Discussion of Braves 2018 Offseason plans

[Horsehide Harry]

I think it's safe to say that the "rebuild" wasn't going to plan even before Coppygate. Some things have worked out well - the ascendance of Acuna, the good play of Albies, the emergence of Freeman as a yearly star candidate, the good play of Inciarte after the supposed "fleecing" of Arizona in the Miller trade, etc. But for every thing that has gone right there has been something that has gone wrong, some terribly wrong - the HO trade, the Simmons trade (not Newk necessarily but the lack of a better return for a player of Simmons' capability), the Markakis signing (not that he's been terrible per se but that the reasoning behind signing him was never good), the compounding of the HO error by bringing in Kemp, the rush to try to be competitive therefore missing opportunities to get better long term at the expense of short term, the faceplant of many pitching prospects and the delayed arrival of others, etc. then you have Coppygate.

So, if you stand back and look at the full tapestry then the Braves actions only make sense IF they planned to significantly increase payroll in 2018 and 2019 by adding necessary FA to fill holes to make the team good. If they never had that in the plans then the whole actions of the rebuild really make no sense.

Well, now we are where we are with 2017 falling, apparently, below revenue expectations with rumblings from the FO that payroll would not increase but potentially decrease between 2017 and 2018, even before Coppygate broke. Which calls further into question the wisdom of any of the win-now moves made along the way the last three years.

And, now we come to Coppygate. It's apparent Coppy and his minions got caught misbehaving. And I, like many, believe that he was headed for the door before this convenient excuse presented itself. But, you have to question how much of what he did, whatever that is, was a direct result of the strategy mandated by the upper FO to "reload" instead of "rebuild" but from a starting point of a poor minor league system and limited money both short term and long term. In other words, could the Braves get to the desired location, given assets short and long term, without breaking the rules along the way?

So now, where does it all go? Coppygate provides a built in excuse for failure - "things were going well before Coppy went off the reservation." And it looks like the Braves want to hire a "baseball guy" to run the FO, not a "rebuild guy." So, the rebuild is over apparently. But, should it be? If you look at this team and accept that the budget isn't going to grow anytime soon, can this team not only become competitive but stay competitive for a window of opportunity?

As they say, anything's possible. But the Braves are now in the realm of relying very heavily on the arrival of good luck - they get an ace or two from their current pitching crop (instead of good serviceable ML arms), Acuna plays at All-Star levels very quickly, the new FO makes all the right moves and keeps the good ones while getting others to take the bad ones... Good Luck is always a factor. But, the amount that you have to rely on good luck is a very big part of the success equation.

[nsacpi]

Has a small or mid-market team ever "rebuilt" in less than five years?

From 2010 to 2015 Houston drafted #8, #11, #1, #1, #1, #5

During the same period, Cleveland drafted #5, #8, #15, #5, #21, #17

I think these two teams offer a fair benchmark.

We have been drafting high since 2015, with the #14, #3 and #5 picks the past three years, and #8 next year.

We are unlikely to make the playoffs in 2018 and probably won't in 2019. Maybe 2020. So pretty close to the Houston and Cleveland pattern. Which to me is somewhat disappointing. I thought we had a super-smart front office that could do better than other teams like Houston and Cleveland. Coppy was whip-smart and had those two great mentors to help him out. And with Wren gone, all those super-scouts from the glory years had flocked back for the second golden age of the Braves Way.

More seriously, we had some highly sought after talent that we peddled away at the start of the rebuild. It seems fair to take that into account and say we should have been able to compress the rebuild relative to teams that did not have that kind of talent to jump start things. But we have the #1 farm system. That counts for something.

[nsacpi]

In terms of competitive window, Houston has made the playoffs two of the past three years and looks like they have at least a couple more years ahead. Possibly quite a bit more than two if they manage things well and have some luck. Cleveland looks to be in a similar situation. So both of those teams have been able to achieve a competitive window of at least 5 years, possibly quite a bit longer.

I actually think the Braves will follow a somewhat similar pattern. But maybe not to the extent of having a 100 plus win team in the middle of that window. I think we'll have a 5-10 year run of teams that are mostly in the 85-95 win range. Starting in 2020 (give or take a year). And there might be a couple years where we are outside that range (maybe one year to the low side and one year to the high side).

Btw I think the above scenario has been what some of the more sober-minded posters have had in mind from the very start of the rebuild. There have been some extreme optimists. But its a bit of a red herring to hold up their views as representative.

Also the front office has done a fair amount of spinning suggesting a more compressed time frame for the rebuild. But that's part of their job, maybe more so than usual because of the new stadium. Its hard to say how much of it they really believed.

[Enscheff]

In terms of competitive window, Houston has made the playoffs two of the past three years and looks like they have at least a couple more years ahead. Possibly quite a bit more than two if they manage things well and have some luck. Cleveland looks to be in a similar situation. So both of those teams have been able to achieve a competitive window of at least 5 years, possibly quite a bit longer.

I actually think the Braves will follow a somewhat similar pattern. But maybe not to the extent of having a 100 plus win team in the middle of that window. I think we'll have a 5-10 year run of teams that are mostly in the 85-95 win range. Starting in 2020 (give or take a year). And there might be a couple years where we are outside that range (maybe one year to the low side and one year to the high side).

Btw I think the above scenario has been what some of the more sober-minded posters have had in mind from the very start of the rebuild. There have been some extreme optimists. But its a bit of a red herring to hold up their views as representative.

Also the front office has done a fair amount of spinning suggesting a more compressed time frame for the rebuild. But that's part of their job, maybe more so than usual because of the new stadium. Its hard to say how much of it they really believed.

I think all of the hoopla about being competitive in 2017 was 100% part of the plan. The team was already routinely drawing 2.5 million to Turner, and they decided to move to the center of their fan base to increase attendance and revenue. A typical attendance boost from a new stadium is ~25%, so all projections were likely done assuming the Braves attendance would increase to ~3 million. We were told this new revenue would allow a Top 10 payroll, and we saw them increase payroll to $125M for 2017.

The rebuild was embarked upon AFTER the new stadium details were finalized, and there is no way a rebuild would have been allowed if the FO didn't make assurances that the team would be competitive in time to draw the projected 3 million fans. We saw every single deal they made during the rebuild have at least some portion of it geared towards 2017. All deals either freed up money for 2017, or had players included that could contribute by 2017. Players who weren't dealt (Freeman and Teheran) were kept explicitly to produce in 2017.

Problem is they sucked in 2017. Attendance came nowhere near the projected 3 million. There is no chance payroll is going up until attendance increases, and it is most likely going down before it goes up.

[clvclv]

Trade for Stanton and call it a winter.

Can probably get him for Fried, Allard, and Kemp.

[Enscheff]

Trade for Stanton and call it a winter.

Can probably get him for Fried, Allard, and Kemp.

Again, you have no idea what you're talking about.

The Marlins will not be taking a bad contract back when trading Stanton.

[clvclv]

I think it's safe to say that the "rebuild" wasn't going to plan even before Coppygate. Some things have worked out well - the ascendance of Acuna, the good play of Albies, the emergence of Freeman as a yearly star candidate, the good play of Inciarte after the supposed "fleecing" of Arizona in the Miller trade, etc. But for every thing that has gone right there has been something that has gone wrong, some terribly wrong - the HO trade, the Simmons trade (not Newk necessarily but the lack of a better return for a player of Simmons' capability), the Markakis signing (not that he's been terrible per se but that the reasoning behind signing him was never good), the compounding of the HO error by bringing in Kemp, the rush to try to be competitive therefore missing opportunities to get better long term at the expense of short term, the faceplant of many pitching prospects and the delayed arrival of others, etc. then you have Coppygate.

So, if you stand back and look at the full tapestry then the Braves actions only make sense IF they planned to significantly increase payroll in 2018 and 2019 by adding necessary FA to fill holes to make the team good. If they never had that in the plans then the whole actions of the rebuild really make no sense.

Well, now we are where we are with 2017 falling, apparently, below revenue expectations with rumblings from the FO that payroll would not increase but potentially decrease between 2017 and 2018, even before Coppygate broke. Which calls further into question the wisdom of any of the win-now moves made along the way the last three years.

And, now we come to Coppygate. It's apparent Coppy and his minions got caught misbehaving. And I, like many, believe that he was headed for the door before this convenient excuse presented itself. But, you have to question how much of what he did, whatever that is, was a direct result of the strategy mandated by the upper FO to "reload" instead of "rebuild" but from a starting point of a poor minor league system and limited money both short term and long term. In other words, could the Braves get to the desired location, given assets short and long term, without breaking the rules along the way?

So now, where does it all go? Coppygate provides a built in excuse for failure - "things were going well before Coppy went off the reservation." And it looks like the Braves want to hire a "baseball guy" to run the FO, not a "rebuild guy." So, the rebuild is over apparently. But, should it be? If you look at this team and accept that the budget isn't going to grow anytime soon, can this team not only become competitive but stay competitive for a window of opportunity?

As they say, anything's possible. But the Braves are now in the realm of relying very heavily on the arrival of good luck - they get an ace or two from their current pitching crop (instead of good serviceable ML arms), Acuna plays at All-Star levels very quickly, the new FO makes all the right moves and keeps the good ones while getting others to take the bad ones... Good Luck is always a factor. But, the amount that you have to rely on good luck is a very big part of the success equation.


The love for Andrelton borders on the Heyward craziness - dude hit .272/.321/.385/.707 when he was here. He's a great defensive player, but if the Braves would've left well enough alone and the Miller trade wouldn't have been made, Albies would still wind up being a more valuable player at SS when their careers were done. Of course he would've been moved to 2B in deference to Simmons if those trades hadn't been made when he came up anyway and the Braves wouldn't have Newcomb OR Inciarte,

The "what ifs" will go on forever, and the chances are pretty good that the franchise still wouldn't be any better off - great defensive SSs don't do you much good when everybody's hitting balls in the gaps..

[clvclv]

Again, you have no idea what you're talking about.

The Marlins will not be taking a bad contract back when trading Stanton.


I'll only reply because I've been saying that for months, and Harry continues to believe otherwise. Of course, given your infatuation with me you knew that already since you seem to hang out here 23 hours a day to see what I have to say.

:facepalm:

[Horsehide Harry]

Has a small or mid-market team ever "rebuilt" in less than five years?

From 2010 to 2015 Houston drafted #8, #11, #1, #1, #1, #5

During the same period, Cleveland drafted #5, #8, #15, #5, #21, #17

I think these two teams offer a fair benchmark.

We have been drafting high since 2015, with the #14, #3 and #5 picks the past three years, and #8 next year.

We are unlikely to make the playoffs in 2018 and probably won't in 2019. Maybe 2020. So pretty close to the Houston and Cleveland pattern. Which to me is somewhat disappointing. I thought we had a super-smart front office that could do better than other teams like Houston and Cleveland. Coppy was whip-smart and had those two great mentors to help him out. And with Wren gone, all those super-scouts from the glory years had flocked back for the second golden age of the Braves Way.

More seriously, we had some highly sought after talent that we peddled away at the start of the rebuild. It seems fair to take that into account and say we should have been able to compress the rebuild relative to teams that did not have that kind of talent to jump start things. But we have the #1 farm system. That counts for something.

While I think the Braves should be shooting for similar results, I think you have to look a little below the surface of Houston and Cleveland. Take Houston for instance, before appearing in the playoffs in 2015, the Astros had not been to the playoffs since 2005. During that period of 10 years their best record was in 2008 where they finished 3rd in their division at 86-75. The only other above .500 finish they had was in 2006 at 82-80. So, while they have been officially rebuilding for 5 or so years before winning the WS, they've really been in a rebuilding mode for 10 years. Only After they committed to tanking in 2011 did they begin to pull out of the purgatory that they had fallen into. Now, this is one of the top 5 Metro markets in the Country and they have no other competitors close outside of the Rangers who are several hundred miles away. They operate as small to mid market club but that's derivative from ownership not opportunity.

Cleveland is different. They are a small market. And they never went all in, tank your way to success rebuild. Before making the playoffs in 2013, they had not been since 2007 and before that 2001. However, their records weren't totally horrible. Their worst year in 2009 the record was 65- 97. They mostly bounced around in the range of 65 wins up to 81 wins dating back to 2007 but before their playoff appearance in 2013. The one thing that Cleveland has working for it though is that they play in the traditionally very weak AL Central.

My guess is that the Braves hoped to travel the path of Cleveland instead of Houston but didn't account for the need of good luck and a better division.

[Horsehide Harry]

I'll only reply because I've been saying that for months, and Harry continues to believe otherwise. Of course, given your infatuation with me you knew that already since you seem to hang out here 23 hours a day to see what I have to say.

:facepalm:

You're like the media. You pick out parts of what was said and deliver it out of context then do a victory dance around the room slapping high fives with anyone who is willing to celebrate your brilliance. Problem is that it's getting harder for you to find a hand to slap. So, I guess you'll have to keep giving yourself a hand. It's a job that you're familiar with...

[Southcack77]

The Indians went five years between winning seasons and the middle three were in the 60s.

The Braves are not even going to consider trading for Stanton.

The Braves are three years into a rebuild. The biggest failure during the entire rebuild would seem to be the pending penalties from MLB which really could be a real problem.

For the most part, people are not patient enough to actually handle the realities of rebuilds. Five years is a long time. Most people can manage one.

I still don't see any particular reason why the Braves can't contend in the 2020s, which is when I thought their window would open. I also don't see much reason why under the right circumstances they might not be in the playoff chase in 2019 or even potentially 2018 (this requires a good bit of prospect luck).

[nsacpi]

I still don't see any particular reason why the Braves can't contend in the 2020s, which is when I thought their window would open. I also don't see much reason why under the right circumstances they might not be in the playoff chase in 2019 or even potentially 2018 (this requires a good bit of prospect luck).

We project to be about a .500 team in 2018, which I think calls for a fairly generic approach to the off-season. Try to put a decent product on the field. Patch up the obvious weaknesses. And above all focus on what I call the "value proposition." Which means don't do trades or free agent signings that don't project to yield good value relative to what we are paying. That might seem to be a case of stating the obvious. But for some teams under some circumstances it makes sense to overpay for a particular player. We are not there.

[nsacpi]

My guess is that the Braves hoped to travel the path of Cleveland instead of Houston but didn't account for the need of good luck and a better division.

Cleveland had to contend with Detroit, who were strong WS contenders for a long time, and the Royals, who made it to back-to-back WS.

Depending on what happens with the gnats after 2018, things could open up in the NL East. It looks like the Phillies rebuild is at about the same stage as ours. I think the Marlins are unlikely to contend anytime soon. Mets are hard to figure. A lot turns on the health of their pitching.

[Horsehide Harry]

Cleveland had to contend with Detroit, who were strong WS contenders for a long time, and the Royals, who made it to back-to-back WS.

Depending on what happens with the gnats after 2018, things could open up in the NL East. It looks like the Phillies rebuild is at about the same stage as ours. I think the Marlins are unlikely to contend anytime soon. Mets are hard to figure. A lot turns on the health of their pitching.

All true. However, I think the KC angle is that they were far into a 10+ year rebuild and finally aligned all the pieces for a short lived run. Essentially they built over 10 years to have a good 3-5 years where the high water mark was a WS and are now well past the crest and on their way back to obscurity. Dayton Moore would do well to get out if he can.

Detroit is a bit of a different animal. They spent like a large market team for a long time and few other teams in the division could compete until that team got old. They are now far into an age decline and the money is drying up. Clevelands window began to open with the age decline of Detroit but was stalled temporarily by the coincidental emergence of a short lived KC run.

Now Cleveland is fully into their window and may stay for a while, longer than should probably be the case, simply because 3/5 of their division are in the starting stages of a rebuild and the 4th, Minnesota, is at the end stage of a Braves style rebuild with no money and no staying power. It's a happy circumstance for them.

Houston is built for a longer period of excellence in a tougher division (generally) because they fully committed to the rebuild process.

[nsacpi]

Houston is built for a longer period of excellence in a tougher division (generally) because they fully committed to the rebuild process.

Houston imo also benefits from issues with the other teams in the division. The A's lack the financial resources and are in a down cycle. Seattle is just not a very well run franchise. The Angels have the Pujols contract plus a perennially weak farm system. Which leaves the Rangers as the only potential competitor the next few years, and they have yuge issues with starting pitching. I suspect the A's will be the Astros next real competitor in that division and that's several years off into the future. For the next couple years, the other teams might catch lightning in a bottle and nip at their heels, but we're talking one-offs here.

With respect to Kansas City and Dayton Moore. If you do a ratio of competitive years versus years in the wilderness and make an adjustment for financial resources, I think the track record in KC is fairly mediocre. Some of it predates Moore, but he's been there since 2006.

KC draft position over the years: #7 in 1997, #4 in 1998, #7 in 1999, #4 in 2000, #9 in 2001, #6 in 2002 (Zack Greinke), #5 in 2003, #14 in 2004, #2 in 2005, #1 in 2006, #2 in 2007, #3 in 2008, #12 in 2009, #4 in 2010, #5 in 2011, #6 in 2012, #8 in 2013

[Horsehide Harry]

The Indians went five years between winning seasons and the middle three were in the 60s.

The Braves are not even going to consider trading for Stanton.

The Braves are three years into a rebuild. The biggest failure during the entire rebuild would seem to be the pending penalties from MLB which really could be a real problem.

For the most part, people are not patient enough to actually handle the realities of rebuilds. Five years is a long time. Most people can manage one.

I still don't see any particular reason why the Braves can't contend in the 2020s, which is when I thought their window would open. I also don't see much reason why under the right circumstances they might not be in the playoff chase in 2019 or even potentially 2018 (this requires a good bit of prospect luck).

The Braves likely will (or would) have tried to trade for Stanton this offseason. If the payroll definitely shrinks, I can't really see any path to that. However, Hart and Company have shown that they are more interested in the business aspect of the rebuild than building itself by pushing up Swanson and others when it made no sense to do so while being so deep in a rebuild except as a way to put fans in the seats. The Braves, given a way to find the money, WILL try to make some kind of splash move this offseason (unless the whole Coppygate completely derails the rebuild) simply because they need to market their way to 3M fans in the seats. Most of those 3M fans will have no idea who Yandy Diaz is, nor care. However, they know who Stanton is; they know who Arrieta is; they know who Moustakas is, etc.

I've been on record from the beginning as saying the Braves should have been willing to take it down to ground level and build from bottom to top taking as long as needed to establish a franchise with a long window of opportunity where you could slowly ramp up the payroll as needed in the later stages of the rebuild once you know your holes. The Braves didn't go that way. They tied up payroll into useless complimentary pieces in effort to create the illusion of a short time away from winning. It didn't work.

Having said that, the Marlins are a wounded beast that some team will take advantage of. If they truly want to cut payroll to the levels that have been discussed publicly then they have a hell of a job ahead of them. I think everybody agrees, including me, that trading Stanton by himself should return quite a haul. Not a huge haul since he is owed so much over so long and forget the opt out, any acquiring club has to acquire him with the thought that he won't opt out.

The Marlins don't want to eat any of the contract. It remains to be seen if they can pull that off. He cleared waivers and could have been claimed by anyone in the middle of a pennant chase but wasn't which means to me that teams think they can get him without paying his full contract. Also, it means to me that teams don't think he will cost much prospect wise because of his contract. In other words they see Marlin blood in the water.

A smart team will be able to get Stanton at pennies on the dollar for what he would normally bring. You have to remember that this isn't Stanton in his second year with 4 years of control at a relatively small number. This is a guy who's signed for 11 more years at an AAV of about $29M. Ozuna will bring more prospect value in return and Yelich would bring quite a bit more.

The thing is, if the Marlins are to be believed, trading Stanton (assuming you find someone to take all his contract) is nowhere near enough. Prado is going to make $13.5M and $15M over the next two years but is coming off a lost year and will be 35. Volquez is owed $13M and out for 18 after Tommy John (maybe they had some insurance that helps here). Ozuna is set for what will likely be a historic arbitration. Dee Gordon is signed for 3 more years at about an AAV of $13M. Chen has likely the worst contract in baseball with no possibility of moving under any circumstances. Ziegler is owed $9M. Tazawa $7M.

Everyone wants to talk about Yelich, Realmuto, Dietriech, Bour, Straily, etc. Newsflash: those guys aren't the problem.

Do I want the Braves to trade for Stanton? No, obviously I wanted the Braves to go a different way. They didn't.

So, now I say, if you are going to use money to land a "name" player for the consumption of the fans, then do it the best way possible.

I suggested, back when it appeared that the Braves would have money, that the Braves be willing to do a huge deal with the Marlins, essentially fixing both teams problems in one move while obtaining Stanton plus. I think it could have been done at very little prospect cost to the Braves as long as they took on enough money.

It's all academic since with Coppygate, the expected stagnation and possible reduction in payroll, and the likelihood that Stanton will view the Braves as nowhere near being competitive and use his no-trade rights, I expect Stanton to end up with the LA Dodgers.

[Horsehide Harry]

Houston imo also benefits from issues with the other teams in the division. The A's lack the financial resources and are in a down cycle. Seattle is just not a very well run franchise. The Angels have the Pujols contract plus a perennially weak farm system. Which leaves the Rangers as the only potential competitor the next few years, and they have yuge issues with starting pitching. I suspect the A's will be the Astros next real competitor in that division and that's several years off into the future. For the next couple years, the other teams might catch lightning in a bottle and nip at their heels, but we're talking one-offs here.

With respect to Kansas City and Dayton Moore. If you do a ratio of competitive years versus years in the wilderness and make an adjustment for financial resources, I think the track record in KC is fairly mediocre. Some of it predates Moore, but he's been there since 2006.

KC draft position over the years: #7 in 1997, #4 in 1998, #7 in 1999, #4 in 2000, #9 in 2001, #6 in 2002 (Zack Greinke), #5 in 2003, #14 in 2004, #2 in 2005, #1 in 2006, #2 in 2007, #3 in 2008, #12 in 2009, #4 in 2010, #5 in 2011, #6 in 2012, #8 in 2013

True Houston does benefit some. However, both Seattle and LA, while poorly run, have been known to spend a lot of money (like Detroit). Their problem is leadership (or lack) not funding. Oakland is kinda the Tampa of the West, mostly run well, dangerous from time to time, but really just biding time until a new stadium deal comes along. Texas is generally a real threat but are on a down cycle after selling the farm to compete in recent years and bad signings/poor luck with guys such as Fielder.

As for KC, I completely agree. They really have underperformed for the most part considering the extended period of awfulness they have endured. I actually think they were hugely lucky in their recent playoff years to be in a Division where every other team kind of perfect stormed themselves into the gutter.

[nsacpi]

I think the Giants, Cards, gnats, and Red Sox will have interest in Stanton. Probably one of them will sign JD Martinez, which will leave the three others in competition for Stanton

[Enscheff]

I think the Giants, Cards, gnats, and Red Sox will have interest in Stanton. Probably one of them will sign JD Martinez, which will leave the three others in competition for Stanton

Throw the Dodgers into the Stanton mix too.

The Marlins are going to want someone who can immediately replace Stanton in the OF, and some pitching. In exchange they may be willing to eat a portion of the contract AFTER the opt out to help mitigate the risk of the contract becoming an albatross.

I have to think the Cards are the best fit. They can offer one of their young MLB OFers as well as a pitcher like Flaherty who is ready to contribute now. That kid Alcantara looked like a monster beast stud in the Fall Stars game.

I would put the Dodgers as the next most likely team to acquire Stanton.

[Horsehide Harry]

I think the Giants, Cards, gnats, and Red Sox will have interest in Stanton. Probably one of them will sign JD Martinez, which will leave the three others in competition for Stanton

Agree. I also think the Yankees will have interest. They would market along the lines of something like: the new twin towers or something. But, I don't think Jeter will be in any big hurry to do favors for the Red Sox, meaning they would have to clearly offer more than everyone else, and I don't think he wants to start out as being seen as the Yankees B*tch.

I wonder if Stanton wants to play with the Giants. If I were him, I wouldn't since the Park is bad for hitters and they obviously look close to an age related rebuild. They might spend their way out of it but have a ton of age.

The gNats make some sense but have traded a lot over the last several years. They might get it done if they take the whole contract. I guess you assume they punt on Harper. I did notice, looking at Cot's, that they are very creative on their contracts to their pitchers: Scherzer is apparently paid nothing in 19, 20, 21 with all his money to be paid in deferred installments of $15M per year from 22-28; and Strasbourg getting 15, 35, 25, 15, 15 then $45M in 2023! Other than those two contracts they aren't in horrible shape.

The Cards make some sense. But, I doubt they will be willing to take the whole contract.

I still think it will be the Dodgers and I think it will be big. Something like: Stanton, Straily and Ozuna to the Dodgers for Puig, Grandal, Pederson, Alex Verdugo and Yadier Alvarez. The M's then flip Grandal and Pederson and play Puig in RF. It would put the Dodgers in a short term bind on payroll but they would clean that up after 2018 when they get rid of Gonzalez, Kazmir, McCarthy, Ryu, and Forsythe (assuming is 18 option is picked up).

[Enscheff]

Agree. I also think the Yankees will have interest. They would market along the lines of something like: the new twin towers or something. But, I don't think Jeter will be in any big hurry to do favors for the Red Sox, meaning they would have to clearly offer more than everyone else, and I don't think he wants to start out as being seen as the Yankees B*tch.

I wonder if Stanton wants to play with the Giants. If I were him, I wouldn't since the Park is bad for hitters and they obviously look close to an age related rebuild. They might spend their way out of it but have a ton of age.

The gNats make some sense but have traded a lot over the last several years. They might get it done if they take the whole contract. I guess you assume they punt on Harper. I did notice, looking at Cot's, that they are very creative on their contracts to their pitchers: Scherzer is apparently paid nothing in 19, 20, 21 with all his money to be paid in deferred installments of $15M per year from 22-28; and Strasbourg getting 15, 35, 25, 15, 15 then $45M in 2023! Other than those two contracts they aren't in horrible shape.

The Cards make some sense. But, I doubt they will be willing to take the whole contract.

I still think it will be the Dodgers and I think it will be big. Something like: Stanton, Straily and Ozuna to the Dodgers for Puig, Grandal, Pederson, Alex Verdugo and Yadier Alvarez. The M's then flip Grandal and Pederson and play Puig in RF. It would put the Dodgers in a short term bind on payroll but they would clean that up after 2018 when they get rid of Gonzalez, Kazmir, McCarthy, Ryu, and Forsythe (assuming is 18 option is picked up).

LOL or more likely something centered around Stanton for Pederson plus cheap pitching.

[Horsehide Harry]

LOL or more likely something centered around Stanton for Pederson plus cheap pitching.

Maybe. But I think the Dodgers will use their financial capability to take advantage of the Marlins predicament.

[nsacpi]

Maybe. But I think the Dodgers will use their financial capability to take advantage of the Marlins predicament.

I think there is enough of a market for Stanton to prevent something like that from happening...there should be two or three serious bidders

[Horsehide Harry]

I think there is enough of a market for Stanton to prevent something like that from happening...there should be two or three serious bidders

I think the market will determine the degree. I don't think there is any question that the M's won't get full talent value unless they are willing to eat a bunch of money and they can't.

[Southcack77]

We project to be about a .500 team in 2018, which I think calls for a fairly generic approach to the off-season. Try to put a decent product on the field. Patch up the obvious weaknesses. And above all focus on what I call the "value proposition." Which means don't do trades or free agent signings that don't project to yield good value relative to what we are paying. That might seem to be a case of stating the obvious. But for some teams under some circumstances it makes sense to overpay for a particular player. We are not there.

Totally agree. Don't tie up any payroll beyond 2019. Make some value plays. Try to get lucky.

[Horsehide Harry]

Totally agree. Don't tie up any payroll beyond 2019. Make some value plays. Try to get lucky.

That's probably the smart play.

But, it pushes the front of the window back in time and because of missteps, mismanagement, missed opportunity and now Coppygate the back of the window is coming forward in time.

[ixiXSolidXixi]

Trevor Rosenthal any one? 27 years old.

[Enscheff]

Trevor Rosenthal any one? 27 years old.

He just had TJ this August, so won't be pitching until the end of 2018.

He would be a guy the Braves could sign to a cheap deal in 2018 with an option for 2019 though.

[NYCBrave]

While I think the Braves should be shooting for similar results, I think you have to look a little below the surface of Houston and Cleveland. Take Houston for instance, before appearing in the playoffs in 2015, the Astros had not been to the playoffs since 2005. During that period of 10 years their best record was in 2008 where they finished 3rd in their division at 86-75. The only other above .500 finish they had was in 2006 at 82-80. So, while they have been officially rebuilding for 5 or so years before winning the WS, they've really been in a rebuilding mode for 10 years. Only After they committed to tanking in 2011 did they begin to pull out of the purgatory that they had fallen into. Now, this is one of the top 5 Metro markets in the Country and they have no other competitors close outside of the Rangers who are several hundred miles away. They operate as small to mid market club but that's derivative from ownership not opportunity.

Cleveland is different. They are a small market. And they never went all in, tank your way to success rebuild. Before making the playoffs in 2013, they had not been since 2007 and before that 2001. However, their records weren't totally horrible. Their worst year in 2009 the record was 65- 97. They mostly bounced around in the range of 65 wins up to 81 wins dating back to 2007 but before their playoff appearance in 2013. The one thing that Cleveland has working for it though is that they play in the traditionally very weak AL Central.

My guess is that the Braves hoped to travel the path of Cleveland instead of Houston but didn't account for the need of good luck and a better division.

The thing people have to realize is, even with all of the tanking, it still took a lot of luck for Houston to have this team. Sure, Correa and Springer and Bregman were top picks. But they also had some bad top picks. Altuve was never expected to be a perennial MVP candidate and Keuchel was never expected to be a perennial ace. Around that, they acquired veteran pieces to finish it off, like McCann, Gattis, Reddick, Gurriel, Morton, etc.

[Horsehide Harry]

The thing people have to realize is, even with all of the tanking, it still took a lot of luck for Houston to have this team. Sure, Correa and Springer and Bregman were top picks. But they also had some bad top picks. Altuve was never expected to be a perennial MVP candidate and Keuchel was never expected to be a perennial ace. Around that, they acquired veteran pieces to finish it off, like McCann, Gattis, Reddick, Gurriel, Morton, etc.

They tanked and gathered a large amount of early picks plus benefited from early picks in each subsequent round after round one - Is it better to be the Yankees picking last in round one or the Astros picking 2/1 (discounting that they already picked 1/1)? The Astros also did well with international FA. And, this is key they entered their real period of emerging competitive capability with a low payroll allowing them to trade for more expensive piecers like McCann and sign targeted FA like Reddick and Morton and pick off a top International FA like Gurriel.

Yes they had and needed luck. But the degree that they are built to depend on good luck is in a completely different galaxy from the need for the Braves to have good luck. The Astros had a real plan. The Braves have had about 50 plans that change, if not day to day or week to week, at least month to month.

[50PoundHead]

Best stroke of luck the Astros had was not coming to terms with Aiken. But they did things correctly. Little question of that. Agree with the low payroll going into their contention window being an underappreciated key. A lot like the 1991 Braves.

The Braves have taken as many side-steps as missteps.

[nsacpi]

Best stroke of luck the Astros had was not coming to terms with Aiken. But they did things correctly. Little question of that. Agree with the low payroll going into their contention window being an underappreciated key. A lot like the 1991 Braves.

The Braves have taken as many side-steps as missteps.

The only real misstep was Wood for HO. Simmons was not a good trade, and weirder given we opted to hold on the Freeman and Teheran.

As it it though, the contracts of Muk, Kemp, JJ and a few others will be off the books by 2020. So even without any increase in payroll, we will have the funds by 2020 to selectively plug some holes with two or three solid veterans.

[Horsehide Harry]

The only real misstep was Wood for HO. Simmons was not a good trade, and weirder given we opted to hold on the Freeman and Teheran.

As it it though, the contracts of Muk, Kemp, JJ and a few others will be off the books by 2020. So even without any increase in payroll, we will have the funds by 2020 to selectively plug some holes with two or three solid veterans.

By 2020 Teheran will be coming off the books and a year later Freeman. So, assuming 2020 is a serious contention year (obviously luck could help OR hinder) then the Braves will have gone through the entire rebuild only to lose two of its most valuable assets just as it enters its window of opportunity. Until 2020 some of those you mentioned will continue to hinder and possibly provide negative value on a limited budget.

It's clear the Braves wanted a limited rebuild with a fast return to contention. They kept several of their most valuable trade assets while trading others. Now, they will watch guys like Teheran, Freeman and even Folty and Inciarte play through their primes, in some cases their contracts, only to potentially leave just when the window is nice and open (for however short a time period that is). And, when Freeman is ready to become a FA once again in 2022 he will be entering his 32 YO season, not someone you want to tie 25% of your payroll to.

The Braves bungled the rebuild. Before Coppygate. Depending on how bad the fall out from Coppygate is, the results will either be a shortened window of contention or round 2 of rebuilds.

[NYCBrave]

The only real misstep was Wood for HO. Simmons was not a good trade, and weirder given we opted to hold on the Freeman and Teheran.

As it it though, the contracts of Muk, Kemp, JJ and a few others will be off the books by 2020. So even without any increase in payroll, we will have the funds by 2020 to selectively plug some holes with two or three solid veterans.

I keep hearing that Simmons was a bad trade. Not saying I disagree, but I thought the point was to get out of the contract and not have to pay him high amounts during years we weren't going to contend. At the time we traded him, it also looked like the bat was never going to develop either. Obviously, his defense was always going to make the contract a value for any team, even as he makes 11 mil, 13 mil, and 15 mil in the next 3 years. But I kinda got the feeling the trade happened because we gave up on his bat.

[Horsehide Harry]

I keep hearing that Simmons was a bad trade. Not saying I disagree, but I thought the point was to get out of the contract and not have to pay him high amounts during years we weren't going to contend. At the time we traded him, it also looked like the bat was never going to develop either. Obviously, his defense was always going to make the contract a value for any team, even as he makes 11 mil, 13 mil, and 15 mil in the next 3 years. But I kinda got the feeling the trade happened because we gave up on his bat.

To me, it was a bad trade because the Braves didn't get more back. Sure, Newk was a top 100 player. But he was a heavy risk with his short history in baseball and heavy control issues. But, he was fine as part of the return. My issue was the inclusion of Aybar. The trade was Simmons and Briceno for Newcomb, Ellis, Aybar and cash. The year before he was traded, even with his struggles at the plate, Simmons was a 4 WAR player, with a 1.2 oWAR. The inclusion of Aybar diluted the return. Argument can be made that it was bad luck that Aybar's 2.3 WAR play for the Angels didn't translate to more than (-.4) WAR for the Braves and that's true but irrelevant. The Braves were beginning the process of a 5 year rebuild but shorted themselves on the return for one of their best assets just so they could hopefully lose draft, J2, waiver and rule 5 position but not being quite as bad as they should have been (and should have wanted to be). Unfortunately, Aybar pulled a fast one on them and sucked tremendously and they not only wore the L's but did it with less rebuild talent.

To me, that's bad luck spawned by a bad plan.

[striker42]

To me, it was a bad trade because the Braves didn't get more back. Sure, Newk was a top 100 player. But he was a heavy risk with his short history in baseball and heavy control issues. But, he was fine as part of the return. My issue was the inclusion of Aybar. The trade was Simmons and Briceno for Newcomb, Ellis, Aybar and cash. The year before he was traded, even with his struggles at the plate, Simmons was a 4 WAR player, with a 1.2 oWAR. The inclusion of Aybar diluted the return. Argument can be made that it was bad luck that Aybar's 2.3 WAR play for the Angels didn't translate to more than (-.4) WAR for the Braves and that's true but irrelevant. The Braves were beginning the process of a 5 year rebuild but shorted themselves on the return for one of their best assets just so they could hopefully lose draft, J2, waiver and rule 5 position but not being quite as bad as they should have been (and should have wanted to be). Unfortunately, Aybar pulled a fast one on them and sucked tremendously and they not only wore the L's but did it with less rebuild talent.

To me, that's bad luck spawned by a bad plan.

Yeah, having Aybar included was a loser move. If we'd immediately turned around and traded Aybar for something useful (I remember teams being interested in him) then it would have been a better deal.

[Southcack77]

Yeah, having Aybar included was a loser move. If we'd immediately turned around and traded Aybar for something useful (I remember teams being interested in him) then it would have been a better deal.

Wanted to steal some time at the position and trade him near deadline, I will wager. Didn't expect him to flop. I don't think it cost them much in prospects if anything to acquire him. Obviously trading him immediately probably would have worked out better.

[Enscheff]

To me, it was a bad trade because the Braves didn't get more back. Sure, Newk was a top 100 player. But he was a heavy risk with his short history in baseball and heavy control issues. But, he was fine as part of the return. My issue was the inclusion of Aybar. The trade was Simmons and Briceno for Newcomb, Ellis, Aybar and cash. The year before he was traded, even with his struggles at the plate, Simmons was a 4 WAR player, with a 1.2 oWAR. The inclusion of Aybar diluted the return. Argument can be made that it was bad luck that Aybar's 2.3 WAR play for the Angels didn't translate to more than (-.4) WAR for the Braves and that's true but irrelevant. The Braves were beginning the process of a 5 year rebuild but shorted themselves on the return for one of their best assets just so they could hopefully lose draft, J2, waiver and rule 5 position but not being quite as bad as they should have been (and should have wanted to be). Unfortunately, Aybar pulled a fast one on them and sucked tremendously and they not only wore the L's but did it with less rebuild talent.

To me, that's bad luck spawned by a bad plan.

The Simmons trade was defensible in a vacuum. It wasn't good, and probably pretty bad, but it was defensible.

What was indefensible was trading Simmons (controlled through 2020), but keeping Freeman (through 2021) and especially keeping Teheran (through 2020). If the rebuild was going to take long enough that Simmons had to go, why in the world would they keep Freeman and Teheran?

This type of disjointed rebuild strategy is the biggest failure of the FO and the cause of all the (non-legal) issues the team faces.

[Orphan Black]

So Otani hired an agent...I doubt the Braves have a chance at him.

I'm not sure is his offspeed pitch a forkball or a split. That looks to be his best pitch. He does have a decent curve, but that offspeed speed pitch just seems to disappear. Looks more like forkball to me than a split.

[NYCBrave]

The Simmons trade was defensible in a vacuum. It wasn't good, and probably pretty bad, but it was defensible.

What was indefensible was trading Simmons (controlled through 2020), but keeping Freeman (through 2021) and especially keeping Teheran (through 2020). If the rebuild was going to take long enough that Simmons had to go, why in the world would they keep Freeman and Teheran?

This type of disjointed rebuild strategy is the biggest failure of the FO and the cause of all the (non-legal) issues the team faces.

Here's my thing, it's easy to look back and question the Simmons move, but it's so easy to forget how bad Simmons was looking with the bat. Consider these stats:

2012: .289 avg, .751 OPS, 3 HR's, 12 BB's
2013: .248 avg, .692 OPS, 17 HR's, 40 BB's
2014: .244 avg, .617 OPS, 7 HR's, 32 BB's
2015: .265 avg, .659 OPS, 4 HR's, 39 BB's
2016: .281 avg, .690 OPS, 4 HR's, 28 BB's (first year with Angels)

Of course we all know how 2017 turned out. But legitimately, it looked like his development was headed in the wrong direction, and at best we'd have an all glove player, with a chance he didn't even hit enough to be a major leaguer.

So this is not a defense to saying we did the right thing, but he was legitimately one of the worst hitters in the league for a couple of years there. 2017 was pretty unexpected.

[Enscheff]

Here's my thing, it's easy to look back and question the Simmons move, but it's so easy to forget how bad Simmons was looking with the bat. Consider these stats:

2012: .289 avg, .751 OPS, 3 HR's, 12 BB's
2013: .248 avg, .692 OPS, 17 HR's, 40 BB's
2014: .244 avg, .617 OPS, 7 HR's, 32 BB's
2015: .265 avg, .659 OPS, 4 HR's, 39 BB's
2016: .281 avg, .690 OPS, 4 HR's, 28 BB's (first year with Angels)

Of course we all know how 2017 turned out. But legitimately, it looked like his development was headed in the wrong direction, and at best we'd have an all glove player, with a chance he didn't even hit enough to be a major leaguer.

So this is not a defense to saying we did the right thing, but he was legitimately one of the worst hitters in the league for a couple of years there. 2017 was pretty unexpected.

Compared to what they have now at SS? At least Simmons was known to be an elite defender. Even with the bad hitting Simmons was still a 2-3 win player.

Simmons' best seasons offensively came when he pulled the most fly balls. He is a glowing example of why guys want to pull more fly balls. If the Braves had an analytics department larger than 1 guy and an intern they would have had him make the same changes he made 2017.

As I said, I can't fault the Braves too much for trading a guy who provided most of his value on defense before his defense declined. What I fault them for is wasting other valuable assets by keeping them. Trading Simmons and holding onto Teheran was an inexcusable set of moves for a team to make.

[Horsehide Harry]

The Simmons trade was defensible in a vacuum. It wasn't good, and probably pretty bad, but it was defensible.

What was indefensible was trading Simmons (controlled through 2020), but keeping Freeman (through 2021) and especially keeping Teheran (through 2020). If the rebuild was going to take long enough that Simmons had to go, why in the world would they keep Freeman and Teheran?

This type of disjointed rebuild strategy is the biggest failure of the FO and the cause of all the (non-legal) issues the team faces.

What I been sayin'

[Horsehide Harry]

Compared to what they have now at SS? At least Simmons was known to be an elite defender. Even with the bad hitting Simmons was still a 2-3 win player.

Simmons' best seasons offensively came when he pulled the most fly balls. He is a glowing example of why guys want to pull more fly balls. If the Braves had an analytics department larger than 1 guy and an intern they would have had him make the same changes he made 2017.

As I said, I can't fault the Braves too much for trading a guy who provided most of his value on defense before his defense declined. What I fault them for is wasting other valuable assets by keeping them. Trading Simmons and holding onto Teheran was an inexcusable set of moves for a team to make.

The trade of Simmons was right. The return of Aybar as part of what was received was not.

[Enscheff]

MLBTR finally put out their Braves outlook:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/offseason-outlook-atlanta-braves-2017-18.html

Nothing in there we haven’t already hashed out here 100 times, but it’s a pretty solid take.

Main points:

- BP needs an upgrade.

- Adams, Jace and Santana are non-tender candidates.

- The Braves need an upgrade at 3B and LF.

- They will have to eat money to trade Kemp, and maybe some to move Markakis.

- They could use an established SP, but who knows how many resources they are willing to use to address it.

- With AA in charge now there might be fireworks.

No mention of what they think payroll might be, which is an odd thing to leave out of these types of articles, and typically isn’t. I’m operating under the assumption it will be decreased to the $100M-$110M range (bottom 10 in the league).

[Chico]

As of now here's what I'd do

Trade Kemp to the Twins for Phil Hughes and Kohl Stewart (who is unproetected) We'd save about $6M per year over the next 2 years. Hughes wouldn't pitch til mid-season, but AA knows all about using the DL for injured pitchers

Trade Markakis, Johnson, and $5M to the Orioles for a mid-level prospect/wild card or two. We'll save about 10M

Trade Matt Adams to a team for a mid-level prospect/wild card- We'd save about $5M

So we'd shave off about $21M from the $87M projected payroll to give us a new number of $66M.

I'd sign Frazier at a 3/36 or 2/28 with 3rd year option kind of contract to be the cleanup hitter and clubhouse leader

I'd trade for 1 RH and 1 LH young hitting OF'er. Some rumored names have been Joc, Grichuk, Piscotty, Bradley Jr., Kepler or some of the Brewers guys...basically whoever I could work out deal with and get the most value. I'd start them out in the corners for a few weeks and then platoon them after. One would have to be able to back up CF as well. None of these guys would cost a lot of money yet.

So, if we're at 80M or so after signing Frazier now we'd have about $30M to $40M to spend. I'd use that to upgrade the pen and rotation.

[50PoundHead]

As of now here's what I'd do

Trade Kemp to the Twins for Phil Hughes and Kohl Stewart (who is unproetected) We'd save about $6M per year over the next 2 years. Hughes wouldn't pitch til mid-season, but AA knows all about using the DL for injured pitchers

Trade Markakis, Johnson, and $5M to the Orioles for a mid-level prospect/wild card or two. We'll save about 10M

Trade Matt Adams to a team for a mid-level prospect/wild card- We'd save about $5M

So we'd shave off about $21M from the $87M projected payroll to give us a new number of $66M.

I'd sign Frazier at a 3/36 or 2/28 with 3rd year option kind of contract to be the cleanup hitter and clubhouse leader

I'd trade for 1 RH and 1 LH young hitting OF'er. Some rumored names have been Joc, Grichuk, Piscotty, Bradley Jr., Kepler or some of the Brewers guys...basically whoever I could work out deal with and get the most value. I'd start them out in the corners for a few weeks and then platoon them after. One would have to be able to back up CF as well. None of these guys would cost a lot of money yet.

So, if we're at 80M or so after signing Frazier now we'd have about $30M to $40M to spend. I'd use that to upgrade the pen and rotation.

Twins already have a couple of DHs-in-training with Sano's weight hovering near 3 bills and Kennys Vargas showing some pop. I don't think they need another guy in that mold. Twins won't consider trading Kepler.

[Enscheff]

Twins already have a couple of DHs-in-training with Sano's weight hovering near 3 bills and Kennys Vargas showing some pop. I don't think they need another guy in that mold. Twins won't consider trading Kepler.

It will be extremely challenging to trade Kemp. AA is going to have to find an AL team that needs a DH and has another bad contract to send the Braves way. Problem is, most AL teams don't look to fill DH by acquiring new players...they transition current older players into that role or rotate players through DH to rest them while keeping their bats in the lineup. The whole benefit to being an AL team is to acquire FAs who transition to DH at the end of their contract, not acquire players who are already DHs.

There are so many 1B/DH sluggers on the FA market to be had on cheap 1 year deals that no team is going to pay more than $5M total for Kemp. At that amount of savings he is probably best used as the primary bench bat and DH by the Braves. It would also be nice if he could learn 1B to back up Freeman.

[50PoundHead]

MLBTR finally put out their Braves outlook:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/offseason-outlook-atlanta-braves-2017-18.html

Nothing in there we haven’t already hashed out here 100 times, but it’s a pretty solid take.

Main points:

- BP needs an upgrade.

- Adams, Jace and Santana are non-tender candidates.

- The Braves need an upgrade at 3B and LF.

- They will have to eat money to trade Kemp, and maybe some to move Markakis.

- They could use an established SP, but who knows how many resources they are willing to use to address it.

- With AA in charge now there might be fireworks.

No mention of what they think payroll might be, which is an odd thing to leave out of these types of articles, and typically isn’t. I’m operating under the assumption it will be decreased to the $100M-$110M range (bottom 10 in the league).

Sheesh. A junior high kid could have come up the MLBTR conclusions. Braves are in a similar position with Matt Adams that they were with Kelly Johnson when they non-tendered him. Johnson is a better player than Adams, but the point is that no one is going to trade for Adams until the non-tender date has passed because they want to see if the Braves are going to non-tender him first. As the article points out, guys like Adams--while not growing on trees--aren't exactly an endangered species in baseball. I figure at least one of Jace Peterson and Danny Santana will be non-tendered (perhaps both).

[jpx7]

I figure at least one of Jace Peterson and Danny Santana will be non-tendered (perhaps both).

I'd non-tender both, regardless of what happens with Adams.

[Enscheff]

Remember all those folks endlessly arguing with me that MAdams had increased his trade value by popping a few HRs in Atlanta? Turns out he has **** for trade value and the Braves are trying to trade him for anything with a pulse before they non-tender him on Friday:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/braves-trade-rumors-matt-adams.html

I wonder...does clv still think MAdams can get Odorizzi from the Rays straight up? According to him, that trade "makes too much sense NOT to happen".

[thethe]

12:24
Bryan: Did Austin Riley boost his prospect stock in the AFL?
12:24
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes


What is wrong with Longerhagen? Doesn't he know you can't change your prospect stock in such a short period of time?

[Enscheff]

12:24
Bryan: Did Austin Riley boost his prospect stock in the AFL?
12:24
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes


What is wrong with Longerhagen? Doesn't he know you can't change your prospect stock in such a short period of time?

He used to have him rated as a FV 40 guy.

How about this...

You make a projection about Riley like you did with Jace, and when he’s about to be non-tendered we will see how right you were.

[thewupk]

12:24
Bryan: Did Austin Riley boost his prospect stock in the AFL?
12:24
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes


What is wrong with Longerhagen? Doesn't he know you can't change your prospect stock in such a short period of time?

I'm curious how he will rate Riley. I'd be surprised if he's a 55 FV prospect.

[Enscheff]

I'm curious how he will rate Riley. I'd be surprised if he's a 55 FV prospect.

Safe to assume he didn’t go from 40 to 55 haha.

[thewupk]

Safe to assume he didn’t go from 40 to 55 haha.

Yeah. Baseball America seems to be real high on him for some reason. They have Riley ahead of 3 guys that Logenhagen ranked at a 55. I personally don't get that. Riley can get a boost and still be a meh prospect which is what I suspect is going to be the case with his rankings.

[thethe]

I'm curious how he will rate Riley. I'd be surprised if he's a 55 FV prospect.

The reports on his bat speed and defense should give him a considerable boost. Probably a fv50 but easily changed with a good start in AA.

[Enscheff]

Yeah. Baseball America seems to be real high on him for some reason. They have Riley ahead of 3 guys that Logenhagen ranked at a 55. I personally don't get that. Riley can get a boost and still be a meh prospect which is what I suspect is going to be the case with his rankings.

BA also labeled him as the best defensive infielder in the organization, so, yeah.

Riley is a good prospect. I would probably hang a FV 45/50 on him and lean towards 50. He would be just outside my Top 100, but well inside the Top 150 for sure.

As far as Braves lists go he would be on the edge of the Top 10 for me.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

BA also labeled him as the best defensive infielder in the organization, so, yeah.

Riley is a good prospect. I would probably hang a FV 45/50 on him and lean towards 50. He would be just outside my Top 100, but well inside the Top 150 for sure.

As far as Braves lists go he would be on the edge of the Top 10 for me.
That sounds reasonable to me

[thethe]

However you want to rank him its clear now that Riley is a real prospect and should be considered in the Braves long term plans. That is why I am strongly against any option that is signed longer than 2 years and why it makes so much sense to just play Camargo.

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

If you aren’t shooting for playoffs, I agree

[thethe]

If you aren’t shooting for playoffs, I agree

I don't think playoffs should be the #1 goal going into 2018. There are much more important things for the future of the organization.

[Enscheff]

However you want to rank him its clear now that Riley is a real prospect and should be considered in the Braves long term plans. That is why I am strongly against any option that is signed longer than 2 years and why it makes so much sense to just play Camargo.

Teams do not plan their futures around 45/50 FV prospects. It’s asinine to even consider it.

Teams plan around Swanson, Albies and Acuna. They do not plan around Riley.

[nsacpi]

Teams plan around Swanson, Albies and Acuna. They do not plan around Riley.

Correct. If Riley develops into a regular, we will find a way to benefit from that.

However, it is also a moot point. With the possible exception of Moustakas, there isn't a candidate out there for third that is going to "block" anyone for an extended period.

We should go about shoring up the left side of the infield for 2018, focusing as always on getting good value and controlling financial risk, and let the chips fall where they may with respect to Riley's development.

[thethe]

Correct. If Riley develops into a regular, we will find a way to benefit from that.

However, it is also a moot point. With the possible exception of Moustakas, there isn't a candidate out there for third that is going to "block" anyone for an extended period.

We should go about shoring up the left side of the infield for 2018, focusing as always on getting good value and controlling financial risk, and let the chips fall where they may with respect to Riley's development.

If Camargo wasn't present then I wouldn't hold this stance but I'm not sure why we wouldn't believe that Camargo will provide plenty of surplus value at third considering his defensive abilities and continual improvement with the bat.

Also, prospects rankings are not stagnant. Just 2 years ago Gohara was a 45FV prospect. Did he really improve that much or did he just stay healthy and continue to perform? Riley has excelled thus far in his career at a nice age delta to the level he was playing at. The reports are improving based on the initial reports far out of peoples mind. Who is to say that Riley isn't a 55FV by the end of the season?

Riley is real close to being in the discussion for 2019 third base and I don't want a 2 year committment to some 32+ year old guy blocking that. To me its just an inefficient use of funds. Just get BP arms and try and see if you can fix LF.

[nsacpi]

If Camargo wasn't present then I wouldn't hold this stance but I'm not sure why we wouldn't believe that Camargo will provide plenty of surplus value at third considering his defensive abilities and continual improvement with the bat.

Also, prospects rankings are not stagnant. Just 2 years ago Gohara was a 45FV prospect. Did he really improve that much or did he just stay healthy and continue to perform? Riley has excelled thus far in his career at a nice age delta to the level he was playing at. The reports are improving based on the initial reports far out of peoples mind. Who is to say that Riley isn't a 55FV by the end of the season?

Riley is real close to being in the discussion for 2019 third base and I don't want a 2 year committment to some 32+ year old guy blocking that. To me its just an inefficient use of funds. Just get BP arms and try and see if you can fix LF.

We're kind of splitting hairs here. I'm willing to go three years for guys like Nunez and Frazier. You're willing to go 2. Realistically those two are not going to sign 2 year deals. We are probably not going to get them even with a 3-year offer. Most likely we are going to trade for someone to help out on the left side of the infield. Prado has 2 years left. Solarte has 1 year with 2 options. Third will be there for the taking if Riley pans out.

[thethe]

Its just winter league but its a data point. So far this year Camargo would be leading the league in OPS if he qualified. I get that its a small sample size as well as an inferior league but its another data point showing an offensive improvement (mainly power) that Camargo has shown.

I'm not even expecting him to be a stud or a really good player but why we can't think that a 2.5 WAR isn't possible is strange to me and I would sign for that right now.

[thethe]

We're kind of splitting hairs here. I'm willing to go three years for guys like Nunez and Frazier. You're willing to go 2. Realistically those two are not going to sign 2 year deals. We are probably not going to get them even with a 3-year offer. Most likely we are going to trade for someone to help out on the left side of the infield. Prado has 2 years left. Solarte has 1 year with 2 options. Third will be there for the taking if Riley pans out.

My 2 year comment was after we sign them to a 3 year deal this year and Riley is ready in 2019.

[nsacpi]

Its just winter league but its a data point. So far this year Camargo would be leading the league in OPS if he qualified. I get that its a small sample size as well as an inferior league but its another data point showing an offensive improvement (mainly power) that Camargo has shown.

I'm not even expecting him to be a stud or a really good player but why we can't think that a 2.5 WAR isn't possible is strange to me and I would sign for that right now.

I like Camargo and expect him to get plenty of at bats in 2018. But I do think we need another player who has already shown he can play at the major league level to strengthen the left side of the infield.

[thethe]

I like Camargo and expect him to get plenty of at bats in 2018. But I do think we need another player who has already shown he can play at the major league level to strengthen the left side of the infield.

Wouldn't we be looking for a left handed bat though considering his splits? I'd be interested in Solarte for that reason as he would compliment Camargo nicely.

Bringing in a right handed bat just doesn't make sense to me.

[Enscheff]

If Camargo wasn't present then I wouldn't hold this stance but I'm not sure why we wouldn't believe that Camargo will provide plenty of surplus value at third considering his defensive abilities and continual improvement with the bat.

Also, prospects rankings are not stagnant. Just 2 years ago Gohara was a 45FV prospect. Did he really improve that much or did he just stay healthy and continue to perform? Riley has excelled thus far in his career at a nice age delta to the level he was playing at. The reports are improving based on the initial reports far out of peoples mind. Who is to say that Riley isn't a 55FV by the end of the season?

Riley is real close to being in the discussion for 2019 third base and I don't want a 2 year committment to some 32+ year old guy blocking that. To me its just an inefficient use of funds. Just get BP arms and try and see if you can fix LF.

And teams were not planning around Gohara back when he was a 45, just like they weren’t planning around all the other 45 prospects who didn’t turn out to be anything...which is why they were graded at 45.

[thethe]

And teams were not planning around Gohara back when he was a 45, just like they weren’t planning around all the other 45 prospects who didn’t turn out to be anything...which is why they were graded at 45.

THe Mariners certainly made the mistake of not planning around him.

[nsacpi]

Wouldn't we be looking for a left handed bat though considering his splits? I'd be interested in Solarte for that reason as he would compliment Camargo nicely.

Bringing in a right handed bat just doesn't make sense to me.

Ideally a left-handed bat, yes. But the main thing is to get a good player to help out on the left side of the infield. Cozart is another one I'd be willing to out 3 years for.

[nsacpi]

And teams were not planning around Gohara back when he was a 45, just like they weren’t planning around all the other 45 prospects who didn’t turn out to be anything...which is why they were graded at 45.

Gohara also pitched very well at four different levels in 2017. Not too many prospects blow through 4 levels in one year like he did. And its silly to project anyone will do something like that. But when it happens you adjust your valuation accordingly.

[thethe]

Gohara also pitched very well at four different levels in 2017. Not too many prospects blow through 4 levels in one year like he did. And its silly to project anyone will do something like that. But when it happens you adjust your valuation accordingly.

But the question is then was the 2016 valuation correct? Did he really improve that much in one season or was there a consensus miss on who he was as a player?

[nsacpi]

But the question is then was the 2016 valuation correct? Did he really improve that much in one season or was there a consensus miss on who he was as a player?

From the perspective of any team, they have to look at more than one observation to decide if they are satisfied with their valuation system. I'm sure the Mariners are doing some analysis to see if they missed something they shouldn't have with Gohara. But one of the properties you want out of a projection system is for the errors to be distributed fairly normally. You don't want all your errors to be in one direction. Its ok for a fan like you to only err in one direction. Much less so for someone in the business.

[Enscheff]

I do agree with tehteh that it all depends on the goals of 2018. If the Braves are going to push for 85+ wins and fix LF, 3B, the BP, and maybe add a stable SP, it’s silly to plan around Riley.

However, if the Braves are not going to fix all those positions (most likely due to not having the payroll to do so), then they may as well see how Camargo does. A year from now Riley could very well have put himself in position to be planned around. More likely he’s a 1-2 win guy who will be non-tendered when he hits Ard 1 or 2, but if the Braves aren’t going to win in 2018 anyways they may as well find out and leave the space open just in case.

[Enscheff]

From the perspective of any team, they have to look at more than one observation to decide if they are satisfied with their valuation system. I'm sure the Mariners are doing some analysis to see if they missed something they shouldn't have with Gohara. But one of the properties you want out of a projection system is for the errors to be distributed fairly normally. You don't want all your errors to be in one direction. Its ok for a fan like you to only err in one direction. Much less so for someone in the business.

Dipoto is pretty bad. He has gutted the farm making win now moves, and hasn’t won anything.

[nsacpi]

I do agree with tehteh that it all depends on the goals of 2018. If the Braves are going to push for 85+ wins and fix LF, 3B, the BP, and maybe add a stable SP, it’s silly to plan around Riley.

However, if the Braves are not going to fix all those positions (most likely due to not having the payroll to do so), then they may as well see how Camargo does. A year from now Riley could very well have put himself in position to be planned around. More likely he’s a 1-2 win guy who will be non-tendered when he hits Ard 1 or 2, but if the Braves aren’t going to win in 2018 anyways they may as well find out and leave the space open just in case.

We're going to be distributing about 1400 plate appearances between short and third. Camargo is going to get 400-500 of those even if we bring in a third player.

[thethe]

We're going to be distributing about 1400 plate appearances between short and third. Camargo is going to get 400-500 of those even if we bring in a third player.

But then what happens in 2019 if Riley is ready?

[nsacpi]

But then what happens in 2019 if Riley is ready?

Lets say hypothetically we have Cozart, Camargo and Swanson sharing third and short in 2018. And they turn in solid seasons. There are two benefits here. One is solid production from the left side of the infield in 2018. The second is we have a trade chip if Riley pans out.

The downside risk to acquiring someone is that he fails to live up the contract and we are stuck with him.

The downside risk to not acquiring someone like Cozart comes if Camargo and/or Swanson plays poorly in 2018 or gets hurt and we don't have anything better than a replacement level player to plug in.

I am for acquiring someone from the group of Prado, Solarte, Yandy Diaz, Cozart, Frazier and Nunez. We have enough choices so that we can avoid overpaying or taking undue risk.

[Enscheff]

If the Braves aren’t pushing for 85+ wins in 2018, there is no reason to protect against Swanson or Camargo getting hurt or being terrible.

Either fix all of 3B, LF, the BP and maybe a SP, or don’t spend resources on anything.

Half measures are the worst course of action, and the Braves should have already learned that the last 3 years.

[nsacpi]

Well, where are we right now:

48 is replacement

Bench and pen: 4 (running total 52)
Flowers: 2(54)
Freeman: 5(59)
Albies: 3(62)
Swanson: 1(63)
Camargo: 1(64)
Acuna: 2(66)
Inciarte: 3(69)
Kemp/Muk in left: 1(70)
Teheran: 2.5 (72.5)
Folty: 2.5 (75)
Gohara: 2.5 (77.5)
Newcomb: 2 (79.5)
Veteran Starter: 1.5 (81)

If we can pick up a couple more wins along the expected win curve by having someone like Cozart, I think it is worth doing regardless of how we handle the situation in left.

[thewupk]

Gohara also pitched very well at four different levels in 2017. Not too many prospects blow through 4 levels in one year like he did. And its silly to project anyone will do something like that. But when it happens you adjust your valuation accordingly.

Exactly. Logenhagen was quick on the Gohara train while some (Baseball America) have been slow. Gohara blew up and dominated at 4 levels of competition in a single year which is really rare for a pitcher. That is exceptional and simply doesn't happen that often. For every prospect like Gohara there are also 30+ (made up number) like Travis Demmeriite who also has all the tools in the world but just simply toil around in the minors and likely amount to nothing. The Braves saw something they liked in Gohara and hit on a lottery pick essentially. But because one does doesn't mean we should expect these things to occur frequently. Could Riley be that guy? Anything is possible. I will root for the guy because the Braves need a long term solution there. Currently he is doing everything you could ask of the guy but is still a wait and see prospect. I would not construct the major league roster in a way that you would be afraid to block him. If he becomes a guy then that's a good problem to have.

As was mentioned earlier. Players like Acuna and Albies. Those are prospects you plan your major league roster around so they aren't blocked.

[Southcack77]

Exactly. Logenhagen was quick on the Gohara train while some (Baseball America) have been slow. Gohara blew up and dominated at 4 levels of competition in a single year which is really rare for a pitcher. That is exceptional and simply doesn't happen that often. For every prospect like Gohara there are also 30+ (made up number) like Travis Demmeriite who also has all the tools in the world but just simply toil around in the minors and likely amount to nothing. The Braves saw something they liked in Gohara and hit on a lottery pick essentially. But because one does doesn't mean we should expect these things to occur frequently. Could Riley be that guy? Anything is possible. I will root for the guy because the Braves need a long term solution there. Currently he is doing everything you could ask of the guy but is still a wait and see prospect. I would not construct the major league roster in a way that you would be afraid to block him. If he becomes a guy then that's a good problem to have.

As was mentioned earlier. Players like Acuna and Albies. Those are prospects you plan your major league roster around so they aren't blocked.

Braves saw a performance spike and thought they were buying low. Mariners saw a performance spike and thought they were selling high.

[Enscheff]

Braves saw a performance spike and thought they were buying low. Mariners saw a performance spike and thought they were selling high.

The Braves buy into sudden (and usually temporary) spikes in performance more so than almost any other team. It usually leads to drafting or trading for pitchers that no other teams value as highly. In the case of Gohara it may have finally paid off.

[nsacpi]

Braves saw a performance spike and thought they were buying low. Mariners saw a performance spike and thought they were selling high.

The Mariners also soured on his work habits, including the weight issue. Which might yet turn out to be something that significantly affects his ability to reach his potential.

[nsacpi]

The Braves buy into sudden (and usually temporary) spikes in performance more so than almost any other team. It usually leads to drafting or trading for pitchers that no other teams value as highly. In the case of Gohara it may have finally paid off.

As a rule, it pays to make deals with front offices that are known to be below average. And avoid those that are very sharp.

[Eyeman]

I think the Braves have already messed up on their best chance for significant improvement next year. We blew it by resigning our current pitching coach and manager.

Once we get Acuna up and give Matt Kemp much more rest, I think we are putting a solid team on the field. The key will be development of our young starting pitchers. I just don't think our current pitching coach and manager are suited to do that.

I'm not even sure our manager is smart enough to use the arms of Camargo at third and Acuna in RF. I'd be willing to bet that he moves Acuna to LF or RF depending on whether he starts him with Markakis or Kemp. Same with defensive subbing for Kemp after his third at bat. I can't remember a single game where Snitker did that last year (probably did but I don't remember it).

[Enscheff]

As a rule, it pays to make deals with front offices that are known to be below average. And avoid those that are very sharp.

Hopefully AA makes the Braves one of the sharp teams, or at least no longer one of the dumb ones.

[nsacpi]

My list of "below average" front offices: Mariners, Angels, Royals, Twins, Tigers, Orioles, Phillies, Marlins, Mets, Brewers

[Oklahomabrave]

My list of "below average" front offices: Mariners, Angels, Royals, Twins, Tigers, Orioles, Phillies, Marlins, Mets, Brewers

Reds?

[Enscheff]

My list of "below average" front offices: Mariners, Angels, Royals, Twins, Tigers, Orioles, Phillies, Marlins, Mets, Brewers

I’m inclined to throw Boston in that group as well. Dombrowski has one skill: gutting a farm for win now pieces.

I somewhat disagree about the Brewers being below average though. Tigers are probably average as well, but their navigation of their upcoming rebuild will be illustrative.

[nsacpi]

Reds?

I think they have been turning things around

[biggentleben]

The Mariners also soured on his work habits, including the weight issue. Which might yet turn out to be something that significantly affects his ability to reach his potential.

Laughable comment, considering he had lost in the range of 60 pounds before that 2016 season that got the attention of many around the game who weren't already paying attention. Gohara has worked hard to make changes to his diet and self-care. Some guys don't hold weight well, but Gohara is one of the more reactionary guys off the mound. Sabathia until just a few years ago when his knee stuff really took hold was the same way, considered among the best defenders off the mound in the entire game.

[Enscheff]

How the Tigers handle Norris and Fulmer during the rebuild will be all I need to see when rating their competence.

If they follow the Braves model with Teheran they are below average.

If they follow the White Sox plan with Sale and Quintana they are average or better.

I don’t expect them to bumble around and waste pitching value like the Braves did.

[Enscheff]

Laughable comment, considering he had lost in the range of 60 pounds before that 2016 season that got the attention of many around the game who weren't already paying attention. Gohara has worked hard to make changes to his diet and self-care. Some guys don't hold weight well, but Gohara is one of the more reactionary guys off the mound. Sabathia until just a few years ago when his knee stuff really took hold was the same way, considered among the best defenders off the mound in the entire game.

You have claimed the Braves can trade international pool space at $1M a pop for prospects better than Drew Waters.

You have also said Pentecost will be claimed in the R5 draft and kept on a MLB roster all year.

We will see who makes laughable comments soon enough.

[Oklahomabrave]

How the Tigers handle Norris and Fulmer during the rebuild will be all I need to see when rating their competence.

If they follow the Braves model with Teheran they are below average.

If they follow the White Sox plan with Sale and Quintana they are average or better.

I don’t expect them to bumble around and waste pitching value like the Braves did.

They arguably did with Fulmer already. He could have gotten a haul prior to surgery and could see his value plummet.

[biggentleben]

My list of "below average" front offices: Mariners, Angels, Royals, Twins, Tigers, Orioles, Phillies, Marlins, Mets, Brewers

The league would laugh at you. The Twins and Brewers are considered two of the most intelligent front offices in the league. The Twins hired Falvey and Levine and have been widely praised for their re-make of the organization (including a now-top 10 farm system). The Brewers continually have guys farmed off of their scouting and analytics departments by other organizations.

Funny also that you'd have the guy who was instrumental in the Yankees farm system development (Angels GM) and the guy every Braves fan was fawning over (Moore) on your list....

[Oklahomabrave]

The league would laugh at you. The Twins and Brewers are considered two of the most intelligent front offices in the league. The Twins hired Falvey and Levine and have been widely praised for their re-make of the organization (including a now-top 10 farm system). The Brewers continually have guys farmed off of their scouting and analytics departments by other organizations.

Funny also that you'd have the guy who was instrumental in the Yankees farm system development (Angels GM) and the guy every Braves fan was fawning over (Moore) on your list....

Agree with Brewers and Twins, I am not a fan of Moore though. I was estatic when we got AA instead.

[biggentleben]

You have claimed the Braves can trade international pool space at $1M a pop for prospects better than Drew Waters.

You have also said Pentecost will be claimed in the R5 draft and kept on a MLB roster all year.

We will see who makes laughable comments soon enough.

No, I said the player the team traded for $1.25M of IFA money would rank better for me than Waters in my 2018 prospect list. Heck, I'm not sure I'd even hold to Ventura better than Waters if you asked me to project 5 years, but right now, I see a higher floor for Ventura's developed skills and developing other skills. Waters is a lot of high school hype and 58 PA in the GCL that looked good, but he also struck out nearly 1/3 of the time he came to the plate and showed very rough ability to handle struggles in his time in Danville. I'll take the guy I've seen positively handle adversity and still have positive projection left whose tools may not be as high ceiling over the guy who has struggled with the first exposure to adversity he had and has a significantly low floor still.

Heck, I'm not even saying I'd have him 10 spots higher on my list, just that I'd have Ventura higher.

I spend my time reviewing hundreds and thousands of hours of game film and speaking with guys who are there in person when I cannot be. I'm not making random comments on players for the sport of it...

[Enscheff]

They arguably did with Fulmer already. He could have gotten a haul prior to surgery and could see his value plummet.

Fulmer was having elbow issues all season, so I’m not sure that’s fair. When they decided to rebuild his injury concerns were already well publicized.

If he is gone by this coming trade deadline I think the Tigers will have done as well as could be reasonably expected.

[biggentleben]

Agree with Brewers and Twins, I am not a fan of Moore though. I was estatic when we got AA instead.

Don't disagree there at all. I like Moore more as a "manager" and less of the hands-on stuff. The idea of Moore as president of baseball ops with another as a GM is the only way I was on board with him coming to the team, but the Royals wanted much too much in return.

[Enscheff]

No, I said the player the team traded for $1.25M of IFA money would rank better for me than Waters in my 2018 prospect list. Heck, I'm not sure I'd even hold to Ventura better than Waters if you asked me to project 5 years, but right now, I see a higher floor for Ventura's developed skills and developing other skills. Waters is a lot of high school hype and 58 PA in the GCL that looked good, but he also struck out nearly 1/3 of the time he came to the plate and showed very rough ability to handle struggles in his time in Danville. I'll take the guy I've seen positively handle adversity and still have positive projection left whose tools may not be as high ceiling over the guy who has struggled with the first exposure to adversity he had and has a significantly low floor still.

Heck, I'm not even saying I'd have him 10 spots higher on my list, just that I'd have Ventura higher.

I spend my time reviewing hundreds and thousands of hours of game film and speaking with guys who are there in person when I cannot be. I'm not making random comments on players for the sport of it...

Thousands of hours of game film? You spend 5 hours a day, every day of the year watching film? And you also have time to “spend an hour in google chat” talking about guys in the Red Sox system?

How do you find time to compete in wing eating contests?

[Oklahomabrave]

Don't disagree there at all. I like Moore more as a "manager" and less of the hands-on stuff. The idea of Moore as president of baseball ops with another as a GM is the only way I was on board with him coming to the team, but the Royals wanted much too much in return.
Have any insight what they wanted? Also, did you hear anything in regards to Tinnish? Seemed odd.

Lastly what do you know about Whitley? Do you think the promise to start portends to particular trades?

[Enscheff]

Don't disagree there at all. I like Moore more as a "manager" and less of the hands-on stuff. The idea of Moore as president of baseball ops with another as a GM is the only way I was on board with him coming to the team, but the Royals wanted much too much in return.

Being on board with Moore in any way speaks volumes.

[thethe]

Well, where are we right now:

48 is replacement

Bench and pen: 4 (running total 52)
Flowers: 2(54)
Freeman: 5(59)
Albies: 3(62)
Swanson: 1(63)
Camargo: 1(64)
Acuna: 2(66)
Inciarte: 3(69)
Kemp/Muk in left: 1(70)
Teheran: 2.5 (72.5)
Folty: 2.5 (75)
Gohara: 2.5 (77.5)
Newcomb: 2 (79.5)
Veteran Starter: 1.5 (81)

If we can pick up a couple more wins along the expected win curve by having someone like Cozart, I think it is worth doing regardless of how we handle the situation in left.

The way I see it is the Braves need to focus their assets on just 1 or 2 parts of the team in terms of an additional monetary committmeent whether that be on the FA market or via trade. When I look at the team the obvious needs are RP/LF and not so obvious 3B/SS/SP. The only way I forsee a Bravse high 80 team is that they apply these limited funds (unfortunately it seems they are in fact limited) on RP and/or LF. The Braves are going to need to have a young player on the roster step up and provide more then what is projected. Maybe thats Swanson. Maybe its Camargo. Heck, maybe Albies is a 6 WAR player next year who knows. But I think you have to give the guys a chance already on the roster a chance to show that. We absolutely need RP help. There is just not enough arms for a full season and we can't expect guys like Freeman to just as good next season. LF is what it is. I see a platoon of Neck/Kemp to be decent so if we only have 20-30 million to spend I don't want a major chunk of that to be on a position (3B) where there is an internal option capable of providing 2-3 WAR at league minimum.

I just don't see 3B as a position we should be filling long term right now. We need a year to evaluate what we have internally before that decision is made. Now we definitely need an outfielder as there just isn't a third guy there for another 2+ years. Maybe Pache can advance quickly but we need more of an offensive option under the assumption that Ender is here long term.

[biggentleben]

Thousands of hours of game film? You spend 5 hours a day, every day of the year watching film? And you also have time to “spend an hour in google chat” talking about guys in the Red Sox system?

How do you find time to compete in wing eating contests?

Writing about the scouting I do is my job. I don't watch every second of between inning stuff, which cuts a 3-hour game down by almost half, especially when you can jump forward on pitching changes and other such things as well. So when you can turn 300 hours of game film into 150 hours of time invested to process, you can watch over 1,000 hours in a year pretty quickly when adding major league, minor league, and amateur video all together.

I do have 5 foster kids, though, that take most of the rest of my time, so no contests to speak of - though I'm not a wing fan.

[nsacpi]

The way I see it is the Braves need to focus their assets on just 1 or 2 parts of the team in terms of an additional monetary committmeent whether that be on the FA market or via trade. When I look at the team the obvious needs are RP/LF and not so obvious 3B/SS/SP. The only way I forsee a Bravse high 80 team is that they apply these limited funds (unfortunately it seems they are in fact limited) on RP and/or LF. The Braves are going to need to have a young player on the roster step up and provide more then what is projected. Maybe thats Swanson. Maybe its Camargo. Heck, maybe Albies is a 6 WAR player next year who knows. But I think you have to give the guys a chance already on the roster a chance to show that. We absolutely need RP help. There is just not enough arms for a full season and we can't expect guys like Freeman to just as good next season. LF is what it is. I see a platoon of Neck/Kemp to be decent so if we only have 20-30 million to spend I don't want a major chunk of that to be on a position (3B) where there is an internal option capable of providing 2-3 WAR at league minimum.

I just don't see 3B as a position we should be filling long term right now. We need a year to evaluate what we have internally before that decision is made. Now we definitely need an outfielder as there just isn't a third guy there for another 2+ years. Maybe Pache can advance quickly but we need more of an offensive option under the assumption that Ender is here long term.

We have two unproven guys on the left side of the infield. To me that's a big area of need. Get someone else who has had success at the major league level that can help out. With 3 players they can each get 400-500 PAs.

[thethe]

We have two unproven guys on the left side of the infield. To me that's a big area of need. Get someone else who has had success at the major league level that can help out. With 3 players they can each get 400-500 PAs.

Yes - They are unproven but each has a pedigree to be at least a league average player and maybe a little more. The same can't be said for RP/LF and we have scarce resources.

[Southcack77]

The Mariners also soured on his work habits, including the weight issue. Which might yet turn out to be something that significantly affects his ability to reach his potential.

I agree. I'm not sure the Mariners were wrong though they ended up getting nothing at all out of the trade.

[thethe]

I agree. I'm not sure the Mariners were wrong though they ended up getting nothing at all out of the trade.

I want to know the scout that pushed the Braves to trade for him.

[Enscheff]

I agree. I'm not sure the Mariners were wrong though they ended up getting nothing at all out of the trade.

They converted a lottery ticket pitcher into a MLB SP with 2 years of control. That is a solid transaction to make, even though Smyly got hurt and Gohara appears to have made huge strides. As usual, trades can’t be judged with hindsight when a lottery ticket hits.

Their process flaw is thinking they are contenders and making win now moves when they are actually terrible. They also seem to have major issues in their player development (not necessarily scouting) department.

[biggentleben]

I want to know the scout that pushed the Braves to trade for him.

Interestingly, all three Mariners who were there when Kiley was working with Fangraphs got absolutely glowing reviews from him. I wonder how much his influence had on their acquisition, especially since he's the one who wanted out of the front office and back into the field to do more direct scouting.

[thethe]

Interestingly, all three Mariners who were there when Kiley was working with Fangraphs got absolutely glowing reviews from him. I wonder how much his influence had on their acquisition, especially since he's the one who wanted out of the front office and back into the field to do more direct scouting.

Thats interesting. I was 100% in favor of a total cleansing of the top of the organization. However, I still believe in the scouting network and hope the key guys hang around.

[Southcack77]

They converted a lottery ticket pitcher into a MLB SP with 2 years of control. That is a solid transaction to make, even though Smyly got hurt and Gohara appears to have made huge strides. As usual, trades can’t be judged with hindsight when a lottery ticket.

I’m relieved that you agree.

[Russ2dollas]

Frazier I’m down with is it’s 2 years. 3 max

I hate moose. Are we going to give up another pick for a low obp guy?

I would stay. I would play comargo and Ruiz. Kemp can be cut or only be the worlds most expensive ph.

Use the money to take on a bad deal for talent.

But we won’t do that. Klaw said in chat that aa relives in keeping elite guys and trading the rest. We will make three big trades and get older. I hate it.

[nsacpi]

Klaw said in chat that aa relives in keeping elite guys and trading the rest.

I think that's the way to go. If things go according to plan in a couple years we will have an Elite Six and everyone else will be a supporting player and it really doesn't matter much who those guys are.

[Oklahomabrave]

Jerry Crasnick reports the Braves are our on Ohtani. I’m crushed.

[CyYoung31]

Jerry Crasnick reports the Braves are our on Ohtani. I’m crushed.

Huge mistake. Had an opportunity to learn under Kempkakis.

[nsacpi]

Jerry Crasnick reports the Braves are our on Ohtani. I’m crushed.

Surprised after the strong endorsement by Kawakami-san

[thethe]

I think that's the way to go. If things go according to plan in a couple years we will have an Elite Six and everyone else will be a supporting player and it really doesn't matter much who those guys are.

Guessing yours is Freeman/Acuna/Albies/Ender/Soroka/Gohara?

Am I right?

[nsacpi]

Guessing yours is Freeman/Acuna/Albies/Ender/Soroka/Gohara?

Am I right?

correctamundo

[Hudson2]

I’d add Wright to that to.

[nsacpi]

How about we fill two needs with one trade. Prado (full salary) and Baraclough for a middling prospect. Prado has only 2 years left, so all of those worried about not blocking Riley can rest easy. Baraclough has four years of control left and could pitch the 7th or 8th. Or perhaps even close.

[thethe]

How about we fill two needs with one trade. Prado (full salary) and Baraclough for a middling prospect. Prado has only 2 years left, so all of those worried about not blocking Riley can rest easy. Baraclough has four years of control left and could pitch the 7th or 8th. Or perhaps even close.

Has his name been given as a guy they would use to unload salary?

[nsacpi]

Has his name been given as a guy they would use to unload salary?

I don't think Baraclough has figured in the discussion since he doesn't have a high salary. The idea is to facilitate moving a contract (Prado's) that is under water.

[thethe]

I don't think Baraclough has figured in the discussion since he doesn't have a high salary. The idea is to facilitate moving a contract (Prado's) that is under water.

It's an out of the box idea, which of course is what you're good at. I like it.

[Enscheff]

Frazier I’m down with is it’s 2 years. 3 max

I hate moose. Are we going to give up another pick for a low obp guy?

I would stay. I would play comargo and Ruiz. Kemp can be cut or only be the worlds most expensive ph.

Use the money to take on a bad deal for talent.

But we won’t do that. Klaw said in chat that aa relives in keeping elite guys and trading the rest. We will make three big trades and get older. I hate it.

How much of this comment was from KLaw? Did he say the Braves will make 3 big trades? If so, was it speculation (meaningless from him), or based on a source (slightly less meaningless from him)?

The only truly elite guys (FV 60+) in the minors are Acuna and Wright, so that’s a lot of extra trade chips to make 3 big trades.

If those 3 trades bring back Prado, Ozuna, Odorizzi and a BP arm the Braves are going to get very good very quickly.

[Enscheff]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/nl-east-notes-nationals-galvis-hernandez-braves.html

The Braves have, somewhat surprisingly, “checked around about shortstops,”

Get a SS for 1 year just to send Swanson back to AAA for development?

Sign Cozart and use Swanson as trade bait?

The same slow market that would allow the Braves to acquire a SS for a reasonable cost will also make the return on Swanson be underwhelming, so I can’t imagine the idea is to trade him.

[thethe]

That's a damming report. Basically AA saying the braves bungled Swanson.

[jpx7]

That's a damming report. Basically AA saying the braves bungled Swanson.

We already knew that, though, so it can't be that damning.

[Tapate50]

That's a damming report. Basically AA saying the braves bungled Swanson.


We already knew that, though, so it can't be that damning.

Damn

[Russ2dollas]

How much of this comment was from KLaw? Did he say the Braves will make 3 big trades? If so, was it speculation (meaningless from him), or based on a source (slightly less meaningless from him)?

The only truly elite guys (FV 60+) in the minors are Acuna and Wright, so that’s a lot of extra trade chips to make 3 big trades.

If those 3 trades bring back Prado, Ozuna, Odorizzi and a BP arm the Braves are going to get very good very quickly.

All Klaw said was that aa believes in keeping the elite and moving the rest for the mlb club

[Chico]

If we’re looking in to Cozart I’d think it would be for 3B, but it would be a good insurance plan if Dansby does struggle.

I’d like to look at Neil Walker for the same reason. If he could play 3B and be able to move to 2B with Albies to SS if needed that would provide some value. He also played some 1B last year.

Regardless, I like the idea of having some guys who will give us some options.

We also need to find another super sub.

[thewupk]

We already knew that, though, so it can't be that damning.

Yeah it's been pretty obvious

[thethe]

I was for him getting called up. He played well in 2016 but clearly there were things he still had to learn.

[Southcack77]

That's a damming report. Basically AA saying the braves bungled Swanson.

That's not exactly edgy or out there.

They promoted someone who wasn't hitting AA pitching.

They should have sent him down and kept him down last season to at least get back the year of control they threw away. But instead they brought him after a few days. Pretty much bungled all around.

[nsacpi]

They promoted someone who wasn't hitting AA pitching.



For some reason, people find it convenient to forget that. He was called up after 377 PAs in AA in which he posted a .261/.342/.402 slash line. With a fairly normal-looking BABIP of .309. That's not bad. But it also was not the kind of performance that called for aggressive promotion. And then there is the whole service time matter, which is not trivial

[Chico]

I'm not convinced yet this is the reason we're looking at SS (if in fact we really are). It could be to make one a 3B or we could be looking for a super sub.

But, I do have a question on service time. If we decided to start Swanson in AAA what would the benefits be on his service time? I know the clock has started, but how could we manipulate the system without keeping him down there the whole season?

[Deester11]

I was for him getting called up. He played well in 2016 but clearly there were things he still had to learn.

I was totally against it due to Albies performing better and there wasn't a need to have him in the majors. Another year to develop with Albies would have been ideal.

[Enscheff]

That's a damming report. Basically AA saying the braves bungled Swanson.

Remember when folks on this board said that very thing, and we were told the FO knew what they were doing? Remember when we went round and round about wasting Swanson's value, and all the pozzies said it was no big deal?

Remember when pozzies were ever right about anything? No? Me neither.

[mfree80]

Remember when folks on this board said that very thing, and we were told the FO knew what they were doing? Remember when we went round and round about wasting Swanson's value, and all the pozzies said it was no big deal?

Remember when pozzies were ever right about anything? No? Me neither.

Wait... I thought you had declared yourself to be a Pozzie now.:elefant:

[Chico]

DOB says the Braves are looking at shortstops who can be a supersub.

http://www.myajc.com/sports/baseball/braves-look-for-shortstop-but-not-replace-swanson/Yqo5r5mYpIsTyhDQkWGkVL/

[Enscheff]

DOB says the Braves are looking at shortstops who can be a supersub.

http://www.myajc.com/sports/baseball/braves-look-for-shortstop-but-not-replace-swanson/Yqo5r5mYpIsTyhDQkWGkVL/

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=0

There's your list of SS FAs. Cozart and junk.

With Albies, Swanson and Camargo all capable of playing SS, why exactly do they need a super sub?

[clvclv]

DOB says the Braves are looking at shortstops who can be a supersub.

http://www.myajc.com/sports/baseball/braves-look-for-shortstop-but-not-replace-swanson/Yqo5r5mYpIsTyhDQkWGkVL/

Time to fire AA - what an idiot. How stupid do you need to be to keep from blocking a *hitty prospect like Riley?!?!?

[Enscheff]

Time to fire AA - what an idiot. How stupid do you need to be to keep from blocking a *hitty prospect like Riley?!?!?

About as stupid as someone who thinks MAdams is worth Odorizzi straight up?

[Tapate50]

Time to see if Camargo can play

[Chico]

I'm not sure what to make of this article. I tend to be skeptical of everything quoted and written this tme of the year, but the one thing that seems to be a constant with AA since the beginning remarks has been a focus on defense.
Looking at the roster Markakis and Kemp are the obvious choices to upgrade. Acuna will take one spot, but LF could be where he looks to get his run producer.
He may decide to let Camargo have a shot and evaluate Riley another year if he can upgrade in LF. I think Camargo is more valuable as a supersub and I'd rather address 3B this offseason and flip Riley. However, if he can move Kemp and Markakis he could find a legit middle of the order LF'er easier than he could find a legit middle of the order 3B.

[clvclv]

An out-there thought on a slow afternoon...

Since AA has no particular attachment to Swanson, I wonder if he'd consider moving Albies back to SS and dealing Dansby. If the Royals go full-blown rebuild, has anyone seen enough out of Whit Merrifield to be interested in him at 2B? What about making a move for Danny Duffy? (Not that Dansby would be part of an offer for either - maybe he's dealt in some other trade.)

[bravesfanMatt]

Why would you trade Swanson now. What do you plan to get for him.

[Chico]

This is not the time to trade Swanson. His value is at its lowest right now and the market is ridiculously thin for shortstops.

[clvclv]

Why would you trade Swanson now. What do you plan to get for him.

I have no idea - simply an open-ended question. I have no idea if someone might be more sold on him than AA might be - there are obviously plenty of people here who would move him.

[clvclv]

This is not the time to trade Swanson. His value is at its lowest right now and the market is ridiculously thin for shortstops.

Part of the reason I ask - the recent article said they weren't looking to replace him, but we know how that goes.

(Like I said - slow afternoon.)

[bravesfanforlife88]

An out-there thought on a slow afternoon...

Since AA has no particular attachment to Swanson, I wonder if he'd consider moving Albies back to SS and dealing Dansby. If the Royals go full-blown rebuild, has anyone seen enough out of Whit Merrifield to be interested in him at 2B? What about making a move for Danny Duffy? (Not that Dansby would be part of an offer for either - maybe he's dealt in some other trade.)

If we considered trading Swanson, I’d build a package around him to the rays for Longoria/Odorizzi. Then have albies at SS Comargo at 2b.

Inciarte Cf
Albies ss
Freeman 1b
Longoria 3b
Kemp lf
Markakis rf
Flowers c
Camargo 2b

Teheran
Odorizzi
Folty
Newcomb
Gohara/freid

[Enscheff]

It would be monumentally stupid to sell low on Swanson now. Even dumber than promoting him as early as the Braves did.

But not dumber than thinking they can get Odorizzi for MAdams.

[CyYoung31]

It would be monumentally stupid to sell low on Swanson now. Even dumber than promoting him as early as the Braves did.

But not dumber than thinking they can get Odorizzi for MAdams.

Probably not Odorizzi, but definitely Chris Archer.

[biggentleben]

For some reason, people find it convenient to forget that. He was called up after 377 PAs in AA in which he posted a .261/.342/.402 slash line. With a fairly normal-looking BABIP of .309. That's not bad. But it also was not the kind of performance that called for aggressive promotion. And then there is the whole service time matter, which is not trivial

Worse, he looked absolutely spent on the field at the time. He was dragging HARD when he was called up. The call up lit a fire under him again, but that is like downing a cup of coffee to get a few more hours of work rather than resting. You don't get the sleep you need in the end and pay for it down the road eventually.

[biggentleben]

Probably not Odorizzi, but definitely Chris Archer.

....I'd offer more for Odorizzi than Archer. Not what's discussed here, but Archer is well overrated.

[Enscheff]

....I'd offer more for Odorizzi than Archer. Not what's discussed here, but Archer is well overrated.

Noted

[JohnAdcox]

But not dumber than thinking they can get Odorizzi for MAdams.

Might be time to think about letting that one go now, mate. It's the holiday season, after all.

[Super]

....I'd offer more for Odorizzi than Archer. Not what's discussed here, but Archer is well overrated.

Man, what's your rationale for this? Simply age? Archer has been so, so much better than Odorizzi.

[Enscheff]

Might be time to think about letting that one go now, mate. It's the holiday season, after all.

You’re right, I can probably switch to “Odorizzi is more valuable than Archer” as my go to reference line for the dumbest thing stated on these boards by an “expert blogger” haha.

[biggentleben]

Man, what's your rationale for this? Simply age? Archer has been so, so much better than Odorizzi.

The basis is right here: https://puckettspond.com/2017/10/23/minnesota-twins-target-huge-move/2/

It's a Twins site, but the reasoning is similar no matter the team pursuing him...

[nsacpi]

I always thought Kurt Rambis was more valuable than Larry Bird.

[Enscheff]

I always thought Kurt Rambis was more valuable than Larry Bird.

Sims is more valuable than Gohara because Sims is less likely to get hurt. Therefore, whichever team offers a bucket of balls for him will be the real winners!

[Enscheff]

Now this is an interesting bad contract swap idea...

“Tom: Hear me out.
Matt Kemp for Adrian Gonzalez and Scott Kazmir.
All players subsequently DFA.
Combined AGone and Kaz cost $35.5 million in 2018. Kemp combined salary costs $38 million over the next 2 years.
This trade saves the Braves $2.5 million and gets Kemp off the books a year early.
This trade saves the Dodgers $18 million in their taxable salaries, and gets them underneath the tax threshold. Saving (bare minimum) $9 million in taxed money, and potentially significantly more (10’s of millions) if they stay under the tax threshold in 2018.”

I have to think about how much getting Kemp off the books a year early really matters. Why not just buy out his contract right now?

[jpx7]

Now this is an interesting bad contract swap idea...

“Tom: Hear me out.
Matt Kemp for Adrian Gonzalez and Scott Kazmir.
All players subsequently DFA.
Combined AGone and Kaz cost $35.5 million in 2018. Kemp combined salary costs $38 million over the next 2 years.
This trade saves the Braves $2.5 million and gets Kemp off the books a year early.
This trade saves the Dodgers $18 million in their taxable salaries, and gets them underneath the tax threshold. Saving (bare minimum) $9 million in taxed money, and potentially significantly more (10’s of millions) if they stay under the tax threshold in 2018.”

I have to think about how much getting Kemp off the books a year early really matters. Why not just buy out his contract right now?

Seems like that's a swap titled towards the Dodgers' favor—with their saving at least $9 million, and the Braves only saving $2.5—and thus I'd think they'd have to offer something more to induce/incentivize the trade. As you say, the difference between just cutting Kemp now and not seems pretty trivial from the Braves' perspective (unless they're really that tight on funds).

[Enscheff]

Seems like that's a swap titled towards the Dodgers' favor—with their saving at least $9 million, and the Braves only saving $2.5—and thus I'd think they'd have to offer something more to induce/incentivize the trade. As you say, the difference between just cutting Kemp now and not seems pretty trivial from the Braves' perspective (unless they're really that tight on funds).

I think you’re right. Neither team is probably motivated enough to make that deal

[jpx7]

I think you’re right. Neither team is probably motivated enough to make that deal

That could change, though, if the Marlins become desperate enough to move Stanton (and he persists in vetoing non-Dodgers trades) that they're willing to pretty much give him away—in which case the primary impediment for LA would be LT concerns. Still seems unlikely, since any incentive for the Braves would end up essentially being an acquisition-cost for Stanton—though perhaps the Marlins' desperation could be parlayed into a three-way where they take Kemp, the Braves take Gonzalez/Kazmir and marginal prospects from the Marlins, and the Dodgers receive Stanton.

Just spit-balling, but under some form of that scenario, I'd think the Braves would be better off cutting Gonzalez, but keeping Kazmir around for the final year of his deal and trying him out in the bullpen.

[Enscheff]

I currently have the Braves at ~$88M for 2018.

If they are going to buy out Kemp's contract and push all his money to this year, that puts the Braves at $106M.

If the Braves total payroll is approximately $110M as I predicted, that would explain their inability to accept Headley for free.

That would explain why they had to shed every scrap of payroll possible this offseason.

That would explain why AA said, "we have money to make additions during the season".

That would explain why the Braves have been unable to add BP arms making $7M-$10M per year.

As of right now, I expect an announcement that Kemp is released and the Braves are going to buy out his last 2 years.

[JxnMissFan]

I currently have the Braves at ~$88M for 2018.

If they are going to buy out Kemp's contract and push all his money to this year, that puts the Braves at $106M.

If the Braves total payroll is approximately $110M as I predicted, that would explain their inability to accept Headley for free.

That would explain why they had to shed every scrap of payroll possible this offseason.

That would explain why AA said, "we have money to make additions during the season".

That would explain why the Braves have been unable to add BP arms making $7M-$10M per year.

As of right now, I expect an announcement that Kemp is released and the Braves are going to buy out his last 2 years.

What are the advantages of buying him out other than accelerating the money coming off the books.

[Enscheff]

What are the advantages of buying him out other than accelerating the money coming off the books.

Use the payroll during a non-contending year so there is money available in the year they might be a contender is really the only benefit. It is logically a better use of funds if they are punting 2018.

[50PoundHead]

What are the advantages of buying him out other than accelerating the money coming off the books.

Risk of lawsuits from fans poking their own eyes out from watching him play defense would go down dramatically.

[Horsehide Harry]

Use the payroll during a non-contending year so there is money available in the year they might be a contender is really the only benefit. It is logically a better use of funds if they are punting 2018.

But if they are punting 2018, it isn't logical to keep Teheran, Inciarte, Folty maybe even Freeman given a good enough return.

Sitting on the sidelines to give the young guys a year to get older also makes the not so young guys a year older. Being good short term is about coalescing talent together at the right time. Being good long term is about coalescing talent together at the right time then supplementing it at the right times as cogs wear out, move on or become too expensive.

[DirkPiggler]

I currently have the Braves at ~$88M for 2018.

If they are going to buy out Kemp's contract and push all his money to this year, that puts the Braves at $106M.

If the Braves total payroll is approximately $110M as I predicted, that would explain their inability to accept Headley for free.

That would explain why they had to shed every scrap of payroll possible this offseason.

That would explain why AA said, "we have money to make additions during the season".

That would explain why the Braves have been unable to add BP arms making $7M-$10M per year.

As of right now, I expect an announcement that Kemp is released and the Braves are going to buy out his last 2 years.

This brings up something I've wondered about in the past. I'm quoting you, but the question is for anyone who might know.

If an MLB team is inclined to buy out a contract in this manner, are they obligated to pay the entire gross amount, or can they write a check for the present value of the total? It wouldn't be significant for a short term deal like Kemp, but assume the team owes a player 4 years at $20MM per, and can find no one who will take him in a trade. Obviously they could choose to pay him at the stated terms over four years, but if they chose to pay him the full amount all at once (maybe they had a lot of free payroll space), would they be able to discount the sum back to present value? In this example, assuming a discount rate of 6% and lump sum annual payments over 4 years, paying him future value would knock off about $11,000,000 off of the total amount.

[Southcack77]

This brings up something I've wondered about in the past. I'm quoting you, but the question is for anyone who might know.

If an MLB team is inclined to buy out a contract in this manner, are they obligated to pay the entire gross amount, or can they write a check for the present value of the total? It wouldn't be significant for a short term deal like Kemp, but assume the team owes a player 4 years at $20MM per, and can find no one who will take him in a trade. Obviously they could choose to pay him at the stated terms over four years, but if they chose to pay him the full amount all at once (maybe they had a lot of free payroll space), would they be able to discount the sum back to present value? In this example, assuming a discount rate of 6% and lump sum annual payments over 4 years, paying him future value would knock off about $11,000,000 off of the total amount.

that is good question. I would guess that since there is no salary cap the negotiation as to the buyout terms would be entirely between the team and the player. But I wonder what the rules would be regarding the luxury tax would be if that was an issue.

[Southcack77]

But if they are punting 2018, it isn't logical to keep Teheran, Inciarte, Folty maybe even Freeman given a good enough return.

Sitting on the sidelines to give the young guys a year to get older also makes the not so young guys a year older. Being good short term is about coalescing talent together at the right time. Being good long term is about coalescing talent together at the right time then supplementing it at the right times as cogs wear out, move on or become too expensive.

Sure there is. All of those players will be under contract in 2019. It would be easier to contend in 2019 without having to completely reconstruct the lineup.

[mfree80]

This brings up something I've wondered about in the past. I'm quoting you, but the question is for anyone who might know.

If an MLB team is inclined to buy out a contract in this manner, are they obligated to pay the entire gross amount, or can they write a check for the present value of the total? It wouldn't be significant for a short term deal like Kemp, but assume the team owes a player 4 years at $20MM per, and can find no one who will take him in a trade. Obviously they could choose to pay him at the stated terms over four years, but if they chose to pay him the full amount all at once (maybe they had a lot of free payroll space), would they be able to discount the sum back to present value? In this example, assuming a discount rate of 6% and lump sum annual payments over 4 years, paying him future value would knock off about $11,000,000 off of the total amount.

I don't know the answer, but if I were him, a retirement plan of... say $2M per year for the next 20 or so years might be pretty attractive. (in addition to investments he has likely made over his career)

[DirkPiggler]

I don't know the answer, but if I were him, a retirement plan of... say $2M per year for the next 20 or so years might be pretty attractive. (in addition to investments he has likely made over his career)

Kemp could be our Bobby Bonilla.

[Enscheff]

Now this is an interesting bad contract swap idea...

“Tom: Hear me out.
Matt Kemp for Adrian Gonzalez and Scott Kazmir.
All players subsequently DFA.
Combined AGone and Kaz cost $35.5 million in 2018. Kemp combined salary costs $38 million over the next 2 years.
This trade saves the Braves $2.5 million and gets Kemp off the books a year early.
This trade saves the Dodgers $18 million in their taxable salaries, and gets them underneath the tax threshold. Saving (bare minimum) $9 million in taxed money, and potentially significantly more (10’s of millions) if they stay under the tax threshold in 2018.”

I have to think about how much getting Kemp off the books a year early really matters. Why not just buy out his contract right now?

Remember when this guy posted this question and we wrote it off as not beneficial enough for the Dodgers to be realistic?

Turns out the Braves got any even better deal out of it.

[thewupk]

Remember when this guy posted this question and we wrote it off as not beneficial enough for the Dodgers to be realistic?

Turns out the Braves got any even better deal out of it.

That guy posts on braves-nation.com need to get the recruitment team on him and a few others from that site

[mfree80]

Remember when this guy posted this question and we wrote it off as not beneficial enough for the Dodgers to be realistic?

Turns out the Braves got any even better deal out of it.

And there is all the proof we need that AA comes to this board for ideas....:rock::eusa_dance:

[Chico]

So the question now is what's next? I have no idea. Are we done or are we addressing the elephant in the room so we can move on.

I would be very dissapointed if we're going in to the season with Tyler Flowers as our cleanup hitter, Camargo as our 3B, and Lane Adams as our starring LF'er.

I can see the rationale behind it and it makes smart business sense, but I'm thinking the Braves are going to lose a lot of fans is they punt again after everything that has happened and the 2nd year in the park. I doubt I'd go to any games this year. I'm sure that would be the mindset of many fans. Surely someone has told AA how fickle Atlanta fans are?

[nsacpi]

So the question now is what's next? I have no idea. Are we done or are we addressing the elephant in the room so we can move on.

I would be very dissapointed if we're going in to the season with Tyler Flowers as our cleanup hitter, Camargo as our 3B, and Lane Adams as our starring LF'er.

I can see the rationale behind it and it makes smart business sense, but I'm thinking the Braves are going to lose a lot of fans is they punt again after everything that has happened and the 2nd year in the park. I doubt I'd go to any games this year. I'm sure that would be the mindset of many fans. Surely someone has told AA how fickle Atlanta fans are?

The opening day lineup as it currently stands is:

1. Inciarte CF
2. Albies 2B
3. Freeman 1B
4. Flowers/Suzuki C
5. Markakis RF
6. Camargo 3B
7. Garcia or Adams LF
8. Swanson SS

When Acuna gets called up, I think it will initially look like this:
1. Inciarte
2. Albies
3. Freeman
4. Flowers/Suzuki
5. Markakis
6. Acuna
7. Camargo
8. Swanson

I would add a left handed bat (at about 4M), who can be our primary pinch hitter and also platoon with either Garcia or Adams in left during the period before Acuna is called up.

[Chico]

I don't know what we're going to do. If it were me I'd still do my original plan and trade Markakis and trade for couple of guys like Grichuk and Joc. So you could have the corners convered until Acuna is called up and Joc or Grichuk becomes your 4th OF'er. Admittedly I have no idea what it would take to trade for those guys or similar players. Maybe you just keep Markakis and trade for one of those guys who can play a corner and move to 4th OF once Acuna is called up.

I'm not sure we keep Markakis though. It doesn't fit the defense narrative AA has spit from the beginning.

[Super]

I wonder if we could get Kipnis and play him at 3B. Could be a buy-low guy.

[clvclv]

I wonder if we could get Kipnis and play him at 3B. Could be a buy-low guy.

How do you plan to pay for him?

[50PoundHead]

I don't know what we're going to do. If it were me I'd still do my original plan and trade Markakis and trade for couple of guys like Grichuk and Joc. So you could have the corners convered until Acuna is called up and Joc or Grichuk becomes your 4th OF'er. Admittedly I have no idea what it would take to trade for those guys or similar players. Maybe you just keep Markakis and trade for one of those guys who can play a corner and move to 4th OF once Acuna is called up.

I'm not sure we keep Markakis though. It doesn't fit the defense narrative AA has spit from the beginning.

I think Markakis is okay in LF where his arm would play a bit better. That said, I'm curious to see what the Dodgers do with Joc Pederson and what his market will be if they try to move him. He's an interesting player especially if he can maintain his improved contact rate.

[Chico]

I think Markakis is okay in LF where his arm would play a bit better. That said, I'm curious to see what the Dodgers do with Joc Pederson and what his market will be if they try to move him. He's an interesting player especially if he can maintain his improved contact rate.

Yes, Nick could be ok in LF, but if we get a major league caliber corner OF'er to hold down the fort while Acuna is down then we have Nick on the bench when Acuna comes up. That's partly why I think we trade him. He's well respected and I don't see Snit sitting him on the bench. We should trade him to a team where he can play every day for the season. That also means we have to get 2 OF's, but I think that's what we should do anyways to hedge our bets.

[Super]

How do you plan to pay for him?

Perhaps have Cleveland eat some of the salary for a better prospect return?

[clvclv]

I don't know what we're going to do. If it were me I'd still do my original plan and trade Markakis and trade for couple of guys like Grichuk and Joc. So you could have the corners convered until Acuna is called up and Joc or Grichuk becomes your 4th OF'er. Admittedly I have no idea what it would take to trade for those guys or similar players. Maybe you just keep Markakis and trade for one of those guys who can play a corner and move to 4th OF once Acuna is called up.

I'm not sure we keep Markakis though. It doesn't fit the defense narrative AA has spit from the beginning.

AA already gave us the moon by figuring out how to unload Kemp - asking him to be able to move both (without having to eat a fair amount of Nick's money) is probably asking a little too much.

I wonder if DMGM and AA are chummy enough that we could ship them Markakis and an arm for Herrera? That would save you ~ $2.2 million. Then you could trade Vizcaino for Grichuk. That would save you another $900,000. At that point, you'd be at ~$111,675,000.

You'd then be in a position to try to work something out with the Marlins for Prado/Barraclough or sign Nunez and another OF to 1 year deals.

[UNCBlue012]

https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/942812144646742016

[clvclv]

Perhaps have Cleveland eat some of the salary for a better prospect return?

Not interested personally - at this point, I think AA's looking for just about every way to hold onto the prospects (rightfully so IMO) unless a deal for Yelich/Archer/Fulmer drops into his lap.

I had given some thought to trying that with Kipnis earlier in the winter, but now that AA's been able to clear the books for next year, I wouldn't add a significant salary that doesn't expire after this season unless you were getting an "Ace".

[Chico]

https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/942812144646742016

The Marlins have handled things so badly that they might as well do a complete tear down. They are stuck betwen a rock and a hard place. Nobody wants to be there, but if you trade players cause they're not happy then every player is going to request a trade and then you've lost the team and any leverage you may have had with other teams.

I say go ahead and blow it up

[50PoundHead]

Not interested personally - at this point, I think AA's looking for just about every way to hold onto the prospects (rightfully so IMO) unless a deal for Yelich/Archer/Fulmer drops into his lap.

I had given some thought to trying that with Kipnis earlier in the winter, but now that AA's been able to clear the books for next year, I wouldn't add a significant salary that doesn't expire after this season unless you were getting an "Ace".

I agree with this sentiment. It would be different if the Braves projected as an 85-win team with a better than average shot at reaching the playoffs, but with minor league depth so thin, I think he is likely tilting toward riding through the year with what we have in the minors.

[Hudson2]

A Yelich trade would be geared more towards 2019 and beyond then being a playoff team next year, but with him on the team it would put us a lot closer than we are now. If a trade for him comes up I hope that AA pulls the trigger. It will definitely weaken our farm system but it wouldn’t kill it. We would still have a very strong minor league to fall back on especially with the 8th pick coming.

[Southcack77]

A Yelich trade would be geared more towards 2019 and beyond then being a playoff team next year, but with him on the team it would put us a lot closer than we are now. If a trade for him comes up I hope that AA pulls the trigger. It will definitely weaken our farm system but it wouldn’t kill it. We would still have a very strong minor league to fall back on especially with the 8th pick coming.

Yelich would be a "win soon" move.

[Hudson2]

Yelich is signed for 5 more years. And the money would be there for an extension after that I’m sure.

[bravesguy]

I may be in the minority, but I don't see this as a time to sit and wait on 2019. It is being talked about like AA is now waiting with his pile of $$ on the FA class next year. While that sounds exciting, when have the Braves ever (in recent times) attracked big time FAs? Why would Harper or Manchado or Dondlason come to the ATL? I think that is the pipe dream that leaves us holding the bag. Remeber Derek Lowe?

I feel like now that he has made financial flexibility, he has to use the minors to strike on trade options with long term deals.

Yelich is the obvious choice...But with an outfield of Yelich (5 years), Ender (5 Years), Acuna (for life) we are set at OF for a while. Yelich would be the replacement of Markakis this year (salary wise).

We then need to find a 3B of the near and long term future. Could you talk to a Manchado about an trade extension. If you are willing to pay him 30+ x 10 years next summer, how about you agree this year on the extension and trade for him. The talk is a couple SP could get it done. How about a Allard, Anderson, Fried package? Maybe not, but I trust something is out there.

The real financial flexibility we have is Ender, Albies, Acuna, Gohara, Newk, Swanson, Carmargo, Allard, Soroka, Wright, etc will not make any money for 5 years.

Don't let financial flexibility lull you into thinking ATL became the destination for bi time talent. Never has been, never will be.

[bravesfanMatt]

I may be in the minority, but I don't see this as a time to sit and wait on 2019. It is being talked about like AA is now waiting with his pile of $$ on the FA class next year. While that sounds exciting, when have the Braves ever (in recent times) attracked big time FAs? Why would Harper or Manchado or Dondlason come to the ATL? I think that is the pipe dream that leaves us holding the bag. Remeber Derek Lowe?

I feel like now that he has made financial flexibility, he has to use the minors to strike on trade options with long term deals.

Yelich is the obvious choice...But with an outfield of Yelich (5 years), Ender (5 Years), Acuna (for life) we are set at OF for a while. Yelich would be the replacement of Markakis this year (salary wise).

We then need to find a 3B of the near and long term future. Could you talk to a Manchado about an trade extension. If you are willing to pay him 30+ x 10 years next summer, how about you agree this year on the extension and trade for him. The talk is a couple SP could get it done. How about a Allard, Anderson, Fried package? Maybe not, but I trust something is out there.

The real financial flexibility we have is Ender, Albies, Acuna, Gohara, Newk, Swanson, Carmargo, Allard, Soroka, Wright, etc will not make any money for 5 years.

Don't let financial flexibility lull you into thinking ATL became the destination for bi time talent. Never has been, never will be.

the south has never cared for that kind of talent. Going to take some time for us to get used to it

[Hudson2]

Yelich is now requesting a meeting with the FO to let them know he is unhappy per mlbtraderumors

[CrimeDog247]

Wouldn't you rather wait and get Charlie Blackmon in 2019 to have a Acuna, Inciarte, and Blackmon OF. Put someone like Donaldson at 3B and trade for young controllable arm. Yelich is a good piece, but Blackmon and Donaldson make our lineup a lot better. We will have plenty of money to acquire both. Freeman deserves to play with stars that can help him carry a team and God knows we deserve to watch a star rich team again.

[bravesguy]

Wouldn't you rather wait and get Charlie Blackmon in 2019 to have a Acuna, Inciarte, and Blackmon OF. Put someone like Donaldson at 3B and trade for young controllable arm. Yelich is a good piece, but Blackmon and Donaldson make our lineup a lot better. We will have plenty of money to acquire both. Freeman deserves to play with stars that can help him carry a team and God knows we deserve to watch a star rich team again.

Sure...if you think there is any way that the Braves could get both.

There are currently 12 teams with $80M+ available after next season. Who do you think they will choose to play for? A team with hopes of getting good or a NYY, Boston, LAA, LAD, CHI, STL, HOU, etc.

The key to the Braves success has to be jumping out in front with creative ways of getting stars (that you do not grow yourself). Think back amougst all of the history of the Braves, name the stars who came here to sign as FA in their prime. I can think of 1 - Maddox. i know you may think of Upton, but what a cluster that turned into.

[msstate7]

Yelich is now requesting a meeting with the FO to let them know he is unhappy per mlbtraderumors

Obviously any team would love him, but who are the realistic teams that would pursue him?

[Hudson2]

Obviously any team would love him, but who are the realistic teams that would pursue him?

We would def be one of them.

[Hudson2]

Wouldn't you rather wait and get Charlie Blackmon in 2019 to have a Acuna, Inciarte, and Blackmon OF. Put someone like Donaldson at 3B and trade for young controllable arm. Yelich is a good piece, but Blackmon and Donaldson make our lineup a lot better. We will have plenty of money to acquire both. Freeman deserves to play with stars that can help him carry a team and God knows we deserve to watch a star rich team again.

No, bc Blackmon is 31 and his numbers outside of Coors aren’t that great. Yelich is the better player going forward no doubt. And his contract is a huge plus.

[Southcack77]

I may be in the minority, but I don't see this as a time to sit and wait on 2019. It is being talked about like AA is now waiting with his pile of $$ on the FA class next year. While that sounds exciting, when have the Braves ever (in recent times) attracked big time FAs? Why would Harper or Manchado or Dondlason come to the ATL? I think that is the pipe dream that leaves us holding the bag. Remeber Derek Lowe?

I feel like now that he has made financial flexibility, he has to use the minors to strike on trade options with long term deals.

Yelich is the obvious choice...But with an outfield of Yelich (5 years), Ender (5 Years), Acuna (for life) we are set at OF for a while. Yelich would be the replacement of Markakis this year (salary wise).

We then need to find a 3B of the near and long term future. Could you talk to a Manchado about an trade extension. If you are willing to pay him 30+ x 10 years next summer, how about you agree this year on the extension and trade for him. The talk is a couple SP could get it done. How about a Allard, Anderson, Fried package? Maybe not, but I trust something is out there.

The real financial flexibility we have is Ender, Albies, Acuna, Gohara, Newk, Swanson, Carmargo, Allard, Soroka, Wright, etc will not make any money for 5 years.

Don't let financial flexibility lull you into thinking ATL became the destination for bi time talent. Never has been, never will be.


The best point here is why would the free agents choose Atlanta over other options and that is really what it might come down to as much as money. Atlanta will really need the young players to play well to help them pitch this offseason.

Even so, with the Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies all eyeing this free agent class (along with the Nets, I would think) the odds of landing premium FA may be low absent an overpay.

[CrimeDog247]

Sure...if you think there is any way that the Braves could get both.

There are currently 12 teams with $80M+ available after next season. Who do you think they will choose to play for? A team with hopes of getting good or a NYY, Boston, LAA, LAD, CHI, STL, HOU, etc.

The key to the Braves success has to be jumping out in front with creative ways of getting stars (that you do not grow yourself). Think back amougst all of the history of the Braves, name the stars who came here to sign as FA in their prime. I can think of 1 - Maddox. i know you may think of Upton, but what a cluster that turned into.

Blackmon is from GA, I like our chances of signing him. Maybe Riley takes over 3B by then and we can put money towards pitching.

[Southcack77]

Blackmon is from GA, I like our chances of signing him. Maybe Riley takes over 3B by then and we can put money towards pitching.

His career home/away splits are sobering.

[Eyeman]

Bravesguy, you have to go back further to find Braves teams trying to rebuild. I know Wren had a hard time, but way back in the 70s and 80s, we had no problem signing bigtime players. Andy Messersmith's signing actually is often cited as changing the free agent markets at the time.

With our young core, I'm sure AA with have not issues finding free agents to sign. He just has to do a much better job than Wren did.

[Russ2dollas]

Braves seem higher on Riley than anyone. By orders of magnitude

I’d rather get machado and if Riley is good put him in lf or 1b.

I did read that mocha do wants to move to ss.

[Hudson2]

If Riley has a monster season and shows he’s ready and we had a legitimate shot at Machado then Swanson would make a good trade piece. Not that we’ll have a shot at Machado

[Enscheff]

Folks act like the Braves are in some unique position to sign these premium FAs. Every available FA is available because some team let them go and needs to replace them.

All the Braves have done is set themselves up to bid on the scraps after the big boys spend a combined $5 trillion on FAs. When the $200M-$400M contracts are finally doled out, the Braves can step in and grab a $100M FA, or a couple in the $50M - $75M range.

[Oklahomabrave]

Folks act like the Braves are in some unique position to sign these premium FAs. Every available FA is available because some team let them go and needs to replace them.

All the Braves have done is set themselves up to bid on the scraps after the big boys spend a combined $5 trillion on FAs. When the $200M-$400M contracts are finally doled out, the Braves can step in and grab a $100M FA, or a couple in the $50M - $75M range.
We could be players for Donaldson, Puig, Grandal, Blackmon, Pollock, Dozier. Plenty of good value, which I’d prefer over a 10 year mega deal.

[Braves1976]

I would go for Yelich depending on the price and I'd be more willing to trade Folty and others than Allard, Wright or Soroka. Gohara would also be a no go for me depending on his medicals (Cincy turned him down in a trade for Cozart a year ago due to medicals). Also, no way would I consider trading Acuna in such a trade.

That said, I think you could get something done with Yelich if willing to move Folty and others, I would even consider moving Newcomb or Teheran in such a trade. Though no all three of course. I'd also listen on Fried, Anderson, etc. in a trade for Yelich.

[Enscheff]

We could be players for Donaldson, Puig, Grandal, Blackmon, Pollock, Dozier. Plenty of good value, which I’d prefer over a 10 year mega deal.

I think you’ve pretty much nailed the aisle the Braves will be shopping in. They won’t be getting value though...that’s the exact opposite of what teams get on the FA market.

[Oklahomabrave]

I think you’ve pretty much nailed the aisle the Braves will be shopping in. They won’t be getting value though...that’s the exact opposite of what teams get on the FA market.

You’re right, was thinking still valuable players. Obviously FA isn’t particularly cost efficient.

[mfree80]

Folks act like the Braves are in some unique position to sign these premium FAs. Every available FA is available because some team let them go and needs to replace them.

All the Braves have done is set themselves up to bid on the scraps after the big boys spend a combined $5 trillion on FAs. When the $200M-$400M contracts are finally doled out, the Braves can step in and grab a $100M FA, or a couple in the $50M - $75M range.

The $100M scraps often provide better return for the $ than the $300M guys. Sometimes they work out, but the number of bad contracts teams are always trying to shed is a testament to how often they don't.

[Enscheff]

The $100M scraps often provide better return for the $ than the $300M guys. Sometimes they work out, but the number of bad contracts teams are always trying to shed is a testament to how often they don't.

The Braves haven’t had much luck with any FA contracts.

No need to try and spin the Braves buying lesser FAs as a good thing. We all get it, pozzy spin and all.

[UNCBlue012]

There's very little doubt that our best, and probably most logical, route will be to trade for a Yelich-type with our assets and then sign a long-term stud pitcher in free agency. May not work, but it's probably the best option.

[Super]

The Braves haven’t had much luck with any FA contracts.


which has precisely nothing to do with FA signings moving forward.

[Chico]

I agree with the sentiment that AA isn't clearing payroll to go big in free agency next year. Everyone is going to get overpaid next year. We're not getting a Machado or Harper for sure. The most likely candidate is Donaldson if he had a good relatonship with AA and he's going to cost a ton and is 32. You're not getting value there.

I think it's just as likely we're clearing payroll to take on different payroll to get value in a player. I'd like to see us take on Chen's contract to get Yellich. He gets 10M this year then jumps up to 20M and 22M over the next 2 years. Yeah he's going to be on the DL most of the time but AA has seen that work in L.A. over the course of the season.

He could take on another oft injured pitcher's salary if it gets value from another player in return as well.

[clvclv]

While I don't think AA's "done", I'd agree he's pretty close to it. He has accomplished the toughest part of what needed to be accomplished right away. I could see a few things happening in the event the right opportunities arise...

1.) A solid right-handed bat (that isn't a defensive liability) is added on the cheap ($5 million range) for one year to start the season in LF. Think Howie Kendrick or Maybin. This will deepen the lineup by keeping Camargo and Swanson down in the 7 and 8 holes. When Acuna's called up, Markakis slides to LF and platoons with him. This obviously strengthens the bench at that point by giving you at least two legitimate pinch-hitters every night at that point (4th OF and backup C).

2.) Now that Boston's out on Hosmer, San Diego may be even more motivated to move Headley. I don't think AA would be inclined to take on his entire salary, but I think the money's there if he could do so without giving up much of a prospect. Maybe they'd be interested in Demeritte's power since they wouldn't be required to place him on their 40-Man Roster until next year at this point. Maybe he'd include a second-tier arm to get them to pay some of the money. I still like the idea of adding Nunez if you could get him on a 1 year/$5 million deal in the event you need to use Camargo at SS, but I'm fine with giving Johan the ABs at 3B this season if you have to. There's always the chance (as unlikely as it is) that Riley blows up out of the gate this season and pushes himself into the picture after the break. AA's never been shy about giving young players a shot when they deserve it, but I'm sure his preference is that that decision doesn't have to be made until next spring.

3.) Upgrade the pen only through trade. Otherwise I think the upgrades are already here. The addition of McCarthy means that Fried can be used out there (at least as long as Brandon's healthy). Kazmir's obviously a wildcard in that role, and you've still got Whitley, Lindgren, and Biddle who could be really good if things go your way. All 5 of those guys are likely better than Brothers and Jackson, and we're liable to see Soroka there late in the season to help manage his innings and keep his clock from starting until 2019.

[Heyward]

I'd trade for Yelich given his contract. Then go after a C or 3B next winter, or a SP.

Wouldnt get into a bidding war for the OF'ers.

[Enscheff]

While I don't think AA's "done", I'd agree he's pretty close to it. He has accomplished the toughest part of what needed to be accomplished right away. I could see a few things happening in the event the right opportunities arise...

1.) A solid right-handed bat (that isn't a defensive liability) is added on the cheap ($5 million range) for one year to start the season in LF. Think Howie Kendrick or Maybin. This will deepen the lineup by keeping Camargo and Swanson down in the 7 and 8 holes. When Acuna's called up, Markakis slides to LF and platoons with him. This obviously strengthens the bench at that point by giving you at least two legitimate pinch-hitters every night at that point (4th OF and backup C).

2.) Now that Boston's out on Hosmer, San Diego may be even more motivated to move Headley. I don't think AA would be inclined to take on his entire salary, but I think the money's there if he could do so without giving up much of a prospect. Maybe they'd be interested in Demeritte's power since they wouldn't be required to place him on their 40-Man Roster until next year at this point. Maybe he'd include a second-tier arm to get them to pay some of the money. I still like the idea of adding Nunez if you could get him on a 1 year/$5 million deal in the event you need to use Camargo at SS, but I'm fine with giving Johan the ABs at 3B this season if you have to. There's always the chance (as unlikely as it is) that Riley blows up out of the gate this season and pushes himself into the picture after the break. AA's never been shy about giving young players a shot when they deserve it, but I'm sure his preference is that that decision doesn't have to be made until next spring.

3.) Upgrade the pen only through trade. Otherwise I think the upgrades are already here. The addition of McCarthy means that Fried can be used out there (at least as long as Brandon's healthy). Kazmir's obviously a wildcard in that role, and you've still got Whitley, Lindgren, and Biddle who could be really good if things go your way. All 5 of those guys are likely better than Brothers and Jackson, and we're liable to see Soroka there late in the season to help manage his innings and keep his clock from starting until 2019.

Wow, this is the first intelligent post I've seen from you in 3 years. Well done!

Must be because you regurgitated ideas I've been stating the last 2 months.

[bravesfanMatt]

Wow, this is the first intelligent post I've seen from you in 3 years. Well done!

Must be because you regurgitated ideas I've been stating the last 2 months.

Holy ****. Did The earth shift off its axis or was that encheff almost complementing clv. Better get in my prepper bunker because something is not right.

[msstate7]

Holy ****. Did The earth shift off its axis or was that encheff almost complementing clv. Better get in my prepper bunker because something is not right.
Complement? He pretty much claimed the credit for clv’s post lol

[bravesfanMatt]

Complement? He pretty much claimed the credit for clv’s post lol

It was as close as it will get.

[Enscheff]

It was as close as it will get.

When the best ideas a guy comes up with are:

- Jenkins for Sale
- MAdams for Odorizzi
- The Braves left DPete and TD off the 40 man roster to gauge trade interest

It's probably best that person stick to regurgitating the ideas of others.

Realizing he is stupid and should stick to rewriting the ideas of others is probably the smartest thing he's done since going into double-wide realty in the South.

[clvclv]

Complement? He pretty much claimed the credit for clv’s post lol

He should.

Oh wait, he's consistently mentioned Maybin and Kendrick (or then again, maybe not - actually the next time will be the first time). He's also been touting Whitley, Lindgren, and Biddle as upgrades to the pen (umm...well...). He's absolutely pitched Demeritte and a second-tier arm for Headley almost every day (except for the fact that we can't afford to add anything since we're "broke").

Really sucks to get caught plagiarizing.

[Enscheff]

He should.

Oh wait, he's consistently mentioned Maybin and Kendrick (or then again, maybe not - actually the next time will be the first time). He's also been touting Whitley, Lindgren, and Biddle as upgrades to the pen (umm...well...). He's absolutely pitched Demeritte and a second-tier arm for Headley almost every day (except for the fact that we can't afford to add anything since we're "broke").

Really sucks to get caught plagiarizing.

The hell...?

I've called for a RHed 4th OFer for about 14 months now. I've talked about a platoon partner for Markakis for weeks. Someone else mentioned Maybin explicitly a few days ago.

I have stated many times Headley is the perfect choice for a 1 year stop gap at 3B, and should cost almost nothing to acquire. Several others came to same conclusion even before the Yankees got Stanton. The Braves can't afford to take the whole contract now though.

Are you saying you came up with the idea that Whitley, Lindgren and Biddle are upgrades for the BP when they are already in the organization? What sense does that even make? Does it even qualify as an idea?

What about your suggestion the Braves spend $50M+ on BP guys like Reed and McGee? Where did that idea go?

I take it back, you aren't even smart enough regurgitate the ideas of others. I'm surprised you were able to pass the 3 week online course that qualifies you for your profession.

Wow...

[bravesfanMatt]

Ok. I feel safe to come out of my bunker. Things seem back to normal now.

[Chico]

With the Sox likely closing in on JD Martinez, I'd be asking what the price for JBJ is.

[msstate7]

With the Sox likely closing in on JD Martinez, I'd be asking what the price for JBJ is.

For LF or move inciarte?

[Chico]

For LF or move inciarte?

For LF

JBJ, Ender, and Acuna would be an extremely good outfield defense.

[Enscheff]

With the Sox likely closing in on JD Martinez, I'd be asking what the price for JBJ is.

I think the plan is to sign JD to play 1b.

[Knucksie]

Complement? He pretty much claimed the credit for clv’s post lol

He takes credit for the sun rising in the east.

[clvclv]

The hell...?

I've called for a RHed 4th OFer for about 14 months now. I've talked about a platoon partner for Markakis for weeks. Someone else mentioned Maybin explicitly a few days ago.

I have stated many times Headley is the perfect choice for a 1 year stop gap at 3B, and should cost almost nothing to acquire. Several others came to same conclusion even before the Yankees got Stanton. The Braves can't afford to take the whole contract now though.

Are you saying you came up with the idea that Whitley, Lindgren and Biddle are upgrades for the BP when they are already in the organization? What sense does that even make? Does it even qualify as an idea?

What about your suggestion the Braves spend $50M+ on BP guys like Reed and McGee? Where did that idea go?

I take it back, you aren't even smart enough regurgitate the ideas of others. I'm surprised you were able to pass the 3 week online course that qualifies you for your profession.

Wow...


Really funny - that was me that mentioned Maybin you genius - first time anyone's brought his name up. I also happen to be the first to mention Kendrick.

You're absolutely right - you're the ONLY person who ever mentioned Headley as a potential fit.

Whether Whitley, Lindgren, and/or Biddle are upgrades from within or not, you certainly haven't mentioned them as such.

Are you the official blackjack dealer for the Trump administration? Facts actually matter everywhere else.

[Enscheff]

Really funny - that was me that mentioned Maybin you genius - first time anyone's brought his name up. I also happen to be the first to mention Kendrick.

You're absolutely right - you're the ONLY person who ever mentioned Headley as a potential fit.

Whether Whitley, Lindgren, and/or Biddle are upgrades from within or not, you certainly haven't mentioned them as such.

Are you the official blackjack dealer for the Trump administration? Facts actually matter everywhere else.

Umm, no. Southcrack first proposed Maybin, and it is a good idea:


The other two interesting ones to me are Cam Maybin and Carlos Gomez.

You even quoted his idea in a subsequent post, so you knew you weren't the first one to come up with the idea.

I never claimed I was the only one calling for Headley, as evidenced by me literally saying, "Several others came to the same conclusion even before the Yankees got Stanton".

What were you saying about facts mattering?

Have you ever produced an idea on your own that wasn't laughably stupid?

[mfree80]

Before you post any opinions, remember that Enscheff remembers everything that has ever been said, who said it an when.... So post with care!:cooter:

[The Chosen One]

Before you post any opinions, remember that Enscheff remembers everything that has ever been said, who said it an when.... So post with care!:cooter:

:cooter:

[clvclv]

I would like officially apologize to Southcack77 for "stealing" his Maybin idea - non-newbies are certainly aware of the fact that I've never in my life been a Cam supporter or fan. Hate that I missed that post - I'd have certainly given it a thumbs-up, liked it or whatever. Won't happen again - I'll make sure to research every post in the history of the board before posting anything that anyone else might have suggested - as soon as I have 18 hours a day to spend here.

Who in the *ell am I kidding - there are one or two more important things happening every once in awhile. Good catch if you posted him as an option before me - just make sure to link it constantly down the road so you get full credit.

We're all well-aware that the only "good" ideas come from the almighty blackjack dealer and everyone else here simply poached them from her - I swear I've met women who are owed years worth of child support who *itch and whine less. At least one can understand their reason for doing so.

Good god man, are you spending the fortune you've told everyone you've made on the Cheetos you eat while sitting on your couch in your drawers and logging every post on this message board??? That's a *elluva lot of money spent on pencils and legal pads. Keep doing what you're doing - the number of references you keep adding to your resume are definitely going to make a difference when you apply to be the "smartest guy who can look *hit up on the internet".

[Horsehide Harry]

So the Orioles are looking for two starting pitchers that they "can control for the next 4-5 years" in exchange for Machado according to the Baltimore Sun. Considering that the Braves might currently have some payroll space and just added McCarthy and potentially Kazmir, would you consider sending them Folty and Newk? Machado certainly fills the short term hole at 3rd and would bring some excitement to 2018 for the casual fan. BUT, if you can't sign him long term then you've paid a steep price. Looking at 2019 finances it certainly looks like the Braves could sign him long term from a compensation standpoint. But then the question is should they? If he has a similar year to 2017 he probably gets a 10 year $250M deal with an opt out after 3 years. If he has a year similar to 2016 he probably gets a 10 year $300M+ deal with an opt out after 3 years. On the one hand, he's the RH bookend bat to pair with Freeman and he can play 3B with pretty excellent defense. OTOH he has been talking about wanting to play short again. I have seen somewhere that he likes Atlanta. But I bet he likes money more.

trading Folty and Newk would put pressure on 2018 from a pitching standpoint. It would mean you would likely start the year: Teheran, McCarthy, Gohara, Fried, Sims/Kazmir

You're probably OK in 2019 and beyond from a SP standpoint unless the farm totally flops.

And you could always flip Machado at the deadline if necessary.

I admit I'm intrigued by adding a 25 YO bookend to pair with Freeman. But I think to do it you would have to be serious about re-signing or extending him with a plan to trade him at the deadline if you can't get it done.

Maybe offer Folty, Newk, Markakis for Machado and see what they say.

CF Inciarte
2B Albies
3B Machado
1B Freeman
C Flowers/Suzuki
RF Cargo on a pillow deal
LF Adams/Acuna
SS Swanson

I guess it depends on how much you believe in the long term of Folty and Newk...

[Enscheff]

So the Orioles are looking for two starting pitchers that they "can control for the next 4-5 years" in exchange for Machado according to the Baltimore Sun. Considering that the Braves might currently have some payroll space and just added McCarthy and potentially Kazmir, would you consider sending them Folty and Newk? Machado certainly fills the short term hole at 3rd and would bring some excitement to 2018 for the casual fan. BUT, if you can't sign him long term then you've paid a steep price. Looking at 2019 finances it certainly looks like the Braves could sign him long term from a compensation standpoint. But then the question is should they? If he has a similar year to 2017 he probably gets a 10 year $250M deal with an opt out after 3 years. If he has a year similar to 2016 he probably gets a 10 year $300M+ deal with an opt out after 3 years. On the one hand, he's the RH bookend bat to pair with Freeman and he can play 3B with pretty excellent defense. OTOH he has been talking about wanting to play short again. I have seen somewhere that he likes Atlanta. But I bet he likes money more.

trading Folty and Newk would put pressure on 2018 from a pitching standpoint. It would mean you would likely start the year: Teheran, McCarthy, Gohara, Fried, Sims/Kazmir

You're probably OK in 2019 and beyond from a SP standpoint unless the farm totally flops.

And you could always flip Machado at the deadline if necessary.

I admit I'm intrigued by adding a 25 YO bookend to pair with Freeman. But I think to do it you would have to be serious about re-signing or extending him with a plan to trade him at the deadline if you can't get it done.

Maybe offer Folty, Newk, Markakis for Machado and see what they say.

CF Inciarte
2B Albies
3B Machado
1B Freeman
C Flowers/Suzuki
RF Cargo on a pillow deal
LF Adams/Acuna
SS Swanson

I guess it depends on how much you believe in the long term of Folty and Newk...

I don’t see the Braves as a realistic destination for Machado, but I do agree that they are a prime candidate to give up 2 pitchers with lots of control.

Machado’s surplus value is probably in the range of $40M+, which lines up very nicely with 2 of Newk/Fried/Folty.

So the logical answer is a 3 team trade. What contender needs 1 year of Machado, and has 1-2 players worth $40M+ they can spare at position of need for the Braves?

Cubs are in on Machado. Maybe something centered around Happ?

Red Sox like him too. Maybe something centered around JBJ if they sign JDM?

Cards would probably like Machado, but I can’t think of a package they could put together that would be good enough.

[Horsehide Harry]

I don’t see the Braves as a realistic destination for Machado, but I do agree that they are a prime candidate to give up 2 pitchers with lots of control.

Machado’s surplus value is probably in the range of $40M+, which lines up very nicely with 2 of Newk/Fried/Folty.

So the logical answer is a 3 team trade. What contender needs 1 year of Machado, and has 1-2 players worth $40M+ they can spare at position of need for the Braves?

Cubs are in on Machado. Maybe something centered around Happ?

Red Sox like him too. Maybe something centered around JBJ if they sign JDM?

Cards would probably like Machado, but I can’t think of a package they could put together that would be good enough.

Cards: Carson Kelly, Jack Flaherty and Delvin Perez. Flaherty replaces one of the arms, Kelly becomes catcher in waiting, Perez slots as a long time potential Swanson replacement

[Jaw]

Happ or JBJ would be fantastic additions. Acquiring Machado would be Teixiera all over again, the Braves would not (and should not) re-sign him.

[Heyward]

I'd make a play for JBJ if he got traded and they got JD.

He's one of the best defensive outfielders i've ever seen. I'd prefer Yelich though.

[Chico]

I’d prefer Yelich over JBJ too. Rusney Castillo had a pretty good year in AAA last year. They just kept him down to avoid going over the luxury tax last year. They plan on going over this year, but I’m sure they’d like to get out of that $38m owed over the next 3 years. Maybe they’d package Castillo and JBJ if they sign JDM. Opens up money and a spot in one trade.

[UNCBlue012]

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/943505257014980609

Wow. The Orioles are in a truly awful spot.

[clvclv]

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/943505257014980609

Wow. The Orioles are in a truly awful spot.

I'd never wish injuries on anybody, but if an owner deserves to get screwed it's Angelos. I've felt bad for Orioles fans for years - having him as your owner is worse than having Liberty.