Analyzing Fried's stuff

[Enscheff]

Fried threw enough FAs and CUs last night that we can take a look at how good those 2 pitches are.

FA: 93.3 MPH, 3.7x, 6.4z

This pitch is classied as 4 seamer, but has below average rise and below average horizontal movement. It has above average velo by about 1 MPH, but we can't be certain how much extra velocity he got due to coming out of the BP. As a SP, this is likely average velo with below average movement...a 45-50 pitch.

CU: 74.6 MPH, -4.6x, -9.7z

This is a good pitch, and likely even better than Newk's. If you think Newk's is a good downer, Fried's is even better. I would hang a 65 on this pitch easily.

He threw 1 CH with good velo delta from his FA, and what appears to be good movement. It's common for guys to ditch the CH coming out of the BP, so we can't say much about this pitch or how often he uses it yet.

In Fried the Braves have a LHer with a useable FA, and a very good CU. I would like to see him get a few starts so we can judge the CH.

[sturg33]

Fried threw enough FAs and CUs last night that we can take a look at how good those 2 pitches are.

FA: 93.3 MPH, 3.7x, 6.4z

This pitch is classied as 4 seamer, but has below average rise and below average horizontal movement. It has above average velo by about 1 MPH, but we can't be certain how much extra velocity he got due to coming out of the BP. As a SP, this is likely average velo with below average movement...a 45-50 pitch.

CU: 74.6 MPH, -4.6x, -9.7z

This is a good pitch, and likely even better than Newk's. If you think Newk's is a good downer, Fried's is even better. I would hang a 65 on this pitch easily.

He threw 1 CH with good velo delta from his FA, and what appears to be good movement. It's common for guys to ditch the CH coming out of the BP, so we can't say much about this pitch or how often he uses it yet.

In Fried the Braves have a LHer with a useable FA, and a very good CU. I would like to see him get a few starts so we can judge the CH.

No kidding...

but the John's feel it more appropriate to get him mop-up work once a week.

[cajunrevenge]

He has had blister problems. I think they are putting him on a limited pitch count to hopefully keep the blister away. He was only going about 3 innings in his starts at AA before the callup. They probably think he will develop faster getting those 2-3 innings in the majors. Given his age and injury history I could see this callup as a reward for hard work. I think they will give him a shot to win a rotation spot next year and this is preparation for that. Might have to shut him down by August to limit his innings but we should have a lot of options this time next year to replace him.



Anyways, I like the data. Dissapointed by his FB but I think the velocity might get better if used a a traditional 1 inning reliever.

[Preacher]

No kidding...

but the John's feel it more appropriate to get him mop-up work once a week.

Meh, I really don't get the angst over this one, they want to challenge him against high level hitters while also keeping his innings down. They've already said they he will go back to starting next year.

[Preacher]

x2

[Chico]

Meh, I really don't get the angst over this one, they want to challenge him against high level hitters while also keeping his innings down. They've already said they he will go back to starting next year.

I don't either...But I've realized most people who come to message boards are here to complain about something. It's some odd default setting people have

[striker42]

It wouldn't surprise me if Fried was overthrowing last night. Might mean a little drop in velo but better movement on the fastball in the future.

[atl717]

I just want a prospect whose stuff makes me say wow. Haven't seen it yet. Hoping Gohara is the guy.

[thethe]

I just want a prospect whose stuff makes me say wow. Haven't seen it yet. Hoping Gohara is the guy.

Folty?

[mfree80]

I just want a prospect whose stuff makes me say wow. Haven't seen it yet. Hoping Gohara is the guy.

Newk's curve?

[atl717]

Folty?

I'm referring to the new wave. But his stuff is pretty damn good and the breaking stuff is improving.

Newk's curve is very good but if his command doesn't improve he's a reliever.

[rico43]

Relating to the blister issue, more than one player who has been both in the majors and minors are saying that the MLB baseball is different this year, more so than normal. It might be a case where Fried needs to get used to the difference.

[Enscheff]

Newk's curve?

Fried's curve is the best we've seen in Atlanta in quite some time. If that pitch doesn't impress you, I don't know what will.

I am genuinely excited to see Touki throw 10 curves in front of a statcast radar.

[Enscheff]

I'm referring to the new wave. But his stuff is pretty damn good and the breaking stuff is improving.

Newk's curve is very good but if his command doesn't improve he's a reliever.

Folty's heater and Fried's curve are currently the best pitches on the Braves roster, in my opinion.

[zbhargrove]

Fried's curve is the best we've seen in Atlanta in quite some time. If that pitch doesn't impress you, I don't know what will.

I am genuinely excited to see Touki throw 10 curves in front of a statcast radar.

Yeah if Fried can get that curve controlled consistently and the change up developed... he could get interesting. That curve was just filthy.

[Bravesfannchar]

Great stuff, Enscheff! Very interesting numbers.

What do Sims' FA / CU / CH look like in comparison?

[Enscheff]

Great stuff, Enscheff! Very interesting numbers.

What do Sims' FA / CU / CH look like in comparison?

I made a similar post on Sims here:

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7186

His stuff was a bit worse his 2nd start. I don't think his repertoire will work in an MLB rotation.

[bravesfanMatt]

I made a similar post on Sims here:

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7186

His stuff was a bit worse his 2nd start. I don't think his repertoire will work in an MLB rotation.


Unless he improves his off speed stuff, he is destined for the pen.

[Enscheff]

Unless he improves his off speed stuff, he is destined for the pen.

He needs to improve everything to be a SP.

It's highly unlikely.

[Pugfan]

I think he'll end up being a good reliever. Don't think his
Overall stuff and command will be enough to be a decent starter. His fastball will probably only sit in the 90-92 range as a starter. Doesn't seem to have great movement on it either. His curve is very impressive and it probably is a 60-65.

[Southcack77]

I think he'll end up being a good reliever. Don't think his
Overall stuff and command will be enough to be a decent starter. His fastball will probably only sit in the 90-92 range as a starter. Doesn't seem to have great movement on it either. His curve is very impressive and it probably is a 60-65.

His fastball might tick upwards a bit. Hard to believe he was billed as a mid 90s guy all through the minors if he can't run it up there even early. I wonder if he is backing it off for some command to start.

I'm hoping he develops into a useful back end guy. That's always been about his ceiling. Will be interesting to see how it goes.

[Pugfan]

His fastball might tick upwards a bit. Hard to believe he was billed as a mid 90s guy all through the minors if he can't run it up there even early. I wonder if he is backing it off for some command to start.

I'm hoping he develops into a useful back end guy. That's always been about his ceiling. Will be interesting to see how it goes.

Never trust minor league radar guns. They're always a couple mph's faster than mlb guns

[Deester11]

I made a similar post on Sims here:

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7186

His stuff was a bit worse his 2nd start. I don't think his repertoire will work in an MLB rotation.
I've put my take on him since Rome. Better mentality, but needs work to pull it off as a SP. I truly think he'll have to be a reliever where if he throws strikes he can be very good in spurts..

[Bravesfannchar]

I made a similar post on Sims here:

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7186

His stuff was a bit worse his 2nd start. I don't think his repertoire will work in an MLB rotation.

Missed this. TY.

[Enscheff]

His fastball might tick upwards a bit. Hard to believe he was billed as a mid 90s guy all through the minors if he can't run it up there even early. I wonder if he is backing it off for some command to start.

I'm hoping he develops into a useful back end guy. That's always been about his ceiling. Will be interesting to see how it goes.

"Dialing it back a bit for control" is exactly the same excuse folks used for Newk not throwing as hard as advertised. Now Newk doesn't have control OR a 97 MPH heater.

Now we are going to use the same reasoning for Fried? Seems silly to keep saying the same erroneous statement over and over.

[Southcack77]

"Dialing it back a bit for control" is exactly the same excuse folks used for Newk not throwing as hard as advertised. Now Newk doesn't have control OR a 97 MPH heater.

Now we are going to use the same reasoning for Fried? Seems silly to keep saying the same erroneous statement over and over.

Newcomb up to about 94 on his FAv per fangraphs, which seems about like what he was billed.

I do not recall a lot of talk other than the hot gun game about his throwing a whole lot harder than that.

Sims for his entire career has been talked about as having a bigger fastball than 90-92. Maybe he's just not throwing his flatter pitch. I don't know. It's unusual though.

[blueagleace1]

In reference to guys stuff (velocity, spin rate, .etc) in majors vs. minors, it's very important to keep in my that the balls are different. A la, why MLB pitchers are allowed to use MLB baseballs on rehab assignments.

[smootness]

"Dialing it back a bit for control" is exactly the same excuse folks used for Newk not throwing as hard as advertised. Now Newk doesn't have control OR a 97 MPH heater.

Now we are going to use the same reasoning for Fried? Seems silly to keep saying the same erroneous statement over and over.

Except Newcomb has gotten up to 97 in the majors.

[cajunrevenge]

Almost every prospect I can remember did not throw as hard as advertised. Whatever the scouting reports say take 2-3 mph off and thats what I expect to see when they get to the majors.

[4maddux_cy's]

I really do not get why they don't use the same ball. That to me seems dumb.

[blueagleace1]

I really do not get why they don't use the same ball. That to me seems dumb.

Yeah. It's a pretty noticeable difference for the guys who are getting their first callup.

[jpx7]

I really do not get why they don't use the same ball. That to me seems dumb.

I'm guessing cost?

[4maddux_cy's]

I'm guessing cost?



Seems a small price to pay to develop your prospects properly.

[jpx7]

Seems a small price to pay to develop your prospects properly.

I'm not sure who pays for the balls at the minor-league level, but I assume—since this isn't just one/some teams, but league-wide—that the leagues purchase and provide them. They operate with very different budgets than major-league teams.

But I'm not arguing for using different balls between levels, just listing a potential reason why.

[Hudson2]

Using a different ball between the minors and majors has to be the most stupid thing I've ever heard in baseball. No wonder some of these guys come up and struggle for awhile.

[GovClintonTyree]

Enscheff, excellent analysis. Thanks for your work.

[Southcack77]

I'm guessing cost?

I know it is a lot of baseballs, but what would the difference in cost really be? Serious question.

[jpx7]

I know it is a lot of baseballs, but what would the difference in cost really be? Serious question.

I assume MLB baseballs are not just different, but better. I'm assuming that a requirement of being better is that they are costlier. I assume someone has done a cost-benefit and decided minor league games and players are not worth the added cost-per-ball (and, remember, there are substantially more minor-league players than MLB).

[atl717]

Other teams have prospects come up and somehow throw harder than expected. Mets come to mind.

[steveAKAslick]

Enscheff, excellent analysis. Thanks for your work.

Seems like a changed man lol...in all seriousness Enscheff offers more insight and analysis than just about anyone on here minus when things get nasty which I haven't seen much of at all since his return from purgatory

[Hulavol]

Seems like a changed man lol...in all seriousness Enscheff offers more insight and analysis than just about anyone on here minus when things get nasty which I haven't seen much of at all since his return from purgatory

Enscheff has been a model citizen, and is to be commended!!!

[Enscheff]

During his start last night, Fried's FA topped out at 96.8, and averaged 92.1. It sat around 90 early, but he was able to ramp it up 2-3 ticks later in the start. This is good news.

He also threw enough changes that we could get an idea of how good it is. 7.5 horizontal and 4.4 vertical are both below average for a change.

The command is currently poor at the MLB level, but everything else he has done suggests he could have fringe average command with more reps.

I'll pretty much stick with my first impressions...


FF: 45
CU: 65
CH: 40
Command: 45

That looks like a long man out of the BP, or a very good LOOGY.

[Russ2dollas]

During his start last night, Fried's FA topped out at 96.8, and averaged 92.1. It sat around 90 early, but he was able to ramp it up 2-3 ticks later in the start. This is good news.

He also threw enough changes that we could get an idea of how good it is. 7.5 horizontal and 4.4 vertical are both below average for a change.

The command is currently poor at the MLB level, but everything else he has done suggests he could have fringe average command with more reps.

I'll pretty much stick with my first impressions...


FF: 45
CU: 65
CH: 40
Command: 45

That looks like a long man out of the BP, or a very good LOOGY.

I think LOOGY is his floor. He should be very good there and could do it today and for cheap.

If we ever had the balls to go to a multi inning reliever model we would have a number of guys who I think would be NICE going through a line up once.

Scouts that watched him seem to think he had a very high ceiling. So we will see how he progresses. He's interesting given this is year two (?) off of TJ.

I don't see how he gets RH out w/o a better third pitch. As good as the curve is, it's going right into HR alley on the RH swing. Klaw seems to be very high on him despite his struggles in the minors.

[Oklahomabrave]

During his start last night, Fried's FA topped out at 96.8, and averaged 92.1. It sat around 90 early, but he was able to ramp it up 2-3 ticks later in the start. This is good news.

He also threw enough changes that we could get an idea of how good it is. 7.5 horizontal and 4.4 vertical are both below average for a change.

The command is currently poor at the MLB level, but everything else he has done suggests he could have fringe average command with more reps.

I'll pretty much stick with my first impressions...


FF: 45
CU: 65
CH: 40
Command: 45

That looks like a long man out of the BP, or a very good LOOGY.

Are you looking at his average for the year or as a starter? I'm not sure how big of a difference each integer represents- but his verticle movement on 8 CH ups yesterday was 8.45, compared to the under 5 verticle movement he had as a reliever.

Also worth noting that throughout his entire career he has generated a ton of ground balls, many of which seem to be the result of his FB which generates a ton of them. That could be a big boon to his FB success, no?

[GeorgiaGirl]

I think LOOGY is his floor. He should be very good there and could do it today and for cheap.

If we ever had the balls to go to a multi inning reliever model we would have a number of guys who I think would be NICE going through a line up once.

Scouts that watched him seem to think he had a very high ceiling. So we will see how he progresses. He's interesting given this is year two (?) off of TJ.

I don't see how he gets RH out w/o a better third pitch. As good as the curve is, it's going right into HR alley on the RH swing. Klaw seems to be very high on him despite his struggles in the minors.

This is just a lost season for Max because of even more incompetence by the Braves, he was pitching injured right from the beginning of the season and the Braves didn't stop this for months.

[Southcack77]

This is just a lost season for Max because of even more incompetence by the Braves, he was pitching injured right from the beginning of the season and the Braves didn't stop this for months.


His injury was blisters. How was it incompetent for the Braves to allow him to get blisters and why would they have stopped him from trying to pitch through them.

His season was so lost that he has made his AA, AAA, and major league debuts as well as his first start of his career, a successful one. Ask him if he considers this a lost season.

[GeorgiaGirl]

His injury was blisters. How was it incompetent for the Braves to allow him to get blisters and why would they have stopped him from trying to pitch through them.

His season was so lost that he has made his AA, AAA, and major league debuts as well as his first start of his career, a successful one. Ask him if he considers this a lost season.

Like I have said before, he hurt his back in his first start in AA and Southern League observers said that he looked injured all season long and should have gone on the DL after that start instead of just getting his second start pushed back.

[clvclv]

Like I have said before, he hurt his back in his first start in AA and Southern League observers said that he looked injured all season long and should have gone on the DL after that start instead of just getting his second start pushed back.

Don't think anyone would argue that point in the least. But here's the more pertinent question - at what point in time do you stop letting your disdain for the front office stop clouding your judgement?

Fried's second start came against the Tennessee Smokies on Tax Day (April 15th), and he went 6 IP while giving up 1 ER on 4 hits with 4 Ks and 2 BBs. That looks A LOT like his line against the Cubs yesterday.

On the same day, Acuna was hitting .233/.281/.300/.581 with 1 XBH for Florida.

Nothing's changed since then, right???

[Eyeman]

Thanks for the new stats Enscheff. Just from what everyone was saying Allard and Fried were my favorite Braves pitching prospects to end last year and early this year. Fried had some weird minors stats and looked so so out of the bullpen, but as his start progressed I was very impressed.

I have no idea how he gained a few mph on his fastball as the game went on. It seemed to me that he was throwing some sort of sinking fastball early, it started getting hit and he went to a straighter harder one. The first one that shocked me induced a double play and suddenly jumped up to 96 on the TV radar. This start moved Fried past Newcomb and Sims in my mind. We don't have many off days the rest of the way, I'd like to see us go to a 6 man rotation. Or tell Dickey we are picking up his option for next year (which I think we should) and dropping him from the rotation unless something comes up.

[Enscheff]

Don't think anyone would argue that point in the least. But here's the more pertinent question - at what point in time do you stop letting your disdain for the front office stop clouding your judgement?

Fried's second start came against the Tennessee Smokies on Tax Day (April 15th), and he went 6 IP while giving up 1 ER on 4 hits with 4 Ks and 2 BBs. That looks A LOT like his line against the Cubs yesterday.

On the same day, Acuna was hitting .233/.281/.300/.581 with 1 XBH for Florida.

Nothing's changed since then, right???

Lol...what...the...****??

[Skeeter31]

I think LOOGY is his floor. He should be very good there and could do it today and for cheap.

If we ever had the balls to go to a multi inning reliever model we would have a number of guys who I think would be NICE going through a line up once.

Scouts that watched him seem to think he had a very high ceiling. So we will see how he progresses. He's interesting given this is year two (?) off of TJ.

I don't see how he gets RH out w/o a better third pitch. As good as the curve is, it's going right into HR alley on the RH swing. Klaw seems to be very high on him despite his struggles in the minors.

I too wish we could have the balls to go to a multi inning reliever model. Since we really haven't developed that top of the rotation starter yet, but have a lot of serviceable pitchers, going with a multi inning reliever model would be amazing. Imagine having Folty start a game a go through the lineup once, then having Wisler or Blair come in and go through once, then have Fried come in and go through once. By only throwing (hopefully) 40ish so pitches they'd be able to go again in a couple of days. But we are so far behind the eightball on analytics and rely too heavily on outdated stats that we'd never give up on the ability for the starter to get the "win".

[mfree80]

I too wish we could have the balls to go to a multi inning reliever model. Since we really haven't developed that top of the rotation starter yet, but have a lot of serviceable pitchers, going with a multi inning reliever model would be amazing. Imagine having Folty start a game a go through the lineup once, then having Wisler or Blair come in and go through once, then have Fried come in and go through once. By only throwing (hopefully) 40ish so pitches they'd be able to go again in a couple of days. But we are so far behind the eightball on analytics and rely too heavily on outdated stats that we'd never give up on the ability for the starter to get the "win".

Maybe we could check and see how that is working for the advanced analytics teams that are doing it.... Oh, wait.

Honestly, I doubt nobody has thought of the idea, but nobody is doing it. That ought to tell us something.

[msstate7]

Maybe we could check and see how that is working for the advanced analytics teams that are doing it.... Oh, wait.

Honestly, I doubt nobody has thought of the idea, but nobody is doing it. That ought to tell us something.

My bulldogs (miss state) did it all the way up the college World Series final.

[mfree80]

My bulldogs (miss state) did it all the way up the college World Series final.

Okay. That counts. Any MLB Teams?

[Horsehide Harry]

Lol...what...the...****??

Wednesday batter dough feather indigo therefore Rouge rogue hamburger Santa Claus

[msstate7]

Okay. That counts. Any MLB Teams?

Not yet. Perhaps the braves should hire John Cohen (state's old coach) haha, but we have snit, so maybe not haha

[smootness]

During his start last night, Fried's FA topped out at 96.8, and averaged 92.1. It sat around 90 early, but he was able to ramp it up 2-3 ticks later in the start. This is good news.

He also threw enough changes that we could get an idea of how good it is. 7.5 horizontal and 4.4 vertical are both below average for a change.

The command is currently poor at the MLB level, but everything else he has done suggests he could have fringe average command with more reps.

I'll pretty much stick with my first impressions...


FF: 45
CU: 65
CH: 40
Command: 45

That looks like a long man out of the BP, or a very good LOOGY.

Honest question, because I'm not entirely sure.

Aren't arm speed and change in velocity the primary two factors in a changeup's quality? Certainly movement is going to be important, but it seems like deception would be key in how useful a pitcher's changeup is. What was the average velocity on his change, and do we know if he's able to keep his arm speed the same while throwing it?

[Russ2dollas]

Maybe we could check and see how that is working for the advanced analytics teams that are doing it.... Oh, wait.

Honestly, I doubt nobody has thought of the idea, but nobody is doing it. That ought to tell us something.

Nobody is doing it b/c they all want dominant 1 inning guys.

I think there is a market inefficiency on pitchers who are good enough to get through the lineup once but not multiple times. 2 pitch starters. A lot of analytic people have said it's a good idea but someone has to be first. "Nobody" was using their "closer" outside of the 9th inning until last year.

[smootness]

Nobody is doing it b/c they all want dominant 1 inning guys.

I think there is a market inefficiency on pitchers who are good enough to get through the lineup once but not multiple times. 2 pitch starters. A lot of analytic people have said it's a good idea but someone has to be first. "Nobody" was using their "closer" outside of the 9th inning until last year.

Ultimately it's up to managers to start doing it, and who is willing to go there? Pretty much all managers are still old-school guys at heart, even somebody like Maddon. You're starting to see some bending of the traditional RP roles, especially in the postseason with guys like Andrew Miller. I think we'll get there eventually because I think you're right. Starters are going shorter and shorter, and we're starting to see some managers willing to go beyond the (actually modern) rule of no more than an inning at a time. Especially with the rise of guys who just get 1-2 outs as well, something has to give at some point so that your longer relievers aren't worn thin. The answer is to have more guys who are able to go more than an inning at a time.

I'm not sure we're anywhere close to a time where a team will go with the '3 pitchers pitching 3 innings' idea, but I do think we'll start seeing some relievers who typically go 2+ innings every few days.

[50PoundHead]

Ultimately it's up to managers to start doing it, and who is willing to go there? Pretty much all managers are still old-school guys at heart, even somebody like Maddon. You're starting to see some bending of the traditional RP roles, especially in the postseason with guys like Andrew Miller. I think we'll get there eventually because I think you're right. Starters are going shorter and shorter, and we're starting to see some managers willing to go beyond the (actually modern) rule of no more than an inning at a time. Especially with the rise of guys who just get 1-2 outs as well, something has to give at some point so that your longer relievers aren't worn thin. The answer is to have more guys who are able to go more than an inning at a time.

I'm not sure we're anywhere close to a time where a team will go with the '3 pitchers pitching 3 innings' idea, but I do think we'll start seeing some relievers who typically go 2+ innings every few days.

Which isn't all that new. It happened with relative frequency pre-1980s when the closer role and more defined bullpen roles became the norm.

[smootness]

Which isn't all that new. It happened with relative frequency pre-1980s when the closer role and more defined bullpen roles became the norm.

Right. Like I said, the rule that RPs go no more than an inning is a modern creation. Now, there are some good reasons for it, which is why it became a rule in the first place, but like most things, over time you find a better balance in the middle. You can get greater effectiveness out of a lot of pitchers in just an inning where they can let it rip. But you can also get better effectiveness out of others by letting them pitch a bit more.

There's always a trade off, though. By throwing more in any one game, you won't be able to use those guys as often. So it's probably something that would have to be better planned ahead of time. Instead of just going into a game with everyone available and just taking guys off the list if they've pitched too much recently, it would have to be something where you pinpoint games for certain guys based on the starting pitcher, opponent, etc. And then you just don't use them if the SP is killing it or if the game is not competitive.

[clvclv]

Right. Like I said, the rule that RPs go no more than an inning is a modern creation. Now, there are some good reasons for it, which is why it became a rule in the first place, but like most things, over time you find a better balance in the middle. You can get greater effectiveness out of a lot of pitchers in just an inning where they can let it rip. But you can also get better effectiveness out of others by letting them pitch a bit more.

There's always a trade off, though. By throwing more in any one game, you won't be able to use those guys as often. So it's probably something that would have to be better planned ahead of time. Instead of just going into a game with everyone available and just taking guys off the list if they've pitched too much recently, it would have to be something where you pinpoint games for certain guys based on the starting pitcher, opponent, etc. And then you just don't use them if the SP is killing it or if the game is not competitive.

As mentioned earlier though - if anyone's ever been built for this, you'd think this collection of arms would be the perfect test-case. A 13-man staff with 4 one-inning guys - Vizcaino, Minter, Ramirez, and Freeman to cover the 8th and 9th innings on any given night with 2 guys allowed to go deep when they can (Julio and Dickey), and a mixture of Folty, Newcomb, Sims, Gohara, Allard, Soroka, and Wright used in 3 inning stints would be really interesting to see - if for nothing else than to see how it'd work out.

Maybe sign another innings-eater like Cobb to replace Dickey and you still wouldn't get into expensive-arm territory for a good while.

Some of you guys may have a breakdown of how Tampa's stretch of only allowing one or two starters to go through a lineup more than twice handy for comparison (what parts could be, that is).

[smootness]

You certainly hope guys like Gohara, Allard, Soroka, and Wright can become more useful SPs than that.

It won't ever be ideal to have all your SPs move to smaller, more frequent roles. There will always be guys who are most effective when used for 6+ innings every 5th day.

[clvclv]

You certainly hope guys like Gohara, Allard, Soroka, and Wright can become more useful SPs than that.

It won't ever be ideal to have all your SPs move to smaller, more frequent roles. There will always be guys who are most effective when used for 6+ innings every 5th day.

Kinda the point though. I'd actually be pretty interested to see us move towards the Tampa model - no matter how well these guys are going (in most cases, of course), limit them to two passes through the opposing lineup every time out. No need for any of them to "throttle it back" much at all if you did that. If Folty can be effective sitting it 98 two times through, let him cut it loose. Same for Newcomb or any of the others with bigger fastballs.

I think most would agree that it's more-or-less that "five and fly" is rapidly becoming the model, and there's little doubt that we've got a collection of arms that honestly could be dominant in that role. If we could develop two or three of them into Andrew Miller/Chris Devenski types that could be used two or even three times a week in some cases you actually could develop multiple "Aces" from within by (in essence) piggybacking guys.

I really think Folty and Newcomb in particular would benefit from that model - it's the two of them that would seem to continue to be the teases moving forward. Solid control where thay can be unhittable every third or fourth start, struggling when they get to the 4th in the others.

[Enscheff]

During his start last night, Fried's FA topped out at 96.8, and averaged 92.1. It sat around 90 early, but he was able to ramp it up 2-3 ticks later in the start. This is good news.

He also threw enough changes that we could get an idea of how good it is. 7.5 horizontal and 4.4 vertical are both below average for a change.

The command is currently poor at the MLB level, but everything else he has done suggests he could have fringe average command with more reps.

I'll pretty much stick with my first impressions...


FF: 45
CU: 65
CH: 40
Command: 45

That looks like a long man out of the BP, or a very good LOOGY.

Longenhagen heard about the same:

NYTT
12:53 Thoughts on Max Fried's first start for the Braves?

Eric A Longenhagen
12:53 Didn't see it but heard he was okay. low-90s, curveball was great, strike throwing and changeup were not.

[chop2chip]

Longenhagen heard about the same:

NYTT
12:53 Thoughts on Max Fried's first start for the Braves?

Eric A Longenhagen
12:53 Didn't see it but heard he was okay. low-90s, curveball was great, strike throwing and changeup were not.

This was my impression as well. I think the total package can play up if he throws strikes at a plus rate. Otherwise, I'm not sure he has the arsenal of pitches to be anything more than a backend starter.

[Southcack77]

This was my impression as well. I think the total package can play up if he throws strikes at a plus rate. Otherwise, I'm not sure he has the arsenal of pitches to be anything more than a backend starter.

Be nice to get someone up that threw strikes and had stuff.

[Tapate50]

This was my impression as well. I think the total package can play up if he throws strikes at a plus rate. Otherwise, I'm not sure he has the arsenal of pitches to be anything more than a backend starter.

That's my take. I saw him and looked like a few of those fastballs has some sink. He had some guys on their heels waiting on that hammer it seemed.

[Enscheff]

Fried's xwOBA is the 2nd highest of any Braves pitcher this year at .370, behind only Aaron Blair.

He has given up a .414 mark vs RHers, and a .278 mark vs LHers. He showed similar splits in AAA this year.

A straight fastball with average velocity, a wipe out curve and a below average change that results in massive platoon splits...that's a LOOGY.

[msstate7]

Fried's xwOBA is the 2nd highest of any Braves pitcher this year at .370, behind only Aaron Blair.

He has given up a .414 mark vs RHers, and a .278 mark vs LHers. He showed similar splits in AAA this year.

A straight fastball with average velocity, a wipe out curve and a below average change that results in massive platoon splits...that's a LOOGY.

I have no opinion on fried, but seems pretty small sample size...

AAA = 6.0 ip
MLB = 11.2 ip

[Enscheff]

I have no opinion on fried, but seems pretty small sample size...

AAA = 6.0 ip
MLB = 11.2 ip

You're right, sample sizes are small. It's probably pretty dumb to even include those stats in my post.

I don't need much of a sample to tell his stuff isn't going to work long term in a MLB rotation...just like I knew Sims wasn't going to work.

[Enscheff]

Rich Hill is an interesting comp for Fried. Both are primarily FF/CU guys, both are LHed, and I think a lot of folks have Hill's 2016 season in mind when they dream about Fried's potential. So let's look at how they stack up...

2017 Fried FF: 92.8 MPH, 4.7x, 7.3z
2016 Hill FF: 91.0 MPH, 8.8x, 9.7z

Fried obviously throws harder, but look at the difference in movement. Hill got 4" more fade and over 2" more rise on his FF in 2016. That movement pushes Hill's FF up to a 50, while the straightness of Fried's FF pushes it below average to 45.

2017 Fried CU: 75.1 MPH, -4.0x, -7.0z
2016 Hill CU: 75.1 MPH, -8.5x, -7.9z

Fried has a 65 CU. Hill has a 75 CU (Zito had an 80+). Hill has over twice the horizontal movement of Fried, and almost an inch more drop.

2017 Fried BB/9: 6+
2016 Hill BB/9: 2.69

Right now, Fried's control is obviously poor, and we all know he is better than this. Hill had above average control in 2016.

Hill combined a 50 FF, a 75 CU, and 55 command to post a 2.12/2.39/3.36 ERA/FIP/xFIP in 2016. This year, his fastball has lost a couple ticks, his control worsened to 45 grade, and his ERA/FIP/xFIP rose to 3.67/3.89/3.89 as a direct result.

Hill's FF has more movement than Fried's, his CU is a full grade better, and he has fringe average control. Even if Fried improves his command to 50 grade, he will still be a poor man's Rich Hill.

Maximum upside for Fried is likely Hill's career ERA/FIP/xFIP right around 4. That's a #4 who can produce ~2 wins per year.

Fried's most likely role is out of the BP, either as a multi inning guy, or a LOOGY.