What would Ender bring in a trade

[Oklahomabrave]

Keith Law suggested trading Ender in his chat today. Not really advocating one way or another but it spurred quite a debate on twitter
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I think Ender is fantastic but I'd explore trading anyone if it helped us. I was trying to think of teams that needed a CF. I know the Cubs could use him and inquired about him before. Maybe the Dodgers, Yankees? What would be fair-good value that worked?

[ixiXSolidXixi]

Why dont package him with a few prospects for Stanton. Acuna he can work the center field and we still have Pache and Waters in a few years.

[goldfly]

****ing move acuna to RF

Trade Markakis and eat almost all of That final year he should have never been given and take whatever trash someone offers to do such a thing

This isn't a hard problem to solve

[Enscheff]

Um, Acuna would not be good in CF. He has graded out as average or below defensively in the upper minors.

Trading Ender made some sense when Mallex was still in the organization. Not any more.

KLaw is getting worse and worse as time goes on. He is trying to understand surplus value, but can't quite grasp it yet.

[The Chosen One]

Keep Ender here. He's one of the Rah Rah guys we need.

[nsacpi]

Keep Ender here. He's one of the Rah Rah guys we need.

We can't afford to lose his veteran leadership.

[CyYoung31]

Um, Acuna would not be good in CF. He has graded out as average or below defensively in the upper minors.

Trading Ender made some sense when Mallex was still in the organization. Not any more.

KLaw is getting worse and worse as time goes on. He is trying to understand surplus value, but can't quite grasp it yet.

Yeah, it hurts Ender's value, not Acuna's.

[thewupk]

I still fail how to understand how plus defense in a corner is 'wasting' it.

[Horsehide Harry]

For the right deal, anything is possible. But I think it would be tough to move him now.

[rico43]

Acuna in right field just fits. Speed, rocket throwing arm. I am picturing Clemente.j
https://youtu.be/0UUy65ZpSP0?t=4

[UNCBlue012]

Eff that noise.

[thethe]

I don't want to find out the answer to this question

[UNCBlue012]

I don't want to find out the answer to this question

The answer is probably less than we'd expect and two extra years of a rebuild.

People should NOT underestimate how insanely valuable he is, especially to our team.

[msstate7]

Inciarte, Albies, soroka/allard, and Newcomb for a front line starter. I don't like it, but as The Weeknd sings, "I feel it coming"

[smootness]

Um, Acuna would not be good in CF. He has graded out as average or below defensively in the upper minors.

Trading Ender made some sense when Mallex was still in the organization. Not any more.

KLaw is getting worse and worse as time goes on. He is trying to understand surplus value, but can't quite grasp it yet.

Remember that he was a failed FO guy as well.

But even if Acuna projected to be above-average defensively in CF, I don't like the idea of trading Inciarte simply to maximize value. I get the argument, but this is where it breaks down to me. The goal is to build a team, and even if Acuna is good enough to play CF, it still works better IMO to have him play RF than to give away an answer in the OF on the hope of finding other answers in the trade when you would still leave two gaping holes in the OF.

It's the same reason I was against trading Albies because of the idea that he had better value on the trade market as a SS than he did to us as a 2B.

[smootness]

I still fail how to understand how plus defense in a corner is 'wasting' it.

Also this. Heyward has proven that you can provide just as much value as a beast defensively in RF as you can in CF. I don't see it lowering Acuna's value at all to have him in a corner, and that's obviously even more true if Acuna isn't that great in CF.

[nsacpi]

Also this. Heyward has proven that you can provide just as much value as a beast defensively in RF as you can in CF. I don't see it lowering Acuna's value at all to have him in a corner, and that's obviously even more true if Acuna isn't that great in CF.

Probably there is a significant "loss of value" if you have three gold glove caliber center fielders in your outfield. But the loss is quite small with two, especially if the third outfielder has poor range and the other two have to cover more ground to compensate.

[atl717]

Braves wouldn't give up that much, and it wouldn't cost that much. That's ridiculous.

[smootness]

Probably there is a significant "loss of value" if you have three gold glove caliber center fielders in your outfield. But the loss is quite small with two, especially if the third outfielder has poor range and the other two have to cover more ground to compensate.

I'd be curious to see that because that doesn't seem to make logical sense to me. I can see a slight loss in overall value, but I just don't think there are going to be many balls that two different OF would be potentially making a difficult play on.

[Hudson2]

Worst idea ever. Law gets worse every year. Let's trade a gold glove center fielder who's 2nd in hits in the NL who bats lead off and just signed a cheap extension..

[DirkPiggler]

Also this. Heyward has proven that you can provide just as much value as a beast defensively in RF as you can in CF. I don't see it lowering Acuna's value at all to have him in a corner, and that's obviously even more true if Acuna isn't that great in CF.

I was just thinking that Law must not have subscribed to the Black Jesus as a 6 WAR player because of defense theory. Normally I agree with his opinions, but he's full of **** on this one.

As always, if someone offers significantly more than a player is worth you trade that player. But the return would have to be a big overpay for me to trade Ender right now...particularly when our starting corner outfielders consist of a statue and a corpse.

[cajunrevenge]

Ender could get us atleast 4 pitching prospects who need or are recovering from TJ surgery.

[msstate7]

Braves wouldn't give up that much, and it wouldn't cost that much. That's ridiculous.

Probably not... I hope not. I repeat if bc I want to jinx any Albies trade. No way I can be right hah

[Deester11]

Probably not... I hope not. I repeat if bc I want to jinx any Albies trade. No way I can be right hah

This FO ain't that damn stupid to trade Albies or Inciarte........... Right? Dear jeebus someone tell me I'm right!

[nsacpi]

This FO ain't that damn stupid to trade Albies or Inciarte........... Right? Dear jeebus someone tell me I'm right!

They were lukewarm on Albies. But I think they are gonna jump onto the bandwagon. The nice thing is even if they trade him now, his value is going to be tremendous.

[Chico]

I don't think it's a horrible idea, but it's not one I'd do. I'm one who is on board trading anyone who's value is in their defense as it's become an overvalued stat in the WAR age we're in now, but I think Ender is getting bertter offensively and at 26 his Defense shouldn't start declining yet. I'd think 2 more year Pache should be ready and that would be the optimum time to trade Ender.

The other thing is I believe we'll start trying to extend players and I'm not sure it sends the right message to trade a guy like Ender so soon after signing a team friendly extension and send that message.

Trading Nick is the play here. We'll have to eat some salary, take some salary back on an overpaid player we could use like a reliever, include a fringe prospect, or a variation of the three but it can be done.

[Jaw]

I don't think it's a horrible idea, but it's not one I'd do. I'm one who is on board trading anyone who's value is in their defense as it's become an overvalued stat in the WAR age we're in now, but I think Ender is getting bertter offensively and at 26 his Defense shouldn't start declining yet. I'd think 2 more year Pache should be ready and that would be the optimum time to trade Ender.

The other thing is I believe we'll start trying to extend players and I'm not sure it sends the right message to trade a guy like Ender so soon after signing a team friendly extension and send that message.

Trading Nick is the play here. We'll have to eat some salary, take some salary back on an overpaid player we could use like a reliever, include a fringe prospect, or a variation of the three but it can be done.

I have always agreed with this. Until seeing a year of Kemp in the outfield.

[Chico]

I have always agreed with this. Until seeing a year of Kemp in the outfield.

Haha...I'm not going to disagree wiht you there. It is hard to watch. I meant more having an all around player and I think Ender will be that as opposed to a defense only guy.

[Horsehide Harry]

The problem is finding a fit team with the desire and resources to make a trade that would make the Braves better.

I think the Braves would need and Eaton return to trade him now.

The Gnats traded their 1, 3 and 6 prospects for Eaton. At the time, Giolito was the #3 prospect in baseball and Lopez the #38 and Dunning was top 100 quality.

Not that many teams who have those type prospects and fewer with those type prospects who have a CF need. Even less who would be willing to move the prospects.

I could see a bigger trade possibility where it is an Inciarte/Folty or Teheran combined trade.

Let's say Colorado wanted Inciarte for CF (with plans to move Blackmon over). I would think the Braves might consider a Inciarte & Folty for Dahl, Rodgers, Welker, Vilade and Murphy. But does Colorado want to move Blackmon out of CF, even with him as a pending FA? Probably not.

Or, let's say the Yankees wanted Inciarte+, and were willing to do a trade that included Frazier, Florial and Andujar. But, the Yankees have a big commitment to Ellsbury. Maybe if the Braves were willing to take Ellsbury and most of his salary back then they could pull another player or two. But, the Braves don't seem to be in position to use payroll space anymore to make smart moves.

Or let's say the Astros wanted Inciarte+ and intended to move Springer to a corner and they were willing to do a Tucker, Whitley and Celestino.

But it's unlikely those teams would give up that much and they are some of the very few who could and might see advantage from doing so.

[nsacpi]

Roughly, I think he could get us a top 10 prospect plus another one in the top 50. If an offer came along that was significantly better than that, I would say done. For the right price, I'm sure the FO would trade any player.

[Southcack77]

I'm not sure that Acuna is a CF or that that would be a good reason to trade Inciarte, but the idea that Inciarte is untouchable is somewhat weird.

He's certainly moveable for the right return. This is probably peak Inciarte right now.

Honestly you guys really love former and existing Braves.

[chop2chip]

I'm not sure that Acuna is a CF or that that would be a good reason to trade Inciarte, but the idea that Inciarte is untouchable is somewhat weird.

He's certainly moveable for the right return. This is probably peak Inciarte right now.

Honestly you guys really love former and existing Braves.
This.

I love Ender, but if you don't think your window opens until 2019 then it makes sense to trade Inciarte now while his defense grades out well. We have already seen a decline in performance this year and centerfield defense isn't something that really returns.

And the reason this move is sellable to the fans is you would be promoting potentially the #1 prospect in baseball to replace him. That's not a difficult sale, which is different from trading Freddie since there isn't an internal replacement that makes all that much sense.

[Enscheff]

I'm not sure that Acuna is a CF or that that would be a good reason to trade Inciarte, but the idea that Inciarte is untouchable is somewhat weird.

He's certainly moveable for the right return. This is probably peak Inciarte right now.

Honestly you guys really love former and existing Braves.

These are 2 very different statements:

1. Trade Ender because his value is at it's absolute peak right now.
2. Trade Ender because Acuna's defensive value is wasted in RF.

KLaw is arguing for point 2, which is absurd. Acuna has shown no signs that his defense is good enough to be "wasted" in any OF position. He will either be an average/good RFer, or a poor CFer...each equally valuable.

Point 1 has merit, and depending on where the team is on the win curve, one could intelligently argue in its favor. Personally, I think it's clear that trading Ender pushes the rebuild back, so it shouldn't be done unless the Gohara/Soroka/Allard/Wright pitching wave flops like the previous waves have. We should know the answer to that in about 20-22 months (trade deadline of 2019).

[Horsehide Harry]

The thing for me is Inciarte is a very good player and is valuable. But, his value right now is to keep a bad team from looking marginally worse. It's not like the Braves are one player from contending. Most would agree that they are probably at least a year away from fielding a reasonably good team and probably 2 years away from possibly fielding a playoff team.

So, Inciarte's value is being wasted with the Braves right now unless you put stock in the value of 2-3 wins more on a bad team being worth having him around. Keep in mind that no one is suggesting that he be just given away. But Inciarte's true value to the Braves will either occur at the time the rest of the team has caught up enough to be competitive or whatever his trade value is in bringing back talent that has value at the time the rest of the team is competitive. He's not a face of the franchise guy where you build marketing campaigns around him (even if they should they aren't, better Inciarte than an unproven Swanson). He's not a casual fan draw.

He's an excellent baseball player who's peak value will likely be wasted while the rest of the team is trying to become good enough to actually win anything. He may still have really good value in 2019 and 2020 but his birthday is October 29, 1990 so in 2019 and 2020 he will have already peaked and be starting into his baseball physical decline. And, that's all assuming he doesn't get derailed along the way due to injury or other reasons.

IMO, you have to build for where you will be, not where you are when you are rebuilding.

[Enscheff]

The thing for me is Inciarte is a very good player and is valuable. But, his value right now is to keep a bad team from looking marginally worse. It's not like the Braves are one player from contending. Most would agree that they are probably at least a year away from fielding a reasonably good team and probably 2 years away from possibly fielding a playoff team.

So, Inciarte's value is being wasted with the Braves right now unless you put stock in the value of 2-3 wins more on a bad team being worth having him around. Keep in mind that no one is suggesting that he be just given away. But Inciarte's true value to the Braves will either occur at the time the rest of the team has caught up enough to be competitive or whatever his trade value is in bringing back talent that has value at the time the rest of the team is competitive. He's not a face of the franchise guy where you build marketing campaigns around him (even if they should they aren't, better Inciarte than an unproven Swanson). He's not a casual fan draw.

He's an excellent baseball player who's peak value will likely be wasted while the rest of the team is trying to become good enough to actually win anything. He may still have really good value in 2019 and 2020 but his birthday is October 29, 1990 so in 2019 and 2020 he will have already peaked and be starting into his baseball physical decline. And, that's all assuming he doesn't get derailed along the way due to injury or other reasons.

IMO, you have to build for where you will be, not where you are when you are rebuilding.

There is no way a rebuild can transition from 68 wins to 90 wins without a couple seasons where a few player's peak seasons are "wasted".

[nsacpi]

There is no way a rebuild can transition from 68 wins to 90 wins without a couple seasons where a few player's peak seasons are "wasted".

Yeah. It's very difficult to synchronize everything so there are no "wasted" seasons. You do want to minimize it. But it can't be an absolute goal that overrides everything else. If you make it an absolute goal you will be punting for 50 years.

The Royals "wasted" most of Alex Gordon's prime. In an ideal world they trade him for a younger player with a later prime. If the Royals had adopted a zero wastage policy they might still be waiting for that magic season where everyone is in their prime.

[Horsehide Harry]

There is no way a rebuild can transition from 68 wins to 90 wins without a couple seasons where a few player's peak seasons are "wasted".

Under most circumstance. But not universally. The 1991 Braves jumped from last to first (65 wins to 94 wins) and had no home grown talent already past their prime. Guys that were brought in to supplement the team such as Pendelton, Bream, Liebrandt and Bellieard were all past their prime but were FA or trade acquisitions. The core guys were all 26 or younger, most MUCH younger.

A similar thing happened with the Astros when they went from 70 wins in 2014 to 86 wins in 2015.

I'm sure there are others.

If you want a dynasty or at least sustained success and high level play for a number of years, it's best that when you begin to be competitive you aren't saddled with players who are already in their decline, unless those players are not key core players and/or are close to being out from under team control and financial obligation.

[nsacpi]

Under most circumstance. But not universally. The 1991 Braves jumped from last to first (65 wins to 94 wins) and had no home grown talent already past their prime. Guys that were brought in to supplement the team such as Pendelton, Bream, Liebrandt and Bellieard were all past their prime but were FA or trade acquisitions. The core guys were all 26 or younger, most MUCH younger.

A similar thing happened with the Astros when they went from 70 wins in 2014 to 86 wins in 2015.

I'm sure there are others.

If you want a dynasty or at least sustained success and high level play for a number of years, it's best that when you begin to be competitive you aren't saddled with players who are already in their decline, unless those players are not key core players and/or are close to being out from under team control and financial obligation.

It does happen. I would add the Cubs to the examples you cited. But I think it is so difficult to achieve that it can't be an absolute goal. I do think given where we are on the expected win curve, we should at a minimum have a price in mind that we would be willing to part with guys like Freeman and Inciarte. If some team is willing to meet that price, you do the deal. But I don't think we should be actively trying to move them. Our front office has made some of its worst mistakes when it has been too anxious to move a particular player or fill a particular need.

[Horsehide Harry]

Yeah. It's very difficult to synchronize everything so there are no "wasted" seasons. You do want to minimize it. But it can't be an absolute goal that overrides everything else. If you make it an absolute goal you will be punting for 50 years.

The Royals "wasted" most of Alex Gordon's prime. In an ideal world they trade him for a younger player with a later prime. If the Royals had adopted a zero wastage policy they might still be waiting for that magic season where everyone is in their prime.

True. But, the Royals now face another down to the paint rebuild job. They reached their high water mark and now will soon be faced with years of last place finishes for another shot. Maybe that's the only way that they can do it. If you look at the Royals now, their best players are all about to be FA and will command money that is out of their league. They made the mistake of re-signing a declining fan favorite in Alex Gordon who is untradeable. Their minor league system is pretty barren. They are an old team. They have many bad contracts and their best under control player is a 28 YO catcher.

KC benefited in the first place from their position in the worst division in baseball. They had 2-3 years in the sun and now are headed back for another 10 years of mediocrity. If they HAD NOT won the WS, their rebuild would have to be considered a significant failure. As it is, since they did win, I would call it a brief, unsustainable success.

[Horsehide Harry]

It does happen. I would add the Cubs to the examples you cited. But I think it is so difficult to achieve that it can't be an absolute goal. I do think given where we are on the expected win curve, we should at a minimum have a price in mind that we would be willing to part with guys like Freeman and Inciarte. If some team is willing to meet that price, you do the deal. But I don't think we should be actively trying to move them. Our front office has made some of its worst mistakes when it has been too anxious to move a particular player or fill a particular need.

That's all I am saying.

[Russ2dollas]

Um, Acuna would not be good in CF. He has graded out as average or below defensively in the upper minors.

Trading Ender made some sense when Mallex was still in the organization. Not any more.

KLaw is getting worse and worse as time goes on. He is trying to understand surplus value, but can't quite grasp it yet.

Can't go this far. He has a MBA from Carnegie Mellon and he's worked in baseball on the stats side for decades.

I think this gets us into some of our WAR debates. Teams don't put 3 CF in the OF to have great defense across. They look to get bats in the corners. The amount of value they add with the glove and the bat changes per player and likely per team. Klaw's book talks about each team having their own WAR.

To me I disagree with Klaw because I think Acuna is not a great CF glove, I think he has a RF arm and I think he can hit enough for RF. Inciarte I do not think is a great fit in a corner with the bat but he has the D and the Arm.

That said, I would trade Inciarte if it made us better. I think Acuna will be good enough in CF that if I could get the deal Klaw is suggesting, then I'd look at it. A controlled 3B plus two close and potential regulars for Inciarte would be something worth doing. I don't see who that team would be though.....

What I would do is put Inciarte in CF, Acuna in RF and have an expensive platoon in LF. The platoon would be dumb, but I don't care. I've spent the money already and I'm not going to compound the mistake more. If someone wants to take some of the salary off my hands from Kemp or Neck then I look real hard at that. IF you want Inciarte blow me away. But Inciarte is not untouchable. I want Eaton type deal with closer prospects for Inciarte and I don't think I'm getting that.

[thewupk]

Probably there is a significant "loss of value" if you have three gold glove caliber center fielders in your outfield. But the loss is quite small with two, especially if the third outfielder has poor range and the other two have to cover more ground to compensate.


If that were the case I could certainly see the guy playing CF having less WAR than if he had bums playing next to him. So in that scenario the CF would likely lose value and this have less trade value. How significant that would be I don't know. But it wouldn't change the overall on the field value though which I think Law is suggesting here.

[clvclv]

Roughly, I think he could get us a top 10 prospect plus another one in the top 50. If an offer came along that was significantly better than that, I would say done. For the right price, I'm sure the FO would trade any player.

Now that they finally went out and got Verlander to top-off their rotation, couldn't you imagine what a difference-maker Ender could be playing CF for the Astros for the next handful of years??? They've continued to say that Tucker and Whitley are "unavailable", but wouldn't you have to at least think about moving them if you could add Ender at the top to go with Altuve, Correa, Springer, Bregman, Gurriel, Reddick, Mac, and Fisher for the next couple years? They'd also be able to get Springer out of CF to help keep him healthier.

Sure, he's not Ender defensively (of course, who is?), but could you really say no if we could slide Acuna over and turn Ender into another uber-prospect to replace one of the old guys with AND another high-upside arm that could potentially allow you to then replace the other aging OF or land a 3B? Turn around and offer Folty to Colorado for McMahon, and all of a sudden we start to look a lot like the Cubs and Astros with all those young controllable bats - PLUS we've got a lot more pitching on the way than they do.

Like everyone else, I wouldn't trade Ender unless that's the type of return you got, but if I could get those two guys from Houston I'd sure have to think long and hard about it.

[nsacpi]

Now that they finally went out and got Verlander to top-off their rotation, couldn't you imagine what a difference-maker Ender could be playing CF for the Astros for the next handful of years??? They've continued to say that Tucker and Whitley are "unavailable", but wouldn't you have to at least think about moving them if you could add Ender at the top to go with Altuve, Correa, Springer, Bregman, Gurriel, Reddick, Mac, and Fisher for the next couple years? They'd also be able to get Springer out of CF to help keep him healthier.

Sure, he's not Ender defensively (of course, who is?), but could you really say no if we could slide Acuna over and turn Ender into another uber-prospect to replace one of the old guys with AND another high-upside arm that could potentially allow you to then replace the other aging OF or land a 3B? Turn around and offer Folty to Colorado for McMahon, and all of a sudden we start to look a lot like the Cubs and Astros with all those young controllable bats - PLUS we've got a lot more pitching on the way than they do.

Like everyone else, I wouldn't trade Ender unless that's the type of return you got, but if I could get those two guys from Houston I'd sure have to think long and hard about it.

If the Stros offered Tucker, Whitley, Martes and Perez, I'd do it. I agree Inciarte is not untouchable. No player is untouchable.

[Hudson2]

Inciarte to me is a building block and is a table setter at the top of the lineup. How hard has it been to find a leadoff hitter since Furcal? It's been rough. I would have to be blown away to trade him at this point, especially since he's shown he can hit along with playing gold glove defense.

[nsacpi]

Inciarte to me is a building block and is a table setter at the top of the lineup. How hard has it been to find a leadoff hitter since Furcal? It's been rough. I would have to be blown away to trade him at this point, especially since he's shown he can hit along with playing gold glove defense.

Bourn was pretty good for a couple years. But I agree that having a couple guys at the top of the order like Inciarte and Albies is pretty important and that should be factored into our asking price for someone like Inciarte.

[chop2chip]

Inciarte to me is a building block and is a table setter at the top of the lineup. How hard has it been to find a leadoff hitter since Furcal? It's been rough. I would have to be blown away to trade him at this point, especially since he's shown he can hit along with playing gold glove defense.
I know we have had bad ones in the past, but Inciarte as a lead off hitter is... okay? Honestly, I would be a little disappointed if Acuna wouldn't as good as Inciarte within his first year (* as a hitter). Honestly, I think Dansby or Albies would both do better in that role.

[Russ2dollas]

I know we have had bad ones in the past, but Inciarte as a lead off hitter is... okay? Honestly, I would be a little disappointed if Acuna wouldn't as good as Inciarte within his first year. Honestly, I think Dansby or Albies would both do better in that role.

agree. He's overrated as a hitter on the board. He's good but we don't want him getting the most at bats.

He is probably going to be a 3-5 WAR guy, right? Mostly 3-4 WAR. His OBP is likely going to be in the 350 +/- 20 points, right? Not much power so the OPS isn't going to threaten 800.

If we were a good offensive team he'd be a guy that would hit 7 or 8 and we'd love his D like we do now.

I still don't see the fit to trade him. Who is the team that thinks they are 1 CF away? And does that team have anything to give up? The Braves are trying to win, so if they trade 3 WAR Ender now they are going to want to get a 2 WAR 3B back plus 2 more pieces....where is that?

[clvclv]

If the Stros offered Tucker, Whitley, Martes and Perez, I'd do it. I agree Inciarte is not untouchable. No player is untouchable.

Can't imagine they'd pay that price, but if they'd also pay one of Moran or Davis to be (at the very least) a potential platoon-partner for Rio until we can find out for sure what we've got in Riley and free-up Camargo as a super-utility guy that might be able to be the backup CF as well, I can't imagine you don't jerk their arm off. Then you arguably don't need to move Folty or any other arm. Of course, you might still decide to move an arm to Seattle for Lewis to be your right-handed thump.

I'll go so far as to say ALMOST "no player is untouchable", but I've gotta think Freeman, Acuna, Albies, and Swanson are as close to being that as it gets. Ender will cost a huge overpay, but he's just not the type of player that can be that when you can so readily "replace" his leadoff skills with Ozzie or Ronald and not wind up with a below-average defender in CF.

[TheBravos]

I think it would depend on how they feel about Pache and how fast they think he could move . Probably move Nick 2018, BUT if Pache starts tearing it up...he's the guy that could make Ender expendable after 2018 (or even at next trade deadline).

Ender is the type of player someone would over pay to acquire with his elite D and cheap contract. The ONLY way you move him is if it's an overpay. In that case...you would really need to consider pulling the trigger.

[Knucksie]

Under most circumstance. But not universally. The 1991 Braves jumped from last to first (65 wins to 94 wins) and had no home grown talent already past their prime. Guys that were brought in to supplement the team such as Pendelton, Bream, Liebrandt and Bellieard were all past their prime but were FA or trade acquisitions. The core guys were all 26 or younger, most MUCH younger.

A similar thing happened with the Astros when they went from 70 wins in 2014 to 86 wins in 2015.

I'm sure there are others.

If you want a dynasty or at least sustained success and high level play for a number of years, it's best that when you begin to be competitive you aren't saddled with players who are already in their decline, unless those players are not key core players and/or are close to being out from under team control and financial obligation.

Pendleton won '91 NL MVP Award. What did he do in St. Louis that was better?

[Horsehide Harry]

Pendleton won '91 NL MVP Award. What did he do in St. Louis that was better?

Not the point. I never said that he wasn't good. You can have good years, even MVP years, when you are past your physical baseball prime. And Pendleton was.

The point was that the 1991 Braves essentially had NO internal players over about 26 years of age except for the FA they brought in (unless you want to count Jeff Treadway). Dale Murphy was long gone. Nick Esasky was also gone. Zane Smith was gone. Jim Pressley was gone.

The idea that you CAN'T trade away all your ML veteran players (such as Freeman, Inciarte, Teheran) isn't an absolute. It has been done before and it has worked extremely well before.

[Knucksie]

Not the point. I never said that he wasn't good. You can have good years, even MVP years, when you are past your physical baseball prime. And Pendleton was.

Pendleton was at peak in Atlanta during 1991, and exceeded all realistic expectations. He signed as FA. That means every other team, who might've needed a 3B, passed on the opportunity. If we relied on The Numbers, his "surplus value" wouldn't have been too impressive by current standards.


The point was that the 1991 Braves essentially had NO internal players over about 26 years of age except for the FA they brought in (unless you want to count Jeff Treadway). Dale Murphy was long gone. Nick Esasky was also gone. Zane Smith was gone. Jim Pressley was gone.

Well, let's see. How many times here and at Scout have I recounted the rejected offers for Dale Murphy, which could have exponentially accelerated the late 80's rebuilding process? The Nick Esasky signing was no mistake (probably one of the greatest all time hitters at AFS...and a Marietta resident), but a fluke outcome. Not sure what that has to do with any of this topic though? Pressley? Are you serious? The dude banged doubles for the first half of '88 (?) then nothing after. Total stopgap. Zane Smith, interesting name to bring up. Somebody from the AJC staff should have asked Cox why he wasn't kept. If you don't know, research the return on that trade. To be fair, he didn't contribute much in Montreal, but was extremely effective in Pittsburgh.

Anyway, here's a news flash: the late '80's Braves teams were a laughingstock. In the "old days," we used to purchase magazines with predictions/prognostications for the upcoming seasons. Nobody pegged the Braves to be contenders. In fact, EVERYBODY picked them to be last for that year.

So, if we had internet message boards around at the time, you'd have been frustrated with the progress of Justice, Smoltz, Glavine and Avery. Stats would've been posted, indicating that Smoltz, Glavine and Avery were never going to be more be more than average major leaguers, at best.


The idea that you CAN'T trade away all your ML veteran players (such as Freeman, Inciarte, Teheran) isn't an absolute. It has been done before and it has worked extremely well before.

You think that the idea of trading away Freeman and Inciarte is a great one, well, just because you've posted it here 86 times. This board has posters who scour blogs all day long, visit Fangraphs hourly and owned fantasy league teams. That makes them geniuses!

[Horsehide Harry]

I think you missed the point entirely.

Pendelton was not an internal face of the franchise guy. He was a FA signed and brought in that worked out extremely well. He was passed his peak baseball years (age) unless you subscribe to the thought that he was a late bloomer. But, it really doesn't matter. It would be like the Braves signing a player in 2019, let's say Andruw McCutchen and having him play well enough to win an MVP at 32. That doesn't mean his abilities suddenly peaked. It means he had a good year and got more out of his abilities than he ever had before.

Not sure where you are going about the discussion about Murphy, Esasky, etc. My point was that none were around when the Braves got good. The Braves obviously held on to Murphy way, way passed the time he should have been traded and was a clear example of not understanding how to achieve best value with a player. The Braves were obviously rebuilding and Murphy's best value would have been as a trade piece at the time when a. the rebuild was undeniable and b. his value was highest. The Braves should have traded him after 1985 or 1986 when he was 29-30 and an annual MVP candidate. Instead they held onto him as a stand alone draw pulling in those loyal 5,000 fans each night in Fulton County. Having Murphy during that time did not change the record in any positive way. The years that he was a Brave from 85 on were wasted career years for him (and probably cost him the HoF) and wasted rebuild value for the Braves. Fortunately, Freeman was a little younger when this rebuild started and may actually still be useful when the team is good again. But he will be aged past his physical prime.

There's a difference between being your physical best and maximizing your talents. Pendelton was able to maximize his talents into an MVP even though he was past his baseball physical prime. Murphy's performance degraded significantly after his physical prime and really nosedived after he turned 30. We have to hope that Freeman takes the Pendelton path as opposed to the Murphy path.

As far as the comment about geniuses not sure really what you're getting at besides "get off my lawn!" This is a baseball discussion forum and I think the overall quality of posters is pretty high. I don't agree with everything everyone posts but I can respect most of it.

Many here equate just talking about the potential of trading Inciarte and Freeman as equivalent to discussing selling some of the children to slave traders. I like Inciarte and Freeman (and Teheran and others) but I am a fan of the TEAM. Whatever can be done to make the best TEAM should be done. If that involves trading one or more of players that I like then I am adult enough to accept that.

[Heyward]

Inciarte, Albies, soroka/allard, and Newcomb for a front line starter. I don't like it, but as The Weeknd sings, "I feel it coming"

Not even Coppy is this dumb.

And currently, no frontline SP is worth that much realistically.

[Enscheff]

Not even Coppy is this dumb.

And currently, no frontline SP is worth that much realistically.

Not only that, but any team selling an Ace with enough control to be worth that package will be a rebuilding team. A rebuilding team would not want current MLB players as the bulk of the return.

[Oklahomabrave]

Not only that, but any team selling an Ace with enough control to be worth that package will be a rebuilding team. A rebuilding team would not want current MLB players as the bulk of the return.

That must be why Coppy doesn't care about service time. He's just calling up
His favorites so rebuilding teams won't want them.

[NinersSBChamps]

Wait are people really advocating the Braves trade away Ender? He's a proven young MLB player with elite defense and is cost controlled for a few more years? People have a strange obsession with always wanting to add unproven prospects. I get it. You were fooled into thinking the Braves were going to be decent this season and think an infusion of prospects is the only way the Braves can compete again, but getting rid of quality MLB players will only push the timeline further away.

[Oklahomabrave]

I certainly wasn't advocating for trade. This was meant to be more of a thought exercise as we wait for the offseason. I was secretly hoping Enscheff would do a surplus value breakdown with an intersting proposal.

For instance, how would Happ stack up as a trade chip for Ender? Is he an overpay or not enough? I know the Cubs have inquired about Ender before.

[chop2chip]

I certainly wasn't advocating for trade. This was meant to be more of a thought exercise as we wait for the offseason. I was secretly hoping Enscheff would do a surplus value breakdown with an intersting proposal.

For instance, how would Happ stack up as a trade chip for Ender? Is he an overpay or not enough? I know the Cubs have inquired about Ender before.

The Cubs wouldn't make that trade, but Happ is absolutely the type of player I would want in an Ender trade. He could play any of the OF spots, 2B, and maybe fake 3B well enough to put Rio in a platoon. So in other words, you could play in LF with a platoon with Kemp against RH and against LHP he can move to third base against LH to sit Rio.

[Knucksie]

I was just thinking that Law must not have subscribed to the Black Jesus as a 6 WAR player because of defense theory. Normally I agree with his opinions, but he's full of **** on this one.


That theory got picked on here and self-perpetuates. Ditto with the Mallex Smith and Inciarte were "similar players" talking points.

[Chipper]

Shame, embarrassment and another three years of 70 win seasons.

[Enscheff]

I certainly wasn't advocating for trade. This was meant to be more of a thought exercise as we wait for the offseason. I was secretly hoping Enscheff would do a surplus value breakdown with an intersting proposal.

For instance, how would Happ stack up as a trade chip for Ender? Is he an overpay or not enough? I know the Cubs have inquired about Ender before.

Ender is roughly a league average hitter whose defense has already entered its decline phase. He is currently a 3.5 win player, and that value will probably level off and start declining.

That means he could be projected for ~13 wins over the next 5 seasons at a cost of $36M. Surplus value in the $90M-$100M range.

Happ for Inciarte is the type of trade the Braves would have to make if they want to avoid pushing the rebuild back another couple years. However, that all assumes Acuna is adequate in CF, and I'm not sure where that notion came from.

If Mallex were still in the organization, trading Ender for a player at another position of need would have made some sense. In fact, it's a move I suggested. Now that Mallex was traded for even more pitching, trading Ender isn't really an option any longer.

[Southcack77]

Ender is roughly a league average hitter whose defense has already entered its decline phase. He is currently a 3.5 win player, and that value will probably level off and start declining.

That means he could be projected for ~13 wins over the next 5 seasons at a cost of $36M. Surplus value in the $90M-$100M range.

Happ for Inciarte is the type of trade the Braves would have to make if they want to avoid pushing the rebuild back another couple years. However, that all assumes Acuna is adequate in CF, and I'm not sure where that notion came from.

If Mallex were still in the organization, trading Ender for a player at another position of need would have made some sense. In fact, it's a move I suggested. Now that Mallex was traded for even more pitching, trading Ender isn't really an option any longer.

They already chose between them and traded the odd man out for what they thought might be a front line starter / leverage reliever at a minimum.

Those two guys were not going to play together. It's valid to question whether they chose the right guy. Probably chose the surer bet that they got a good deal on an extension for.

Ending the rebuild will to some degree mean leaving a core a place. Maybe they should have kicked it down the road a bit and chosen to see if Mallex worked out. The return on Ender maybe would have been better.

I guess he could still be moved, but I wouldn't expect it to happen until Pache was closer. Pache is being rated the best CF in the minors from what I read and maybe a best in baseball candidate. If his offense plays up a little Inciarte will be very expendable. But not until then, I don't think.