Payroll Issues Illustrated: Fast Forward to 2016

[nsacpi]

I choose 2016 to illustrate matters because in many ways it represents the point when a lot of the payrolls issues will come to bear. We have Heyward and Justin Upton under contractual control through 2015. So the year after represents a good point to consider what holding on to them means. Uggla's contract expires after 2015. But Kimbrel, Freeman and Beachy will be in their last year of team control.

With these considerations in mind, let's consider what it would cost to keep all of our key players through 2016. I will include McCann in the discussion. This is sort of a starting point to see what "keeping everyone" implies and to help us understand who we not be able to keep.

So here are what the key players might cost in 2016. In the case of someone like Heyward, I assume a long term deal will include some increases over the life of the contract (ie a back-loaded contract), which will somewhat hold down the 2016 cost.

2016 Potential Major Expenditures

BJ (16M)
McCann (16M)
Justin (17M)
Heyward (13M)
Freeman (9M)
Kimbrel (13M) using the precedent from Papelbon's last arb year plus $1M for inflation
Simba (3M) first arb year
Beachy (6M)
Medlen (8M) assuming we extend him. Eligible for free agency after 2015
Minor (7M)
Teheran (3M) first arb year

I'm assuming all these players have "normal" career paths. No one breaks out to be an MVP/Cy Young winner or strong contender. No one gets hurt or regresses. It is just an assumption.

Anyhow the total is $111M for these 11 players. I'm assuming Chris Johnson is gone and replaced by a cheap in-house replacement.

For our remaining 14 players let's assume an average salary of a little under $1 M per player or a total of $12M.

So that leaves us at $123M total for a 25 man roster.

I don't think $123M is outlandish by 2016 considering the bump up in national TV revenues and natural growth of other revenues.

Doing this exercise leaves me somewhat optimistic that we can hold on to most if not all of our key guys.

[cajunrevenge]

Thats 3 seasons away. A lot can happen in that time. I think we can take out atleast 2-3 of those 11 mentioned wont be on the team in 2016. I think we arent going to keep both Justin and Heyward. Either they have the big breakout years we think they can and a big market team gives them a ridiculous amount of money or they continue having good but inconsistent seasons and the Braves wont want to give them mega contracts. Andrelton and Freeman to me are the most important ones to sign to extensions. Simmons because in arbitration he will get a lot just by being an every day player even if he doesnt hit a lot. Freeman because he is our most consistent hitter and I view him as the most likely to maintain or improve his performance. The pitchers I tend to just want to let them play out their contracts unless they are willing to give a good team discount. Its like playing injury roulette with pitchers. The Braves are as good as anyone at drafting and developing good young pitching so just focus on that and spend the money to re-sign hitters.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Curious as to how you arrived at the arb awards. I think you are probably very low since all players and agents are aware of the new TV revenue.

[nsacpi]

Curious as to how you arrived at the arb awards. I think you are probably very low since all players and agents are aware of the new TV revenue.

The arbitration process depends heavily on precedent. It will adjust to the new TV revenue but fairly gradually. Where you will see a more immediate effect will be in the free agent market.

[50PoundHead]

We'll see on Beachy. He could be earning more or out of baseball. His setback after returning has me worried.

But good analysis.

[PawPawMaxwell]

The arbitration process depends heavily on precedent. It will adjust to the new TV revenue but fairly gradually. Where you will see a more immediate effect will be in the free agent market. I understand that it depends on what you did for me lately but you arent going far enough.
Player goes to the arbitrator with what he wants. The GM goes to the arbitrator with what he offers. Closest to what the arbitrator believes wins.
You look at what Rivera, Papelbon and Soriano are getting paid this year and how Kimbrel (as an example) has done I wouldnt be surprised to see him ask for 10M.
Same goes for Johnson if he wins or comes close to winning the batting title when you look at Werth, Molina and Cuddyer to a lesser degree.