FG article on Newk

[Enscheff]

Pretty much says what we all know already:

Control has improved, and he will need a change.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/welcome-to-the-strike-zone-sean-newcomb/

[UNCBlue012]

I imagine a vast majority of the change is due to a much better strike zone in the major leagues.

[Southcack77]

That article was about 390 words too long.

[smootness]

Promising stuff. I think Flowers has helped, and it's pretty clear to me that he's taken some off his fastball in order to have a better idea of where it's going, and it has worked so far. We all know he can run it up to 96, but a lot of the time he's sitting 92ish. Hopefully he'll be able to more consistently sit near the top of his velocity once he gets comfortable keeping it around the strike zone.

[Jaw]

It's really incredible that he has been so successful with only 2 pitches. I am hopeful but skeptical that it lasts.

[thewupk]

It's really incredible that he has been so successful with only 2 pitches. I am hopeful but skeptical that it lasts.

Two plus pitches will get you there even without a 3rd pitch. The BABIP and ERA will rise. But a sub 3 FIP is great. His calling card through 4 starts is limiting the homeruns. His K/9 is slightly below average, his BB/9 is slightly above average, but his HR/9 is super low. Not sure if it will last to quite that degree (probably not) but he has always done a great job of limiting homeruns in the minors so that's a trend that will likely continue.

[Russ2dollas]

Two plus pitches will get you there even without a 3rd pitch. The BABIP and ERA will rise. But a sub 3 FIP is great. His calling card through 4 starts is limiting the homeruns. His K/9 is slightly below average, his BB/9 is slightly above average, but his HR/9 is super low. Not sure if it will last to quite that degree (probably not) but he has always done a great job of limiting homeruns in the minors so that's a trend that will likely continue.

would have given up 2 if they had been basically anywhere but SD.

[Preacher]

Two plus pitches will get you there even without a 3rd pitch. The BABIP and ERA will rise. But a sub 3 FIP is great. His calling card through 4 starts is limiting the homeruns. His K/9 is slightly below average, his BB/9 is slightly above average, but his HR/9 is super low. Not sure if it will last to quite that degree (probably not) but he has always done a great job of limiting homeruns in the minors so that's a trend that will likely continue.

Considering there were two bombs in the San Diego game that would've been out in most parks.... I think its safe to say his HR/9 will go up.

I've still been pretty impressed with the overall package so far. I like him.

[Southcack77]

Two plus pitches will get you there even without a 3rd pitch. The BABIP and ERA will rise. But a sub 3 FIP is great. His calling card through 4 starts is limiting the homeruns. His K/9 is slightly below average, his BB/9 is slightly above average, but his HR/9 is super low. Not sure if it will last to quite that degree (probably not) but he has always done a great job of limiting homeruns in the minors so that's a trend that will likely continue.

He doesn't have near enough in the books to even start talking about this stuff.

[msstate7]

Batters can't seem to square him up...

BAA in MiLB (348.1 ip) = .215
BAA in MLB (24.1 ip) = .202

Obviously it's a SSS in MLB, but it matches his MiLB record

[thewupk]

would have given up 2 if they had been basically anywhere but SD.


Even with those two he still would come in below average on the year so far

[thewupk]

He doesn't have near enough in the books to even start talking about this stuff.

Then what do you want to talk about?

[bravesfanMatt]

Then what do you want to talk about?

Colon?

[Super]

Colon Cologne

[Southcack77]

Then what do you want to talk about?

I'm happy to waste time talking about whatever, but let's just acknowledge what we are doing.

[thewupk]

Colon?

there's a lot to talk about there

[Super]

James
12:04 Is Tyler Flowers going to carry Sean Newcomb (and his 2% CH usage) to greatness? I'll hang up and listen
Eno Sarris
12:06 Talked to both about it, and to some extent Flower is a big part of this. But Newcomb said that the change will come out as he goes on and did also admit that he doesn't command it as well and that he threw it more in the minors. Then he said some stuff that you rarely hear that will be in my piece today.

hmm..

[Enscheff]

hmm..

I usually skip Eno's chats because he is one of the 2-3 worst writers on the site (too much fluff about beer and fantasy baseball), but I am very interested in what info he got from Flowers and Newk.

OKBrave and I came to the conclusion that Newk only needs to throw the change 5-10 times per game to keep hitters off his FA/CU combo, so it shouldn't take too much refinement to get it usable.

[bravesfanMatt]

I usually skip Eno's chats because he is one of the 2-3 worst writers on the site (too much fluff about beer and fantasy baseball), but I am very interested in what info he got from Flowers and Newk.

OKBrave and I came to the conclusion that Newk only needs to throw the change 5-10 times per game to keep hitters off his FA/CU combo, so it shouldn't take too much refinement to get it usable.

Did you guys let Newk know this though..

[jpx7]

too much fluff about beer

Worst post you've made.

[Enscheff]

Worst post you've made.

Matt has told you guys several times I drink Zima, not beer.

[Enscheff]

Did you guys let Newk know this though..

Braves FO is hella smart. I'm sure they already know this and have relayed the info to Newk.

[bravesfanMatt]

Matt has told you guys several times I drink Zima, not beer.

Mike's hard lemonade man..

[Enscheff]

Mike's hard lemonade man..

That's right, Zima was during my hardcore college days. I've mellowed a bit since then.

[Enscheff]

These posts by Carp and I happened in the trade thread, but I thought they belonged in here too...

Carp:

Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
I would be interested to see if you can identify any starter that has produced 3+ WAR over more than a couple seasons without throwing a third pitch ~10% of the time. A true 2 pitch guy that was a MOR pitcher or better for an extended period of time.
Without looking, the pitchers that came to mind as popular two pitch pitchers were Randy Johnson, David Price, Chris Archer, Derek Lowe, and Roy Oswalt. And looking at fangraphs, that seems to support my thinking for the most part.

Luckily someone did this for you, using basically the same parameters as you suggested:

https://www.draysbay.com/2013/8/29/4...-pitch-pitcher

And that's only between like 2008 and 2012.

Me:

Crazy that you found an article where someone answered the exact question I asked haha. I was looking for more sustained success than 1 outlier season, but that list of names is informative. Here are the guys that appear on the list more than once (meaning sustained success with 2 pitches, * indicates more than twice):

Archer (we know he is a good comp)
Burnett
Kershaw
Jackson
Gio*
Kuroda*
Santana
Beckett

The question then becomes, are Newk's 2 pitches as good as those guys' 2 pitches? We can't compare all the pitches to each other easily, but we can compare FA velocity. Here are the FA velocities of Archer, Gio and Kuroda over the 3 seasons they posted 3+ WAR as 2-pitch guys:

Archer: 95.0-95.9
Gio: 92.8-94.2
Kuroda: 92.1-93.1

Gio and Kuroda posted those average velocities back when the average MLB FA was more than 1 MPH slower than today, so we can mentally add 1 MPH to account for "velocity inflation".

Newcomb: 92.8

So Newk's FA is sitting a 1-2 ticks below the velocity those guys had on their FA to make being a 2-pitch guy work for an extended period of time. In other words, it doesn't appear his 2 pitches are good enough to sustain success by using only those 2 pitches.

It should also be noted those guys all used a 3rd pitch more than Newk currently does. They had a better FA than Newk AND they used a 3rd pitch more often to get these results.

I still think he needs to add a 3rd pitch, and I still think it needs to be a change. He probably only needs to get that change to about a 45 and use it ~10 times per game to be a truly effective SP over a decent stretch of time. It is certainly doable.

Oddly enough, I have seen Gio comps thrown around for Newk quite a bit. We should all be thrilled if that's what he ends up being.