

http://a1.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2Fphoto%2F2012%2F0611%2Fmlb_g_hessman_gb1_2 00.jpg&w=267

[jimsnores]

You have obviously forgotten about:

http://a1.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2Fphoto%2F2012%2F0611%2Fmlb_g_hessman_gb1_2 00.jpg&w=267

I hope the Braves didn't get Jackson so he could rack up prodigious MiLB homerun numbers. Regarding the SO totals in low levels, we don't have too look too far to see an example of a player whose SO percentage is going down as he moves up in levels. Dustin Peterson's first year in full season ball saw him strike about at about a 25% clip, down to 19% in AAA. Jackson is higher, but a significant improvement isn't unheard of. With his power, perhaps a little better contact and some maturity might make a big difference. As others have intimated, he wasn't obtained for his floor, but for his ceiling. "Lottery Ticket" is probably less descriptive than "buying the IP stock of a company that probably won't make it, but could make it big if they do".

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

The more I hear about this, the more meh I am on it unless we move him to catcher.

[mqt]

One hope I have is that moving him to Catcher energizes him in a way he hasn't been with Seattle. While the makeup issues are hard to ignore, I wonder if letting him go back to a position he loved and giving him a new group of coaches and players that are highly energetic about the state of our system might help engage him.

Now, I obviously understand that is some pretty lame armchair sports psychiatry, but the kid had some mighty impressive tools going into the draft, and it's not just his performance that's been sub-par, the tools have faded as well according to reports. Maybe he was overrated tools-wise and real competition exposed that. Or maybe it is an attitude thing and it won't be fixed in a new place, but it seems like at least a small reason to have some hope.

[Jay212033]

https://youtu.be/LSnvdcH--dg

I liked Jackson when he was drafted but if you look at the video posted his hands are too low at the start of his swing. When he was drafted his hands were up higher to start his swing.

[clvclv]

If he hits 20+ homers with average defense, he's far more than a back-up catcher.

No doubt. They were discussing realistic expectations based on what he's shown to this point in addition to what their discussions with scouts and people inside the Seattle organization have termed as someone that hasn't been willing to make changes - to this point. They weren't critical of the trade by any means. They just pointed out what many have - that they expect both Pitchers to contribute at the MLB level at some point, although not necessarily as significant pieces, and that the clock is already ticking on Jackson but the upside could still be there IF he matures and becomes more open to coaching.

Their mention about fitting the backup Catcher profile was based on their feeling that he's not a lost cause - they felt that he can turn into a solid backstop with a strong arm and some pop even if he doesn't reach his ceiling (which so few do).

The general feeling was that while there's no reason to be overly excited and call the deal a "win-win", but that it certainly made sense for both sides - given our current pitching depth, it's tough to say taking a flier or two like this is a bad move. My point is that you just need to be careful about making too many trades like it because it's easy to burn through that depth doing so. If you assume you'll use 10 SPs over the course of a season, we're looking at Perez, Gant, and Jenkins as #8-#10 now. Sims and Fried are #11 and #12 on my chart, with Newcomb and Ellis next up meaning they'd have to be added to the 40-Man Roster this season. JMO, but I think the brass would prefer not to do that unless Newcomb forces his way into the rotation for good.

I'm not condemning the deal at all - far from it - I'm with everyone else that wants to add potential impact bats when possible. I'd just prefer that they have a little better track record and/or reputation than Jackson appears to have if we're going to trade TWO arms that most expect to at least contribute to the big club in the near-future for them. The cost for Jackson seems a little steep for me given what he's shown thus far, but there's definitely talent in there.

When you look back at the 2014 high school crop, it hasn't been very good thus far, and it was widely viewed as a pretty weak class at the time as well. The highest-regarded name in that class so far has been Michael Kopech (who was #35 according to BA). Nick Gordon (#9), Alex Verdugo (#12), Toussaint (#5), Forrest Wall (#19), and Justus Sheffield (#20) were in there as well. Then you had guys like -

Tyler Kolek (#1)
Jackson (#2)
Brady Aiken (#4)
Braxton Davidson (#10)

who just haven't shown much at all to this point. While Jackson was the top hitter in the class - and considered for the top pick - it just wasn't a very strong class.

[TheBravos]

I would say that you don't make a trade with Seattle "unless", someone in our orginazation went to bat for this kid. Someone believes in his potential. They thought he was worth the gamble. End of the day...we loose this trade and we will never feel it, but we sure will if we win it. Whalen was never going to get another chance with the pitcher free agent signings, and they have many guys they like better than povse. I would say there will be one or two more deals like this...we have a log jam of pitchers.

[clvclv]

Got this tweet from Jonathan Mayo which pretty much sums it up for me as well...


clvclvWSS Braves have depth in arms and traded from it. If they can get Jackson straightened out, it will be worth it
8:09 PM - 29 Nov 2016

[smootness]

I honestly don't think you can say Whalen+Povse is too steap a price to pay for pretty much anything. I get that there is some value in any player who is likely to make the majors, but does the difference from Whalen and Povse to guys like Perez and Jenkins really matter? If you're stretching into them for SP depth, you're not going to get great results from any of them. And we are absolutely loaded with bullpen arms considering that any of the SP who don't pan out are possibilities there.

That's why I like the deal - to me, we gave up just about nothing and got a potential bat. Sure, he's a long shot, perhaps even more of one than Touki was when we got him, but it's still worth it and I'd make similar trades out of our depth every time.

[smootness]

Got this tweet from Jonathan Mayo which pretty much sums it up for me as well...


clvclvWSS Braves have depth in arms and traded from it. If they can get Jackson straightened out, it will be worth it
8:09 PM - 29 Nov 2016

Yep, that's a pretty good summary.

[Carp]

Find a 20 year old with the same or worse K rate in Low-A ball that made an impact at the MLB level. Then we can start to talk about his potential. I honestly don't know if there are any such players, so it would be good to know.

First person I searched for was Ryan Howard. And he was 21/22 in A/A+ and K rates were nearly exactly the same.

[Krgrecw]

The guy isn't and never will be a catcher. He can't make contact and whiffs 1/3 of the his at bats in A ball. His hitting skills have deteriorated since he was drafted.


Braves lost that trade big time.

[thewupk]

First person I searched for was Ryan Howard. And he was 21/22 in A/A+ and K rates were nearly exactly the same.

A couple of key differences. Howard struck out a ton but was still a couple of % points lower than Jackson. He also walked a decent amount more and of course already had killer power.

Still, Howard is one of the exceptions of huge strikeout guys and I don't think we should be predicting Howard type power from Jackson.

[smootness]

A couple of key differences. Howard struck out a ton but was still a couple of % points lower than Jackson. He also walked a decent amount more and of course already had killer power.

Still, Howard is one of the exceptions of huge strikeout guys and I don't think we should be predicting Howard type power from Jackson.

Well, he specifically asked for any exceptions. And Howard struck out at 26% as a 22-year-old. Jackson struck out 27% as a 20-year-old. I'd actually take Jackson's over Howard's.

[smootness]

The guy isn't and never will be a catcher. He can't make contact and whiffs 1/3 of the his at bats in A ball. His hitting skills have deteriorated since he was drafted.


Braves lost that trade big time.

Ok haha

[thewupk]

Well, he specifically asked for any exceptions. And Howard struck out at 26% as a 22-year-old. Jackson struck out 27% as a 20-year-old. I'd actually take Jackson's over Howard's.

I understand that. But the rest of Howards game were quite a bit better than made his transition to the big leagues easier. It's rare to strikeout nearly 30% of the time in the low minors, continue that, and find success at the major league level. To do so you need other really redeemable qualities. I don't see that in Jackson right now. Which is why most people are saying the odds are really staked against him. Which is why we were able to get him for what we did. He is a lottery ticket and there is nothing wrong with that. Just like Povse and Whalen are virtual lottery tickets to actually do anything at the major league level.

This is basically a non consequence move that most people will have forgotten about a year or two from now.

[clvclv]

I honestly don't think you can say Whalen+Povse is too steap a price to pay for pretty much anything. I get that there is some value in any player who is likely to make the majors, but does the difference from Whalen and Povse to guys like Perez and Jenkins really matter? If you're stretching into them for SP depth, you're not going to get great results from any of them. And we are absolutely loaded with bullpen arms considering that any of the SP who don't pan out are possibilities there.

That's why I like the deal - to me, we gave up just about nothing and got a potential bat. Sure, he's a long shot, perhaps even more of one than Touki was when we got him, but it's still worth it and I'd make similar trades out of our depth every time.

The only reason I feel it was a little steep is that I honestly wonder how many other teams Seattle had lined up to give them more than one arm that you feel pretty confident will contribute to a big club this season. Seattle's doing what the Red Sox did a couple years ago - shopping at the bottom of the barrel for mid and back of the rotation guys in the hopes that they can replace Walker's innings on the cheap and hoping that King Felix has some kind of a Verlander-like renaissance. If Hernandez doesn't bounce back and Paxton doesn't take a big step forward (plus stay healthy) - they're going to have a rotation full of #3/#4s.

If Jackson had a little better reputation, I'm sure they'd have had a handful of teams that would've lined up to gamble on Jackson. I just get a sneaky feeling that if Coppy would have drawn a line in the sand and told DiPoto he could have his pick - but only one - we'd still have gotten Jackson. Like you mention, we've got a handful of those guys - I'd have just told him he could have any one of Whalen/Perez/Gant/or Jenkins - or if they had that much interest in someone further away like Povse, he could pick between Povse and Ellis. I'd have kept Sims out of the discussions just because I personally think he could turn into a dynamic pen piece - and that could be coming soon.

[Carp]

A couple of key differences. Howard struck out a ton but was still a couple of % points lower than Jackson. He also walked a decent amount more and of course already had killer power.

Still, Howard is one of the exceptions of huge strikeout guys and I don't think we should be predicting Howard type power from Jackson.

True, but the topic was K rates at lower levels, he is the first comp that I looked at. I'm sure there are several others.

Jackson already made significant strides from his first year to his 2nd year. This will definitely be a critical year in terms of his development.

[thewupk]

True, but the topic was K rates at lower levels, he is the first comp that I looked at. I'm sure there are several others.

Jackson already made significant strides from his first year to his 2nd year. This will definitely be a critical year in terms of his development.

There are several others. There are always players that buck the trend. But not being able to make contact in A ball is not something you want to see. Players can make adjustments and overcome that but it's very difficult. Hopefully Alex is one of those players.

[mqt]

There are several others. There are always players that buck the trend. But not being able to make contact in A ball is not something you want to see. Players can make adjustments and overcome that but it's very difficult. Hopefully Alex is one of those players.


Yeah, no matter how you look at it, the performance so far is a major concern. My primary question then becomes what can we point to in the scouting report that would account for him being such a poor performer with the tools he had just a couple years ago, and the answer seems to be unwillingness to be coached or make adjustments. The hope then is that somehow the new coaches can get through to him, or that being dealt for two possible backend starters is a wake up call.

I still think him catching again is a positive, not only because he seems to have a passion for it, but because he clearly needs work in the lower minors for his bat as it is, so why not bring him along slowly? It doesn't seem like he's anywhere near becoming the middle of the order threat Seattle was hoping he'd become right away, so see if he can stick at catcher where his bat wouldn't need to be quite as great.

[50PoundHead]

True, but the topic was K rates at lower levels, he is the first comp that I looked at. I'm sure there are several others.

Jackson already made significant strides from his first year to his 2nd year. This will definitely be a critical year in terms of his development.

The other angle on that is that, regardless of age, that was Howard's 2nd year of pro ball. 2016 was Jackson's 3rd. If Jackson turns into something, fine. But I'm right with thewupk. Jackson's K-rate is disturbing.

[Chico]

Yeah, no matter how you look at it, the performance so far is a major concern. My primary question then becomes what can we point to in the scouting report that would account for him being such a poor performer with the tools he had just a couple years ago, and the answer seems to be unwillingness to be coached or make adjustments. The hope then is that somehow the new coaches can get through to him, or that being dealt for two possible backend starters is a wake up call.

I still think him catching again is a positive, not only because he seems to have a passion for it, but because he clearly needs work in the lower minors for his bat as it is, so why not bring him along slowly? It doesn't seem like he's anywhere near becoming the middle of the order threat Seattle was hoping he'd become right away, so see if he can stick at catcher where his bat wouldn't need to be quite as great.

I'm hoping our new roving catching instructor who was on the Mariners in 2014 has given us some inside info.

http://www.ajc.com/sports/baseball/new-braves-catching-instructor-datz-should-know-prospect-alex-jackson/clvsjs4kojGEuyTzFXkRhK/

[Chico]

Kyle Tait ‏@HearKyleTait 1h1 hour ago
#Braves first pick in 2014 draft was 32nd. Now they have Jackson (6th, Mariners), Newcomb (15th, Angels), Toussaint (16th, DBacks), by trade

I've wonded if Max Pentecost could be a good buy low acquisiton. He's finally back after his shoulder injuries and has been DH'ing. His next step is getting back to catching.

He was the #11 pick in 2014

[bravesfanMatt]

My undying posi braveism is hoping that the injuries (shoulder and hand or wrist) is a big cause of his struggles. When did he start to feel this vs. getting it fixed. Also, a change of scenery and teams can make a big difference in a young player like this. I still dislike the trade personally... ( I just thought Povse and Whalen had more room to grow and gain value where Jackson might be as high as it ever will be).. but I am holding hope that Scouts saw something and this wasn't a Hart hardon for another player he liked a few years ago.

[Southcack77]

I hope the Braves didn't get Jackson so he could rack up prodigious MiLB homerun numbers. Regarding the SO totals in low levels, we don't have too look too far to see an example of a player whose SO percentage is going down as he moves up in levels. Dustin Peterson's first year in full season ball saw him strike about at about a 25% clip, down to 19% in AAA. Jackson is higher, but a significant improvement isn't unheard of. With his power, perhaps a little better contact and some maturity might make a big difference. As others have intimated, he wasn't obtained for his floor, but for his ceiling. "Lottery Ticket" is probably less descriptive than "buying the IP stock of a company that probably won't make it, but could make it big if they do".

That's fair.

Also you are talking about one year with an injury and a second year where he obviously was not on the same page as the organization.

Road splits are also strange.

I think the chance is probably better than the near 0 chance of a lottery ticket hitting. But maybe not a ton more?

Question is whether there was any opportunity coast as far as better value elsewhere for those assets. I don't know the answer to that one.

[chop2chip]

Trade somewhat reminds me of the logic behind the Man Ban trade. Trade useful spare parts that ultimately don't move the needle for a high ceiling player with a lot of question marks. The Man Ban trade didn't work out, but I still liked that we did it. I feel the same way about this trade regardless if Jackson develops or not.

[Orphan Black]

Max Povse was listed as the Mariners #8 prospect by BA today.

[50PoundHead]

I've wonded if Max Pentecost could be a good buy low acquisiton. He's finally back after his shoulder injuries and has been DH'ing. His next step is getting back to catching.

He was the #11 pick in 2014

I've thought about acquiring Pentecost as well. A lot would depend on what the long-term prognosis is for his shoulder.

[Enscheff]

I've wonded if Max Pentecost could be a good buy low acquisiton. He's finally back after his shoulder injuries and has been DH'ing. His next step is getting back to catching.

He was the #11 pick in 2014

I think the Braves should just acquire every first round pick from the 2014 draft, even if they are completely out of baseball. Surely one of them will pan out!

[smootness]

The other angle on that is that, regardless of age, that was Howard's 2nd year of pro ball. 2016 was Jackson's 3rd. If Jackson turns into something, fine. But I'm right with thewupk. Jackson's K-rate is disturbing.

Howard had played 48 games after coming out of college entering that year. Jackson had played 100 games after coming out of high school. Not a big difference. In fact, again, the fact that Howard played 3 years of college would make me more concerned about him than even Jackson at this point.

His K-rate is certainly 'disturbing,' which is why he was available, and for relatively little. I don't think anyone is saying that Jackson's performance so far is reason to be excited about him. The question is whether or not his performance so far means there's no way he ever amounts to anything. And I think that's kind of crazy.

[thewupk]

Howard had played 48 games after coming out of college entering that year. Jackson had played 100 games after coming out of high school. Not a big difference. In fact, again, the fact that Howard played 3 years of college would make me more concerned about him than even Jackson at this point.

His K-rate is certainly 'disturbing,' which is why he was available, and for relatively little. I don't think anyone is saying that Jackson's performance so far is reason to be excited about him. The question is whether or not his performance so far means there's no way he ever amounts to anything. And I think that's kind of crazy.

Nobody has said that. But it does make it extremely unlikely.

[Carp]

The other angle on that is that, regardless of age, that was Howard's 2nd year of pro ball. 2016 was Jackson's 3rd. If Jackson turns into something, fine. But I'm right with thewupk. Jackson's K-rate is disturbing.

Jackson barely played in 2014 and was injured for much of 2015. He's played s grand total of like 9 more games through his 1st three years than Howard did throught his first two. Not to mention, Howard got 3 years of college ball.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

Nobody has said that. But it does make it extremely unlikely.
Krgrecw did on the last page (not word for word, but was implied).

[gilesfan]

Bottom line is that it is very disturbing that he started his 2nd full year in extended spring training instead of a full season league. That doesn't mean there is no hope, but there are tons of red flags with the guy. Performance wise, the extremely long swing is something that will have to be corrected.

[50PoundHead]

There is an adjustment college to pro and that has little to do with age.

[jpx7]

I like Whalen more than most. But honestly, the odds of him or Povse becoming more than back of the rotation type of pitchers seems slim.


While this was good value, this also seems like a move made to help clear the rotation logjam in the minors, as well as clearing up a 40 man spot.

Jackson has a good amount of potential, but is obviously a long way off. Hopefully we can help him make some adjustments and help him turn the corner as a prospect.

This, particularly the bolded section, seems the clearest-eyed take on this deal.

[thewupk]

Krgrecw did on the last page (not word for word, but was implied).

Sorry, one guy who isn't bringing actual discussion said that then.

[smootness]

There is an adjustment college to pro and that has little to do with age.

And that adjustment is not as difficult as HS to pro. I mean, it doesn't really matter, the bottom line is what everybody knows, which is that Jackson has plenty of risk.

[smootness]

Krgrecw did on the last page (not word for word, but was implied).

Enscheff implied the same.

[Carp]

There is an adjustment college to pro and that has little to do with age.

I would say college ball is on par with rookie level leagues. The biggest adjustment should be switching to wooden bats.

Regardless, the point is there are plenty of examples of similar players having various degrees of major league success. It doesn't mean that the K rate isn't worrisome, but I wouldn't let the K rate alone detract from his potential. He also improved from last year to this year. Just need him to keep improving.

[jpx7]

Recently drafted players can be traded the day after the World Series. It is known as the "Trea Turner Rule"

Huh. I thought it was known as the "**** That Dude" Rule.

[Enscheff]

Nobody has said that. But it does make it extremely unlikely.

I'll go ahead and say it. Jackson will not produce more than 5 WAR in his entire MLB career.

Anyone who disagrees must back up their assertion with a signature bet!

[Krgrecw]

I'll go ahead and say it. Jackson will not produce more than 5 WAR in his entire MLB career.

Anyone who disagrees must back up their assertion with a signature bet!


He won't. He'll fizzle out in the minors and everyone In here hyping him will forget about him.

[smootness]

I'll go ahead and say it. Jackson will not produce more than 5 WAR in his entire MLB career.

Anyone who disagrees must back up their assertion with a signature bet!

So when does it get settled - 2030?

[smootness]

He won't. He'll fizzle out in the minors and everyone In here hyping him will forget about him.

Who the heck is hyping him?

[50PoundHead]

I'll go ahead and say it. Jackson will not produce more than 5 WAR in his entire MLB career.

Anyone who disagrees must back up their assertion with a signature bet!

http://files.enjin.com/94106/gauntlet-thrown-down.jpg

The gauntlet has been thrown!

[chipchildress]

803418540959145984



well this will probably suck. povse will end up with a 10 year major league career. the dude is huge, doesn't walk hitters, and can throw pretty hard. did i mention that he is always around the plate at 6'9''?

i was afraid this is exactly what would happen. management would see all of these pitches and just start handing them out like candy.

hell, the braves could have started povse back in AA where he dominated to finish last year and watch his value double as he got that much closer to the big leagues.

jackson had better pan out. probably not. bad move.

[Russ2dollas]

well this will probably suck. povse will end up with a 10 year major league career. the dude is huge, doesn't walk hitters, and can throw pretty hard. did i mention that he is always around the plate at 6'9''?

i was afraid this is exactly what would happen. management would see all of these pitches and just start handing them out like candy.

hell, the braves could have started povse back in AA where he dominated to finish last year and watch his value double as he got that much closer to the big leagues.

jackson had better pan out. probably not. bad move.

he's a pitcher who is around the plate but throws a fastball in the high 80s. Yes he touches 94. But it seems like everyone is saying he lives around 88. He has some deception to his delivery and he's tall. He's a good pitching prospect.

I'd expect the Braves to replace him out of last draft easily and probably the next one.

This guy is a potential catcher and a potential impact bat. I like the risk. He's basically Touki with a bat. If I had to bet I'd bet neither guy is a MLB player but if they are......watch out.

[Oklahomahawk]

http://files.enjin.com/94106/gauntlet-thrown-down.jpg

The gauntlet has been thrown!

Nice gauntlet!!!

[smootness]

NM

[rico43]

Braves had to clear a 40-man roster spot. Got a one-time highly regarded prospect in the process. Povse was, what, maybe 10-12th among the starting prospects?
There are still far too many gloom and doom people who insist on being negative in the middle of one of the most remarkable franchise turnarounds we've ever seen in ATL.

[50PoundHead]

Braves had to clear a 40-man roster spot. Got a one-time highly regarded prospect in the process. Povse was, what, maybe 10-12th among the starting prospects?
There are still far too many gloom and doom people who insist on being negative in the middle of one of the most remarkable franchise turnarounds we've ever seen in ATL.

rico, I don't see anyone as being gloom and doom. I think there are some who are worried that Coppolella is trying to make the sun rise before its time. This is a reasonable trade. Too bad we couldn't get them to take Williams Perez. I can't figure out why he's on the 40-man roster.

[Enscheff]

Braves had to clear a 40-man roster spot. Got a one-time highly regarded prospect in the process. Povse was, what, maybe 10-12th among the starting prospects?
There are still far too many gloom and doom people who insist on being negative in the middle of one of the most remarkable franchise turnarounds we've ever seen in ATL.

Most remarkable turnarounds we've ever seen? They went from winning 67 games to winning 68 games so far, and are projected to win about 75 games this year.

Let's wait a bit before we label this rebuild a great success story that goes down in baseball lore.

[jpx7]

There are still far too many gloom and doom people who insist on being negative in the middle of one of the most remarkable franchise turnarounds we've ever seen in ATL.


I think there are some who are worried that Coppolella is trying to make the sun rise before its time.

Let's wait a bit before we label this rebuild a great success story that goes down in baseball lore.

I think both of those posts are on-point responses to yours, rico. It's not "doom and gloom" to withhold apotheosis status from Coppolella a little longer, and it's not trashing the trade to comment that the Braves made a reasonable gamble, but hardly the greatest heist since Rififi.

[rawwr]

I think both of those posts are on-point response to yours, rico. It's not "doom and gloom" to withhold apotheosis status from Coppolella a little longer, and it's not trashing the trade to comment that the Braves made a reasonable gamble, but hardly the greatest heist since Rififi.

Yeah for the most part I like what the Braves have done with this rebuild and I think they're on the right track, but when you're using phrases like "one of the most remarkable franchise turnarounds we've ever seen" before most of the prospects involved in the rebuild have even gotten out of A+, I don't even know how to begin having a conversation with you. I even liked this trade, but is it really "doom and gloom" to admit that the odds are stacked against Jackson ever amounting to anything?

[chipchildress]

povse is really tall. guys like that take time to grow into their adult bodies. this guy has gotten better ever step along the way, from high school to uncg where he wasn't spectacular, now making his way through the minors. his most advanced stop in baseball was his best.

if they want to trade him, trade him, what have they not seen this guy progress? it's not like it's a terrible bet that he'll be good this year, getting him closer to the bigs and almost certainly increasing his value along the way.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=605428#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

oh well. hope the new guy can play...

[chipchildress]

i predict that this will go down as one of the worst trades in braves history.

[Tapate50]

Still thinking the PTBNL will be after rule 5?

[Enscheff]

I think both of those posts are on-point responses to yours, rico. It's not "doom and gloom" to withhold apotheosis status from Coppolella a little longer, and it's not trashing the trade to comment that the Braves made a reasonable gamble, but hardly the greatest heist since Rififi.

Especially when one considers that if not for Dave Stewart being a complete buffoon, the Braves rebuild would actually look pretty dire. Remove Swanson and Inciarte from the organization and suddenly the Braves are in pretty awful shape.

When you are playing poker with a bunch of friends, and one of your buddies gets bored and just goes all in on the next hand so he can go watch TV, is the winner of that pot a better poker player than anyone else? Or is he simply the guy that just so happened to have a pair of kings when the stupid friend decided to go all in? Same thing happened with Coppy when he traded Miller.

[rico43]

Especially when one considers that if not for Dave Stewart being a complete buffoon, the Braves rebuild would actually look pretty dire. Remove Swanson and Inciarte from the organization and suddenly the Braves are in pretty awful shape.

When you are playing poker with a bunch of friends, and one of your buddies gets bored and just goes all in on the next hand so he can go watch TV, is the winner of that pot a better poker player than anyone else? Or is he simply the guy that just so happened to have a pair of kings when the stupid friend decided to go all in? Same thing happened with Coppy when he traded Miller.

I'd say it means you're a better poker player because it's you that's raking in all of the quitter's chips, not the other guys at the table.

Try another analogy.

[Deester11]

Especially when one considers that if not for Dave Stewart being a complete buffoon, the Braves rebuild would actually look pretty dire. Remove Swanson and Inciarte from the organization and suddenly the Braves are in pretty awful shape.

When you are playing poker with a bunch of friends, and one of your buddies gets bored and just goes all in on the next hand so he can go watch TV, is the winner of that pot a better poker player than anyone else? Or is he simply the guy that just so happened to have a pair of kings when the stupid friend decided to go all in? Same thing happened with Coppy when he traded Miller.

If's don't matter. The system is in better shape than it has been in forever. I like Coppy as a poker player.

[clvclv]

I think both of those posts are on-point responses to yours, rico. It's not "doom and gloom" to withhold apotheosis status from Coppolella a little longer, and it's not trashing the trade to comment that the Braves made a reasonable gamble, but hardly the greatest heist since Rififi.

In rico's defense, this has probably been the most remarkable system overhaul of the Braves' franchise in my lifetime (and I'm 47). I think that's what he's referring to. Sure, you can make the argument that the talent JS accrued when he stockpiled Chipper and Company way back when was as good or better, but that group wasn't acquired in this short a period of time.

[UNCBlue012]

i predict that this will go down as one of the worst trades in braves history. lol OK

[smootness]

i predict that this will go down as one of the worst trades in braves history.

Goodness

[smootness]

Especially when one considers that if not for Dave Stewart being a complete buffoon, the Braves rebuild would actually look pretty dire. Remove Swanson and Inciarte from the organization and suddenly the Braves are in pretty awful shape.

When you are playing poker with a bunch of friends, and one of your buddies gets bored and just goes all in on the next hand so he can go watch TV, is the winner of that pot a better poker player than anyone else? Or is he simply the guy that just so happened to have a pair of kings when the stupid friend decided to go all in? Same thing happened with Coppy when he traded Miller.

That's the one that accelerated the rebuild, but we'd still have the best and deepest farm in baseball without it.

And you're crazy if you think Coppy just lucked out there. He saw an idiot and played him like a fiddle. Nobody else stepped in and pulled that deal off.

[jpx7]

In rico's defense, this has probably been the most remarkable system overhaul of the Braves' franchise in my lifetime (and I'm 47). I think that's what he's referring to. Sure, you can make the argument that the talent JS accrued when he stockpiled Chipper and Company way back when was as good or better, but that group wasn't acquired in this short a period of time.

Speaking only for myself, I guess I am just not comfortable calling it a "most remarkable system overhaul" until a little more of it translates to the major-league field.

[Southcack77]

Braves had to clear a 40-man roster spot. Got a one-time highly regarded prospect in the process. Povse was, what, maybe 10-12th among the starting prospects?
There are still far too many gloom and doom people who insist on being negative in the middle of one of the most remarkable franchise turnarounds we've ever seen in ATL.

The Braves seem to draft guys like Povse every year. It's a talent. I don't think its a big deal to give him up.

[Southcack77]

I'd say it means you're a better poker player because it's you that's raking in all of the quitter's chips, not the other guys at the table.

Try another analogy.

Yeah, that was a dumbass analogy.

[chipchildress]

do we have any data that supports the notion of picking up 1st rounders when others have given up on them is any more effective than anything else?

[rico43]

There was a throw-away comment by one of the execs from the meetings that seems to indicate that Howard is balking or is having to "consider" moving back to catcher. If that's true, then I'm betting much of what they're saying about this guy is on point. He is very much at the shut-up-and-work stage of his career, and failure to do either would be grounds for letting him play in the American Association or Frontier League.

[Southcack77]

povse is really tall. guys like that take time to grow into their adult bodies. this guy has gotten better ever step along the way, from high school to uncg where he wasn't spectacular, now making his way through the minors. his most advanced stop in baseball was his best.

if they want to trade him, trade him, what have they not seen this guy progress? it's not like it's a terrible bet that he'll be good this year, getting him closer to the bigs and almost certainly increasing his value along the way.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=605428#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

oh well. hope the new guy can play...


Povse being in the deal suggests the Braves really wanted to take a gamble on Jackson specifically. It was more than clearing roster, or at least it evolved there.

[mqt]

There was a throw-away comment by one of the execs from the meetings that seems to indicate that Howard is balking or is having to "consider" moving back to catcher. If that's true, then I'm betting much of what they're saying about this guy is on point. He is very much at the shut-up-and-work stage of his career, and failure to do either would be grounds for letting him play in the American Association or Frontier League.

I know his career so far hasn't given him the right to any benefit of the doubt, but it seems quite possible that the question from the Braves was something along the lines of "do you want to continue in the OF, focus on your bat and try to get back on track quicker, or do you want to get back behind the plate, spend some time in extended and lower levels, drop some weight and maybe concede some potential with the bat?" I don't think it's unreasonable for him to weigh the options if they were given to him.

[smootness]

I know his career so far hasn't given him the right to any benefit of the doubt, but it seems quite possible that the question from the Braves was something along the lines of "do you want to continue in the OF, focus on your bat and try to get back on track quicker, or do you want to get back behind the plate, spend some time in extended and lower levels, drop some weight and maybe concede some potential with the bat?" I don't think it's unreasonable for him to weigh the options if they were given to him.

Why would he be conceding potential with the bat by moving to C?

[Hawk]

Why would he be conceding potential with the bat by moving to C?

Because the additional responsibilities required to be a successful full-time catcher take time away from a player being able to devote himself completely to other improvements (in this case, offensive growth).

[smootness]

Because the additional responsibilities required to be a successful full-time catcher take time away from a player being able to devote himself completely to other improvements (in this case, offensive growth).

Eh, I don't know that I buy that. I mean, I get it logically, but there's enough time in a day to get your work in on both.

It requires a player willing to put in the work, though, so as it pertains to Jackson, maybe you're right.

[gilesfan]

Most of the things I've read suggests there is no chance Jackson can move back to catcher.

I think there are a number of factors that affect catchers ability to hit, fine tuning the craft is probably a part of it. The toll it takes is another.

[Carp]

Especially when one considers that if not for Dave Stewart being a complete buffoon, the Braves rebuild would actually look pretty dire. Remove Swanson and Inciarte from the organization and suddenly the Braves are in pretty awful shape.

When you are playing poker with a bunch of friends, and one of your buddies gets bored and just goes all in on the next hand so he can go watch TV, is the winner of that pot a better poker player than anyone else? Or is he simply the guy that just so happened to have a pair of kings when the stupid friend decided to go all in? Same thing happened with Coppy when he traded Miller.

Give me a break. Shelby Miller coming off the season he did with 3 years of control was going net a very good return. No one forsaw what happened, but clearly we still could have netted a very good package from some other team if the D-Backs didn't pony up. May be not as good as what we got, but still a very good package.

The rebuild would still be going well regardless of that trade. We'd just be a bit further behind than we are now. But we'd still have Touki, Fried, Wisler, Folty, Newcombe, Mallex, Peterson, Ruiz, and Demerrite all from recent trades. And add all that talent to the talent we've either drafted or signed and it's still an amazingly rich and deep farm system.

[bravesfanMatt]

Give me a break. Shelby Miller coming off the season he did with 3 years of control was going net a very good return. No one forsaw what happened, but clearly we still could have netted a very good package from some other team if the D-Backs didn't pony up. May be not as good as what we got, but still a very good package.

The rebuild would still be going well regardless of that trade. We'd just be a bit further behind than we are now. But we'd still have Touki, Fried, Wisler, Folty, Newcombe, Mallex, Peterson, Ruiz, and Demerrite all from recent trades. And add all that talent to the talent we've either drafted or signed and it's still an amazingly rich and deep farm system.


Having Ender and Swanson is a blessing but we would still have 6-7 top 100 prospects without them and that is not considering that we were going to trade Shelby and we were going to get a good return. Saying our rebuild would look dire is just someone wanting attention. Very nice of you to give that.

[thethe]

Tyler Pike is the PTBNL.

Big kid with nice K numbers and low hits agaibst. But of course walks too many. Braves are real confident in their ability to develop young players.

[bravesfanMatt]

Tyler Pike LHP is the PTBNL from Seattle trade

[bravesfanMatt]

Tyler Pike is the PTBNL.

Big kid with nice K numbers and low hits agaibst. But of course walks too many. Braves are real confident in their ability to develop young players.

by seconds!!!

[thethe]

by seconds!!!

Took the day to take the old man to the hospital. I've got nothing else to do today!

[praeceps93]

Tyler Pike is the PTBNL.

Big kid with nice K numbers and low hits agaibst. But of course walks too many. Braves are real confident in their ability to develop young players.

Well that's a lot more boring than I was hoping

[bravesfanMatt]

Well that's a lot more boring than I was hoping

Agreed... was hoping for someone who swings a stick and not another big arm project.

[rawwr]

Is it just me, or do the Mariners seem to have a higher number of prospects flame out than usual?

[chop2chip]

Is it just me, or do the Mariners seem to have a higher number of prospects flame out than usual?

It's not just you. They have a heavily scrutinized player development program. It's been a problem since Jack Z ran the show which is ironic since the player development success he had in Milwaukee got him the job in the first place.

[dak]

Interesting pitcher. Maybe a higher ceiling / lower floor version of Michael Mader? I assume he'll be in the AA rotation. A lot of good stuff in the article linked below.

807328751612727297

[Southcack77]

Interesting pitcher. Maybe a higher ceiling / lower floor version of Michael Mader? I assume he'll be in the AA rotation. A lot of good stuff in the article linked below.

807328751612727297

Seems like AA would be the spot, though that seems like a place that could get crowded too.

The Braves really think they can figure out high walk rates or just don't care too much about them...

I think any kind of lefty starter upside isn't a terrible thing to pick up.

[zbhargrove]

Interesting pitcher. Maybe a higher ceiling / lower floor version of Michael Mader? I assume he'll be in the AA rotation. A lot of good stuff in the article linked below.

807328751612727297

This makes me a bit more optimistic about him.

[GovClintonTyree]

It's not just you. They have a heavily scrutinized player development program. It's been a problem since Jack Z ran the show which is ironic since the player development success he had in Milwaukee got him the job in the first place.

It's on the way to being fixed, but it was a lousy org for a lot of years. Dipoto will get it fixed, but there are a lot of stories like Pike in that system. Guys that were mishandled and have just not come anywhere near their potential.

[GovClintonTyree]

Interesting pitcher. Maybe a higher ceiling / lower floor version of Michael Mader? I assume he'll be in the AA rotation. A lot of good stuff in the article linked below.

807328751612727297

Thanks for that article. It almost sounds like the kid has a better head on his shoulders than the people who were handling him.

[chipchildress]

so the braves traded away a truly rare commodity in povse, a really tall guy who can throw pretty hard and never walked anybody while getting pretty close to the bigs in exchange for a cancer who will be out of baseball in a year and a pitcher who is basically the opposite of povse in terms of control and developmental path. just completely moronic. they have all of these pitchers and just can't help but to undervalue the **** out of them. at least this one anyway.

[Preacher]

so the braves traded away a truly rare commodity in povse, a really tall guy who can throw pretty hard and never walked anybody while getting pretty close to the bigs in exchange for a cancer who will be out of baseball in a year and a pitcher who is basically the opposite of povse in terms of control and developmental path.

Well that's certainly one way of looking at it lol

[Tapate50]

I don't totally disagree with Chip. Have always been high on Povse. I guess what kinda disgruntles me in retrospect was that we could likely have subbed someone on tap with his numbers, but not his physical profile necessarily.

[mfree80]

I don't totally disagree with Chip. Have always been high on Povse. I guess what kinda disgruntles me in retrospect was that we could likely have subbed someone on tap with his numbers, but not his physical profile necessarily.

I am pretty confident that the teams we are trading with know more about the minor leaguers they are trading for than we can read from a spreadsheet. They did their homework and wanted who they wanted. No reason to believe they would have accepted our substitute unless he was some one we would be equally reluctant to give up..

[CJ9]

If we are looking back at this trade years from now and wishing we still had Povse, then this whole rebuild is a failure anyway. We can argue about the return all we want and that's fine, but Povse is pretty replaceable in our system.

[mqt]

I don't totally disagree with Chip. Have always been high on Povse. I guess what kinda disgruntles me in retrospect was that we could likely have subbed someone on tap with his numbers, but not his physical profile necessarily.
I doubt it, honestly. Even if the Ms had rightly soured on Jackson, they weren't just going to give him away for free. Would the Mariners really have taken Matt Withrow instead? I don't think they would, and that would have to be the type of pitcher you'd sub in to make this trade better for Atlanta.

I don't think we stole Jackson or that this is a sure thing, but it is still exactly the type of deal we should be making given our relative strength at finding quality pitching prospects.

[smootness]

If we are looking back at this trade years from now and wishing we still had Povse, then this whole rebuild is a failure anyway. We can argue about the return all we want and that's fine, but Povse is pretty replaceable in our system.

Nailed it. Povse is a guy with a possible future, but he's a long shot. There's a chance he becomes something, but those chances are less than a bunch of other guys in our system.

[chipchildress]

Nailed it. Povse is a guy with a possible future, but he's a long shot. There's a chance he becomes something, but those chances are less than a bunch of other guys in our system.

139 strikeouts
29 walks

that was last season. yeah sure, he's replaceable. they're gonna replace a bunch of not walks with walks. sweet.

[chipchildress]

and a former first round pick. because you know, the braves think if they get every single former first round pick who busted a chance that one might pan out eventually.

did i mention that alex jackson is probably best suited to be a DH? oh my god this trade was so freaking awful, you guys just don't see it yet.

[GovClintonTyree]

Nailed it. Povse is a guy with a possible future, but he's a long shot. There's a chance he becomes something, but those chances are less than a bunch of other guys in our system.

Pretty sure the Mariners disagree. They saw something - Fister, most likely - and were very specific about Povse. They now consider him one of their top prospects. And if you look at results, he's done nothing to suggest otherwise.

[nsacpi]

Povse was a very good pickup by the Mariners. Not all lottery tickets are created equal. At least not when it comes to pitching prospects. I think the Cards will also be happy with Gant.

The thing that has impressed me about both is their strikeout to walk ratios. I have seen more of Gant and he has swing-and-miss stuff.

[50PoundHead]

I think the team can trade depth from their minor league pitching pool. I'm just worried about the return in both of these instances. To me, Jackson is the longest of long shots and unless they can flip Garcia at the deadline for a package equal (or better) to what they gave up to obtain him, Garcia's impending FA status probably takes him elsewhere after the season, which makes him a rental in a year we likely won't contend and a net loss on the talent balance sheet.

[smootness]

Pretty sure the Mariners disagree. They saw something - Fister, most likely - and were very specific about Povse. They now consider him one of their top prospects. And if you look at results, he's done nothing to suggest otherwise.

They also considered Jackson one of their top prospects. Their system is not good.

I'm sure they like him, just like I'm sure the Braves like him. That doesn't mean they disagree that his odds are worse than a bunch of other arms in our system.

[smootness]

139 strikeouts
29 walks

that was last season. yeah sure, he's replaceable. they're gonna replace a bunch of not walks with walks. sweet.

His K-rate in AA was 6.1 per 9 as a 22/23-year-old. That's not good and suggests he may not miss enough bats at the higher levels to be much of anything at the major league level.

I think it was a good deal for both sides. There's something there with Povse, so the Mariners, whose system is poor, decided he was worth the gamble and likely had soured on Jackson and his attitude. The Braves clearly believe there's a chance that a change of scenery and a wake-up call affects Jackson positively and that there's enough talent there to justify giving up a guy who was buried among the plethora of good pitching prospects we have.

Just because you fell in love with a specific minor league prospect doesn't mean it was a bad deal in terms of value and odds.

[clvclv]

and a former first round pick. because you know, the braves think if they get every single former first round pick who busted a chance that one might pan out eventually.

did i mention that alex jackson is probably best suited to be a DH? oh my god this trade was so freaking awful, you guys just don't see it yet.


Just for fun, exactly who do you put Povse in front of?

Teheran
Folty
Wisler
Blair
Sims
Fried
Newcomb
Weigel
Toussaint
Allard
Soroka
Sanchez
Anderson
Wentz
Muller


That's 15 Pitchers the Braves are higher on that will be ready within the next three years. When you add Swanson, Albies, Maitan, Acuna, Ruiz, Demeritte, Riley, Dustin Peterson, Minter, and the #5 pick in the 2017 draft, Povse was safely outside our Top 25 no matter how you slice it. He's exactly the definition of an "expendable" prospect.

While that doesn't mean he doesn't have a chance of becoming a useful back-end SP somewhere else, he certainly wasn't going to get that chance in Atlanta.

[bravesfanMatt]

Just for fun, exactly who do you put Povse in front of?

Teheran
Folty
Wisler
Blair
Sims
Fried
Newcomb
Weigel
Toussaint
Allard
Soroka
Sanchez
Anderson
Wentz
Muller


That's 15 Pitchers the Braves are higher on that will be ready within the next three years. When you add Swanson, Albies, Maitan, Acuna, Ruiz, Demeritte, Riley, Dustin Peterson, Minter, and the #5 pick in the 2017 draft, Povse was safely outside our Top 25 no matter how you slice it. He's exactly the definition of an "expendable" prospect.

While that doesn't mean he doesn't have a chance of becoming a useful back-end SP somewhere else, he certainly wasn't going to get that chance in Atlanta.


I don't think you are picking up what some are putting down. It is not about him becoming something, but more about what value did you sell him at. Jackson is a long, long, long shot. dude has bad attitude and major flaws in his swing. Just because you have expendable pieces, doesn't mean you have to give them away. I personally think another year of seasoning in the Minors might have bumped Povse value a bit higher.. I think we could have included him in another deal for a better return.. in the end, it probably won't matter, but I don't think it is wrong for some to criticize this trade.

[smootness]

I don't think you are picking up what some are putting down. It is not about him becoming something, but more about what value did you sell him at. Jackson is a long, long, long shot. dude has bad attitude and major flaws in his swing. Just because you have expendable pieces, doesn't mean you have to give them away. I personally think another year of seasoning in the Minors might have bumped Povse value a bit higher.. I think we could have included him in another deal for a better return.. in the end, it probably won't matter, but I don't think it is wrong for some to criticize this trade.

We didn't give him away. The value was pretty much dead even in that deal. MLB.com has Povse as their #10 prospect and had Jackson as their #6 prospect. I don't know why this argument is seen as a better argument. We didn't give Povse away, and we didn't trade him for lesser value.

[bravesfanMatt]

We didn't give him away. The value was pretty much dead even in that deal. MLB.com has Povse as their #10 prospect and had Jackson as their #6 prospect. I don't know why this argument is seen as a better argument. We didn't give Povse away, and we didn't trade him for lesser value.

two things.

1. Povse was moving UP in rankings. in 2015 he wasn't even in our top 20.. Jackson is moving in the wrong direction. So in a vacuum, yes they have equal value, but you can't disregard the fact that they were moving quickly in the opposite direction.

2. We included Whalen as well to get this "value" Whalen I think made it as high as 20ish.

So we gave up 2 top 20ish talents in a FAR superior system for a falling star that is highly ranked in an EXTREMELY weak system. I just don't see the = value IMO..

[UNCBlue012]

I'll say it now: This will go down as the greatest trade in all of Braves history.

Alex will fill out as our everyday starting catcher by 2018, he'll hit .300 each year with superb defense, 30 homers and 100 RBIs each year.

Good lord, people. I get it. Trading can be hard and sometimes you trade from your surprise to get a guy that has great upside... but it's not the end of the world. We should all grow up and enjoy the system as-is.

[zbhargrove]

They also considered Jackson one of their top prospects. Their system is not good.

I'm sure they like him, just like I'm sure the Braves like him. That doesn't mean they disagree that his odds are worse than a bunch of other arms in our system.

He wasn't one of their top prospects

[rico43]

Something big needs to happen. This trade has been broken down so much that there's nothing left.

[bravesfanMatt]

I'll say it now: This will go down as the greatest trade in all of Braves history.

Alex will fill out as our everyday starting catcher by 2018, he'll hit .300 each year with superb defense, 30 homers and 100 RBIs each year.

Good lord, people. I get it. Trading can be hard and sometimes you trade from your surprise to get a guy that has great upside... but it's not the end of the world. We should all grow up and enjoy the system as-is.

wow, did you have a flat tire today. I don't think anyone is running around screaming for Coppi's head. just simple banter between posters discussing a trade that could go either way or could go no where. Not sure where your angst is coming from.

[Russ2dollas]

two things.

1. Povse was moving UP in rankings. in 2015 he wasn't even in our top 20.. Jackson is moving in the wrong direction. So in a vacuum, yes they have equal value, but you can't disregard the fact that they were moving quickly in the opposite direction.

2. We included Whalen as well to get this "value" Whalen I think made it as high as 20ish.

So we gave up 2 top 20ish talents in a FAR superior system for a falling star that is highly ranked in an EXTREMELY weak system. I just don't see the = value IMO..

we were probably thinking hard about releasing Whalen b/c of 40 man issues. We traded two quarters for the shot at $2, knowing that the most likely scenario is 0.

[smootness]

two things.

1. Povse was moving UP in rankings. in 2015 he wasn't even in our top 20.. Jackson is moving in the wrong direction. So in a vacuum, yes they have equal value, but you can't disregard the fact that they were moving quickly in the opposite direction.

2. We included Whalen as well to get this "value" Whalen I think made it as high as 20ish.

So we gave up 2 top 20ish talents in a FAR superior system for a falling star that is highly ranked in an EXTREMELY weak system. I just don't see the = value IMO..

1. Povse still wasn't in our top 20, or at least he shouldn't have been. And even with Povse moving in the right direction and Jackson moving in the wrong direction, Jackson is still ranked higher. Thus, Povse is peaking and Jackson is bottoming out, and still Jackson's value is currently higher or at the very least similar. That's exactly when you should sell high and buy low, which is what we did.

2. Whalen's value is even less than Povse's and not enough to really make a material difference in any trade.

I will just disagree that those 2 guys are top 20ish talents in our system. And again, Jackson was ranked higher in Seattle's system than Povse now is. Trying to compare Povse in ours vs. Jackson in theirs is just a way to try to make it look different than it is.

[smootness]

He wasn't one of their top prospects

He was according to unbiased 3rd parties who do this kind of ranking.

[bravesfanMatt]

Something big needs to happen. This trade has been broken down so much that there's nothing left.

you could start a thread about the 2017 draft.. MLB came out with the early top 50

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017/?list=draft

[smootness]

you could start a thread about the 2017 draft.. MLB came out with the early top 50

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017/?list=draft

A whole bunch of college pitchers near the top. Again, Adell continues to be my favorite.

[bravesfanMatt]

A whole bunch of college pitchers near the top. Again, Adell continues to be my favorite.


Wonder why Beer is not listed? isn't he eligible?

[CJ9]

Wonder why Beer is not listed? isn't he eligible?

No, he'll be a sophomore this year and doesn't meet the age requirements. He's eligible in 2018.

[mqt]

A whole bunch of college pitchers near the top. Again, Adell continues to be my favorite.

Yep, I'd be thrilled with Adell. Love the tools, and think he could turn into a building block along with Maitan.

[smootness]

Wonder why Beer is not listed? isn't he eligible?

No. If he was, you would have heard a WHOLE lot more grumbling about sliding off the #1 pick.

[CJ9]

A whole bunch of college pitchers near the top. Again, Adell continues to be my favorite.

The blurb on him was probably the least friendly I've seen on him. Royce Lewis looks like an interesting one after reading that.

Ultimately, I just want the best player, but it'd be nice if that person was a hitter. Any college pitcher is probably going to be along the timeline of Fried, Allard, Soroka, Touki, etc. I'm a big Faedo fan because I watch him a lot, but taking a hitter would be great.