Braves in the AZL

[Enscheff]

The Braves prospects in the AZL had a pretty good opening day!

Acuna 2-4
Fried 3 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 7 K, 1 BB
Touki 2 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 4 K, 1 BB
Graham 1 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 2 K, 0 BB
Clouse 2 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 3 K, 1 BB

I'd say 8 IP, 0 R, 5 H, 16 K and 3 BB is a pretty damn good day for the Braves pitchers. I wonder if Longenhagen was on hand to give us a report on how the pitchers looked.

[JxnMissFan]

The Braves prospects in the AZL had a pretty good opening day!

Acuna 2-4
Fried 3 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 7 K, 1 BB
Touki 2 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 4 K, 1 BB
Graham 1 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 2 K, 0 BB
Clouse 2 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 3 K, 1 BB

I'd say 8 IP, 0 R, 5 H, 16 K and 3 BB is a pretty damn good day for the Braves pitchers. I wonder if Longenhagen was on hand to give us a report on how the pitchers looked.

Should we be worried that Acuna didn't go 4 - 4 with 4 extra base hits???

Isn't AZL AAA level competition?

[rico43]

Also today,

Austin Riley 0-4, 3 K
Alex Jackson 0-3

Toussaint credited with win

Jackson 1-2 in caught stealing
Fried had a pickoff

[mqt]

Good reports on Jackson at C, as well.

[Enscheff]

Should we be worried that Acuna didn't go 4 - 4 with 4 extra base hits???

Isn't AZL AAA level competition?

I think for the most part the hitters are better than the pitchers. Of the 11 Top 100 guys in the league, only 2 are pitchers (Keller and Sheffield). There is a scout's wet dream of OFers though: Robles, Acuna, Tucker, Lewis, Ray, Diaz and Florial.

Nothing Acuna does in the AZL matters. The Braves are almost certainly going to blow a year of control and have him in RF opening day next year unless his leg falls off. The FO is too desperate to contend next year for anything else to happen.

[MadduxFanII]

I think for the most part the hitters are better than the pitchers. Of the 11 Top 100 guys in the league, only 2 are pitchers (Keller and Sheffield). There is a scout's wet dream of OFers though: Robles, Acuna, Tucker, Lewis, Ray, Diaz and Florial.

Nothing Acuna does in the AZL matters. The Braves are almost certainly going to blow a year of control and have him in RF opening day next year unless his leg falls off.

*sharpens machete*

A man does not merely observe. A man acts.

[Nerfherders]

I'm surprised Fried and Acuna are there. Usually all the Braves are on the same team, but I assume not this year?

[salmagundy]

Game 2 of AFL season. Acuna went 1-4 with a single. Now 3-8, all singles.

[CyYoung31]

Acuna left today's game with a forearm contusion.

918572639773368321

[salmagundy]

Riley went 3-5 with HR and an error. Peoria knocked out 16 hits and scored 10 runs. Acuna scored 2 runs before leaving game after being HBP.

[50PoundHead]

I see the Braves sent Jared James down there as well. We have 8 guys on the Peoria roster.

[salmagundy]

Game 5 of AFL season, Peoria won 12-2 ovewr Salt River Rafters.

Acuna(.333) had a single, 2 out RBI, Jackson(.167) had a Grand Slam, James(.250) had a single

Toussaint 2 IP, 1 BB, 4 Ks, Graham 1 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER

[Knucksie]

Isn't AZL AAA level competition?

AFL is probably even better. It features higher caliber AA and AAA prospects with real futures. No scrubs.

[depley]

Fried with another good outing 5 innings 1 hit, one walk, and 4 strike outs, zero runs

[salmagundy]

Fried with another good outing 5 innings 1 hit, one walk, and 4 strike outs, zero runs

Additionally ---

Acuna with 1-5(single) and Jackson 2-4(both singles)

[Russ2dollas]

Additionally ---

Acuna with 1-5(single) and Jackson 2-4(both singles)

Klaw with an insider article today. Mentioned AJax. Said he looked much better at the plate and looked horrible at C.

[Enscheff]

Klaw with an insider article today. Mentioned AJax. Said he looked much better at the plate and looked horrible at C.

I was told he will be a Top 100 prospect next year though. So worry not.

[Chico]

Klaw with an insider article today. Mentioned AJax. Said he looked much better at the plate and looked horrible at C.

Yeah, most reports have not been good as far as his catching. I think he's destined for LF. I think it's fine to have him keep catching though. He might take a big leap forward and if not he can be an emergency catcher. It's not like it'll be hard to learn LF. Nobody grooms a LF'er.

[salmagundy]

Tues game, Peoria got spanked by Sunrise 10-3. No Braves players played in game.

[Russ2dollas]

Yeah, most reports have not been good as far as his catching. I think he's destined for LF. I think it's fine to have him keep catching though. He might take a big leap forward and if not he can be an emergency catcher. It's not like it'll be hard to learn LF. Nobody grooms a LF'er.

Consensus seems to be he’s bad. That said we heard the same thing on Gattis and he’s catching in playoff games. Nobody seems to care it’s his first try in a long time catching. I don’t see the bat food enough to excite me at a corner.

A couple of scouts like him at catcher. Pitchers seem to like him

I’d bet he’s a non mlb player bc can’t catch well enough to catch and can’t hit enough for corner. But I’d leave him there and see what happens. Bar is so low at catcher now. Maybe he could be a bench bat third catcher or offense bases backups catcher

[CJ9]

Consensus seems to be he’s bad. That said we heard the same thing on Gattis and he’s catching in playoff games. Nobody seems to care it’s his first try in a long time catching. I don’t see the bat food enough to excite me at a corner.

A couple of scouts like him at catcher. Pitchers seem to like him

I’d bet he’s a non mlb player bc can’t catch well enough to catch and can’t hit enough for corner. But I’d leave him there and see what happens. Bar is so low at catcher now. Maybe he could be a bench bat third catcher or offense bases backups catcher

You bring up some good points, one especially that I've been struggling with. I keep reading how he's bad behind home plate, but did anyone expect him to step in and be a Molina back there in his first year? That's what I'm struggling with in these reports. No one is writing about whether or not the issues are fixable. I get that the chances of him sticking are low and have been all along, but I just want to know if the flaws can be fixed. Especially considering most people are getting their first look at him now at the end of his first year catching.

[Super]

Jackson is not yet 22, might be a bit early to say he doesn't have the bat for a corner. He need a good bit of time still, but plenty of chance he develops.

[Enscheff]

Ben: What’s your opinion on Alex Jackson behind the plate after seeing him in the AFL? Seems like everyone is saying he struggled behind the plate, and if you agree, is it fixable? I’d imagine it’s probably expected that a guy would struggle in his first year transitioning back to catcher.
12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah and Fall League catchers are particularly tough to evaluate because they’re here after a long season and catching an entirely new staff of pitchers. You take it with a grain of salt because catchers really get beat up during the year and the position requires a lot of energy to do competently, let alone well. And I think you’re right that these issues are compounded by it being Jackson’s first year back. But his catching has been, at best, of mixed quality in my looks so far.

Logan: Is Max Fried showing the kind of stuff in Arizona that made him sound so exciting at the end of the Rome playoff run last year? The results certainly have been strong so far.
12:09
Eric A Longenhagen: Stuff is great — like 92-96 with a plus curveball and average changeup — but still needs to improve command which, at age 23, is still possible but perhaps not very likely. He did miss time recovering from TJ so maybe the command is coming later.

Logan: Has Austin Riley done anything in Arizona to enhance your opinion of him?
12:10
Eric A Longenhagen: He looks more loose and fluid than he has in the past but hasn’t moved the needle all that much.

Starter or Relievers: Max Fried and Sandy Alcantara. Starters or relievers for you?
12:59
Eric A Longenhagen: I have both projected as starters but am less confident about Fried

[CJ9]

Alex Jackson homered today in his first at bat.

[thethe]

Encouraged by the velocity readings in Fried. Still believe he can be a TOR type pitcher.

[Enscheff]

Encouraged by the velocity readings in Fried. Still believe he can be a TOR type pitcher.

Are there any Braves pitching prospects you don't think can be TOR pitchers?

[CJ9]

Jackson's up to 3-4 with a homer, double and single.

[Chico]

Jackson's up to 3-4 with a homer, double and single.

Nice!

[CJ9]

Jackson actually got another at bat and doubled. So he'll end the day 4-5 with a single, two doubles and a homer.

[Enscheff]

Top 50!!

[thethe]

Jackson actually got another at bat and doubled. So he'll end the day 4-5 with a single, two doubles and a homer.

Can't wait to see how he does in miss next year. Kids a stud. Just needed out of seattle.

[msstate7]

Can't wait to see how he does in miss next year. Kids a stud. Just needed out of seattle.

You positive he starts at miss? Could be Gwinnett

[thethe]

You positive he starts at miss? Could be Gwinnett

Very well could. Think they will yske it slow because of his injury issues last year.

[salmagundy]

Peoria beat Surprise 6-4 on 15 hits lead by Braves players.

Acuna 1-4(single), BBs, 2 Ks(.286)
Jackson 4-5, 2 Dbls, HR, single(.381), PB
James 2-4, 2 Dbls, 1 BB, 1 K(.333)

No Braves pitchers in game.

[CJ9]

You positive he starts at miss? Could be Gwinnett

I don't think there's any way he starts at Gwinnett. The bat could maybe handle it, but there is zero reason to rush him defensively.

[msstate7]

Riley?

[Enscheff]

You positive he starts at miss? Could be Gwinnett

He will probably just start on the NL all star team. If he bats any lower than 5th it's a sham.

[Chico]

You positive he starts at miss? Could be Gwinnett

They'll want to have Sanchez or another vet like him on the roster and Kade should also be slated for Gwinnett. We should have Ajax and Cumberland in MS all year next year working with the best catching instructor we can find.

[50PoundHead]

Why rush these guys? I put little stock in the Arizona Fall League stats. I worry more about guys getting injured. Riley has plenty to work on. I'd start him at Mississippi. AAA has become somewhat of an elephants' graveyard with a ton of older guys who still project as 24th or 25th guys on a roster and are hanging on for their dear baseball life. It makes little difference (at least to me) for development purposes to put young guys in AAA as some sort of proving ground. It's more about total minor league ABs with at least a year at AA or above in my eyes.

[Tapate50]

Why rush these guys? I put little stock in the Arizona Fall League stats. I worry more about guys getting injured. Riley has plenty to work on. I'd start him at Mississippi. AAA has become somewhat of an elephants' graveyard with a ton of older guys who still project as 24th or 25th guys on a roster and are hanging on for their dear baseball life. It makes little difference (at least to me) for development purposes to put young guys in AAA as some sort of proving ground. It's more about total minor league ABs with at least a year at AA or above in my eyes.

Great post. Agreed

[clvclv]

Why rush these guys? I put little stock in the Arizona Fall League stats. I worry more about guys getting injured. Riley has plenty to work on. I'd start him at Mississippi. AAA has become somewhat of an elephants' graveyard with a ton of older guys who still project as 24th or 25th guys on a roster and are hanging on for their dear baseball life. It makes little difference (at least to me) for development purposes to put young guys in AAA as some sort of proving ground. It's more about total minor league ABs with at least a year at AA or above in my eyes.

I have no problem with pushing the right young arms (Allard, Soroka, Wright) a little aggressively and having them spend time at the AAA level for that exact reason - these guys are going to be a LOT more selective than the hitters you'll see at the lower levels. I like having them make at least a handful of starts at Gwinnett so they're not completely shocked when people start spitting on their breaking balls when they're not even close to strikes. I do think it's better for hitters to spend more time at each level because it takes so much longer to have them develop pitch recognition and a solid approach. As mentioned elsewhere, Dansby was likely promoted for other reasons, and it created an obvious speed bump for him - but I think he's proving he's capable of making the needed adjustments (even though he's "on the clock" while doing so). We're likely to see Albies have an easier time because he spent more time against more advanced pitching in Mississippi and Gwinnett, but we're also likely to see Acuna be the type of exception to the rule that Andruw was - he simply advances to the next level and steps up as the quality of competition around him improves. This is the reason that you simply have to let some things be decided by your eyes.

Riley and Jackson are certainly worth getting excited about, but neither need to be pushed at all (IMO), and there's no reason either should start 2018 any higher than Mississippi - and if the plan is to keep Jackson behind the plate defensively, one could argue he probably should spend ALL of 2018 at AA no matter how well he performs. If his bat continues improving and you want to push him, that's fine, but he doesn't need to be behind the plate if you do - EVERY Catcher needs to spend much more time developing his thought process, game-calling, and defensive skills than anyone else.

[nsacpi]

Some 2017 numbers on Austin Riley that curb my enthusiasm:

Strikeout rate in High A: 21.8%
Strikeout rate in AA: 24.6%

BABIP in High A: .289
BABIP in AA: .393

He was a bit unlucky in High A BABIP-wise and very lucky in AA. It is unlikely that he suddenly "improved" mid-season at about the time of his promotion. More likely, he went from a cold streak to a hot streak.

Having said that he is a good prospect. Someone to keep an eye on.

[50PoundHead]

I have no problem with pushing the right young arms (Allard, Soroka, Wright) a little aggressively and having them spend time at the AAA level for that exact reason - these guys are going to be a LOT more selective than the hitters you'll see at the lower levels. I like having them make at least a handful of starts at Gwinnett so they're not completely shocked when people start spitting on their breaking balls when they're not even close to strikes. I do think it's better for hitters to spend more time at each level because it takes so much longer to have them develop pitch recognition and a solid approach. As mentioned elsewhere, Dansby was likely promoted for other reasons, and it created an obvious speed bump for him - but I think he's proving he's capable of making the needed adjustments (even though he's "on the clock" while doing so). We're likely to see Albies have an easier time because he spent more time against more advanced pitching in Mississippi and Gwinnett, but we're also likely to see Acuna be the type of exception to the rule that Andruw was - he simply advances to the next level and steps up as the quality of competition around him improves. This is the reason that you simply have to let some things be decided by your eyes.

Riley and Jackson are certainly worth getting excited about, but neither need to be pushed at all (IMO), and there's no reason either should start 2018 any higher than Mississippi - and if the plan is to keep Jackson behind the plate defensively, one could argue he probably should spend ALL of 2018 at AA no matter how well he performs. If his bat continues improving and you want to push him, that's fine, but he doesn't need to be behind the plate if you do - EVERY Catcher needs to spend much more time developing his thought process, game-calling, and defensive skills than anyone else.

I agree that it's different for pitchers as there is a challenge to getting more experienced hitters out. Quality strikes in AA may not be quality strikes in AAA because of the experience factors of the hitters. But for hitters, I would be curious to know the average velocity of pitches in AAA when compared to AA. I wouldn't be surprised if hitters saw more velocity in AA. Probably less control, but maybe more velocity. Anyone from the more stat-inclined corridor of the board know how the get the comparative numbers?

[Enscheff]

I agree that it's different for pitchers as there is a challenge to getting more experienced hitters out. Quality strikes in AA may not be quality strikes in AAA because of the experience factors of the hitters. But for hitters, I would be curious to know the average velocity of pitches in AAA when compared to AA. I wouldn't be surprised if hitters saw more velocity in AA. Probably less control, but maybe more velocity. Anyone from the more stat-inclined corridor of the board know how the get the comparative numbers?

AAA is definitely more of a holding tank than a developmental step.

Having said that, I think there a can be a lot learned by hitters and pitchers in AAA. That mix of fringe MLB guys and recently promoted AA guys provides a great mix of skill sets for players to grow against.

Did Albies benefit from his time in AAA refining his LHed swing against pitchers who could exploit his holes? I think the answer is undoubtedly yes.

Would Swanson have seen good enough sliders in AAA to expose his weakness? Probably not considering they wouldn't game plan around him.

Can Gohara work on his change in AAA while guys like Sims, Fried and Newk get 10+ starts in 2018 to prove whether or not they belong? Absolutely.

Did Newk improve his command at AAA? Definitely not.

Development at AAA is a mixed bag, but young players probably benefit more than older players from a few months at that level.

[CJ9]

Alex Jackson homered again.

[Enscheff]

Alex Jackson homered again.

Top 25!

[bravesfanMatt]

Touki with a meh performance.

1ip with 2 solo shots. Dropping him out of the top 50 surely.

[Enscheff]

Touki with a meh performance.

1ip with 2 solo shots. Dropping him out of the top 50 surely.

Probably #51-52.

Thethe still thinks he can be a TOR pitcher though.

[Horsehide Harry]

AAA is definitely more of a holding tank than a developmental step.

Having said that, I think there a can be a lot learned by hitters and pitchers in AAA. That mix of fringe MLB guys and recently promoted AA guys provides a great mix of skill sets for players to grow against.

Did Albies benefit from his time in AAA refining his LHed swing against pitchers who could exploit his holes? I think the answer is undoubtedly yes.

Would Swanson have seen good enough sliders in AAA to expose his weakness? Probably not considering they wouldn't game plan around him.

Can Gohara work on his change in AAA while guys like Sims, Fried and Newk get 10+ starts in 2018 to prove whether or not they belong? Absolutely.

Did Newk improve his command at AAA? Definitely not.

Development at AAA is a mixed bag, but young players probably benefit more than older players from a few months at that level.

I think that depends. If you put Swanson hitting 3 or 4 in the lineup at AAA with some good OBP guys in front of him, he may have faced more sliders overall with some actually being good MLB sliders.

After all, the purpose of minor league ball is development of players not W/L. However, too often, I think you end up with cave man thinking from minor league managers who want to win and manage like it was game 7.

[clvclv]

I think that depends. If you put Swanson hitting 3 or 4 in the lineup at AAA with some good OBP guys in front of him, he may have faced more sliders overall with some actually being good MLB sliders.

After all, the purpose of minor league ball is development of players not W/L. However, too often, I think you end up with cave man thinking from minor league managers who want to win and manage like it was game 7.

Not if someone didn't tell you so...come on, now!!!

[Enscheff]

It's probably not a good sign when BP puts a "?" next to the "C" for a player's game summary...

"Alex Jackson, C?, Peoria Javelinas (Atlanta Braves): 1-4, R, HR, RBI, 3 K
It has been a long season for Jackson. After being acquired from Seattle, Jackson has spent the bulk of the season behind the plate. He needs as many reps as he can get, but he has been tiring, with reports being underwhelming."

[Millwood1Hitter]

Another overhyped piece of garbage that'll never amount to anything in the leafue

[Super]

Longenhagen chat started off with a Braves bang:

Greg
12:02 Do you think Alex Jackson will atleast be a MLB back up type, 4th OFer/3rd catcher type, power off bench?

Eric A Longenhagen
12:04 I think there's enough going on that he has some kind of big league role, yes. And I don't rule him out as a regular just yet. I've probably said this before, but evaluating catcher defense in the AFL is really tough. Guys are ground down from a long season and also suddenly catching an entirely new staff. I've had many scouts warn me of mistakes they've made by weighing AFL looks at catchers too heavily.

[Super]

Dan
12:04 In curious if you could provide some semi historical context for the relative wave of “meh” reviews we are getting on Maitan. In terms of other top international amateurs, I have to imagine many struggle as 17 year olds, and many have body concerns. Does this feel more noteworthy just because of the “generational talent” hype? Is this a relatively normal level of struggle?

Eric A Longenhagen
12:08 Sure. Yes, 17-year olds who come here and are asked to rapidly assimilate to our culture (which includes access to a lot of food that isn't good for you which, at age 17, I l consumed frequently) often struggle to do so. And that combined with the difficulty of being a pro baseball player often leads to some unflattering growing pains. So, while I'd rather have scouts telling me he looks amazing, this isn't something to lose sleep over just yet. At least I don't think so.

[Enscheff]

Longenhagen chat started off with a Braves bang:

Greg
12:02 Do you think Alex Jackson will atleast be a MLB back up type, 4th OFer/3rd catcher type, power off bench?

Eric A Longenhagen
12:04 I think there's enough going on that he has some kind of big league role, yes. And I don't rule him out as a regular just yet. I've probably said this before, but evaluating catcher defense in the AFL is really tough. Guys are ground down from a long season and also suddenly catching an entirely new staff. I've had many scouts warn me of mistakes they've made by weighing AFL looks at catchers too heavily.

AJax fits the mold of an average or slightly better bat without a position to play other than 1B, where his bat won't be good enough to carry. Some team will try to shoehorn him in LF for a while until he's too expensive for the overall production he provides.

Lazy comp: RHed Matt Adams.

[striker42]

AJax fits the mold of an average or slightly better bat without a position to play other than 1B, where his bat won't be good enough to carry. Some team will try to shoehorn him in LF for a while until he's too expensive for the overall production he provides.

Lazy comp: RHed Matt Adams.

Matt Adams isn't a terrible comp. If Jackson could hit like Adams in the majors and play average defense behind the plate then he's a pretty good starter. However, I don't know if he'll ever be average behind the plate.

If Jackson can at least not embarrass himself behind the plate while playing some left and first and hitting like Adams, he's a pretty valuable bench piece.

[Nerfherders]

We all said the same thing about Evan Gattis.

[50PoundHead]

Anyone have scouting reports on Jackson's OF defense during his stint in the Mariners' system?

[clvclv]

Anyone have scouting reports on Jackson's OF defense during his stint in the Mariners' system?

Ben Chase loosely likened him to Adam Duvall earlier (https://tomahawktake.com/2016/12/02/atlanta-braves-scouting-report-alex-jackson/), but I'd expect he'd still need to work on his reads to get close to that level. Even so, if he could get within range of Duvall defensively, that would be fine since he won't need to be quite as good in LF. Jason Churchill mentioned that he was handling RF just fine as late as the middle of 2016 - http://prospectinsider.com/ms-mid-season-top-20-prospects/
.
Bernie Pleskoff mentioned that he actually was an OF before switching to Catcher in high school (hadn't heard that before), and says it's fair to question whether he'll wind up being better behind the plate than Mike Zunino so maybe we won't need to find out.

https://www.fanragsports.com/pleskoff-scouting-report-alex-jackson/

[salmagundy]

Since being moved out of the lead off spot, Acuna has caught fire. hitting 2nd, last 6 games have produced all of his XBHs 4 DBLs, 3 HRs.

He is currently hitting .366 with 15 jhits in 41 ABs, 9 RBIs, 6 BBs, 10 Ks, 2 SB, 1 CS, .440 OBP, .683 Slg, 1123 OPS.

[thethe]

Since being moved out of the lead off spot, Acuna has caught fire. hitting 2nd, last 6 games have produced all of his XBHs 4 DBLs, 3 HRs.

He is currently hitting .366 with 15 jhits in 41 ABs, 9 RBIs, 6 BBs, 10 Ks, 2 SB, 1 CS, .440 OBP, .683 Slg, 1123 OPS.

Fo starters. Great user name.

Secondly, sky's the limit for Acuna. This is a mvp type of player. So excited for 2018.

[Enscheff]

Braves currently have 3 of the Top 4 in OPS (Riley, AJax, Acuna, and David Bote).

The Top 4 in the previous 5 years...

2016: Gleyber Torres, Zach Vincej, Cody Bellinger, Brandon Dixon

2015: Adam Engel, Jacob Scavuzzo, Aldemys Diaz, Gary Sanchez

2014: Jesse Winker, Greg Bird, Hunter Renfroe, Peter O'Brien

2013: Kris Bryant, C.J. Cron, Travis Shaw, Jared Mitchell

2012: Nate Roberts, Slade Heathcott, Josh Prince, George Springer

For every Springer or Bryant, there are 2-3 Shaws and Dixons. I'm going to go ahead and guess that Acuna will be the stud, and the other guys will be mentioned in a post just like this 5 years from now.

[Chico]

Braves currently have 3 of the Top 4 in OPS (Riley, AJax, Acuna, and David Bote).

The Top 4 in the previous 5 years...

2016: Gleyber Torres, Zach Vincej, Cody Bellinger, Brandon Dixon

2015: Adam Engel, Jacob Scavuzzo, Aldemys Diaz, Gary Sanchez

2014: Jesse Winker, Greg Bird, Hunter Renfroe, Peter O'Brien

2013: Kris Bryant, C.J. Cron, Travis Shaw, Jared Mitchell

2012: Nate Roberts, Slade Heathcott, Josh Prince, George Springer

For every Springer or Bryant, there are 2-3 Shaws and Dixons. I'm going to go ahead and guess that Acuna will be the stud, and the other guys will be mentioned in a post just like this 5 years from now.

I know you're trying to make some point here, but outside of Cron and Shaw those other non stars were 23/24 year old minor league fodder and not 20/21 year old prospects.

[thethe]

I know you're trying to make some point here, but outside of Cron and Shaw those other non stars were 23/24 year old minor league fodder and not 20/21 year old prospects.

It's correlation and not causation.

[50PoundHead]

Braves currently have 3 of the Top 4 in OPS (Riley, AJax, Acuna, and David Bote).

The Top 4 in the previous 5 years...

2016: Gleyber Torres, Zach Vincej, Cody Bellinger, Brandon Dixon

2015: Adam Engel, Jacob Scavuzzo, Aldemys Diaz, Gary Sanchez

2014: Jesse Winker, Greg Bird, Hunter Renfroe, Peter O'Brien

2013: Kris Bryant, C.J. Cron, Travis Shaw, Jared Mitchell

2012: Nate Roberts, Slade Heathcott, Josh Prince, George Springer

For every Springer or Bryant, there are 2-3 Shaws and Dixons. I'm going to go ahead and guess that Acuna will be the stud, and the other guys will be mentioned in a post just like this 5 years from now.

I agree that the AFL doesn't provide much in terms of predictive value, but if A. Jackson could do a reasonable imitation of someone like Hunter Renfroe and Riley be a RHH version of Greg Bird, all would not be lost. I'm good at managing expectations. Jackson and Riley are both young with some things they obviously need to clean up in their games.

[thethe]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/arizona-fall-league-hot-sheet-oct-30-2017/#Fixfk4CBTCGVdVWI.97

Loaded

[msstate7]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/arizona-fall-league-hot-sheet-oct-30-2017/#Fixfk4CBTCGVdVWI.97

Loaded
AFL is a hitter’s league when fried leads in whip with 6.63

Lol

[Enscheff]

AFL is a hitter’s league when fried leads in whip with 6.63

Lol

"Thus far, the Fall League has been dominated by Braves."

[50PoundHead]

AFL is a hitter’s league when fried leads in whip with 6.63

Lol

He must have one helluva pick-off move to keep all those baserunners from scoring.

[msstate7]

"Thus far, the Fall League has been dominated by Braves."

Soon to be every league dominated by the Braves. When acuna and gohara puts up 7 war, fried and Wentz at 5 war, and Riley and Albies at 6 war, no one will stand a chance

[bravesfanMatt]

He must have one helluva pick-off move to keep all those baserunners from scoring.

Wait are you suggesting 6.63 guys on base per inning is bad?

[Super]

Alex Jackson really slacking at 8 while our other guys are 1-2-3.

[Enscheff]

I know you're trying to make some point here, but outside of Cron and Shaw those other non stars were 23/24 year old minor league fodder and not 20/21 year old prospects.

Fried is 23. I guess that means his performance can be discredited too? Or is he different because...reasons?

[Bravesfannchar]

Fried is 23. I guess that means his performance can be discredited too? Or is he different because...reasons?

To be fair, Fried missed all of 2015 and only pitched in 5 games of 2014. That’s practically two, big developmental years in his 20-21yo seasons lost. I know nothing about everyone else’s situation on the list..

[rico43]

Help me keep my eyes open (I know, straight line if ever there was one), but Jackson left Monday's game after being HBP. Don't know injury..

[Enscheff]

For those pinning hopes on the reports about Fried's pumped up velocity in the AFL:

http://mlbfarm.com/afl_pitchfx.php

93.5 is almost exactly what we were seeing in his MLB innings.

[Deester11]

For those pinning hopes on the reports about Fried's pumped up velocity in the AFL:

http://mlbfarm.com/afl_pitchfx.php

93.5 is almost exactly what we were seeing in his MLB innings. I said this exact same thing. Nice

[msstate7]

For those pinning hopes on the reports about Fried's pumped up velocity in the AFL:

http://mlbfarm.com/afl_pitchfx.php

93.5 is almost exactly what we were seeing in his MLB innings.

Spin rate is the only one on that list over 3000 and he’s over 3100. Yay, we can be happy again

[Enscheff]

Spin rate is the only one on that list over 3000 and he’s over 3100. Yay, we can be happy again

You may want to recheck the table, hero.

Fried has a terrible spin rate, which leads to terrible rise on his FA, which causes it to play worse than his average velocity suggests it should.

I bet Fried could throw a nasty sinker

[msstate7]

You may want to recheck the table, hero.

Fried has a terrible spin rate, which leads to terrible rise on his FA, which causes it to play worse than his average velocity indicates.

I bet Fried could throw a nasty sinker

Lol... he’s right below the best spin rate guy so that counts for something

[bravesfanMatt]

The data is interesting. I have the 150 pitches on a spreadsheet. Immediately noticed about 9 pitches that were marked as FF and clocked at 85ish. Same as his change.

[thethe]

Acuna/Riley go back to back.

[Enscheff]

The data is interesting. I have the 150 pitches on a spreadsheet. Immediately noticed about 9 pitches that were marked as FF and clocked at 85ish. Same as his change.

Remove them. His FF is now 93.7?

[bravesfanMatt]

Remove them. His FF is now 93.7?

Here is a list of all his FF and the speed and how many times he hit that speed.

85.3 MPH 2
85.4 MPH 1
85.5 MPH 1
85.6 MPH 1
85.8 MPH 1
85.9 MPH 1
86.1 MPH 1
86.3 MPH 1
86.5 MPH 1
91.5 MPH 1
92.0 MPH 1
92.1 MPH 1
92.2 MPH 1
92.3 MPH 1
92.4 MPH 1
92.5 MPH 2
92.6 MPH 1
92.7 MPH 1
92.8 MPH 4
93.0 MPH 3
93.1 MPH 4
93.2 MPH 3
93.3 MPH 1
93.5 MPH 3
93.6 MPH 2
93.7 MPH 2
93.8 MPH 1
94.0 MPH 3
94.1 MPH 6
94.2 MPH 2
94.3 MPH 4
94.4 MPH 2
94.5 MPH 1
94.7 MPH 1
94.8 MPH 3
94.9 MPH 4
95.1 MPH 1
95.2 MPH 2
95.3 MPH 3
95.4 MPH 1
95.5 MPH 3
95.6 MPH 5
95.7 MPH 2
95.8 MPH 3
96.2 MPH 2
96.3 MPH 2
96.4 MPH 2
97.1 MPH 2
97.5 MPH 1
97.6 MPH 1


That is 99 pitches. If you throw out his 10 pitches that were in the mid 80's (safely assuming they were not FF or speed recorded inaccurately) That leaves 89 FF that averaged 94.4. He threw in the 93's 19 times, 94's 26 times, 95's 20 times. I don't have the counts on my sheet, but I did notice several of his 92's and 93's were in hitter counts (2-0, 2-1)..

I would not say he is a 96 pitcher, but would say he is comfortably hitting 94 -95 in Arizona.

[Southcack77]

I agree that the AFL doesn't provide much in terms of predictive value, but if A. Jackson could do a reasonable imitation of someone like Hunter Renfroe and Riley be a RHH version of Greg Bird, all would not be lost. I'm good at managing expectations. Jackson and Riley are both young with some things they obviously need to clean up in their games.

I don’t know. It seems pretty bad that our prospects are doing well in a prospect league.

[Super]

I don’t know. It seems pretty bad that our prospects are doing well in a prospect league.

Agreed. And the incompetent FO is just leaving them there, dominating, like idiots. Unreal.

[msstate7]

Here is a list of all his FF and the speed and how many times he hit that speed.

85.3 MPH 2
85.4 MPH 1
85.5 MPH 1
85.6 MPH 1
85.8 MPH 1
85.9 MPH 1
86.1 MPH 1
86.3 MPH 1
86.5 MPH 1
91.5 MPH 1
92.0 MPH 1
92.1 MPH 1
92.2 MPH 1
92.3 MPH 1
92.4 MPH 1
92.5 MPH 2
92.6 MPH 1
92.7 MPH 1
92.8 MPH 4
93.0 MPH 3
93.1 MPH 4
93.2 MPH 3
93.3 MPH 1
93.5 MPH 3
93.6 MPH 2
93.7 MPH 2
93.8 MPH 1
94.0 MPH 3
94.1 MPH 6
94.2 MPH 2
94.3 MPH 4
94.4 MPH 2
94.5 MPH 1
94.7 MPH 1
94.8 MPH 3
94.9 MPH 4
95.1 MPH 1
95.2 MPH 2
95.3 MPH 3
95.4 MPH 1
95.5 MPH 3
95.6 MPH 5
95.7 MPH 2
95.8 MPH 3
96.2 MPH 2
96.3 MPH 2
96.4 MPH 2
97.1 MPH 2
97.5 MPH 1
97.6 MPH 1


That is 99 pitches. If you throw out his 10 pitches that were in the mid 80's (safely assuming they were not FF or speed recorded inaccurately) That leaves 89 FF that averaged 94.4. He threw in the 93's 19 times, 94's 26 times, 95's 20 times. I don't have the counts on my sheet, but I did notice several of his 92's and 93's were in hitter counts (2-0, 2-1)..

I would not say he is a 96 pitcher, but would say he is comfortably hitting 94 -95 in Arizona.

Such a pozzie... if you can’t see those mid-to-upper 80s were the best fried had then you’re just another dumb southerner.

[clvclv]

Acuna, Riley, and Touki named to Fall-Stars roster. Guessing Fried left off because he's close to IP limit. No clue why A-Jax isn't on it.

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/arizona-fall-league-announces-fall-stars-game-rosters/c-260126738

[Enscheff]

Here is a list of all his FF and the speed and how many times he hit that speed.

85.3 MPH 2
85.4 MPH 1
85.5 MPH 1
85.6 MPH 1
85.8 MPH 1
85.9 MPH 1
86.1 MPH 1
86.3 MPH 1
86.5 MPH 1
91.5 MPH 1
92.0 MPH 1
92.1 MPH 1
92.2 MPH 1
92.3 MPH 1
92.4 MPH 1
92.5 MPH 2
92.6 MPH 1
92.7 MPH 1
92.8 MPH 4
93.0 MPH 3
93.1 MPH 4
93.2 MPH 3
93.3 MPH 1
93.5 MPH 3
93.6 MPH 2
93.7 MPH 2
93.8 MPH 1
94.0 MPH 3
94.1 MPH 6
94.2 MPH 2
94.3 MPH 4
94.4 MPH 2
94.5 MPH 1
94.7 MPH 1
94.8 MPH 3
94.9 MPH 4
95.1 MPH 1
95.2 MPH 2
95.3 MPH 3
95.4 MPH 1
95.5 MPH 3
95.6 MPH 5
95.7 MPH 2
95.8 MPH 3
96.2 MPH 2
96.3 MPH 2
96.4 MPH 2
97.1 MPH 2
97.5 MPH 1
97.6 MPH 1


That is 99 pitches. If you throw out his 10 pitches that were in the mid 80's (safely assuming they were not FF or speed recorded inaccurately) That leaves 89 FF that averaged 94.4. He threw in the 93's 19 times, 94's 26 times, 95's 20 times. I don't have the counts on my sheet, but I did notice several of his 92's and 93's were in hitter counts (2-0, 2-1)..

I would not say he is a 96 pitcher, but would say he is comfortably hitting 94 -95 in Arizona.

So we are going to assume that the pitches at 85-87 were errors, and none of the higher velocity ones were errors?

Seems...pozzy.

[bravesfanMatt]

So we are going to assume that the pitches at 85-87 were errors, and none of the higher velocity ones were errors?

Seems...pozzy.

No, I assume that a guy who throws a change up harder than those FF speeds is not throwing a FF that slow. I personally think this was data entry error or the pitch was a change that didn't drop much so it was mistaken for a FF. But if you want to think a guy is throwing a fastball at 85 and 86, but not 87,88,89, or 90.. all the while throwing Changes at 83- 86, then go for it. I am not personally.

[BeanieAntics]

Yesterday:

Acuna 0-4 with 2 Ks

Riley 2-4 with 2 2bs and a run scored

[Tapate50]

No, I assume that a guy who throws a change up harder than those FF speeds is not throwing a FF that slow. I personally think this was data entry error or the pitch was a change that didn't drop much so it was mistaken for a FF. But if you want to think a guy is throwing a fastball at 85 and 86, but not 87,88,89, or 90.. all the while throwing Changes at 83- 86, then go for it. I am not personally.

Seems .... logical

[Enscheff]

No, I assume that a guy who throws a change up harder than those FF speeds is not throwing a FF that slow. I personally think this was data entry error or the pitch was a change that didn't drop much so it was mistaken for a FF. But if you want to think a guy is throwing a fastball at 85 and 86, but not 87,88,89, or 90.. all the while throwing Changes at 83- 86, then go for it. I am not personally.

I'm mostly just giving you ****.

Fried's velocity ticking up 1 MPH isn't going to fix the problem with his FA though.

[msstate7]

Yesterday:

Acuna 0-4 with 2 Ks

Riley 2-4 with 2 2bs and a run scored

Riley is killing it. He now leads the league with 1.235 ops

[bravesfanMatt]

I'm mostly just giving you ****.

Fried's velocity ticking up 1 MPH isn't going to fix the problem with his FA though.

I agree. I also think ticking up could be the dryer air out west. It is hot in ATL.. but humidity is a bitch.

[clvclv]

Riley is killing it. He now leads the league with 1.235 ops

A complete mirage. Has to be.

[TheBravos]

Riley has consistently improved each year as people keep writing him off and has up’d his game with each level of competition. He is barely older than Acuna. To me this is how you want a prospect to progress....gradual steady growth, while not to grow too fast in order to get enough Minor league time in. I’m not sure what else you could realistically ask from a 20 year old not named Acuna??

[Enscheff]

Nov 3:

Fried 4 IP, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

Acuna 1-4 HR
Riley 0-4 2K
Jackson 0-4

Jackson is slumping and down to 12th in OPS.

Riley leading the AFL in OPS despite 12 Ks in 46 ABs due to a BABIP of .367.

Acuna is still rocking a .400 BABIP.

[msstate7]

Nov 3:

Fried 4 IP, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

Acuna 1-4 HR
Riley 0-4 2K
Jackson 0-4

Jackson is slumping and down to 12th in OPS.

Riley leading the AFL in OPS despite 12 Ks in 46 ABs due to a BABIP of .367.

Acuna is still rocking a .400 BABIP.

With acuna being a speedster, what’s a reasonable babip for him in milb? Obviously Riley’s is high

[Enscheff]

With acuna being a speedster, what’s a reasonable babip for him in milb? Obviously Riley’s is high

Maintaining a high BABIP has more to do with the quality of contact a hitter makes than their speed.

Here's a list of the highest BABIP sustained over the last 3 seasons by qualified hitters:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=2&season=2017&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d

.340-.350 is probably the highest we could reasonably expect.

[Enscheff]

Acuna did not look good vs off speed stuff in his 2nd AB.

Holy crap Naylor is a lunch box.

Sandy Alcantrera is legit. 99-100 in the fastball (tv gun) and a nice looking change at 89-91. Command of the slider needs work.

[Enscheff]

LHer Scott sitting 97-98 but looks to be overthrowing and losing pitches up and away arm side.

[Enscheff]

I'm certainly not qualified to judge bat speed, but Riley did not look overmatched at all by 97 velocity.

[msstate7]

I'm certainly not qualified to judge bat speed, but Riley did not look overmatched at all by 97 velocity.

What was the result?

[Enscheff]

What was the result?

He walked. The pitcher was all over the place. He fouled off the 1 hittable pitch he got, but he was right on it.

Acuna again looked bad on a slider. I have a feeling we will see a lot of that next year. A lot of people are going to immediately compare him to Andruw.

[Enscheff]

Touki sitting 95-96 with the fastball and was a bit scatter shot. Only threw 1 curve at 80. It didn't look as amazing as I hoped, but it was only 1 pitch.

[msstate7]

Touki sitting 95-96 with the fastball and was a bit scatter shot. Only threw 1 curve at 80. It didn't look as amazing as I hoped, but it was only 1 pitch.

How you watching?

[Enscheff]

How you watching?

https://www.mlb.com/video/afl-fall-stars-mlbn-simulcast/c-1866040883?tid=7417714

[Enscheff]

Touki only pitched 1 inning again. I have to think this is an audition for a BP role.

Riley struck out on a bunch of loopy curves from a LHer. No indication about bat speed in that AB.

[Enscheff]

Alcantara of the Cards was by far the most impressive arm I saw in this game.

[rico43]

I'm certainly not qualified to judge bat speed, but Riley did not look overmatched at all by 97 velocity.

Seems like it's starting to be clear that Riley could be a helluva draft pick.

[rico43]

I'm certainly not qualified to judge bat speed, but Riley did not look overmatched at all by 97 velocity.

Seems like it's starting to be clear that Riley could be a helluva draft pick.

[KB21]

This idea that Riley lacks bat speed is a myth that has been perpetuated by Keith Law, and he will not let go of the fact that he is dead wrong about Austin Riley. His actions at 3B are better than most people felt, and he has a rifle for an arm. This is a big time power prospect who has a future in the middle of the Braves batting order.

[brian22]

Did he ever admit to being wrong about Freeman?

[BeanieAntics]

I'm really starting to come around on Riley's bat. I think it has a chance to be pretty good. Still highly skeptical of him being an average MLB 3rd baseman though. He just didn't look like he could handle it in the couple games I saw with Mississippi

[thethe]

Seems like it's starting to be clear that Riley could be a helluva draft pick.

It's a shame that the front office had so much dysfunction. They've built an incredible stable of your talent. I hope the next regime is able to do the same

[nsacpi]

It's a shame that the front office had so much dysfunction. They've built an incredible stable of your talent. I hope the next regime is able to do the same

it would be better if the next regime could sign more prospects like Albies and Acuna at similar prices

[thethe]

it would be better if the next regime could sign more prospects like Albies and Acuna at similar prices

Going back to well on this one.

[Deester11]

I'm really starting to come around on Riley's bat. I think it has a chance to be pretty good. Still highly skeptical of him being an average MLB 3rd baseman though. He just didn't look like he could handle it in the couple games I saw with Mississippi
I have the opposite view but it depends on when you see him. He better at coming in on the ball and handled some shots flawlessly when I saw him. I'm not expecting Brooks Robinson but I think Riley will be serviceable.

[clvclv]

Did he ever admit to being wrong about Freeman?

No - and he'll never admit to being wrong about anyone else either - particularly since he seems to be the only person (other than our own blackjack dealer) who's unwilling to allow that he's improving.

Like I said earlier, I just don't like Law because he tries to make everything about him rather than the prospects, and he's always the last to come off his original rankings and thoughts about a player (good or bad) even when many others are willing to.

[Enscheff]

This idea that Riley lacks bat speed is a myth that has been perpetuated by Keith Law, and he will not let go of the fact that he is dead wrong about Austin Riley. His actions at 3B are better than most people felt, and he has a rifle for an arm. This is a big time power prospect who has a future in the middle of the Braves batting order.

A lot of people confuse a slow bat with a long swing. A guy can't hit a ball 400' without generating a lot of bat speed, but a guy can have a long swing like Frenchy did and cause him lots of issues.

I couldn't see anything wrong with Rileys swing, but he only swung at 1 fastball and a bunch of loopy curves. He does look noticeably more fit, and that is not a trivial thing.

I consider Longenhagen the premier prospect guy in the public sphere. He sees more talent live in a single day than the other prospect writers see in a month. He is around more scouts on a daily basis than any other writer on the planet. He says Riley's bat speed is fine, but he is going to have to play 1B which will put too much pressure on the bat and the package won't play for a contender.

BA is getting this crazy idea that Riley is good defensively somewhere, so I would trade Riley to the team that values him as a plus defensive 3b.

[rico43]

A lot of people confuse a slow bat with a long swing. A guy can't hit a ball 400' without generating a lot of bat speed, but a guy can have a long swing like Frenchy did and cause him lots of issues.

I couldn't see anything wrong with Rileys swing, but he only swung at 1 fastball and a bunch of loopy curves. He does look noticeably more fit, and that is not a trivial thing.

I consider Longenhagen the premier prospect guy in the public sphere. He sees more talent live in a single day than the other prospect writers see in a month. He is around more scouts on a daily basis than any other writer on the planet. He says Riley's bat speed is fine, but he is going to have to play 1B which will put too much pressure on the bat and the package won't play for a contender.

BA is getting this crazy idea that Riley is good defensively somewhere, so I would trade Riley to the team that values him as a plus defensive 3b.

If it turns out that Maitan is our third baseman of the future, then this is the common sense move.

[Enscheff]

Notes from BP: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/34778/notes-field-arizona-fall-league-november-7th-austin-riley-adbert-alzolay-prospect/


Austin Riley, 3B, Peoria Javelinas (Atlanta Braves)
Looking at Riley’s listed 6-foot-3, 220-pound frame I was skeptical he could last at third base. But that viewpoint changed Thursday when he moved well enough laterally to make it at the position as a future fringe-average defender. It’s a bat-first profile so that’s enough for me. It’s a quite important developmental step for very obvious positional-value reasons. I’ve seen inconsistent at-bats from him (and pretty much everyone), showing patience and feel to hit some ABs, the opposite in others. The bat speed, strength, and barrel feel all bode well, but there is some length to the swing that leaves him vulnerable to plus gas. It’s a positive first impression.

Max Fried (ATL) had his worst outing of the fall, losing his mechanical consistency, missing his spots, and battling without his best stuff. He’s been among the top five SP arms in the AFL. Those that like him see a no. 3 SP; others more a back-ender.

As I suspected, the issues with Riley's bat are probably due to swing length, not bat speed. KLaw is a complete dope, so I'm not surprised he confuses them and therefore is down on Riley. Unfortunately, being "vulnerable to plus gas" is not a good sign when fastball velocity at the MLB level continues to rise.

Count me as one of the guys who see Fried as a back-ender or BP arm if he doesn't alter his fastball.


Fried's FA verges on unusable due to a very low spin rate that results in a horribly flat pitch. I would like to see him switch to a SI instead, which I think could be an above average pitch. As is, he is a junk-baller #5 or swing-man if his control stays below average. If he picks up a grade 55 SI and refines his command to average, he can be a legit #3.