MINORS THREAD TUESDAY 4/18 ... Final results

[rico43]

TUESDAY SCHEDULE

CLASS AAA

Rochester 5, Gwinnett 2

LP: Newcomb (0-1) 4.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 5 K
Peterson 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K
Chapman 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K
Motte 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2

Kazmar 2-5, 2B
Albies 1-4, BB
Adams 2-4, RBI
Freitas 1-4, HR (1st), RBI

LINK (http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2017_04_18_rocaaa_gwiaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb)


CLASS AA

Mississippi 4, Mobile 2

SP: Allard 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
WP: Mader (2-0) 2.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Morris (Save, 4) 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 K

Meneses 1-4, HR (2nd), RBI
Lien 1-2, R, RBI
Curcio 1-3, 2B, R
D. Moore 2-3, HR (1st), 2 RBI


LINK (http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2017_04_18_mobaax_msbaax_1&t=g_box&sid=milb)

ADVANCED CLASS A

Florida 5, Fort Myers 4

WP: Harrington (2-1) 5 IP, 6 H, 0 ER(2R), 1 BB, 5 K
Webb 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K
McLaughlin 1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Watts (Save, 2) 1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB< 32 K

A. Jackson 2-5, R, RBI (C) 2 E
Castro 2-5, 2B, 2 RBI
Didder 1-4, 2B, RBI, OF assist
Acuna 1-4, 2B, R, BB

LINK (http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2017_04_18_floafa_ftmafa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb)


CLASS A

Columbia 6, Rome 3 (8, rain)

LP: Walker (0-1) 4.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
Burrows 1 .1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K
Matos 1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER(5R). 3 BB, 2 K, HR
Davidson 0.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K

Josephina 1-2, SB
Cumberland 1-2, 2B, R, RBI
Concepcion 1-3, 2B, R
---------
Tebow 0-3, R, BB (DH)

A: 5,0732.

LINK (http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2017_04_18_colafx_romafx_1&t=g_box&sid=milb)


All Times Eastern

[bravesfanMatt]

Ok Newk.. no walks today..

[chipchildress]

i don't know much about harrington. he was a louisiville guy and a third round pick. look forward to seeing him progress.

[zbhargrove]

i don't know much about harrington. he was a louisiville guy and a third round pick. look forward to seeing him progress.

From everything I gather he should move up quick but has a very limited ceiling and a high floor. Has a lot of pitches but none are special. Can only really sit in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Figures to be a 4 or 5. Reminds me of a Sean Gilmartin type without the left hand thing.

[smootness]

From everything I gather he should move up quick but has a very limited ceiling and a high floor. Has a lot of pitches but none are special. Can only really sit in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Figures to be a 4 or 5. Reminds me of a Sean Gilmartin type without the left hand thing.

I think most reports were that he's probably going to be a RP eventually.

[bravesfanMatt]

Didder with nice running catch and then threw a seed to Jackson to nail the runner at home.

[bravesfanMatt]

Newk will not have a good game. 2 batters in. Walk. Hit batter.

[bravesfanMatt]

Newk is mechanically flawed. When he is off. He
Is way off.

[zbhargrove]

Oh my Sean... this is not a good way to get on track...

[Braves1976]

Now y'all are seeing why I wanted to sell high on Newcomb this off-season, if he keeps this up he won't have much value as his stock will fall a lot if he struggles in AAA this year as I expect.

I hated the Simmons trade from the start, but if we end up with nothing from it I'll be even more pissed.

[zbhargrove]

Now y'all are seeing why I wanted to sell high on Newcomb this off-season, if he keeps this up he won't have much value as his stock will fall a lot if he struggles in AAA this year as I expect.

I hated the Simmons trade from the start, but if we end up with nothing from it I'll be even more pissed.

The second half of the year was looking so good, though... he really improved his control. Something's wrong... I've always defended the Simmons trade, but if Sean can't right the ship there's no way to defend it other than you win some, you lose some. His raw ability is incredible, but yeah...

[zbhargrove]

We really need two of Fried, Weigel, Blair, Wisler, or Sims to step up and become no brainers for next years rotation (or even this year)... then Allard, Soroka, et al...

[zbhargrove]

Alex Jackson having a real nice start to the year at the plate... 2-2 with an RBI and run scored again so far tonight... and an error. If he can even just be a serviceable catcher and keeps hitting like this he will have immense value.

[Braves1976]

We really need two of Fried, Weigel, Blair, Wisler, or Sims to step up and become no brainers for next years rotation (or even this year)... then Allard, Soroka, et al...

Out of that group, I'd bet on Fried, Allard and Soroka to produce at least two solid starters and I believe Sims could still become a good starter or dominate reliever. Sims might be a much better reliever than starter, should add some average velocity out of the pen too. Wisler will be looked back on as a bust in a few years IMO.

[Braves1976]

Alex Jackson having a real nice start to the year at the plate... 2-2 with an RBI and run scored again so far tonight... and an error. If he can even just be a serviceable catcher and keeps hitting like this he will have immense value.

Hopefully he can become a serviceable catcher but honestly I doubt it. He looks more like a DH to me that might end up a good hitter if he reaches that potential.

[zbhargrove]

Out of that group, I'd bet on Fried, Allard and Soroka to produce at least two solid starters and I believe Sims could still become a good starter or dominate reliever. Sims might be a much better reliever than starter, should add some average velocity out of the pen too. Wisler will be looked back on as a bust in a few years IMO.

I have no faith in Wisler. I think Blair has a shot... his new pitch is working well and I think he was messed up last year. I think Fried could be the best of the bunch, but I do worry about consistent health. Allard and Soroka can both be special. Wiegel is still a wildcard.

Regarding Jackson... I have the same doubts as you, I would just love to see a guy who had such hype in HS start to "find it" with us. Or maybe just be ready in time for the NL to adopt the DH

[CJ9]

Derian Cruz with his 7th error in 12 games. Yikes.

[Tapate50]

We are due for a reclamation project on the position player front. Due !

I'm holding out hope on Newk. Stuff is there.

[Braves1976]

I have no faith in Wisler. I think Blair has a shot... his new pitch is working well and I think he was messed up last year. I think Fried could be the best of the bunch, but I do worry about consistent health. Allard and Soroka can both be special. Wiegel is still a wildcard.

Regarding Jackson... I have the same doubts as you, I would just love to see a guy who had such hype in HS start to "find it" with us. Or maybe just be ready in time for the NL to adopt the DH

I think we pretty much agree, though I may like Wiegel a bit better than you. I think both he and Blair have a shot. I just left them out as I was focusing on my top three starter options and named Sims as someone who I could see having success still as a starter but also he could be a dominate reliever, even a closer IMO. Lastly, it seems we also agree on Jackson so nothing to debate there either. This might be the most we've agreed about multiple prospects in one post, lol.

[Braves1976]

Derian Cruz with his 7th error in 12 games. Yikes.

Yea, not how you want to see him start on defense. Hopefully he can clean that up soon.

[jpx7]

Ok Newk.. no walks today..

I'm still not holding my breath with Newcomb. At this point, I'll be reasonably satisfied if he becomes a great reliever—which would mean the Braves really failed to get great value for Simmons.

[mfree80]

I'm still not holding my breath with Newcomb. At this point, I'll be reasonably satisfied if he becomes a great reliever—which would mean the Braves really failed to get great value for Simmons.

We can pick apart each trade and declare a lot of them to be stupid based on the outcomes of the individuals acquired.... On the other hand, we know that the bust rate for prospects is really high. The Braves have put themselves in a position where a 25% success rate on prospects acquired will bring a very good team in the near future.

Some will not work out as well as hoped and others will be much better than expected. Yeah, we want a sure thing for Simmons, and maybe it won't happen. But someone else like maybe Demerette or Jackson may be much better than expected.

Picking apart each trade will leave a lot to criticize, but the big picture leaves a lot of room for optimism.

[sturg33]

Newcomb needs to figure it out and soon... what is, he 24 now?

[thethe]

Newcomb needs to figure it out and soon... what is, he 24 now?

This is reasonable. He's definitely not a young pup. There's still time though.

[Braves1976]

Newcomb needs to figure it out and soon... what is, he 24 now?

He is 23 but this is his age 24 season as he turns 24 in June.

[Enscheff]

Newcomb is like a Johnson/Kershaw hybrid. Those kinds of arms take a while to figure out thier control.

[msstate7]

Newcomb is like a Johnson/Kershaw hybrid. Those kinds of arms take a while to figure out thier control.

I was thinking randy Johnson/Nolan Ryan. Newcomb may issue the most walks, but he'll also lead the league in strike outs. We'll be comparing youngsters to Newcomb before long. Deal with it

[mqt]

Newcomb is like a Johnson/Kershaw hybrid. Those kinds of arms take a while to figure out thier control.

Snark aside, Newcomb does fit the profile of a pitcher that could blossom later than others.

[sturg33]

The Powerhouse front office traded (headliners)

Heyward
Upton
Simmons
Kimbrel

for

Miller
Fried
Newcomb
Wisler


Thank God for Dave Stewart

[Southcack77]

Snark aside, Newcomb does fit the profile of a pitcher that could blossom later than others.

Perhaps even in the third or fourth game of the minor league season.

[Enscheff]

I was thinking randy Johnson/Nolan Ryan. Newcomb may issue the most walks, but he'll also lead the league in strike outs. We'll be comparing youngsters to Newcomb before long. Deal with it

So does this hybrid throw with both hands? Let's at least keep these comparisons realistic , ok?

[zbhargrove]

I think we pretty much agree, though I may like Wiegel a bit better than you. I think both he and Blair have a shot. I just left them out as I was focusing on my top three starter options and named Sims as someone who I could see having success still as a starter but also he could be a dominate reliever, even a closer IMO. Lastly, it seems we also agree on Jackson so nothing to debate there either. This might be the most we've agreed about multiple prospects in one post, lol.

Lol... don't get me wrong... I love Wiegel... just want to see him keep it up. He's got some major gas.

[TheBravos]

The Powerhouse front office traded (headliners)

Heyward
Upton
Simmons
Kimbrel

for

Miller
Fried
Newcomb
Wisler


Thank God for Dave Stewart

When you put it that way ...ouch. Uptown trade turned out "ok". Simmons trade and Kimbrel trade was pitiful.

Newcomb will struggle like Folty. They might as well bring him up and sink or swim at the deadline.

[sturg33]

When you put it that way ...ouch. Uptown trade turned out "ok". Simmons trade and Kimbrel trade was pitiful.

Newcomb will struggle like Folty. They might as well bring him up and sink or swim at the deadline.

I'd also say Hewyard for Miller turned out awful too. Since the trade his overall numbers are bad

We later got a gift from stewart

[thethe]

I'd also say Hewyard for Miller turned out awful too. Since the trade his overall numbers are bad

We later got a gift from stewart

What about Heywards numbers since the trade if you are going to use that argument?

[sturg33]

What about Heywards numbers since the trade if you are going to use that argument?

Heyward while under the contract we traded was fantastic

[thethe]

Heyward while under the contract we traded was fantastic

What an odd counter argument. Since the deal Heyward/Miller have each had 1 good year and 1 dreadful year. Seems pretty even to me. What about how Upton has done since the deal? Your bias is showing sir.

[sturg33]

Heyward one season (6 war) was 50% better than Shelby's last 2 seasons (4 war). Miller will need to pick up this and next year to match his output

[sturg33]

Upton put up 3.5 WAR in the contract we gave up.

We got 0.5 from Mallex. Friend obviously has a chance to make that deal OK

Simmons has put up 3.4 WAR (and counting) since we traded him... Newcomb needs to pick it up

Kimbrel has put up 3.2 WAR (and counting) since we traded him... Wisler needs to pick it up

[striker42]

Newcomb gave up 4 ER without recording an out. He didn't give up another ER through 4.2 IP after that (1 unearned). This guy just hits stretches where his mechanics get out of whack and he can't locate. Then he'll suddenly get it back and be untouchable.

[zbhargrove]

I do enjoy how all trades that people don't like are "bad trades" but the one trade everyone agrees was a good trade is considered "a gift" from Stewart. I'm plenty critical of some of Coppy's moves... but you cannot berate him for bad trades and say his best trade was just "a gift"

[sturg33]

I do enjoy how all trades that people don't like are "bad trades" but the one trade everyone agrees was a good trade is considered "a gift" from Stewart. I'm plenty critical of some of Coppy's moves... but you cannot berate him for bad trades and say his best trade was just "a gift"

It was a brilliant trade by Coppy but that trade doesn't get made without an idiot at the other end.

The trade was universally praised as a lobslided slaughter from the baseball community.

[thethe]

I do enjoy how all trades that people don't like are "bad trades" but the one trade everyone agrees was a good trade is considered "a gift" from Stewart. I'm plenty critical of some of Coppy's moves... but you cannot berate him for bad trades and say his best trade was just "a gift"

Its all an agenda. It has been since Wren was fired.

[sturg33]

Its all an agenda. It has been since Wren was fired.

It's an agenda to acknowledge that Coppy's biggest trades have turned out to be turds?

I mean.. one of them was so good that it basically balanced the scales, but imagine what could have been

[CJ9]

Predictable thread is predictable.

[zbhargrove]

It was a brilliant trade by Coppy but that trade doesn't get made without an idiot at the other end.

The trade was universally praised as a lobslided slaughter from the baseball community.

The problem is you put all the blame on Coppy for every bad trade, but for some weird reason you have the hardest time in the world giving him credit for the good moves. You give him credit, but you always qualify it with a "but." Its just weird man. I think he's made plenty of mistakes, but I also know Stewart didn't just call him up and say "hey Coppy, give me a crappy pitcher and I'll give you a major leaguer and my two best prospects."

[thethe]

It's an agenda to acknowledge that Coppy's biggest trades have turned out to be turds?

I mean.. one of them was so good that it basically balanced the scales, but imagine what could have been

You are judging trades for kids 2 years later as duds? Really?

[sturg33]

The problem is you put all the blame on Coppy for every bad trade, but for some weird reason you have the hardest time in the world giving him credit for the good moves. You give him credit, but you always qualify it with a "but." Its just weird man. I think he's made plenty of mistakes, but I also know Stewart didn't just call him up and say "hey Coppy, give me a crappy pitcher and I'll give you a major leaguer and my two best prospects."

You can spin it however you want... but if 100% of the baseball community says it was a stupid trade, then I think that lends more credence to Stewart than Coppy.

Regardless, it was trade that was made and good for him for making it... without it, we'd be screwed

[sturg33]

You are judging trades for kids 2 years later as duds? Really?


Yeah.

[zbhargrove]

It's an agenda to acknowledge that Coppy's biggest trades have turned out to be turds?

I mean.. one of them was so good that it basically balanced the scales, but imagine what could have been

Way too early to judge the Justin Upton trade... Kimbrel is a hard one to judge because no one foresaw that closers were going to fetch the caliber of prospects that they have in the past year+... Plus getting rid of BJ was necessary even if I don't agree with how it was done.

[auyushu]

Plus getting rid of BJ was necessary even if I don't agree with how it was done.

Why? There is absolutely zero reason to call the Upton trade necessary. We weren't going to compete anytime close to soon at the time, and we spent almost as much money signing Nick. Could have just kept Upton and not signed Nick and been far better off for the near future on multiple levels.

[50PoundHead]

Why? There is absolutely zero reason to call the Upton trade necessary. We weren't going to compete anytime close to soon at the time, and we spent almost as much money signing Nick. Could have just kept Upton and not signed Nick and been far better off for the near future on multiple levels.

Are we talking about the same Melvin Upton, Jr.? I agree that packaging Upton with Kimbrel hurt the return in the deal, but Melvin had played it out in Atlanta. For the record, I didn't think the Markakis deal was wise, but about all Melvin would have done would have assured us the #1 pick.

Anyone have a scouting report on Devan Watts? He's closing for the Fire Frogs and has some pretty good K numbers.

[Braves1976]

If Coppy strikes out on both the HO trade and Simmons trade those are two trades you cannot completely strike out on and we probably will IMO. So it's true to say Coppy is living off that Arizona trade as if not for it, oh my.

[bravesfanMatt]

Allard with another good outing... I didn't get to listen to any games tonight.. damnit.. But his line looks good. 6 innings and only 71 pitches.

TD still not striking out. If he can have a .260ish average with 20% K rate in AA, then I think he had a very good season. That is a hard hitters league..

[CJ9]

Allard with another good outing... I didn't get to listen to any games tonight.. damnit.. But his line looks good. 6 innings and only 71 pitches.

TD still not striking out. If he can have a .260ish average with 20% K rate in AA, then I think he had a very good season. That is a hard hitters league..

I actually watched the first three innings of Allard's start, and it was kind of weird. Mostly fastball and changeup from what I saw. Didn't see much of the curveball at all. Very strange, but might explain his one strikeout in the six innings.

[auyushu]

Are we talking about the same Melvin Upton, Jr.? I agree that packaging Upton with Kimbrel hurt the return in the deal, but Melvin had played it out in Atlanta. For the record, I didn't think the Markakis deal was wise, but about all Melvin would have done would have assured us the #1 pick.


Well, that's exactly what I was talking about on the multiple levels thing. We would have most likely had the #2 pick last year and this year if we hadn't signed Nick and kept Upton. We also would have gotten a better deal from the Pads for Kimbrel. Win Win.

[50PoundHead]

Well, that's exactly what I was talking about on the multiple levels thing. We would have most likely had the #2 pick last year and this year if we hadn't signed Nick and kept Upton. We also would have gotten a better deal from the Pads for Kimbrel. Win Win.

But the funny thing is, Melvin Upton, Jr., is on a minor-league contract with the Giants. Has pretty much lost all of his ability. The team could have kept him and still signed Markakis, but I don't think I'm alone in being pleased when that jackass was traded.

[Braves1976]

But the funny thing is, Melvin Upton, Jr., is on a minor-league contract with the Giants. Has pretty much lost all of his ability. The team could have kept him and still signed Markakis, but I don't think I'm alone in being pleased when that jackass was traded.

Melvin is bad but surprisingly he did hit 20 homers last year, steal 27 bases and had a 10 DRS in the OF. That is not bad 4th OFer material, sure beats what Boni brings us (esp. since Snit thinks his strong side is left handed which is his weakest side by a lot).

That said, Lane Adams went 2-4 with 1 RBI tonight playing CFer for G-Braves. I'd like Boni DFA'd for Adams asap.

[rico43]

WEDNESDAY SCHEDULE

CLASS AAA

Rochester @ Gwinnett (7-5), 7:05

SP: Wisler (0-1)

CLASS AA

Mobile @ Mississippi (7-5), 11:35 a.m.

SP: Withrow (1-0)

ADVANCED CLASS A

Florida (6-7) @ Fort Myers, 6:35

SP: Sanchez (0-1)

CLASS A

Columbia @ Rome (9-4), 10:30 a.m.

SP: Anderson (1-0).

All Times Eastern

[zbhargrove]

Why? There is absolutely zero reason to call the Upton trade necessary. We weren't going to compete anytime close to soon at the time, and we spent almost as much money signing Nick. Could have just kept Upton and not signed Nick and been far better off for the near future on multiple levels.

I didn't call the trade necessary. I said getting rid of him was necessary and that I didn't agree how it was done. Reread the post maybe?

[zbhargrove]

Allard only had one K... back to Rome

[50PoundHead]

Melvin is bad but surprisingly he did hit 20 homers last year, steal 27 bases and had a 10 DRS in the OF. That is not bad 4th OFer material, sure beats what Boni brings us (esp. since Snit thinks his strong side is left handed which is his weakest side by a lot).

That said, Lane Adams went 2-4 with 1 RBI tonight playing CFer for G-Braves. I'd like Boni DFA'd for Adams asap.

Half the posters here would probably be better than Bonifacio.

[auyushu]

I didn't call the trade necessary. I said getting rid of him was necessary and that I didn't agree how it was done. Reread the post maybe?

Fair enough.

[thewupk]

Melvin is bad but surprisingly he did hit 20 homers last year, steal 27 bases and had a 10 DRS in the OF. That is not bad 4th OFer material, sure beats what Boni brings us (esp. since Snit thinks his strong side is left handed which is his weakest side by a lot).

That said, Lane Adams went 2-4 with 1 RBI tonight playing CFer for G-Braves. I'd like Boni DFA'd for Adams asap.

Melvin had 1.6 and 1.4 bWAR the past two seasons. We can and are doing worse then that.

I don't blame all of those moves on Copy because he wasn't even the GM yet. So who knows how much say he actually had in those considering it wasn't really his decision to call up Swanson.

Whether it's Copy, Hart, JS, or whoever it doesn't really matter. What does matter is the front office has a poor track record with their big trades since Wren was fired. The Swanson/Miller deal was a lifesaver. I will give the FO credit for doing what they did but that type of trade is not the norm and is one of the direct reasons that Stewart got fired.

I like to look at what they have done to get an idea of what we can be looking for in the future as far as getting value in trades. That landscape isn't a good one.

[bravesguy]

This argument is very pedestrian. It is like missing the forrest for the trees.

The whole strategy was developed around high end/ceiling caliber players (primarily pitchers). If you are going to have a middle payroll, you better have the half your team you are paying well to be high ceiling. They looked at what they had and only 1 or 2 of their current roster fit that bill. So they decided to find them in the minors. Simple strategy, trade low ceiling or short term for high ceiling or long term to build from within.

Thus guys like Heyward, JUP (short term) had to go. Melvin, Simmons, Miller (low ceiling) had to go. They had to search the other teams to see what high ceiling guys they could get and go after them. If they can flood the minors with high ceiling guys, 2 of 10 will make it. So thus you need 50 in the system to hope to get the 6 you need to develop for the MLB team.

You cant judge trades based on if the prospect they receive succeeds otherwise you negate the overall strategy. They took what they could get, put them in the system and play the numbers game. If you want every trade 10 of 10 to succeed, then you need to go low ceiling / high floor guys. Wrong strategy (Wren strategy)!

I look at the system and see 50 high ceiling guys, the question now is will 6 succeed?

[Tapate50]

That's the catch with trades for prospects though...No one has a crystal ball and at the time all of the trades were considered a haul. Even the Simmons deal...

I think Coppys sweet spot is the smaller nuanced deals.

The thing I have a growing issue with, is that we have a huge payroll this year but the bench, and pen suck. We basically blew a ton of money on pitchers to hold a spot instead of spending on quality upgrades that could be here for a while. I understand why, it just sucks to see what we got for our money.

Then again that goes back to the façade of "competing" this year I guess. Most of them aren't long term commitments, but its sad to see what the FA market gets you now that we have a decent payroll... its like we are running in place.

I hope that we can "flip" Phillips, Colon, Dickey, Viz, etc... at the deadline for teams in need and I'll at least see why we spent a bit more in FA this season. I would imagine that's the plan, but those fall apart at times (Grilli, Jason).

[chipchildress]

This argument is very pedestrian. It is like missing the forrest for the trees.

The whole strategy was developed around high end/ceiling caliber players (primarily pitchers). If you are going to have a middle payroll, you better have the half your team you are paying well to be high ceiling. They looked at what they had and only 1 or 2 of their current roster fit that bill. So they decided to find them in the minors. Simple strategy, trade low ceiling or short term for high ceiling or long term to build from within.

Thus guys like Heyward, JUP (short term) had to go. Melvin, Simmons, Miller (low ceiling) had to go. They had to search the other teams to see what high ceiling guys they could get and go after them. If they can flood the minors with high ceiling guys, 2 of 10 will make it. So thus you need 50 in the system to hope to get the 6 you need.

You cant judge trades based on if the prospect they receive succeeds otherwise you negate the overall strategy. They took what they could get, put them in the system and play the numbers game. If you want every trade 10 of 10 to succeed, then you need to go low ceiling / high floor guys. Wrong strategy (Wren strategy)!

I look at the system and see 50 high ceiling guys, the question now is will 6 succeed?

stupid is as stupid does

[bravesguy]

It is kind of a shell game at the MLB level in FA. We spend 20M on Colon and Dickey. I agree that seems like a lot, but you have to fill out a 5 man rotation adn playing Wisler and Blair at the MLB level hurt them, the team, and the fan base last year. Bad for development, Bad for business.

[thewupk]

That's the catch with trades for prospects though...No one has a crystal ball and at the time all of the trades were considered a haul. Even the Simmons deal...

I dunno. We traded the Ozzie Smith (on a good contract) of our time for a lottery prospect. There will always be people that spin each trade to fit their narrative of the front office though. But that one screamed horrible value at the time for those who were looking at it.

[bravesfanMatt]

Simmons deal is my least favorite deal of them all. Not because of what we got back but because of who we gave up. Simmons is a Hall of Fame defender, a once in a generation type player. And I even like Newcomb but I still don't think you trade a special player like that.

[Southcack77]

Heyward one season (6 war) was 50% better than Shelby's last 2 seasons (4 war). Miller will need to pick up this and next year to match his output

Is this the new contrarian, smart guy, take on this trade?

Very little of this analysis makes any sense.

[Southcack77]

Melvin is bad but surprisingly he did hit 20 homers last year, steal 27 bases and had a 10 DRS in the OF. That is not bad 4th OFer material, sure beats what Boni brings us (esp. since Snit thinks his strong side is left handed which is his weakest side by a lot).

That said, Lane Adams went 2-4 with 1 RBI tonight playing CFer for G-Braves. I'd like Boni DFA'd for Adams asap.

Well Melvin Upton isn't even in the majors. I guess we could be paying a minor league player 16.5 million to be the fourth outfielder and maybe we'd have some undisclosed extra prospects that could easily have failed and currently be criticized by the same folks who turd on guys like Newcomb.

But of course these people know that if the trade had gone done differently, that Atlanta would have exactly the prospects that San Diego got from Boston and they'd be killing it. Just like they know if the Braves had offered a certain contract to a free agent that he would have jumped on board with Atlanta rather than the team he signed with.

It's all somewhat pointless. Atlanta traded short term assets and longer term assets for what they got. All of the returns were reasonable considered prospects. Some of them panned out, some of them were traded for other prospects and the net result of the reorganization and money savings from these moves is that the Braves have one of the best three minor league systems in the majors.

And people can whine about how particular deals turned out and how they didn't all result in massive outperformance in favor of Atlanta, but that's really what all of the moves together represent.

[chipchildress]

i suspect there was more to it than just trying to get prospects.

the braves had a new stadium to pay for. hard to do that and have millions to pay to players.

[Southcack77]

i suspect there was more to it than just trying to get prospects.

the braves had a new stadium to pay for. hard to do that and have millions to pay to players.

They also wanted to spend a lot of money in the international and amateur drafts.

And they also used money to buy prospects.

And to sign players they wanted to flip for prospects.

Even if you disagree with how they spent the savings, the flexibility was worth something on its own. Particularly to a front office that was trying to remake the team.

The next result is that the Braves ended up with a quality minor league system and some long term major league pieces.

[Julio3000]

I dunno. We traded the Ozzie Smith (on a good contract) of our time for a lottery prospect. There will always be people that spin each trade to fit their narrative of the front office though. But that one screamed horrible value at the time for those who were looking at it.

Yeah, this is how I remember it.

With the caveat that Newcomb could certainly be the late-blooming stud that folks think he'll be, I can't remember a prospect about whom I heard more rationalizations for underwhelming performance.

He's a small conference college guy, so he'll take longer. Minor league umps are terrible. He only had one bad inning. He walks a ton of guys but doesn't get hit hard. Except for the inning where he was bad, he was really good . . . and so on. Of course, all of those things could be true, but I see a guy who just needs to be better.

[Southcack77]

Yeah, this is how I remember it.

With the caveat that Newcomb could certainly be the late-blooming stud that folks think he'll be, I can't remember a prospect about whom I heard more rationalizations for underwhelming performance.

He's a small conference college guy, so he'll take longer. Minor league umps are terrible. He only had one bad inning. He walks a ton of guys but doesn't get hit hard. Except for the inning where he was bad, he was really good . . . and so on. Of course, all of those things could be true, but I see a guy who just needs to be better.

Newcomb repeated the season that made him a prospect and seems on track to do at least that at a higher level.

I don't think that makes him a flop and his stuff otherwise is difficult to hit.

He's got a wide range of possible outcomes at this point.

[Julio3000]

Newcomb repeated the season that made Him prospect and seems on track to do at least that at a half ghee level.

I don't think that makes him a flop and his stuff otherwise is difficult to hit.

He's got a wide range of possible outcomes at this point.

I'm not saying he's a flop, just that there is still a decent gap between expectations and performance. If he's a wild lefty who put it together late, fine. If he ends up as a bullpen arm or fringey starter, that's a pretty ****ty return for Tron and his team-friendly extent.

[50PoundHead]

Melvin had 1.6 and 1.4 bWAR the past two seasons. We can and are doing worse then that.

I don't blame all of those moves on Copy because he wasn't even the GM yet. So who knows how much say he actually had in those considering it wasn't really his decision to call up Swanson.

Whether it's Copy, Hart, JS, or whoever it doesn't really matter. What does matter is the front office has a poor track record with their big trades since Wren was fired. The Swanson/Miller deal was a lifesaver. I will give the FO credit for doing what they did but that type of trade is not the norm and is one of the direct reasons that Stewart got fired.

I like to look at what they have done to get an idea of what we can be looking for in the future as far as getting value in trades. That landscape isn't a good one.

Well Melvin is doing worse than that as well seeing he's not in the big leagues. One has to wonder why there was so little interest in him after the Blue Jays (who aren't burning things up) let him go.

[Enscheff]

I dunno. We traded the Ozzie Smith (on a good contract) of our time for a lottery prospect. There will always be people that spin each trade to fit their narrative of the front office though. But that one screamed horrible value at the time for those who were looking at it.

The problem wasn't getting Newcomb as part of the package for Simmons. The problem was allowing the inclusion of Aybar to water down the overall value of the return. What value did he add other than giving the Braves someone to stick at SS during a lost season? They could have found that on the FA market for peanuts. Why in the **** is a rebuilding team concerned with acquiring MLB talent in a trade anyways?

Watering down the return for a valuable asset has been a common theme during the rebuild, and it's a major issue. The Braves have consistently handled their assets in sub-optimal ways.

The White Sox didn't attach a crappy contract to Sale when they traded him. They didn't insist on the Nats sending back a crappy MLB OFer to take Eaton's place on the roster. They maximized the long term return, which is exactly what a rebuilding team should be doing, regardless of what anyone may think of the individual prospects they got in return.

It's a process over results thing, and few of the posters around here can grasp the concept.

[thewupk]

Well Melvin is doing worse than that as well seeing he's not in the big leagues. One has to wonder why there was so little interest in him after the Blue Jays (who aren't burning things up) let him go.

No idea. There is no way that Melvin is worse than Boni right now.

[nsacpi]

The problem wasn't getting Newcomb as part of the package for Simmons. The problem was allowing the inclusion of Aybar to water down the overall value of the return. What value did he add other than giving the Braves someone to stick at SS during a lost season? They could have found that on the FA market for peanuts. Why in the **** is a rebuilding team concerned with acquiring MLB talent in a trade anyways?

Watering down the return for a valuable asset has been a common theme during the rebuild, and it's a major issue. The Braves have consistently handled their assets in sub-optimal ways.

The White Sox didn't attach a crappy contract to Sale when they traded him. They didn't insist on the Nats sending back a crappy MLB OFer to take Eaton's place on the roster. They maximized the long term return, which is exactly what a rebuilding team should be doing, regardless of what anyone may think of the individual prospects they got in return.

It's a process over results thing, and few of the posters around here can grasp the concept.

my recollection is Coppy claimed that Aybar's bat would offset losing Simmons' glove...my recollection is several of us at the time pointed out what a ridiculous claim that was

[Enscheff]

my recollection is Coppy claimed that Aybar's bat would offset losing Simmons' glove

Which speaks to their ability to evaluate MLB roster construction...

[Julio3000]

my recollection is Coppy claimed that Aybar's bat would offset losing Simmons' glove...my recollection is several of us at the time pointed out what a ridiculous claim that was

That one's not going in his HoF induction reel.

[Southcack77]

Well Melvin is doing worse than that as well seeing he's not in the big leagues. One has to wonder why there was so little interest in him after the Blue Jays (who aren't burning things up) let him go.

I think it is hard to unwind the BJ Upton deal because the salary relief is hard to quantify in terms of prospects and acquisitions. It's most likely the Braves would have cut Upton and then carried that sunk cost for the balance of his contract and that might have affected things somewhat drastically.

Whether that cost outweighs the hypothetical return for Kimbrell at some point if he had been traded -- I don't know. It's just hard to say.

I really don't regret the Simmons deal and would probably do it again. More salary relief. A trade of a relatively fairly compensated player whose value was on defense who figured to possibly be in decline by the end of the deal -- don't have an issue with that. And getting Newcomb back was good. Ellis was maybe a rotation piece and they had no reason to suspect Aybar would face plant - except that Atlanta seems to do that to people. And I have no reason to believe that Aybar being included in the deal was a major cost to the Braves. And he by all rights should have been worth some kind of prospect at the deadline.

In hindsight, you'd take a different package but it looked ok to me at the time and I don't hate it now.

These are murky trades with pieces still in play. Expecting the front office to clearly prevail in every established player for prospects transaction is unrealistic.

I tend to agree with Enscheff though that it isn't so hard to trade established players for prospects, but remain somewhat confused why he gives the White Sox GM such credit for trading higher quality assets. No kidding those guys got better returns. They were better players, signed to cheaper deals, with more control. Damn straight they should get better packages in return.

[Southcack77]

my recollection is Coppy claimed that Aybar's bat would offset losing Simmons' glove...my recollection is several of us at the time pointed out what a ridiculous claim that was

Granted, you have the statement he made to the press hyping a trade he just made as evidence and I just have a theory, but my guess is that Coppy didn't really think that.

I think Coppy viewed Aybar as a veteran on a short deal that might be expected to play solidly at short and then be flipped for some kind of interesting asset at the deadline. Essentially, its the same calculation as Brandon Phillips.

My guess is the Braves were asked to take Aybar's salary as a service to the Angels rather than Angels thinking Aybar required value back.

Unfortunately for the Braves, Aybar completely cratered, which was not something that was obviously going to happen. Any more than it would be obvious that Phillips would start hitting .180 this season.

[Southcack77]

Which speaks to their ability to evaluate MLB roster construction...

You are criticizing them essentially for not overpaying for players that wouldn't make them contenders.

They have their plan, which is to try to be respectable by acquiring major league assets at relatively low costs, with the notable exception of the Kemp deal, which I admittedly still don't quite understand.

[smootness]

The problem wasn't getting Newcomb as part of the package for Simmons. The problem was allowing the inclusion of Aybar to water down the overall value of the return. What value did he add other than giving the Braves someone to stick at SS during a lost season? They could have found that on the FA market for peanuts. Why in the **** is a rebuilding team concerned with acquiring MLB talent in a trade anyways?

Watering down the return for a valuable asset has been a common theme during the rebuild, and it's a major issue. The Braves have consistently handled their assets in sub-optimal ways.

The White Sox didn't attach a crappy contract to Sale when they traded him. They didn't insist on the Nats sending back a crappy MLB OFer to take Eaton's place on the roster. They maximized the long term return, which is exactly what a rebuilding team should be doing, regardless of what anyone may think of the individual prospects they got in return.

It's a process over results thing, and few of the posters around here can grasp the concept.

Aybar didn't constitute value in that deal. He was included solely because we needed a major league SS and they didn't. The deal was Simmons for Newcomb and Ellis. I didn't like it then and still don't, but that was the deal.

[sturg33]

Aybar didn't constitute value in that deal. He was included solely because we needed a major league SS and they didn't. The deal was Simmons for Newcomb and Ellis. I didn't like it then and still don't, but that was the deal.

Uhh... Aybar had come off seasons of 1.5, 4.2, and 0.9 WAR before being traded.

Teams don't just trade away players because "they don't need them." There was a reason for all the rumors about teams asking Coppy for Aybar (specifically the Cards), but Coppy wanted him.

I don't believe for a second that Coppy didn't assign real value to Aybar in that deal

[smootness]

Uhh... Aybar had come off seasons of 1.5, 4.2, and 0.9 WAR before being traded.

Teams don't just trade away players because "they don't need them." There was a reason for all the rumors about teams asking Coppy for Aybar (specifically the Cards), but Coppy wanted him.

I don't believe for a second that Coppy didn't assign real value to Aybar in that deal

You can believe what you want, but it was obvious we weren't trying to actually win anything. Therefore, a stop-gap SS meant nothing to us. The Angels may have included Aybar because Coppy said, 'we need Aybar back so we can replace Simmons' but I guarantee you that in his mind the deal was Simmons for Newcomb and Ellis.