The Uggla Solution

[nsacpi]

A team can weather a bad contract with a cheap alternative who is given more playing time. We saw a bit of that this year with Schafer sharing playing time with BJ Upton.

The more serious problem is Uggla. When we traded Lowe we had to eat over two-thirds of the remaining contract. I think the proportion would be higher with Uggla. The solution to me is not necessarily to trade him, but to have a competitive solution at second where playing time is driven by performance. Unfortunately, two of the guys who could have been part of that solution, Pena and Pastornicky, are out for the season with injuries

But I think the basic idea is the right one and the one that makes the most sense for next year. We will have Pena and Pastornicky back. And La Stella should be given a long look in spring training.

A big contract to an underperforming player is obviously not a good thing. But teams in that situation have a choice to make. They can make the situation worse by allocating playing time by reputation/contract. Or they can ameliorate things by allocating playing time by performance. It is pretty obvious what we have to do next year.

[thethe]

Uggla will not be our starting second baseman next year. If he is the Braves are making a huge mistake. The guy is done and is even worse than I thought he would be this year. I am beginning to doubt the Braves can even sell him for 3 million per year.

[nsacpi]

We can survive and do well with Uggla at second. See the 2013 season.

I think the issue is what to if the decline continues.

Le'ts set aside defense for now and consider the trend in OPS:

2010 .877 (career high)
2011 .764
2012 .732
2013 .687

Now consider the alternatives. With Pena let's set aside the apparent improvement seen this year and use his career numbers. He has a career .606 OPS. Pastornicky has a career major league OPS of .619. Based on these numbers, Uggla remains the better hitter. But if you have a combination of additional decline from Uggla and what I consider plausible arguments for thinking Pena and Pastornicky can give us better production than their career averages, then you have a case for having a competitive situation with regards to playing time at second. You don't put Uggla in cold storage, but you start out 2014 giving him half the games and adjust up or down based on production.

If by mid-season, none of the internal alternatives (Uggla, Pena, Pastornicky, La Stella) are panning out then you start looking for a deadline deal.

What the club needs to do is make it clear from the get go next year that it is an open competition.

[Russ2dollas]

the only way i see us dumping Uggla is if he is part of a package for Kimbrel. Kimbrel is getting expensive. We have young players who are getting expensive.

I would explore trading Kimbrel + Uggla for a long term answer at 3B or 2B + maybe 2 B prospects.

It's going to be a team with big money who can afford Kimbrel long term. So they could afford Uggla.

I'm not sure who that trade partner is.

Kimbrel trades get the board up in arms....but I just don't see another way. Braves should act while they still have the leverage. If they don't get a good offer, then they keep one of the best closers ever, it's a win win.

[Diesel]

Sadly, Elliot Johnson would be a better alternative to Uggla this postseason it appears.

[PawPawMaxwell]

With the TV money kicking in in 14 now is the time to dump Uggla. I dont know if putting him in a package would make it easier or not. Regardless, Wren will have to eat a lot of money.
Rather than using scrubs (my term) like Pastor or Pena, I would see what it would take to get Profar from Texas. Their #1 prospect just happens to be another 2nd baseman and Kinsler is going nowhere. Kinda like Uggla but with capable performance.
Kimbrel, if it is decided to cut while on a high, Detroit would be MY prefered trade partner. Castellanos is blocked at 3rd and was moved to LF to accomodate Miggy.
Would anyone be ammenable to trading JUpton if it allowed retention of Heyward and made Freeman more affordable?

[thethe]

the only way i see us dumping Uggla is if he is part of a package for Kimbrel. Kimbrel is getting expensive. We have young players who are getting expensive.

I would explore trading Kimbrel + Uggla for a long term answer at 3B or 2B + maybe 2 B prospects.

It's going to be a team with big money who can afford Kimbrel long term. So they could afford Uggla.

I'm not sure who that trade partner is.

Kimbrel trades get the board up in arms....but I just don't see another way. Braves should act while they still have the leverage. If they don't get a good offer, then they keep one of the best closers ever, it's a win win.

I agree. THe Braves need to explore trading Kimbrel. We should still be able to get a great prospect or two and get rid of Uggla.

[stpeteirish]

Is Pena even under control, or is he a Free Agent? He's got a few years under his belt. He's probably a better option than Pastor and might just outplay Uggla as well.

Can't spend a lot of money on a guy like him, tho.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Is Pena even under control, or is he a Free Agent? He's got a few years under his belt. He's probably a better option than Pastor and might just outplay Uggla as well.

Can't spend a lot of money on a guy like him, tho.
Pena is 1st time arb eligible this winter, no history except small sample with us to warrant a significant contract especially since he is unlikely to be available til mid season.

[ChapelHillMatt]

Uggla proves to me everyday that you can't be a dead pull hitter and be successful. That's all he tries to do, he never tries to go the opposite way. I can't stand watching him. Unless a pitcher makes a mistake he can't hurt you.

[Russ2dollas]

I agree. THe Braves need to explore trading Kimbrel. We should still be able to get a great prospect or two and get rid of Uggla.

Glad someone doesn't think I'm crazy...

This is the off season to do it. Not a lot of major holes to fill. Just concentrate on getting a Kimbrel deal that sets us up of the long term. Then look at in house extensions and think about 3B and 2B after the Kimbrel deal is done and you know what you got for those guys.

The Mac thing is not going to be a big deal for Wrenn IMO. He'll make his best offer and we'll either have Mac or we'll be going Gattis/Laird/CB. Not going free agent.

Although if they sign Mac then they potentially could put CB or Gattis into a Kimbrel deal if they really wanted to get a monster deal going. Maybe Rangers if they don't get Mac.....(still think they get Mac).

[thethe]

Glad someone doesn't think I'm crazy...

This is the off season to do it. Not a lot of major holes to fill. Just concentrate on getting a Kimbrel deal that sets us up of the long term. Then look at in house extensions and think about 3B and 2B after the Kimbrel deal is done and you know what you got for those guys.

The Mac thing is not going to be a big deal for Wrenn IMO. He'll make his best offer and we'll either have Mac or we'll be going Gattis/Laird/CB. Not going free agent.

Although if they sign Mac then they potentially could put CB or Gattis into a Kimbrel deal if they really wanted to get a monster deal going. Maybe Rangers if they don't get Mac.....(still think they get Mac).

Wonder which teams would try hard for Kimbrel.

Do you think the Red Sox would trade Owens and Betts for him? That might be a trade I'd look at.

[skidlee]

Owens, Middlebrooks, and A reliever

[thethe]

Owens, Middlebrooks, and A reliever

Middlebrooks has awful plate discipline. I think he is very overrated.

[Dalyn]

Uggla has been treated like a favorite since his arrival. He needed to be benched ages ago to see if it would jolt him a little. If he doesn't go all Beltran during the playoffs, he better have some competition in spring (at the very least). Playing favorites is getting old.

[thethe]

Uggla has been treated like a favorite since his arrival. He needed to be benched ages ago to see if it would jolt him a little. If he doesn't go all Beltran during the playoffs, he better have some competition in spring (at the very least). Playing favorites is getting old.

Freddi can't be even given the option to play Uggla next year. Auction him off to the highest bidder or just DFA him. He is toast.

[PawPawMaxwell]

I personally cant agree with getting Middlebrooks.

[Hudson2]

Man I'd hate to trade Kimbrel! But if it improves us long term then u have to put the team first. I'd take all the tv money and try to lock up Heyward and Freeman. That should be our first 2 moves bc if u trade Kimbrel first then it makes our team look worse on paper and is less of a selling point to other players.

[nsacpi]

The smarter teams like the Red Sox realize that the arbitration system and market tends to overvalue even very good closers. So they let Papelbon walk. The dumber teams like Philly will go for those players.

If we want to move Kimbrel and Uggla in a package and be well compensated for it, we need a counterparty that is dumb and rich. Like Philly. Except Philly has a lot invested in their closer and second baseman.

There is only one team that is dumb and rich enough to do such a deal and has a need for a closer and second baseman. That would be the Dodgers. What would you want from the Dodgers in exchange for Kimbrel/Uggla?

Actually there might be a second team. The Tigers if they don't bring back Infante. What would you like from the Tigers?

[thethe]

Man I'd hate to trade Kimbrel! But if it improves us long term then u have to put the team first. I'd take all the tv money and try to lock up Heyward and Freeman. That should be our first 2 moves bc if u trade Kimbrel first then it makes our team look worse on paper and is less of a selling point to other players.

Bottom line is the Braves will never be able to afford Kimbrel long term. It'd be great if we were the Dodgers and Kimbrel went in the HOF as a Brave but that just isn't going to happen. If the Braves can get two long term pieces for him that is the way to go. Braves have bullpen arms in their minor league system. Obviously none of them would touch Kimbrel's level of effectiveness but you are probably talking about the difference of 2 wins over the course of a season. Plus, you get that extra 12-15 million a year and alot it to the rest of your team so you are basically cancelling out that loss. Kimbrel will not be a Brave past 2014 IMO. I hope we leverage as much value as possible and trade him this offseason.

[Hudson2]

I agree the Dodgers would b ideal but I have no clue of their farm system. I imagine it's pretty bad with all the trades they've made. For Kimbrel you would have to be blown away. And I could see the Yanks comin into play there. Especially if they lose Cano. They'd have a need for both players as well.

[thethe]

The smarter teams like the Red Sox realize that the arbitration system and market tends to overvalue even very good closers. So they let Papelbon walk. The dumber teams like Philly will go for those players.

If we want to move Kimbrel and Uggla in a package and be well compensated for it, we need a counterparty that is dumb and rich. Like Philly. Except Philly has a lot invested in their closer and second baseman.

There is only one team that is dumb and rich enough to do such a deal and has a need for a closer and second baseman. That would be the Dodgers. What would you want from the Dodgers in exchange for Kimbrel/Uggla?

Actually there might be a second team. The Tigers if they don't bring back Infante. What would you like from the Tigers?

Seager would need to be in the deal from the Dodgers. Castellanos is really the only valueable player in the Tigers farm and I don't think they want to trade him.

[Heyward]

Glad someone doesn't think I'm crazy...

This is the off season to do it. Not a lot of major holes to fill. Just concentrate on getting a Kimbrel deal that sets us up of the long term. Then look at in house extensions and think about 3B and 2B after the Kimbrel deal is done and you know what you got for those guys.

The Mac thing is not going to be a big deal for Wrenn IMO. He'll make his best offer and we'll either have Mac or we'll be going Gattis/Laird/CB. Not going free agent.

Although if they sign Mac then they potentially could put CB or Gattis into a Kimbrel deal if they really wanted to get a monster deal going. Maybe Rangers if they don't get Mac.....(still think they get Mac).

I've mentioned trading Kimbrel multiple times and gotten bashed for it.

No idea what we could trade him for.

Regards to Uggla, I'm not sure without eating most of the deal they could trade him.

[PawPawMaxwell]

I know this thread is about Kimbrel but in reality it all comes back to McCann.

If McCann resigns then you can do a lot of things to fill the void. Gattis is a HUGE trade chip. If Mac doesnt resign then paying someone to take Uggla becomes easier. Putting Uggla and Kimbrel in a package diminishes your return.

Queston is which teams would need Uggla even if Wren eats a chunk of money. Toronto? LA? NYY?
Which teams would have real interest in Kimbrel? Detroit, NYY, Boston? I doubt he would be traded to NL team.
Who would need JUP. Texas maybe?
Tho before I traded JUp I would want to make sure Freeman and/or Heyward would extend.

[Dalyn]

I know this thread is about Kimbrel but in reality it all comes back to McCann.



:Alone:

[nsacpi]

I thought it was about Uggla. To be honest the fancy circuitous stuff involving Kimbrel and others, while fun to bat around, is pretty unlikely to happen.

We were lucky to find someone to eat $5M or whatever it was of Lowe's salary. I don't get the feeling that the front office's patience with Uggla has run out the way it did with Lowe. But that might change with a poor post-season. I'd say the odds right now are better than 50-50 that Uggla will be back next year. But I think there will be an emphasis on giving the in-house alternatives at second more of an opportunity.

[Garmel]

Btw, I found out that La Stella would be eligible for the playoffs since he was in the organization before Sept 1. That would be another option if Uggla continues to struggle and we don't think Elliot is the answer either.

[PawPawMaxwell]

I thought it was about Uggla. To be honest the fancy circuitous stuff involving Kimbrel and others, while fun to bat around, is pretty unlikely to happen.

We were lucky to find someone to eat $5M or whatever it was of Lowe's salary. I don't get the feeling that the front office's patience with Uggla has run out the way it did with Lowe. But that might change with a poor post-season. I'd say the odds right now are better than 50-50 that Uggla will be back next year. But I think there will be an emphasis on giving the in-house alternatives at second more of an opportunity.
Yeah, I meant Uggla but just couldnt keep from typing kimbrel.

[Enscheff]

Lowe was traded becuase he was horrible AND there were better options in the system. Uggla is horrible, but no matter how you spin it, Pastor and Pena are not clear cut upgrades over him. I doubt Wren eats much money to trade him, and I doubt even more he waters down the return on Kimbrel by packaging them together.

I do agree that this is the offseason to sell high on Kimbrel, but only if someone is willing to make a significant offer. Wren can probably afford him next year, so salary constraints don't really come into play until after the 2014 season.

I also have a feeling that if Mac is signed long term we will magically see the NL adopt the DH before his contract expires.

[Braves1976]

I thought it was about Uggla. To be honest the fancy circuitous stuff involving Kimbrel and others, while fun to bat around, is pretty unlikely to happen.

We were lucky to find someone to eat $5M or whatever it was of Lowe's salary. I don't get the feeling that the front office's patience with Uggla has run out the way it did with Lowe. But that might change with a poor post-season. I'd say the odds right now are better than 50-50 that Uggla will be back next year. But I think there will be an emphasis on giving the in-house alternatives at second more of an opportunity.

I agree, the talk about trading Kimbrel isn't realistic at this point. It's not going to happen anytime soon. If we do trade Kimbrel in the future it will be at least a year down the road, if not longer.

As far as Uggla goes, I tend to agree but my personal opinion is that it would be a mistake. In other words, I'd argue that we need to do whatever we can to move Uggla this off-season. We waited too long on Lowe, but thankfully someone still did us the favor of saving us 5 million his last year. If we don't move Uggla this off-season it may prove a bigger mistake.

[nsacpi]

I agree, the talk about trading Kimbrel isn't realistic at this point. It's not going to happen anytime soon. If we do trade Kimbrel in the future it will be at least a year down the road, if not longer.

As far as Uggla goes, I tend to agree but my personal opinion is that it would be a mistake. In other words, I'd argue that we need to do whatever we can to move Uggla this off-season. We waited too long on Lowe, but thankfully someone still did us the favor of saving us 5 million his last year. If we don't move Uggla this off-season it may prove a bigger mistake.

I think it depends on what assumption we make as to the "relationship" between Fredi and Uggla, and Fredi's ability to ease Dan out of the lineup. We saw late last year he was willing to do this. But there were some injuries and Dan ended up playing everyday again.

If you assume Fredi can put aside his feelings and just do the right thing then we can wait.

If you don't think Fredi can do this then the FO will have to intervene by trading/releasing Uggla. Even under this scenario, however, there is the question of whether the best time to do this is the offseason or middle of the season. I can see arguments for both.

[jpx7]

Rather than using scrubs (my term) like Pastor or Pena

Your term, but accurate in the context of the capacity of either to be starting-calibre second-basemen.

[nsacpi]

Whether they ultimately turn out to be scrubs or not there are some internal options that I think we should turn to first. One of them might turn out to be the answer, which will save us the cost of finding an external solution for second. Could be La Stella, could be Pena, could be Pastornicky.

This is one reason why I would prefer not to trade Uggla in the off-season. I think an off-season trade would lead to acquire an external second base option. We might ultimately have to do this anyway, but I'd prefer giving the three internal options listed above half a season to show what they got.

[jpx7]

Personally, I think: LaStella >>> Pastornicky > Peña.

[Braves1976]

I think it depends on what assumption we make as to the "relationship" between Fredi and Uggla, and Fredi's ability to ease Dan out of the lineup. We saw late last year he was willing to do this. But there were some injuries and Dan ended up playing everyday again.

If you assume Fredi can put aside his feelings and just do the right thing then we can wait.

If you don't think Fredi can do this then the FO will have to intervene by trading/releasing Uggla. Even under this scenario, however, there is the question of whether the best time to do this is the offseason or middle of the season. I can see arguments for both.

Well, it's no secret that Fredi and Uggla have a "father and son" type relationship. If that weren't the case Uggla would've found himself hitting 8th by now, IMO. If in St. Louis when La Russa was still managing he'd probably even seen time hitting 9th (assuming he's in the line-up).

[PawPawMaxwell]

Your term, but accurate in the context of the capacity of either to be starting-calibre second-basemen.
Just trying to be gracious. Never know if their mothers are reading these forums.

[Dalyn]

Figured it out! Only play him in games like the one today.

[Braves1976]

Personally, I think: LaStella >>> Pastornicky > Peña.

I'm not so sure about that, but I figure between the three (La Stella, Pastornicky and Pena) we're bound to get more production than from Uggla, esp. once you factor in the defense. I also expect Uggla's defense to continue to decline.

To sum it up, I expect at least two of the three proving a decent platoon at second.

[nsacpi]

I'm not so sure about that, but I figure between the three (La Stella, Pastornicky and Pena) we're bound to get more production than from Uggla, esp. once you factor in the defense. I also expect Uggla's defense to continue to decline.

To sum it up, I expect at least two of the three proving a decent platoon at second.

I think we need to keep an open mind about those three. Pena's career numbers are poor, but over an extended period (winter ball, spring training, regular season) over the past nine months, he's performed at a higher level. Maybe just a hot streak, but it has been going on long enough to raise the possibility he has improved.

As for La Stella and Pastornicky, they are young enough that they have room for further growth. I hope the front office will keep an open mind and let them compete for playing time before spending resources on an external solution.

[Julio3000]

Muscle Milk dissolved in Axe body spray?

[Braves1976]

I think we need to keep an open mind about those three. Pena's career numbers are poor, but over an extended period (winter ball, spring training, regular season) over the past nine months, he's performed at a higher level. Maybe just a hot streak, but it has been going on long enough to raise the possibility he has improved.

As for La Stella and Pastornicky, they are young enough that they have room for further growth. I hope the front office will keep an open mind and let them compete for playing time before spending resources on an external solution.

Agreed, we should keep an open mind about them. Pena needs to just bat left handed, he seems to me a left handed hitter that wrongly thinks himself a switch hitter. I could see him and Pastornicky or Pastornicky and La Stella making a decent platoon at second. Further, it seems we are higher on Pastornicky than most on this forum. I think some wrongly assume he'll be a bad defender at second because he is so bad at short. But thus far his DRS at second is better than Pena's (while a small sample his defense at second was also fine in the minors).

Personally, I like the speed Pastornicky brings, if he can hit .275-.300 he has the speed to steal 30-40 bases (depending on where he hits in the line-up). This is also why batting average should be considered with him more than simply OPS (same goes for other stolen base threats). Hopefully the knee injury doesn't take away from his speed.

[thethe]

I'd be extremely disappointed if LaStella isn't given a chance to win the second base job out of spring training. Not sure what else he needs to show at the minor league level.

[Braves1976]

I'd be extremely disappointed if LaStella isn't given a chance to win the second base job out of spring training. Not sure what else he needs to show at the minor league level.

If Uggla is still here, I think he'd need to do more than have a great spring to win the job. I could see both Pastornicky and La Stella hitting better than Uggla in Spring Training. But both are not likely to make the team if Uggla's still here. La Stella not being on the 40-man will be held against him too.

[nsacpi]

Realistically the three "alternatives" will be competing in spring training for the chance to be the one splitting playing time with Uggla during the regular season. The only situations where I don't see that happening is an injury to Uggla or a horrendous spring training on his part.

I do think Uggla will be on a fairly short leash. I could see him being released/designated for assignment if he isn't producing by the end of May.

[Braves1976]

Realistically the three "alternatives" will be competing in spring training for the chance to be the one splitting playing time with Uggla during the regular season. The only situations where I don't see that happening is an injury to Uggla or a horrendous spring training on his part.

I do think Uggla will be on a fairly short leash. I could see him being released/designated for assignment if he isn't producing by the end of May.

I agree with you on the first paragraph, but I don't see him being released or DFA'd if he is struggling again by May. However, I could see him losing his regular starting role by then if not before hand. This of course assumes he's not moved this off-season (which is certainly what I am hoping happens).

[striker42]

There are 17 second basemen in the majors with enough ABs to qualify. Dan Uggla ranks dead last in batting average by a lot. He's hitting 31 points lower than the Cub's Darwin Barney.

He also ranks dead last in WAR with a -0.6. Also trailing Darwin Barney's -0.3.

He ranks a only slightly less embarrassing 15th out of 17 in OPS, eclipsing only Houston's Jose Altuve and the aforementioned Darwin Barney.

Uggla has just 76 hits. By comparison, the Cardinals Matt Carpenter has 169. Aaron Hill has 75 in 161 fewer ABs.

People tried to defend Uggla last year saying second base is a scarce position and that Uggla wasn't really that bad. There's no defending him this year. He's among the worst at his position in the game.

[Braves1976]

There are 17 second basemen in the majors with enough ABs to qualify. Dan Uggla ranks dead last in batting average by a lot. He's hitting 31 points lower than the Cub's Darwin Barney.

He also ranks dead last in WAR with a -0.6. Also trailing Darwin Barney's -0.3.

He ranks a only slightly less embarrassing 15th out of 17 in OPS, eclipsing only Houston's Jose Altuve and the aforementioned Darwin Barney.

Uggla has just 76 hits. By comparison, the Cardinals Matt Carpenter has 169. Aaron Hill has 75 in 161 fewer ABs.

People tried to defend Uggla last year saying second base is a scarce position and that Uggla wasn't really that bad. There's no defending him this year. He's among the worst at his position in the game.

Good points. It's also good to see you posting again Striker.

[Braves1976]

BTW, La Stella just had a ball go between his legs to tie up M-Braves playoff game against Mobile. It was even ruled a hit shockingly, talk about hometown scoring. I am sure Simmons would like to have such support in Atlanta.

That said, I still have a hard time believing La Stella could be worse defensively than Uggla.

[zitothebrave]

Trading Kimbrel :facepalm:

Anyone who wants to trade him before 2015-2016 offseason is foolish.

Winning teams don't trade once in a generation closers. If we were the Twins, or someone like that who didn't look like they'd be winning anytime soon or ever then yeah you trade Kimbrel. But winning teams don't trade closers.

[yeezus]

There are 17 second basemen in the majors with enough ABs to qualify. Dan Uggla ranks dead last in batting average by a lot. He's hitting 31 points lower than the Cub's Darwin Barney.

He also ranks dead last in WAR with a -0.6. Also trailing Darwin Barney's -0.3.

He ranks a only slightly less embarrassing 15th out of 17 in OPS, eclipsing only Houston's Jose Altuve and the aforementioned Darwin Barney.

Uggla has just 76 hits. By comparison, the Cardinals Matt Carpenter has 169. Aaron Hill has 75 in 161 fewer ABs.

People tried to defend Uggla last year saying second base is a scarce position and that Uggla wasn't really that bad. There's no defending him this year. He's among the worst at his position in the game.

And that's just his offense.

[Braves1976]

Trading Kimbrel :facepalm:

Anyone who wants to trade him before 2015-2016 offseason is foolish.

Winning teams don't trade once in a generation closers. If we were the Twins, or someone like that who didn't look like they'd be winning anytime soon or ever then yeah you trade Kimbrel. But winning teams don't trade closers.

Agreed. But I didn't feel the need to really debate the issue since Kimbrel is going no where this off-season. It's fantasy land stuff this talk of trading Kimbrel this off-season.

[jsebe10]

You all do realize that Kimbrel is from Alabama and grew up a die hard Braves fan, right? How can any of you speak intelligently about the type of money he will demand? Honestly. And please keep those ridiculous pipe dream trades to yourselves. " I'd do babe Ruth , Lou Gerig, and Roger Dorn for Kimbrel"...,listen to yourselves.

[Teheran_49]

I'd be extremely disappointed if LaStella isn't given a chance to win the second base job out of spring training. Not sure what else he needs to show at the minor league level.

As you can see I completely agree. His numbers are very impressive and what else does the guy have to prove? He's everything Uggla is not and exactly what we need in this line up. How do we get rid of Uggla is the question? I'd hate to leave La Stella in AAA while he's proven that he's pretty damn good at the plate to say the least. If he tears up the AFL I think it should be a slam dunk that he would our 2b for next year though who will take Uggla?

[thethe]

If Uggla replacement is a league min player than we could just DFA him and it wouldn't matter. I'm sure the Braves could save a couple of million dollars though. Would a team take Uggla for two years six million in total? Maybe.....

[50PoundHead]

I believe my feelings on Uggla were made clear in a previous thread about him. I want him out of Atlanta badly. There are some stat-hounds that defend him as a three-outcome guy who can still put a charge in one from time-to-time, but his decline is pronounced and not being a guy blessed with much athleticism, the well for him isn't very deep when it comes to making adjustments. I thought he was coming around earlier in the year, but he can't seem to keep going with any kind of consistency anymore. Defensively, people can metric the guy all he wants to prove he's not as "bad as he looks," but even after that exercise, he's pretty bad.

The only bright side in this is that there may be some market for him as a DH in the AL. Don't get me wrong, we'll be eating multiple millions in salary if we move him, but there will likely be more of a market for him than there was for Lowe.

As for Kimbrel, I agree with some that closers--especially average-to-good ones--can be overrated. That said, great closers are extremely valuable. You build your bullpens from the 9th inning backwards and if you have an anchor for the 9th, things fall in place a lot easier. There's also a psychological edge in having a great closer that is impossible to quantify, but is still there. The problem for the Braves is that a lot of younger guys are going to get more expensive at the same time and that will make any decision on Kimbrel difficult. No question that he's on top right now and there would be a huge market for him if the decision is made to take offers.

[nsacpi]

The Yankees are paying almost $14M of Vernon Wells' salary this year and next. So anything is possible. I think our best hope would be a similar situation where a team that suffers some key injuries becomes desperate and does something stupid. It is a waiting game. But until then, I think management has to squarely face the issue of who gets playing time at second.

[50PoundHead]

I agree. It's a waiting game, but a team in search of a bat (especially one in a hitter-friendly park) may fork over something for Uggla.

[Heyward]

Trading Kimbrel :facepalm:

Anyone who wants to trade him before 2015-2016 offseason is foolish.

Winning teams don't trade once in a generation closers. If we were the Twins, or someone like that who didn't look like they'd be winning anytime soon or ever then yeah you trade Kimbrel. But winning teams don't trade closers.

Closers are overvalued, I've said before if Kimbrel would sign an extension in the 8-10 million range, I'd love to keep him.

Assuming that doesn't happen, I'd listen to offers and see if any team bites.

[emk418]

Anything that results in Uggla not being on the Braves next year I'm in favor of. I would eat 90% of his salary to make it work. I would even release him worst case.

[bravebonebook]

Please just let him end up in the AL. Not only because some team over there would also want him as a DH BUT so that he won't be able to revive his career, play Atlanta several times and beat them like many ex-Braves do (thankfully, not as many in recent years)! The thought of Struggla remembering how to hit while playing for a NL team like the Dodgers, Nats, Brewers, et. al. would just enfuriate me more than anything (the dreaded Reggie Sanders Syndrome)! :mad:

[JohnAdcox]

So, if in Bizarro World, the Braves were to Designate Uggla for Assignment, any team could claim, but would have to take on the full salary, yes? If that happens, uh, yay. If not, Kawakami his butt to Mississippi and hope he retires. He truly seems like a great dude, but honestly, I am to that point. Bring on Rev or La Stella.

[rico43]

Uggla cannot be justified any longer. With Janish at second, you have better defense and at least someone who can bunt; with Pastor at second, you have OK defense with decent room to grow as a hitter; less so with Elliott J. With La Stella, you have a dropoff in defense in exchange for a bat with all-star potential. The Brooks Conrad lesson remains in the Braves' consciousness, so it is far from a given that he gets a legit shot at the job.

I think Uggla is a DFA and let the chips fall where they may.

[Runnin]

Oh how a couple of years changes everything. We could really use an Infante type now.

[thethe]

Oh how a couple of years changes everything. We could really use an Infante type now.

Amazing how that deal was unanimously looked at as a big win for the Braves. Funny how perception can change over time.

[GovClintonTyree]

Amazing how that deal was unanimously looked at as a big win for the Braves. Funny how perception can change over time.

I know I liked it. I don't think he's gotten old, I think he's gotten pull happy.

[GovClintonTyree]

So, if in Bizarro World, the Braves were to Designate Uggla for Assignment, any team could claim, but would have to take on the full salary, yes? If that happens, uh, yay. If not, Kawakami his butt to Mississippi and hope he retires. He truly seems like a great dude, but honestly, I am to that point. Bring on Rev or La Stella.

I still hold out a candle, but it's flickering. I was really hoping it was his eyes.

[Julio3000]

I certainly was happy about it. We really needed a RH power bat. We thought the last couple of years of the deal might be painful. This, though . . .

[nsacpi]

For next year, the club needs to make it clear that it will be a competitive situation for playing time at second.

For this year, the injuries to Pena and Pastornicky have reduced our options. We really have only Elliot Johnson, with his career .587 OPS.

The alarming thing is that Uggla has put up an OPS of .530 in the second half (136 plate appearances). This means that Johnson might in fact be the superior option, especially when you take account defense and baserunning..

I think we need to give Johnson a couple starts a week to keep him sharp in case Uggla does not improve over the next couple weeks. The Uggla from the first half of this year while disappointing was acceptable. He had an .738 OPS in the first half. I'd be thrilled with that for the rest of the season and post-season from him. But we have to be prepared for the possibility that he doesn't pull out of this latest funk and might have to go with Johnson in the playoffs.

Fredi has to do what is best for the team. In 2011, he sat Heyward in favor of Constanza. He played Ross over McCann in the wild card game last year. I hope he will be similarly clear-eyed in looking at whether Uggla is the best guy for us at second come the playoffs.

[Hawk]

Amazing how that deal was unanimously looked at as a big win for the Braves. Funny how perception can change over time.

Fortunately, aside from money lost and the excessive lack of production at 2B for the past three years, we aren't exactly looking at any real loss in terms of the players/prospects given up to acquire Ugh. I think many of us would've given more (Minor?) to bag Uggla at the time -- his '10 numbers are kinda mouth-watering, and we were getting him in his 'prime.'

To me, Dan is kind of like Nate McLouth - a guy with a lot of potential, a gamer, that you want to give every chance possible. He'll probably have a brief career renaissance in a year or two outside of ATL, then head off into the sunset with $75MM.

[zitothebrave]

Amazing how that deal was unanimously looked at as a big win for the Braves. Funny how perception can change over time.

Perception really doesn't change it too much. Sure it didn't wind up being a complete and total W for the Braves. We knew Infante would do well there, but this is the first year that Omar has for sure outplayed Uggla, and Mike Dunn is a reliever, him being on the team would only have meant longer wait for guys like Avilan and Wood to get their shots.

We traded 1 year of Infante and a reliever for Uggla, it was a smart trade, wound up that we were on the losing end of the trade in the end, but heck that can happen. Same deal as the McLouth trade. Pittsburgh seems like they now have the better end since Locke is doing well, but at the time it was a no brainer. Sometimes you get shocking wins, sometimes you get no brainer wins (Horacio for Soriano) sometimes you get risky wins or losses, sometimes you get no brainers that turn to losses. If you can go back in time, you still would make the McLouth and Uggla trades because the odds of them collapsing as hard as they did (and in reality until this year Uggla didn't collapse) is slimmer than the odds they'll maintain.

Some trades you can look back on and wonder if they're worth it, JD Drew being one (I think JS foolishly assumed that Drew would take a discount to stay in Atlanta as a Georgia native), LaRoche leaving Atlanta being arguably the biggest (leading to the infamous Teixeira trade, but if we had LaRoche we don't make that trade anyway) then of course seperate from the LaRoche trade, why make that move when we had other holes as well. And then of course the shipping off Teixeira the following season.

I mean to be honest if we weren't a not very good team the Tex trade could be viewed in a different light. He rocked for us in the second half of 2007 and basically in his year with Atlanta hit basically .300/.400/.550 cannot complain about that at all, but as a not great team it was a bad move.

[nsacpi]

Perception really doesn't change it too much. Sure it didn't wind up being a complete and total W for the Braves. We knew Infante would do well there, but this is the first year that Omar has for sure outplayed Uggla, and Mike Dunn is a reliever, him being on the team would only have meant longer wait for guys like Avilan and Wood to get their shots.

We traded 1 year of Infante and a reliever for Uggla, it was a smart trade, wound up that we were on the losing end of the trade in the end, but heck that can happen. Same deal as the McLouth trade. Pittsburgh seems like they now have the better end since Locke is doing well, but at the time it was a no brainer. Sometimes you get shocking wins, sometimes you get no brainer wins (Horacio for Soriano) sometimes you get risky wins or losses, sometimes you get no brainers that turn to losses. If you can go back in time, you still would make the McLouth and Uggla trades because the odds of them collapsing as hard as they did (and in reality until this year Uggla didn't collapse) is slimmer than the odds they'll maintain.

Some trades you can look back on and wonder if they're worth it, JD Drew being one (I think JS foolishly assumed that Drew would take a discount to stay in Atlanta as a Georgia native), LaRoche leaving Atlanta being arguably the biggest (leading to the infamous Teixeira trade, but if we had LaRoche we don't make that trade anyway) then of course seperate from the LaRoche trade, why make that move when we had other holes as well. And then of course the shipping off Teixeira the following season.

I mean to be honest if we weren't a not very good team the Tex trade could be viewed in a different light. He rocked for us in the second half of 2007 and basically in his year with Atlanta hit basically .300/.400/.550 cannot complain about that at all, but as a not great team it was a bad move.

Whenever you trade prospects for established players there is the risk that the prospect will turn out better than expected. I'm sure the Angels didn't expect Segura to turn out to be so good when they gave him as part of the package for 2 months of Greinke. You need to be careful about making those deals because some of them will come back to bite you. The fact there is uncertainty as to which prospects will pan out and which won't doesn't mean the GM doesn't have to make an accounting of probabilities and expected value. In the case of the Uggla trade though we gave up major leaguers. There is uncertainty about major leaguers too, as Mr. Uggla has reminded us.

[yeezus]

THe solution for Uggla is to get him Lasik surgery. After that, he will be teh dominate.

[Teheran_49]

Uggla cannot be justified any longer. With Janish at second, you have better defense and at least someone who can bunt; with Pastor at second, you have OK defense with decent room to grow as a hitter; less so with Elliott J. With La Stella, you have a dropoff in defense in exchange for a bat with all-star potential. The Brooks Conrad lesson remains in the Braves' consciousness, so it is far from a given that he gets a legit shot at the job.

I think Uggla is a DFA and let the chips fall where they may.

Rico, have you seen La Stella play defense? I know the consensus is that he's not that great defensively but is it on par with Uggla or is it so bad that Uggla looks like a GG next to him? I mean the guy is young and scouts have said the same for many players and yet they improved if they work at it. I don't know much about La Stella other than the kid can flat out rake. La Stella's fielding percentage isn't bad at all though I know it doesn't tell the whole story but it's a lot better than Pastornicky's and I love Pastornicky as well. I think Pastor could end up being a Mark Derosa type player for us and hopefully the organization feels the same and I was extremely disappointed when he went down like he did because I think he would've shined at 2B.

I know La Stella will be a work in progress but he's still very young and too me he seems like the logical guy to play 2B for us. His numbers are just incredible and he has a career OPS of .900 in the 3 years he's been drafted. I'm sure FW and Co. know what they have in La Stella and if he impresses in the AFL I do believe he will be given every chance to win the 2B job in 2014.

[gtcway]

I hope we're not having this same discussion about BJ next year this time.

[Dalyn]

I hope we're not having this same discussion about BJ next year this time.

It is already a different discussion. Fredi treats him the opposite of Uggla.

[Gary82]

This is a post inspired by striker's


So, I looked on fangraphs and ranked the second basemen in all of baseball. There are 16 qualifying (plate appearances) second basemen.

Uggla's rankings

wOBA 14th
wRC+ 14th
ISO 3rd (LOL)
BB % 1st
K % 1st (very very bad) Uggla's K percentage is 30.9, the next highest is 21.8
fWAR 14th

[Dalyn]

This is a post inspired by striker's


So, I looked on fangraphs and ranked the second basemen in all of baseball. There are 16 qualifying (plate appearances) second basemen.

Uggla's rankings

wOBA 14th
wRC+ 14th
ISO 3rd (LOL)
BB % 1st
K % 1st (very very bad) Uggla's K percentage is 30.9, the next highest is 21.8
fWAR 14th

Really highlights how rarely he puts the ball in play.

[Gary82]

13.9 percent of the time he walks, and 30.9 precent of the time he strikes out. So, 44.8 percent of the time he doesn't put the ball in play at all. Nearly HALF of his at bats require no defense.

[Gary82]

I tried to find somebody who didn't put the ball in play that much.

Barry Bonds in 2004 had a BB percentage of 37.6 and a K percentage of 6.6 resulting in 44.2 percent of his at bats where he didn't put the ball in play.

So there ya go. I just compared Dan Uggla to Barry Bonds. Good day.

[cajunrevenge]

We just need to find a way to slip some drugs into him so he gets suspended. Hopefully Bud ARods him and we get off the hook for his salary.

[Dalyn]

I tried to find somebody who didn't put the ball in play that much.

Barry Bonds in 2004 had a BB percentage of 37.6 and a K percentage of 6.6 resulting in 44.2 percent of his at bats where he didn't put the ball in play.

So there ya go. I just compared Dan Uggla to Barry Bonds. Good day.

I am sure that is not the only similarities one could find.


http://ts4.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.4814702423509527&pid=15.1



http://ts1.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.4527682663744568&pid=15.1

[Gary82]

I am sure that is not the only similarities one could find.


They're both black? :YDS:

[Dalyn]

They're both black? :YDS:

Impossible. Fredi likes Uggla.

[Gary82]

How does Bill Shanks feel about Uggla?

[Dalyn]

How does Bill Shanks feel about Uggla?

He recently said that Uggla should be considered as one possibility to take over as team leader (when Hudson hurt himself).

[yeezus]

How does Bill Shanks feel about Uggla?

That depends, did we decide if he was black or white yet?

[Dalyn]

That depends, did we decide if he was black or white yet?

I think this is part of the decision process.

[yeezus]

I think this is part of the decision process.

So this the classic "what came first, owl or the egg" game.

[Dalyn]

So this the classic "what came first, owl or the egg" game.

Pretty much.

[zitothebrave]

That depends, did we decide if he was black or white yet?

You tell me

http://www.hellocosplay.com/images/michael-jackson/michael-jackson-black-or-white-3.jpg

[yeezus]

is he on the left or right?

[Dalyn]

Fredi talking about Uggla (link). (http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130907&content_id=59855724&notebook_id=59856494&vkey=notebook_atl&c_id=atl)


Yep. He compares Uggla to Utely (and makes it sound like they are basically the same hitter, outside of average). You know, the (0.9 WAR) 85 OPS+ to the (3.4 WAR) 122 OPS+. What is with his Uggla fascination?

[thethe]

I understand backing a player while he struggles. That is the Bobby way and all but you can go overboard a bit. This is just absurd now.

[zitothebrave]

I understand backing a player while he struggles. That is the Bobby way and all but you can go overboard a bit. This is just absurd now.

Who's a realistic option who's better than Uggla? That's the problem when we're dealing with Uggla and Bossman, our backups are bums. If Justin, Freddie, or Mac were to struggle we have a bunch of guys who can step in. But for Bossman and Uggla we have Janish, Elliot Johnson, and Schafer, who have career wOBA of .261 .260 and .285 respectively. They all suck. So our choice is to play someone who's playing slightly better now (though not much) and have no upside or play the much more talented guys with a much better track record and hope they get things turned around. I vote for the latter.

[PawPawMaxwell]

We all know that Liberty is totally unconcerned about the Braves so the question is: Do you think they or anyone else would be upset if Uggla was simply released or DFA?

[nsacpi]

We have the components for a productive platoon combination at second:

La Stella in AA had an OPS of .946 against righties and .754 against lefties.

Pastornicky in AAA was more neutral with an OPS of .743 against righties and .758 against lefties

[Gary82]

We all know that Liberty is totally unconcerned about the Braves so the question is: Do you think they or anyone else would be upset if Uggla was simply released or DFA?

Every day that passes by, the more probable this action becomes. I don't think they'll DFA him during the season. I expect changes this offseason, though.

[nsacpi]

Every day that passes by, the more probable this action becomes. I don't think they'll DFA him during the season. I expect changes this offseason, though.

At some point next year, the front office might conclude that Fredi is not capable managing the situation right and it is be better to just take care of the matter.

[50PoundHead]

At some point next year, the front office might conclude that Fredi is not capable managing the situation right and it is be better to just take care of the matter.

Do you think Wren is any less unrealistic about Uggla than Fredi? Wren finally bit the bullet on Lowe and Kawakami, so he's not immune to admitting an error and moving on. I guess I'll have to see it to believe it with Uggla.

[Strike3urout]

Fredi talking about Uggla (link). (http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130907&content_id=59855724¬ebook_id=59856494&vkey=notebook_atl&c_id=atl)


Yep. He compares Uggla to Utely (and makes it sound like they are basically the same hitter, outside of average). You know, the (0.9 WAR) 85 OPS+ to the (3.4 WAR) 122 OPS+. What is with his Uggla fascination?

Funny how Fredi feels the need to justify himself for playing Dan:

"I wrote down both lines and asked my coaches, 'Who's the other guy?' I even said it was another second baseman in the [National League] East.

"They finally got it."

[Enscheff]

At this point you dance with the one that brought ya'. You are crazy if you think it's wise to ditch Uggla and go into the postseason with Pastor, EJ, or a guy from AA at 2B.

The bright side to Uggla is that there is a small chance he hits 2 HRs and singlehandedly wins a playoff game. That one event would make it worth putting up with his whole season of suck, and is something nobody else on the roster capable of playing 2B has a chance to provide.

The only starter with any real chance of being benched in October is BJ, and that's only if Gattis or Schafer are hot at the end of the year. BJ will be given every possible chance to show a pulse this season because he is another guy that can potentially win a playoff game all by himself.

[nsacpi]

Freddi going with Elliot Johnson at second for the second consecutive game. Small miracle.

[Julio3000]

Yo, I know that Uggla is just awful.

But Elliot Johnson? For reals?

Over 677 MLB PAs, he's been significantly worse than Uggla has been this year.

[nsacpi]

Yo, I know that Uggla is just awful.

But Elliot Johnson? For reals?

Over 677 MLB PAs, he's been significantly worse than Uggla has been this year.

But not worse than the Uggla of August and September. That's really the issue. The Uggla of the first half of this year would do just fine.

Uggla OPS in the first half: .738
Uggla OPS so far in the second half: .533

See the problem?

[Julio3000]

I get that. But thinking that Uggla's suckage may not be permanent and irreversible is no more foolish than thinking that Elliot Johnson is a productive MLB player, right?

[nsacpi]

I get that. But thinking that Uggla's suckage may not be permanent and irreversible is no more foolish than thinking that Elliot Johnson is a productive MLB player, right?

My view is over a period of months or the next year or so, Uggla is very likely to out-produce Elliot Johnson. But as we head into the playoffs, I'm not so sure he would be the right guy. You have to look at things differently and manage differently in a five or seven game series. You have to put more weight on who's hot and who's not and less weight on things like pedigree and career track record. Look at how Bochy was willing to take Lincecum out of his starting rotation last year. That's what you have to do in a short series. You have to approach things differently.

Right now Johnson is playing over his head a bit, and Uggla is in a terrible slump. Maybe that changes over the next three weeks, maybe not.

[Julio3000]

Johnson playing over his head = has gotten a handful of hits.

[The Chosen One]

Johnson playing over his head = has gotten a handful of hits.

Sad part is, even as someone who's sticking with Uggla, that's an upgrade over Dan.

[tvsportscaster]

This should not be a surprise. If you think back to last year, when Uggla struggled you saw Fredi bench him for a few games down the stretch.

[Dalyn]

Funny how Fredi feels the need to justify himself for playing Dan:

"I wrote down both lines and asked my coaches, 'Who's the other guy?' I even said it was another second baseman in the [National League] East.

"They finally got it."

Right? I didn't want to pile on by mentioning that part, but I am glad someone did. It is SILLY AS HELL that he plays games with the coaches to justify favoritism.

[Braves1976]

My view is over a period of months or the next year or so, Uggla is very likely to out-produce Elliot Johnson. But as we head into the playoffs, I'm not so sure he would be the right guy. You have to look at things differently and manage differently in a five or seven game series. You have to put more weight on who's hot and who's not and less weight on things like pedigree and career track record. Look at how Bochy was willing to take Lincecum out of his starting rotation last year. That's what you have to do in a short series. You have to approach things differently.

Right now Johnson is playing over his head a bit, and Uggla is in a terrible slump. Maybe that changes over the next three weeks, maybe not.

We should consider the defensive decline too. Uggla continues to cost us runs on defense, he was at -14 DRS a week ago. Now he's at -17 DRS which gives him the second worst DRS in all of MLB. The only player that's worse currently is Michael Young (mostly at third base). Uggla of course is the worst in DRS already among second baseman. While Elliot Johnson's best position defensively is second base, EJ currently has a 10 DRS at second in less than 400 innings at the position.

To sum it up, if neither are hitting much I'll go with the big upgrade EJ gives us defensively at second. Though I'll be the first to admit neither are long-term answers. I'm not real happy about either short-term either to be honest. But Uggla has been so bad you have to look elsewhere, IMO.

[Teheran_49]

We have the components for a productive platoon combination at second:

La Stella in AA had an OPS of .946 against righties and .754 against lefties.

Pastornicky in AAA was more neutral with an OPS of .743 against righties and .758 against lefties

There is no need to platoon La Stella. While his power may not be as great against lefties which is only a small sample size of 75 AB's you fail to mention the guy hit .338 with a .388 OBP. It just amazes me how many people on this board want to sell La Stella short yet I can't remember a prospect who hit for this high of average and walk as much if not more than he strikes out. Please, feel free to name me a guy who put these types of numbers up? I really could care less what the HR total says I look at the XBH and the guy hits plenty of doubles and averages around 1 XBH per 10 AB's.

[nsacpi]

There is no need to platoon La Stella. While his power may not be as great against lefties which is only a small sample size of 75 AB's you fail to mention the guy hit .338 with a .388 OBP. It just amazes me how many people on this board want to sell La Stella short yet I can't remember a prospect who hit for this high of average and walk as much if not more than he strikes out. Please, feel free to name me a guy who put these types of numbers up? I really could care less what the HR total says I look at the XBH and the guy hits plenty of doubles and averages around 1 XBH per 10 AB's.

Lemke hit for more power then La Stella in the minors and also had more walks than strikeouts while generally playing at a younger age at each level. The same could be said of another former Braves second baseman, Jeff Treadway. La Stella is a decent prospect, but what he did this past season is not that exceptional. Lots of "generic" major league second basemen put up better numbers in the minors or similar numbers at a younger age.

I'll mention that there was another second base prospect in the Southern League this season who walked more than he struck out. He was also drafted out of college, but after his junior year rather than senior year with La Stella. He put up very similar offensive numbers to La Stella, OPS of .903 versus .896 for La Stella. But he is a significantly better defender and baserunner than La Stella. He is also almost two years younger. This other player is not an uber prospect. I don't think he'll be on anyone's Top 100 list of prospects. Yet he is a significantly better prospect than La Stella. Similar bat, but younger, faster, stronger, more athletic, better and more versatile defender. This sort of comparison really shows you how tough it is to win a job as a major league regular. Neither La Stella nor this other player are by any means assured of becoming major league regulars. But I would say the other guy has a better chance.

Here's another comp. Daniel Murphy of the Mets. Not a star, but certainly a useful player. Like La Stella, drafted out of college. Put up similar numbers in AA in 2008. But did so a year younger than La Stella. I'd be very happy if La Stella became Daniel Murphy, who has put up OPS of .700-.750 the past couple years.

[jdunn]

IMO, Uggla has hit a wall in his career in a very similar fashion as Andruw Jones did. Both went from the pinnacle of their career to a sharp drop off. I believe the lasik surgery was an effort that Uggla hoped would turn things around. I'm not sure that he actually needed it, due to the fact that he has hit 21 HR's (why anyone would pitch him something in that in just might be able to pull, I don't know) this season. The other similarity between he and AJ is that they became so pull happy that they forgot about the other 65% of the field, I'm afraid BJ is following suit.

Regardless, barring a major showing in Spring Training 2014 and getting off to a hot start, I just don't see Uggla sticking around much longer.

[Julio3000]

To be fair to Fredi,, "Uggla" and "Utley" are both 5-letter names that start with "U."