Keith Law's Top 100 Prospect Rankings

[CJ9]

He's releasing 20 per day, and three days in, 41-100 are available. Today was a big one for Braves prospects. I'll keep updating as the next two days come out.

Here's the current list:

81. LHP Sean Newcomb
77. LHP Luiz Gohara
59. SS Kevin Maitan
52. RHP Ian Anderson
50. LHP Max Fried
36. OF Ronald Acuna
32. LHP Kolby Allard
26. 2B Ozzie Albies
2. SS Dansby Swanson


Nine of the top 81 prospects.

[striker42]

Personally I think Newcomb is way too low and Gohara is too high. There's no reason for Newcomb to have dropped like he did on so many lists. He had a pretty decent season. I'd probably have him between 40 and 50.

I also don't really get why Ian Anderson is so high. I would hold off putting him in the top 100 until he showed something.

Fried is about where I'd put him though I think he'll jump up the lists this year.

[thewupk]

Personally I think Newcomb is way too low and Gohara is too high. There's no reason for Newcomb to have dropped like he did on so many lists. He had a pretty decent season. I'd probably have him between 40 and 50.

I also don't really get why Ian Anderson is so high. I would hold off putting him in the top 100 until he showed something.

Fried is about where I'd put him though I think he'll jump up the lists this year.

Prospect fatigue.

[thethe]

Touki will be on this list.

Agreed on Newcomb. Minor league hitters have proven they have no chance of hitting him.

[thethe]

We will have 10 of the top 100 prospects. That's sick.

[striker42]

Prospect fatigue.

Yeah, probably.

[Southcack77]

Yeah, probably.

I thought Newcombe pretty much duplicated what he'd done before to be a top prospect and finished pretty well. I agree that there wasn't a ton of reason to dock him.

But a lot of opinions were formed nationally of prospects during that first part of season when some braves prospects struggled.

Almost all of them finished really well but not sure the industry really processes that during the season.

Also it's always cool to backlash against what was glowing praise.

So braves rebuild which got perhaps too much credit for wrong reasons was a natural target at first opportunity.

[bravesfanMatt]

I would have Touki on before Anderson personally. Anderson is only getting credit for his draft position. I would love to see Acuna on there, but not sure he has enough cred to make it. But like someone already said, Law loves the kid.

[thethe]

I would have Touki on before Anderson personally. Anderson is only getting credit for his draft position. I would love to see Acuna on there, but not sure he has enough cred to make it. But like someone already said, Law loves the kid.

Andersons ranking is much more than his draft position.

[bravesfanMatt]

Andersons ranking is much more than his draft position.

hope so.

[cajunrevenge]

These lists are nice but remember placement in no way effects future performance. If Newcomb is 25th or 75th makes no difference in his actual performance.

[smootness]

Acuna will definitely be on there, no doubt. I seriously doubt Touki will be, though. I think we'll have 9.

[striker42]

I thought Newcombe pretty much duplicated what he'd done before to be a top prospect and finished pretty well. I agree that there wasn't a ton of reason to dock him.

But a lot of opinions were formed nationally of prospects during that first part of season when some braves prospects struggled.

Almost all of them finished really well but not sure the industry really processes that during the season.

Also it's always cool to backlash against what was glowing praise.

So braves rebuild which got perhaps too much credit for wrong reasons was a natural target at first opportunity.

The fact that Newcomb duplicated what he had been doing at AA is a pretty big deal. The jump from A ball to AA ball is a very hard jump to make and he did it successfully last year.

I could understand a small drop due to his continued control issues. We'd all have liked to see him reduce his BBs last year and every year he doesn't do it makes it less likely he will. But even with those walks he was still dominating.

[Russ2dollas]

Acuna will definitely be on there, no doubt. I seriously doubt Touki will be, though. I think we'll have 9.

Anyone think Soroka has a shot over Touki in this list?

[thethe]

Anyone think Soroka has a shot over Touki in this list?

I don't think Soroka has the buzz because of who is surrounding him. Allard/Fried/Touki raise a few more eyebrows because of the high quality of their stuff. Sorokas might play up more because of his ability to control his arsenal as well as play with speed changes. Those guys usually need to show it at a higher level to get notoriety.

[CJ9]

I thought Newcombe pretty much duplicated what he'd done before to be a top prospect and finished pretty well. I agree that there wasn't a ton of reason to dock him.

But a lot of opinions were formed nationally of prospects during that first part of season when some braves prospects struggled.

Almost all of them finished really well but not sure the industry really processes that during the season.

Also it's always cool to backlash against what was glowing praise.

So braves rebuild which got perhaps too much credit for wrong reasons was a natural target at first opportunity.

Newcomb pretty much duplicating what he did in 2015 was kind of the problem though. I think a lot of his aggressive rankings in the past were based on projections that his control would improve. But in 2016, it really didn't. I think that's why we are seeing most sites drop him, and I don't really blame them for that.

I do agree that his strong close gives me a little more hope for him. Hopefully that's a sign of things to come in 2017.

[smootness]

Anyone think Soroka has a shot over Touki in this list?

He does, but I'm not sure what Law thinks of him. He usually values upside more, and he may see Soroka as lacking the upside of guys like Fried, Gohara, and Newcomb. Having Soroka 10th or worse in our system would seem strange, though.

[Russ2dollas]

Newcomb pretty much duplicating what he did in 2015 was kind of the problem though. I think a lot of his aggressive rankings in the past were based on projections that his control would improve. But in 2016, it really didn't. I think that's why we are seeing most sites drop him, and I don't really blame them for that.

I do agree that his strong close gives me a little more hope for him. Hopefully that's a sign of things to come in 2017.

but when you have Kemp, Markakis and Garcia playing defense Ks and walks are fine. Putting the ball in play is just going to cause problems. Might as well walk them.

From the people that actually watch Newcombe they all seem to think he just loses focus. Klaw's write up makes it sound like it's a mystery flaw. He could be a guy like Cabrera that just needs the challenge/shock/whatever of being put in from of MLB hitters. Even if he struggles maybe it would be the butt kicking that he needs to focus more.

[CJ9]

Just saw an interesting point on Twitter. In his team prospect rankings, Law said that Anderson couldn't make the top six in the Atlanta system, meaning he was likely seventh. With Fried being sixth in our system (according to today's rankings), that means we still have five players left in his top 40. Pretty safe to assume Swanson, Albies, Allard and Acuna are four of them. Who would be the fifth? Touki or Soroka are probably the best bets, maybe Soroka? Law has always been a huge Touki fan, as others have mentioned, so I'd probably lean him.

[striker42]

but when you have Kemp, Markakis and Garcia playing defense Ks and walks are fine. Putting the ball in play is just going to cause problems. Might as well walk them.

From the people that actually watch Newcombe they all seem to think he just loses focus. Klaw's write up makes it sound like it's a mystery flaw. He could be a guy like Cabrera that just needs the challenge/shock/whatever of being put in from of MLB hitters. Even if he struggles maybe it would be the butt kicking that he needs to focus more.

I've watched a good bit of video on Newcomb and his walks look to be related to his mechanics getting out of whack. He'll cruise for several innings, his delivery will look absolutely smooth, and he'll be hitting the catcher's glove. Then suddenly things will get out of sync for some reason, he loses his release point, and he starts walking the world. It reminds me of a young Kimbrel in that respect.

Mike Scocia got to see him in ST one year and agrees about him losing his release point. ""He needs some refinement," Scioscia said. "He has to find his release point. Part of it is, 'How do you get back in sync when you lose it?' There's a lot of things in a pitcher's progression that he needs to figure out.""

http://m.angels.mlb.com/news/article/112850164/pitching-prospect-sean-newcomb-among-seven-angels-cuts/

Considering Newcomb's relative inexperience at the position, it's not surprising he'd still have points where he gets out of sync and loses his release point. The good thing is that's something that should get better with experience.

[rico43]

Are we sure Demeritte is not on this list? AFL performance was pretty notable.

[thethe]

I've watched a good bit of video on Newcomb and his walks look to be related to his mechanics getting out of whack. He'll cruise for several innings, his delivery will look absolutely smooth, and he'll be hitting the catcher's glove. Then suddenly things will get out of sync for some reason, he loses his release point, and he starts walking the world. It reminds me of a young Kimbrel in that respect.

Mike Scocia got to see him in ST one year and agrees about him losing his release point. ""He needs some refinement," Scioscia said. "He has to find his release point. Part of it is, 'How do you get back in sync when you lose it?' There's a lot of things in a pitcher's progression that he needs to figure out.""

http://m.angels.mlb.com/news/article/112850164/pitching-prospect-sean-newcomb-among-seven-angels-cuts/

Considering Newcomb's relative inexperience at the position, it's not surprising he'd still have points where he gets out of sync and loses his release point. The good thing is that's something that should get better with experience.

It's certainly confusing how a big bodied left handed pitcher who doesn't allow home runs or hits while strikin out more than a batter per inning is not talked about more.

[thethe]

Are we sure Demeritte is not on this list? AFL performance was pretty notable.

Extemely doubtful and I don't think he deserves it right now. Contact issues are huge detriments to a hitters success. I want guys with relatively low strikeout rates in the minors

[smootness]

Yeah, I don't see any way Demeritte is higher than guys like Fried, Anderson, Maitan, Newcomb, etc. I think he's about 12-15 in our system right now.

[Russ2dollas]

I've watched a good bit of video on Newcomb and his walks look to be related to his mechanics getting out of whack. He'll cruise for several innings, his delivery will look absolutely smooth, and he'll be hitting the catcher's glove. Then suddenly things will get out of sync for some reason, he loses his release point, and he starts walking the world. It reminds me of a young Kimbrel in that respect.

Mike Scocia got to see him in ST one year and agrees about him losing his release point. ""He needs some refinement," Scioscia said. "He has to find his release point. Part of it is, 'How do you get back in sync when you lose it?' There's a lot of things in a pitcher's progression that he needs to figure out.""

http://m.angels.mlb.com/news/article/112850164/pitching-prospect-sean-newcomb-among-seven-angels-cuts/

Considering Newcomb's relative inexperience at the position, it's not surprising he'd still have points where he gets out of sync and loses his release point. The good thing is that's something that should get better with experience.

opposite of most of what I've read and what Klaw said. He said he couldn't see any changes to make.

The road to ATL podcast had the announcer from his minor team and he made it sound like he got board in the middle the game.

[Preacher]

It's certainly confusing how a big bodied left handed pitcher who doesn't allow home runs or hits while strikin out more than a batter per inning is not talked about more.

I really don't think its that confusing; he walked 71 in 140 innings as a 22 year-old in AA.

I like a lot about Newcomb, the strikeouts, how he finished the season, the stuff but he does need to get his walks lower and even then; its not like Law is killing the guy - he still has him as a top-100 prospect.

[Preacher]

Its an interesting list; I would have Maitan lower, I don't know if either is on the list but I prefer Soroka > Touki (I imagine neither make it).

[Russ2dollas]

I really don't think its that confusing; he walked 71 in 140 innings as a 22 year-old in AA.

I like a lot about Newcomb, the strikeouts, how he finished the season, the stuff but he does need to get his walks lower and even then; its not like Law is killing the guy - he still has him as a top-100 prospect.

Agree that he's not killing him.

I think thethe's point is that:
1. 22 is not that old for AA....What is the avg age, 22-23?
2. He's a big guy and they tend to take longer
3. He's a lefty and they tend to take longer
4. He's a cold weather guy with less innings and they tend to take longer
5. He's a combo of 2-4.

walking 4-5 per 9 is not good.
I don't watch those games. I don't know if he's got bad umps or he's throwing it to the backstop. I don't know if guys are going deep into counts with him b/c they can't hit him and are just trying to work walks. I don't know anything.

But Go Hard being before him is confusing. Go Hard seems to be the same guy just younger and with a rumored shoulder issue. I know younger is often better on these lists but he's also been at lower levels of the minors.

[smootness]

Its an interesting list; I would have Maitan lower, I don't know if either is on the list but I prefer Soroka > Touki (I imagine neither make it).

One of Soroka/Touki basically has to be on the list.

[striker42]

opposite of most of what I've read and what Klaw said. He said he couldn't see any changes to make.

The road to ATL podcast had the announcer from his minor team and he made it sound like he got board in the middle the game.

Newcomb's walks tended to come in bunches. He'd just lose his release point and not be able to hit anything.

I can understand KLaw saying he doesn't see any obvious changes because when Newcomb is repeating his delivery with a consistent release point, he's fine. His motion is simple and smooth. There's nothing you'd want to change. It's just getting his mechanics and release point consistent. That takes reps.

[mqt]

Are we sure Demeritte is not on this list? AFL performance was pretty notable.

If I remember correctly, Klaw is still skeptical about TD given his high strikeout rate.

[Russ2dollas]

If I remember correctly, Klaw is still skeptical about TD given his high strikeout rate.

IIRC Klaw called him a flawed prospect. Said that we did great to get him for nothing but the K rate was a big time concern. That was before AFL.

Klaw does prefer upside. And he loves to stick it to Dave Stewart. So I can see Touki up there. Touki did great late, but that could be turning a corner or SSS.

I like both, but I'm higher on Soroka. I just think Soroka's floor is an avg starting pitcher in MLB. And I think he could be really good pitcher, especially if by the time he gets up we have defenders closer to Ender, Swanson, Albies than Kemp and Garcia.

[Deester11]

Newcomb's walks tended to come in bunches. He'd just lose his release point and not be able to hit anything.

I can understand KLaw saying he doesn't see any obvious changes because when Newcomb is repeating his delivery with a consistent release point, he's fine. His motion is simple and smooth. There's nothing you'd want to change. It's just getting his mechanics and release point consistent. That takes reps.
Sometimes I play resident expert and I'm not. MY EYEBALL...the post above is almost spot on. However, I'm a NEWK fan through and through. I didn't see anybody including Allard, Soroka, Wiegel last year that had consistent "you can't hit me stuff" more than Newk. I'm serious. The walks are notable and you can't ignore them. However, when batters did touch the ball when he threw strikes, their contact was weak. Very weak. IF he figures it out, the conversation is much different.

I saw Rome a lot last year. And I saw MS a few times. I think Newk is suffering from prospect fatigue and the walks. If it weren't for that, he'd be our top lefty with an argument for Allard.

[mqt]

I still find it very fun that these are the conversations we're having about what is likely our 10th ranked prospect on a national list.

[thethe]

Sometimes I play resident expert and I'm not. MY EYEBALL...the post above is almost spot on. However, I'm a NEWK fan through and through. I didn't see anybody including Allard, Soroka, Wiegel last year that had consistent "you can't hit me stuff" more than Newk. I'm serious. The walks are notable and you can't ignore them. However, when batters did touch the ball when he threw strikes, their contact was weak. Very weak. IF he figures it out, the conversation is much different.

I saw Rome a lot last year. And I saw MS a few times. I think Newk is suffering from prospect fatigue and the walks. If it weren't for that, he'd be our top lefty with an argument for Allard.

That's the thing. Outside of watching him pitch the analysis is pretty easy for me. What's his size and are guys getting hits off of him. His batting average against indicates that guys just can't barrel up the ball on him at all.

It's a great indicator of future success in my opinion.

[thethe]

I still find it very fun that these are the conversations we're having about what is likely our 10th ranked prospect on a national list.

The super front office did an incredible job.

The criticism has been they went for quantity over quality but if you look at guys like swanson/newcomb/fried/etc... you'll see the braves were able to accomplish both.

[Russ2dollas]

Remember Blair was top 40 last year on this list and Jenkins made the just missed list.

Also Ellis and Sims were both top 100 at some point for Law. It's not a guarantee of any future value.

Just re-read Klaw's last year's list (Touki on it at 80) and it's amazing Blair then vs Blair now.

[mqt]

The super front office did an incredible job.

The criticism has been they went for quantity over quality but if you look at guys like swanson/newcomb/fried/etc... you'll see the braves were able to accomplish both.

I think the quantity over quality argument is simply a dated one that some clutched to for too long. We had a lot of low level talent that is starting to advance, and have continued to fill the pipeline with more high upside young talent.

[Preacher]

The super front office did an incredible job.

The criticism has been they went for quantity over quality but if you look at guys like swanson/newcomb/fried/etc... you'll see the braves were able to accomplish both.

Agree, I don't think the Braves ever said 'we are just going after quantity' there were deals they got more quantity and deals they got more quality -- and in some cases they did both. The FO did a great job up to this point.

[rico43]

One game does not a turnaround make, but I watched with awe Aaron Blair's final start against as desperate Detroit team that was not yet eliminated from the playoffs. Blair's line: 6 innings, 4 hits, 2 runs, 1 walk, 10 (count 'em) strikeouts. Despite the big strikeout total, he threw only 85 pitches.

[Preacher]

Blair can very much still make a MLB impact; guy was very highly thought of just a year ago and pitched well in AAA before coming up to the show. Young guy.

[Tapate50]

One game does not a turnaround make, but I watched with awe Aaron Blair's final start against as desperate Detroit team that was not yet eliminated from the playoffs. Blair's line: 6 innings, 4 hits, 2 runs, 1 walk, 10 (count 'em) strikeouts. Despite the big strikeout total, he threw only 85 pitches.

I've said it here before but something got out of whack very quickly with him. You don't go from throwing no hitters at AAA, to not being able to get out of the 2nd inning in a matter of a few starts. Either it was butterflies, a mechanical flaw, or whatever there was something that got thrown off and he struggled from then forward.

He may have regained it, but it wasn't that he just doesn't have it to be a nice MLB pitcher. It was more like he got messed up mechanically and couldn't regain it. ( not uncommon)

[striker42]

Sometimes I play resident expert and I'm not. MY EYEBALL...the post above is almost spot on. However, I'm a NEWK fan through and through. I didn't see anybody including Allard, Soroka, Wiegel last year that had consistent "you can't hit me stuff" more than Newk. I'm serious. The walks are notable and you can't ignore them. However, when batters did touch the ball when he threw strikes, their contact was weak. Very weak. IF he figures it out, the conversation is much different.

I saw Rome a lot last year. And I saw MS a few times. I think Newk is suffering from prospect fatigue and the walks. If it weren't for that, he'd be our top lefty with an argument for Allard.

You're right that the walks can't be ignored. The reliability of his control will likely be the thing that determines how good he is. However, even with the walks he still put up an impressive FIP. His stuff is almost unhittable and he almost never gives up a HR. Those two things combine to limit the damage of the BBs. If he can reduce the BBs he'll be insanely good. We're talking top 5 prospect in the game good.

[Enscheff]

Remember Blair was top 40 last year on this list and Jenkins made the just missed list.

Also Ellis and Sims were both top 100 at some point for Law. It's not a guarantee of any future value.

Just re-read Klaw's last year's list (Touki on it at 80) and it's amazing Blair then vs Blair now.

Which is precisely why teams should not hesitate to trade away hitters outside the Top 25, and pitchers outside the Top 10, unless the prospects are super young like the cases of Acuna, Maitan, Anderson, and maybe Touki (though he is on the verge).

A prospect in his early 20s and/or AA is almost a 50/50 chance to be a bust (defined as less than 3 WAR total at the MLB level) if he is outside the Top 25 as a hitter or Top 10 as a pitcher. Those are the guys everyone keeps waiting to "figure it out", but they ultimately never do.

Knowing this, the Braves should be pushing to trade Newcomb in any deal they make to improve the MLB roster next offseason. Guys like Blair and Jenkins are already in the AAAA bin as far as value goes.

[bravesfanMatt]

I've said it here before but something got out of whack very quickly with him. You don't go from throwing no hitters at AAA, to not being able to get out of the 2nd inning in a matter of a few starts. Either it was butterflies, a mechanical flaw, or whatever there was something that got thrown off and he struggled from then forward.

He may have regained it, but it wasn't that he just doesn't have it to be a nice MLB pitcher. It was more like he got messed up mechanically and couldn't regain it. ( not uncommon)

agree completely. he was on a roll prior to his call up. His first two games were effective but he nibbled a lot. I think from there, he lost confidence and command. Hopefully, his head and mechanics are right and we will see more of Blair like his last three starts..

[thethe]

Which is precisely why teams should not hesitate to trade away hitters outside the Top 25, and pitchers outside the Top 10, unless the prospects are super young like the cases of Acuna, Maitan, Anderson, and maybe Touki (though he is on the verge).

A prospect in his early 20s and/or AA is almost a 50/50 chance to be a bust (defined as less than 3 WAR total at the MLB level) if he is outside the Top 25 as a hitter or Top 10 as a pitcher. Those are the guys everyone keeps waiting to "figure it out", but they ultimately never do.

Knowing this, the Braves should be pushing to trade Newcomb in any deal they make to improve the MLB roster next offseason. Guys like Blair and Jenkins are already in the AAAA bin as far as value goes.

I don't think it's as simple as looking at their age. What about guys that are late to baseball? Someone like Newcomb has more developent than a 20 year old whose been playing baseball year round since 15.

Scouting is not a spreadsheet. I agree that once players are in the big league's most of these metrics are great analysis tools. It just doesn't work with prospects

[Enscheff]

I don't think it's as simple as looking at their age. What about guys that are late to baseball? Someone like Newcomb has more developent than a 20 year old whose been playing baseball year round since 15.

Scouting is not a spreadsheet. I agree that once players are in the big league's most of these metrics are great analysis tools. It just doesn't work with prospects

I don't know what the success rate of "latecomers" is for 23 year-olds with major control problems in AA. Anecdotal evidence like, "they take longer to develop" doesn't really hold water in a logical decision making progress.

We know a few things as facts:

1. Old prospects rarely move up in rankings.
2. Young prospects potentially move up in rankings.
3. Pitchers/hitters outside the Top 10/25 have a nearly 50% bust rate.

Therefore, young pitchers/hitters can move into their respective Top 10/25 groups, while old prospects probably won't.

So if a guy is old, chances are he isn't moving up the rankings. If he isn't going to move up the rankings, he ends up being subject to the 50/50 bust potential. It is logical to conclude that's why bust...they are too old to improve significantly.

If Newcomb can be used as a major part to acquire an impact MLB player, the Braves should not hesitate.

Please note, this is not me saying, "Newcomb is garbage, dump him for a 4th OFer". So let's not get sidetracked down that path of argument. Let's also please avoid discussing the 0.1% chance he is the next Randy Johnson or Jake Arrieta and realize 99.9% of pitchers who are bad in the mid-20s stay bad.

[bravesfanMatt]

I don't think it's as simple as looking at their age. What about guys that are late to baseball? Someone like Newcomb has more developent than a 20 year old whose been playing baseball year round since 15.

Scouting is not a spreadsheet. I agree that once players are in the big league's most of these metrics are great analysis tools. It just doesn't work with prospects

Newk is not 'bad', regardless of what some might say. He has one flaw that is always the last thing to be honed. He is a career 3.29 ERA,doesn't get hit hard, and has a K rate over 10 for his pro career. He has everything he needs to be a quality major leaguer. He, like Giolito, Nola, Glasnow, and many more big prospects, have to over come the command of pitching. He is ready outside of that.

[Russ2dollas]

Which is precisely why teams should not hesitate to trade away hitters outside the Top 25, and pitchers outside the Top 10, unless the prospects are super young like the cases of Acuna, Maitan, Anderson, and maybe Touki (though he is on the verge).

A prospect in his early 20s and/or AA is almost a 50/50 chance to be a bust (defined as less than 3 WAR total at the MLB level) if he is outside the Top 25 as a hitter or Top 10 as a pitcher. Those are the guys everyone keeps waiting to "figure it out", but they ultimately never do.

Knowing this, the Braves should be pushing to trade Newcomb in any deal they make to improve the MLB roster next offseason. Guys like Blair and Jenkins are already in the AAAA bin as far as value goes.

I don't agree they should move someone for anything to improve MLB. I doubt you meant it that way. For example I wouldn't trade Newcombe for one year of JD Drew.

Newcombe could very well be improving MLB for us by next offseason.

I do think you have to be willing to make a deal. But you need to get a guy who can provide 2+ WAR and be controlled for multiple years.

[Southcack77]

Remember Blair was top 40 last year on this list and Jenkins made the just missed list.

Also Ellis and Sims were both top 100 at some point for Law. It's not a guarantee of any future value.

Just re-read Klaw's last year's list (Touki on it at 80) and it's amazing Blair then vs Blair now.


I don't quite understand why a failed first attempt at the majors is a death sentience to a prospect. Obviously, some pretty good pitchers have been shelled in their first taste. I suspect Blair will get another opportunity somewhere.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

Newk is not 'bad', regardless of what some might say. He has one flaw that is always the last thing to be honed. He is a career 3.29 ERA,doesn't get hit hard, and has a K rate over 10 for his pro career. He has everything he needs to be a quality major leaguer. He, like Giolito, Nola, Glasnow, and many more big prospects, have to over come the command of pitching. He is ready outside of that.
I feel like he's a fifth starter right now with a chance to be better with better control.

[Southcack77]

I don't think it's as simple as looking at their age. What about guys that are late to baseball? Someone like Newcomb has more developent than a 20 year old whose been playing baseball year round since 15.

Scouting is not a spreadsheet. I agree that once players are in the big league's most of these metrics are great analysis tools. It just doesn't work with prospects


I think there is probably a more meaningful statistical profile than the batch of minor league pitchers in general. Probably can refine it down a bit to get a group that looks more like him and might be a bit more applicable.

Sort of like running calculations on the advisability of a bunt in a particular situation based on the average plate appearance rather than the realities of the matchup. A bunt might be a losing play based on the average at bat, but a winning play based on the pitcher/batter.

I kind of think a plus stuff left who misses bats but struggles with control might have a different expectation than minor league pitchers in general. You'd have to have those numbers to really know. And then you would know that the expectation is that you would have results on both sides of the baseline.

.....

I do agree that cashing in prospects for established major league players makes a ton of sense in most circumstances. In the Braves current circumstance, though, I think they might be better off scratching off their lottery tickets. They have shown they can recycle the middling tickets for new ones to some degree.

[UNCBlue012]

Blair just looked really really horrible -- flat, really. I think he's a much better pitcher than what we saw, but he was terrible through most starts. That being said, his last start was just terrific. He had so much life on his fastball.

[Russ2dollas]

I don't quite understand why a failed first attempt at the majors is a death sentience to a prospect. Obviously, some pretty good pitchers have been shelled in their first taste. I suspect Blair will get another opportunity somewhere.

Didn't say it was.

Just saying that top 40 Klaw ranking is far from a guarantee of success.

[CJ9]

The 21-40 rankings are up. Acuna is 36, Allard is 32 and Albies is 26.

There must've been a misprint or something in his Atlanta team report about Anderson not being in the top six. There's no way that anyone in the system is in the top 20 besides Swanson.

[thethe]

Hmmm...I guess touki won't be in the list.

[Russ2dollas]

Hmmm...I guess touki won't be in the list.

Touki or Soroka prob hits the just missed it list.

[thewupk]

The 21-40 rankings are up. Acuna is 36, Allard is 32 and Albies is 26.

There must've been a misprint or something in his Atlanta team report about Anderson not being in the top six. There's no way that anyone in the system is in the top 20 besides Swanson.

Yeah I doubt Anderson is that high. Did Law do a midseason top 50 last year? Curious where Albies would of been on that list for him. He was top 15 in most other publications.

[smootness]

The 21-40 rankings are up. Acuna is 36, Allard is 32 and Albies is 26.

There must've been a misprint or something in his Atlanta team report about Anderson not being in the top six. There's no way that anyone in the system is in the top 20 besides Swanson.

Agreed. Maybe he meant to type something like 'could barely crack' the top 6 and made a mistake. Oh well, 4 in the top 36, 7 in the top 60, and 9 in the top 100 is still pretty insane.

Albies seems a bit low on this one, but I'm guessing he just won't ever rank a guy with so little power much higher than that.

[smootness]

Yeah I doubt Anderson is that high. Did Law do a midseason top 50 last year? Curious where Albies would of been on that list for him. He was top 15 in most other publications.

Anderson was 52. He just said in his team rankings that Anderson was drafted 3rd yet couldn't crack Atlanta's top 6, yet it looks like he will indeed be 6th.

[thethe]

Wasn't touki on his top 100 last year?

[Tapate50]

I think people are still sleeping on Soroka. Guy has a nice pitch mix, the frame, and peripherals to be a durn good pitcher. Guys can't barrel him up as is and has only allowed 3 hrs (I think) in his pro career to date. Not walking guys either...

I read on FG that he's no more than a #4 I think, and if so, he would be the most solid #4 in the game if he progresses. Maybe in a rotation with Allard, Newcomb, Julio, Folty, Touki he would be a 4\5!

[CJ9]

Wasn't touki on his top 100 last year?

Yes, I think he was 90 last year.

[striker42]

Soroka doesn't wow you with a high 90s fastball or a Touki like curve. That gets him overlooked by a lot of people. But he's not out there throwing 87 and just getting guys out by being crafty. His stuff is solid and he projects to have excellent command. Capping his ceiling as a #4 is a mistake. I think he has the potential to be a a mid-3's ERA workhorse in the majors. Maybe even better than that if his secondary stuff continues to improve.

[smootness]

If there's any publication I don't trust anymore regarding prospects, it is Fangraphs.

He didn't have the kind of K-rate in A-ball you usually see from a top prospect, but he was also 18. It's possible he could repeat A this year and make that jump to 11 or so. I know he'll start in A+, but it seems too early in his development to say he'll never be more than a 4.

[thethe]

If there's any publication I don't trust anymore regarding prospects, it is Fangraphs.

He didn't have the kind of K-rate in A-ball you usually see from a top prospect, but he was also 18. It's possible he could repeat A this year and make that jump to 11 or so. I know he'll start in A+, but it seems too early in his development to say he'll never be more than a 4.

We took fsngraphs lifeblood for prospect evaluation.

[Tapate50]

Soroka doesn't wow you with a high 90s fastball or a Touki like curve. That gets him overlooked by a lot of people. But he's not out there throwing 87 and just getting guys out by being crafty. His stuff is solid and he projects to have excellent command. Capping his ceiling as a #4 is a mistake. I think he has the potential to be a a mid-3's ERA workhorse in the majors. Maybe even better than that if his secondary stuff continues to improve.

If anything it helps his likelihood of contributing in the majors more than others with a flash pitch that have to develop secondary offerings. Guy could continue to outpitch the rankings. I think he likely will.

[Krgrecw]

We took fsngraphs lifeblood for prospect evaluation.



Keith law has been **** on for over a decade by this and the other board for anti-braves bias. Now he says nice things about the braves prospects and all is forgiven?

[thethe]

Keith law has been **** on for over a decade by this and the other board for anti-braves bias. Now he says nice things about the braves prospects and all is forgiven?

Mostly because he was proven right about how awful Wren was.

[thewupk]

Mostly because he was proven right about how awful Wren was.

I'm pretty sure he just disagreed with safe picks like Mike Minor. Something several posters on here agreed with but were mocked for because it went against the organization.

[smootness]

Keith law has been **** on for over a decade by this and the other board for anti-braves bias. Now he says nice things about the braves prospects and all is forgiven?

First, what does thethe's comment have to do with Keith Law?

Second, Law never had anti-Braves bias. He clearly has a certain way of valuing prospects that ran counter to the way our former FO did. Sometimes he turns out really wrong, like with Freeman and Sale, but he does a fairly good job overall, and you know what you're getting with him.

[Russ2dollas]

First, what does thethe's comment have to do with Keith Law?

Second, Law never had anti-Braves bias. He clearly has a certain way of valuing prospects that ran counter to the way our former FO did. Sometimes he turns out really wrong, like with Freeman and Sale, but he does a fairly good job overall, and you know what you're getting with him.

Agree.
On Minor Law said he was wrong on him b/c he didn't think Minor would have the velocity increase he did. He didn't have FF or Goldschmit high. I think he's pretty clear that all the way 1B don't rate as high for him. I think the ranking of the kid from the Mets may be him re-calibrating after those two have done so well.

I am surprised Touki went from ranked to not ranked. I think he moved forward last year. Still unlikely.

[rico43]

Agree.
On Minor Law said he was wrong on him b/c he didn't think Minor would have the velocity increase he did. He didn't have FF or Goldschmit high. I think he's pretty clear that all the way 1B don't rate as high for him. I think the ranking of the kid from the Mets may be him re-calibrating after those two have done so well.

I am surprised Touki went from ranked to not ranked. I think he moved forward last year. Still unlikely.

Others simply progressed more. Not a slam on him; not everyone will advance at the same pace.

[thethe]

Agree.
On Minor Law said he was wrong on him b/c he didn't think Minor would have the velocity increase he did. He didn't have FF or Goldschmit high. I think he's pretty clear that all the way 1B don't rate as high for him. I think the ranking of the kid from the Mets may be him re-calibrating after those two have done so well.

I am surprised Touki went from ranked to not ranked. I think he moved forward last year. Still unlikely.

He values upside so it's still possible touki is on this list

[Russ2dollas]

He values upside so it's still possible touki is on this list

I don't think anyone can put Touki in the top 20.......that would be crazy.

I don't think ppl progressed more. There are a lot of recent draft picks on here. Guys like Maitan and Acuna who haven't done as much but the helium is there for other reasons.

Klaw's job is to predict the future. that is always as hard job. Especially hard with baseball prospects. Even harder with prospects that sign as teenagers.

[smootness]

I think it's the same deal as with Newcomb. Every year guys like that don't fix the control problems is one year closer to them never figuring it out.

Touki did end the year much better than he finished it, and I'm higher on him than I was last year, but I can't blame someone for not being quite as high on him. He'll turn 21 this year, and he'll start in A+. That's not the normal profile of a top prospect. He absolutely won't be in the top 20, there's not even a chance of that happening.

[Russ2dollas]

most recent Buster Olney podcast has Law.

Law said he got through 30 prospects with ATL that he thinks all have big league value and that's never happened. Probably could have gone a few more. Did say Yanks have higher ceiling and Pads may too but Pads are to young.

[UNCBlue012]

most recent Buster Olney podcast has Law.

Law said he got through 30 prospects with ATL that he thinks all have big league value and that's never happened. Probably could have gone a few more. Did say Yanks have higher ceiling and Pads may too but Pads are to young.

Damn. That's incredible.

[Enscheff]

If there's any publication I don't trust anymore regarding prospects, it is Fangraphs.

He didn't have the kind of K-rate in A-ball you usually see from a top prospect, but he was also 18. It's possible he could repeat A this year and make that jump to 11 or so. I know he'll start in A+, but it seems too early in his development to say he'll never be more than a 4.

When Farnsworth was their guy their prospect stuff was awful. He's the one that ranked some AAAA pitcher #1 for the Braves.

Now that Longenhagen is there it is probably the best prospect site out there.

[Enscheff]

He values upside so it's still possible touki is on this list

Just stop man. Touki is not Top 20 on any list. Turn the homerism down a notch or two.

[Enscheff]

We took fsngraphs lifeblood for prospect evaluation.

When MLB teams hire guys from other sites, we can talk about how great those sites are. Until then, FG is the best source of baseball info available to the public.

[smootness]

When MLB teams hire guys from other sites, we can talk about how great those sites are. Until then, FG is the best source of baseball info available to the public.

How many guys from FG have been hired away by MLB teams?

[smootness]

When Farnsworth was their guy their prospect stuff was awful. He's the one that ranked some AAAA pitcher #1 for the Braves.

Now that Longenhagen is there it is probably the best prospect site out there.

Longenhagen was at MLB.com, right? I didn't love their prospect stuff, either. I think FG was the best, I think that's probably BP now.

[Krgrecw]

When MLB teams hire guys from other sites, we can talk about how great those sites are. Until then, FG is the best source of baseball info available to the public.

HQ was/is the best site. Half of thier minor league prospect staff became scouts.

[mqt]

Longenhagen was at MLB.com, right? I didn't love their prospect stuff, either. I think FG was the best, I think that's probably BP now.

Longenhagen was at ESPN last. I don't think he was an MLB.com guy.

[smootness]

Longenhagen was at ESPN last. I don't think he was an MLB.com guy.

I am very stupid.

I looked him up, saw posts with 'MLB' and came to the logical conclusion that if someone is writing about MLB, he must be doing it for MLB.com.

[Enscheff]

How many guys from FG have been hired away by MLB teams?

Well the Braves hired one, and someone snapped up ***erstrom recently. That's in the last year.

How many guys got hired from ESPN or BA? Zero? How many from BP? How about clv's marvelous site? Still zero?

[cajunrevenge]

Well the Braves hired one, and someone snapped up ***erstrom recently. That's in the last year.

How many guys got hired from ESPN or BA? Zero? How many from BP? How about clv's marvelous site? Still zero?


Well teams generally pay junior front office staff **** compared to what they could make elsewhere.

[mqt]

While I'd agree it's certainly not a bad thing that FG has guys get snatched up by MLB teams, one must remember that there's a difference between providing solid baseball knowledge in a way that fans can consume it and actually having any value to bring to the scouting table.

[thewupk]

Well the Braves hired one, and someone snapped up ***erstrom recently. That's in the last year.

How many guys got hired from ESPN or BA? Zero? How many from BP? How about clv's marvelous site? Still zero?

There have been a few from BP.

http://awfulannouncing.com/2014/yet-another-baseball-prospectus-writer-has-been-hired-by-an-mlb-team.html

[smootness]

Well the Braves hired one, and someone snapped up ***erstrom recently. That's in the last year.

How many guys got hired from ESPN or BA? Zero? How many from BP? How about clv's marvelous site? Still zero?

But does their departure not indicate that the site may be worse now than it was before? I get that it indicates hiring practices that are well suited to getting knowledgeable guys, but all it really proves is that their information used to be put out by guys MLB wanted.

Law himself worked for both BP and an MLB team. Does that make BP better, or his own stuff? Or does it just prove he couldn't hack it in MLB?

[CJ9]

Swanson comes in at No. 2.

[striker42]

Swanson comes in at No. 2.

Wow. That's impressive.

[Russ2dollas]

I'm still mad at us winning meaningless games and getting the 3rd pick and missing out on Senzel.

Klaw lower on Moncada than I thought....ranking is there but the words show more concern IMO. He's always love Golito. Kopech write up and rank surprises me. I was thinking his ceiling was Folty or Samarja.

SS in the NL East looks stacked for a long time.

Swanson write up still worries me a little...I'm hoping he hits enough.

[CJ9]

I'm still mad at us winning meaningless games and getting the 3rd pick and missing out on Senzel.

Klaw lower on Moncada than I thought....ranking is there but the words show more concern IMO. He's always love Golito. Kopech write up and rank surprises me. I was thinking his ceiling was Folty or Samarja.

SS in the NL East looks stacked for a long time.

Swanson write up still worries me a little...I'm hoping he hits enough.

It's going to be rough watching Senzel turn into an above average third baseman in the next couple years, knowing we missed out by one pick. And we'll probably feel pretty similar with the draft this year, picking fifth when we could've been second with just one extra loss.

I was a little concerned by the Swanson write up, too. It certainly didn't sound like the write up of the #2 prospect in baseball.

[Russ2dollas]

It's going to be rough watching Senzel turn into an above average third baseman in the next couple years, knowing we missed out by one pick. And we'll probably feel pretty similar with the draft this year, picking fifth when we could've been second with just one extra loss.

I was a little concerned by the Swanson write up, too. It certainly didn't sound like the write up of the #2 prospect in baseball.

it's concerning when everyone seems to say he's just a guy but he has magical Vandy powers. Especially with Turner already looking like a star and Crawford about to be in Philly. Mets have a top 20 SS. We will see. I'm more confident Alibies will hit. Just wish one of them had a power stroke.

I know that babip was high but I don't remember a lot of Chris Johnson bloopers for Swanson.

[smootness]

I'm still mad at us winning meaningless games and getting the 3rd pick and missing out on Senzel.

Klaw lower on Moncada than I thought....ranking is there but the words show more concern IMO. He's always love Golito. Kopech write up and rank surprises me. I was thinking his ceiling was Folty or Samarja.

SS in the NL East looks stacked for a long time.

Swanson write up still worries me a little...I'm hoping he hits enough.

I don't want you to just paste premium content, but any way you can sort of summarize what he said about Moncada, Dansby, and Kopech?

[Hawk]

I don't want you to just paste premium content, but any way you can sort of summarize what he said about Moncada, Dansby, and Kopech?

Here's a blurb from Dansby's:

At the plate, Swanson is going to strike out more than the typical hitter of this profile, so while he has doubles power and will add value on the bases, he’s going to have to raise his contact rate to become a real asset at the plate. His debut in Atlanta was boosted by a .383 BABIP that he’s not going to repeat, although I think he has enough feel to hit that he'll post BABIPs above league average. He’s a high-floor guy with some low-probability ceiling -- at worst, a solid-average major league shortstop right now, and potentially an All-Star given some changes in his approach at the plate.

[smootness]

I think that's a pretty good writeup. It's a given that he'll have to cut down on the Ks to keep his BA where it was because of the high BABIP. But I also think that's pretty likely. He'll K some, but I don't see any reason to believe it will stay above 20%.

The fact that his floor is a solid-average SS and his ceiling is an All-Star is pretty stinking nice.

[Julio3000]

I think that's a pretty good writeup. It's a given that he'll have to cut down on the Ks to keep his BA where it was because of the high BABIP. But I also think that's pretty likely. He'll K some, but I don't see any reason to believe it will stay above 20%.

The fact that his floor is a solid-average SS and his ceiling is an All-Star is pretty stinking nice.

I think that take on Dansby is pretty spot on. And I'm inclined to think that that ceiling is more likely bet than the floor. FWIW, I also think he'll maintain a higher-than-average BABIP if his approach stays consistent. What I don't care for so much are the Jeter/Larkin comps.

[smootness]

I think that take on Dansby is pretty spot on. And I'm inclined to think that that ceiling is more likely bet than the floor. FWIW, I also think he'll maintain a higher-than-average BABIP if his approach stays consistent. What I don't care for so much are the Jeter/Larkin comps.

You think those are too lofty?

I mean, that would obviously be an absolute best-case, but I think it's at least possible he could get there. I think his defense will be better than Jeter's and relatively similar, though maybe a little below, Larkin's. I think he can be a pretty comparable offensive player to Larkin as well, though he probably won't reach Larkin's peak, which oddly came in his 30s.

[Julio3000]

You think those are too lofty?

I mean, that would obviously be an absolute best-case, but I think it's at least possible he could get there. I think his defense will be better than Jeter's and relatively similar, though maybe a little below, Larkin's. I think he can be a pretty comparable offensive player to Larkin as well, though he probably won't reach Larkin's peak, which oddly came in his 30s.

I do think it's possible, if unlikely. Those are HoFers.

[thewupk]

I do think it's possible, if unlikely. Those are HoFers.

The thing about those two is that they were consistently good. In Jeter's case he was a 3-4 WAR player that had a couple of superstar seasons sprinked in. And he just happened to do that for 20 years. I'm not going say HOF is in the future for Swanson but I think he will be that type of player in his prime. 3-4 WAR player who has a good all around game.

[thethe]

The thing about those two is that they were consistently good. In Jeter's case he was a 3-4 WAR player that had a couple of superstar seasons sprinked in. And he just happened to do that for 20 years. I'm not going say HOF is in the future for Swanson but I think he will be that type of player in his prime. 3-4 WAR player who has a good all around game.

Jeter was a great hitter for 15 years. We'd be real fortunate to get something close to that.

[thewupk]

Jeter was a great hitter for 15 years. We'd be real fortunate to get something close to that.

Doubt he will be the hitter Jeter was but he should be a better defender. In his prime at least.

[thewupk]

A better comp is probably prime Jimmy Rollins without the steals.

[UNCBlue012]

I've said it several times, but I'd be very ecstatic with consistent .280/.350 season. His swing is pretty, but you can definitely sense he'll have seasons where he'll strikeout more than he probably should.

[UNCBlue012]

A better comp is probably prime Jimmy Rollins without the steals.

I think he'll do a bit better than .264/.324 for his career personally.

[smootness]

I think he'll do a bit better than .264/.324 for his career personally.

Did you miss the 'prime' part of that?

[Enscheff]

There have been a few from BP.

http://awfulannouncing.com/2014/yet-another-baseball-prospectus-writer-has-been-hired-by-an-mlb-team.html

You know, that makes sense actually, especially the date (2014). I currently have a BP subscription because it used to be the best site around. Nowadays I rarely take the time to read much of anything they produce. It seems their talent got snatched up by MLB clubs, and they haven't been able to adequately replace it.

[UNCBlue012]

Did you miss the 'prime' part of that?

Yeah, I did. lol I would take that Rollins anytime lol

[Enscheff]

But does their departure not indicate that the site may be worse now than it was before? I get that it indicates hiring practices that are well suited to getting knowledgeable guys, but all it really proves is that their information used to be put out by guys MLB wanted.

Law himself worked for both BP and an MLB team. Does that make BP better, or his own stuff? Or does it just prove he couldn't hack it in MLB?

I just posted that it definitely made BP worse. The heart of FG is Cameron and Sillivan, and every indication they have given is that they value the flexibility their site gives them, and MLB teams don't pay enough to justify giving that up. I'm guessing they make a pretty good bit of coin over there, certainly enough that they don't need to chase other opportunities.

FG has also replaced their awful prospect guy Farnsworth with Longenhagen. In my opinion, he is easily the best prospect guy in the public sphere right now. He not only compiles reports on guys like the other prospect guys, but he is constantly out scouting these guys in person. There are very few top prospects he hasn't watched in person. He is a young guy with enough freedom to travel all over scouting, so I wouldn't be shocked at all if an MLB team snatches him up and he takes it.

FG will almost certainly lose their prospect guy to an MLB club, but Cameron and Sullivan are the heart and soul of what that site does well, and I don't think hey are going anywhere.

[Enscheff]

A better comp is probably prime Jimmy Rollins without the steals.

I always go back to Trammell as Swanson's comp. I think folks forget just how good he was becuase he never got any HOF attention. Career .285/.350/.415 hitter with a few AS seasons sprinkled in during his peak. He probably won't match Trammell's best season at age 29 when he went .343/.402/.551 with 28 Hrs, 21 SBs and 8+ WAR, but I could see Swanson topping the 20 HR mark once or twice.

[smootness]

I always go back to Trammell as Swanson's comp. I think folks forget just how good he was becuase he never got any HOF attention. Career .285/.350/.415 hitter with a few AS seasons sprinkled in during his peak. He probably won't match Trammell's best season at age 29 when he went .343/.402/.551 with 28 Hrs, 21 SBs and 8+ WAR, but I could see Swanson topping the 20 HR mark once or twice.

I would take Trammell's prime in a heartbeat.

Better prime than Jeter or Larkin.

[striker42]

I would put Edgar Renteria out there as a likely comp. Swanson could end up being better but I think a Renteria-like career is the most probable. Renteria was more of a SB threat than Swanson will be but I think Swanson will have more pop.

[thethe]

I think Swanson is going to steal more bags than you would think. Overall I feel as if the braves will become more agrees I've on the basepaths.

[Julio3000]

I think Swanson is going to steal more bags than you would think. Overall I feel as if the braves will become more agrees I've on the basepaths.

Ron Washington might influence that.

[thewupk]

Ron Washington might influence that.

He will bring speed to the table for sure.

[bravesfanMatt]

He will bring speed to the table for sure.

Way to bump these classic puns. well played!!

[Russ2dollas]

Klaw chat had some braves stuff in it. Surprised he's not in on soroka. Said he thought he may be a rp

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

All those plus or plus plus command relievers out there. Soroka would totally fit in.

Joking aside, Soroka seems like the guy in our system that Law would be low on. High floor, control/commands well, good mental game.

[nsacpi]

imo Soroka is our second best pitching prospect after Allard.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

imo Soroka is our second best pitching prospect after Allard.If you like control, you basically have to agree with that statement.

[nsacpi]

If you like control, you basically have to agree with that statement.

Age for level is also important to keep in mind.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

Very true

[Russ2dollas]

for insiders the write up for the braves is up.

Riley has slider bat speed and not athletic....let the klaw hate come back.

[bravesfanMatt]

for insiders the write up for the braves is up.

Riley has slider bat speed and not athletic....let the klaw hate come back.

Until Riley proves him wrong. Why hate.

[smootness]

for insiders the write up for the braves is up.

Riley has slider bat speed and not athletic....let the klaw hate come back.

He's said that before, and I don't think it's a surprise to anybody. We just won't know what Riley's future is at least until he hits AA, and it may not be until he sees major league pitching that we really know if he can make up for his bat speed.

[Russ2dollas]

Until Riley proves him wrong. Why hate.

b/c it's a message board. And ppl like to hate Klaw.

I like him. He gives you an opinion and why he has that opinion.

You may not agree that Soroka's frame holds him back but at least you know where the guy's coming from with the rank or no rank.

[smootness]

b/c it's a message board. And ppl like to hate Klaw.

I like him. He gives you an opinion and why he has that opinion.

You may not agree that Soroka's frame holds him back but at least you know where the guy's coming from with the rank or no rank.

Agreed. Personally, I don't get the knock on Soroka's frame. He looks like he could add weight, and his frame is very similar to Sale's. Of course, Law didn't like Sale, so...

[striker42]

for insiders the write up for the braves is up.

Riley has slider bat speed and not athletic....let the klaw hate come back.

That's been Law's take for a while now. We'll see how that plays out. Troy Glaus might be a good comp for Riley and he never had what you'd call lightening bat speed.

[Russ2dollas]

Agreed. Personally, I don't get the knock on Soroka's frame. He looks like he could add weight, and his frame is very similar to Sale's. Of course, Law didn't like Sale, so...

I don't get it either...just seems like I see a ton of SP body types. I don't see the strong texas SP as the only guy out there or even the majority. Lots of skinny guys. Lots of fat guys.

I think the DPeterson write up is interesting. I know "avg regular" doesn't excite anyone. But Avg left field bat is pretty decent. We have Kemp and Markakis around for too long and he's young. But a cheap, avg corner bat probably helps this team a lot.

Ruiz didn't make the rankings.

Much more realistic on Demerrite...80% he never plays in MLB. 20% chance he is a starting 2B.

The catcher we signed for 300k sounds really interesting. I didn't realize he was 25.....How much bat would he have to show to be on the roster next year? It's not like there is a lot holding him back.

[Tapate50]

I don't get it either...just seems like I see a ton of SP body types. I don't see the strong texas SP as the only guy out there or even the majority. Lots of skinny guys. Lots of fat guys.

I think the DPeterson write up is interesting. I know "avg regular" doesn't excite anyone. But Avg left field bat is pretty decent. We have Kemp and Markakis around for too long and he's young. But a cheap, avg corner bat probably helps this team a lot.

Ruiz didn't make the rankings.

Much more realistic on Demerrite...80% he never plays in MLB. 20% chance he is a starting 2B.

The catcher we signed for 300k sounds really interesting. I didn't realize he was 25.....How much bat would he have to show to be on the roster next year? It's not like there is a lot holding him back.

This year for DPete is pretty big.

[Tapate50]

MLB.com has Soroka at 6'4 195 as a 19 year old. What on earth is wrong with that build?

[bravesfanMatt]

b/c it's a message board. And ppl like to hate Klaw.

I like him. He gives you an opinion and why he has that opinion.

You may not agree that Soroka's frame holds him back but at least you know where the guy's coming from with the rank or no rank.

I wasn't being a d**k.. I like to hate Law too. but I don't because of his opinion on Riley. unfortunately he might be right. I have huge concerns about Riley, but I still hold him as a legit prospect until he struggles for a few years.

and Yes, Soroka has a great pitching frame.. There was a reddit photo of Meet and Greet Rome.. Dude is legit. http://imgur.com/DpYmESB

[Hawk]

Law also adds that Sims has "no plane or life to his fastball" and "has" to move to the bullpen.

- Scouts wanted Minter in the ATL Top 10, Law doesn't like him as much because he's a "one inning reliever" with high injury risk b/c of his delivery.
- Wentz gets "Cole Hamels lite" comps
- Thinks Weigl could be up in September

[bravesfanMatt]

Law also adds that Sims has "no plane or life to his fastball" and "has" to move to the bullpen.

- Scouts wanted Minter in the Top 10, Law doesn't like him as much because he's a "one inning reliever" with high injury risk b/c of his delivery.
- Wentz gets "Cole Hamels lite" comps
- Thinks Weigl could be up in September


I agree that Sims needs to go to the pen. I don't think he can cut it as a starter with the potential talent against him. He could be a high leverage reliever though. completely disagree on Minter, but oh well. Love the Wentz/Wegiel blurbs.

thanks Hawk.

[Oklahomabrave]

Law also adds that Sims has "no plane or life to his fastball" and "has" to move to the bullpen.

- Scouts wanted Minter in the ATL Top 10, Law doesn't like him as much because he's a "one inning reliever" with high injury risk b/c of his delivery.
- Wentz gets "Cole Hamels lite" comps
- Thinks Weigl could be up in September

Does he mention if he thinks Weigel can stick in the rotation or as a BP guy?

[smootness]

Interesting that he sees Minter as a 1-inning guy (although just about all RPs are now, at least until you get to the playoffs) after his college career as a starter.

As for Demeritte, I'd say it's more like: 10% above-average starting 2B, 20% below-average starting 2B, 50% bench bat, 20% never plays in the majors. A guy with that kind of bat and glove seems like he'll probably have a place in the majors, it just may not be in the starting lineup and it may not be for very long.

[Hawk]

Does he mention if he thinks Weigel can stick in the rotation or as a BP guy?

Says that Weigl has less upside than Soroka, but has three MLB average pitches ... so that seems to imply (BOR?) starter.

[Tapate50]

Seeing what Minter has as a one inning guy, I think he is just fine as your closer of the future. Guys got ridiculous numbers.

[Hawk]

I agree that Sims needs to go to the pen. I don't think he can cut it as a starter with the potential talent against him. He could be a high leverage reliever though.

Me too. I think that if the Braves weren't so pitching rich he'd be given another go in AAA - but, as it stands, he's a more useful potential piece out of the bullpen. I seem to recall that his attitude wasn't the greatest, so perhaps it will be interesting to see if a move to the pen would be an issue.

I'd hate for the Braves use him as trade bait when his value is arguably at its lowest point.

[striker42]

I've resisted the idea of moving Sims to the pen because of his potential but it's becoming clearer that's probably where he contributes the most. Also, the future rotation is getting crowded. Sims has fallen behind other starters. I think Sims will pitch out of the pen in Atlanta this year.

[Russ2dollas]

I've resisted the idea of moving Sims to the pen because of his potential but it's becoming clearer that's probably where he contributes the most. Also, the future rotation is getting crowded. Sims has fallen behind other starters. I think Sims will pitch out of the pen in Atlanta this year.

I know it won't happen in real life. B/c even if things go great the Braves prob won't have the stones to make moves if we are "in it."

But I'd like us to try and flip the old starters and the RPs this year. If they pitch well early look to move Viz, JJ, etc. I think Minter, Sims, etc can come in and we won't see much of a drop off. Same thing with Dickey and Colon...I'm hoping at least one of Blair, Wisler, Newcombe, Weigel can show they are ready. Maybe more. If wer're riding a good luck of knuckleball I'd love to flip Dickey to another team but I bet we'll keep him if we are w/i 10 games of a wildcard.

I'm not talking about flipping guys just to do it. I'd only do that if it's the deadline and we are out of if. I'm talking about looking to be agressive to land some useful pieces. Even if they are talented pieces that are far away. Because we should have a lot of SP and RP ready to go by the All star break if not before. Hopefully there will be some pitching starved teams.

[striker42]

I know it won't happen in real life. B/c even if things go great the Braves prob won't have the stones to make moves if we are "in it."

But I'd like us to try and flip the old starters and the RPs this year. If they pitch well early look to move Viz, JJ, etc. I think Minter, Sims, etc can come in and we won't see much of a drop off. Same thing with Dickey and Colon...I'm hoping at least one of Blair, Wisler, Newcombe, Weigel can show they are ready. Maybe more. If wer're riding a good luck of knuckleball I'd love to flip Dickey to another team but I bet we'll keep him if we are w/i 10 games of a wildcard.

I'm not talking about flipping guys just to do it. I'd only do that if it's the deadline and we are out of if. I'm talking about looking to be agressive to land some useful pieces. Even if they are talented pieces that are far away. Because we should have a lot of SP and RP ready to go by the All star break if not before. Hopefully there will be some pitching starved teams.

I think we signed (or traded for) guys like Colon, Dickey, Garcia, and Johnson to the deals we did so that we would have flexibility this year. If we're "in it" and they're contributing then we keep them and have an interesting stretch run. However, if we're well out of it then we have a couple guys we can flip for useful prospects.

If they're terrible and have no value then we can release them and we're not on the hook for anything after this year.

It's pretty smart. Flexibility and no long term commitment.

[Enscheff]

Interesting that he sees Minter as a 1-inning guy (although just about all RPs are now, at least until you get to the playoffs) after his college career as a starter.

As for Demeritte, I'd say it's more like: 10% above-average starting 2B, 20% below-average starting 2B, 50% bench bat, 20% never plays in the majors. A guy with that kind of bat and glove seems like he'll probably have a place in the majors, it just may not be in the starting lineup and it may not be for very long.

Agreed. TD's floor is a defensive bench player with some occasional power. No prospect in the game is either a starter or out of the game. That is a completely moronic opinion to have. It's statements like that from Law that greatly lowers my opinion of him.

WRT his take on Riley...that's pretty much what I've read about him from almost everyone, and all Law does is echo the same stuff we all read too. To me, Riley is a non-prospect at the MLB level.

[smootness]

Agreed. TD's floor is a defensive bench player with some occasional power. No prospect in the game is either a starter or out of the game. That is a completely moronic opinion to have. It's statements like that from Law that greatly lowers my opinion of him.

WRT his take on Riley...that's pretty much what I've read about him from almost everyone, and all Law does is echo the same stuff we all read too. To me, Riley is a non-prospect at the MLB level.

I get his point, which is that he's either going to figure it out and drop the Ks or he's not. It's just that he thinks that if he does drop the Ks, he's an MLB starter and if he doesn't, he won't be able to hit well enough as he climbs to continue climbing. I just disagree on that point and think that even with a bunch of Ks, he's potentially useful as a bench guy.

I also think Law says some things intended to get a point across rather than being exactly what he means. For example, I think he's trying to say there that he's a big-time boom-or-bust guy and the chances are better that he busts. I think if you pushed him on it, he would agree there's a greater than 0% chance he is a bench guy.

[Russ2dollas]

I think we signed (or traded for) guys like Colon, Dickey, Garcia, and Johnson to the deals we did so that we would have flexibility this year. If we're "in it" and they're contributing then we keep them and have an interesting stretch run. However, if we're well out of it then we have a couple guys we can flip for useful prospects.

If they're terrible and have no value then we can release them and we're not on the hook for anything after this year.

It's pretty smart. Flexibility and no long term commitment.

agree.

I guess what i'm trying to say is there is a legit possibility that we could be "in it" and have one of Blair, Wisler, Newcombe or Weigel ready. I think it's probable that one of those guys would be ready and they'd be the same or better than a colon or Dickey. I just don't think we'd do the trade b/c the optics look bad.

For example we're 3 games out of the WC. Dickey has a 5 ERA. Somebody is willing to give up a B prospect or better depending on how much money we eat. Newcombe is being Newcombe but cut his walks by half.

[bravesfanMatt]

agree.

I guess what i'm trying to say is there is a legit possibility that we could be "in it" and have one of Blair, Wisler, Newcombe or Weigel ready. I think it's probable that one of those guys would be ready and they'd be the same or better than a colon or Dickey. I just don't think we'd do the trade b/c the optics look bad.

For example we're 3 games out of the WC. Dickey has a 5 ERA. Somebody is willing to give up a B prospect or better depending on how much money we eat. Newcombe is being Newcombe but cut his walks by half.

No one is giving up a B prospect for a 40+ pitcher with a 5 ERA. the question is if Dickey as a 3.5 ERA and Newk is dominating and we are 1 game out of the Wild Card, do we trade Dickey or who ever for a B+ prospect and let Newk have that spot. do the Braves have the coconuts to make that deal.

[smootness]

agree.

I guess what i'm trying to say is there is a legit possibility that we could be "in it" and have one of Blair, Wisler, Newcombe or Weigel ready. I think it's probable that one of those guys would be ready and they'd be the same or better than a colon or Dickey. I just don't think we'd do the trade b/c the optics look bad.

For example we're 3 games out of the WC. Dickey has a 5 ERA. Somebody is willing to give up a B prospect or better depending on how much money we eat. Newcombe is being Newcombe but cut his walks by half.

If Newcomb cuts his walks by half, he's a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.

[Russ2dollas]

No one is giving up a B prospect for a 40+ pitcher with a 5 ERA. the question is if Dickey as a 3.5 ERA and Newk is dominating and we are 1 game out of the Wild Card, do we trade Dickey or who ever for a B+ prospect and let Newk have that spot. do the Braves have the coconuts to make that deal.

Better example. I think Jamie Garcia is the one that we could get a big fish for....

Change the example around like you did....but that was my point. I'd say there is a decent chance we could move someone like Colon and bring in someone who is just as good. I think it's a higher chance in the pen. We might be able to get a lot for Viz and lose nothing with Minter.

I don't think we have the stones to do it. And I dont' want to route against the Braves to be out of it.

[striker42]

agree.

I guess what i'm trying to say is there is a legit possibility that we could be "in it" and have one of Blair, Wisler, Newcombe or Weigel ready. I think it's probable that one of those guys would be ready and they'd be the same or better than a colon or Dickey. I just don't think we'd do the trade b/c the optics look bad.

For example we're 3 games out of the WC. Dickey has a 5 ERA. Somebody is willing to give up a B prospect or better depending on how much money we eat. Newcombe is being Newcombe but cut his walks by half.

I think if we're in it and Newcomb is clearly a better option than Dicky then Dickey isn't going to block him. We'd definitely trade Dickey and then "leak" afterwards that we would have DFA'd him if we hadn't found a trade partner.

In any event, I find it highly, highly unlikely that all of Teheran, Colon, Dickey, Garcia, and Folty make it through the season healthy. I think there will be plenty of innings to be had.

[Russ2dollas]

I think if we're in it and Newcomb is clearly a better option than Dicky then Dickey isn't going to block him. We'd definitely trade Dickey and then "leak" afterwards that we would have DFA'd him if we hadn't found a trade partner.

In any event, I find it highly, highly unlikely that all of Teheran, Colon, Dickey, Garcia, and Folty make it through the season healthy. I think there will be plenty of innings to be had.

That's valid. I'm not sure it will be that obvious. If the guy sucks it will be easy. But if they are solid 4th starters....

When teams feel like they are in it they don't like the youth movement.

Hopefully we'll be in a space where those guys all look good. Big year for Blair and Wisler too.

[bravesfanMatt]

If Newcomb cuts his walks by half, he's a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.


If Newk had half the walks last year, his WHiP would have been 1.06 and his ERA would probably been sub 3 again. He would have been top 15 for certain.

[Enscheff]

Looks like FG is going to even higher on the Braves system:

12:44
Greg: How many Braves do you think will make your top-100?
12:44
Eric A Longenhagen: 8
12:45
Eric A Longenhagen: In no particular order…Maitan, Acuna, Newcomb, Fried, Allard, Anderson, Swanson, Albies, Gohara
12:45
Eric A Longenhagen: That’s 9

[bravesfanMatt]

I am really surprised that Gohard has made so many lists. that AFL performance is being a bit over valued IMO... don't get me wrong.. I am happy about it.

[Enscheff]

I am really surprised that Gohard has made so many lists. that AFL performance is being a bit over valued IMO... don't get me wrong.. I am happy about it.

I may have been too low on Gohard and Anderson. I will happily eat crow if they both turn into valuable Top 100 guys.

I still see no logical way Gohard can be ranked higher than Touki or Newcomb though, so I wouldn't be shocked to see 10 guys in FG's Top 100.

He also said he will have about 150 guys with 50+ FV ratings, so the difference between 50-100 and 100-150 will be almost nothing.

[bravesfanMatt]

I may have been too low on Gohard and Anderson. I will happily eat crow if they both turn into valuable Top 100 guys.

I still see no logical way Gohard can be ranked higher than Touki or Newcomb though, so I wouldn't be shocked to see 10 guys in FG's Top 100.

I would not put him over Touki either.. touki just has sick stuff and looked like he was starting to figure it out. But I think evaluators need to see another season of improvements I guess. Touki could be a fast riser on a lot of lists if he comes out fast.

[Tapate50]

I may have been too low on Gohard and Anderson. I will happily eat crow if they both turn into valuable Top 100 guys.

I still see no logical way Gohard can be ranked higher than Touki or Newcomb though, so I wouldn't be shocked to see 10 guys in FG's Top 100.

He also said he will have about 150 guys with 50+ FV ratings, so the difference between 50-100 and 100-150 will be almost nothing.

I can see Touki barely on the outside looking in, but Soroka?

[thethe]

Bow before the greatness of the braves front office. So happy to have Roy Clark back.

[smootness]

Looks like FG is going to even higher on the Braves system:

12:44
Greg: How many Braves do you think will make your top-100?
12:44
Eric A Longenhagen: 8
12:45
Eric A Longenhagen: In no particular order…Maitan, Acuna, Newcomb, Fried, Allard, Anderson, Swanson, Albies, Gohara
12:45
Eric A Longenhagen: That’s 9

Really surprising to me that they'll also have Gohara in the top 100. That move is looking better and better, though it obviously could still turn out poorly for us. The fact that we will have 9 top 100 guys that don't include Soroka or Touki is pretty exciting.

[bravesfanMatt]

Really surprising to me that they'll also have Gohara in the top 100. That move is looking better and better, though it obviously could still turn out poorly for us. The fact that we will have 9 top 100 guys that don't include Soroka or Touki is pretty exciting.

for real. I loved Mallex and still think he has a good future. But to get a top 100 was not expected. MLB is the only list so far.

[thethe]

Really surprising to me that they'll also have Gohara in the top 100. That move is looking better and better, though it obviously could still turn out poorly for us. The fact that we will have 9 top 100 guys that don't include Soroka or Touki is pretty exciting.

And he has crazy amount of helium. Scouts love what they saw last year so if he turned the corner you are looking at yet another top flight arm.

[Preacher]

And he has crazy amount of helium. Scouts love what they saw last year so if he turned the corner you are looking at yet another top flight arm.

yea if he's turned the corner you're looking at a big lefty with a potential ++ fastball and a good breaking ball. Sounds like he could be a high-leverage reliever at the least.

[TheBravos]

yea if he's turned the corner you're looking at a big lefty with a potential ++ fastball and a good breaking ball. Sounds like he could be a high-leverage reliever at the least.

^^^

[cajunrevenge]

Whats Goharas surplus value. Inquiring minds must know!

[clvclv]

Whats Goharas surplus value. Inquiring minds must know!

1.26 gmlfWARxyz + $86

Oh yeah - and a hot dog and a Coke if you can tell someone that at the Chop House on April 14th.

[TheBravos]

X 3.14

[Enscheff]

Nice to see the resident morons reveling in their shared stupidity.

Derp derp!'

[thethe]

Do you believe that surplus value for an individual prospect is a valuable analysis? Are you not concerned with the extreme volitatily that is inherent with prospects?

[nsacpi]

Whats Goharas surplus value. Inquiring minds must know!

that can only be discerned after the crazy helium dissipates

[Enscheff]

Do you believe that surplus value for an individual prospect is a valuable analysis? Are you not concerned with the extreme volitatily that is inherent with prospects?

The volatility of prospect value is a given. That's why they are traded in packages for established MLB players. Why would something so thoroughly understood concern me?

[nsacpi]

Do you believe that surplus value for an individual prospect is a valuable analysis? Are you not concerned with the extreme volitatily that is inherent with prospects?

i would say there is useful information to be found in looking at the historical data for prospects in various ranking ranges...let's say we trade for a prospect ranked about 40...the historical record for prospects ranked around that point is a good starting point...it is not the end of the discussion but certainly should be part of it

[thethe]

i would say there is useful information to be found in looking at the historical data for prospects in various ranking ranges...let's say we trade for a prospect ranked about 40...the historical record for prospects ranked around that point is a good starting point...it is not the end of the discussion but certainly should be part of it

That's fair but I just think people tend to overlook that conclusions from statistics are drawn from immense sample sizes.

[bravesfanMatt]

i would say there is useful information to be found in looking at the historical data for prospects in various ranking ranges...let's say we trade for a prospect ranked about 40...the historical record for prospects ranked around that point is a good starting point...it is not the end of the discussion but certainly should be part of it

Well. What is the historical data for 40. I have to know.

[nsacpi]

That's fair but I just think people tend to overlook that conclusions from statistics are drawn from immense sample sizes.

big samples are better than small samples...but sometimes all you have is a small sample and that can be useful as well

[nsacpi]

Well. What is the historical data for 40. I have to know.

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

[cajunrevenge]

The volatility of prospect value is a given. That's why they are traded in packages for established MLB players. Why would something so thoroughly understood concern me?

Because its that surplus value thinking that brought us the Olivera trade.


Surplus value only works if you scout correctly.

[nsacpi]

Because its that surplus value thinking that brought us the Olivera trade.

Even though he himself is not a baseball man Coppy is surrounded by many good baseball men within the Braves organization...and its ok for them to get it wrong once in a while...no need to blame surplus value thinking...leave the scapegoating to our leaderless feeler

[bravesfanMatt]

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

I am 50% certain that 100% of the time there should be no math involved.

[nsacpi]

I am 50% certain that 100% of the time there should be no math involved.

you are ∞ly wise