.500

[nsacpi]

I'm curious, who here thinks this team will finish above .500. Not can. But will. As in who believes there is a better than 50% chance this team will finish above .500.

The consensus around here (which I share) is that this is a 75-80 win team. If this analysis is correct it would take some luck...but not a lot of luck to get above .500.

Our current pace is for 68 wins. But I think we are playing better than that. Going into today we were one below the pythagorean and another 1 below due to sequencing. So to some extent the 68 win pace understates the underlying performance. I think based on what we've seen so far 75-80 still seems right.

Who will be Brave enough to say over .500? Don't let anyone intimidate you. Have the courage of your convictions.

[jimsnores]

Nope. Not with current starting pitching. Hope I am wrong. If the starters don't improve some (and I do think they will), 75 wins ain't happening.

[The Chosen One]

I'm curious, who here thinks this team will finish above .500. Not can. But will. As in who believes there is a better than 50% chance this team will finish above .500.

The consensus around here (which I share) is that this is a 75-80 win team. If this analysis is correct it would take some luck...but not a lot of luck to get above .500.

Our current pace is for 68 wins. But I think we are playing better than that. Going into today we were one below the pythagorean and another 1 below due to sequencing. So to some extent the 68 win pace understates the underlying performance. I think based on what we've seen so far 75-80 still seems right.

Who will be Brave enough to say over .500? Don't let anyone intimidate you. Have the courage of your convictions.

Im convinced this team is ready for the second Wild Card berth this year.

[CyYoung31]

We need to overhaul our pitching staff.

[nsacpi]

The path to finishing above .500 will have to include getting about 10 WAR from the starting rotation. So far the starting rotation (all of them combined) are below 1 WAR. So obviously someone(s) will have to step up. I think we need the following to happen:

1) Julion has to pitch like Julion

2) One of the other starters has to step up

3) One of the young uns in AAA gets inserted into the rotation and does the job

There are some alternative scenarios that work as well. Such as several of the current incumbents stepping up big time. Or a trade that upgrades the rotation.

Those scenarios are less likely. One way or another we need the starting pitching to improve to get to .500.

To give courage to the timid, I'm gonna step up and be Brave: I think the 2017 Braves will finish above .500.

There I said it.

[50PoundHead]

I'm curious, who here thinks this team will finish above .500. Not can. But will. As in who believes there is a better than 50% chance this team will finish above .500.

The consensus around here (which I share) is that this is a 75-80 win team. If this analysis is correct it would take some luck...but not a lot of luck to get above .500.

Our current pace is for 68 wins. But I think we are playing better than that. Going into today we were one below the pythagorean and another 1 below due to sequencing. So to some extent the 68 win pace understates the underlying performance. I think based on what we've seen so far 75-80 still seems right.

Who will be Brave enough to say over .500? Don't let anyone intimidate you. Have the courage of your convictions.

Not I said the cat. Depending on how things unfold, I am wary about predicting that our record will be better than last year's.

[sturg33]

Well with today's news, I'd say that ship has sailed

[CyYoung31]

The path to finishing above .500 will have to include getting about 10 WAR from the starting rotation. So far the starting rotation (all of them combined) are below 1 WAR. So obviously someone(s) will have to step up. I think we need the following to happen:

1) Julion has to pitch like Julion

2) One of the other starters has to step up

3) One of the young uns in AAA gets inserted into the rotation and does the job

There are some alternative scenarios that work as well. Such as several of the current incumbents stepping up big time. Or a trade that upgrades the rotation.

Those scenarios are less likely. One way or another we need the starting pitching to improve to get to .500.

To give courage to the timid, I'm gonna step up and be Brave: I think the 2017 Braves will finish above .500.

There I said it.

You owe me 500 bucks.

[Enscheff]

The Braves had almost no chance to finish .500 with Freeman.

Without Freeman they have little chance of finishing at .400.

[nsacpi]

Losing Freeman for 10 weeks will cost us 3-4 wins.

[thethe]

Losing Freeman for 10 weeks will cost us 3-4 wins.

And still might be around that 81 win mark.

[thewupk]

And still might be around that 81 win mark.

The Braves were on pace for 73 wins with Freeman hitting at an all-time great level. Let's not get carried away here.

[nsacpi]

Realistic path to finishing above .500:

Replacement level starting point is 48 wins.

Pen + backup catcher: 5 wins. Total 53.

Outfield 10 wins. Total 63. (can slice it several ways, I'm thinking 5 from Inciarte, 3 from Kemp, 2 from Muk).

Freeman/Adams 6 wins. Total 69.

Swanson + Phillips 3 wins. Total 72.

Third. Zero. Total 72.

Flowers. 3 wins. Total 75. Yes I know that would represent a career best. But I believe in the late bloomer.

Starting pitchers. 7 wins. Total 82.

One way or another we will get a bit more from the rotation than we have so far. Jaime Garcia's last start was promising. I haven't given up on Colon, but if he continues to struggle, I could see Sims or Newcomb providing an upgrade. 7 wins from the rotation is not a lot.

A mid-season upgrade at third would be helpful.

[nsacpi]

One more thought on .500. External considerations are favorable. We have three poor to very poor teams in our division. Schedule will help us.

[thethe]

One more thought on .500. External considerations are favorable. We have three poor to very poor teams in our division. Schedule will help us.

I also think your MIF projection is low. But some could argue that others were high.

[nsacpi]

I also think your MIF projection is low. But some could argue that others were high.

the two horses I'm riding hard are Inciarte and Flowers

[cajunrevenge]

My pre seasons prediction was 84 wins. That was assuming full health from Freddie. Adams has impressed me though so I think 78-80 wins is my new prediction factoring in the injury. Before that trade I would have said 75. I had no clue a decent bat like Adams could be or would be acquired.

[auyushu]

One more thought on .500. External considerations are favorable. We have three poor to very poor teams in our division. Schedule will help us.

The schedule has been helping us the entire time really, FG just did an article on easiest schedules so far, and we were third among the easiest schedules. Obviously having the Marlins, Mets, and Phils in our division will keep our schedule from getting too brutal, but our schedule gets tremendously harder in the second half. If we aren't above .500 by the break I certainly can;t see us getting there after with a tougher schedule.

[nsacpi]

The schedule has been helping us the entire time really, FG just did an article on easiest schedules so far, and we were third among the easiest schedules. Obviously having the Marlins, Mets, and Phils in our division will keep our schedule from getting too brutal, but our schedule gets tremendously harder in the second half. If we aren't above .500 by the break I certainly can;t see us getting there after with a tougher schedule.

That's a good point. Although some of our early series against the Mets came before they were decimated by injuries. But yeah, I generally agree that we need to be above .500 at the break to have a good chance of finishing there. There should be some offset, however, from getting Freeman back.

[VirginiaBrave]

Yes. They will. Colon has to go and we have to stop giving leads away. Only a handful under its stupid to give up on the season mid June.

[nsacpi]

-2

Posi-Braves were scarce when I started this thread. They do lots of yapping when the team is winning. Otherwise they lack the courage of their convictions. And when Freeman got hurt they scattered to the hills. Injuries are part of a game. Winning ballclubs overcome them.

A friend of mine told me an interesting story. I don't know if its true, but I'll share it.

According to my friend...

a posi-brave walks into a bar. The bartender asks him, how do you do that?

do what? replies the clueless posi-Brave

Walk without a spine...says the bartender

don't know if its a true story, but I wanted to share it

[nsacpi]

As we near the halfway point of the season, I thought it would be useful to look at the departures from projections of individual players and what it implies for the team's record the rest of this year and next year. I'm going to put the departures from projections into 3 broad categories: 1) those that are "real" and can be expected to continue going forward, 2) those that represent good or bad breaks (you can book those but should not expect them to carry forward), and 3) noise.

I won't say much about category 3. It involves players out-performing or under-performing but not in a major way. In rare cases, all of the deviations in this category break in the same direction and cause the team's record to deviate from projections. I don't think this has happened with the Braves this year. Rather the important deviations have been in the first two categories.

Category 1 is the most important one because those are the kinds of developments that have more long-lasting implications. I think within this category there are three players who have performed in a way that would make me raise their projected production going forward (Freddie Freeman, Inciarte and Flowers) and one that would make me lower their projected production (Teheran). The net though is fairly significant, about 5 wins between those four. So if you think this was a 75-80 win team at the start of the season, with the changes in expected production of those four you would have to think this is now a 80-85 win team, assuming everything else is about equal with the rest of the roster.

Category 2 are the good and bad breaks that you can book but should not anticipate carrying forward. There have been two big ones in the first half. One was literally a break--of Freddie's wrist, which should have cost us about 3 wins over the 8-10 weeks he was out. But this has been largely offset by the acquisition of Matt Adams and his hot streak.

It could turn out that Adams' hot streak is more than a hot streak. The longer it continues the more likely it is something that should be classified as a Category 1 deviation from projections, something "real." I'm not quite ready to go there. It is instructive to compare the improvement we've seen in Adams and Flowers. With Adams a big chunk in the improvement is from ISO. With Flowers it is from the strikeout rate. An improvement in strikeout rate for the kinds of sample sizes we are talking about is more likely to be real or sustainable. The other difference is that the improvement in strikeout rate from Flowers has been going on for a bit longer than the improvement in ISO from Adams.

I don't mean to imply that there is a black and white distinction between what we've seen from Adams and Flowers this year. But I think there is enough of a difference to say that one is more likely to carry forward to a significant extent over the next year.

[Tapate50]

Is Seitzer doing a great job?

I know it isn't measurable, but he seemed like he worked with Dansby a ton getting him out of his funk.

[nsacpi]

-1

Schedule is about the get tougher, but I like our chances of finishing the season above .500

[bravesfanMatt]

-1

Schedule is about the get tougher, but I like our chances of finishing the season above .500

yeah, the Braves had it easy for June.. I think I have us winning 17 games in July.. but my glasses are colored homer for sure.

** edit.. I have us winning more against the gNats this month.. I think they are in trouble.. still a good lineup, but missing Eaton and Turner plus no pen has them very vulnerable.

[50PoundHead]

They play hard and they are out-playing their numbers to this point. Say whatever you want about Adams, but he's helped keep the team afloat. I think Snitker is a terrible--and I mean ridiculously bad--in-game manager, but he must be doing something right.

[nsacpi]

They play hard and they are out-playing their numbers to this point. Say whatever you want about Adams, but he's helped keep the team afloat. I think Snitker is a terrible--and I mean ridiculously bad--in-game manager, but he must be doing something right.

They've been winning some close games, which always helps. Mott, Freeman and even Jackson have recently been given some high leverage situations and handled them well. I think that's going to be a key. If we are to finish above .500, we're not going to be able to rely entirely on the back end of the pen to handle the high leverage situations.

[50PoundHead]

They've been winning some close games, which always helps. Mott, Freeman and even Jackson have recently been given some high leverage situations and handled them well. I think that's going to be a key. If we are to finish above .500, we're not going to be able to rely entirely on the back end of the pen to handle the high leverage situations.

Agree. Everyone in the bullpen is going to have to get tough outs. Interesting to see how Brothers does. Bullpens can be like track relay teams in that you keep handing off the baton and hope the guy you hand it to can keep up the pace. Too few relay runners participating results in exhaustion. I think the one thing Coppolella has done in acquiring guys like Luke Jackson is getting some guys who throw serious gas in the pen. Could be a lot of mixing and matching as the season wears on, but if Snitker can get guys into roles where they can succeed, .500 isn't out of the question.

[thethe]

If we are going to talk about the success of the pen in the second half then I think we have to talk about Minter. Braves aren't going to play any service time game with a reliever whose arm is about to explode. I would be shocked if he isn't on the roster come August 1st...maybe even sooner.

If everything you read about him is true this is a guy that could be relied upon as a high leverage arm immediately.

[thethe]

As we move further into the season the 500 mark seems much more realistic.

This team is good and will only get better.

[Tapate50]

Heyoo!!!

[jpx7]

It was a wild ride, while it lasted.

[nsacpi]

It was a wild ride, while it lasted.

taint over...unlike the wimpy pozzies around here I don't run for the hills when the team loses a few