Playoff Rotation, Kris Medlen, etc...

[The Chosen One]

Only a few more weeks until the playoffs, and barring a Nationals takeover, it's safe to say we're going to play a real series this time, instead of a one game play-in.

Kris Medlen has been exceptionally good the last 9 starts. Finally back over .500 again.

He's making a strong case to start a Game 2.

If we start the series at home instead of away in a 2-2-1, I'd go:

H-Minor
H-Wood/Teheran
A-Medlen
A-Wood/Teheran (if up 2-1)
H-Minor

We start the series on the road in a 2-2-1, I'd go:
A-Minor
A-Medlen
H-Wood/Teheran
H-Minor
A-Medlen

Not a knock on Minor, but Medlen actually pitched pretty decent in the NLWC game... had it not been for Chipper's error. I probably could switch Minor and Medlen either way at this point.

I'm seriously hoping Wood/Teheran don't burn out here at the end... because it'd tempt Fredi extremely to use Maholm.

[Bdawg2309]

start maholm on the road:eusa_dance:

[Dalyn]

start maholm on the road:eusa_dance:

:Gasp:

[bravebonebook]

He helped by winning some games this year but the only thing Maholm should be doing during the play-offs is help the other guys carry their bags to their rooms for away games.

[gtcway]

What are you guys thinking? Everyone knows that you can't have a playoff rotation without a veteran presence going in game one or two. Silly rabbits

[nsacpi]

If we play the Reds, we should probably try to minimize the number of games our two flyball pitchers (Minor and Teheran) pitch there.

[Julio3000]

I think that giving JT a home start would be a good plan.

[zitothebrave]

I would generally agree. I think Medlen's vet presence would do better on the road than Julio/Wood who we should minimize on the road.

[nsacpi]

I would generally agree. I think Medlen's vet presence would do better on the road than Julio/Wood who we should minimize on the road.

So in the first round assuming we have the home field advantage something like this:

Game 1 (Home) Minor
Game 2 (Home) Teheran
Game 3 (Away) Medlen
Game 4 (Away) Wood
Game 5 (Home) Minor

[NYCBrave]

In the NLDS, it looks like the schedule breaks down so that if we want to go with a 3 man rotation, we'd have to bring back our game 1 starter (Minor?) for game 4 on three days rest, but our game 5 starter (Teheran/Medlen) would have full rest.

[sturg33]

How is the schedule?

Game 1 - Thursday
Game 2 - Friday
Saturday - Off
Game 3 - Sunday?
Game 4 - Monday
Tuesday - Off
Game 5 - Wednesday

Is that right?

[zitothebrave]

In the NLDS, it looks like the schedule breaks down so that if we want to go with a 3 man rotation, we'd have to bring back our game 1 starter (Minor?) for game 4 on three days rest, but our game 5 starter (Teheran/Medlen) would have full rest.

Yes that's how it usually shakes out. If we're up 2-1 then we shouldn't make Minor go out on game 4.

[The Chosen One]

I think Teheran would be better suited on the road, because he's a power pitcher.

Wood is more of a finesse guy than Teheran, and I'd rather him pitch at home. Although it wouldn't bother me either way if the roles were reversed. These guys have to get baptized sometime.

[emk418]

First round is clearly Minor, Teheran, Medlen(not necessarily in that order. Our offense is not making me confident in going on any run in the playoffs but with Medlen turning it around the last month or so I'm loving our big 3 in the playoffs regardless of experience.

I start Teheran game two regardless in order for him to get a home start.

[braves31win]

How is the schedule?

Game 1 - Thursday
Game 2 - Friday
Saturday - Off
Game 3 - Sunday?
Game 4 - Monday
Tuesday - Off
Game 5 - Wednesday

Is that right?

Damn, I just found all of you guys that used to be on Scout, don't post much but missed the insight.

That schedule looks correct

Just stumbled upon this today and it looks like post season sched was just officially announced

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9631326/mlb-2013-major-league-baseball-postseason-schedule

[The Chosen One]

That's interesting becuase if I remember correctly, all those past Game 5's we lost at home in the NLDS before, were days immediately after Game 4, no off day.

[mfree80]

Not sure I would disagree with anything you guys are saying, but I would note that Minor has been very good on the road.... maybe better than at home, and certainly our best pitcher in the other guys park.

[nsacpi]

Not sure I would disagree with anything you guys are saying, but I would note that Minor has been very good on the road.... maybe better than at home, and certainly our best pitcher in the other guys park.

Not to look too far ahead, but once you get to the seven game series, games 1 and 5 will be one home and one road. So while going in game 1 in the first round might preclude Minor from pitching on the road, this wouldn't be the case in subsequent series. That game he just pitched against the Phillies makes me think he'll match up well against the other team's ace and give us a chance to win.

[NYCBrave]

Not sure I would disagree with anything you guys are saying, but I would note that Minor has been very good on the road.... maybe better than at home, and certainly our best pitcher in the other guys park.

All that will really mean for us is more consideration to pitching him in game 4 on three days rest.

[stpeteirish]

If we end up the 3 seed game 4 (if necessary) is at home. You could use Maholm there rather than Wood or your game one starter on short rest. In the more likely event that games on and two are at home I wouldn't use Maholm at all. Not sure who I'd use in a game 4 on the road, but you want your best guy rested and ready if there'a a game five.

If we've down two to one on the road you have to use your game one starter in game 4 on short rest rather than Maholm/Wood.

[cajunrevenge]

What I would do.

Game 1 - Minor
Game 2 - Teheran

Game 3- Medlen
Game 4- Minor - Pull him after 5. We should have 8 relievers including Wood and they should all be available for this game.

Game 5 - Teheran - Our best starter but I dont want him on short rest.

[The Chosen One]

With the off day between 4 and 5, it wouldn't be on short rest I think.

[The Chosen One]

The 2003 Chicago series, we had Hampton pitch Game 2 and 5 (on short rest). Ortiz pitched G1 and 4 on short rest.

2002, we had Glavine pitch G1 and G4 (on short rest), and G2 and G5 was Millwood on short rest.

[NYCBrave]

Maholm should not even be considered an option.

[tululush]

Bc of that alone Fredi will use him. Watch him pitch game 2 or 3.


Maholm should not even be considered an option.

[cajunrevenge]

With the off day between 4 and 5, it wouldn't be on short rest I think.

Thats why he goes game 2, so he gets 2 starts but doesnt go on short rest.

[lwj10jr]

any word on Beachy since he threw light catch 5 days ago? Not that I'm holding my breath on him returning, but just haven't heard any new news lately.

[Runnin]

Looks like we are running out of pitchers at the wrong time. It really sucks because it's been such a good season so far.

[zitothebrave]

Looks like we are running out of pitchers at the wrong time. It really sucks because it's been such a good season so far.

As long as Minor, Medlen, Julio, and Wood are good to go for the post season I'll cope. Our offense is more of a concern because that's what we're supposed to be winning games with. As much as I hate Loe and Garcia them getting a few starts in September si hardly damning for the team.

[thethe]

Medlen might be the best bet for our game 1 starter at this point. Minor location is starting to waiver a little bit. Leaving a lot of pitching out over the plate.

[Tapate50]

Minor is still going to be one of our top options. I would sprinkled a little Wood in there with that funky delivery to shake it up once a series.

[zitothebrave]

Minor had a bad start! ZOMG!!!!

We get it thethe you really like Medlen. You've been reluctant to consider Minor the staff ace all year.

Unless Minor keeps struggling he goes game 1 period. Minor is the leader on our staff in pretty much every meaningful statistic. He is a flyball pitcher so yes he'll get stung by the long ball. Conversely though he's striking out more guys and walking less than Medlen. Is Medlen the hotter hand now? Yes, but has minor actually been sucking? No. So for me there's no reason to not let our best pitcher start game one unless he keeps struggling. FWIW Minor's bad games in the last month and change have pretty much all come against the Marlins. Since August he's had 7 starts, allowed 22 runs to cross the plate and 13 of them came against the Marlins, 4 more came in that start in Washington where he only went 1.2. Basically he has 4 total **** starts, then a good start against Washington, a shutdown start against Philly (hooray offense), and a damn good start against the Cardinals.

Here's the biggest reason JMO that Minor should be our game one starter, he has had 2 starts all yeaer where he hasn't completed 6 innings. One was the trainwreck game against the Nats where he didn't get a single break and walked way more guys than normal, the other was the second start of the season against the Mets. Minor is a virtual lock to make it 6 even in his "bad" starts. Medlen has had 7 starts where he didn't complete 6 innings, though one was for injury I believe (against Toronto) Medlen to date has also not gone above 7 IP. Minor has exceeded that 3 times.

So while Medlen is the hot hand, and him being the hot hand makes him very valuable he shouldn't supplant Minor. Where I think Medlen's value is that we can slot him at 2 or 3 depending on opponent to neutralize parks as much as possible. If we get the 1 seed you slot him 3 because the road starts will be more taxing and you wouldn't want Julio and Wood making them.

[nsacpi]

I think there are a couple issues for setting up the rotation in the first round.

First, do we want to avoid having the two rookies start both potential road games. I think the answer is yes and the way to do that is to have Teheran start game 2.

Second, do we want Medlen or Minor pitching game 1. The way the rotation is now set up, it would be Medlen's turn to pitch next after the regular season ends. I would go with Medlen in game 1. He is a bit sharper than Minor at the moment. The exception would be if we draw the Reds in that series. Because of their ballpark, I'd rather have Medlen (who is more of a groundball pitcher than Minor) start there.

So the rotation should be:

Game 1 Medlen
Game 2 Teheran
Game 3 Minor
Game 4 Wood
Game 5 Medlen

Unless we draw the Reds, in which case Medlen and Minor should be reversed.

[thethe]

I don't see why its a foregone conclusion that Minor is our best pitcher. Don't get me wrong I think Minor is a borderline ace but Medlen is really rounding into form and is flashing similarities to his 2012 form.

[nsacpi]

If you look at the second half numbers, Medlen has a small edge in FIP over Minor, and a significant edge in xFIP.

I think when it comes to making decisions for the post-season, second half performance is more indicative than numbers for the whole season. Using that reasoning, I would rate Medlen over Minor, and BJ over Schafer (if we need to make a choice between those two).

[yeezus]

I don't see why its a foregone conclusion that Minor is our best pitcher. Don't get me wrong I think Minor is a borderline ace but Medlen is really rounding into form and is flashing similarities to his 2012 form.

Minor has had a much better season than Medlen. Medlen, in all likelihood, will not meet the dominance, at least not for an extended period, that he did last year. If Medlen dominates his last few starts and Minor gets shelled (4 ER in 6 is not that), then it's a conversation. Right now, it's likely Minor will get out of this little funk and Medlen will pitch like the pitcher that he actually is. He's good-to-very good. Minor is honestly great.

[Carp]

I think I would save Minor for the rd game. I trust him in the rd more than any of our pitchers. Meds is terrible on the rd as is Wood.

Meds at home with as hot as he's been is golden.

[Temo]

I too think Medlen is our best pitcher.

[thethe]

I too think Medlen is our best pitcher.

You could make an argument that Medlen has been just as good this year as well.

[NinersSBChamps]

Call me crazy, but I'd go JT, Medlen, Minor, JT, Medlen.

[yeezus]

You could make an argument that Medlen has been just as good this year as well.

Just as good as whom? Minor? No, you can't.

[thethe]

Just as good as whom? Minor? No, you can't.

Sure you can. Not a huge difference in FIP almost identical xFIP and Minor has a low BABIP while Medlen is at around 300. You could argue that Minor has been a little luckier than Minor this year.

I think both are borderline ace pitchers. I just prefer Medlen over Minor especially since Medlen has rediscovered his control.

[nsacpi]

Sure you can. Not a huge difference in FIP almost identical xFIP and Minor has a low BABIP while Medlen is at around 300. You could argue that Minor has been a little luckier than Minor this year.

I think both are borderline ace pitchers. I just prefer Medlen over Minor especially since Medlen has rediscovered his control.

Full-season numbers favor Minor. Second-half season numbers favor Medlen. I think second-half numbers give you a better indication of what a guy is likely to do in the post-season.

[thethe]

Full-season numbers favor Minor. Second-half season numbers favor Medlen. I think second-half numbers give you a better indication of what a guy is likely to do in the post-season.

I agree that over the season that Minor has performed better. I just said you could make an argument. Medlen has found his groove and is becoming our best pitcher again like he was last year.

Ultimately, Teheran will be better than both of them but for now I like Medlen as our best pitcher.

[Dalyn]

Medlen looks WAY better than Minor right now. Unless things change again, he should be our #1 in the first round.

[NinersSBChamps]

Neither one is an ace pitcher or near that level. The closest thing we have to an ace is JT. In a big game I trot JT out there over anyone else.

[Dalyn]

Neither one is an ace pitcher or near that level. The closest thing we have to an ace is JT. In a big game I trot JT out there over anyone else.

Teheran should not be pushed to make two starts in a series unless absolutely necessary. I want to win and all, but I would like to have him in the rotation next year.

[yeezus]

Sure you can. Not a huge difference in FIP almost identical xFIP and Minor has a low BABIP while Medlen is at around 300. You could argue that Minor has been a little luckier than Minor this year.

I think both are borderline ace pitchers. I just prefer Medlen over Minor especially since Medlen has rediscovered his control.
Meh then FIP is very flawed. Minor has a way better WAR. More Ks. Less walks. Less hits. They really haven't been comparable by a full-season measure. Medlen has been better the last few starts but that's bound to happen at some point. Minor is the better pitcher.

[NinersSBChamps]

Teheran should not be pushed to make two starts in a series unless absolutely necessary. I want to win and all, but I would like to have him in the rotation next year.

He could pitch game 1 and have six days off before game 5. That's normal rest plus a day.

[zitothebrave]

Sure you can. Not a huge difference in FIP almost identical xFIP and Minor has a low BABIP while Medlen is at around 300. You could argue that Minor has been a little luckier than Minor this year.

I think both are borderline ace pitchers. I just prefer Medlen over Minor especially since Medlen has rediscovered his control.

3 tenths of a run is a pretty big difference. And Minor is having a rough stretch right now as well where he's had 3 bad starts out of 5(something about Miami and Minor don't get along) Conversely Medlen is on a 3 game hot run now. If Medlen struggles next start and Minor does well Minor's FIP advantage widens.

Personally I still go Minor in game 1 unless the wheels fall off because he's a virtual lock for 7 innings.

[Dalyn]

He could pitch game 1 and have six days off before game 5. That's normal rest plus a day.


I know. I am talking about innings, not short rest. We need to minimize his usage as much as possible.

[Heyward]

Love Minor but Meds is making a very very strong case to start Game 1.

[nsacpi]

Meds should start game 1. Unless we face the Reds in the first round. I would rather Medlen pitch in their ballpark than Minor. We need more of a ground ball pitcher going in that park.

[bravesnumberone]

Yeah, I think it's all going to depend on who we're facing, what seed we are, etc. But as of right now, in a game 5 or game 7, I want Medlen.

[Heyward]

I know. I am talking about innings, not short rest. We need to minimize his usage as much as possible.

Agreed, should be MM or Meds in Game 1.

[Tapate50]

Man, it seems like just yesterday Zeets the Wise was telling us how Medlen was not going to amount to much as a starter....Oh nostalgia...

[thethe]

Man, it seems like just yesterday Zeets the Wise was telling us how Medlen was not going to amount to much as a starter....Oh nostalgia...

And how Hanson was MUCH better than him. Fun times.....

Medlen is still our best pitcher.

[thethe]

3 tenths of a run is a pretty big difference. And Minor is having a rough stretch right now as well where he's had 3 bad starts out of 5(something about Miami and Minor don't get along) Conversely Medlen is on a 3 game hot run now. If Medlen struggles next start and Minor does well Minor's FIP advantage widens.

Personally I still go Minor in game 1 unless the wheels fall off because he's a virtual lock for 7 innings.

Wow, I just saw this. Ok, so if Minor has a bad start next will you say that Medlen is the better pitcher this year? Of course not because that argument is stupid.

[zitothebrave]

Man, it seems like just yesterday Zeets the Wise was telling us how Medlen was not going to amount to much as a starter....Oh nostalgia...

Never said he wouldn't amount to much as a starter. Said he was average. Has he exceeded that? Yes. But not by too much. And we'll see if he can last as a starter, still have long term concerns because there aren't many 5-10 starters in baseball for a reason.


And how Hanson was MUCH better than him. Fun times.....

Medlen is still our best pitcher.

1. Minor is our best pitcher. Unless Medlen ends the year with better stats than him, that will be true. You said this back in May or whenever Medlen got hot last time and you were proven wrong, it will happen again. Medlen this year has been our 3rd best pitcher in terms of fWAR and watching the games that's where I'd put him. While he may be the hot hand now, Julio and Minor carried this staff through the tough times. Medlen turning it on while we're coasting to the playoffs doesn't mean too much for me.

2. Just goes to show you that you cannot predict pitchers health. Hanson's 22 and 23 year old seasons were some of the best a Braves prospect has had in ages (Julio and Wood have done as well of course but the Braves had a long dry spell)

[zitothebrave]

Wow, I just saw this. Ok, so if Minor has a bad start next will you say that Medlen is the better pitcher this year? Of course not because that argument is stupid.

Minor's fresh off a bad start and since then you've declared Medlen the better pitcher. You're the case in your point!

[thethe]

Everyone knows I feel about Medlen. Not sure why you think that it a shock I think he is our best pitcher. Doesn't mean I don't like Minor.

[zitothebrave]

Everyone knows I feel about Medlen. Not sure why you think that it a shock I think he is our best pitcher. Doesn't mean I don't like Minor.

That's not what you were saying back in July. You said it was Minor and when Julio was hot Julio. It's not shocking, just proves my point that you believe in hot hands. I also have a small hunch that you like Medlen because he's short.

[thethe]

That's not what you were saying back in July. You said it was Minor and when Julio was hot Julio. It's not shocking, just proves my point that you believe in hot hands. I also have a small hunch that you like Medlen because he's short.

Because he is short? Thats such a weird thought process.

[zitothebrave]

Because he is short? Thats such a weird thought process.

That's really about all I can think as to why you have a clear bias towards Medlen. You like underdogs or something. Otherwise I don't get how you can think Medlen has been better than Minor, much less Julio.

[thethe]

That's really about all I can think as to why you have a clear bias towards Medlen. You like underdogs or something. Otherwise I don't get how you can think Medlen has been better than Minor, much less Julio.

I think he is better because Medlen over the last 1 1/2 years has shown that he has been. You think last year was just an absolute fluke. I think it showed what type of ability he has. His control was uncharacteristically off early in the year. Its back now.

[zitothebrave]

I think he is better because Medlen over the last 1 1/2 years has shown that he has been. You think last year was just an absolute fluke. I think it showed what type of ability he has. His control was uncharacteristically off early in the year. Its back now.

Last year wasn't so much a fluke as it was a hot streak. I mean there was a degree of luck but he pitched WAAAAY over his head. If you think Medlen is a 2 FIP pitcher like Wainwright, Kershaw or Harvey, you're dead wrong. I said last year he would have a FIP around 3.5 this year and it seems like I was right.

[thethe]

Last year wasn't so much a fluke as it was a hot streak. I mean there was a degree of luck but he pitched WAAAAY over his head. If you think Medlen is a 2 FIP pitcher like Wainwright, Kershaw or Harvey, you're dead wrong. I said last year he would have a FIP around 3.5 this year and it seems like I was right.

Never even came close to saying he was as good as those guys. Way to stretch the argument.

[zitothebrave]

Your post literally said

"You think last year was just an absolute fluke. I think it showed what type of ability he has."

How am I stretching? If I said (not comparing to Medlen, just making a statement) that 2005 showed what ability Francoeur had wouldn't it mean I think mighty high of him? Possibly thing of him as an MVP candidate? (ok that last one was a dig, but I couldn't help myself)

[thethe]

That statement said his upside. That doesn't mean he will consistently reach that. Kershaw's ability is to shut out every team he pitches against. doesn't mean he will end the year without letting up any runs.

[zitothebrave]

You're wrong Stretch Armstrong

Ability to me is the skillset you have. For example. Freddie's ability would be around a .300 BA with a close to .400 OBP and a good but not great power numbers. He has the potential to hit 60 homers because who doesn't with his size, but that's not his ability. You could say it was his ceiling last year, or his upside but that's not the same as his ability.

[NinersSBChamps]

Nobody caught taptate's "Zito the wise" comment?

[Tapate50]

Never said he wouldn't amount to much as a starter. Said he was average. Has he exceeded that? Yes. But not by too much. And we'll see if he can last as a starter, still have long term concerns because there aren't many 5-10 starters in baseball for a reason.



1. Minor is our best pitcher. Unless Medlen ends the year with better stats than him, that will be true. You said this back in May or whenever Medlen got hot last time and you were proven wrong, it will happen again. Medlen this year has been our 3rd best pitcher in terms of fWAR and watching the games that's where I'd put him. While he may be the hot hand now, Julio and Minor carried this staff through the tough times. Medlen turning it on while we're coasting to the playoffs doesn't mean too much for me.

2. Just goes to show you that you cannot predict pitchers health. Hanson's 22 and 23 year old seasons were some of the best a Braves prospect has had in ages (Julio and Wood have done as well of course but the Braves had a long dry spell)

Actually you were hailing your reasoning at his 4.2 ERA when he broke in as the reasoning he was going to be a back end player, and best in the bullpen.

"Turning it on while we are coasting to the playoffs" - Oh .... wow. I guess thats all POV based, but having a pitcher hot going into the playoffs is the kind of stuff that wins you a championship. That is a good one there. Almost sig worthy.

[zitothebrave]

Actually you were hailing your reasoning at his 4.2 ERA when he broke in as the reasoning he was going to be a back end player, and best in the bullpen.

"Turning it on while we are coasting to the playoffs" - Oh .... wow. I guess thats all POV based, but having a pitcher hot going into the playoffs is the kind of stuff that wins you a championship. That is a good one there. Almost sig worthy.

I don't believe I ever said backend player. I'm pretty sure my statement was "average starter ace reliever" probably verbatim. He's proven me wrong by being a better than average starter.

[yeezus]

Everyone knows I feel about Medlen. Not sure why you think that it a shock I think he is our best pitcher. Doesn't mean I don't like Minor.

It's a shock because it's pretty obviously not true.

[jcc03004]

So in the first round assuming we have the home field advantage something like

Game 1 (Home) Minor
Game 2 (Home) Teheran
Game 3 (Away) Medlen
Game 4 (Away) Wood
Game 5 (Home) Minor

Slight tweak ....
Vs Pittsburg , stl or la (provided we have home field adv. I'd go
Medlen 1,5
Teheran 2
Minor 3
Wood 4
Vs cin I'd go
Minor 1,5
Teheran 2
Medlen 3
Wood 4
I would want Teheran at home either way but switch Medlen and minor vs cin because minor is more homer prone

[thethe]

It's a shock because it's pretty obviously not true.

Its not as obvious as you think.

[bravesnumberone]

In a Bobby Cox world, it would be Garcia/Medlen/Minor

I think we'll see Fredi go Medlen/Minor/Julio

Either way, we need to go ahead and wrap up the division this weekend, so we can start setting it up.

[cajunrevenge]

Its not about who has been the best all year long. Its about who is the best right now. All 3 have been close so you go with the hot hand. There really is no right answer. Medlen was the obvious choice last year but maybe we win that game if Minor starts. Not that Medlen was bad but we loat do to chippers error.

[emk418]

That's not what you were saying back in July. You said it was Minor and when Julio was hot Julio. It's not shocking, just proves my point that you believe in hot hands. I also have a small hunch that you like Medlen because he's short.

What's wrong with believing in hot hands? I think teams in all sports get in trouble because they tend to be too loyal and don't go with the hot hand.....especially come playoff time. I'm the biggest Minor fan out there but Medlen has been our best pitcher for a little while now.

[Nerfherders]

I would go Garcia, Loe, Maholm, and Hale so we can give the kids some rest.

[thethe]

Is there any debate who should start game 1 now?

[bravesnumberone]

I think Avilan probably hopes he starts every game...so the Fredi doesn't come calling later. Then you bring in Medlen, whoever.

[thethe]

Bump Bump Bump

[Heyward]

Not even a debate anymore.

[The Chosen One]

I think Avilan probably hopes he starts every game...so the Fredi doesn't come calling later. Then you bring in Medlen, whoever.

No idea how I missed this gem.