nsacpi
04-24-2017, 12:16 PM
Some hitting data take larger samples than others to provide a reliable indication of a change. BABIP numbers for April for example are pretty meaningless. Of the numbers I look at, hitter strikeout rates are the fastest to stabilize. So I'm going to take a look at what has happened to strikeout rates for our hitters relative their performances in 2015 and 2016. The caveat remains that the sample is small. But this is the one piece of data that could provide an indication of improvement or regression in some of our hitters.
Freeman's strikeout rate so far is 18.2. This would be a career low if sustained. As if the eyeball test were not good enough, another indication that he is moving to a higher level as a hitter.
Markakis' K rate stands at 23.7%, up from 14.8 last year. Last year's number was relatively high for him. So I see a red flag here.
Brandon Phillips is at 12.6, in the middle of the range seen in the prior 3 years. Some of his success this year is due to a high BABIP, but I also think he has a good chance of being a productive player for us this year even with some normalization of the BABIP.
Inciarte is at 17.5, up from a career average of 11.6. I'm a little concerned that the home runs are causing him to get away from what has worked for him in the past.
Swanson is at 25.7, up from 23.4 last year. His issue has mainly been a very low BABIP. But the strikeout rate (mainly because of trouble with the slider) is a reminder that his offensive upside is limited, as it is for any non-power hitter who strikes out a quarter of the time. The issues with the slider btw are also contributing to weak contact and the low BABIP.
Flowers is at 22.5, down from 28.0 last year, which itself was below career norms. We could have a late bloomer on our hands.
Suzuki is at 15.2, up about 3% from his numbers in recent years.
Adonis Garcia is at 15.7, about 1% less than his career average. I'm kind of neutral on this guy. We need an upgrade at third, but mostly he's hit in bad luck (.204 BABIP) so far this year.
Kemp is at 23.5%, very close to his numbers last year and his career mark. I'm middle of the road on Kemp. I think he will be a 1-2 win player for us this year.
Jace Peterson is at 23.7%, up from 16.9 last year. Small sample, but I'm a little concerned he is not building on the solid play we saw from him in the second half of last year.
Freeman's strikeout rate so far is 18.2. This would be a career low if sustained. As if the eyeball test were not good enough, another indication that he is moving to a higher level as a hitter.
Markakis' K rate stands at 23.7%, up from 14.8 last year. Last year's number was relatively high for him. So I see a red flag here.
Brandon Phillips is at 12.6, in the middle of the range seen in the prior 3 years. Some of his success this year is due to a high BABIP, but I also think he has a good chance of being a productive player for us this year even with some normalization of the BABIP.
Inciarte is at 17.5, up from a career average of 11.6. I'm a little concerned that the home runs are causing him to get away from what has worked for him in the past.
Swanson is at 25.7, up from 23.4 last year. His issue has mainly been a very low BABIP. But the strikeout rate (mainly because of trouble with the slider) is a reminder that his offensive upside is limited, as it is for any non-power hitter who strikes out a quarter of the time. The issues with the slider btw are also contributing to weak contact and the low BABIP.
Flowers is at 22.5, down from 28.0 last year, which itself was below career norms. We could have a late bloomer on our hands.
Suzuki is at 15.2, up about 3% from his numbers in recent years.
Adonis Garcia is at 15.7, about 1% less than his career average. I'm kind of neutral on this guy. We need an upgrade at third, but mostly he's hit in bad luck (.204 BABIP) so far this year.
Kemp is at 23.5%, very close to his numbers last year and his career mark. I'm middle of the road on Kemp. I think he will be a 1-2 win player for us this year.
Jace Peterson is at 23.7%, up from 16.9 last year. Small sample, but I'm a little concerned he is not building on the solid play we saw from him in the second half of last year.