Projecting 3B in 2018

[Enscheff]

3B is one of the glaring needs for the Braves in 2018. It appears as if some form of a Ruiz/Camargo platoon is going to be used.

Let's try to figure out how good that combo can be. The methodology will be to look for similar batting seasons based on K%, BB% and ISO. From those similar seasons, we can get a feel for what to expect offensively from each player.

First, Rio...

There are 20 player seasons since 2000 that resemble Rio's optimistic range of K%, BB% and ISO:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssplits.aspx?splitArr=&strgroup=season&statgroup=2&startDate=2000-03-01&endDate=2017-11-01&filter=ISO%7Clt%7C0.14,BB%25%7Cgt%7C0.1,BB%25%7Clt %7C0.11,ISO%7Cgt%7C0.118,K%25%7Cgt%7C0.2,K%25%7Clt %7C0.25,PA%7Cgt%7C160&position=B&statType=player&autoPt=true&sort=10,1&pg=0

The median batting line for this type of hitter is a .715-720 OPS.

According to the list of all 22 qualified players at 3B:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d

That type of offensive production simply won't play at 3B. And that is with Rio almost always having the platoon advantage. I don't see Rio being any part of the solution in 2018, or ever.

On to Camargo...

Camargo's outlook all depends on how much you believe in his inflated ISO in AAA and MLB this season. If you believe he is the ~.115 ISO guy the projections suggest, he is similar to these 21 players:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssplits.aspx?splitArr=&strgroup=season&statgroup=2&startDate=2000-03-01&endDate=2017-11-01&filter=K%25%7Cgt%7C0.15,K%25%7Clt%7C0.2,BB%25%7Cgt %7C0.045,BB%25%7Clt%7C0.055,ISO%7Clt%7C0.125,ISO%7 Cgt%7C0.105,PA%7Cgt%7C250&position=B&statType=player&autoPt=true&sort=10,1&pg=0

The median line for those players is a .700 OPS. That guy is not playable at 3B either.

However, if you believe Camargo is actually the .150+ ISO guy he has shown to be this season, these are the comparable players:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssplits.aspx?splitArr=&strgroup=season&statgroup=2&startDate=2000-03-01&endDate=2017-11-01&filter=K%25%7Cgt%7C0.15,K%25%7Clt%7C0.2,BB%25%7Cgt %7C0.045,BB%25%7Clt%7C0.055,ISO%7Clt%7C0.16,ISO%7C gt%7C0.15,PA%7Cgt%7C250&position=B&statType=player&autoPt=true&sort=10,1&pg=0

The median line for that type of hitter is .750-.760. That is by no means a good offensive player at 3B, but at least now it falls in the range...even if it's in the bottom 5.

That player might be useful if he has excellent defense, and that is precisely what Camargo is at 3B. But how good? How much WAR can we expect from a glove-only guy at 3B?

Looking at the same group of qualified players at 3B sorted by the Defense portion of fWAR:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=8,d

We see Camargo will probably fall into the 8-9 range with guys like Arenado and Seager. A zero for Offense plus 8-9 for Defense, plus 1 for League, plus 18 for Replacement gives a fWAR value of ~2.8.

It all depends on how much of Camargo's power is real. He is either a glove-only 2-3 WAR guy at 3B, or a utility player without enough bat to play every day at 3B and not enough range to play everyday at SS.

I think it's worth taking a look next year rather than acquiring a "sure thing" guy to post 2-3 WAR at 3B.

Ultimately, I think we see Camargo given a few hundred PAs to start the season and shows he is a utility guy. We will then see a revolving door at 3B with guys like Rio, Camargo and Adonis splitting time until Riley is given a shot late in the year. By the end of the year I expect 3B to still be a problem.

[thewupk]

Camargo has the defensive upside at 3B to try him out there. To me 2018 is still a non contending season so it doesn't hurt to see what you have there. Fill the hole with a legit solution if there isn't one internally when it's time to contend.

[50PoundHead]

I've been one of Camargo's biggest supporters on the board and I think that Enscheff and thewupk have summed it up well here. I still see Camargo as a 350 AB utility guy, but I saw Prado the same way when he was coming up, so you never know about these guys. I wouldn't invest heavily in the position in what will likely be a non-contending season. We'll know more about Riley when he hits AAA next season, so that's another reason to sit tight.

[thethe]

I think third base has the easiest answer out of all the 'questions' going into the offseason. More important to spend whatever available resources elsewhere.

[nsacpi]

What assumption was made regarding Carmargo's strikeout rate next year?

[TheBravos]

Fact. They are rushing Riley and unless he regresses or is traded, he will be called up at some point next year. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is given the chance to win the job out of spring training. Not saying I agree with that, but I think that’s very likely.

[thethe]

Fact. They are rushing Riley and unless he regresses or is traded, he will be called up at some point next year. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is given the chance to win the job out of spring training. Not saying I agree with that, but I think that’s very likely.

Big mistake - I think he needs at the very least 450 more minor league AB's before he is in the discussion for a solution at third base. I like where he is now but he has a long ways to go.

[TheBravos]

Big mistake - I think he needs at the very least 450 more minor league AB's before he is in the discussion for a solution at third base. I like where he is now but he has a long ways to go.

Well yeah...of course. He isn’t ready. They are in a gap at 3rd. I think the believe Riley is the answer (at least until KM arrives). If they can’t find a short term answer, they will rush him. Anyone in AA with the Braves these days....

[thethe]

Well yeah...of course. He isn’t ready. They are in a gap at 3rd. I think the believe Riley is the answer (at least until KM arrives). If they can’t find a short term answer, they will rush him. Anyone in AA with the Braves these days....

To nobodies surprise I am bullish on Riley. I think his production along with the reports of above average defense have raised his stock from this time last year. THe power is legit and if the defense is legit as well then you have a decent option while in his cheap years. If he can find a way to get that BB/KK ratios moving int he right direction then we are talking about a whole new ballgame.

[cajunrevenge]

With the young pitching I would go with Camargo and Ruiz at 3b. 2018 is probably a year too early so we don't need to add big contracts when we have plenty of cheap options. Give Camargo and Ruiz a chance for 2018. Maybe both are reserve caliber players but deserve a chance in the majors. Riley is on the cusp of the majors. I figure he gets 2019 till Maitan is ready. He should be by the time Riley hits arbitration years. He might transition to the OF at that point if he is a good hitter. His defense might be acceptable early in his career but it will probably deteriorate quickly as he gets older and bigger.

[Carp]

Hopefully Riley can become Mark Reynolds, but with better defense (or what Todd Frazier is now) That's a valuable player while he's cheap.

But, he is not ready. He realistically needs at least another 1.5 years. I'm not opposed to Carmargo necessarily, but I'd rather try to find a better, short term option.

Todd Frazier is the best of the short term FA options, imo. I honestly don't think he gets a 4 year deal unless he signs early. If he tries to wait the market out, I think it will not be kind to him. Lots of semi decent 3b options on the market this year who should sign 1 or 2 year deals. If we could get him for around 3/45ish, I'd be more than ok with bringing him on board.

Among the other FA options, Jed Lowrie makes some sense, but he is 33 and will likely require a 3 year contract. Considering this is first full season he has played in 3 seasons, I don't feel too comfortable giving him more than 2 years and 25 million with a 3rd year option. Asdrubal Cabrera, Eduardo Nunez, and Danny Valencia all are solid short term options as well.

I think the key to 3b will be determined by the big trade we will inevitably be making this fall/winter. A very good chance Carmargo is on the move in one way or another. Whether that's as a centerpiece in a trade package or simply being moved across the diamond as someone else is traded, I simply don't think we'll see much of Carmargo at 3b in 2017, no matter which team he is on.

[Enscheff]

What assumption was made regarding Carmargo's strikeout rate next year?

The 15%-20% range was selected specifically because I agree with your assessment that his K rate is likely to come down next year. He is at the top of that range this year, but being grouped with guys who generally struck out less than he did this year.

[nsacpi]

Hopefully Riley can become Mark Reynolds, but with better defense (or what Todd Frazier is now) That's a valuable player while he's cheap.

But, he is not ready. He realistically needs at least another 1.5 years. I'm not opposed to Carmargo necessarily, but I'd rather try to find a better, short term option.

Todd Frazier is the best of the short term FA options, imo. I honestly don't think he gets a 4 year deal unless he signs early. If he tries to wait the market out, I think it will not be kind to him. Lots of semi decent 3b options on the market this year who should sign 1 or 2 year deals. If we could get him for around 3/45ish, I'd be more than ok with bringing him on board.

Among the other FA options, Jed Lowrie makes some sense, but he is 33 and will likely require a 3 year contract. Considering this is first full season he has played in 3 seasons, I don't feel too comfortable giving him more than 2 years and 25 million with a 3rd year option. Asdrubal Cabrera, Eduardo Nunez, and Danny Valencia all are solid short term options as well.

I think the key to 3b will be determined by the big trade we will inevitably be making this fall/winter. A very good chance Carmargo is on the move in one way or another. Whether that's as a centerpiece in a trade package or simply being moved across the diamond as someone else is traded, I simply don't think we'll see much of Carmargo at 3b in 2017, no matter which team he is on.

I think the A's plan on picking up Lowrie's option. I like the idea of picking up someone like Cabrera or Nunez. We need some insurance against the possibility that Swanson continues to be a replacement level player.

[Enscheff]

Hopefully Riley can become Mark Reynolds, but with better defense (or what Todd Frazier is now) That's a valuable player while he's cheap.

But, he is not ready. He realistically needs at least another 1.5 years. I'm not opposed to Carmargo necessarily, but I'd rather try to find a better, short term option.

Todd Frazier is the best of the short term FA options, imo. I honestly don't think he gets a 4 year deal unless he signs early. If he tries to wait the market out, I think it will not be kind to him. Lots of semi decent 3b options on the market this year who should sign 1 or 2 year deals. If we could get him for around 3/45ish, I'd be more than ok with bringing him on board.

Among the other FA options, Jed Lowrie makes some sense, but he is 33 and will likely require a 3 year contract. Considering this is first full season he has played in 3 seasons, I don't feel too comfortable giving him more than 2 years and 25 million with a 3rd year option. Asdrubal Cabrera, Eduardo Nunez, and Danny Valencia all are solid short term options as well.

I think the key to 3b will be determined by the big trade we will inevitably be making this fall/winter. A very good chance Carmargo is on the move in one way or another. Whether that's as a centerpiece in a trade package or simply being moved across the diamond as someone else is traded, I simply don't think we'll see much of Carmargo at 3b in 2017, no matter which team he is on.

If the Braves were at the 85 win mark on the win curve, I would agree with getting a short term fix at 3b they could pencil in for 2-3 wins.

If they had plans to improve the team to the 85 win level, I would agree with acquiring a more dependable answer at 3b.

However, all signs and comments point to the Braves having very little money to add anything this offseason. Their "big" signings are likely to be a BP arm or two. Those improvements aren't enough to get this roster anywhere near 85 wins, so i would like them to "see what they have" with Camargo, just like they did with Adonis. The main difference is Camargo at least has a chance to be valuable, whereas it was beyond obvious almost immediately that Adonis wasn't the answer.

[nsacpi]

The 15%-20% range was selected specifically because I agree with your assessment that his K rate is likely to come down next year. He is at the top of that range this year, but being grouped with guys who generally struck out less than he did this year.

At the minor league level, his history is that of a one level per year guy with the following strikeout rates:

Low A at age 20 10.5% K rate
High A at age 21 12.0%
AA at age 22 16.7%
AAA at age 23 15.5%

Where I'm going with this is that the Braves accelerated his timetable this year by moving him to the majors after only 142 PAs in AAA. In effect he was skipped a level. I make this observation not to criticize his being skipped a level but to argue that it is reasonable to infer from his progression through the minors that he will be about a 15% K rate player in the majors next year.

His overall K rate in the majors this year was 19.9%. First half was 21.6% in 111 PAs and second half was 18.6% in 145 PAs. I think he is much more likely to be around 15% next year than around 20%. Its a difference that matters.

[NinersSBChamps]

Projecting Dansby Swanson will hit at least .240 this season. How did that work?

[nsacpi]

If the Braves were at the 85 win mark on the win curve, I would agree with getting a short term fix at 3b they could pencil in for 2-3 wins.

If they had plans to improve the team to the 85 win level, I would agree with acquiring a more dependable answer at 3b.

However, all signs and comments point to the Braves having very little money to add anything this offseason. Their "big" signings are likely to be a BP arm or two. Those improvements aren't enough to get this roster anywhere near 85 wins, so i would like them to "see what they have" with Camargo, just like they did with Adonis. The main difference is Camargo at least has a chance to be valuable, whereas it was beyond obvious almost immediately that Adonis wasn't the answer.

I could see us spending a total of about 15M on a bullpen arm plus someone like Nunez.

That will probably be their fallback plan this off-season. Their more aggressive plan will be to explore the availability of guys like Archer and Fulmer in trade scenarios where we send multiple pitchers/pitching prospects to the other team (quantity for quality). I think the odds are less than 50% that this plan will come to fruition but that will be their initial approach. The fallback plan is the more likely outcome.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

Projecting Dansby Swanson will hit at least .240 this season. How did that work?Well in comparison to the people who projected .270

[Jaw]

I prefer going primarily with Camargo over a stop gap simply because he is a plus defender. In a non contention year I like the idea of putting as many good defenders as possible behind the young pitchers to help minimize their mistakes and the perception that they need to strike everyone out.

That personal preference of mine will also make me more inclined to forgive them for mismanagement of Acuna's service time if they replace either of the outfield statues with him.

[Knucksie]

To nobodies surprise I am bullish on Riley. I think his production along with the reports of above average defense have raised his stock from this time last year. THe power is legit and if the defense is legit as well then you have a decent option while in his cheap years. If he can find a way to get that BB/KK ratios moving int he right direction then we are talking about a whole new ballgame.

Riley could be the diamond in the rough at 3rd, but everybody's a placeholder for Maitan.

[Carp]

If the Braves were at the 85 win mark on the win curve, I would agree with getting a short term fix at 3b they could pencil in for 2-3 wins.

If they had plans to improve the team to the 85 win level, I would agree with acquiring a more dependable answer at 3b.

However, all signs and comments point to the Braves having very little money to add anything this offseason. Their "big" signings are likely to be a BP arm or two. Those improvements aren't enough to get this roster anywhere near 85 wins, so i would like them to "see what they have" with Camargo, just like they did with Adonis. The main difference is Camargo at least has a chance to be valuable, whereas it was beyond obvious almost immediately that Adonis wasn't the answer.

The Braves have shed a good bit of payroll this year. Even with some raises, I don't think it's out of the question what we could have anywhere between 20-25 million available, may be more depending on if we can move any salaries.

[Southcack77]

The Braves have shed a good bit of payroll this year. Even with some raises, I don't think it's out of the question what we could have anywhere between 20-25 million available, may be more depending on if we can move any salaries.

Garcia 12 m
Colon 12 m
S-Rod 5 m
Collmenter 1.2 m
Phillips 1 m

*Dickey 8 m

[Enscheff]

Are we really using the "these contracts expired so that's how much they have to spend" method to determine spending capacity?

[Southcack77]

Are we really using the "these contracts expired so that's how much they have to spend" method to determine spending capacity?

We are not. We are looking at the 39-40 million of opening day 2017 contracts that won't be on the opening day 2018 roster* and then mentally adjusting for step up in contract salary and arbitration and making an educated guess at how much will be remaining.

I know you for whatever reason think the Braves are broke and will be carrying much less payroll. I don't think they are broke. I kind of hope they carry less payroll but don't think they are going to have to.

[Enscheff]

That's a great way to not commit to an opinion. "They may have a lower payroll, but they didn't have to".

Let ignorance reign for the next 6 months!

[Southcack77]

That's a great way to not commit to an opinion. "They may have a lower payroll, but they didn't have to".

Let ignorance reign for the next 6 months!

I think the payroll will most likely be between 115 and 125 million, which is more or less what it was this year.

[Southcack77]

And don't think I haven't noticed the -- if they don't do much the Braves are broke -- if they do anything they are desperate -- scenario you've been refining.

[Carp]

Are we really using the "these contracts expired so that's how much they have to spend" method to determine spending capacity?

While we don't know what we have to spend or what ownership will allow payroll to be, I think we have a good idea what to expect based on this year's payroll. Given that info with what we know is committed to 2018 and given a very rough guestimate of about 20-25 million in Arby raises, that (should) leave us with 20-25 million to spend.

[Enscheff]

While we don't know what we have to spend or what ownership will allow payroll to be, I think we have a good idea what to expect based on this year's payroll. Given that info with what we know is committed to 2018 and given a very rough guestimate of about 20-25 million in Arby raises, that (should) leave us with 20-25 million to spend.

You honestly think the payroll is going to be $120M-$125M again?

What part of "the main acquisition will be a BP arm or 2" isn't registering?

The payroll is likely to be closer to $110M than $125M.

[BeanieAntics]

You honestly think the payroll is going to be $120M-$125M again?

What part of "the main acquisition will be a BP arm or 2" isn't registering?

The payroll is likely to be closer to $110M than $125M.

Yeah I don't think our payroll is going up a ton. I could see it being a little more than 110, but not by much. I'm not a big fan of going after any bullpen pieces this year, so honestly I really don't see much in this FA class that I would go after. Everyone is either out of our price range, isn't good, or is bad for the long term outlook of our club. I guess I may be okay with signing one decent right handed reliever, but I would much prefer just going with the youth movement because I think we have some really talented young BP arms. I would love to see what Akeel Morris has over the course of a season.

[Carp]

You honestly think the payroll is going to be $120M-$125M again?

What part of "the main acquisition will be a BP arm or 2" isn't registering?

The payroll is likely to be closer to $110M than $125M.

The FO has stated payroll will go up. The number of teams who decrease payroll a year opening a new stadium is virtually nonexistent outside of maybe the Marlins But even the Marlins have spent a little money.

You continously say that the FO is making untimely roster moves to save their jobs, but somehow they will choose to decrease payroll in a year that could be a make it or break it year for them?

With that being said, they may decide the players in FA aren't worth committing a good chunk of money to and may be they don't use all of the money allocated. I would expect them to go for it next season though, so I would be willing to bet they don't sit on that money.